Nat Gas Report Day Update 2/6/25Showing the verification of the fundamentals with technical support. Where my thoughts are on the NG market for the rest of the week.
Keep it Burning!
Community ideas
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders.
One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on?
📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading
Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out.
Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout.
💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events
Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action.
To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack.
If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell.
👉👈 Who’s Right?
Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality.
The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news.
💡 Why It Matters
Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs.
Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller.
💚 Final Thoughts
Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you.
So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
Boeing May Be Attempting a TurnaroundBoeing has struggled for years, but now there may be signs of a turnaround in the aerospace giant.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between December 2023 and early December 2024. The stock has now pushed above that falling trendline, which may suggest its direction is turning.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just formed a “Golden Cross” above the 200-day SMA. That may also indicate a change of direction.
Third is the rally between November 22 and late December. BA retraced half the move before bouncing, which may confirm an upward trajectory.
Fourth is the weekly close of $179.99 from mid-August. The shares have been stuck at that level since December. That may make traders view a close above it as a potential breakout signal.
Recent price action has gotten more interesting as well. Last week saw an outside candle around earnings, and now an inside week is forming.
While these signals are inconclusive, they’re all potentially consistent with a reversal. Could more news of a business revival bring long-term money off the sidelines?
Finally, BA is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average volume of 127,000 contracts per day ranks in the top 5 percent of the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That may help traders take position if the shares start moving.
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AMD PRICE ACTION FEB 5TH 2025This is the price action of AMD at its very best & exclusively for viewers on trading view.
I have discussed in depth price action of AMD and if you have any doubts feel free to leave a message or your comments below.
Health Care and Water Utilities Are Turning UpIn water utilities we are seeing a possible bottom and that is indicative of the Anti pattern which is a reversal pattern. Catching this pullback can keep us in this trade for a longer period of time. The healthcare industry is showing a lot of strength on many different charts. NASDAQ:INGN is just one of many but, it is my favorite setup today.
WHY 99.9% OF BEGINNER TRADERS QUIT! MY NEXT SETUP Most beginner traders quit because they make the same deadly mistakes:
❌ They clutter their charts with too many indicators
❌ They have no real strategy or system
❌ They trade based on emotion instead of logic
❌ They never backtest their approach
❌ They have no idea how to size their positions correctly
❌ They completely ignore risk management
If that sounds familiar, you're not alone. But in this video, we break down why these mistakes destroy accounts—and how to fix them.
🎯 Plus, we analyze my next trade setup in real time!
💥 Congrats if you took the short from supply! That setup played out beautifully. Now, let’s dive into the next opportunity.
🔔 Don’t forget to like and FOLLOW, for more insights!
February trading rule The idea is to grow a small 1200 account strictly trading my setup and see where we get to at the end of February.
This is a transparent journal and I will be sharing my thoughts as i trade.
Tariffs and Their Influence on GoldWe observed how gold has pivoted upward so precisely each time tariffs were applied since the start of the trade war in 2018.
Before the trade war, gold remained stagnant within this range. However, with the onset of the trade war, everything changed for gold.
We will conduct a case study since 2018, analyzing how gold has reacted to each significant tariff imposed.
With the latest proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, what could be the potential trend for gold, and how should it be managed above the current level?
Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: GC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00
1Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GBPUSD Not Clear AT the MomentFrom a daily perspective Swing structure remains bullish and we still maintain the bias that price made a deeper pullback retesting the demand zone created on Nov 1, 2023.
Immediately we tapped into that demand zone, price shot up.
However, The daily internal structure remains bearish and until price breaks the internal protected high, we continue looking for selling opportunities.
- At this point, i will stay clear off the market, until i get a clear directional bias.
-Also, it is important to note that this is the 2nd time our daily supply zone (created on Jan 7, 2025) is getting retested. Until we get a nice strong clearance away from that supply , we stay clear from this market.
4HRS
Swing structure is bearish.
Internal Structure = Bullish
We gapped to the downside on Monday and immediately reversed breaking internal structure to the upside. This caused an internal trend change where the internal trend changed from bearish to bullish. This aligns perfectly with daily swing structure and a sign that overall the trend may be changing from bearish to bullish.
After a BoS, we expect a pullback but from where?
