Bitcoin's Final Make Or Break MomentThis is my first post in some time. As I stated before, I'm largely moving on from crypto. I'm still here, paying attention to the market. I've also created a site for my fiction writing. Eventually, I may migrate some of these posts over there as representations of my non-fiction speculative market analysis.
Anyway, on to the important stuff.
Bitcoin did not succeed as a currency. Active addresses have still not seen any meaningful increase since 2017. The rate of growth for authentic currency adoption has slowed down along with price growth and expensiveness. studio.glassnode.com
There are only about 1 million active addresses. Nevertheless, price continues to be resilient. Perhaps this is due to its limited supply and its pivot in narrative to a "store of value." Indeed, it has been a pretty lucrative store of value, though more volatile than the stock market and other commodities. This doesn't necessarily make it a "good" store of value.
Regardless of what I think, the market will make its decision. Now is the time for that to happen. With ETFs supposedly on the horizon, we will get to see how much demand really exists for Bitcoin.
I'm going to take this moment to speculate a bit. If it continues to go up, my guess is it will be because of the ETF hype, but volume amongst most spot exchanges will remain low. Bitcoin dominance would likely rise to levels not seen since 2019. If it results in a bubble, eventually people will come to their senses and there will be a pop. It will attract a lot of media and government attention, not all of it positive.
If it drops from here, it will be like all the other times people had high hopes for Bitcoin. It will be like all the times Bitcoin was supposed to represent economic freedom. It will be like every single time Bitcoin made major news, only for everyone to talk about it just as it was about to crash. It will not come as any surprise.
If the ETFs fail to sustain the market to new highs, then I think there is little other chance for this asset, at least in the near future, until some other narrative takes hold. The thing exists, and as long as it does, people will ascribe their hopes, dreams, and (in my case) disdain towards it.
What would be a departure would be continued price appreciation and adoption. But, with a finite supply, there is of course a limit to how much people can buy. Then, what happens to it?
We shouldn't forget the other side of this market (apart from the ETF hype and the coin accumulation that requires). Binance is still a thing. BNB is still a juggernaut. Tron is still a thing, and so is the big stablecoin cartel which likely revolves around both.
But I'll spare you all my other thoughts on this subject. I just wanted to post a chart update, to show that I'm at least paying attention.
As for technicals, my chart shows two options. If it continues to hold in this broadening wedge pattern, the next target could be $90k, or roughly 2x from here, surpassing the previous all time high. As much as my previous analysis will be wrong if that happens, it's a possibility. The other scenario shows what could happen on a breakdown, back below the broadening pattern.
Here's the BLX chart, showing that Bitcoin has so far been rejected at a former long term trendline. This chart shows some more possibilities.
Let's see if it can break back above.
Zoomed out:
Either way, prepare for volatility!
As always, thank you so much for reading. This is not financial advice, but meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Community ideas
VOLATILITY IN THE FOREX MARKETHello Forex traders. Today we are going to talk about the concept of Volatility in the Forex market. We will talk about what it is, what volatility depends on, and most importantly how we can use this data to build and improve our own trading strategies and, as a result, get more profit from trading.
What Is Volatility?
Volatility is the range of price changes from high to low during a trading day, week, or month. The higher the volatility, the higher the range during the trading time period. This is considered to be a higher risk for your positions, but it gives you more opportunities to earn money. Volatility can be measured over different time periods. If we open a daily chart and measure the distance from high to low, we will get the volatility of the day:
It turns out that on the chart above, it was 121 pips.
We can also measure on another timeframe, for example, weekly chart. The distance from the high point to the low point was 162 pips. The total volatility during the week was 162 points. Volatility can be measured within a trading session or within a trading hour. This allows us to conclude that it is a fractal value.
As a rule, the average volatility for the last candles is taken into account. If we take daily charts, the average volatility is usually considered for the last 10 days. Roughly speaking, the last 10 candles are summarized and divided by 10.
What Does Volatility Depend On?
It depends on the number of trades in the market, players, trading sessions, the general state of the economy of a currency, and, of course, on speculation. It depends on how speculative the market is about a given currency. Note that volatility can be measured both in points and in percent. But it should be noted that most often, the volatility of stocks is measured in percent. In forex, it is more usual to measure in pips. If you are told that the average price change of EURUSD is 0.7%, you can easily convert it into pips. And vice versa, you can calculate percentages from points if you need them for any research. Now let's move on to the most important question.
How To Apply Volatility Data For Profit?
It's actually quite simple. As they say, everyone knows about it, but no one applies it. This is especially true for intraday trading. Nobody wants to apply the simplest rule.
