TSMC Secures Historic $11.6 Billion U.S. InvestmentIn a groundbreaking move to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( BCBA:TSMC ) has secured a monumental $11.6 billion investment from the United States. The initiative, spearheaded by President Joe Biden, underscores a strategic effort to fortify America's position in critical technology production.
Under the terms of the agreement announced by the U.S. government, BCBA:TSMC is set to receive $6.6 billion in grants and up to $5 billion in loans to facilitate the construction of a third chip manufacturing facility in Arizona. This investment is poised to unleash a cascade of economic activity, with TSMC's total investments at the three Arizona plants projected to exceed $65 billion.
The newly announced factory, slated to utilize next-generation 2-nanometer process technology, is anticipated to become operational before the end of the decade. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized the significance of these advancements, particularly in driving emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and fortifying national security capabilities.
Raimondo remarked, "For the first time ever, we will be making at scale the most advanced semiconductor chips on the planet here in the United States of America, with American workers." This milestone underscores a pivotal moment in the Biden administration's push to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry, as outlined in the 2022 Chips and Science Act.
TSMC's commitment to expanding its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. aligns with a broader trend of major semiconductor companies repositioning their operations to American soil. Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. have also inked substantial agreements under the Chips Act, signaling a seismic shift in global semiconductor production dynamics.
The significance of TSMC's investment extends beyond economic implications, carrying political weight as well. With Arizona emerging as a pivotal battleground state, the infusion of jobs and investment from TSMC's projects aligns with President Biden's vision of revitalizing the American economy and securing reelection support.
Moreover, the BCBA:TSMC grant includes provisions for workforce training and is expected to generate 6,000 high-tech manufacturing jobs, alongside over 20,000 construction jobs. This influx of employment opportunities underscores the transformative impact of the semiconductor industry on local economies.
While the road ahead may present challenges, including navigating labor disputes and market uncertainties, TSMC's commitment to its Arizona projects underscores a long-term vision for technological innovation and economic growth. As the company enters a due-diligence period before finalizing agreements, the promise of a revitalized semiconductor industry on American soil looms large on the horizon.
Technically, TSM stock is in the consolidation zone after accumulating liquidity might spike to a new Resistance level.
Community ideas
The TradingView Digest - April 8thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top ideas from our community, which includes a write-up on Tesla, an informative post about Keltner channels and Bollinger bands, a hot script on trailing stop management, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
We hope you find this week's edition exciting and engaging. Let's dive in! 😀
💡 Tesla Stock Down 30% This Year. What Happened to the EV King? - by TradingView
The electric-car maker is in dire need of charging after losing more than $260 billion this year and turning Elon Musk into the biggest loser among the world’s wealthiest. Tesla stepped into 2024 as the world’s largest EV seller with a valuation of more than $780 billion. None of that is true today.
💡 Keltner Channels vs Bollinger Bands - by FXOpen
If you're a trader, you likely know that indicators are valuable tools for identifying trends and determining entry and exit points. Two popular indicators are Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands. Both help measure volatility, but which one is better? In this article, we'll delve into the differences between the two, explain their components, and discuss which one is best.
🔝 Top Stories
📰 U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls +303K; Unemployment Rate 3.8%
📰 Johnson & Johnson to Buy Shockwave Medical in $13.1 Billion Deal
📰 Gold Shines Above $2,300, Ends Another Week At Record High
📰 Solar Eclipse On April 8 Could Give Whopping $1.5 Billion Boost To Businesses
📰 New users flock to Ethereum while long-term holders are less active than ever
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
💲 Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
💲 BlackBerry reports surprise profit on demand for cybersecurity services
💲 Conagra (CAG) Q3 Earnings Beat, Organic Sales Decline Y/Y
💲 Lamb Weston (LW) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, Guidance Lowered
💲 Greenbrier 2Q Revenue Declines But Beats Wall Street's Forecast
💡 Nvidia - Entering a Bear Phase! - by basictradingtv
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long-term rising channel formation. The last retest of support occurred in 2021, followed by a +650% rally to the upside. As of now, Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel, and we might see a short-term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all-time high.
💡 Don't Get Duped by the RSI - by ParabolicP
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
📆 Economic Calendar
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — Core Inflation Rate YoY
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — Inflation Rate YoY
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — FOMC Minutes
⚡️ April 12th (United States) — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
⚡️ April 16th (China) — GDP Growth Rate YoY
🔥 What's New?
✅ New chart type — Volume candles
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Trailing Management - by Zeiierman
This tool provides an automated and visual approach to trailing stop management, aiding in systematic decision-making for trade entries and exits based on risk-reward metrics.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“The trend is your friend.”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, remarks, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
💖 TradingView Team
📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow !
Bitcoin: The Halving Range.Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation (see converging lines on chart) as the halving event nears. Makes sense, especially since events like this tend to be "buy the rumor, sell the news". There is no way to know how Bitcoin will react going into the halving because there are many factors in play, often too many to effectively act upon. Many like to resort to history, but history does NOT repeat itself exactly the same way every time. The illustration on this chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week.