Gold Sector Outlook 2025: Is the Golden Era Just Beginning? Gold Sector Outlook 2025: Is the Golden Era Just Beginning? ✨🏆
Introduction
The gold sector is shining brighter than ever in 2025. With prices climbing rapidly amidst global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metal is once again a top choice for investors. But what’s driving this bullish momentum, and what should you watch out for? Let’s dig in. 🕵️♂️💰
Trending Sector Performance
🔍 Recent Sector Highlights
Gold Price Surge: Since October 2023, gold prices have surged 53%, recently hitting $2,801 per ounce. Goldman Sachs predicts a $3,000 target by year-end, while J.P. Morgan is a bit more conservative at $2,600—with room to overshoot. 🚀
Mining Output: Industry forecasts show a potential 17% decline in new gold mining supply over the next five years, signaling tighter future supply. This supply squeeze could fuel higher prices. 📉⛏️
Central Bank Demand: Central banks bought 290 tonnes of gold in early 2024, a sign that institutional demand remains strong. Ongoing debt concerns and geopolitical uncertainty are only amplifying gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. 🏦🌎
These data points underscore why gold's momentum might just be heating up.
Sector Valuation 📊
The valuation of key gold mining companies suggests opportunities for savvy investors. Here’s a quick snapshot of forward P/E ratios:
Barrick Gold Corp ( TSX:ABX ): 11.79
Barrick Gold (GOLD): 10.09
Gold Fields ( NYSE:GFI ): 8.01
AngloGold Ashanti ( NYSE:AU ): 7.10
Kinross Gold ( NYSE:KGC ): 12.18
With these valuations below broader market averages, the sector shows signs of potential undervaluation. For long-term investors, this could be a golden opportunity. 💡📈
Risk Assessment ⚠️
Like any investment, gold comes with risks:
Price Volatility: While forecasts remain bullish, economic stability or a stronger U.S. dollar could hurt prices.
Supply Constraints: With fewer new mining projects, gold miners may face production challenges if demand accelerates.
Strategic Sector Analysis 🛠️
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
✅ Strong central bank demand.
✅ Gold’s status as a time-tested safe-haven.
✅ Potential supply constraints pushing prices higher.
Weaknesses:
❌ High operational costs for mining companies.
Opportunities:
💡 Geopolitical instability driving sustained demand.
💡 Mining innovations creating potential for new exploration.
Threats:
🚨 Economic recovery reducing gold’s appeal.
🚨 Higher interest rates diminishing gold’s relative attractiveness.
Key Trends Influencing Gold Prices 📈
Geopolitical Tensions: Uncertainty continues to steer capital towards safe-haven assets like gold.
Monetary Policy: Rate cuts or looser monetary policy could provide further tailwinds for gold prices.
These factors are expected to keep gold at the forefront of investment strategies throughout 2025.
Accuracy and Data Validity ✅
All insights in this article are based on recent data from financial reports, social media sources, and institutional projections, ensuring relevance for early 2025.
Conclusion 🏁
Gold remains a promising investment for 2025. With central bank demand, potential supply constraints, and persistent geopolitical risks, prices may continue their upward march. However, it’s crucial to stay alert to potential economic shifts that could affect the sector’s performance.
What's your 2025 gold price prediction?
🔺 Above $3,000
➡️ Between $2,600 and $3,000
🔻 Below $2,600
discuss in the comments! We’d love to hear your thoughts.
WHAT'S FLOWING: TRUMP | METALS | INDEX | BTC
Key Observations from the Charts
1. USD/MXN (US Dollar to Mexican Peso) – Bullish
• The pair is trending upwards, with price breaking above recent resistance.
• Green Heikin Ashi candles confirm bullish momentum.
2. USD/CNH (US Dollar to Chinese Yuan) – Bullish
• Price is pushing higher, breaking past previous resistance.
• The red-to-green shift in Heikin Ashi candles signals continued strength in USD.
3. USD/CAD (US Dollar to Canadian Dollar) – Bullish
• Strong rally with momentum building.
• The price is well above the moving average zone (green/red shaded area).
4. AUD/JPY & AUD/USD (vs. USD/JPY) – Bearish
• Weakness in AUD is visible as it trends downward.
• The Heikin Ashi candles are mostly red, indicating a downtrend.
5. XAG/EUR (Silver to Euro) – Bullish
• Price is breaking higher, suggesting demand for silver.
• Potential move toward the next resistance.