Suppose you know that the average volatility of GBPUSD is 120 pips. Question: if the price has moved up 100 pips from the beginning of the day, should you open a buy position? The answer is obvious, we should not. Because the probability that the price will go up another number of pips is too low. Therefore, we should not open a buy position and on the contrary, we should focus on bearish positions. But for some reason people forget about this simple technique and follow their system. I believe that it is absolutely necessary to include volatility, at least on intraday strategies, in your checklist for market entry.
The same can be done with higher timeframes. Let's imagine that we know that GBPUSD has an average weekly volatility of 200 pips. If the pair has moved 50 pips since Monday, we can expect that if the price continues to move down, there is a potential of about 150 pips. Of course, there are days when some movements become bigger or smaller, but we try to rely on statistics. With its help we can calculate the sizes of stops and take-outs. If we decided to be guided by the volatility data and open a sale on the pound, then we would try not to put a large (relative to the weekly timeframe) take profit. Because our expectation within the week is 150 pips.
If the average volatility of a pair is 200 pips, it is silly to expect 1000 pips move. At least within a week. Thus, volatility can also be used for risk calculations. If you have opened many positions on different pairs, you can calculate what will happen if all stop-losses are triggered. Of course, the market is not obliged to obey your calculations, but it gives some support for your convenience and trading.
Volatility-based Indicator
The first indicator is ATR
Average True Range indicator invented in 1972. It shows the average volatility and it is used most often to set targets and stop losses. The value of the indicator is multiplied by a multiplier and thus calculate the stop loss or and/or take profit. The calculations will automatically change depending on the current volatility.
Volatility is higher, take profit becomes higher. Volatility is smaller and take profit becomes smaller.
The next indicator is the CCI
It is based on average price and moving average data. It is used as an oscillator, that is, when it is in the oversold zone, it is recommended to buy. And when it is in the overbought zone, it is recommended to sell.
Another indicator, which is known to everyone, is Bollinger Bands
They consist of a standard moving average and a moving average plus and minus standard deviation, which is calculated based on price. These bands are used most often to determine the limits of movement from the standard average. We can draw conclusions based on this indicator about the end of the movement, correction, etc.
Conclusion
In this article I have tried to give you an understanding of what volatility is in the forex market and most importantly how we can apply it in our trading. I hope that it will help you in developing and adjusting your own trading systems.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Fib Circles in TradingFibonacci circles, a unique tool in the trading arsenal, offer a compelling blend of technical analysis and mathematical beauty. Rooted in the Fibonacci sequence, they provide traders with a distinct perspective on market trends and potential reversal points. This article delves into the practical application of Fibonacci circles, shedding light on how they can be integrated with other trading tools for more nuanced insights.
Background on the Fibonacci Sequence and Its Application in Trading
The Fibonacci sequence, discovered by Leonardo of Pisa in the 13th century, is a series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. This sequence, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so forth, holds a mathematical ratio commonly found in nature, art, and architecture. In the financial markets, these ratios, particularly the 61.8% (often referred to as the “golden ratio”), 38.2%, and 23.6%, are used in Fibonacci-based trading methods.
Traders apply these ratios to identify potential reversal levels on price charts, believing that markets might retract or extend by these Fibonacci percentages after a price movement. This belief stems from the observation that financial markets often exhibit patterns and structures that resonate with Fibonacci's mathematical harmony, leading traders to use these ratios for analysing future price movements.
Understanding Fib Circles
Using the Fibonacci sequence, circles can be created. They overlay circular arcs onto a price chart, where each arc represents a potential support or resistance level based on Fibonacci ratios. To construct a Fibonacci circle, one first identifies two significant price points, typically a high and a low. From these points, a circle is drawn, expanding outward in arcs that expand in proportion to the Fibonacci ratios.
The arcs intersect the price axis at key levels, like 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, suggesting areas where the market price might experience support or resistance. Extension levels, like 161.8% and 423.6%, are also commonly plotted. This tool is particularly valuable in identifying potential reversal points in market trends.
The Fibonacci spiral circle adds another dimension to analysis, though it’s a separate tool. It visually represents the natural spiral found in the Fibonacci sequence. These spirals can help traders anticipate the speed and trajectory of a price movement within the context of a broader trend.
How to Use Fib Circles in Trading
When utilising trading circles, traders often begin by selecting two significant points on the chart, such as a high and a low. In a bullish trend, this is from a recent swing high to a previous low; in a bearish trend, it’s from a recent swing low to a prior high. The distance between these points is divided by Fibonacci ratios, creating a series of concentric circles. Each represents a potential level where price action might stall or reverse.
Traders typically use these circles to gauge market sentiment and potential trend changes. When the price approaches or touches a level, many prefer to observe the market's reaction, looking for signs of support or resistance. If the price bounces off the line, it could indicate a potential reversal point.
In addition to identifying support and resistance, Fib circles can offer insights into the strength of a trend. A strong trend might see the price break through several levels, while a weakening trend could struggle to surpass them.
