Soft Landing?A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming.
The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years.
A yield curve inversion reduces bank lending for various reasons, one of which is the removal of the incentive for banks to borrow at lower short-term rates and lend at higher long-term rates. Since bank credit is how most money comes into creation, a yield curve inversion is, therefore, a sign that monetary conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, manipulating the interest rate is how the central bank controls the money supply and induces a recession.
The impact of rate hikes always occurs on a lagging basis. The lag can last anywhere from several quarters to several years. As the infographic below shows, an economic recession will likely begin in the U.S. between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024.
The warning signs of the coming liquidity crisis are everywhere.
In a prior post (shown below), @SquishTrade and I pointed out that a major disparity between the volatility of bond prices and the volatility of equity prices is occurring. This extreme disparity could be a warning that much greater volatility for equity markets has yet to come.
Even for stocks that have experienced a strong rally in 2023, the basis of their surge is largely unsupported by dollar liquidity levels. In the chart below, the price of NASDAQ:NVDA is compared against the dollar liquidity index.
This is further confirmed by the below chart, which shows how extreme the price of NASDAQ:NVDA as a ratio to the price of a risk-free 10-year Treasury bond has become. Never before have investors been willing to pay so high of a risk premium to hold Nvidia's stock.
While anything is possible, the charts suggest that there isn't enough money in the economy to support the payment of debt at current yields. The below chart shows the price of long-term government Treasurys (adjusted for interest payments) as a ratio to the M2 money supply.
There is simply not enough money in the M2 money stock for market participants to be able to pay all newly issued debt at the current high rates. When the liquidity issues begin to mount, the Fed will quickly pivot back to new money creation, as it did in March 2023 when it abruptly created the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is the latest of the many tools that the Fed uses to create new money.
However, when the economy begins to slow, this time around central banks will get trapped because of commodity price inflation. Although commodity prices are generally disinflating at the present time, this slow disinflation is merely forming a bull flag on the higher timeframes.
With unemployment also bull flagging on the higher timeframes, when commodity prices and unemployment concurrently break out, the result will definitionally be stagflation.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
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Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements
Since 2016, the interest rate in Japan has been in the negative zone and has remained unchanged — for more than 7 years it has been -0.10%. This makes Japan fundamentally different from other countries. But over the weekend the Yomiuri newspaper published an interview with Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda. He said the central bank could end the era of negative interest rates once it becomes clear that the 2% inflation target has been achieved.
Suppose these words may not be a declaration of intentions that will become reality, but just a verbal intervention aimed at supporting the yen. One way or another, the USD/JPY chart clearly shows signs of a change in sentiment:
→ last week, the bulls put pressure on the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), increasing the likelihood of reaching the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar;
→ last week’s close was near the high, but the current week began with a bearish gap, after which the yen weakened by 0.8% within just a few hours;
→ level 146.66, which served as support last week, now appears to be offering resistance. A similar action can be expected from the level of 147 yen per US dollar.
In the near future, the price may realize a scenario where it reaches important support from the median line of the ascending channel with a subsequent rebound from it. If this rebound does form, but it is no more than 50% of the unfolding decline, then we will have more arguments that bears are taking more control in the USD/JPY market amid government announcements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
A Traders’ Playbook: The agile trader wins this week Trading Overview
We head into the new trading week with the USD index (DXY) closing higher for the 8th straight week, a fate we haven’t seen in some 18 years – it's little surprise that retail traders are countering that move, accruing a solid net short position. EURUSD has closed lower by the same duration, and that makes a fitting backdrop for the two headline catalysts this week: the September ECB meeting, and the US CPI print.
Further afield, the CLP (Chilean Peso), PLN (Polish Zloty) and MXN were the weakest currencies in FX markets last week (all offered by Pepperstone). USDMXN has seen increased attention from traders, and we’ve seen exhaustion in the buying in USDMXN after 6 straight days higher. I am a buyer of weakness.
AUDUSD fell 1.2% last week and remains a liquid proxy of China, but again, after a strong move to below 0.6400 we see that the sellers are feeling fatigued – consolidation can be a good thing, even for those whose strategies work their edge in more linear moves. China’s CPI/PPI, released on Saturday (coming in at 0.1% and -3% respectively), shouldn’t worry markets to any great degree.
US and Brent Crude gets close attention, with OPEC+ determined to tighten supply crude. After the run price is factoring in a lot of positive factors, however, a daily close above $88 (in SpotCrude) would greatly accelerate the prospect of $100 coming into play, with BrentCrude likely to get there first. I’m not sure risk assets will appreciate further upside in energy prices, and I consider a scenario where we see further gains in crude, married with an above consensus US core CPI print. One suspects if that scenario we’re to play out we could see increased angst, and higher vol.
While the VIX index has moved below 14% and S&P500 20-day realised vol is turning lower again, it is still a big week for equity – after a small pullback, we question if the US500 is ready to make a tilt at strong support at 4330 or find a more positive tone?
This week we manage risk, consider our exposures and positions over key event risk/news and model potential movement against the account balance. Stop placement is key, where understanding the degree of risk taken on will only serve you well. Good luck.
The marquee event risks for the week ahead:
ECB meeting (Thursday 22:15 AEST) – A hawkish pause? The ECB meeting is a significant risk event for EUR FX / EU equity traders and one that could result in a sizeable bout in cross-asset volatility. EU swaps price 9bp of hikes (a 38% chance of a hike), and 18bp of hikes cumulative to the peak rate (in December) and this could play a key factor in the reaction of the EUR. We see 26/49 economists see the ECB leaving rates unchanged, highlighting just how split the view is out there. Positioning in the EUR is held very short by leveraged insto funds, while retail has positioned exposures for a counter move and a bounce in EURUSD.
