EURNZD - Seize Profitable Opportunity with Anti-Shark PatternEURNZD is currently exhibiting the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) coupled with the presence of a significant Trendline, indicating potential bearish momentum on the horizon. This analysis delves into the technical factors influencing the currency pair's movement and proposes strategic entry and exit points for traders to consider.
Pattern Identification:
Anti-Shark Harmonic (XABCD) with Trendline Confluence
The observed Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) on the 1-hour time frame suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. This pattern comprises distinct points: X, A, B, C, and D, with Point D marking a crucial juncture for market participants. Additionally, the convergence of a Trendline further emphasizes the significance of Point D as a potential turning point.
Key Levels:
Resistance Identified
Point D aligns strategically with a key resistance level, reinforcing the likelihood of bearish pressure manifesting from this point. Traders should remain vigilant as price action nears this critical area, as it often serves as a catalyst for significant market movements.
Entry Strategy:
Entry: 1.80900
Stop Loss: 1.81370
A prudent entry point at 1.80900 aligns with the anticipated bearish momentum following the completion of the Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern. To mitigate risk, a stop loss set at 1.81370 provides a buffer against adverse price fluctuations, safeguarding capital in the event of unexpected market developments.
Take Profit Targets:
TP-1: 1.80400
TP-2: 1.79900
TP-3: 1.79436
Strategically positioned take profit targets offer traders opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements. These targets, set at 1.80400, 1.79900, and 1.79436 respectively, correspond with key support levels where price action may encounter barriers or exhibit signs of reversal.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the technical analysis of EURNZD on the 1-hour time frame indicates a favorable setup for bearish trading opportunities. With the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern and confluence with a Trendline, coupled with the proximity to a key resistance level, traders are advised to consider short positions with careful risk management. By adhering to the outlined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, traders can navigate the market dynamics with greater confidence and precision.
Community ideas
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Deciphering the DistinctionsCryptocurrencies have revolutionized the financial landscape, with Bitcoin and Ethereum emerging as two prominent players shaping the digital economy. Despite sharing the common ground of blockchain technology, each offers distinct features and functionalities, underscoring the need to understand their differences.
Introduction to Bitcoin
Bitcoin, introduced in 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, heralded the dawn of decentralized digital currencies. Its primary objective was to provide an alternative to traditional fiat currencies through a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are verified and recorded on an immutable public ledger, known as the blockchain.
Introduction to Ethereum
In 2015, Vitalik Buterin introduced Ethereum, presenting a paradigm shift beyond mere digital currency. Ethereum serves as an open-source platform for executing smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) without intermediaries. At its core is Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency powering transactions and fueling the ecosystem.
Core Differences
Purpose: Bitcoin functions primarily as a digital currency, aiming to revolutionize financial transactions. Ethereum, on the other hand, is a versatile platform enabling the execution of smart contracts and DApps, with broader implications for decentralization beyond monetary exchange.
Technology: Bitcoin operates on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, requiring significant computational power for transaction validation. Ethereum initially adopted PoW but is transitioning to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0, offering improved scalability and energy efficiency.
Scalability: Bitcoin processes approximately 7 transactions per second, while Ethereum can handle up to 30. Both face scalability challenges, with Ethereum exploring solutions like sharding to enhance throughput and efficiency.
Supply: Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, creating scarcity akin to digital gold. In contrast, Ethereum does not have a predefined supply limit, potentially allowing for continuous production, albeit with economic implications.
Use Cases: Bitcoin is synonymous with a store of value, often likened to digital gold due to its limited supply and scarcity. Ethereum's versatility enables the creation of innovative applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and more, expanding its utility beyond monetary transactions.
Price Dynamics
Bitcoin's market movements often dictate the broader cryptocurrency landscape, impacting the prices of assets like Ethereum. Influencing factors include market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Ethereum's price dynamics are further influenced by platform upgrades, developer activity, and the burgeoning demand for decentralized applications.
Monthly Bitcoin Chart
Monthly Ethereum Chart
Conclusion
While Bitcoin and Ethereum share the foundation of blockchain technology, their purposes, technologies, and applications diverge significantly. Bitcoin seeks to redefine monetary exchange, while Ethereum aims to revolutionize contractual agreements and decentralized applications. Understanding these distinctions is paramount in navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets and harnessing their transformative potential in the global economy.
what currencies to buy in times of geopolitical tensions. In times of geopolitical turmoil or war, investors often seek refuge in currencies perceived as safe havens. several currencies are considered safe harbors due to their stability, liquidity, and low risk of depreciation. Some of the notable safe-haven currencies include:
1-US Dollar (USD): The US dollar is often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven currency due to the size and stability of the US economy, as well as the liquidity of USD-denominated assets. During times of uncertainty, investors tend to flock to the USD, driving up its value.
2-Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland's reputation for political neutrality and its strong banking system make the Swiss Franc a popular safe-haven currency. Investors view the CHF as a stable and reliable asset during periods of geopolitical tension.
3-Japanese Yen (JPY): The Japanese Yen is considered a safe-haven currency due to Japan's status as a net creditor nation and its large current account surplus. During times of crisis, investors often repatriate funds into the JPY, driving up its value.
4-Euro (EUR): Despite occasional uncertainties surrounding the Eurozone, the Euro is still considered a safe-haven currency by many investors. The Euro's status as the second most traded currency in the world and the stability of major Eurozone economies contribute to its safe-haven appeal.
5-Gold-Backed Currencies: Some countries, particularly those with significant gold reserves, may issue currencies backed by gold or pegged to the price of gold. These currencies offer stability and are perceived as safe havens during times of crisis.
Mind the Gap: How to Trade Price GapsThe Power and Beauty of Price Gaps
Price gaps represent a clear imbalance in supply and demand, making them one of the purest representations of momentum in financial markets. These gaps occur when there is a significant disparity between the closing price of one period and the opening price of the next, indicating a sudden surge in buying or selling pressure.
How to Trade Price Gaps: 3 Different Strategies
1. Gap & Go:
Description: This strategy involves trading in the direction of the gap, anticipating that the momentum will continue.
Execution: Enter trades as soon as the market opens, aiming to capture the initial momentum surge.