As of now, IF 68,850 is compromised, a new swing trade buy signal will be in effect on this time frame. IF the consolidation stays intact, then it is not likely to go very far (71K area resistance). This means a better way to participate is day trade with low expectations. I repeat that a lot because MOST of the time, there is little to no opportunities on the larger time frames that make sense in terms of the associated RISK. Sure you can enter at any price and it MAY go your way, but how much risk are you taking? Big wins with high risk = unsustainable account performance (exchanges, forex dealers, prop firms and casinos LOVE this idea).
Another way to capitalize on this consolidation is to WAIT for supports to be tested such as the 66K and 64K levels. If 64K is compromised, a test of 60K becomes much more likely which would extend the range of the consolidation. Upon testing such levels, waiting for confirmation before entering is key because markets are HIGHLY random and there is no guarantee supports hold.
Technical analysis helps to develop a plan, evaluate risk and manage expectations. It is NOT a method to forecast the future as many believe. Anything can happen, any time, all it takes is an unexpected piece of news. The information I provide here is to help you operate under a realistic set of expectations as defined by historical MARKET structure, NOT how I feel or think. Realize that this is actually a game of information. Whoever has the best information will profit from the majority of participants who "believe" they are acting on useful information.
As a short term oriented trader, I am not trying to be "right". I am trying to gain insight into areas of price behavior that may offer a greater probability of a positive outcome. In other words looking for price action clues that point to repetitive behaviors that I can capitalize on.
Let that sink in before consuming another Youtube video featuring a rocket ship.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Is TikTok FOMO the Canary in the Crypto Coal Mine? How Memes and Hype Signal a Risky Market
The meteoric rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has captured the imagination of investors and the public alike. But amidst the excitement, a crucial question lingers: how do we identify when the market might be overheating? Traditionally, analysts have relied on technical indicators and economic data. However, the rise of social media, particularly TikTok, presents a new wrinkle in gauging market sentiment, especially with the influx of worthless meme coins and potentially misleading influencer endorsements.
The Allure of Crypto on TikTok
TikTok's short-form video format is a breeding ground for viral trends, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Endlessly scrolling users are bombarded with enthusiastic pronouncements about the "next big coin" and testimonials of life-changing gains, often featuring meme coins with dog or cat logos. These videos exploit the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) mentality, pressuring viewers to jump on the bandwagon before prices skyrocket. However, many of these meme coins have little to no underlying technology or real-world application, making them inherently risky investments.
The Mania Indicator:
While social media can be a valuable tool for connecting with communities and sharing information, the sheer volume of uncritical crypto hype on platforms like TikTok, especially surrounding meme coins, can be a strong warning sign. When complex financial instruments are reduced to catchy slogans and presented as a get-rich-quick scheme with cute animal mascots, it suggests a market driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
Paid Promotions and Influencer FOMO:
Further complicating the issue are influencers who promote specific cryptocurrencies, often without disclosing that they're being paid to do so. These endorsements can mislead viewers into believing these meme coins or hyped projects are legitimate investments. This lack of transparency can create artificial demand and inflate prices in the short term, but can also lead to dramatic crashes when the hype bubble bursts.
A Canary in the Coal Mine?
Historically, periods of intense social media buzz surrounding specific stocks or asset classes have often coincided with market peaks. Social media trends are fleeting, and the frenzy surrounding meme coins on TikTok could be a sign that the crypto market is nearing a period of correction.
Beyond the Hype:
It's important to remember that social media trends are fleeting. While these platforms can provide a glimpse into popular sentiment, they shouldn't be the sole basis for investment decisions. Conducting thorough research, understanding the underlying technology of a project, and employing sound risk management strategies remain paramount for navigating the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
The Takeaway:
The proliferation of meme coin cheerleading and potentially misleading influencer endorsements on TikTok serves as a stark reminder of the importance of measured analysis in the face of market exuberance. While social media can be a tool, responsible investors should prioritize fundamental analysis, avoid meme coins with no real-world application, and be wary of paid influencer promotions. A long-term perspective is essential when navigating the exciting, yet volatile, world of cryptocurrencies.
Keltner Channels vs Bollinger BandsKeltner Channels vs Bollinger Bands: Which Indicator Should You Use?
If you’re a trader, you likely know that indicators are a valuable tool for identifying trends and finding entry and exit points. Two popular indicators are Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands. Both help you measure volatility, but which one is better? In this article, we’ll dive into the differences between the two, explain their components, and discuss which one is best.
Keltner Channels
The Keltner Channel is an indicator that helps traders determine trends, momentum, and potential reversal areas in a given market. It’s named after Chester Keltner, who first introduced it in the 1960s. Keltner Channels are composed of three lines, forming an envelope.
The middle of these three lines is an exponential moving average (EMA), usually set to 20 periods. The upper and lower lines are multiples of the Average True Range (ATR) added or subtracted from the EMA, often double. The ATR measures the volatility of an asset by taking the average of the true ranges of its price movements over a certain period.