Given pricing and positioning, we should see a more pronounced rally in the EUR on a 25bp hike, than a fall if we see rates kept unchanged, at least to the initial reaction to the rates call. Rate hike (or not) aside, ECB guidance, new economic projections and debate around PEPP reinvestments could result in vicious intraday reversals playing out, so trading over news – if that is your tipple - will be a challenge and it pays to be nimble.
US CPI (Wed 22:30 AEST) – The outcome of the CPI report could significantly shape expectations for the November FOMC meeting, where the market is currently pricing a balanced 12bp of hikes. The market eyes US headline CPI at 0.6% MoM/3.6% YoY and core CPI at 0.2% MoM/4.3% YoY. By way of market pricing, the CPI ‘fixings’ market (market pricing for the CPI print) is pricing headline CPI at 3.64%, while alternatively, the Cleveland Fed inflation Nowcast model sees US headline CPI headline inflation higher at 3.8% and core CPI at 4.46%, offering modest upside risk to the economist’s consensus call.
The form guide has favoured short USD positions, where the USD index (DXY) has dropped in the 30 minutes after each of the past 6 CPI reports. This time could be different given USD positioning. I am biased for USDJPY to push above 148, with current underlying momentum favouring longs.
US PPI inflation (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – Overshadowed by the US CPI report and the ECB meeting (15 minutes earlier), US PPI is expected to print 0.4% MoM / 1.3% YoY. If the PPI print proves to be a big beat/miss to consensus it could make trading through this period even more problematic.
US retail sales (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The market eyes sales of +0.1% for August, while the ‘control’ group – the sales element that feeds more directly into the GDP calculation – is expected to fall 0.1%. The market picks and chooses when to run with this data point, so I suspect it could be a vol event only should we see a sizeable beat/miss to expectations.
UK jobs and wages report (Tuesday 16:00 AEST) – The swaps market prices 19bp of hikes for the 21 Sept BoE meeting, with peak bank rate expectations at 5.56% by Feb 2024. The UK jobs/wages report could influence that pricing, with the consensus expecting the unemployment rate eyed at 4.3% (from 4.2%) and wages unchanged at 7.8%. GBPUSD eyes the 200-day MA (1.2427), and a level for the scalpers. Leveraged funds are now short GBP, while the slower-moving real money is still holding a punchy net long GBP position.
BoE speakers – Chief economist Huw Pill speaks (Monday 18:00 AEST) and External member Catherine Mann speaks the day after (Tuesday 09:00 AEST). The market is certainly warming to a one-more-and-done approach from the BoE and GBP has taken notice.
China high-frequency data (Friday 12:00 AEST) – We watch for Industrial production (consensus 3.9% vs. 3.7% July), fixed asset investment (3.3% from 3.4%), and retail sales (3% vs. 2.5% July) – so some improvement is expected in this data flow. China equity could be sensitive to this growth data, although on current trends CHINAH is favoured into 6000. USDCNH also pushing to new cycle highs, and I stay bullish this cross.
PBOC decision on the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF - Friday 11:20 AEST) – Only one economist (of 11 surveyed by Bloomberg) is calling for a cut to the MLF facility, with the strong consensus that it is too soon after the recent policy easing to see more. USDCNH is still a favoured long exposure.
Australia employment report (Thursday 11:30 AEST) – The consensus calls for 25.5k jobs created in August. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.7%, although that could be influenced by the participation rate, which is expected to remain at 66.7%. I can’t see this data point affecting expectations of RBA policy too intently, with the market staunchly of the view that the RBA are on an extended pause. AUDUSD - Tactically, favour placing limit orders and to fade intraday extremes, as the initial move shouldn’t stick.
Apple ‘Wonderlust’ event (Tuesday) – The market is looking more closely at the news flow around China’s proposed iPhone curbs, and how that plays into expected revenue. ‘Wonderlust’ is likely more of an event for the tech heads, with the new iPhone 15 due to be unveiled – I see no statistical pattern, or price trends, through prior product launches to offer any bias on how the tech giant could trade.
Bitcoin (BTC) -> Bullish Cycle ComingMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Bitcoin.
Looking at the chart of Bitcoin you can see that just 8 months ago Bitcoin perfectly retested the previous cycle high of 2018 at the $18.000 level and rejected towards the upside.
I think that the whole crypto market but especially Bitcoin is ready for a new bullish cycle and after another short term drop on Bitcoin I do expect a longer term bullish continuation.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Live stream - FXOpen Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: APPLEIn this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
How to tell which way inflation is going?In this video, we are studying the time lag between commodities, inflation data, and central bank decisions.
3 types of crude oil for trading:
• Crude Oil Futures
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Code: CL
• E-mini Crude Oil Futures
0.025 per barrel = $12.50
Code QM
• Micro WTI Crude Oil
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Code MCL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
How To Use & Set Alerts for Chart Pattern Recognition ToolsToday we take a look at how to put chart & candlestick pattern recognition tools onto your chart as well as set alerts for them so that you can notified each time one is present.
Please hit that LIKE/BOOST button before you head out & if you have any questions, comments or ideas for my next Tradingview Basics video, PLEASE LEAVE THEM BELOW!
Akil
Crash coming soon
I wrote this 18 months ago. I still stand by every word.
TLDR:
April 2022.. Recession fears, interest rate hikes, high inflation
In the first phase of a recession, the market falls due to fear because "everyone knows a recession is coming"
In the second phase, companies report excellent profits because "duh it's inflation that's why we raise our prices" when actually they are price gouging swine. Excellent profits = market rises, which traders don't understand because "Wait this is a recession? I seem to be short and caught".