Timeframe: Typically applied on shorter timeframes, such as intraday charts.
Risk Management: The gap can be used for stop less shelter, hence stops can be placed above (below) the gap.
Example: Tesla (TSLA) 5min Candle Chart
In this example, Tesla gaps lower at the open – breaking below a key level of support and signalling the breakdown of a sideways range. The gap follows through to the downside during the remainder of the trading session.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Gap Fill:
Description: In contrast to the Gap and Go strategy, this approach involves fading the initial price movement and trading in the opposite direction of the gap.
Execution: Wait for price to retrace back to pre-gap levels before entering trades, anticipating that the gap will eventually be filled.
Timeframe: Can be applied on various timeframes, depending on the magnitude of the gap and market conditions.
Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders to manage risk, as price may continue to move against the trade.
Example: Barclays (BARC) Hourly Candle Chart
Barclays gap above key resistance on the hourly candle chart. The gap is filled and broken resistance turns to support prior to the uptrend resuming.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. First Pullback:
Description: This strategy combines elements of both Gap and Go and Gap Fill, focusing on entering trades after the initial momentum surge but waiting for a pullback or consolidation before entry.
Execution: Wait for the first pullback or consolidation after the gap before entering trades in the direction of the prevailing momentum.
Timeframe: Suitable for both shorter and longer timeframes, depending on the magnitude of the gap and market dynamics.
Risk Management: Utilise stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements and adjust position sizing based on volatility.
Example: Arm Holdings (ARM) Hourly Candle Chart
Arm’s share price puts in a large price gap which breaks decisively above a key level of resistance on the hourly candle chart. Given the size of the gap, optimal entry requires waiting for the market pullback.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Additional Factors to Consider
Catalyst Behind the Gap:
Look for stock-specific news events that recalibrate market expectations, such as earnings surprises or changes in outlook.
Mechanical events like dividends or corporate actions are less likely to sustain momentum.
Size of the Gap:
Larger gaps indicate stronger momentum but also carry a higher risk of mean reversion.
Assess the magnitude of the gap relative to historical price action and volatility.
Levels Broken:
Consider the significance of key support and resistance levels broken by the gap, as they may influence the strength and direction of the price movement.
Prevailing Trend:
Analyse the prevailing trend before the gap and assess whether the gap aligns with the overall market direction.
By incorporating these factors into your analysis and selecting the most suitable strategy based on market conditions, you can effectively trade price gaps and capitalise on momentum opportunities in the financial markets. Remember to exercise proper risk management and adapt your approach as market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
1-Indicator Strategy For Beginners...The Stochastic Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Wednesday!
I wanted to share one of my top 3 favorite indicators with you.... The Stochastic (STOCH). As a leading (vs lagging) indicator, it is perfect for beginners because you can find entry and exit signals with only a few key details.
Adding the STOCH to your chart:
1. Search the indicators for "STOCHASTIC" and click once to add to your chart. The only thing that I modify is the thickness of the lines but feel free to make further changes to your liking.
2. Make sure that the "indicators and financial values" option is ON. Right-click your scales, select labels, and make sure "indicators and financial values" is checkmarked.
Entry signals for a buy:
- The STOCH is facing up
- The fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange)
- The STOCH has crossed above the 20% level, from oversold, back into the blue-shaded area
Exit the trade or take profit once the STOCH has crossed back below the 80% level, from overbought, into the blue-shaded area.
Entry Signals for a sell:
- The STOCH is facing down
- The slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue)
- The STOCH has crossed below the 80% level, from overbought, back into the blue shaded area
Exit the trade or take profit once the STOCH has crossed back above the 20% level, from oversold, into the blue-shaded area.
I hope that this video helps someone become a more independent and profitable trader. Let me know in the comments if you try this strategy!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Keltner Bands Pullback StrategyHere we take a look at trading pullbacks using the Keltner Channels. I cover the initial setup, the types of entries, and trades to avoid.
This setup contains 3 parts:
The channel touch
The Pullback
The Entry
The Channel Touch
Here is an example of the beginning signal in our setup, a band touch. The top and bottom bands represent the ATR (Average True Range) of a loopback period. So a touch of the band indicates volatility in the underlying stock or commodity. This also presents us with a chance for a nice pullback with continuation.
The Pullback
The pullback is simple, it is a reversion to the mean. So, the price pulls back to the mean (the ema) that the Keltners are based on. From this point, you can start to determine the entry.
The Entry
Depending on your style, a stop order, or limit order trader, you get to create your style to enter the trade. The following are some ideas: zero line MACD cross, second entry (price action) long or short, a trigger zone (for limit order traders), and an ema touch (limit order traders).
Zero Line Entry
Price pulled back and crossed the zero line on the modified MACD indicator.
Second Entry Long (High2)
The entry is the second attempt to break the previous bars high in a pullback.
The Trigger Zone
I created these based on an internal Keltner channel. You can set your limit orders anywhere inside of them.
EMA Touch
Whenever the price touches an offset ema you can enter. So you can place and move your limit order as the ema moves. I like to offset by one because you are guaranteed a price touch (ema doesn't move). Backtesting is also my accurate with an offset ema.
Conclusion
The Keltner channels offer an extremely powerful way to determine a potential pullback within a trend. They also help define trends (on the first touch) and help objectively identify climatic behavior. This strategy as a whole allows for high-quality setups and the flexibility of entering and exiting trades based on trading style. I like to shoot for a 1:1 based on stop placement.
HERE ARE 10 COMMON TRADING INDICATORS MADE SIMPLE Chart has all 10.
Hope this helps.
Hope it's simple to understand if you still struggle with indicators.
Remember, no one indicator is good on its own.
Think of an indicator as a sign that you should pay attention to a possibility. For example, if I go to the ocean, maybe I have an indicator that says you're closer to sharks than in the great lakes, will I be eaten? Probably not, but also, there are more sharks and my indicator confirms that. I can't use this one indicator to say, I'm probably about to be eaten. BUT.. Let's say I have multiple indicators that I use to give me a better idea if I'll be eaten. Maybe an indicator tells me there is an oddly higher than avg number of a sharks number 1 food source within the area. Can I say I'll be eaten? No, but I could say, maybe due to the increased food supply, there may be more sharks. What if I have a few more indicators, one of which says there are 30 great whites within 10 miles, and another that says, usually at this time of the year, there are only ever between 2 to 7 great whites. Can I say, Yes, I'll be eaten? NOPE, not yet.