While Fibonacci circles can be a valuable tool, traders recognise the importance of context. Market conditions, news events, and other technical indicators are considered alongside these circles. They, therefore, are not standalone predictive tools but part of a broader analytical approach in trading.
Integrating Fib Circles with Other Technical Analysis Tools
Incorporating Fibonacci circles into a broader technical analysis framework enhances their effectiveness in trading. Traders often combine them with other tools for a more comprehensive market analysis. Head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started with over 1,200+ of these trading tools.
One common integration is with moving averages, which help in identifying the prevailing market trend. For example, when a Fib circle level aligns with a key moving average, it can signal a stronger potential support or resistance area.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another tool that pairs well with Fibonacci circles. When the RSI shows overbought or oversold conditions and the price reaches a Fib circle level, it may indicate a higher likelihood of a price reversal.
Additionally, candlestick patterns are utilised in conjunction with Fibonacci circles to validate potential reversal signals. The presence of a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern at a key level can provide further confirmation of a trade opportunity.
Best Practices for Using Fib Circles
Using Fib circles effectively requires specific strategies. Here are some practices you may want to know:
Accurate Placement: Make sure the starting points for the Fibonacci circles are accurately placed at significant highs and lows. This accuracy is crucial for relevant support and resistance levels.
Context Consideration: It’s best to use Fib circles in conjunction with overall market trends and patterns. They aren’t the only consideration when entering a trade.
Confirmation: Wait for price action confirmation when the price reaches a notable level. Candlestick patterns or other indicators can support the potential reversal or continuation.
Adjustment and Flexibility: Be prepared to adjust the circles as new highs and lows form. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and flexibility is key.
Conservative Use in High Volatility: During periods of high market volatility, it’s a good idea to be more conservative in interpreting Fib circles, as price swings can be erratic and less predictable.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, mastering Fibonacci circles can greatly enhance your market analysis. These tools, when used effectively, offer deeper insights into market trends and potential reversals. For traders looking to apply these strategies in real-time markets, opening an FXOpen account can be a valuable step. We provide high-speed execution and tight spreads to put these techniques into practice and refine your trading skills. Happy trading!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
OMUSDT Potential Breakout Structure📊 BINANCE:OMUSDT is currently nestled in the tight base of a Falling Wedge pattern. Keep a close eye on the support level around 0.017, as a critical price to break sits at 0.024. Key resistances and upcoming targets are at:
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: 0.036
Target 2: 0.057
Target 3: 0.084
Target 4: 0.123
Regardless of the market situation, remember to use appropriate stop loss. A prudent approach is to set the stop loss below the support zone, with a weekly candle closing around 0.016 as a viable option.
Stay vigilant and keep an eye on the charts! 🚀
USDCAD Trading Strategy: Technical and Order Flow Analysis ! Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
Eli Lilly Challenges Falling TrendlineEli Lilly spent the fourth quarter consolidating gains, and now trend followers may expect further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the peaks of November and December. Prices tried to fight above that resistance yesterday, creating potential for a breakout.
The pharma giant also pushed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Both of those events may suggest that the intermediate-term trend is getting more bullish.
Next, LLY jumped on November 2 following strong quarterly results and bottomed around $567 the next session. It tested that post-earnings low last month and repeatedly closed above it. Is new support in place?
Finally, MACD just turned positive.
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Important Information
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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Very basic understanding of support and resistance areas (2 min)In trading, support and resistance are key concepts that help traders analyze price movements and make informed decisions. Here's a basic explanation:
Support:
Definition: Support is a price level at which a financial instrument (like a stock, currency pair, or commodity) tends to stop falling and may even bounce back up due to buyers.
Analogy: Think of support like a floor that prevents the price from falling further. It's a level where buyers are more inclined to enter the market, seeing the current price as attractive.
Resistance:
Definition: Resistance is a price level at which a financial instrument tends to stop rising and may face difficulty moving higher due to seller pressure.
Analogy: Picture resistance as a ceiling that prevents the price from going higher. It's a level where sellers may be more active, considering the current price as too high.
In summary, support and resistance are like psychological levels in the market where buying and selling interest tends to cluster. Traders use these levels to make decisions about when to enter or exit trades, set stop-loss orders, or identify potential trend reversals. When the price approaches support, traders may look for buying opportunities, while at resistance, they may consider selling or taking profits.
Strategies for Those Who Trade the EuroNavigating the currency markets can be complex, but arming oneself with simple euro trading strategies can provide a clear path through the volatility. This article unpacks straightforward methods designed specifically for trading the euro, offering clarity and practical steps for both novice and seasoned traders looking to refine their approach to this currency.
Understanding the Euro Market
The euro occupies a central role in the global financial system, functioning as the primary currency for the Eurozone – an economic region encompassing numerous European countries. For those aiming to learn forex trading strategies, grasping the dynamics of the euro market is pivotal.