Third phase.. No one has any savings left, thanks to the price gouging. Rents and heating bills and food prices are sky-high. The proles can only afford the basics. Companies will only report their drops in profits 3 months later. At first it's just a few poor reports, then a flood. They don't have sufficient reserves because they had pressure to pay fat dividends to the greedy funds that own them, so they start to fail. This happens just as all the shorts in stocks cut their losses and buy it back and those who missed out on the "fools rally" crack and buy in at the top.
Fourth phase: Crash.
We may get a new ATH or a double top beforehand, but you heard the truth here first.
Look at the Commitments of Traders indicator at the bottom.. Big boys selling off. We give this away free. See website.
Live stream - BoC Rate Unchanged, EU Preliminary GDP And Crude OToday’s technical overview – Nikkei225, China50, ASX200, DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq100, DAX40, FTSE100, DXY, Gold, Silver, Wheat, WTI Oil, Ripple, Litecoin, AUDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, CHFJPY, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDMXN, GBPAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURNZD, EURUSD.
Learn the 4 Best Strategies to Maximize Your Profits Today
In the today's article, we will discuss 4 classic yet profitable forex and gold trading strategies.
1️⃣Pullback Trading
Pullback trading is a trend-following strategy where you open the positions after pullbacks.
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, your goal as a pullback trader is to wait for a completion of a bullish impulse and then let the market correct itself. Your entry should be the assumed completion point of a correctional movement. You expect a trend-following movement from there.
In a bearish trend, you wait for a completion of the bearish impulse, let the market retrace, and you look for short-entry after a completion of the retracement leg.
Here is the example of pullback trading.
On the left chart, we see the market that is trading in a bearish trend.
A pullback trader would short the market upon completion of the correctional moves.
On the right chart, I underlined the buy entry points of a pullback trader.
That strategy is considered to be one of the simplest and profitable and appropriate for newbie traders.
2️⃣Breakout Trading
Breakout trading implies buying or selling the breakout of a horizontal structure or a trend line.
If the price breaks a key support, it signifies a strong bearish pressure.
Such a violation will trigger a bearish continuation with a high probability.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a key resistance is a sign of strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Take a look, how the price broke a key daily resistance on a daily time frame. After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure that turned into a support. A strong bullish rally initiated from that.
With the breakout trading, the best entries are always on a retest of a broken structure.
3️⃣Range Trading
Range trading signifies trading the market that is consolidating.
Most of the time, the market consolidates within the horizontal ranges.
The boundaries of the range may provide safe points to buy and sell the market from.
The upper boundary of the range is usually a strong resistance and one may look for shorting opportunities from there,
while the lower boundary of the range is a safe place to buy the market from.
EURCAD pair is trading within a horizontal range on a daily.
The support of the range is a safe zone to buy the market from.
A bullish movement is anticipated to the resistance of the range from there.
Taking into considerations, that the financial instruments may consolidate for days, weeks and even months, range trading may provide substantial gains.
4️⃣Counter Trend Trading
Counter trend trading signifies trading against the trend.
No matter how strong is the trend, the markets always trade in zig-zags. After impulses follow the corrections, and after the corrections follow the impulses.
Counter trend traders looks for a completion of the bullish impulses in a bullish trend to short the market;
and for a completion of bearish impulses in a downtrend to buy it.
Here is the example of a counter trend trade.
EURJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, the last 3 bearish moves initiated from a rising trend line. For a trader, shorting the trend line was a perfect entry to catch a bearish move.
Such trading strategy is considered to be one of the most complicated, because one goes against the crowd and overall sentiment.
With the experience, traders may combine these strategies.
Try them all, and find the one that suites you the most.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Impact of FAA Regulations and Rumors in Aerospace Stock TradingInvesting in aerospace-related stocks can be a lucrative endeavor due to the industry's potential for growth and innovation. You may find a lot of long-term investors holding major airline stocks (especially, positions added during COVID lows) and relatively new aerospace startups. However, it is essential to closely monitor and consider the impact of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations and even rumors on their investment decisions even if you’re not day trading these stocks. In this article, we explore real-life examples of how FAA regulations have negatively affected the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector, highlighting the crucial role of monitoring and reacting to regulatory developments.
Example #1. FAA Limits on Flight Numbers and the Plunge in US Airline Stocks:
The FAA recently imposed restrictions on the number of flights to alleviate pressure on the national airspace. While this regulation aims to enhance safety and efficiency, it has directly impacted US airline stocks, such as American Airlines (AAL). Airlines faced reduced capacity and higher operational costs. This resulted in decreased revenue and profitability, causing a sharp decline in American Airlines' stock price. Investors who were not prepared for this regulatory change suffered losses. However, in reality this has been a topic of conversation since April, so the late June announcement shouldn’t have caught anybody by surprise. If taken proper measures, the positions might have been cashed out at July highs until the FAA inevitable reduces the geography of this regulation. Which it already started as of 3-4 weeks ago, meaning we can expect a retracement soon.
Example #2. Minimum Flight Time Requirements and the Struggles of EVTOL Companies:
FAA regulations now require small aircraft, including Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (EVTOL) vehicles, to have a minimum flight time of 30 minutes. This regulation has posed significant challenges for EVTOL companies like Joby Aviation, as battery technology limitations make meeting this requirement very difficult. For instance, even industry leaders like Joby Aviation, despite its high potential, faced setbacks due to the FAA's minimum flight time regulation. The company's stock price suffered as investors became wary of the challenges presented by battery size limitations amid this new requirement.
Some other example of FAA regulations impacting aerospace stocks include:
1. Noise Restrictions: Recent FAA regulations aimed at reducing aircraft noise levels have affected companies specializing in quieter aviation technologies.
2. Safety Mandates: Stricter safety regulations have led to increased research and development costs for aerospace companies, impacting their profitability.
3. Environmental Regulations: Regulations promoting sustainable aviation and reducing carbon emissions have influenced aerospace companies' strategies, causing fluctuations in their stock performance.