We can interpret Keltner Channels in several ways. The upper and lower bounds act as dynamic support and resistance levels, and traders use them to determine entry and exit points. Additionally, when price breaks through one of the bounds, it may signal a potential reversal or a continuation of the current trend, depending on price action and other technical factors.
For instance, a market in a strong bullish trend will appear to stick close to the upper line, often retracing to the EMA before continuing higher. Meanwhile, closes far outside of the lines may sometimes signal a reversal, given how far price has moved beyond its expected true range. Following a ranging market, determined when the lines are effectively horizontal, these kinds of extreme moves may signal a breakout.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands is a widely used technical indicator that helps us identify an asset's volatility and potential price movements. It was created by John Bollinger in the 1980s and has since become a popular tool among traders of all levels.
Like Keltner Channels, the Bollinger Bands tool comprises three components: the middle line and two outer lines. The middle line is a simple moving average (SMA), typically 20 periods long. The upper and lower bands are calculated by adding and subtracting a multiple of the price’s standard deviation from the SMA, respectively. This multiple is set to two by default, but some will adjust it according to their preferences.
Instead of using the true range, Bollinger Bands use standard deviation (STD) – the square root of the variance of a set of price movements over time. Because they utilise standard deviation, Bollinger Bands are slightly more responsive to volatility than Keltner Channels. When the range constricts, volatility is low; and when the range expands, volatility is increasing. Many traders prefer Bollinger Bands to gauge volatility in the market.
As with Keltner Channels, the bands show dynamic support and resistance levels. They’re also quite effective when used to detect reversals – explained shortly. Additionally, we can apply Bollinger Bands to detect trends/breakouts when price hugs the bounds, though arguably not as well as Keltner Channels.
Keltner Channels vs Bollinger Bands
So, we know that using Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands helps us to measure volatility while trading. But what exactly are their key differences?
ATR vs STD
The first and most fundamental difference is how each indicator measures volatility. ATR, used in Keltner Channels, takes the average of absolute changes in price, or an average of the true range. The standard deviation used by Bollinger Bands indicates how much price may deviate from its average.
While the difference may seem subtle, it can be significant in certain market conditions. Standard deviation gives more weight to larger values over smaller ones, effectively making Bollinger Bands more responsive to volatility.
EMA vs SMA
The second is the moving average both indicators use. Keltner Channels employ an exponential moving average, which is more responsive to recent price action than other moving averages.
Bollinger Bands implement the simple moving average, which reacts slower than the EMA. The impact isn’t as significant as ATR vs standard deviation, but the more responsive nature of the EMA may help traders get into positions more often if they’re trading pullbacks.
Trading Trends
To determine a trend with Bollinger Bands, we typically look for the bands to start widening, which indicates volatility (usually following a breakout). When the bands become tight, it’s expected that a new trend could be about to form.
To identify a trend using Keltner Channels, we can examine whether it slopes up or down. Given that Keltner Channels are often slower moving, multiple closes outside the channel can show us that an asset has momentum and is looking to continue the trend.
Trading Reversals
Statistically, 95% of price action should be inside Bollinger Bands with two standard deviations. This is significant for identifying potential overbought and oversold areas; moves beyond the bounds indicate that the price action is extreme and has a strong likelihood of reversing.
Keltner Channels can be used to find reversals, but it’s often much harder than with Bollinger Bands. A price will regularly breach or close outside of the channel in a strong trend while not crossing Bollinger Bands. It’s best to apply Keltner Channels to trend trading and identifying breakouts.
Using Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands in a Strategy
Overall, Bollinger Bands are a more responsive indicator that may help us identify when volatility could be about to pick up (tightening) and when a new trend has likely started (widening). They’re well suited to trading reversals, thanks to the statistics of standard deviations.
Keltner Channels tend to be less responsive to volatility, but they may be much better at identifying strong trends, especially when price hugs or continuously closes beyond the lines. When price ranges, Keltner Channels often show a new trend forming much faster than Bollinger Bands, thanks to the telltale sloping of the channel.
So which one is best? Ultimately, it comes down to the individual trader and their style. Some may prefer to trade reversals with Bollinger Bands or jump on board breakouts with Keltner Channels. You could play around with both in the free TickTrader platform from us at FXOpen to get an idea of how to apply both indicators while trading.
Closing Thoughts
You should now have a solid overview of the differences between Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands. While they may seem similar, taking the time to experiment with them will show you the qualities of each and how they could be applied to various scenarios.
Once you settle on your favourite, why not combine it with other indicators, like RSI or Stochastic oscillator, to develop your own strategy? Then, when you’re ready, open an FXOpen account and start using your system for real trading!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Tesla Stock Down 30% This Year. What Happened to the EV King?The electric-car maker is in dire need of charging after losing more than $260 billion this year and turning Elon Musk into the biggest loser among the world’s wealthiest.
Table of Contents
» How It Started vs How It’s Going
» Nothing Magnificent About It
» Competition Revs Up
» Teslas Pile Up on Weak Demand
» If You’re Having a Bad Day, Read This
📍 How It Started vs How It’s Going
Tesla (ticker: TSLA ) kicked off the year as the big tech highflyer we all know. With a valuation of more than $780 billion, the electric-car maker stepped into 2024 as the world’s largest EV seller. Deliveries were standing at record highs and chief executive Elon Musk was the world’s richest person and was looking at a gargantuan $55 billion pay day.
