How or why did you start trading?I've spent nearly 10 years on Tradingview.
But after doing this since the age of 15; it's been interesting and fun (don't worry, this is not me retiring) I just wanted to share some of the key points, the ups and the downs, the challenges and the rewards.
For those of you who don't follow or know me, my trading started after a school trip from Wales (in the UK) to New York's Wall Street. We went to learn about the Wall Street crash and visited the exchange. Needless to say I was hooked!
My early years of trading, I would take the pushbike to the bank and trade stocks from the Times newspaper, it was always over the phone via the bank broker, I had to do this via my mother as I wasn't old enough for a stock account through my bank.
These were large cap stocks, things like Vodaphone, Cadbury's and ones most people could identify with. These were never big trades just the experience I guess. How I funded this was, I dropped out of school not long after that trip to New York, no qualifications, just the idea of being a trader and taking over my father's engineering company.
I would work as an engineer, still live with my parents, and buy stocks.
It wasn't until a few years later I got into penny stocks. I guess for me - seeing the Wolf of Wall Street movie, it was a bit like that: you would buy stocks for fractions of a penny and watch them pump. Some traded better than others but still had very little knowledge; trading wasn't as accessible as it is today.
I guess looking back this was very similar to what I see in crypto today, especially with alt coins.
about 5 years into the journey, I ended up getting into Forex where I guess I have stayed ever since. This was fast-paced compared to stocks and the markets being open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. I would take long term trades such as the difference between the interest rate of the New Zealand Dollar vs the Great British Pound for example. It just felt like free money. (those were the days).
From there I also started trading Gold, Oil & SPX.
Running in parallel, I ended up in the tech space; investing in cyber security around financial markets. I keep little souvenirs of the journey like this card from buying my first Ferrari. It reminds me of why it was interesting in the first place!
I think you need this as a trader, I have written several articles here on Tradingview about the psychology and loneliness of being a trader. Two of my favourites are the Simpsons one and the other side of the trade. Doing things you wouldn't usually do is part of creating your inner trader.
I was fortunate enough to get into Bitcoin early doors, right place, right time as they say.
From 2012 onwards been educating, mentoring and advising people and what a journey that's been. I have met some great people along the way. This brings me back to the upside, downside and, of course, the psychology and emotions of trading.
Trading can be a very lonely place to be if you have nobody to share the wins with in real-time; it's hard when you manage losses and keep them to yourself. Of course it's very, very rewarding when all is going to plan!
I can't emphasise the importance of a community, it's actually one of the reasons for posting this post.
With access to charts and brokers directly on your phone, it's an incredible change from the time I first started. But it can also bring a lot of hidden dangers, it's a unique type of lifestyle. I understand not everyone trades for a living, it's a hobby or a way to earn some extra money. But the ups and downs of this can have a strain on mental health.
Fear and greed is a real thing, not just a sentiment indicator. We are human after all. It's so easy to fall into a false sense of security after a couple of nice wins. But it's even easier to go off the rails after a handful of losses.
Some really cool factors for me when it comes to trading, would have to include doing one of the Tradingview shows with Stefan back last year
www.tradingview.com and discussed the fact that a notebook I had made for my 11 year son had been published as a book. Never thought I would become an author after dropping out of school.
Part of the reason I stream here and write educational posts is I love to keep the trading game live and current. Watching Bitcoin unfold and become institutional has been such a pleasure and amazing to watch it transition. It's been a great way to interact with people from all around the world.
I guess the point is, the power of the internet and a platform like Tradingview; allows us to share such stories with the world.
What I have learnt, is that new traders come to the market with a certain expectation. Often, people assume they need more indicators, more screens, more news and more instruments.
What you realise over time, is you can make a living from a handful of instruments and a little bit of logic.
I'll kick it off by saying what I don't like about trading is how lonely and isolated it can be. What I do like about it is the freedom it brings.
I would love to hear your story, why you started trading, what you like or don't like about it and anything you feel like sharing!
Anyways; I just wanted to share this little post and get some discussions going. Have a great weekend and I'll see you on the next stream.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Community ideas
Three Simple Intraday StrategiesThree Simple Intraday Strategies
Intraday trading is a technique that commands your attention, rewarding those who can swiftly analyse market data and act decisively. Armed with the right strategies, traders can make the most of market fluctuations within a single trading day. This article explores three successful intraday trading strategies: Breakout + 50% Retracement, RSI Trend Following, and HMA Crossover with VWAP. Read on to enhance your intraday trading toolkit.
Understanding Intraday Trading
Intraday trading entails buying and selling a given asset within a single trading day. The focus is on capitalising on short-term price movements. Unlike other trading styles, intraday trading techniques require quick decision-making, as positions are not held overnight. Two key factors are liquidity, allowing for easy entry and exit, and volatility, offering price movement opportunities. While the potential for quick gains is high, risks are equally elevated, emphasising the importance of sound strategies.
In the sections below, we’ll cover three intraday trading strategies. For the best understanding, consider using FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to follow along in real time.
Breakout + 50% Retracement
The Breakout + 50% Retracement strategy combines the power of a price breakout with a midpoint entry, generally utilised in the context of an established trend. When a convincing breakout occurs, traders often look for entry points at the midpoint of the initial trading range. A convincing breakout is one that closes above or below the range's high or low, ideally with a large candle.
Entry
Traders typically watch for a breakout to occur from a trading range.
Entries are generally taken at the 50% retracement level of the trading range in the direction of the breakout.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are commonly positioned beyond the high or low of the initial trading range.
Take Profit
Profit-taking usually happens at identifiable support or resistance levels, aligning with the trend direction.
This strategy capitalises on the momentum generated by a breakout. By entering at the midpoint of the trading range, traders can position themselves during the pullback while maintaining a decent risk/reward ratio. The use of stop losses beyond the trading range's high or low helps in mitigating risks and taking profits at support or resistance levels helps traders to maximise their returns before price potential reverses.