As you may see FAA regulations have a substantial and immediate impact on the stock prices of companies in the aerospace sector. However, this analogy was just an example because of my personal interest as a PhD in Aerospace Engineering and investor into several aerospace stocks. In reality, when trading/investing you should always stay up to date with regulations imposed by your governing body (food or pharmacy should watch out for FDA and so on). Knowledge is power, dear community members. So stay alert and informed in any comfortable way for you. Some like to watch Bloomberg, some read yahoo finance. In reality, you can substitute that by reading through some of the deep good breakdowns by fellow TradingView writers. Make the most out of it!
How to Trade the Ascending TriangleWelcome to Part 2 of our 7-part Power Patterns series. In this series, we'll be equipping you with the skills to trade some of the most powerful price patterns which occur on any timeframe in every market.
This week’s pattern, the ascending triangle can often precede fast and powerful breakouts. A strong understanding of this pattern is essential for any trader looking to trade with the trend.
We’ll teach you:
Why the ascending triangle is our favourite type of bull flag
How to trade this pattern with precision
Why volume is this patterns perfect companion
I. Key characteristics of the ascending triangle:
The essence of this pattern lies in the convergence of support and resistance lines, effectively compressing the market toward an impending breakout.
Horizontal resistance : The upper boundary of the ascending triangle acts as a significant resistance level, representing the area where selling pressure has historically been strong.
Ascending trendline : The ascending trendline connects higher swing lows, indicating increasing buying pressure as higher swing lows are formed.
Preceding trend : The ascending triangle should be preceded by a clear and obvious uptrend.
II. Not your average bull flag
In the realm of pattern analysis, ascending triangles are often grouped with bull flags, which encompass various patterns like pennants, wedges, symmetrical triangles, and bull channels. These patterns typically signify a pause in an uptrend, indicating a period of consolidation in the market.
However, during this consolidation phase, a subtle battle unfolds as buyers seek to accumulate while sellers aim to distribute. The challenge lies in determining which side has the upper hand and this is what makes ascending triangles so useful. Ascending triangles stand out from the crowd of bull flags due to one crucial distinction:
Ascending triangles signal increasing buying pressure
The sequence of higher swing lows meeting a horizontal resistance level serves as a unique indicator that buying pressure is on the rise even as the market consolidates. This particular characteristic sets ascending triangles apart from other bull flag patterns, rendering them notably more potent.
III. How to trade the ascending triangle:
Identifying the ascending triangle: Begin by scanning price charts for the distinctive pattern of higher swing lows connected by an ascending trendline and a horizontal resistance line. Confirmation of the pattern requires at least two reaction highs and two reaction lows.
Entry points: Look for entry opportunities when the price breaks above the horizontal resistance line, signalling a potential bullish breakout. Some traders may prefer to enter early by buying near the ascending trendline with a stop-loss order below it.
Stop-loss placement: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the ascending trendline or below the most recent swing low.
Price targets: Calculate potential price targets by measuring the height of the triangle's vertical distance and projecting it upward from the breakout point. Additionally, consider previous swing highs or key resistance levels as potential targets.
IV. The indicator which best complements the ascending triangle:
While the ascending triangle pattern holds its own in providing valuable insights, incorporating volume can significantly enhance its effectiveness. This additional dimension serves as both a quality filter and a confirmation tool before committing to ascending triangle breakouts.
Diminishing volume : During the development of the ascending triangle, a common occurrence is a gradual decline in trading volume.
Breakout confirmation : Ideally, a breakout should be marked by a noticeable surge in trading volume. This surge acts as a validation of the breakout's strength and serves as a crucial deterrent against false signals.
V. Managing risks and pitfalls:
False breakouts: Be aware that ascending triangles can sometimes experience false breakouts, where the price briefly moves above the resistance line before reversing lower. This highlights the importance of waiting for confirmation and monitoring volume during the breakout.
Risk management: Implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversifying your trading portfolio. This helps protect against unexpected market movements and potential losses.
Additional analysis: Don't rely solely on the ascending triangle pattern for trading decisions. Supplement your analysis with other technical indicators, fundamental factors, and market sentiment to gain a comprehensive view of the market.
Disclaimer: All content is provided for general information only and should not be construed as any form of advice or personal recommendation. The provision of this content is not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Disney: Is The Content Gold Rush Over?Over the last 6 months, there's been an interesting trend happening.
Stocks in media delivery networks, like Charter and Comcast, have done quite well, while shares of content companies, like Disney, Paramount, and Warner Bros, have deeply underperformed.
This performance lies in contrast to the "content is king" narrative that's been popular amongst investors over the last decade or so.
What's happening here?
There's 3 issues at play.
First up; the writer / actor strikes. These strikes have hurt content companies as they've introduced costs into the system. Either these will come in the form of opportunity cost as less profitable content gets made, or direct costs should Paramount, Netflix, or Warner Bros consent to the profit-share demands of labor.
Secondly, debt. This applies mostly to WBD, but to a lesser degree it impacts all of the content companies. Debt has reduced FCF across the board at these companies, which has led to a decline in both profits, and earnings multiples.
Finally, Business Strategy. Netflix changed the game in the 2010's as it pioneered a DTC video consumer model. As the company boomed, they began producing their own shows to the degree that the company is now a vertically integrated entertainment powerhouse. Other companies, like Paramount, lack the scale to achieve this. Thus, costs of running Paramount+ have skyrocketed, when it may have just been more profitable to license their final content products.
This approach allows for less bargaining power (due to the lack of customer relationship ownership), which is why it likely hasn't been pursued. However, things will likely switch back, which should lead to higher profits in the long run for shareholders.