What if I have another indicator that says, across the globe, shark attacks are increasing by a certain percentage, and another that says, there is blood detected within the water you're swimming in, which is lower than the threshold for human's to detect, but higher than the threshold needed for sharks to smell. What if I combine that with an indicator that says, on avg there are 1000 swimmers here, but now, there are under 30. Can I say I'll be eaten? Nope, BUT, I can say, hmm. Something is up and if one of us were to get eaten, I'm more likely to be picked out of 30 people than 1000.
When can I say I'll be eaten? Probably if you build an indicator that can detect bite force and compare to known bit forces of sharks that could sense you're actively being eaten, but at that point, the stock moved already... err I mean, the shark ate already, and you're late to the show..
My point being, use them, but don't always assume when it comes to indicators. Take in all the data and then make a decision. Some indicators fit your style, some won't. Do I need 30 stacked indicators for sharks if I'm swimming in Lake Michigan? Probably not, it would make everything a mess.
So, here there are.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Ah, the RSI, the “I’ve had too much” indicator of the stock market. When it hits above 70, it’s like your stock had too much to drink at the party and is likely to come crashing down. Below 30? It’s been left out in the cold and might be due for a warm-up (a.k.a. price increase). Remember, it’s not foolproof, but then again, neither is your weather app.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): This one’s all about following the crowd. If the volume is increasing, it’s like everyone’s rushing to get the latest iPhone. But remember, even if everyone jumps off a bridge, it doesn’t mean you should too. Always double-check before you follow the herd.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): The SMA is like that reliable friend who’s always a bit behind on the latest trends. It gives you the average closing price over a certain period. It’s simple, it’s moving, it’s average. It’s the SMA.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA is the SMA’s hip younger sibling. It cares more about what happened recently than what happened way back when. It’s great for short-term trading, but remember, even the coolest kids can get things wrong.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This one sounds complicated, but it’s not. It’s like watching two rabbits on a race track. If the fast rabbit (the 12-day EMA) overtakes the slow rabbit (the 26-day EMA), it’s a bullish signal. If the slow rabbit overtakes the fast one, it’s a bearish signal. Just remember, rabbits are unpredictable!
Fibonacci retracements: Ah, Fibonacci, the Da Vinci of math. These horizontal lines indicate where support and resistance levels might be. It’s like trying to predict where you’ll meet your ex at a party. It could be useful, but don’t rely on it too much.
Stochastic oscillator: This one’s a bit like a pendulum. When it swings one way, it’s likely to swing back the other way soon. It’s great for spotting potential reversals, but remember, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Bollinger bands: These are like the elastic waistband of your favorite sweatpants. If the price hits the upper band, it might be time to sell (or stop eating pizza). If it hits the lower band, it might be time to buy (or hit the gym).
Average Directional Index (ADX): This one tells you whether the price is trending strongly or just wandering around like a lost puppy. Above 25 is a strong trend, below 20 is weak. But remember, even lost puppies find their way home eventually.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line: This one’s all about supply and demand. If the line is going up, the stock is being accumulated. If it’s going down, it’s being distributed. It’s like tracking whether more people are buying or selling fidget spinners.
Remember, these indicators are like tools in a toolbox. Don’t try to build a house with just a hammer. Use them in combination, understand their limitations, and always do your own research. Happy trading! 📈
Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi launch: stock trading idea 8/04/24Tesla Inc. is gearing up for a significant reveal on 8 August this year, as it plans to introduce its much-anticipated robotaxi. This move comes at a time when the company is navigating sluggish sales and increasing competition from more affordable Chinese electric vehicles. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, announced on his social media platform, X, the upcoming unveiling of the robotaxi.
Tesla has long been ambitious about its vision of a fully autonomous vehicle, first presented to investors in 2019. Recently, Tesla has rolled out the latest iteration of its driver assistance software, marketed as Full Self-Driving (FSD), to its consumer base.
Given this backdrop, let's delve into Tesla Inc.'s stock (TSLA) to scout for potential trading opportunities:
Analysing the Daily (D1) chart, a support level is identified at 160.51 USD, with resistance at 182.87 USD. A breakout above this resistance level could signify the start of an uptrend.
On the Hourly (H1) chart, initiating long positions becomes attractive upon breaching the 182.87 USD mark, targeting a short-term objective of 205.06 USD. For those looking at a medium-term investment, maintaining a long position until reaching 233.87 USD could be viable.
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Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews.
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(NASDAQ:TESLA) STOCK UNDER $100.00?WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS TO PAY ATTENTIO!
Short Term Price Target
$155.27 to 146.54
1. Tesla's Stock Price Below $100.00: The fact that Tesla's stock could drop below $100.00 suggests a significant bearish sentiment in the market. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance or broader economic factors impacting the stock.
2. Possibility of Dropping Below Support #1 and Ascending Support Line: If Tesla's stock breaks below Support #1 and the ascending support line, it indicates increasing selling pressure and a potential shift in the trend. This could be a signal for traders to anticipate further downside movements.
3. Potential Decline to $118.68 - $91.10 Range, Potentially Breaching Support #2: Breaking below the ascending support line increases the likelihood of a decline to levels between $118.68 and $91.10. Breaching Support #2 could intensify the downward momentum, leading to further losses for Tesla's stock.
4. Gap Fill at $75.69: Should the price breach Support #2, there's a chance that Tesla's stock might fill the gap observed on January 25 and 26, 2023, at $75.69. Gap fills often act as significant support or resistance levels and could influence future price movements.
5. Potential for Return to Pre-COVID Levels: Whether Tesla's stock could return to pre-COVID levels depends on various factors such as the company's fundamentals, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. While it's possible for stocks to recover from downturns, it would likely require positive catalysts and a favorable operating environment for Tesla to regain its pre-COVID price levels.
In summary, the outlook for Tesla's stock appears bearish in the near term, with potential further declines and a possibility of returning to levels observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, long-term prospects would depend on the company's ability to address underlying challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
NFA
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Bitcoin: is price set to get cheaper or.....?Today's focus: BTCUSD
Pattern – Range, seller test.