RSI Trend Following
The RSI Trend Following strategy fine-tunes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to be more sensitive by using a 7-period setting instead of the traditional 14. In the context of a well-established trend, this strategy suggests waiting for a pullback and then entering a position as the RSI swings back into its normal range.
In the chart above, we’ve used Apple (AAPL), one of the best stocks for intraday trading due to its high liquidity. However, this strategy will work across all types of assets.
Entry
Traders usually look for an established trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend.
During a pullback, the RSI often crosses into overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) territory.
Entries are typically made when the RSI crosses back into the normal range, confirming the trend's continuation.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are generally set above the most recent high in a downtrend or below the most recent low in an uptrend.
Take Profit
Profits are often taken at pre-identified support or resistance levels in line with the ongoing trend.
The strategy aims to capitalise on the continuation of existing trends by making the RSI more sensitive. A 7-period RSI allows traders to react more quickly to short-term price changes. By setting stop losses around the most recent highs or lows and targeting support or resistance levels for profit-taking, traders aim to balance potential rewards with manageable risk.
HMA Crossover With VWAP
The HMA Crossover With VWAP strategy integrates the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) with the Hull Moving Average (HMA) set at 21 (orange) and 50 (yellow) periods. It's grounded in the principles of mean reversion, using the VWAP as a reference point for buy or sell decisions.
It’s worth noting that the VWAP is one of the best indicators for intraday trading. It effectively balances price and volume throughout the day and gives intraday traders a clearer view of potential market direction.
Entry
Traders generally observe the VWAP to determine the market bias; if the price is above the VWAP, the bias is to sell, and if it is below, to buy.
An entry signal is typically considered when the 21-period HMA crosses over the 50-period HMA in the direction of the VWAP bias.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are usually placed above or below the nearest swing high or swing low.
Take Profit
Profits are commonly taken when the price either touches the VWAP or when a reverse HMA crossover occurs.
This strategy leverages the mean-reverting nature of financial markets. By aligning the shorter-term 21-period HMA with the longer-term 50-period HMA and using the VWAP as a directional filter, traders aim for more precise entries. The HMA is a highly responsive moving average, making it ideal for intraday trading.
The Bottom Line
In summary, these three intraday trading strategies can provide traders with distinct approaches to capitalise on market volatility. Each has its own unique advantages and can be implemented using our robust TickTrader platform. However, it’s worth remembering they should be modified in accordance with your trading approach. To practise these strategies and more, consider opening an FXOpen account for a comprehensive trading experience tailored for traders with any level of experience.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Big SPX Butterfly Will Probably Dictate Trend Direction. It does not feel like it, but bears have finally gotten to the point where we have the most value betting on a big reversal. But with that comes the fact we're also very close to the levels where bears would probably be best to forego bearishness for a considerable amount of time.
Let's start with the obvious objection to being a bear now, we're making new highs. Which in indices has historically meant the rally has a strong chance of going on. Shorting into the new high from the 2020 drop would not have been any fun. However, it's also a fact that in many tops there's a nominal spike out of the high before the real turn.
This was the case the 2007 high and has been something we could have known to look for from as early as Feb of 2023.
Click below to read more on those.
Indices are at long term resistance levels. The 2022 sell off came from a 4.23 extension of the 2000 - 2008 crash range. This was a unique event in our times. The last time this big version of a short signal fired was in 1929. There was a strong reaction to the 4.23 possible reversal level. We're above it again now, but we've just covered the spike outs thing.
Read more about that here.
If we draw a fib from the high to the low of the March 2020 drop we're now at the 2.61. Previous high was around the 2.20. So this has been implied as a possible big resistance level since the 2020 bull breakout.
Then completing in the area of this resistance we have the big butterfly pattern. Coming in with a 2.20 right where we are now (And I think 2.20 is a good spot for trading a butterfly). This is a butterfly built up over a couple years. it has multiple swings in it. Each one of those had to be exactly the size it was for the 2.20 to be here agreeing with all the other resistance levels.
Odds of that happening in a random walk are not big. So it's worth paying attention to the butterfly.
A successful butterfly would see this strong looking bullish action dwarfed by huge bear candles.
An early shock big move. A shallow bounce and then relentless selling. In the last leg of a harmonic (D) leg, it's expected for super strong bullish moves. But if the harmonic is successful - the bear move eclipses the bull move.
The successful harmonic could be the trigger that starts the downtrend spoken of after a spike out in 2023.
------
Bears here have their ideal confluence of setups for a short in the 5100 zone. Some extra tolerance for spike outs is needed but the range for where bear signals are valid is really small now, offering high RR.
But if this strong confluence of bear signals fails - we're probably going to see an aggressive uptrend. The failure of a bat and butterfly pattern both would imply strong upside moves. Even in a scenario where the market was close to making a high there'd be an explosive upside move to the next resistance (Filling the crab pattern).
I think at this point in time bears have everything they could ask for in a short setup. Now's a great time to take attempts at swing shorts. But now is also the time to get really definitive about the levels shorts fail. If the trend continues, it's likely to only get stronger. Trends don't weaken. They get stronger and stronger and die in a burst of glory.
If this isn't the burst of glory- you don't wanna be short during it.
Beware of Crypto scams- Rug PullsWith the crypto market on a strong run since October of last year and with many dreamers hoping for 100x or even 1000x returns, we must be extremely cautious of scammers.
In this article, I will explain one of the most common types of scams: Rug Pulls.
The term "rug pull" in the cryptocurrency industry refers to the moment when the founding team abruptly abandons the project and sells or removes all liquidity. The term originates from the phrase "pulling the rug out from under someone," meaning the unexpected withdrawal of support.