Here at PropNotes, we believe that things are set to turn around. The DIS / CHTR spread has hit all time lows:
Once media companies realize that they can generate the same leverage in licensing negotiations by creating compelling content, the cash will begin to flow, and companies like DIS will continue to print money. This will take some time, but there's a potential trade here once the heiken ashi candles begin to print green. It's going to be a long, bullish trade once that happens.
Cheers!
Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
Overview of the Markets - SPX RTY NQ IWM SOXXJust an overview of what I'm seeing and why I'm still being patient with my short position. Of course if things don't start falling soon, we may have something else happening and I'll have to be open to that. I cover a few sectors that stand out to me as examples of structure and RSI which looks ready to turn down. Good luck!
The Best Forex Strategy I've Used in 3 Years | 4 IndicatorsHey Rich Friends,
Here is my trading strategy in black and white. Nothing more, nothing less. Stop overthinking. Stop overtrading. Stop overleveraging. Focus on finding great setups that meet all confirmations and let the market do the rest.
Indicators:
50 EMA (blue)
200 EMA (purple)
Momentum (turn on price line)
Stochastic (turn on price line)
Bullish confirmations (Up, Above, Over, Higher):
1. Candles above/crossing up 1 or both EMAS
2. MOM is facing up AND/OR above 0.
3. Stoch is facing up. Stoch is above 50. The blue line is above the orange line. Must have all 3 or wait
Bearish confirmations (Down, Below, Under, Lower):
1. Candles below/crossing down 1 or both EMAS
2. MOM is facing down AND/OR below the dotted 0 line.
3. Stoch is facing down. Stoch is below the dotted 50. The blue line is below the orange line. Must have all 3 or wait.
What's next for the rate debate?The U.S. interest rate debate changed dramatically in August 2023.
The economic debate shifted gears with diminishing concerns about a recession, leading U.S. long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply. And the debate over future Federal Reserve policy transitioned from trying to call the peak in short-term rates to discussing the length of time rates might remain elevated. The net result was a less inverted U.S. yield curve, not because short-term interest rates fell, but because long-term yields rose.
With the no recession view becoming the more popular base case, there has also been a shift in the longer-term inflation debate. Without a recession, many economists are coming to the view that core inflation, which the Fed targets, will remain well above the Fed’s 2% target throughout 2024 and possibly longer.
We studied extended periods where short-term rates held above the prevailing inflation rate. There appears to be a loose relationship between the growth of nominal GDP and long-term Treasury yields. This makes sense if one thinks about nominal GDP growth as part inflation and part real economic activity, and it helps explain why bond yields have moved higher.
Put another way, the period of 1% fed funds rates under the Greenspan Fed in the early 2000s and then the near-zero fed funds rates introduced by the Bernanke Fed after the 2008 Great Recession are historical outliers.
These super low rates encouraged a search for yield and popularized the view that the Fed has the market’s back, artificially supporting both equities and bond prices (that is, lower bond yields).
The Powell-led Fed is guiding us that those days are in the rearview mirror, and market participants are starting to agree.
In his closely watched Jackson Hole speech, Powell highlighted the economic uncertainty ahead and how risk management remains key moving forward.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
The 3 Musketeers of Risk AnalysisIntroduction:
In the world of investing, managing risk is as crucial as seeking returns. Three vital tools for assessing risk-adjusted returns are the Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Omega Ratio. In this post, we'll explore these ratios, their calculation, their unique features, and when to use them.
1. Sharpe Ratio: Balancing Risk and Return
Measures risk-adjusted returns using total volatility (both up and down).
Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Portfolio Standard Deviation.
Strength: Widely accepted and provides a simple assessment of risk-adjusted return.
Weakness: Assumes normal distribution and ignores skewness.
2. Sortino Ratio: Focusing on Downside Risk
Emphasizes downside risk.
Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Downside Deviation (only negative returns).
Strength: Ideal for risk-averse investors and non-normally distributed returns.
Weakness: Ignores upside volatility.
3. Omega Ratio: Probability of Positive Returns
Evaluates risk-adjusted returns based on the probability of achieving positive returns.
Formula: Probability of Positive Returns / Probability of Negative Returns.
Strength: Provides insights into return probabilities and considers tail events.
Weakness: Less recognized and may require more data.
Conclusion:
Understanding these ratios helps investors make informed decisions. The Sharpe Ratio simplifies risk-return assessment, the Sortino Ratio prioritizes downside protection, and the Omega Ratio analyzes return probabilities. Combining these ratios offers a comprehensive view of investment performance in an unpredictable financial world.
How to Use the Supertrend Indicator to Day Trade CryptoOne of the first pieces of advice given to new traders is to “trade with the trend.” That’s where a simple yet effective indicator known as Supertrend comes in. This tool can help you identify and get in early on emerging trends. Therefore, it has found significant popularity amongst crypto day traders. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at the Supertrend indicator, discussing its signals, the best Supertrend settings, and four strategies you can get started with right away.
What Is the Supertrend Indicator?
The Supertrend indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify and follow market trends. It’s a lagging indicator that can be used to develop comprehensive trend-following strategies, assisting traders in spotting reversals and the start of new trends.
Supertrend incorporates a volatility metric called average true range (ATR) into its calculations and is plotted with a single line overlaid on the chart.
This line represents the trend direction. When price is above the Supertrend line, the line will turn green to signal bullishness. Conversely, when price is below the Supertrend line, the line will turn red, so the market is considered bearish. The indicator’s signals are simple and effective in trending markets but can be incorrect in ranging markets, meaning it’s best to seek extra confirmation before considering entries.
Supertrend Indicator: Formula and Calculation
The Supertrend indicator is calculated using two key components: ATR and a multiplier. The ATR measures the overall price range of an asset, offering an indication of its volatility. The multiplier allows traders to change the sensitivity of the indicator.