All of that was taken away in one way or another. Chinese automaker BYD (ticker: 1211 ) dethroned the EV kingpin by selling 526,000 EVs for the fourth quarter of 2023, more than Tesla’s 484,000. Even as Tesla reclaimed the top spot in the January through March quarter, it flagged a worrying signal that its business was shrinking.
As for Elon Musk, he lost a court battle over his lofty $55 billion pay package when a judge called it “an unfathomable sum.” Shortly before that, he handed the World’s Richest title to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos .
📍 Nothing Magnificent About It
Chugging through first-quarter twists and turns, Tesla drifted away from the highly exclusive club called the “Magnificent Seven.” The group of companies with a snappy nickname is made up of Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Google parent Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ), Amazon (ticker: AMZN ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ), and outsider-in-the-making Tesla (ticker: TSLA ).
How did that happen and why is Tesla at risk of falling out of the Magnificent Seven? Tesla’s valuation — which is notoriously volatile and hard to pinpoint — saw a massive 30% drop over the first three months of 2024, turning the stock into the worst performer in the S&P 500. More than $260 billion has been washed out since early January, giving the EV maker a price tag of around $520 billion today. Zoom further out, and you see Tesla peaked during the Reddit stocks meme-trading era of 2021 when shares hit an all-time high of $417. Back then, Tesla became the first car manufacturer to break into the $1 trillion club.
Tesla stock has lost about a third of its valuation this year. Source: TradingView
The drastic fall spotlights a stark difference between Tesla and the rest of the Magnificent Seven big shots. The other tech giants are at the top of well-developed yet competitive industries. Take for example Microsoft — the software mainstay has created for itself a competitive moat in the enterprise and retail software business.
Tesla, on the other hand, is the trailblazer for the EV revolution but charged up rivals are shifting gears, threatening to soak up market share fast.
📍 Competition Revs Up
Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi (ticker: 1810 ) last week unveiled a slick-looking, tech-rich electric ride. The model is called SU7 and it clocked up 10,000 reservations in the first 4 minutes after launch. Then it got to 89,000 in 24 hours. The successful launch bumped Xiaomi’s market cap by $4 billion to around $50 billion, or 10 times less than Tesla. The SU7, however, is priced lower than a high-end Model 3.
Tesla has more rivals to outsell, among them BYD (ticker: 1211 ) and the more-niche player Rivian (ticker: RIVN ). Rivian is an EV startup that marked a 70% increase in sales for the first quarter. The number, however, is a tiny 13,980 units delivered.
📍 Teslas Pile Up on Weak Demand
Tesla’s year went from bad to worse this week when it announced it had delivered 386,810 EVs in the first quarter. The number was about 20,000 below the most bearish forecast on Wall Street. It was also 9% lower than last year’s first quarter, indicating that the company’s business is shrinking.
More importantly, Tesla produced 433,371 units, leaving about 46,000 waiting to be purchased by customers. The difference between production and deliveries meant that unsold models are piling up. A demand issue maybe?
📍 If You’re Having a Bad Day, Read This
In all that chaos, Elon Musk emerged as the world’s worst moneymaker, taking a huge blow to his net worth so far this year. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index , the eccentric engineer is down $45 billion to roughly $180 billion, taking the number one spot on the loser board.
Elon Musk owns a 20.5% stake in Tesla worth about $120 billion, according to a December 31 filing . The stake consists of 411 million shares of common stock and 303 million stock options with a strike price of $26 a pop.
The majority of Musk’s wealth is concentrated in his EV company, but he also owns private social media platform X, former Twitter, and space exploration company SpaceX, among other businesses.
📍 What’s Your Take?
Are you buying the dip in Tesla stock? Or are you waiting for a deeper drop before scooping up some shares for yourself? Let us know your thoughts on Tesla’s future in the comments below!
🚀if you liked this article, give us a follow to make sure you don't miss any.
💖 TradingView Team
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The TradingView Digest - April 3rdHey there! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. We are thrilled to announce the successful conclusion of our first-ever paper trading competition - The Leap ! With immense joy, we share that over 90,000 traders enthusiastically participated, executing a staggering 2,700,000 trades and securing an impressive $119 million in profits. Heartiest congratulations to all the winners, and our sincere gratitude to every participant for their overwhelming love and support.
In this edition, we’re excited to spotlight the top posts and ideas from our community. This includes an informative post on using stop-loss orders , a write-up on trading symmetrical triangle patterns , a hot script on volumes , and all the latest headlines , earnings , and economic events .
We hope you find this week's edition exciting and engaging. And don't forget to participate in our Bitcoin halving contest for a chance to win our exclusive T-shirt. Without further ado, let's dive right in! 😀
💡 How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading? - by TradingView
In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio.