6. XAU/USD vs. XAG/USD (Gold & Silver to USD) – Bullish
• Both gold and silver are pushing higher.
• Potential rotation into precious metals as a hedge against market uncertainty.
7. GER40 (DAX Index, Germany) – Bullish
• The index is maintaining an uptrend.
• Strong green Heikin Ashi candles show continuation.
8. US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) – Bearish
• Continues to push higher with momentum.
• Uptrend remains intact.
9. SPX500 (S&P 500 Index) – Slightly Bearish
• Market remains near highs, with some consolidation.
• Green Heikin Ashi candles still dominate, but some resistance forming.
What’s Flowing Today?
• Strong USD Trends: USD is pushing higher against MXN, CNH, and CAD, reflecting dollar strength.
• Precious Metals Rising: Gold and Silver are both trending up, likely as a hedge against market risks.
• Equities Holding Strong: US & European indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and DAX) are maintaining bullish trends.
• AUD Weakness: AUD/JPY and AUD/USD are selling off, signaling risk aversion in currency markets.
Market Themes to Watch
• Risk-on vs. Risk-off Sentiment: Precious metals moving higher suggests some defensive positioning, but stocks remain strong.
• US Dollar Strength: USD showing dominance across multiple pairs.
• Commodities & Inflation Hedge: Metals rallying could indicate inflation expectations creeping back into the market.
Tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs... What's next for the Dow?It seems like we are stepping into Tariff Wars 2.0, with the announcement of the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. But is the outlook really that bad? Let's take a look at the MARKETSCOM:US30 scenario.
TVC:DJI
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Time to add some Cybersecurity stocks to your Portfolio?In the video I take a look at FTNT, CRWD and FFIV and I bring the case for some cybersecurity investing.
From almost Blowing Funded account to being back in ProfitsThis was a perfect illustration of how our emotions can affect us and our trading decisions.
However through my 5 years of trading, I've been working on mastering my emotions as best as I can and as you guys can see-- I still had several times where I showed plenty of emotions. This leads me to come to the conclusion I still have a long way to go with mastering my emotions but progress is being made, and that is enough for me. If you guys liked this idea and post please give it a like!
Forex and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
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Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
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Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
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The Quantum Capitalist $MU & $NEE Analysis 1/21/2025Simple strategy using top-down analysis to find entries, profit targets, and options contracts on Micron and Nextera Energy
XLM - Taking Over EUROPEAN BANKS MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on xlm here.
xlm is looking beautiful , very strong chart for more upside
Very similar to XRP which mooned and will go higher
Do not miss out on xlm as this is a great opportunity
Watch video for more details
EURCHF gaining the MOMENTUMHere we see prices were unable to form a lows. We can see bullish engulfing candle , and a proper break of structure that forms an order block which is now activated. Although it is an aggressive entry but can be a great opportunity if aligns with the momentum of pre London opening.
Reg Optimism, Implicit Fed Support, & Insti Demand to Boost BTCBitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff.
Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited near-term momentum.
MACRO FACTORS AT PLAY
BTC remains below key resistance levels, limiting upward momentum. However, it has outperformed equities in the current macroeconomic environment. While equities faced an AI-driven selloff last week, BTC showed resilience, rebounding quickly from its Jan 24 lows. Additionally, BTC has benefited from market uncertainty, like gold, which is also trading near an all-time high.
The recent FOMC meeting initially pressured BTC, as the Fed held rates steady and expressed inflation concerns. However, BTC rebounded 2.4% after Fed Chair Powell clarified that changes in inflation-related language were not intended as a strong signal.
Source: CME FedWatch
The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot suggests only two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, align with this outlook. While a higher-rate environment limits tailwinds for BTC, bullish sentiment continues, driven by regulatory anticipation and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption.
BREAKING DOWN TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDER
On Jan 23, President Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." The order emphasizes fostering digital asset growth while maintaining U.S. financial sovereignty, particularly through USD-backed stablecoins. It also protects citizens’ rights to use blockchain networks without government interference.
Key provisions include:
1. Creation of a National Economic Council working group on digital assets, chaired by David Sacks.
2. Review of existing regulations within 30–60 days, followed by a report to the President in 180 days.
3. Consideration of a national digital asset reserve while explicitly prohibiting government action on (Central Bank Digital Currency) CBDCs.