The formula for the Supertrend indicator is as follows:
Upper Supertrend Line (Red) = (High + Low) / 2 + (Multiplier x ATR)
Lower Supertrend Line (Green) = (High + Low) / 2 - (Multiplier x ATR)
The default settings for ATR and the multiplier are typically 10 periods and 3, respectively. A shorter ATR will give more weight to recent price action, while a longer ATR will smooth out values. However, changing this value won’t have as much bearing on the indicator as the multiplier.
By moving the multiplier up or down, traders can adjust the Supertrend’s sensitivity. A lower multiplier increases the number of overall signals and false signals while allowing for a tighter stop loss. A higher multiplier will generate fewer entries and false signals, often at the cost of a wider stop.
Identifying Trade Signals
The Supertrend indicator offers fairly simple buy and sell signals, determined by observing the relationship between the price and the line.
Buy signals occur when price crosses above the Supertrend line. In this scenario, the Supertrend line often acts as a dynamic support level, which could be an ideal entry point for a long position. The bullish trend is considered intact as long as the price stays above the Supertrend line.
Sell signals are generated when price falls below the Supertrend line. Similarly, the Supertrend line acts as a dynamic resistance level, which may be a suitable entry point for a short position. Traders can maintain their short positions if the price remains below the Supertrend line.
How to Use the Supertrend Indicator for Crypto Trading
The indicator can be applied to various timeframes, from intraday charts to daily and weekly charts. However, shorter timeframes, such as the 5-minute or 15-minute charts, are more common for day trading, as they offer more frequent trading opportunities.
What Are the Best Supertrend Settings for Crypto Trading?
But what Supertrend settings are optimal for crypto trading? In truth, there is no one-size-fits-all setting. Generally speaking, the theory says it’s best to keep the ATR value somewhere between 10 and 20 since this will provide a good mix of sensitivity to recent price action and smoothing.
As for the multiplier, the standard factor of 3 is suitable. Some traders may prefer to adjust it to 4, 5, or 6, to account for crypto volatility, although this may lead to a reduced risk/reward ratio. Ultimately, the best settings will depend on market conditions and the crypto asset you’re trading, so it’s wise to experiment to find your optimal configuration.
Supertrend Indicator Settings for Crypto Intraday Trading
For intraday trading focusing on short-term price movements, you could consider adjusting the Supertrend settings to increase sensitivity to price fluctuations. One possible configuration is to use a multiplier of 2 and an ATR period of 10. This setup can help identify more trade signals and adapt to rapid market changes, allowing traders to enter and exit within a few minutes or hours.
Supertrend: Best Settings for Crypto Swing Trading
Given that swing trading typically involves holding positions for several days or weeks, swing traders may prefer to adjust the settings slightly higher. This will offer a clearer reading of the broader trend. The ATR can be set anywhere between 10 and 20, while a multiplier of 5 will reduce the number of false signals.
Trend-following swing traders may also benefit from setting a bias using the Supertrend on the 4-hour or daily charts and then using the hourly chart to enter trades. It’s not uncommon for an asset to range on the hourly chart and whipsaw above and below the Supertrend while remaining bullish or bearish on the higher timeframes. This can help to avoid confusion when the market ranges.
How to Create an Effective Supertrend Indicator Strategy for Crypto Trading
Now that we have an idea of what the Supertrend indicator is, how it works, and the best settings to use, we can begin to formulate some strategies. If you want to test them for yourself, you can try our free TickTrader platform at FXOpen. There, you’ll find the Supertrend indicator and dozens of other technical tools waiting for you to use.
1-Minute Supertrend Scalping Strategy
Using the 10-period ATR and 2-factor multiplier mentioned, we can create a 1-minute Supertrend crypto scalping strategy.
Entry: When the line turns green/red, we can enter with a long/short market order as the candle closes.
Stop Loss: Above or below the nearest swing high/low, depending on the direction of the trade.
Take Profit: You can close the trade when Supertrend switches to another colour.
As seen in the example, this provides traders with some decent scalping opportunities to enter early with relatively tight stop-loss levels.
Double Supertrend Strategy
This strategy uses two Supertrends with different settings to reduce the number of false signals. It aligns the more sensitive Supertrend’s signals with a less reactive version while still allowing for relatively tight entries.
Requirements: A fast Supertrend with lower settings (blue and orange) – default 10-period ATR and 3-factor multiplier is suitable. A slow Supertrend with higher settings (green and red), like 20 and 7.
Entry: The fast Supertrend will typically precede the slow Supertrend, so observe the fast signals and wait for the slow lines to confirm the direction (both should show either bullish or bearish). Traders can enter with a market order once confirmed or wait for a retrace to the slow Supertrend and enter with a limit order.
Stop Loss: Above or below a nearby swing high/low depending on the trend direction.
Take Profit: You can close the trade when the slow Supertrend signals a change in direction.
In the example shown, we can see that while the faster Supertrend switches back and forth between bullish and bearish, our strategy stays aligned with the stronger overall trend, allowing us to capture the bulk of the move until it reverses.
3 Supertrend Strategy
This strategy seeks extra confirmation using three Supertrends and an exponential moving average (EMA). The EMA helps us classify the trend in another way (above = bullish, below = bearish). Simply put, we wait until all three align before considering an entry.
Requirements: Three Supertrends with varying settings. We’ve used 10 and 2, 20 and 4, and 30 and 6. You’ll also need a 200-period EMA.
Entry: Wait until all three Supertrends are green and price is above the 200 EMA for a long entry, and vice versa, to enter with a market order.
Stop Loss: Above or below a nearby swing point.
Take Profit: You may close the trade when all three turn red if bullish or green if bearish.