In 2021 alone, during the previous bull market, rug pulls were responsible for losses of approximately $2.8 billion, a figure close to historical highs and an 81% increase compared to 2020, according to a report by Chainalysis.
The cryptocurrency market is susceptible to such scams due to the lack of regulations from central authorities. Unlike traditional companies subject to strict government control, the decentralized nature of the crypto space allows for complete control by private entities. This makes it vulnerable to exploitation by these entities.
Types of rug pulls:
Liquidity Theft:
Liquidity theft is the most common type of rug pull. It involves a developer listing an altcoin on a decentralized exchange (DEX) where it can be traded with a top currency like Ethereum (ETH). To enable trading, the developer must create a liquidity pool.
The team generates hype around the new project and attracts investors. As more investors join the project, the coin's price rises, attracting others who believe the project is a viable opportunity. As the coin increases in value, the developer withdraws all ETH from the liquidity pool at some point, leaving investors in the pool with no way to exchange their now-worthless tokens.
Technical Manipulation:
Some developers intentionally design tokens with the aim of deceiving investors. Therefore, they will include specific lines of code to limit the ability of retail investors to sell, thereby controlling both demand and supply. Of course, they are the only ones capable of selling, and when the price has appreciated sufficiently, they will sell all the tokens they hold.
Dumping:
This means that developers or promoters who hold a large percentage of the total coins sell off their entire holdings. As new entities invest in the new cryptocurrency, they exchange their valuable cryptocurrencies such as BTC or ETH for the new cryptocurrency. As a result, when the price increases significantly, developers sell off all their tokens, causing the price of the cryptocurrency to plummet.
How to Protect Your Investments from Potential Rug Pulls?
Lack of a Website:
Not all projects start with a website, but many that intend to exist for a long time do. If the developers of the token you want to invest in don't have a personalized domain for their project, this is a clear warning to stay away. There are also fraudulent projects that have websites claiming to be under construction or launching soon.
Check the White Paper:
This is an excellent way to learn about the plans of the project you want to invest in. Check for the existence of such a document, as well as any discrepancies between the white paper and the website. ALSO, VERIFY IF THE TEAM IS AVAILABLE TO PROVIDE INFORMATION ON PLATFORMS SUCH AS REDDIT OR TELEGRAM. If a developer cannot answer basic questions about their project, this raises major red flags.
Anonymous Developers:
While the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the developer of Bitcoin, is not known for certain, the fact that a project you want to invest in has anonymous developers should raise concerns. If the developers of a cryptocurrency or DeFi project choose not to associate their names with it and remain in the shadows, they may have reasons for doing so, and it's best to avoid such a project.
Low Liquidity:
Low liquidity of a cryptocurrency means that it is difficult to convert it into fiat currency; therefore, the lower the liquidity, the easier it is for developers to manipulate the price. The best way to check the liquidity of a cryptocurrency is to analyze its trading volume over the past 24 hours. A general rule used by experienced investors is that the trading volume should be more than 10% of the coin's market capitalization.
Locked Liquidity:
To provide trust and enhance the public perception of their legitimacy, developers of serious projects will relinquish control over the liquidity pool by locking it in the blockchain often with a trusted third party. This process is called locked liquidity and prevents developers from trading with tokens from the pool, thereby making it impossible for them to steal or dramatically reduce liquidity. If liquidity is not locked, then nothing prevents developers from withdrawing their funds.
Low Total Locked Value (TLV):
TLV is another reliable measure to verify the legitimacy of a project. This term refers to the total amount invested in a particular project. Serious projects have a TLV of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, while newly emerging projects with only tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in TLV should definitely be avoided.
Token Distribution:
Checking the token distribution of a project on Etherscan or Binance Smart Chain explorer will show who holds the largest amount of tokens and how they are distributed. If a single wallet or two hold more than 5% of the total available, there is a risk that the price may be manipulated.
The Project lacks an Audit Report: The most notable projects will have independent audit reports in the fields of security and financial transparency, guaranteeing their authenticity. A project without an audit report is not necessarily fraudulent, but it means that you should research the project in detail before investing in it.
Losing investments through a rug pull is a common phenomenon; therefore, before investing in a project, it is wise to analyze the project, developers, liquidity, and also the developers' activity on social media platforms.
Additionally, you can opt to use online tools that can detect a potential rug pull. One of these tools is Token Sniffer. This site lists all the latest hacks and scam coins. Rug Doctor is another useful tool for detecting rug pulls. The site analyzes the code of crypto projects, attempting to identify the most common rug pull strategies.
Stay safe and good luck!
Mihai Iacob
Bad News for USD Longs?According to the US Dollar Index, dollar longs are under pressure. Despite still technically exhibiting an uptrend, there are signs of technical weakness emerging. Since topping at 104.97 in mid-February (just shy of resistance at 105.04), price action has tunnelled through support at 104.15 (now marked resistance) in addition to channel support, extended from the low of 100.62.
As you can see from the chart, buyers and sellers are now squaring off at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 103.72 and fast approaching neighbouring support at 103.62. Adding to the bearish vibe, we can see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under trendline support, taken from the low of 29.59, and also pushed through the 50.00 centreline, a move emphasising negative momentum.
Should sellers change gears here, therefore, and overthrow current supports, further underperformance could be on the table for the USD, targeting the 50-day SMA at 103.09 and support coming in at 102.92.
Our Strategy For "The Leap"Hey guys! Today, we explore 'The Leap', and our strategy for the competition.
It's easy to register if you haven't done so already.
In this video, we cover;
1.) DIRECTIONAL BIAS
2.) WHERE TO TRADE
3.) WHERE TO RISK
4.) POSITION MANAGEMENT
for the strategy we'll be using. It's a simple breakout strategy we're going to bring to a lower timeframe, so we can get enough trades in before the competition expires.
Good luck to all, we look forward to competing with you!
Want more high-quality trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
What Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to KnowWhat Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to Know.