U.S. BITCOIN RESERVE: REALITY CHECK
While the executive order affirms the administration’s pro-crypto stance, it stops short of immediately establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the reserve would take shape in at least six months, delaying any near-term impact.
The working group may begin by utilizing seized cryptocurrency rather than purchasing new BTC. The U.S. government currently holds 198,000 BTC (~USD 20B, as of Feb 1) and USD 400M in other crypto assets.
For context, U.S. strategic reserves include: (a) Gold: 8,133 tonnes (~USD 737B as of 31/Jan), (b) Crude oil: 395M barrels (~USD 28B, as of 24/Jan), and (c) Foreign currency reserves: ~USD 239B (Q3 2024).
The U.S. gold reserve accounts for 3.8% of the total above-ground gold stock, while its Bitcoin holdings currently represent just 1% of the total supply. To match the gold reserve proportion, U.S. Bitcoin holdings would need to increase by 554,000 BTC, valued at approximately USD 55 billion at current prices. Over time, a Bitcoin reserve could realistically expand by USD 50 billion to USD 70 billion.
Meanwhile, several U.S. states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve proposals. 15 states are considering BTC-related fiscal policies, with:
• Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania proposing 10% public fund allocations
• Texas suggesting a donation/tax model
• Arizona and Utah advancing legislation beyond committee stages
REGULATORY CERTAINTY FOR BANKS
Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed that banks can engage with crypto provided they manage associated risks. While this imposes stricter compliance requirements, it provides much-needed clarity following the post-FTX banking shakeout that shuttered major crypto-focussed banks.
Fund Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong
BTC ETFs saw record one-day inflows of over USD 1B on Trump’s inauguration eve. Since then, daily inflows have averaged USD 257M, with only one outflow day (-USD 457M on Jan 27).
Cumulative BTC ETF inflows since Jan 20 now total USD 2.3B, pushing assets under management (AUM) to nearly USD 118B.
Source: Arkham Intelligence
Notably, ETF investors remain highly profitable at current prices. Arkham Intelligence data shows IBIT ETF holders sitting on a 45% gain, which may limit immediate selling but could lead to some profit-taking.
MicroStrategy remains a major BTC buyer. The company recently completed a USD 584M perpetual convertible offering to acquire more BTC, potentially fuelling short-term upside.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADE SETUP
BTC’s recent pullbacks have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6% Fibonacci levels, like the 2018 bull cycle according to Glassnode .
Source: Glassnode
The drawdown since reaching ATH on 20/Jan represents a ~13% move which suggests the drawdown is larger than usual ones during this cycle.
Historically, this phase of the bull run experiences FOMO-driven price acceleration, though long-term holders’ profit-taking presents a headwind.
BTC fell below the 50-day MA over the weekend, this level has served as support recently. The 92k level is also significant as it has provided support several times during recent retracements. However, in case the selloff deepens, the next significant support may be as far as the 100-day MA at 85k.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC has outperformed equities amid macro uncertainty and is increasingly correlated with gold (30-day correlation: 0.67). Recent tariff announcement in the US has driven a sharp selloff.
Despite a less-than-ideal FOMC outcome, BTC retains several bullish drivers, supported by Regulatory optimism following Trump’s executive order, Fed Chair Powell’s statements on crypto banking, and Institutional & sovereign demand.
The recent selloff offers a tactical opportunity to build long positions during volatile drawdowns.
Investors can opt for the following hypothetical trade setup consisting of long position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring on 28/Feb (MBTG2025). Each contract of MBT provides exposure to 0.1 BTC and requires margin of USD 2,451 as of 31/Jan.
• Entry: 94,000
• Target: 100,585
• Stop Loss: 90,000
• Profit at Target: USD 659 ((100,585-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Loss at Stop: USD 400 ((90,000-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Reward-to-risk Ratio: 1.65x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition starting today. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. Click here to learn more.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Leap Ahead with a Regression Breakout on Crude OilThe Leap Trading Competition: Your Chance to Shine
TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Crude Oil (CL) and Micro Crude Oil (MCL), giving traders access to one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article breaks down a structured trade idea using linear regression breakouts, Fibonacci retracements, and UnFilled Orders (UFOs) to identify a long setup in Crude Oil Futures. Hopefully, this structured approach aligns with the competition’s requirements and gives traders a strong trade plan to consider. Best of luck to all participants.