💡 A Comprehensive Guide to Fibonacci Retracements - by XForceGlobal
Fibonacci Retracements are a set of ratios defined by the mathematically important Fibonacci sequence. This allows traders to identify key levels of support and resistance for price action. The Fibonacci retracement tool, although widely used by many traders, is almost always not correctly used by new traders.
💡 Bitcoin Halving Contest: Time’s Ticking, But When’s It Kicking? - by TradingView
Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! The Bitcoin Halving is on the horizon, and the countdown has begun. But here’s the twist - every Bitcoin clock out there is telling a different time for when block 840,000 will hit the scene. It’s like they’re all watching different episodes of the same thrilling show. 🍿
🔝 Top Stories
📰 Japan Manufacturers Sentiment Deteriorated for First Time in Four Quarters
📰 AMC Shares Drop 14% to Hover Near Record Lows After Filing to Sell $250M of Stock
📰 Reddit Stock Can’t Get Off the Volatility Train After Another Double-Digit Drop
📰 Bitcoin Halving Countdown: BTC Skyrockets to $71,000 Amidst Market Anticipation
📰 SEC May Delay Ethereum ETF Until December: Bitwise
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
💲 McCormick (MKC) Q1 Earnings & Sales Top Estimates, Grow Y/Y
💲 GameStop Q4 Earnings Highlights: Retail Favorite Stock Plunges After Revenue, EPS Miss
💲 Compared to Estimates, Carnival (CCL) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
💲 Jefferies Financial Group Fiscal Q1 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Dividend Maintained
💲 Walgreens Sees Steep Loss After Major Write-Down of Clinic Operator VillageMD
💡 How To Trade A Symmetrical Triangle Break-Out - by TVM_MENA
A symmetrical triangle is a geometric formation found in technical analysis, often appearing during periods of market consolidation. It's characterized by converging trendlines, typically drawn by connecting a series of lower highs and higher lows. This pattern reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, signaling indecision in the market regarding the future price direction.
💡 Bitcoin Heading Below 20K is A Good Thing! - by WicktatorFX/
This one is a bit of a hack but follows on from my video on how to set 'Stop Losses' on TradingView for Connected Brokers. To set a trailing stop loss, you need to open your broker account, place the trade there, and it will then be reflected on the TradingView interface.
📆 Economic Calendar
⚡️ April 3rd (United States) — Fed Chair Powell Speech
⚡️ April 5th (Canada) — Unemployment Rate
⚡️ April 5th (United States) — Non Farm Payrolls
⚡️ April 5th (United States) — Unemployment Rate
🔥 What's New
✅ New launch: predict market activity with unerring accuracy
✅ Scan your watchlists in Stock, ETF, and Crypto Coins screeners
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Periodic Activity Tracker - by LuxAlgo
This tool visualizes cumulative buy and sell volume for user-defined periods, offering insights into volume dynamics with customizable options.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“ Weak traders focus on results - Strong traders focus on process. ”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, remarks, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
💖 TradingView Team
📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow!
Don't Get Duped by the RSIWhy This Popular Indicator Can Lead You Astray
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
While the RSI seems straightforward, there's a crucial catch: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when markets are volatile or trending strongly.
Here's how the RSI's lagging nature can be deceptive:
Overbought Traps: The RSI might reach overbought territory (above 70) during a strong uptrend. However, instead of signaling an imminent reversal, the price could keep climbing, potentially reaching new highs. This can lure traders into believing a correction is coming (based on the high RSI) only to miss out on further gains.
Oversold Deceptions: Conversely, the RSI might dip into oversold territory (below 30) during a downtrend. This could be interpreted as a buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce back. But, in a strong downtrend, the price may continue to fall, and the RSI might stay oversold for extended periods.
How to Use the RSI More Effectively:
Despite its limitations, the RSI can still be a valuable tool when used strategically:
Confirmation Tool: Combine the RSI with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation. For example, an RSI divergence (where the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price) might strengthen a potential reversal signal.
Identify Trending Markets: The RSI can help identify the strength of a trend. During strong uptrends, the RSI may frequently reach overbought levels without signaling an immediate reversal. Conversely, in downtrends, the RSI may stay oversold for extended periods.
Identify Overbought/Oversold Conditions: While not a precise timing tool, the RSI can indicate when an asset might be nearing extreme price levels, potentially due for a correction. However, be cautious about chasing these signals blindly.
Beyond the RSI:
Remember, the RSI is just one piece of the puzzle. Always consider other factors like market sentiment, news events, and overall price trends when making trading decisions.
Here are some additional tips:
Don't rely solely on technical indicators. Develop a comprehensive trading strategy that considers both technical and fundamental analysis.
Backtest your strategies. Test your trading ideas using historical data to see how they would have performed in different market conditions.
Start small and manage your risk. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, especially when using potentially deceptive indicators.
By understanding the limitations of the RSI and using it strategically, you can improve your technical analysis skills and make more informed trading decisions.
Trade like the pros in dark pools█ Trade like the pros in dark pools
If you're accustomed to trading on the stock exchange, you know that an exchange operates like a digitalized marketplace. Buyers and sellers gather around a stock and indicate what they're willing to trade for, hoping that two orders will match. Before you decide at what price you're willing to trade, you likely look at the order book depth. There, we see how many shares are seeking buyers or sellers at a specific price.