Support – 62,000 area
Resistance – 73,000 area
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at BTC on the daily.
With sellers continuing to check buyers, it continues to look like we could see a new move at support. But for now, buyers continue to hold firm from around the 62,000 area.
We have run over a few scenarios. Could we see a move-through support to test the next lower Fibb point? Or will we see support contnue to hold the current range pattern?
Good trading.
Weekly Technical Analysis 15/04/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Germany 40 is exhibiting a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, with the price now standing at 17,966, which is slightly below the VWAP of 18,223. The index has found new support at 17,807 and is encountering resistance at 18,638. The RSI is at 45, indicating a cooling off of the previous bullish momentum.
UK 100 is still bullish but has entered a corrective phase. The price has seen a slight decline to 7,967, positioning it just above the VWAP of 7,935. The support level is now 7,890, while resistance lies at 7,980. With an RSI of 64, there’s a slight dip in the bullish sentiment from before.
Wall Street has taken a bearish turn and is in an impulsive phase. The price has dropped to 38,112, falling below the VWAP of 39,005. Support and resistance levels have been adjusted to 37,854 and 40,158, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 35, signalling a shift to bearish momentum.
Brent Crude remains in a bullish and impulsive phase, with the price now at 89.47, above the VWAP of 88.18. Support has been established at 84.14, with resistance not far off at 92.21. An RSI of 61 indicates a marginal decrease in bullish momentum.
Gold has sustained its bullish trend and is in an impulsive phase, with a price hike to 2,359, well over the VWAP of 2,275. The support level has been marked down to 2,130, and resistance has been found at 2,420. The RSI has risen to 70, suggesting a stronger bullish sentiment and an overbought condition.
EUR/USD remains bearish but has shifted into an impulsive phase, with the price tumbling to 1.0658, below the VWAP of 1.0785. The support has been noted at 1.0648, with resistance at 1.0922. An RSI of 32 signifies a reduction in bearish sentiment.
GBP/USD stays bearish and impulsive, with the price at 1.2466, below the VWAP of 1.2595. The support has been updated to 1.2460, with resistance at 1.2731. The RSI at 34 indicates a decrease in bearish momentum.
USD/JPY continues in a bullish trend and remains impulsive, with the price slightly up at 153.84, above the VWAP of 151.86. The support level is 150.20, with resistance observed at 153.52. The RSI at 76 shows a modest decline in bullish momentum.
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations.
Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike.
Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption.
Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics.
RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE
The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year.
Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT.
Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices.
USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside.
USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area.
CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule.
USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases.
USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated.
ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION
USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”.
While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol.
CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING
Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium.
MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN
CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4).
Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures.
To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently.
A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024.
This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends.
• Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April)
• Target: 1.076
• Stop Loss: 1.052
• Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100))
• Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional)
• Reward to Risk: 1.44x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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What's in a Trading Plan? Here's All You Need to Include.Ready, set… plan? In this guide, we discuss why you need to plan your trading before trading your plan. Let’s roll.
Table of Contents:
»Importance of a Trading Plan
»The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi...
»What's in a Typical Trading Day?
»Markets, Strategies and Styles
»Summary
Venturing into trading without a plan is akin to setting sail on the ocean without a compass. Or taking the leap without looking first 😉. We can keep the metaphors rolling but if there’s one thing you must remember from this word salad of an article, it’s this: success in trading is possible with a plan. Without a plan, not so much.
In this guide, we'll talk about the importance of creating a trading plan, what you should include in it, and how to follow it.
📍 Importance of a Trading Plan
A trading plan is not just a list of dos and don’ts; it's the roadmap to trading success. Here's why it matters:
➡️ Streamlines Your Actions : Much like a roadmap, a trading plan outlines your objectives, time frames, strategies, and risk management techniques, and offers a clear path forward.
➡️ Limits Emotional Swings : By defining rules and parameters in advance, a trading plan helps to keep emotions in check, limiting impulsive actions that could lead to financial pitfalls.
➡️ Fosters Discipline : Sticking to a plan holds you accountable for your actions and allows you to see where you jump out of your rule book and into undisciplined FOMO-driven pump-chasing revenge trading.
📍 The Successful Trading Plan Doesn't Exi...
Many traders believe that you can be successful by buying and selling random selections of stocks, forex pairs, or commodities. However, the reality is that the most — if not all — successful traders have one thing in common: a well-defined trading plan. Here's what makes for a successful trading plan:
☝🏽 Adaptability : A successful trading plan is not rigid but flexible, allowing for adjustments in response to changing market conditions.
☝🏽 Consistency : A plan helps you stay on track toward your goals as a trader, allowing you to stick to predefined rules and strategies, especially when things get hot and volatile.
☝🏽 Continuous Improvement : A successful trading plan is a work in progress. The more time you use it, the higher probability you will have to refine it as you drift along diverse assets, all swayed by different factors.
📍 What's in a Typical Trading Day?
A typical trading day is a blend of preparation, execution, and reflection. And while you should leave room for new ideas, fresh approaches, and some surprises, there are mainstay components that you need to have in your trading plan.
📰 Reading the News : Staying in the know is always a good idea. For many successful traders, the first thing to do is check what’s the latest on the news front. Known as fundamental analysis, reading the news and doing your research will help you get a sense of investor sentiment.
Moreover, you can stay ahead of the curve and anticipate big market moves by following the economic calendar. Lots of those sharp swings you see in forex or stocks are caused by regular data dumps such as the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates or the monthly Consumer Price Index are also keys to anticipating volatility.
And what better place to follow all that’s moving markets than the TradingView News section ?
📈 Following the Charts : if you’re here, this one won’t be too new to you. Chart reading, known as technical analysis, is one of the oldest ways to analyze anything — from stocks to crypto and even frozen orange juice.
Think of a chart as your trading canvas. It’s your space to be creative, draft ideas, look for technical patterns and formations, and anticipate potential moves. Observing the chart and watching how prices behave will help you spot where a trend may form, extend, or reverse.