Halving is the event of slashing Bitcoin's mining rewards every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. Read all about it here.
Table of Contents
Overview
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving?
Deep Dive into Blockchain
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Why Halving Matters?
The Big Picture
What About Bitcoin’s Price?
Halving and the Way Forward
Overview
Bitcoin’s halving is a milestone event for the crypto space. Essentially, halving pushes back the moment we see all 21 million BTC tokens pulled out of their cryptographic hash puzzles.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the individual or group who created Bitcoin , programmed it to a fixed amount of 21 million coins. In other words, the total amount of Bitcoin can never exceed 21 million. Presently, miners have picked up just over 19 million through a process called Bitcoin mining.
This amount is over 90% of the total supply with mining having started with the creation of Bitcoin 15 years ago. That leaves just about 2 million tokens to be unearthed before the final Bitcoin enters our dimension. How long should we wait until this mammoth of a milestone happens? More than a century, or around the year 2140 , according to forecasting wizards.
The logic behind this peculiar mechanism lies in the so-called halving and this guide will help you understand all about it.
What Is Bitcoin Halving?
Halving, in its simplest form, is the process of gradually reducing the rewards of Bitcoin mining. As we mentioned, Satoshi Nakamoto originally hard-coded Bitcoin to a fixed supply of 21 million. All of them will come to life at an increasingly slower rate. More precisely, the pace at which Bitcoin is created is “halved” every 210,000 blocks.
The current block reward is 6.25 Bitcoin as the last halving occurred on May 11th, 2020.
When's the Next Bitcoin Halving?
In April 2024, miners will add the next batch of 210,000 blocks. And that only means one thing - they will have their revenue immediately slashed in half to 3.125 Bitcoin.
All halvings are evenly spread out approximately every four years, consistent with Bitcoin’s hard-coded design. This way, supply will keep increasing, just at a slower clip. The reason is simple - the Bitcoin halving rewards will continue to reduce.
Deep Dive into Blockchain
In order for new Bitcoin to come into circulation, miners need to create blocks in a chain, hence the term ‘blockchain’.
Network operators—the hardworking miners—uncover blocks through computer-powered mining operations. These crypto diggers compute hashes as quickly as possible. What they do is search for the successful fixed-length output that they add to the block.
The more hashes per second (hashrate), the more chances for hacking out new blocks and adding them to the blockchain.
How Are Miners Rewarded?
Generally, miners have two ways to reward themselves for the effort. The first one is to earn revenue from transaction fees of users who send and receive Bitcoin. That’s when they act as decentralized network operators and validate transactions without a central authority.
At their height during the crypto boom in April 2021, the Bitcoin network fees reached as much as $60 per transaction and took hours to complete. After all, the network can only handle 4-7 transactions per second. To compare, payment giant Visa can validate 24,000 transactions per second.
Average transaction fee of Bitcoin, USD
Timeframe: April, 2021
Source: bitinfocharts.com
The other way to reward Bitcoin miners is to let them pocket the newly-minted Bitcoin contained in the block. Halving is basically a reward system for miners.
But more broadly, halving is part of the proof-of-work model associated with high levels of energy consumption. Millions of mining rigs soak up that energy and crank out new Bitcoin.
Why Halving Matters?
Halving the block reward for mining Bitcoin is a way to protect its integrity. This immutable feature of the OG crypto makes it stand out as a unique asset class. In this light, it is also an alternative to inflation-prone national currencies, also known as fiat money.
With that in mind, in a world that craves disruptive innovation, a technology that’s rewiring the global financial system has progressively moved into the limelight. The growing role of Bitcoin as a new investment vehicle is apparent, factoring in the elevated investor appetite .
Bitcoin transacts tens of billions of dollars of daily volumes, with a peak of more than $126 billion on May 19, 2021. The figure is sufficient to prove it has piqued the interest of enough crowds to form a market around it.
Before we revisit Bitcoin as an investable asset, let’s take a breather and trace the original crypto back to its origins where halving was introduced.
The Big Picture
Just over 15 years ago, the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto mined the initial “genesis” block . For the effort, the clandestine developer(s) earned a hefty reward of 50 Bitcoin. And also bothered to leave a message hooked to the chunk of transactions. The message read: " The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. "
Since then, the Bitcoin network has witnessed three halving events:
On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin’s block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
On July 9, 2016, Bitcoin’s block reward was slashed from 25 per block to 12.5 BTC.
The last one occurred on May 11, 2020, when the reward was axed to 6.25 BTC.
The next Bitcoin halving event is on deck for April 19, 2024. Rewards will fall to 3.125 BTC.
The Bitcoin halving dates may vary and we're yet to get a confirmation over the next one. Estimations indicate that every 10 minutes or so all network operators add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain. With the current reward of 6.25 Bitcoin per block, miners dig out around 900 new Bitcoin a day.
At today’s prices , this is equal to around $50 million worth of Bitcoin extracted daily. This is where the halving becomes interesting not just to the geeks among us.
Halving events play a key part in shaping up supply and demand and weigh on the price of Bitcoin. Speaking of price movement, how does the rate at which new Bitcoin is churned out affect valuations?
What About Bitcoin's Price?
Bitcoin, as the world’s first cryptocurrency in a sea of many, is the quintessence of scarcity premium. Investment professionals are quick to say that Bitcoin carries a unique glamor as the only large tradeable asset with a predictable emission leading to a hard cap.
In that light, analysts consider Bitcoin to be the newest entrant in the store-of-value category. An investment product that holds its purchasing power over time. Ideally coming with consistent price increases.
This is possible thanks to halving - the brilliant mechanism hard-wired into the Bitcoin protocol. The minds behind the original digital currency conceived it as deflationary. A concept alien to the present financial system, flooded with central-bank cash and government stimulus.