For a trade to be completed, the so-called spread needs to be crossed. The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price, in the example above 20 cents (226.40 – 226.20). In stocks that are traded very frequently, the spread is smaller and it's seldom a problem to execute very large volumes on the open market.
█ Dark pools simplify trading in small companies
Many stocks have too small a turnover to place a larger order without significantly affecting the price. Therefore, professionals have used dark pools for many years. Leading brokers are now making this flow available to all their customers. The advantage of a dark pool is that you don't need to show your order to other market participants until a trade has been completed. This facilitates, especially, trading in larger volumes.
Another advantage of dark pools is that trades are made at so-called midprice. Returning to the example above, a trade would occur when someone is willing to pay the full spread of 20 cents. Had the order book been a dark pool, the midprice would have been 226.30 SEK. In this way, it results in a better price for both buyers and sellers. For those trading in larger volumes, this can mean a lot of money.
█ All orders pass through dark pools
The fact that dark pools are now available to everyone does not mean that all orders should be placed there. In fact, there are several barriers to how much trading can be routed this way before the dark pool is temporarily limited.
When you place a regular order, thanks to so-called smart order routing, it will check if a better completion can be achieved via this dark pool than on the open market. So, whether you choose to actively place an order in the dark pool or not, you can benefit from the characteristics of the dark pool.
█ Shouldn't the exchange be completely open?
A criticism of dark pools is that they are exactly as they sound, hidden. But all trades made in Nasdaq Stockholm's dark pool are visible under completions. Stocks with low turnover can be difficult to trade without significantly affecting the price.
⚪ Let's take another example. Here we have a stock where the entire buy side corresponds to just over 130,000 SEK. That's a lot of money, but not an unreasonable holding for a private individual. This is also an order book from a company with a market value of about 1.6 billion. Thus, a small company, but not so small that trading for a couple of hundred thousand SEK should be unreasonable.
Here, the spread is also 30 cents. Which is over one (1) percent on this stock price. Being able to halve this cost can save a lot of money both directly and over time.
It is also possible to hide parts of an order today. In the advanced order placement on the open market, there is actually a tool for that problem as well. There, you can set the visible number of shares to be shown in the order book.
█ When you should use the dark pool
If you have never had problems with your order placement, you probably don't even need to consider placing an order in the dark pool. But if you trade stocks where you need to split your orders to not swallow too large a part of the order book, it might be valuable to try.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
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Last Leg To The Finish Line - UCHFHere I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!
Now we've been following USD/CHF since it created its NEW LOW back in Dec. '23.
This LOW I believe sparked the beginning of an Elliot Wave and currently we are looking at what seems to be a possible LAST LEG of this Impulse Move!
Price has currently created a HIGHER HIGH @ .90721, so we will be looking for Price to either:
1) Finish its BULLISH run to the Fib-Ext Ranged Target @ ( .91572 - .93426 )
-OR-
2) Look to make another Retracement to the ( .88726 - .88418 ) B/C Zone for another Potential Entry to surf the Wave the rest of the Way!
*RSI is showing we are currently Over-Bought, so this leads me to believe we could see price descend to our Zone.
Fundamentally-
-The BIG contributor to this scenario is with the SNB being the FIRST this year to cut their Interest Rates making the CHF look less attractive to investors
&
The FED holding rates gives the USD a Leg UP!
*Forecasters for Next Weeks News (Apr. 1 - Apr. 5) are leaning towards Bullish Outcomes so that could help feed the Bullish Mindset of traders for USD to start the new month off but ANYTHING can happen so BE MINDFUL OF NEWS!!
How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading?Stop loss order is the order that automatically closes your trade once it reaches a specified price target. Learn all about it here.
Table of Contents:
🔹What Is a Stop Loss Order?
🔹Why Stop Loss Orders Matter?
🔹Setting Stop Loss Levels
🔹Types of Stop Loss Orders
🔹Adjusting Your Stop Loss Orders
🔹Summary
In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio. In other words, with the right stop loss setup, you can shoot for asymmetrical risk returns by keeping your drawdown small and letting your profits run.
Let’s dive into the exciting world of trading and see how stop loss orders can be your greatest ally in trading.
📍 What Is a Stop Loss Order?
A stop loss order is an essential risk management tool used by traders to limit potential losses on a trade. By using a stop loss order, you instruct your broker to automatically sell the asset you’re holding when it reaches a predetermined price level that is below your purchase price, or entry.
A stop loss order allows you to control your losses and protect your investments so you don’t have to sit glued to the screen all the time.
📍 Why Stop Loss Orders Matter
Stop loss orders play a big role in risk management. These easy-to-set trading tools help traders stick to predefined risk tolerance levels by limiting the amount of money they are willing to lose on any given trade.
Without a stop loss order in place, traders may give in to emotional decision-making during periods of market volatility, leading to potential losses. If you have a hard time cutting your losses If you have a hard time cutting your losses when —ok, we get it, you're a bigshot— IF positions go against you, setting a stop loss when you enter the market will do the hard work for you.
