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Pinefest #1 This Pinefest was closed October 28 2023. Congratulations to its winner, alexgrover with this script . █ CHALLENGE Create three functions that will return the exact value where two data series intersect: crossValue(source1, source2) crossoverValue(source1, source2) crossunderValue(source1, source2) When a cross occurs, the functions must return the intersection's value. When no cross occurs, they must return na . █ SUBMISSIONS Prepare your entry as a private open-source script publication, including a detailed description explaining to its audience how it works and can be useful, just like public scripts published in Community Scripts . Your private publication must comply with our Script Publishing Rules . Submit your entry as a comment in the Comments section below, with a link to your private publication. This way, all TradingViewers can view submissions. Note that publishing links to private publications is against House Rules; we make an exception for our Pinefest submissions. No public script publications will be accepted as entries. Participants who publish their entries publicly will be disqualified, and their publication will be hidden. Entries must be your own work. Calls to functions of previously published libraries (by you or others) are allowed, as is the use of a private library accompanying your entry. You have one week to submit your entry. Submission deadline: 28 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC If you have questions about this Pinefest, please post a comment below. █ EVALUATION CRITERIA A PineCoders committee will evaluate all submissions based on the following criteria: • Submission date • Solution to the challenge • Code efficiency • Code readability • Description • Visuals • Script usability • Compliance with our Script Publishing Rules In case two or more publications reach an identical final evaluation, the earliest submission will win. Committee decisions are final. █ REWARDS The winner of this Pinefest will receive 500 USD and publish their script publicly in our Community Scripts . Their publication will also be awarded an Editors' Pick , for which the winner will receive an additional 100 USD . Authors of the five highest-scoring submissions will be awarded TradingView merchandise.

How to find Key Price Action zones for Daytrading success Prepping a market for daytrading is an important part of my process and understanding and identifying the KEY LEVELS is the major part of that process. We have to build a Price Action picture of what may happen and what levels may be targeted so we will be ready for a trade. Understanding who (buyers or sellers) is getting caught off side and levels the market is targeting, will set us up for the higher probability trades. I discuss a few key concepts for Intraday trading and how I identify the important zones. I show some trade examples and high probability trade zones. ** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material ** ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **

Education

19:10

by TradeTheStructure

Day Trader's Toolbox: Previous Day's High and Low (PDH/PDL) Welcome to the Day Trader's Toolbox, a 3-Part series focused on enhancing your day trading skills. Day trading is all about seizing quick opportunities without overnight risk. In this first instalment, we'll delve into a fundamental tool every day trader should understand: the Previous Day's High (PDH) and Previous Day's Low (PDL). These levels are essential for making informed, rapid trading decisions, and we'll show you how to use them effectively. I. Understanding PDH and PDL: PDH and PDL are straightforward concepts. They signify the highest and lowest prices a market touched during the prior trading session. However, don't underestimate their significance. These levels are pivotal because they offer undeniable historical context for a market's price movement. As a result, they draw the attention of many market participants, increasing the likelihood of non-random price action at these levels. Here's why PDH and PDL stand out as the two most vital price lines a day trader can mark on their chart. Gauging strength or weakness PDH and PDL offer an objective glimpse into market sentiment, which holds immense value when formulating your daily trade plan. During the first hours trading, if the market comfortably holding above the PDH it is a clear sign of strength while failure to hold above the PDL is a clear sign of weakness. Just being aware of this simple concept can help keep day traders on the right side of the market. Here’s some examples: Holding above PDH is a clear sign of strength (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Failure to hold above PDL is a clear sign of weakness (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Price reversals: Traders use PDH and PDL to set stop-loss orders, take-profit levels, and as reference points for assessing the risk-reward ratio of a trade. Given the close attention PDH and PDL receive, they often act as both support and resistance levels, making them prime zones for potential price reversals. A reversal pattern forming at PDH or PDL typically carries greater significance than one occurring within the prior day's range. And should a market break and hold above the PDH, it can then provide support when the level is retested. Conversely, a break below PDL may offer resistance when the market trades below it. Here’s some examples: PDH and PDL acting as support and resistance (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Broken PDH becomes support (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Broken PDL becomes resistance (EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart): Take note of the compelling examples above. No additional indicators clutter the chart. Armed only with an understanding of how price reacts to PDH and PDL, you can make smart day trading decisions. For a deeper understanding, add PDH and PDL to your price charts and explore your own instances. You'll be astonished by how the market consistently responds to these levels. II. How to Use PDH and PDL Here are some practical tips for using PDH and PDL effectively in day trading: Identify PDH and PDL: Before you start trading, identify the PDH and PDL levels for the market you are trading. You can draw these levels on yourself or type in ‘Previous Day High and Low’ into the Indicators, Metrics and Strategies bar on Trading View – here you will find a number of scripts that will add PDH and PDL to your charts automatically. Observe price behaviour: Using the concepts outlined in section one ‘Understanding PDH and PDL’, you can create a game plan for the trading day based upon where price is trading in relation to PDH or PDL. For example, if price has opened within the prior days range the day trader may look to take bearish reversal patterns at the PDH and bullish reversal patterns at the PDL. Alternatively, if price is comfortably holding above PDH, the day trader may look to buy pullbacks. Combine with other indicators: PDH and PDL are even more powerful when used in conjunction with other technical indicators such as Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), moving averages, RSI and many other. This can help validate your trading decisions. Set stop-loss and take-profit orders: Use PDH and PDL as reference points to set stop-loss and take-profit orders. This helps manage risk and lock in profits. Stay informed: Keep an eye on news and events that could impact the market. Unexpected news can sometimes cause price gaps that bypass PDH or PDL. Practice and learn: The best way to become proficient in using PDH and PDL is through practice. Use Replay mode on Trading View to scroll through and replay many different trading days and hone your skills. In summary, the Previous Day's High (PDH) and Previous Day's Low (PDL) are foundational tools for day traders. They offer valuable insights into market sentiment, help identify potential reversal points, and act as key support and resistance levels. By incorporating these levels into your daily trade plan, you can make more informed and strategic decisions, keeping you on the right side of the market. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