The reason is that, contrary to fiat currencies that inflate over time, Bitcoin should not be debased by inflation. Satoshi Nakamoto explained this inflation-rate flaw in an online forum around the time of Bitcoin’s inception.
"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”
Halving and the Way Forward
If there’s a need to draw broad conclusions, here are some of the more salient points to make a compelling argument.
Bitcoin’s purchasing power is likely to avoid debasement thanks to the halving mechanism. With less than 10% of Bitcoin still to come to the surface, it will take more than 100 years for the last unmined Bitcoin to pop out.
Once all the 21 million Bitcoin spring to life, miners will no longer stake their livelihood on uncovering new tokens. Instead, they will earn revenue from network fees for their work on validating transactions. But that’s only if the network sticks to the plan.
FAQ
❔ "What is the purpose of halving?"
► Halving maintains a decreasing pace of block rewards, which emphasizes on the idea of scarcity in Bitcoin.
❔ "When is the next Bitcoin halving?"
► The next Bitcoin halving event is scheduled to occur on April 19, 2024. This date is approximate, and the actual date may be different, depending on the time it takes to complete one full batch of 210,000 blocks.
❔ "Is halving related to price increase?"
► Technically, when the supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half, and demand remains the same, prices may go up. But the price discovery of Bitcoin does not obey archetype models of economics.
❔ "When will the last Bitcoin be mined?"
► Estimates point that the last available Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140.
Bitcoin: 52K High New Wave Count.Bitcoin has pushed the 50K resistance area and peaked in the 52Ks. The recent bearish pin bar has signaled a swing trade short which is not following through (no surprise there). Over the coming week it is within reason to see a retest of the 48K area support. This is the price location where a high probability swing trade long setup can appear and where I am preparing for a signal.
In my previous articles, you will notice that I had a "B?" in the 46 to 48K resistance area. That was what I was waiting for the market to confirm, but the market never confirmed. We got a resistance break and run to 52K instead. A move like this calls for a new wave count which you can see on my chart now.
This illustrates an important point: you cannot get married to wave counts because the market does whatever IT wants to do. One drawback to wave counts is you have to relabel after the fact. They only serve as a basic guide that the market will either confirm or NOT.
The new wave count presents an impulse wave with 3 legs complete, with a potential 4th wave developing. This implies there is one more wave higher which can lead price into the 55K or 60K areas over the next few weeks (IF it follows through). This impulse would actually be the 5th wave (which I thought was completed at the previous test of 50K). This also means once 5 waves are complete, the probability of a broader corrective wave to follow becomes greater.
At this point, the plan is simple: WAIT for retrace to 48K area support and look for buy signal on larger time frames. IF this opportunity unfolds I will point it out to my members along with the other parameters such as stop and take profit prices.
The broader Wave C (monthly) that I have been pointing out in recent articles is also a LOW probability scenario unless or until the 40K support is broken. Again the key to this game is knowing how to adjust to new information, NOT getting stuck on opinions. The market changes and we must change our expectations with it if you want to be aligned with the probabilities.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Understanding Momentum to filter out the Best SetupsIn the video I discuss how I analyse momentum using MACDs and the 5min and 1min charts when daytrading.
Knowing these key concepts helps me filter out the best setups to get on the right side of the market and in the right trading zones.
The basic concepts discussed are :
- Momentum
- Price Action
- Candle Analysis
- Multi-timeframe Analysis
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more ideas and learning material **
** Any Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
Live stream - Forex Market Analysis (20th February) with SpecialI host daily Pre-London live forex market analysis sessions to guide and educate you through the daily process of trading. I look at the major currency pairs and Gold. I will also analyze other pairs or instruments based on request from the audience.
The TradingView Digest - February 20thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes an informative post about Apple’s valuation, a strategy for trading opening range breakout, a hot script on Ichimoku Oscillator, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
💡 Apple’s Valuation
When we look at Apple historically, the valuation is higher than average, with lower than average sales growth. Compare today's prices to the low prices of 2013, 2016, and 2018/2019, and you can see that you could buy Apple at 2.13, 2.20, and 2.68 times sales, with sales growing at sharply higher rates compared to now, where sales are growing at the slowest rate and reaching a peak valuation at 8.02 times sales.
By timwest
💡 Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy
Open Range Breakout (ORB) is a simple strategy that day traders use in relatively low-volatility markets. The Opening Range usually refers to the highest and lowest prices within the first 15 to 60 minutes of the market opening. These levels then serve as your resistance and support, guiding your trading plan for the day.
By Zeiierman
📰 Top Stories
Coinbase Stock Pops 14% on First Quarterly Profit Since 2021 as Trading Picks Up
Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF Holdings Near 110K BTC
Why high-yield bond ETFs may deliver 'surprise' outperformance in fixed income in 2024
Microsoft's $3.44B German AI Investment
UK Records Biggest Monthly Retail Sales Rise Since April 2021
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
Eni Earnings Fall on Lower Energy Prices
Alliant Energy's Q4 Earnings Rise, Revenue Falls; 2024 Outlook Maintained
Airbus Posts Lower FY23 Net Income; Revenue Grows
IAMGOLD Corp reports results for the quarter ended in December
Schneider Electric Reports Growth in FY23 Net Income, Revenue
💡🎥 Thoughts and Analysis on US30
What a solid run we have seen until the CPI data! After the US CPI came in hotter than expected, it shocked the market, leading to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD). Is this merely a buying opportunity, or could it signal a potential momentum change? Watch the video to find out.
By Eightcap
🆕 TradingView and Coin Metrics: New Era in Crypto Asset Analysis
Coin Metrics, renowned in crypto financial intelligence, has now integrated its dataset into the TradingView platform. Coin Metrics brings robust data on crypto networks, enriching the decisions of traders and investors with accurate information. Through this partnership, over 50 million TradingView users now have access to even more detailed and comprehensive information to analyze crypto assets.