➡️ Risk Management: One of the primary reasons stop loss orders are essential is because they help traders manage risk effectively. This is crucial in volatile markets where prices can fluctuate rapidly, as it prevents significant losses that could otherwise occur if trades were left unattended.
➡️ Emotional Control: Trading can evoke strong emotions such as fear and greed, which can lead to irrational decision-making. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may be tempted to hold onto losing positions in the hope that the market will reverse in their favor.
➡️ Peace of Mind: Knowing that there is a safety net in place can provide traders with peace of mind. Stop loss orders allow you to do your thing in the market without obsessively watching charts and tickers. Set your stop loss orders and focus on other aspects of your market study like catching up on the latest market-moving news and analysis .
➡️ Preventing Catastrophic Losses: In extreme market conditions, prices can experience sudden and significant declines. Without stop loss orders, traders risk experiencing catastrophic losses that could wipe out a significant portion of their capital.
➡️ Enforcing Discipline: Successful trading requires discipline and adherence to a well-defined trading plan. Stop loss orders help enforce discipline by striving to ensure that traders stick to their predetermined risk management rules. If trading is about discipline and consistency, then stop loss orders are the stepping stone to success.
📍 Setting Stop Loss Levels
Choosing the appropriate stop loss level is a critical aspect of using stop loss orders effectively. Traders should consider various factors, including their risk tolerance, investment objectives, market conditions, and the volatility of the asset being traded.
A common approach is to set the stop loss below a significant support level or a recent low in an uptrend (if you have a long position) and above a significant resistance level or a recent high in a downtrend (if you have a short position).
Example: Suppose you purchase shares of a company called X (not Elon Musk’s privately held X Corp., which he created by rebranding Twitter) at $50 per share. You estimate that a 5% decline in the stock price would indicate a potential trend reversal. Therefore, you set your stop loss order at $47.50 per share to limit your potential loss to 5% of your investment.
📍 Types of Stop Loss Orders
There are several types of stop loss orders that traders can utilize, each with its own special characteristics. The most common types include:
➡️ Market Stop Loss: a type of stop loss order that triggers a market order to sell the instrument at the prevailing market price once the stop loss level is reached.
➡️ Stop Limit: with a stop limit order, you have to deal with two types of prices. The first one is the price that will trigger a sell and the limit price. But instead of converting your order into a sell based on current market prices, you set a limit price.
➡️ Trailing Stop Loss: A trailing stop loss order is dynamically adjusted based on the movement of the instrument’s price. It allows traders to lock in profits while giving the trade room to move in their favor.
Example: You purchase shares of a big tech company at $100 per share, and the stock price then rises to $120 per share. You set a trailing stop loss order with a 10% trail. If the stock price declines by 10% from its peak, the trailing stop loss order will trigger, selling the shares at prevailing market prices.
📍 Adjusting Stop Loss Orders
While setting stop loss orders is essential, monitoring and adjusting them as market conditions evolve is equally important. Traders should regularly reassess their stop loss levels to account for changes in volatility, price action, and overall market sentiment. Additionally, as profits accumulate, trailing stop loss orders should be adjusted to protect gains and minimize potential losses.
📍 Summary
In conclusion, stop loss orders are one of the most essential and effective tools for traders seeking to manage risk and preserve and grow capital in the challenging world of trading. By understanding how to use stop loss orders effectively, you can rein in emotional decision-making, protect your investments, and increase your chances of long-term success.
Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, integrating stop loss orders into your trading strategy is a smart approach to navigate the twists and turns of the financial markets. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, but with proper risk management techniques like stop loss orders, you can tilt the odds of success in your favor.
❓Do you use stop loss orders when trading? Which type ? Let us know in the comments ⬇️
BITCOIN - Heading Below 20K...It's A Good Thing!We know this is an unpopular opinion BUT technically, Bitcoin is ripe for a move to the downside.
On the monthly chart, we can see that we've completed a major wave 1 impulse and now we're in a wave 2 correction. We're looking for one more move down to complete this wave 2.
See monthly chart below:
It looks as if we're making a 535 correction and therefore, we believe we'll be moving towards the 20k region to complete wave C.
Please note that we are still bullish on Bitcoin, as well as Crypto. We're looking for any buying opportunities to hold for the long term!
We'll be loading up for the long term anywhere below 20k region.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below:
A Trading Plan Is Important For Success - Here Is MineIn this video we take a look at a trend continuation trading strategy. I explain my approach to trading how I identify a trend and what I look for for high probability trade opportunities. As always the information is for educational purposes only and not to be construed as financial advice.
Live stream - Step into the heart of real-time action with our lBe part of the action at 9:15 AM! We achieved our goal 85.11% of 2023 in the first 30 minutes from the market open. Dive in and seize the opportunity! Join our live trading session where we'll trade in the live stream until we reach our goal!