Some of the most popular technical formations include double tops and bottoms, head and shoulders, cup and handle, and more. And some of the most popular technical indicators include the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Fibonacci sequence.
All of that, and much more, is readily available for you almost anywhere you click on the TradingView platform.
⚒️ Work on Your Skills : Trading doesn’t have to glue you to the screen in constant monitoring of every blip. If you don’t see anything to trade, don’t trade just for the sake of it. Sometimes the best trading position is no position at all.
Instead, use some of your idle time to build out your knowledge base. Grab some books on technical analysis or trading psychology. Or watch interviews of successful traders and investors and gain that educational edge to help you become a more aware, informed, and confident trader.
🏖️ Take a Break : Not everything you do needs to be related to productivity gains and trading improvement. Stare into space or read a great novel. Take your mind off trading and unwind, let the steam off, and recharge your batteries.
Go out, enjoy a walk or do some people-watching. Taking time to zone out every now and then will help you get back to trading sharper, smarter, and more balanced.
📍 Markets, Strategies and Styles
The world of trading is as diverse as it is dynamic, offering a flurry of markets, strategies, and trading styles to explore. Here's a glimpse into the landscape:
💹 Markets : Traders can choose from a variety of financial markets, including stocks , forex , and cryptocurrencies , each with its unique characteristics and opportunities.
When you set out to create your trading plan, think carefully whether you want your portfolio to be concentrated into any one market or asset class. Or maybe you’d like to go for a diverse approach to trading and pull in assets from several markets.
Knowing what your asset preference is will help you phase out markets so they don’t distract you.
🎯 Strategies : From technical analysis to fundamental analysis, you can adopt various strategies to identify trading opportunities and manage risk, ranging from trend following to mean reversion.
News trading is a popular approach to markets as it allows you to bet on economic reports, geopolitical events, central bank updates, and more. On the other hand, technical traders tend to stick to the chart in efforts to gauge price movements and trends. Every chart tells a story. Deciphering it is the tough part.
🌈 Styles : Trading styles are equally important and they’re all tied to a specific time frame of holding your positions. If you’re more into short-term trading, you may pick scalping and target a few pips of gains before jumping out of your trade.
Day trading and swing trading are two popular time-sensitive trading strategies that you may want to explore when building out your trading plan.
📍 Summary
Your trading plan should be exactly that — yours. Tailor it to your specific goals, risk orientation, asset preference, and find out how it stacks up against market conditions.
That way, you can navigate the markets with confidence and direction, instead of letting markets sway your decision making and lead you into uncharted waters. Embark on your trading journey armed with a well-crafted plan, and let it be your roadmap to trading success.
📣With that said, let us know in the comments: do you have a trading plan? What’s the most important element of it and are you always sticking to it?
Big Levels on Big TechBig technology stocks have moved sideways for the last month. Now there could be some important levels for names like Nvidia as investors digest today’s higher-than-expected inflation report.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the March 11 low of $841.66. This level has provided support since the chip giant’s peak on March 8. (It’s also a weekly low.) Closing below it could make traders think about a test of the post-earnings gap on February 22.
MACD has also been falling since mid-March. That could suggest direction has been turning more negative.
At least two other AI-themed stocks may face similar predicaments.
First, NASDAQ:SMCI Super Micro Computer formed a tight range above its March 20 low and a falling trendline. Traders may next eye the February 20 low of $692.50 as potential support.
Second, NASDAQ:AMD Advanced Micro Devices has pushed toward its low from February 21. Traders may next eye around $149, the high in late December and early January before the stock broke out to new record territory.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Don't Trade These Trend Lines | Forex Trading Basics
A lot of traders apply trend lines for trading and making predictions on different financial markets.
Trend line can also be an important element of price action patterns.
However, only few knows that some trend lines are better to be avoided.
In this article, I will share with you the types of trend lines that you should avoid and not rely on for making trading decisions.
Invalidated Trend Line
Even the strongest trend lines may lose their significance with time.
Before you take a trade from a trend line, make sure that it still remains valid.
If the trend line is not respected by the buyers and then by the sellers,
or by the sellers and then by the buyers, we say that such a trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade it.
Have a look at that rising trend line on USDCAD.
We see strong bullish reactions to that, and we may expect a bullish movement from that, once it is tested.
However, it was violated and after a breakout it should turn into a vertical resistance.
Retesting that, the price easily went through the broken trend line.
The trend line lost its significance, and it is better to not trade that in future.
2 Touches Based Trend Line
When you are looking for a strong trend line to trade, remember that the trend line should be confirmed by at least 3 touches and 3 consequent bullish / bearish reactions to that.
Above is the example of a valid and reliable trend line.
However, quite often, newbie trade 2 touches based trend lines.
Most of the time, such trend lines are neglected by the market.
Moreover, relying on 2-touches-based trend lines, your chart will look like a complete mess.
Simply because there are too many trend line meeting that criteria.
Receding trend line
There are the trend lines that go against your trade with time while remaining valid.
Have a look at a major falling trend line on NZDCHF on a daily time frame.
You may open a swing long position from that on a daily or a day trade on intraday time frames like an hourly.
You can see that the market may easily go against your predictions for a long time, while perfectly respecting a trend line.
The price was sliding on that trend line for 6 consequent days before it finally started to grow.
Such trend lines are better to be avoided .
Make sure that a trend line and your trade have the same direction.
Trend lines can provide very safe points for trading entries. However, the trend lines are not equal and while some of them can be very profitable, some of them can lead to substantial losses.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics.
The Halving Mechanics
At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140.
As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset.
Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted:
“In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.”
Impact on Price Dynamics
Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate
Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%.
The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.
Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance,
To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving.
This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price.
Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market
The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery.
Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up.
Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward.
Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving.
A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article).
Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure.
Impact on Miners
The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation.
The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities.
The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough.
In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices.
Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole.
As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals.
The rise of Ordinals
The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving.
Long Term Outlook
Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value.
Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.
Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.
In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group.
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Futures Day Trading with Volume ProfileToday was yet another amazing trade off a long term volume profile level for over 50 points on the CME_MINI:ES1! S&P500 E-mini futures.
I want to document these trades as teachable moments because I think Volume Profile is an absolutely amazing tool that should be in ever trader's toolbox!