By TradingView
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Ichimoku Oscillator
This script utilizes various Ichimoku Cloud features to identify trend and potential entry/exit levels.
By LonesomeTheBlue
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“There is never a rush to buy or sell.”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
TradingView Team
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GBP/JPY’s Break & Retest PatternGBP/JPY’s recent price action has formed a bullish Break & Retest pattern – an underrated pattern which represents a structured way to navigate breakouts.
Here’s the three key components of GBP/JPY’s Break & Retest pattern:
1. The Breakout: On Tuesday, GBP/JPY made a decisive move higher, breaking above a significant resistance level.
2. The Retest: Following the breakout, prices retraced back to the level of the previously breached resistance. This pullback is a crucial component of the Break & Retest pattern, providing traders with a chance to confirm the legitimacy of the breakout.
3. The Reversal: The confirmation of the Break & Retest pattern came on Thursday when a bullish hammer candle formed. This reversal candle is indicative of the broken resistance now acting as support, aligning perfectly with the principles of the Break & Retest pattern. The market then pushed higher on Friday.
GBP/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Trading the GBP/JPY Break & Retest:
Identifying and Anticipating: Traders who had identified the key resistance level in GBP/JPY prior to the breakout were well-positioned to anticipate the development of the Break & Retest pattern. Utilising price alerts would have been particularly beneficial to notify traders of both the breakout and the subsequent retest.
Entry Points: The entry point for a bullish scenario involves strategically placing an entry order just above the high of the reversal candle. This ensures that traders enter the market with confirmation of the newfound support.
Stop-loss Placement: Proper risk management is crucial. In a bullish scenario like this, a stop loss could be positioned below both the low of the reversal pattern and the broken resistance level, protecting against unexpected downturns.
Price Targets: Traders have the flexibility to set a price target based on market structure or risk. With the GBP/JPY Break & Retest, targeting the next key level or support based on market structure, or opting for a price target twice the size of the risk, could be considered.
Risk Management:
As with any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Traders engaging with the GBP/JPY Break & Retest pattern should implement proper risk management techniques, including position sizing, staying informed with the economic calendar, and diversifying their trading portfolio.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Nvidia Q424 preview – this needs to be on everyone risk radar Whether trading equity, equity indices or even FX, Nvidia’s Q424 earnings (due after-market on 21 Feb) should be firmly on the risk radar. Markets could come alive with movement and traders may need to dynamically react.
How the Nvidia share price reacts immediately after its earnings results and CEO Jensen Huang’s guidance could have far-reaching implications - not just for those holding exposures in Nvidia equity CFDs - but for those with open positions in NAS100 and US500, and even risk FX, such as AUD, NZD, and NOK.
Nvidia is a true market darling – it hits the sweet spot in A.I revolution, which may not be a completely new theme, but given the sheer rate of change in the evolution market participants still have very low conviction when it comes to forecasting future cash flows. This inability to price certainty only increases the volatility.
Looking at consensus expectations on sales, margins, and earnings may not prove to be overly worthwhile, given fundamentals mean little for what is essentially a pure momentum vehicle like Nvidia.
It’s the commentary and guidance and the tone of the outlook that inspires investors, notably around its long-term data centre sales. We can explicate how the business is likely tracking from recent earnings numbers from the likes of AMD, SMCI and TSMC, and given the strong trends we’ve seen of late can assume sales are growing at a solid clip.
Options structures price big moves on earnings
If we look at the options market, the implied or expected move for the day of reporting sits at an impressive -/+11%. That level of implied volatility could indeed be mispriced, but an -/+11% move for a company with a $1.83t market cap would be staggering.
When we consider that Nvidia has the fourth largest weight on both the S&P500 and NAS100, commanding a 4% and 5% weighting on each index respectively, an -/+11% move could have significant implications – especially if the move in Nvidia’s share price spreads into other A.I and mega-cap tech names, which it most probably would.
Should we see a move in US equity futures it would likely impact the USD and risk FX, such as the AUD, NZD, or NOK.
Staying in the options space, we see that Nvidia’s 1-week call options (10% out-of-the-money) currently commands an implied volatility of 100.8%, a clear premium over 1-week put options (with strikes 10% out of the money) at 85%. This is rare, as put option implied vol is typically higher than calls, given the increased relative demand to use put options to hedge against equity drawdown.
We also see that 9 of the top 10 most traded options strikes recently (expiring on 23 Feb) are traders buying call options, which just adds to the view that equity traders are positioning portfolios for higher levels and remain incredibly bullish on their near-term prospects.
The bottom line – Nvidia’s share price is not being driven by fundamentals – valuation matters little – it is all order flows and momentum. What matters to traders here is that the market expects a huge move on the day of earnings, and this could send ripples through broader markets. This creates opportunity but it also is a risk for traders that needs to be managed – put Nvidia on the risk radar.
Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy - Plus Divergences!Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy: A Comprehensive Guide
The 70/30 RSI technique stands out as a popular and effective method for making informed decisions in the financial markets. Leveraging the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, this strategy empowers traders to navigate the complexities of buying and selling various financial instruments, from stocks to currencies. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of the 70/30 RSI trading strategy, exploring its fundamentals and practical application in forex trading.
Understanding the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy:
Developed by renowned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder, the RSI indicator serves as a powerful tool for evaluating market strength and identifying overbought and oversold conditions. With a range from 0 to 100, the RSI provides traders with crucial insights into market dynamics, enabling them to make timely trading decisions.
At the heart of the 70/30 RSI strategy lies the establishment of two key threshold levels on the RSI indicator: 70 for overbought conditions and 30 for oversold conditions. These thresholds serve as crucial markers for generating buy or sell signals, offering traders valuable guidance in navigating market trends.