While this strategy won’t offer many entries throughout the day, it can help traders jump on trends with strong confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Supertrend Strategy
While the relative strength index (RSI) is best known for its ability to spot overbought and oversold conditions, it can also help us confirm trends. The midpoint (50) is regarded as the defining boundary, with action above indicating bullishness and below demonstrating bearishness. Here, we’ve also increased the Supertrend multiplier to 5 to get a clearer picture of the trend.
Requirements: The default RSI with 14 periods and the Supertrend with a length of 10 and multiplier of 5.
Entry: When Supertrend gives a bullish or bearish signal, confirm that RSI is above or below 50, depending on the direction. If both line up, traders may enter with a market order.
Stop Loss: Above or below a nearby swing point.
Take Profit: You can close the trade when the Supertrend switches or if RSI is reading above 70 or below 30, indicating extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
The added benefit of using RSI means that traders can anticipate trend reversals when the indicator reads overbought or oversold or when divergences appear, allowing for some predictability as to when the Supertrend might switch.
Stochastic Supertrend Strategy
The stochastic indicator is similar in principle to RSI, helping traders spot overbought and oversold conditions. However, it frequently flashes these signals, offering us a way to confirm Supertrend signals and entries.
Requirements: The default stochastic indicator, with settings 14, 1, and 3. Set the Supertrend to a multiplier of 5.
Entry: After the Supertrend signals a certain direction, wait for the first time Stochastic reaches below 20 if bullish or above 80 if bearish to enter with a market order. Avoid trading if it’s not the first time.
Stop Loss: Above or below a nearby swing high or low.
Take Profit: You may close the trade when Supertrend changes colours.
The Stochastic indicator allows traders to identify areas where the market is likely to reverse and, when combined with Supertrend, can assist us in finding optimal entries with strong confirmation.
The Bottom Line
In summary, the Supertrend indicator is a versatile tool that can help traders capitalise on new trends with fairly simple entry and exit signals. While it can produce false signals, particularly in ranging markets, the strategies described should help you filter out some of these losing trades.
Moreover, these strategies aren’t exclusive to crypto; you can apply and adjust them to any market you see fit, including forex, commodities, and stocks. If you’re thinking of implementing these strategies, you can open an FXOpen account. You’ll be able to access over 600 markets in the highly customisable TickTrader platform alongside low-cost trading and tight spreads. Just complete the signup process to get started. Good luck!
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
How to Trade the FakeoutWelcome to our Power Patterns series in which we teach you how to trade some of the most powerful price patterns which occur on any timeframe in every market.
This week’s pattern, the fakeout is beautifully simple and has the power to be highly effective. It has stood the test of time and should be a key part of any price action traders arsenal.
We’ll teach you:
Why the pattern is so powerful
How to identify and anticipate the pattern
Three simple rules that can supercharge the patterns effectiveness
I. Understanding the fakeout:
The term ‘fakeout’ is trading slang for false breakout, the fakeout pattern occurs when a breakout fails at a key horizontal level in the market.
We’ll be focusing on the single bar fakeout which means that the failure of the breakout must occur within the same candle or bar.
The pattern can be applied to a bullish or bearish scenario:
The bullish fakeout:
This occurs when the market breaks below a key level of support only for the breakout to fail and for the market to close back above the support level.
In trading, a picture really is worth a thousand words so check out the chart below. And if you want to take your learning of this pattern to the next level then please try and hunt down as many examples of this pattern as possible.
NOTE: The horizontal support level and the fakeout candle must be on the same timeframe - the chart below is the daily candle chart but you can trade this pattern on any timeframe.
The bearish fake-out:
This occurs when the market breaks above a key level of resistance only for the breakout to fail and for the market to close back below the resistance level.
Here’s an example on the hourly candle chart:
Here’s an example of bullish and bearish setups forming when a market starts to trade in a sideways range:
Why the fakeout can be so powerful
The fake-out pattern can be so powerful because it can exploit herd behaviour in a deliciously effective way.
When a market starts to breakout, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) may herd traders into the market. This fear could drive them to enter positions hastily, often without waiting for confirmation.
Then, as the breakout starts to fail, the herd may head for the exit and panic sets in as trapped traders cover losses.
II. How to trade the fakeout:
Identifying and anticipating the fakeout: First and foremost, traders need to identify key support and resistance levels. It’s worth setting a price alert at these key levels so you’re alerted to when the market tests them. When the level is tested, set a time alert for when the candle closes. Through the disciplined use of price and time alerts, you’re unlikely to miss a fakeout again!
Entry Points: For bullish fake-out patterns, a trader may enter on a break above the fake-out candle high. For bearish fake-out patterns they would enter on a break of the fake-out candle low (see chart below for example).
Stop-Loss Placement: Traditional stop placement for the pattern is above or below the tail of the fakeout candle depending on if you’re going long or short. An alternative stop placement method is using a volatility-adjusted stop such as placing your stop a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) away from the current price. Whichever method you use, be consistent.
Price Targets: A limit order to take profit at the next level of support or resistance can be a robust approach to profit taking for this pattern. Alternative methods include taking a set multiple of risk or trailing stops to lock in profits.
Bullish scenario:
Bearish scenario:
III. Three simple rules that could increase the patterns effectiveness:
Rule 1: The more prominent the level, the more powerful the fakeout can be
Support and resistance levels should be clear and obvious, a breakout above or below multi-day or multi-week highs or lows are likely to gain the most attention, meaning a higher number of trapped traders should the breakout fail.
Rule 2: The longer the tail, the more powerful the fakeout could be
The tail of the breakout candle represents the prices which the market was pushed to prior to the breakout failing. Longer tails typically indicate a higher number of trapped traders.