The EUR/USD pair, particularly, is a favourite among traders due to its liquidity and the volume of economic data available for analysis. Trading this pair requires an understanding of the broader economic indicators that influence its volatility, such as interest rate decisions, employment statistics, and political events within Europe. EUR/USD trading strategies often hinge on these indicators, guiding traders to forecast potential price movements.
To gain the best understanding of the strategies below, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll find all of the tools and charts necessary to put these strategies to the test.
Pullback Trading With EMA Confirmation
In the realm of currency trading strategies, the pullback strategy with EMA confirmation stands out as a potent method. This approach involves identifying the market trend through higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), or the opposite for a downtrend, and anticipating a pullback – a temporary reversal of the prevailing trend. Traders typically employ two key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) – the 9-period (blue) and the 21-period (red) – to signal the trend's resumption on an hourly chart.
Entry
Traders may consider entering a position when the 9-period EMA crosses above the 21-period EMA in an uptrend or below in a downtrend. Confirmation of trend continuation through price action is often awaited before execution.
Stop Loss
Many set stop losses beyond a significant swing point, a level that, if breached, would suggest the prevailing trend has been invalidated. Alternatively, some may implement a trailing stop loss, adjusted to follow price movements by sitting below swing points in an uptrend or above in a downtrend.
Take Profit
Profit targets are often established in support or resistance areas.
The rationale behind this strategy lies in its blend of trend-following and momentum. By waiting for a pullback and EMA crossover, traders filter out minor price fluctuations, engaging only when the trend shows signs of continuation. This method aims to capitalise on the natural ebb and flow of market movements while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management.
Breakouts at Support/Resistance With Engulfing Candles
Spotting breakouts at key support or resistance levels combined with the appearance of engulfing candles is often a cornerstone of potentially profitable forex trading strategies. This method revolves around the keen observation of price consolidation within a discernible range, as traders anticipate a potential breakout signalling a reversal – ideal for day trading EUR/USD.
An engulfing candle, which fully encompasses the range of the previous candle, acts as a robust indicator for many traders. This candle pattern suggests a strong shift in market sentiment. When it occurs at a significant level of support or resistance, the implication is that the market may be setting up for a compelling move.
Entry
Traders might consider a position when an engulfing candle forms at a consolidation point, indicating a breakout. The preference is for the trade to be in the direction of the engulfing candle – bullish or bearish.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are frequently placed just beyond the opposite end of the range or the support/resistance level.
Take Profit
Profits are often targeted at the next substantial support or resistance level, where a reversal could be anticipated.
The rationale for this strategy lies in the combination of price action and candlestick analysis. Engulfing candles at support or resistance levels represents a clear narrative of market dynamics: a struggle between buyers and sellers resolved by a sudden, decisive victory for one side. By entering after such a signal, traders are banking on the momentum generated by the breakout, aiming to ride the wave of renewed market conviction.
Parabolic SAR With ADX
The combination of Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) with the Average Directional Index (ADX) can form the basis of a dynamic strategy especially suited to scalping EUR/USD, where quick, precise trades capitalise on small price movements.
With both indicators set to their default parameters, the ADX serves as a filter to gauge the strength of a trend. A reading above 25 is typically indicative of a strong trend, at which point traders might look to the Parabolic SAR for direction. Entry into the market aligns with the direction of the Parabolic SAR, but only when the ADX confirms the trend's vigour.
Entry
Traders may decide to enter trades in the direction suggested by the Parabolic SAR when the ADX crosses above 25, signalling a strong trend. If the ADX is already above 25 and the Parabolic SAR flips, indicating a new trend direction, this could also prompt an entry.
Stop Loss
Stop losses are often positioned above or below the candle that aligns with the first dot of the SAR indicator to protect against sudden changes in trend or at a nearby swing point.
Take Profit
Taking profits is typically considered when the Parabolic SAR indicates a potential change in the trend's direction.