Spotting the Opportunity: A Regression Breakout in CL Futures
Trend reversals often present strong trading opportunities. One way to detect these shifts is by analyzing linear regression channels—a statistical tool that identifies the general price trend over a set period.
In this case, a 4-hour CL chart shows that price has violated the upper boundary of a downward-sloping regression channel, suggesting the potential start of an uptrend. When such a breakout aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and existing UnFilled Orders (UFOs), traders may gain a potential extra edge in executing a structured trade plan.
The Trade Setup: Combining Fibonacci and a Regression Channel
This trade plan incorporates multiple factors to define an entry, stop loss, and target:
o Entry Zone:
An entry or pullback to the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement area, between 74.60 and 73.14, provides a reasonable long entry.
o Stop Loss:
Placed below 73.14 to ensure a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
o Profit-Taking Strategy:
First target at 76.05 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Second target at 77.86 (23.6% Fibonacci level)
Final target at 78.71, aligning with a key UFO resistance level
This approach locks in profits along the way while allowing traders to capitalize on an extended move toward the final resistance zone.
Contract Specifications and Margin Considerations
Understanding contract specifications and margin requirements is essential when trading futures. Below are the key details for CL and MCL:
o Crude Oil Futures (CL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: CL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements vary based on market conditions and broker requirements. Currently set around $5,800.
o Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL) Contract Details
Full contract specs: MCL Contract Specifications – CME Group
Tick size: 0.01 per barrel ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements for more flexible risk control. Currently set around $580.
Choosing between CL and MCL depends on risk tolerance and account size. MCL provides more flexibility for smaller accounts, while CL offers higher liquidity and contract value.
Execution and Market Conditions
To maximize trade efficiency, conservative traders could wait for a proper price action into the entry zone and confirm the setup using momentum indicators and/or volume trends.
Key Considerations Before Entering
Ensure price reaches the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone before executing the trade
Look for confirmation signals such as increased volume, candlestick formations, or additional support zones
Be patient—forcing a trade without confirmation increases risk exposure
Final Thoughts
This Crude Oil Futures trade setup integrates multiple confluences—a regression breakout, Fibonacci retracements, and UFO resistance—to create a structured trade plan with defined risk management.
For traders participating in The Leap Trading Competition, this approach emphasizes disciplined execution, dynamic risk management, and a structured scaling-out strategy, all essential components for long-term success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference.
President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones.
The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks.
China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.”
Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time.
These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans.
What are tariffs and who pays them?
At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market.
Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are.
Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government.
What could happen when these tariffs get cracking?
The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?)
Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates.
What could happen to the stock market?
One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.)
An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow.
Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation.
Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%.
And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs.
There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl.
The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen.
Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment.
Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected.
What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
Investing in US Construction & Engineering: PWR vs FIX vs PRIM◉ Abstract
The U.S. construction and engineering sector is experiencing a significant boom, driven by infrastructure investments, rapid urbanization, and the rise of renewable energy projects. Leading companies such as Quanta Services NYSE:PWR , Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX , and Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM are capitalizing on these trends, each demonstrating strong performance. Among them, PRIM stands out with exceptional financial health and attractive valuation metrics, positioning it as a compelling choice for investors. PWR and FIX are also performing well, benefiting from the sector's growth momentum.
With substantial government spending and ongoing urbanization fueling demand, the sector presents promising opportunities for long-term investors. However, thorough research, clear investment goals, and effective risk management remain crucial to navigating this dynamic landscape successfully.
◉ Introduction
The U.S. construction and engineering sector is a vital component of the nation's economy, driving infrastructure development, urbanization, and economic growth. It encompasses various activities, including residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure construction, as well as engineering services for design, planning, and project management. Recent trends shaping the sector include urbanization, sustainability, technological advancements, and government investments in infrastructure.
◉ Key Drivers of Growth
1. Infrastructure Investments: $1.2 trillion allocated for roads, bridges, railways, and clean energy infrastructure.
2. Renewable Energy: Funding boost for solar and wind farms driving demand for construction services.
3. Urbanization: Rapid urbanization fueling demand for residential and commercial construction.
4. Sustainability: Emphasis on green building, energy efficiency, and renewable energy projects.
5. Technological Advancements: Adoption of BIM, drones, and automation improving efficiency and reducing costs.
6. Resilience and Disaster Recovery: Demand for resilient infrastructure and disaster recovery projects due to natural disasters.