⭐️ Adding and Setting Up the RSI Indicator on Your Chart:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator is a freely available tool accessible within your TradingView Platform, irrespective of your subscription plan. Whether you're using a Free membership or one of the Premium plans, you can easily find and add this indicator to your charts. Below, I'll guide you through the process of adding and customizing the RSI indicator on your platform with the help of the following images.
To begin adding the RSI indicator to your chart:👇
You can also customize the colors to your preference, just like I did by selecting your favorite ones.👇
Now, let's delve into what the RSI indicator is and how to interpret it.
Interpreting RSI Signals:
In essence, an RSI reading of 30 or lower signals an oversold market, suggesting that the prevailing downtrend may be ripe for reversal, presenting an opportunity to buy. Conversely, a reading of 70 or higher indicates overbought conditions, implying that the ongoing uptrend may be nearing exhaustion, presenting an opportunity to sell.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) Explained:
As a momentum indicator, the RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, providing traders with insights into whether a security is overvalued or undervalued. Displayed as an oscillator on a scale of zero to 100, the RSI not only identifies overbought and oversold conditions but also highlights potential trend reversals or corrective pullbacks in a security's price.
Practical Application of the RSI Strategy:
Traders employing the 70/30 RSI strategy must exercise caution, as sudden and sharp price movements can lead to false signals. While RSI readings of 70 or above indicate overbought conditions and readings of 30 or less indicate oversold conditions, traders must consider additional factors and use other technical indicators to validate signals and avoid premature trades.
Let's examine a few examples.
Example No. 1: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe
On the EUR/USD daily timeframe, we observed an overbought condition indicated by the RSI rising above the 70 level. This signaled a potential reversal in price direction. Subsequently, the price indeed reversed, confirming the overbought scenario.
It's crucial to emphasize that while scenarios above the 70 RSI level or below the 30 RSI level suggest potential reversals in price, it's essential to complement your analysis with additional filters. These may include consideration of the economic environment, effective risk management strategies, and identification of triggers or patterns before initiating a trade. Below, I'll illustrate a potential trigger that aligns with the RSI 70/30 strategy: the crossover of the RSI line with the RSI-based moving average (MA).
Example No. 2:
In this example, the RSI strategy proved effective as we observed the price falling below the 30 level, indicating potential oversold conditions and a forthcoming reversal from the market's potential bottom. Additionally, in the image below, you'll notice the introduction of white lines, known as "divergences." I'll provide a clearer explanation of divergences in the next example.
Example No. 3:
In this example, denoted as circle N.3, we encounter another instance of the RSI reaching the 70 level, indicating an overbought condition. Once again, the strategy proves effective, but this time, we notice a shallower reversal compared to the previous two examples.
Following this reversal, the price experiences growth, presenting a new opportunity for traders with a subsequent higher high. However, unlike before, this high does not breach the 70 RSI level, resulting in a deeper reversal.
This scenario exemplifies a "divergence."
But what exactly is divergence trading?
Divergence trading revolves around the concept of higher highs and lower lows.
When the price achieves higher highs, you would expect the oscillator (in this case, the RSI) to also record higher highs. Conversely, if the price makes lower lows, you anticipate the oscillator to follow suit, registering lower lows as well.
When they fail to synchronize, with the price and the oscillator moving in opposite directions, divergence occurs, hence the term "divergence trading."
I'm confident that the previous three examples were well explained to help you understand the 70/30 RSI strategy, along with the MA moving average trigger and the relative divergence strategy. Please share your thoughts in the comment section below.
Key Considerations and Limitations:
While the 70/30 RSI strategy offers valuable insights into market dynamics, traders must remain mindful of its limitations. True reversal signals can be rare and challenging to identify, necessitating a comprehensive approach that incorporates other technical indicators and aligns with the long-term trend.
In Conclusion:
The 70/30 RSI trading strategy represents a powerful framework for navigating the complexities of the financial markets. By leveraging the insights provided by the RSI indicator, traders can make well-informed decisions, identify lucrative trading opportunities, and optimize their trading strategies for success in various market conditions.
Live stream - The Week Ahead - Daily Pitch Int. with Darius AnucNikkei225, China50, ASX200, DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq100, DAX40, FTSE100, DXY, Gold, Silver, WTI Oil, NatGas, Cocoa, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Dogecoin, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD, NZDJPY, NZDCHF, CHFJPY, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDMXN, GBPNZD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD.
GBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year HighGBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year High
According to CNN, the economies of the UK and Japan entered a technical recession last week as data showed a second consecutive quarterly decline in gross domestic product. And if in the UK the economic downturn can be associated with high inflation and the strict policies of the Bank of England, then in Japan the reason may be the population decline (which has been going on for 14 years in a row).
At the same time, the GBP/JPY chart shows that last week the rate exceeded 190 yen per pound for the first time since August 2015.
However:
→ the price is at the upper border of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ at the beginning of this week, the price of GBP/JPY is below the 190 yen level – and a false bullish breakout of the psychological level should be regarded as a bearish sign;
→ the MACD indicator indicates that demand forces are fading.
Perhaps market participants are inclined to take profits from longs. Since it is possible that the Japanese authorities are able to announce some decisions aimed at supporting the yen. In this case, one of the immediate targets for the bears may be the level of 186 yen per pound – where the support level (formerly the resistance level) is located, reinforced by the median line of the long-term channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How-To: Use the TradingView Paper Trading featureTradingView's Paper Trading isn't just for practice; it's a detailed educational platform that closely simulates the real trading environment, all without the risk of losing money. This feature is carefully crafted to mimic actual market scenarios, offering users a realistic preview of how their trading plans might fare.📖🧾
The video is packed with valuable tips 💡 on making the most of the Paper Trading feature. From initiating your paper trading account to executing trades, tracking your positions, and evaluating your trading approach, this guide is essential for anyone looking to refine their trading skills on TradingView.