📈 Bullish Perspective on BTC: On a Higher Time Frame Analysis!
Despite recent market jitters and bearish sentiments stemming from a significant drop, I remain bullish on Bitcoin, particularly in a higher time frame analysis. The recent downturn may seem daunting, but it's crucial to recognize that such fluctuations are often part of Bitcoin's volatile nature, especially in the midst of its ongoing bull market trajectory and the upcoming Halving.
In this analysis, I've employed the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool, which is readily available on TradingView for free. By pulling the fixed range volume profile from the inception of the triangle formation to the current price, several key insights have emerged.
Firstly, it's noteworthy that price found robust support at the Value Area Low (VaL) of $64,550 at the start of April. Subsequently, we witnessed a temporary rejection from the Value Area High (VAH) of $72,440 on Monday, April 8th. As for now, price is hovering below the previous day's open of $69,360.
A possible scenario I'm considering involves a potential retracement towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the base of the triangle. Notably, at this juncture, we encounter another significant level of confluence: the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP). The red line within the FRVP denotes the Point of Control (POC), situated within the $67,000-$66,800 range. This area holds the potential to serve as a support zone.
Maintaining an overarching bullish sentiment, it's essential to acknowledge the imminent halving event and the ensuing price fluctuations it may entail. As long as we remain entrenched within the confines of the triangle without flipping it as resistance, alongside holding the POC, red line, and the base of the triangle as support, we can anticipate higher price trajectories.
However, it's prudent to exercise caution and monitor closely the $68,000 area, which coincides with the monthly Volume Weighted Average Price (MVWAP).
In terms of actionable trading strategies, I'm eyeing long positions for shorter time frames (STF) around $68,450 as a POC of the last drop/$67,000 area at the base of the triangle in case of another drop, with a cautious approach after reclaiming. For higher time frame (HTF) longs, I'm considering entry at $65,550 as a Naked POC made on April 4th. Conversely, shorts could be considered for shorter time frames (STF) at the $71,300-$71,700 area and for higher time frames (HTF) at the all-time high if signs of weakness manifest as a failed action.
*STF trades should be monitored closely, taking profit within the first reasonable sign of weakness!
In conclusion, while short-term fluctuations may rattle market participants, a broader perspective reveals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, underscored by technical analyses and market dynamics.
**Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice!
TradingView Masterclass: The power of Bar Replay🚀 Unlocking Your Trading Potential with Bar Replay on TradingView
In the whirlwind of trading, having ace tools up your sleeve can dramatically shape your strategy and success. The spotlight shines bright on TradingView’s Bar Replay feature, a gem that offers a rewind on market movements, setting the stage for strategic mastery. Let's dive into what makes Bar Replay a must-use for traders eager to refine their game.
🕒 Understanding Bar Replay on TradingView
Bar Replay is one of TradingView's standout features, allowing traders to select any point in history on their chart and watch the market's movements replay from that moment. It's a game-changer for visualizing price actions and volume changes without the stakes of live trading. Whether you're aiming for an in-depth analysis or a quick market recap, the adjustable speed of Bar Replay caters to all your needs with unmatched flexibility.
🤿 Why Dive into Bar Replay ?
The magic of Bar Replay lies in its exceptional ability to simulate market scenarios, offering a practice ground for strategy testing and gaining insights from historical market behavior. Newcomers find a safe space to learn and experiment, while the pros get a robust tool for refining strategies. Our tutorial video steps it up by walking you through practical uses on a top company's chart—marking crucial levels, applying indicators, and making trade decisions, all within the Bar Replay environment.
✨ Conclusion: ReplayYour Path to Trading Excellence
Bar Replay isn't just another tool; it's your companion in the quest for trading excellence, turning theory into actionable insight. Whether you're just starting or fine-tuning your strategy, it bridges the gap to more informed and decisive trading.
Ready to explore Bar Replay 's power and make each session a step closer to your trading goals? Let's embark on this journey together.
❓ Ever tried Bar Replay in your trading adventures?
We're all ears! 📢 Whether it's been a strategy game-changer or you're navigating its integration, drop your stories below. Let’s navigate the market's waves together.
💖 TradingView Team
PS: Check out our other Masterclasses in the Related Ideas below 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽 and give us a 🚀 and a follow if you don't want to miss any of our future releases!
Double EMA Strategy...For Beginners Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday! It's a new week which means many new opportunities to get into the market...but it doesn't mean that you have to take all of them.
Make sure you focus on finding the best setups by sticking to your plan and following your confirmation checklist. The best out of 25 will give you a good idea of your win/loss ratio.
If you are still struggling to find a SIMPLE strategy that works for you, try using this Double EMA strategy that I apply to my trades. Let me know what you think and if it works for you!
Today we will cover:
1. How to use EMAs on Tradingview
2. Double EMA Strategy
3. Feel confident taking a buy or sell in Forex trades
4. Trade with the trend
Peace and Profits,
Cha
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements for CryptoHow to Use Fibonacci Retracements for Crypto
Fibonacci retracements have long been used in traditional financial markets. However, with the advent of crypto trading, they’ve also found popularity amongst digital asset traders. In this article, we answer the question “What is Fibonacci in crypto?”, discuss how to trade retracements and offer some strategies you can get started with today.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci retracements are based on the Fibonacci sequence mathematical concept. This sequence was discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci, a 13th-century Italian mathematician, and consists of a series of digits where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. The sequence is 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, and so on.
The most interesting aspect of this sequence is the so-called Golden Ratio of 1.618. This ratio can be found throughout artificial and natural structures, including the Taj Mahal, tornadoes, and spiral galaxies. This ratio, and complementary ratios, also seem to significantly influence the financial markets.
Fibonacci retracement levels are percentages derived from the Golden Ratio. The most widely used retracement levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. These levels represent potential support and resistance areas where the price of an asset, like a cryptocurrency, might bounce back or reverse during a trend. Additional retracement levels, like 23.6% and 78.6%, are also sometimes used, although they are considered less significant.
As traders, we can use the Fibonacci sequence in crypto trading to identify potential areas where a price may reverse or stall, allowing us to make informed decisions about when to enter and exit a position. The retracement levels can be applied to any timeframe, making them versatile tools for different trading styles, including day trading, swing trading, and position trading.