Rule 3: The less consolidation near the level, the more powerful the fakeout
Traders should be wary when price starts to consolidate just below a key area of resistance or just above a key area of support. This ‘base’ raises the probability of a breakout holding.
IV. Managing Risks and pitfalls:
Risk Management: Implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversifying your trading portfolio. This helps protect against unexpected market movements and potential losses.
Additional Analysis: Don't rely solely on the fakeout pattern for trading decisions. Supplement your analysis with fundamental factors and market sentiment to gain a comprehensive view of the market.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Is EURUSD Ready To Change The Direction Of The Short-Term Trend?Looking at the technical picture of EASYMARKETS:EURUSD on our 4-hour chart, we can see that the pair made its way back to its short-term tentative downside resistance line drawn from the high of 18th of July. This happened after finding support near the 1.0765 territory.
Given that the downside line currently remains intact, according to the TA rules, we have to stick to the downside scenario and aim lower. That said, we will most likely go with that plan, if we see strong rejections near that trendline. If that happens, we will then aim for the 1.0842 obstacle, or even the 1.0783 and 1.0765 levels. A break of the latter one would confirm a forthcoming lower low, possibly inviting even more sellers into the game.
As we also know, the more tests a trendline experiences, the more chances for a break there is. If the previously mentioned trendline surrenders to the bulls and we also see a push above the current high of this week, at 1.0892, this may spook the bears from the field for a while. FX_IDC:EURUSD could then make its way to the high of last week, at the 1.0930 zone, or the psychological 1.1000 territory.
@DariusAnucauskas
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
How To Use Bar Tick Replay & historical DataIn today's Tradingview Basics video Akil Stokes walks you through his FAVORITE tool here on Tradingview which is Bar Tick Replay.
Having the ability to go back through historical dat whether it's fore data acquisition and/or find tune your trading eye is KEY to becoming a consistently profitable trader in my opinion.
Hope you enjoyed the video and if you have any questions or comments, please leave them below.
Akil
Macro Monday 9~ Initial Jobless Claims MACRO MONDAY 9
Initial Jobless Claims
Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels
Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. "Initial claims" refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time following job loss
First-time jobless claims can be a useful leading indicator because elevated numbers tend to lead to further economic weakness, and to decline ahead of a recovery
Initial claims show the recent layoffs trend and does not a full picture of the labor market however it can provide more frequent data points indicating the trend in layoffs based on the recent decisions of U.S. employers. The layoffs trend can be particularly telling at economic turning points. With that in mind lets look at the chart and its historic patterns.
The Chart
The chart looks complicated but is incredibly simple and can be summarised as follows.
- Recessions are in red
- Increases to Initial Jobless Claims prior to recessions are in blue
- It is clear that prior to recessions Jobless Claims typically increase but for how long and by
what amount?
- The min/max increase in claims prior to recession is between 35k - 127k
- The min/max timeframe of increasing claims prior to recession is 7 - 23 months
- The average of the above is a 71k claims increase over a 14 month period.
- At present we are below that average at 49k increase over 11 months @ 230,000 claims.
- I have set out levels on the chart for us to monitor going forward in line with the min and
max claims amounts and timelines as above. We can monitor these levels on trading view
going forward just by pressing play and seeing if we are nearing or hitting the indicative
levels.
- Once we reach the average increase amount at 252k or the average timeline of 14 months
in Nov 2023, we are entering into higher risk recession territory.
Currently, the max increase in claims prior to recession is projected to be at the level of 308,000 (based on historic claims) and the max timeframe is out to Aug 2024 (based on historic timeframes) thus indicating that between Nov 2023 and Aug 2024, subject to continued increasing initial claims (above the average level of 252,000) it is probable that there will be a recession within this time window (Not guaranteed). If initial claims fall below their recent low of 200,000 I believe this might invalidate the possibility of a recession or at least have a significant lagging effect on time horizon. At present this outcome seems unlikely but anything is possible and we can monitor this on an ongoing basis.
The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the above recessions however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2). September will be the 6th month of that 6 – 22 month window and thus we are closing in on dangerous territory very fast.
From reviewing initial jobless claims we can see how from Nov 2023 we are stepping into a higher risk zone on this chart also (subject to continued higher increases in claims). Should we have claims higher than the average of 252,000 we will be confirming another step towards a higher risk of a recession.
Factoring in yield curve inversion and the initial jobless claims we could consider the months of Sept-Oct 2023 as Risk level 1 (yield curve inversion time window opens) and Nov-Dec 2023 as stepping into a higher Risk Level 2 (Jobless claims average timeframe hit). Should the yield curve continue to move up towards being un-inverted and should Jobless Claims increase then Jan 2024 forward could be considered a higher Risk level 3.
Adding to the above concerns is that M2 Money supply is still reducing (Macro Monday 8) and Global Net Liquidity is continuing to reduce (Macro Monday 4) as the S&P 500 is hitting a major resistance zone when accounting for M2 money supply (Macro Monday 8). At present it is clear that liquidity is reducing both globally and in the US. Currently fiscal stimulus appears to be filling the gaps and may be causing additional lagging effects to the changes we have seen imposed by Federal Reserve (balance sheet reduction and increased interest rates). Keep in mind that the Fed is also targeting higher unemployment to help quell the effects of inflation thus adding to the relevance of the Initial Jobless Claims numbers.
Continued jobless claims are another metric that is not covered here today. Continued Jobless Claims accounts for the continuation of claims over a time period, thus indicating that those workers who made the first “Initial claims” have remained unemployed thereafter and have not managed to get new work. We might cover this in a future Macro Monday. Let me know if you want it sooner than later?
We need all the help we can find in managing risk going forward and I hope all these charts can help you with that.
We can monitor all these charts on my trading view just by pressing play and seeing where things are going. Regardless ill be providing updates along the way.
Be safe out there
PUKA