◉ Key Players in the Sector
1. Fluor Corporation NYSE:FLR : A global leader in engineering and construction, focusing on energy, chemicals, and infrastructure projects.
2. AECOM NYSE:ACM : A multinational firm providing design, consulting, and construction services for infrastructure, transportation, and environmental projects.
3. Quanta Services NYSE:PWR : A leading provider of specialized infrastructure services for the electric power, oil, and gas industries, including renewable energy projects.
4. Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX : A major player in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services for commercial and industrial buildings.
5. Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM : Provides construction services for energy, utilities, and infrastructure projects, with a growing focus on renewable energy.
This report provides a comparative analysis of Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, and Primoris Services Corporation, examining their competitive dynamics in the U.S. construction and engineering sector.
◉ Technical Standings
➖ The charts for PWR, FIX, and PRIM exhibit similar trends, with stock prices currently experiencing a strong uptrend.
➖ Based on this momentum, it is expected that this trend will persist, driving prices even higher in the near future.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● PWR
➖ Q3 FY24 sales: $6.493 billion, up 16% sequentially and 15.5% YoY.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $619 million, a significant increase from $463 million in Q2 and $542 million in Q3 FY23.
● FIX
➖ Q3 sales: $1.812 billion, flat sequentially but up 30% YoY.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $238 million, up from $223 million in Q2 and $155 million in Q3 FY23.
● PRIM
➖ Q3 sales: $1.649 billion, an 8% YoY increase and the highest quaterly sales ever.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $123 million, up from $112 million in Q2.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ PWR stands at a P/E ratio of 54.2x.
➖ FIX is at a P/E ratio of 32.3x.
➖ PRIM shows a P/E ratio of 24.3x.
◾ These numbers indicate that PRIM is considerably undervalued when compared to its competitors.
● P/B Ratio
➖ PWR's P/B ratio stands at 6.2x.
➖ FIX's P/B ratio is 9.5x.
➖ On the other hand, PRIM's P/B ratio is significantly lower at 3x.
● PEG Ratio
➖ PWR boasts a PEG ratio of 3.54.
➖ FIX’S PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66.
➖ PRIM, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 0.90.
◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that FIX is currently undervalued relative to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
All three companies have reported significant improvements in operating cash flow for Q3 FY24:
➖ PWR saw an 82% increase to $740 million (LTM), up from $391 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
➖ FIX reported a 41% rise to $302 million (LTM), compared to $214 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
➖ PRIM achieved a 133% increase to $416 million (LTM), up from $178 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
◉ Debt Analysis
➖ PWR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.6.
➖ FIX shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19.
➖ In contrast, PRIM has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73.
◾ FIX boasts the lowest debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a stronger balance sheet and reduced reliance on debt financing compared to its peers.
◉ Top Shareholders
● PWR
➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.4%
➖ BlackRock - 7.62%
● FIX
➖ The Vanguard Group - 10.5%
➖ BlackRock - 14%
● PRIM
➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.5%
➖ BlackRock - 10.4%
◉ Conclusion
After a comprehensive analysis of the major players in the U.S. Construction & Engineering sector, including an in-depth review of technical capabilities and financial performance, Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM emerges as a standout candidate. The company’s robust financial health, supported by strong cash reserves, positions it well to navigate challenges such as debt concerns.
The sector as a whole is poised for significant growth, driven by massive government spending on infrastructure and the ongoing trend of rapid urbanization. For investors, this presents a compelling opportunity. However, it is essential to conduct thorough research, establish clear investment objectives, and maintain a long-term perspective to capitalize on this growth while effectively managing risks.
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Let me know in the comments below!
HelenP. I Gold will continue to move up inside upward channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, the price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near this level and then rebounded up to support 1. Then Gold turned around and dropped to support 2, and when the price reached this level, it broke it and declined a little below. After this movement, the price in quickly rose back to support 2 and then some time traded in the support zone. Later price made a correction movement again and then started to grow inside an upward channel, where it soon broke support 2. In the channel, the price fell to the trend line, which is the support line of the channel also, and then continued to move up next. Some time later Gold rose to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone and broke this level. Soon, the price rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction to trend line, but a not long time ago it rebounded and continued to rise. For this reason, I expect that XAUUSD will rise to 2800 points inside an upward channel. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