Engaging in paper trading means more than just trial runs; it integrates you into a community of well-informed traders. It encourages the prudent, yet proactive mindset advocated by TradingView. Such a strategy distinguishes the most successful traders. 📈
In summary, the Paper Trading feature reflects TradingView's dedication to providing its users with the necessary knowledge 📚 and tools ⚒️ for trading success. It champions the "look first, then leap" approach, ensuring that your venture into trading is informed, confident, and well-prepared. Immerse yourself in the video 🎥, delve into the Paper Trading feature, and start your path to becoming a knowledgeable and prosperous trader. 💹
❓Have you tried our Paper Trading feature yet? How did you find it? Love it 🥰, hate it 👎🏽, we want to know especially with our upcoming competition where you could win up to $10,000 paper trading right here on TradingView.
More on that later ⏰ ;)
Happy trading, and always remember – look first, then leap! 👀🦘
ℹ️ More info on the TradingView Paper Trading feature can be found here:
www.tradingview.com
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Possible Short & Mid-term Targets for EGLDUSDTGreetings,
In the scenario that the price does not lose the blue box ($57), I expect it to go to the supply zone at $65+ as the first target.
If it can cross the supply zone, the upper resistance levels can be targeted.
In a scenario where the price loses the blue box, the other area I would look for support would be around the green box ($50).
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Post-CPIToday's focus: US30
Pattern – Diagonal
Support – 38,135, 37,135
Resistance – 38,810
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 on the daily chart.
What a solid run we have seen till yesterday's CPI data. After US CPI came in hotter than expected, this shocked the market and led to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD).
We have broken down price action, price patterns and levels we are watching. Is this nothing more than a buying opportunity, or is this a potential momentum change?
Good trading.
Apple Valuation Graphed to 2009The valuation of NASDAQ:AAPL shares is always an interesting challenge and historically you can view the range of valuation that Apple shares have traded at using the powerful tools that TradingView has for you.
Here is a template you can easily make a copy of using the "share" button at the bottom of the graph. Once you click "share" you will see a "make it mine" button to click on an make yourself a copy to use as a template for your other stocks.
This is a powerful way to view your companies you invest in and see how they are valued.
1. Free cash flow
2. PS Ratio (How many times the annual revenues of the company is the market capitalization of the equity)
3. Shares Outstanding (Very important to know if a company is giving shares away to employees each year creating a drag on the earnings or are they buying back stock with borrowed money. Better yet, are they retiring stock with free cash flow.)
4. Long term debt (See above) Is the company borrowing more and more to grow and putting itself at risk
5. Total Revenue (Not inflation adjusted)
6. Market Capitalization (Value of stock only, not enterprise value which includes debt)
When we look at Apple shares here historically, the valuation is higher than average with lower than average sales growth. Compare today's prices to the low prices of 2013-2016-2018/2019 you can see you could buy Apple at 2.13, 2.20, 2.68 times sales with sales growing at sharply higher rates versus now with sales growing at the slowest rate with a peak in valuation at 8.02 times sales.
So, in effect, NASDAQ:AAPL is significantly more expensive relative to low valuation levels.
Valuation isn't a timing mechanism for entering and exiting stocks but you can use it to understand the relative valuation of stocks in your portfolio and the investible universe of stocks.
Knowledge is power and this data at least helps you to point out the downside risk to previous low valuation cycles.
Cheers,
Tim
Friday, February 9, 2024 11:54AM EST
$189.67 last NASDAQ:AAPL
The TradingView Digest - February 13thHello, readers! We're delighted to announce the relaunch of our Weekly Digest, now optimized for an improved reading experience.
Join us for a knowledge-enriched learning journey. Without delay, let's dive in! 🙂
In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community. This includes an informative post about Stan Weinstein's stage analysis, a video tutorial on market liquidity, a hot script on volume footprint, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events. 🔥
⦿ Stan Weinstein’s method of Stage Analysis
Stage analysis is a powerful technique in trading that segments market trends into distinct phases, each offering unique opportunities and challenges. Developed by Stan Weinstein, this method helps traders understand and anticipate market movements.
By FXOpen
⦿ Understanding Liquidity
Liquidity is essentially composed of orders in the marketplace. Since trading operates as a zero-sum game, without liquidity, trading becomes impossible. To put it simply, if you want to buy, you need someone to sell to you, and vice versa.
By TradinG_Grace
⦿ Top Stories
SoftBank Swings to Surprise $6.4B Profit After Four Down Quarters, Arm Stake Nets $16B
Intel Chip Sales Halted by German Court
Bitcoin Halving Preparations Prompt Surge in Miner Outflows: Bitfinex Insights
Pharmacy Chains Are in a World of Hurt. Blame Shrinking Drug Reimbursements
Cloudflare's stock catapults 24% higher as earnings bring 'a lot to like'
⦿ Earnings
Earnings highlights from the previous week:
Alibaba's Q3 Earnings Fall, Approves $25B Buyback
Ford's Q4 Revenue Up 4%
Costco's Net Sales Rise in 2024
Adobe's Earnings to Rise 15.3%
⦿ How to Create a Solid Portfolio
Building a strong portfolio can be challenging for most investors. Knowing easy ways to start that journey can greatly improve your performance as an investor. In this post, we'll show you how to better pick stocks, using the NAS100 as an example.
By thesharkke
⦿ Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum Ratio
Gold is a preferred precious metal driven by consumer jewelry demand, investment, and monetary policies. Platinum, also precious, is used for jewelry and somewhat as an investment. Unlike gold (6% industrial demand), platinum relies heavily on industry (73%).
By mintdotfinance
⦿ Script of the Week
Volume Footprint Voids
This script aims to plot single candle profiles and their own footprints. It uses lower timeframe calculations to plot different styles of single candle POC and can be used for scalping, finding precise entries and exits, and spotting potential trapped traders, etc.
By StratifyTrade
⦿ Our Weekly Thought
Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly.
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
- TradingView Team ❤️