This strategy effectively harnesses the strength of trend momentum, as confirmed by the ADX, while utilising the Parabolic SAR for precise entry and exit points. In the fast-paced scalping environment, where the EUR/USD can exhibit swift movements, this method provides a structured yet responsive approach. It leverages the inherent market rhythm, enabling traders to make quick decisions with the confidence that comes from a dual-indicator system.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, these simple euro trading strategies are just a few ways to trade the forex markets. As you apply these methods, consider the advantages of trading with a seasoned broker. By choosing to open an FXOpen account, you gain access to a platform where precision and strategy come together, setting the stage to enhance your trading experience with the euro. Good luck!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bitcoin kicks off the New Year on a bullish noteAfter a series of bearish breakouts from the pattern resembling a triangle on the hourly chart, Bitcoin kicked off the new year on a bullish note and skyrocketed through its upper bound. By doing so, it established a new high at $45,532. Yet, despite this being a bullish development, a few things continue to ring an alarm bell for us. Last week, we noted that Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC increased in number following the dip in price. However, we have seen the opposite happening since 29th December 2023, with big players seemingly unloading their holdings into Bitcoin’s strength. While this occurrence does not necessarily warrant Bitcoin’s top, it is something to monitor in the foreseeable future. Another thing to watch out for would be an invalidation of a breakout above $44,729 and technicals on the daily chart. In the past two weeks, we have seen RSI retreat from the overbought territory and MACD reverse to the downside. Then, in the past three trading sessions, we have seen them attempting to reverse to the upside. If MACD follows through and RSI breaks above 70 points, it will bolster a bullish case. In such a scenario, we expect Bitcoin to test an important resistance near $48,000. Contrarily, the failure of the mentioned technicals to continue gaining strength will raise our concerns. All in all, our stance remains unchanged, and we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows the hourly chart of Bitcoin and the pattern resembling an ascending triangle. Yellow arrows indicate essential developments.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of Bitcoin and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral (no trend/weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC - In the beginning phase of the Bull Cycle?*Important - Once the majority bashes crypto and calls it a scam calling for lower targets (like how many did in 2018 and missed out), that is when I will be all in! (In this post, Dumb Money were bashing on crypto, and they end up missing out on huge opportunity!. Check out the “Capitulation” phase shown on the comments.
Once dumb money becomes bullish, that would be the time to start taking profits regardless of top!
Whales/elites will not miss any opportunities to make money. They simply buy the fear, hype up the market, take profit and crash it again after taking profit. Instead of beating then, lets ride with them! ;)
Majority got Rekt last year due to listening to the "Bullish" Narratives the media and Social Media Influencers were portraying last year! Stop listening to them and start paying attention to the technicals.
Before reading, get rid of your moonboy mentality and no emotions for dips/corrections! Cannot rule bearish scenarios! Dips are for buying!!
People are so focused on the hourly/daily timeframe that they get emotional on every dip! Take a step back to the weekly/monthly timeframe and see why I'm so bullish now. Stop looking at the short-term dips/rise. Short term is irrelevant for the move that is coming!
You can't be emotional in these markets (stocks, forex, crypto, real estate, etc.). You will lose this game following the news and doing what the majority does. News creates emotions. Everything you need to know is on the charts. News is manipulated by the elites, and they take advantage of our emotions. Stop listening to the news and pay more attention to the charts. Don't follow the majority, because the majority will lose in the end! Also, don't buy the hype when everyone is buying... instead buy the fear when everyone else is selling.
Everything is on the chart! Cryptocurrencies are on the verge of exploding higher. Dips/Corrections are normal and needed in a bull market and are buying opportunities! Huge gains opportunity in the coming months! Never trade blindly. Use multiple indicators to make calculated decisions. Trade with no emotions!
"If you can't beat the fear, do it scared!"
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful!" - Warren Buffet.
"Markets are a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. - Warren Buffet
"Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news." - Bernard Baruch
"The secret to investing/trading is figuring out how rich you want to be and how poor you're willing to become."
"If you want to live like the 5% of the population who are hugely successful, then don't act like the 95%!"
Bitcoin: Wave 4 New Buy Signal.Bitcoin continues to gyrate within the Wave 4 price structure, which implies there is one more leg higher before probability favors a broader correction. Along with that, there is a buy signal in effect now (the break of the 42,600 inside bar high). This signal appears at a relevant level (off 40K support) and IF momentum follows through, has potential to test the 45 to 46K resistance in the coming week.
Now keep in mind, while this appears to be a higher quality setup, it appears in the middle of a holiday week. This fact can reduce the chances of follow through since volume is generally lower. I have been warning about the lower volume holiday environment to help shape expectations effectively (especially for those who receive my Trade Scanner signals).
Volume is more likely to get back to normal levels mid week or into early next week. Does this mean you should avoid signals? That would be the conservative choice. In my opinion if you want to take a signal, just trade smaller than usual size. If the momentum fails to follow through you lose less.
The key thing to consider is this: as long as Wave 4 does NOT overlap Wave 1, the bullish impulse still stands. This serves as a guide for objective and reasonable expectations. For example, momentum may fail and price may test 40K for a third time. If a new setup appears in such a scenario, I would consider this an even higher probability, especially if we are outside of the holiday volume.
The line illustration on my chart (Wave 5?) is what I consider the ideal scenario. This is NOT to be confused with a forecast because there is NO way to know if price will play out this way. These illustrations have not played out numerous times which is the nature of a market that is MOSTLY RANDOM (not always random). The idea behind this is to be prepared IF price confirms, and use this to gauge reward/risk.