Bitcoin Halving Contest: Time’s Ticking, But When’s It Kicking?Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! The Bitcoin Halving is on the horizon, and the countdown has begun. But here’s the twist - every Bitcoin clock out there is telling a different time for when block 840,000 will hit the scene. It’s like they’re all watching different episodes of the same thrilling show. 🍿
So, what’s the real deal? When will the Bitcoin magic happen? That, my friends, is where you come in. We’re rolling out the red carpet for your predictions. 🌟 Dust off your crystal balls and tell us the exact date and time (down to the second, UTC style) when you think the halving will unfold.
But here’s the game rule that adds a twist - only your first submission counts . Think of it as your opening move in a game of high-stakes chess. Make it count, because there are no do-overs. 🕰️✨
Here’s the kicker: only the predictions submitted before April 12th, at the stroke of midnight UTC , will enter the arena. Sharpen those pencils and mark your calendars. 📅✏️
The stakes? High. The reward? Higher. The five wizards closest to the halving moment will snag an exclusive TradingView T-shirt , a trophy of honor in the world of market experts. 👕🏆
Get set, predict, and may the odds be ever in your favor! Remember, it’s not just about guessing; it’s about being part of a moment that defines the future of finance. Let’s light up the charts with our collective predictions and watch as the Bitcoin saga unfolds.
Ready, set, predict! ⬇️
🚀 this idea and drop your prediction in the comments below! Good luck! 🍀
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of CorrectionNIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by:
→ Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell their products abroad and then convert the profits into yen.
→ Demand for shares of Japanese companies paying dividends. For example, shares of air conditioner manufacturer Daikin Industries rose by 2.82%.
At the same time, the NIKKEI-225 chart signals indicate the likelihood of a correction, since:
→ The price is near the upper border of the ascending channel, from which resistance can be expected.
→ Based on the results of trading in the Asian session, a long upper shadow is forming on today’s candle – a sign of selling pressure (as shown by the arrow). It seems that the price of NIKKEI-225 is difficult to stay above the level of 41,000.
If the Japanese stock market follows a correction scenario, the price of NIKKEI-225 may be supported by:
→ the lower boundary of a steeper ascending channel (shown in purple), which runs in the area of the Fibonacci level = 50% of the A→B impulse;
→ psychological level of 40,000.
Bearish sentiment for NIKKEI-225 could be triggered by decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, which are concerned about the weakness of the yen — the USD/JPY rate is today near a 34-year low.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How To Trade A Symmetrical Triangle Break-Out A symmetrical triangle is a geometric formation found in technical analysis, often appearing during periods of market consolidation. It's characterized by converging trendlines, typically drawn by connecting a series of lower highs and higher lows. This pattern reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, signaling indecision in the market regarding the future price direction.
Here's how a symmetrical triangle pattern typically looks:
Upper Trendline: Connects a series of lower highs.
Lower Trendline: Connects a series of higher lows.
As the price oscillates between these trendlines, the trading range becomes narrower, forming the triangle pattern.
Trading a breakout in forex involves capitalizing on a significant price movement that occurs when the price breaks out of the symmetrical triangle pattern. Traders employ a systematic approach to identify, confirm, and capitalize on these breakouts:
Pattern Identification: Recognizing the symmetrical triangle pattern entails observing the converging trendlines and confirming their formation with multiple swing highs and swing lows.
Determining Breakout Direction: Traders closely monitor price action within the triangle, looking for signs of an impending breakout. Breakouts can manifest in either direction, and traders seek confirmation through a decisive breach of a trendline, often accompanied by increased trading volume.
Confirmation and Entry: Patience is key as traders await confirmation of the breakout. Some may wait for a close above or below the trendline, while others may enter trades immediately upon breakout, anticipating further momentum.
Risk Management: Implementing effective risk management strategies is crucial. This involves setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses if the breakout fails or reverses.
Monitoring and Adjusting: Traders diligently monitor price action post-breakout, anticipating volatility and potential retests of breakout levels. They adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels based on evolving market conditions and price movements.
Trade Management: Once in a trade, traders adhere to their predefined trading plans. They consider scaling out of positions as price reaches predetermined targets or if market conditions shift.
Successful breakout trading in forex requires discipline, patience, and effective risk management. It's imperative to integrate technical analysis with other market factors like fundamentals and sentiment for well-informed decision-making.
Microsoft Might Have Done This BeforeMicrosoft has been rallying since October, and now a recurring pattern may be present again.
This chart highlights bullish breakouts by the software giant in October and January.
First you have tight consolidation against support. MSFT first held the October 13 closing price of $327.73, followed by the December 4 closing price of $369.14.
In both cases falling trend lines appeared along the closing highs. Notice how MSFT rallied after breaking those short-term resistance patterns.
Next, the lower study includes our 2 MA Ratio custom script. It plots the ratio of the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) versus the 21-day EMA. Consider how the ratios turned positive before each advance.
Fast forward to March 2024 and similarities are potentially visible. MSFT has mostly remained above the February 20 close of $402.79 and prices are back above a falling trendline. The ratio of the 8-day and 21-day EMAs is also turning up.
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bullish scenario of the second wave of the sideways correction pDear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