What Does Fib Mean in Crypto?
“Fib” is an abbreviated term describing Fibonacci retracements. While there are other types of Fibonacci tools, such as extensions, fans, and spirals, Fibs will almost always refer to retracements.
How to Use Fibonacci Retracements for Crypto Trading
Using Fibonacci levels in crypto has become increasingly popular in recent years, especially for the world’s largest and most popular digital asset, Bitcoin. The highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies makes it crucial for traders to identify potential areas of support and resistance where prices may reverse.
To find and use your own Bitcoin Fibonacci levels, follow these steps:
Plot the Bitcoin Fibonacci retracement levels by selecting an extreme low and high in an uptrend and vice versa. This can be done using the Fibonacci retracement tool available in most charting software, including the TickTrader platform by FXOpen.
Observe price action at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% levels. Each level acts as an area that may prompt a reversal. If the price breaks through one level, it can be assumed the trend is continuing and that the asset will move to the next level.
When drawing the Fibonacci retracement, it’s essential to follow these two rules:
When looking to plot support levels, set the first point at a swing low and the second at a swing high.
When looking to plot resistance levels, set the first point at a swing high and the second at a swing low.
Optimising Entries and Exits
While Fibonacci retracements can help traders pinpoint support and resistance levels, there are a few factors to consider to make the most out of Fibs for crypto trading.
Trade with the Trend
Like many technical tools, Fibonacci retracements are best applied in line with a broader trend. While you might be looking for a short-term reversal, the setup will have the highest probability of working as expected when it conforms to a higher timeframe trend. In other words, you would want to look for retracements in a larger uptrend and vice versa.
Think of the Levels as Areas
Like traditional support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels shouldn’t be treated as the exact point where the price will reverse. It happens occasionally, but the price will often move slightly beyond the level before reversing as expected. It may even stop just short of it. Instead, you can treat them as areas of interest and then wait for confirmation using other tools.
Combine Fibs with Other Technical Tools
When looking at a crypto Fibonacci chart, it can be tempting to simply set a limit order at one of the significant levels and call it a day. While this sometimes works, there’s no guarantee these areas will remain consistent. It’s better to evaluate the likelihood that the area will hold, or is holding, using other tools.
For example, you could look for it to line up with a horizontal support/resistance level or a trendline. Momentum indicators, like the relative strength index (RSI), can also offer insights into whether the trend is weakening and is due for a reversal. Additionally, candlestick and chart patterns can provide extra confirmation.
Strategies for Trading Bitcoin with Fibonacci Retracements
Let’s take a look at some specific Fibonacci retracement strategies you can use to trade Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Trend Trading with Support and Resistance
This approach simply requires identifying a broader trend and waiting for a pullback to one of the key levels that lines up with the horizontal support and resistance level.
Entry: Limit orders can be set at the level within the support/resistance area. Alternatively, you could wait for the area to show signs of reversal before entering with a market order.
Stop Loss: Stop losses can be set just above (in an uptrend) or below (downtrend) the horizontal area. It should be somewhere that invalidates your idea without being unnecessarily wide.
Take Profit: Traders often begin to take profits at the chosen high or low. In the example shown, we could start to take profit at the retracement’s swing low.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Divergences and Fibonacci
This strategy combines the popular momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), with the Fibonacci retracement tool. Specifically, we’re looking for divergences that indicate a potential reversal as the price moves to a Fib level.
Entry: Wait for a regular divergence to appear at a significant Fibonacci level (right-hand trendline). When the price shows signs of reversal, validating both the retracement and the divergence, traders can enter with a market order.
Stop Loss: A stop can be placed above or below the entry candle, depending on the direction of the trade.
Take Profit: As with the previous strategy, a good place to consider taking profit is at the high or low of your plotted retracement.
As a bonus here, we also have a hidden divergence (the left-hand trendline) that indicates that bullish momentum is likely to happen.
Fibonacci and Chart Patterns
In this strategy, we use chart patterns to confirm the level is holding. In the Bitcoin Fibonacci chart shown, we’ve used a bullish wedge (a common reversal pattern), but you can use any pattern you prefer.
Entry: After observing a chart pattern at a retracement level, you could wait for the pattern to be confirmed with a breakout. Then, you may enter on the retest of the pattern’s trendline. In this example, we could wait for the upper trendline to be broken before waiting for a pullback and entering.
Stop Loss: Stops can be placed above or below the pattern’s opposing trendline. Here, we’d place it below the wedge’s bottom trendline.
Take Profit: You could take profit at the retracement tool's extreme points.
This setup also had extra confirmation with the double bottom before the wedge broke out, providing a high-probability trade.
Confirming Fibonacci with Other Technical Indicators
Of course, RSI isn’t the only indicator you can combine with Fibonacci retracements. Here are some other popular indicators to use:
Moving Averages: Moving averages can offer dynamic support and resistance levels that add extra confluence to a Fib setup. Longer-term averages, like a 50 or 200-period moving average, are often respected. Meanwhile, pairing two faster moving averages can help confirm reversals when they cross over.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are often used to spot potential reversals. Touches to the band that move away sharply can be a sign of a reversal and, when combined with a retracement level, can make for a decent entry.
MACD: MACD is another momentum indicator that can help traders find reversals. When the MACD and signal lines cross at a Fibonacci level, this can indicate a reversal is inbound.
Risk Management Techniques
As with all trading strategies, risk management is critical to a sustainable system. However, there are a few techniques that are specific to Fib retracements.
Look For High-Quality Setups
The first step in managing your risk is to only trade the best setups. This means looking for Fibonacci trades that have multiple confirmation factors and waiting patiently to see what you want to see. You might miss some moves this way, but it’ll also keep you out of many losing trades.
Set Logical Stop Losses
When using Fibonacci retracements in crypto, it can be tricky knowing where to place your stop loss. It’s good practice to consider the wider context of your trade idea and how your stop-loss placement fits into it.
If you’re confident that the retracement level will hold or are trading short-term price movements, setting a stop loss beyond the entry level is suitable. Likewise, if you’re less confident that the area will prompt a reversal or are taking a longer-term view of the market, then you may prefer to set your stop loss at the high or low of the Fibonacci retracement.