If you intend to trade/invest for capital appreciation, your goal for the new year should be to focus your attention on the professional side of this business. This type of information exists in the form of academic papers, legal complaints, and professional associations, NOT Youtube. More time in front of charts WILL NOT matter if you do not understand what is going on behind the charts.
A big thank you again to the community for your encouragement and support over the year. Have a HAPPY, HEALTHY and PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!
The Best and Worst Trades of 2023 💪First of all… happy new year to all traders, globally!
As the year comes to an end, and the new year begins, it’s time to join us in reviewing the top trades that defined our unforgettable year together. Marked by a historic market recovery across various global asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds, 2023 has been a memorable year for all of us.
Among the best performers, the Nasdaq-100 showed an incredible run, climbing more than 50% over the course of the year, while Bitcoin emerged as another noteworthy recovery adding more than $500 billion back to its market cap. While these two stories make many headlines, there’s much more to discuss and look into. After all, that’s what markets are about - research, planning, and data to find the next great trade.
Below, we'll recap these highlights, featuring charts and statistics that explain what happened in 2023 and some emerging trends to watch in 2024.
The best trades of 2023
Long Carvana +1063%
Long Solana +994%
Long Coinbase +448%
Long Avalanche +296%
Long Nvidia +245%
Long Bitcoin +161%
Long US dollars versus Turkish Lira +57%
Long Nasdaq-100 +55%
Short Natural Gas -38%
Short VIX -45%
For those who want to see more data, we’ve created handy lists for you below. Here are the best and worst for some of the most important asset classes:
The best stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. Carvana +1063%
2. Bridgegbio +502%
3. Coinbase +448%
4. Affirm +464%
5. Microstrategy +360%
6. Symbotic +346%
7. Applovin +275%
8. Super Micro Computer +253%
9. NVIDIA +245%
10. DraftKings +222%
Notable: Duolingo +232%
The worst stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. JD -53%
2. Moderna -45%
3. Pfizer -45%
4. Dollar general -45%
5. Estee Lauder -43%
6. Bayer -35%
7. Hertz -30%
8. Nokia -30%
9. Etsy -28%
10. Alibaba -19%
Notable: NIO -18%
The best performers in crypto by market cap over $3 billion:
1. Solana +994%
2. Chainlink +191%
3. Avalanche +296%
4. Bitcoin +161%
5. Cardano +155%
6. Polkadot +103%
7. Ethereum +97%
8. Tron +92%
9. XRP +88%
10. Dogecoin +33%
The biggest changes in forex - all pairs:
1. Swiss Franc / Turkish Lira +72%
2. British Pound / Turkish Lira +67%
3. Euro / Turkish Lira +63%
4. US Dollar / Turkish Lira +57%
5. Euro / Russian Ruble +33%
6. US Dollar / Russian Ruble +29%
7. Mexican Peso / Japanese Yen +25%
8. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen +19%
9. British Pound / Japanese Yen +15%
10. Euro / Japanese Yen +13%
The best performers in commodities:
1. Cocoa +66%
2. Cattle +23%
3. Gold +13%
4. Sugar +4%
The worst performers in commodities:
1. Natgas -38%
2. Corn -29%
3. Wheat -20%
4. Soybean -11%
Indices:
1. Merval +321%
2. Nasdaq +55%
3. NIKKEI +31%
4. S&P 500 +25%
5. IBEX 35 +21%
6. DAX40 +19%
7. Russell 2000 +18%
8. Eurostoxx 50 +17%
9. CAC40 +15%
10. Eurostoxx 600 +11%
Notables:
Hang Seng -17%
VIX -45%
Thanks for being a part of our community and we look forward to celebrating the end of 2023 and the start of 2024. For those of you who read this far down, we have a game for you – can you spot the new tool we’ve added for 2024?
Happy new year, traders! Stay tuned for more great announcements.
TradingView
S&P starting to reprice it self as a comparison to the Russel Russel 2000 has currently reached is standard 2 deviation as a comparison to the pricing of s&p.
What this means is that currently the S&P price has increased so much over the Russel that recently it has deviated from it average +2 standard deviations.
At some point in time price will inevitably return to its average.
This could mean one of two things.
The s&p price declines more rapidly then Russel.
S&P does not increase in price as much as the Russel therefore underperforming the Russel causing the comparison to revert back to its average.
Last time such a miss price allocation happened lead to one of the biggest bear markets in recent history.
In 2000 the slow climb up with the SPX slowly rolling over and a big spike in Small cap quickly sent the SPX/RUT comparison plumet back down from its +2 to its +1 standard deviation within a short time period only to spike back up. (White arrows on the chart)
Something of the sort has happened recently.
Educational: A case for low volatility 🔹 INTRODUCTION
A prevalent saying in the trading world is that you need high volatility to make money in the markets. However, this statement needs to be more accurate. While high volatility is, in fact, necessary, it is very much based on perspective, and there are many cases where an extremely volatile market will be your downfall.
🔹 UNDERSTANDING THE ISSUE
The image above is an example of what a highly volatile market looks like. There are substantial moves and constant reversals. If you trade using traditional methods such as trend following, the majority will struggle to earn, executing in highly volatile markets.
In highly volatile markets, the odds of reaching your profit target drop significantly, and this is because the market could reverse at any time. You will also often hear that scalpers strive in these kinds of markets, which is very much possible, but this is because scalpers often trade at a negative risk ratio and take small gains from the markets. As a result, they can capitalize on those significant moves. See the image below.
However, what is happening within that highly volatile candle? One would be surprised to know that the market is not volatile within that candle on a lower timeframe. The market was very smooth and very consistent in its behavior.
Notice how the trend was very clear on the lower timeframe? Moreover, there are rarely any large spikes. Well, that is also low volatility, which brings us to another misconception between high and low volatility. Many people are under the assumption that low volatility means the market is not moving much. This is not the case. The market could be moving a lot; however, due to each move being consistent, it is considered low volatility. In other words, there is little variability in the movements. Each candle is within the same range of percentage change.
Notice how there are usually no large spikes in the low volatility charts? As long as that does not happen, trending markets can also be considered low volatility.
🔹SOLUTION
So, with all this understanding, how does one use high and low volatility to one's advantage? Well, at this point, it is clear. What anyone wants to do is use high volatility to enter the market is going to trend. So, we want to establish high volatility from a much higher timeframe. By doing this, we ensure that the market will trend significantly on a lower timeframe. What we then do is go to a much lower timeframe and execute within that volatility to catch extremely large moves in the market. Often, this will be within a single highly volatile candle. See the image below.
Thinking in Pine - Time Series Special CasesHello Everyone,
Welcome back to "Thinking in Pine" short video series. In this session, we have discussed few special cases of time series variables and using historical operator within local scope.
If you have not watched our previous video - "Thinking in Pine - Time Series" , request you to do that before continuing this video.
🎲 Summary of our today's discussion
How historical operator works for variables defined inside an conditional block
How historical operator works for variables defined in a loop.
🎯 Example Program Used
// Time series for variables within a condition
varip showLogInLoop = true
if(bar_index%3 == 0)
specialBarIndex = bar_index
if(bar_index > last_bar_index-3 and showLogInLoop)
log.info('Current and Previous special bar index are : {0} and {1}', specialBarIndex, specialBarIndex )
showLogInLoop := false
// Time series of variables within a loop
arrayOfX = array.new()
arrayOfLastX = array.new()
for i = 1 to 5
x = i*10
arrayOfX.push(x)
arrayOfLastX.push(x )
if(barstate.islastconfirmedhistory)
log.info('Array of X : {0}', arrayOfX)
log.info('Array of last X : {0}', arrayOfLastX)
🎲 References:
Pine Script® User Manual - Execution Model
Pine Script® User Manual - Time Series
Pine Script® User Manual - History Referencing Operator
Pine Script® Reference Manual - History Referencing Operator
Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously.
Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x.
Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets.
BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high.
Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year.
COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN
Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry.
That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities.
Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase.
COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES
Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought.
FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally.
While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs.
COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs
While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC.
The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval.
In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources.
Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer).
While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience.
The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider:
Source: Coindesk
Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED
A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking.
Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode.
While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback.
Source: Glassnode
THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE
Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry.
Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase.
If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks.
Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs.
The hypothetical trade set up would involve:
• Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780)
• Target: 0.480%
• Stop Loss: 0.365%
• Profit at Target: USD 670
• Loss at Stop: USD 467
• Reward/Risk: 1.43x
Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bitcoin Consolidating In A Bull Pennant?Bitcoin appears to be consolidating in a bull pennant. I have not checked the chart in over a week as I have been on vacation, and little has changed - including the price.
A pennant has a descending resistance and ascending support. Remember, this can easily turn into a flag, a descending parallel channel. For that to happens, support breaks... people get bearish, only to see another form of bullish consolidation. So be careful.
Price is clearly interested in the $42,000 key area here, no surprises.
Solana Is the Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency by Capitalisation.Solana Is the Fourth Largest Cryptocurrency by Capitalisation. But for How Long?
2023 turned out to be a good year for cryptocurrencies, especially given the depressing mood that reigned at the end of 2022.
From the beginning of 2023:
→ Bitcoin increased in price by more than 150% – including due to rumours related to the approval of applications for a Bitcoin ETF;
→ Ethereum rose by approximately 85%.