Establish Take Profit Targets in Advance
By knowing where you want to exit a profitable trade, you prevent yourself from giving up too much profit by holding on too long. Using the take-profit levels discussed is a good place to start, as are Fibonacci extensions.
Develop a Rule-Based System
Having clearly defined rules for Fibonacci entries will remove a lot of the guesswork that comes with discretionary trading. It helps you find the best quality setups, avoid impulsive decision-making, and means you can easily adjust your strategy as you progress.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
When using Fibonacci in crypto trading, traders can sometimes fall into pitfalls. Let’s examine some of the most common errors.
Confusing Highs and Lows: As mentioned, selecting a high or low as your first point when plotting the retracement depends on whether you’re looking for support or resistance. Be sure to follow the rules described earlier to avoid any confusion.
Confusing Fibonacci Retracements for Extensions: Retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback, while extensions project potential target levels beyond the original high or low. Double-check the name of the tool you’re using to avoid getting the two mixed up.
Ignoring the Bigger Picture: Always consider the overall market context and trend before making a trade. If the market is strongly trending in one direction, a reversal at a Fibonacci level might be less likely.
Misidentifying Significant Price Points: Selecting the correct high and low points is essential for accurate retracement levels. This usually means selecting the most extreme swing highs and lows that are easily visible. Take your time to identify the most significant price points, and be prepared to adjust your points as the market progresses.
Closing Thoughts
In summary, Fibonacci retracements can make for an excellent addition to your crypto trading arsenal. While they shouldn’t be used in isolation, combining Fibs with other technical tools and indicators can make for an effective strategy.
However, the tips, techniques, and strategies described here aren’t exclusive to crypto: they can be applied to whichever market you prefer to trade, like forex, stocks, and commodities. Want to see for yourself? You can open an FXOpen account to gain access to these markets and the advanced TickTrader platform, where you’ll find the Fibonacci retracement tool and the indicators discussed waiting for you. Good luck!
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Embracing Failure: The Key to Unlocking Trading SuccessIn the pursuit of trading mastery, the path is often littered with setbacks and failures. However, it's essential to recognize that these hurdles are not just obstacles but invaluable learning opportunities. Learning how to fail – and more importantly, learning from failure – is a critical step towards enhancing your trading success. This article explores the significance of embracing failure as a vital component of your trading education.
➡️ The Role of Failure in Trading
Trading, by nature, involves uncertainty and risk. Even the most seasoned traders face losses; it's an inherent part of the game. However, the difference between successful traders and those who struggle lies in their response to failure. Successful traders view failures as feedback, using them as a springboard to refine strategies, hone skills, and fortify mental resilience.
➡️ Failing Forward
The concept of "failing forward" means using setbacks as a catalyst for growth. Instead of letting failure deter your progress, it involves analyzing what went wrong, understanding the factors at play, and adjusting your approach accordingly. This mindset shift is crucial in trading, where the same mistake can be costly if repeated.
➡️ Lessons from Losses
Every loss carries a lesson. It could be a flaw in your strategy, a gap in your market knowledge, or even an insight into your psychological biases. By meticulously reviewing your failed trades, you can uncover these lessons and apply them to avoid similar pitfalls in the future. Remember, in trading, experience is measured not just by your wins but also by how you navigate and learn from losses.
➡️ Some famous quotes
Thomas A. Edison : " I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. "
Winston Churchill : " Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm. "
Michael Jordan : " I've failed over and over and over again in my life and that is why I succeed. "
Henry Ford : " Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently. "
J.K. Rowling : " It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all—in which case, you fail by default. "
Oprah Winfrey : " Failure is another stepping stone to greatness. "
Theodore Roosevelt : " The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything. "
Albert Einstein : " A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new. "
Coco Chanel : " Success is most often achieved by those who don't know that failure is inevitable. "
Johnny Cash : " You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. "
James Joyce : " Mistakes are the portals of discovery. "
Samuel Beckett : " Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better. "
Robert F. Kennedy : " Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly. "
John C. Maxwell : " Fail early, fail often, but always fail forward. "
Arianna Huffington : " Failure is not the opposite of success; it's part of success. "
Abraham Lincoln : " My great concern is not whether you have failed, but whether you are content with your failure. "
Dale Carnegie : " Develop success from failures. Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success. "
Mary Kay Ash : " When you fail, you have to be able to say, 'I believe in myself enough to try again. '"
Steve Jobs : " Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure — these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. "
Richard Branson : " Do not be embarrassed by your failures, learn from them and start again. "
As you can see, you're not the only one who fails, the famous people quoted all had their fair share of fails. The fact that they did not give up is testimony to their eventual success.
➡️ Building Resilience
Repeated exposure to failure, coupled with a constructive response, builds resilience. This mental toughness is invaluable in trading, helping you maintain composure and clarity in the face of market volatility. Resilient traders are better equipped to stick to their strategies, manage risks effectively, and seize opportunities without being swayed by emotional extremes.
➡️ Practical Steps to Learn from Failure
☝🏽 Keep a Trading Journal : Document every trade, including the rationale, outcome, and any emotions felt. Review this journal regularly to identify patterns in your failures.
☝🏽 Seek Feedback : Engage with a trading community or mentor. External perspectives can offer insights you might overlook.
☝🏽 Educate Continuously : Use failures as a cue to fill knowledge gaps. Whether it's technical analysis, market fundamentals, or trading psychology, there's always more to learn.
☝🏽 Develop a Growth Mindset : Cultivate the belief that your abilities and intelligence can grow with effort. This mindset encourages resilience and a positive attitude towards learning from failure.
➡️ Conclusion
In trading, failure is not the opposite of success; it's part of the journey to success . By embracing your failures, analyzing them, and extracting lessons, you can continually improve your trading performance . Remember, every great trader has faced setbacks; what sets them apart is their ability to learn, adapt, and evolve from those experiences. So, next time you encounter a setback, see it as an opportunity to grow and inch closer to your trading goals.
❓How do you deal with failure? Do you let it get the best of you or do you dust yourself off and continue with renewed drive and energy?
Share your experience in the comments below 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
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