But what has been particularly impressive is the progress made by the Solana project. This is a decentralised blockchain platform, which is characterised by high speed and scalability — they are achieved through the use of a unique architecture based on the Proof-of-History (PoH) protocol. In 2023, Solana became the first blockchain platform to reach 50,000 transactions per second. And a number of large investment funds, such as Grayscale and CoinShares, have added SOL to their portfolios.
SOL is a token that is used to pay for transactions and services on the Solana platform. It can also be used for staking to help support the network. The SOL/USD rate in 2023 has increased by more than 1000%!
At the same time, SOL now ranks 4th in terms of capitalisation of cryptocurrencies — after BTC, ETH, and the USDT stablecoin. December was the month when the price of the SOL token exceeded the psychological level of USD 100 for the first time since April 2022 (the historical high reached in the fall of 2021 exceeds the USD 250 level for SOL).
But will the price be able to stay above USD 100?
The 4-hour chart on the FXOpen TickTrader platform shows that:
→ the price broke through the USD 100 level, but did not test it;
→ the price broke through the level of USD 110, which confirmed its role as support;
→ the price reached the upper limit of the ascending channel, which began in early November.
At the same time, the chart shows bearish signs:
→ the price sharply reversed from the upper border of the channel on the last closed candle;
→ divergences formed on the RSI indicator.
In such a situation, you should be prepared for a scenario in which the SOL/USD price may fall — for example, to test the USD 100 level. In this case, the market can be supported by the median line of the channel.
At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical.
Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle.
I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek"
Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original.
Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us.
FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED.
Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market
Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market
Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets.
Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall.
The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak.
For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities.
This trend is about to shift rapidly.
And the speed of such a shift is extreme.
While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y.
Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating.
In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown.
Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market.
History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds.
Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash.
Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Bitcoin Futures: A Quantitative Approach to Analyzing BTCIntroduction to Bitcoin Futures
Bitcoin, the pioneering digital asset, has carved a niche in the financial markets with its futures contracts. Bitcoin Futures provide traders and investors a regulated avenue to speculate on the price of Bitcoin without holding the actual cryptocurrency. This article delves into a quantitative analysis to analyze the next week's potential value of Bitcoin Futures, employing a sophisticated Neural Network model.
Current Market Landscape
The Bitcoin market is known for its rapid price movements. Recently, regulatory news, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment have contributed to market fluctuations. Understanding these trends is crucial for traders looking to navigate this dynamic landscape.
Quantitative Analysis of BTC Futures' Potential Price Movements
Neural Networks & Machine Learning: At the heart of our quantitative approach is a Neural Network model. This model has been trained on historical weekly data of Bitcoin Futures, including key price points and other relevant market indicators.
Data Preprocessing: To ensure accuracy, the data underwent rigorous preprocessing, including normalization to make it suitable for the Neural Network. This step is essential in highlighting the true patterns and trends in the data without noise or scale issues distorting the model's view.
Model Training: Our model was trained over 500 iterations, adjusting its internal parameters to minimize prediction error. This training process involved feeding the model historical data and letting it learn from the actual price movements.
Evaluation and Prediction: After training, the model's performance was evaluated. The actual prices were compared against the model's predictions to assess robustness. This evaluation is crucial in understanding the model's reliability.
Impact of External Factors
Bitcoin Futures are affected by a range of external factors, including regulatory changes, market sentiment, and technological developments. These factors can cause sudden and unpredictable market movements, making the analysis of future potential prices challenging. Our model takes into account the historical impact of these factors, but it's important to remember that unforeseen future events can lead to deviations from predicted values.
Forward-Looking Market Views
Based on our Neural Network's learning and the recent market data, the model predicts that the value of Bitcoin Futures for the next week will be around "$44,026.60". This prediction is visualized in our graph comparing actual prices against predicted values over time, providing a clear view of the model's accuracy.
Given the fact that the current value of BTC is slightly under 43,000, a trader could plan a long trade targeting 44,026.60 as their exit price. Entries could be taken in many ways such as utilizing key technical supports or waiting for breakouts above key resistance price levels. In all cases, a professional approach to taking risk in the marketplace always require managing such risk using stop-loss orders and making sure the trade size has been pre-calculated. There are many more options on how to have a contingency plan in place in case BTC moved in the opposite direction our AI expected it to. More on this in future articles.
The model's learning curve, depicted in the accuracy graph, shows how the prediction accuracy improved over training iterations, reflecting the model's increasing proficiency at understanding the market.
Conclusion
Our quantitative analysis, utilizing a sophisticated Neural Network model, provides a prediction for the next week's value of Bitcoin Futures. While this prediction is grounded in historical data and advanced algorithms, it's important for traders to consider the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the Bitcoin market. The predictive model is a powerful tool, but it should be used as part of a broader strategy that considers market news, economic reports, and other indicators.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes, forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