Education

NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong Report Yesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report: → earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49; → revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion. → the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million. Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar. From the technical analysis point of view: → NFLX price returns to the ascending channel that was in effect in 2023 and seems to be becoming relevant again. The false breakout pattern could become a support zone in the future. → NFLX price exceeded USD 370 per share. Since early September, NFLX has been a laggard in the NASDAQ index, but after the report it may become one of the leaders. "While we have much work to do to build out this business, we're making good progress and laying the foundation for what we believe should be a multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time," Netflix executives wrote in a letter to shareholders. Resistance to a powerful bullish impulse may come from: → psychological level of USD 400; → level at USD 412 – during the summer, the level provided support. But it was broken on September 13-14, and with a bearish gap, which could slow down the rally if the price of NFLX reaches this level. Also note that here is the Fibo resistance level of 50% of the decline A→B. According to TipRanks, analysts have a target price of USD 454 for NFLX, but given its recent performance, the forecast could be raised. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.3 This is Part 3 of my epic series breaking down every major, relevant Segment in Bitcoins' price history, and explaining how they fit into the 'Historical Elliot Wave Count.' In short, what this Count implies is nothing less than astonishing: Essentially Bitcoin has just completed a decade long, (Running Triple Three) Wave 2 Correction and is now in an extremely powerful Wave 3 that should take the price to over 10 Million $ per coin, with the bulk of this appreciation (if not all) occurring within the next 5-10 years. See my published chart (which preceded the series) to view what the massive, Wave 2 Correction looks like when zoomed out, as well as a bit of the rationale that supports this Count: Snapshot Published Chart Also, for more context as to what this series is all about, have a look at parts 1 and 2: The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.1 The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.2 To date, the historical chart can be seperated into six Segments, I will be continuing to dedicate a post (a part of the series) to each of them. The term Segment should be taken loosely to mean a Section of the market data eligible for Classification as a Wave to be included in a larger Count. In this post, Segment 3 will be the focus. Again, I will continue to build upon the theme of speaking from a Direct perspective (analyzing one piece of the puzzle under a microscope), yet also gradually bridge the gap with an InDirect perspective (how the pieces of the puzzle all fit together, and how such necessarily informs the conclusions about any given piece). With the above in mind, consider that the start of every Segment or Wave is the end of another, thus why I thought it would be valuable to include a brief revisiting of Segment 2. Before jumping into Segment 3, I will again include a small taste of the flavor of the times. Title for this Segment: "Venture Capital continues to flood into Bitcoin, Wall Street takes note" In Post 2, we spoke about the fall of Mt. Gox, and whispers of the 'Tech guys' dipping their toes in the water amidst Bitcoins first ever prolonged bear market (before the 2013 rise it was a highly illiquid market). Throughout this bear market, government-confiscated Silk Road coins were continually auctioned off, serving to dampen all attempts at a trend-changing rally. It was amidst this backdrop that Bitcoin found its' first 'buyer of last resort' in Tim Draper, in this sense, he was basically the Michael Saylor of the times. Without batting an eye, Draper, again and again, packed the trunk with three digit coins, instilling a confidence in the space the new, immature market had never seen. Not only did this buying have a very real effect on the supply-demand dynamic of an asset that aims to be the future of money, but it also influenced others in the shadows to begin to publicly speak out not just about their own positions but more importantly, their intentions to support the space with the Capital it would need to grow into the powerhouse it has now become. Draper (in addition to Andreesan, Hickey, Pantera, and a few others), was the first domino to fall: Segment 3 was characterized by all the rest following suit, piling into the space continuing to build out the Wallet, Exchange, and Merchant-Proccessing infrastructure. Similarly, Barry Silbert continued to bet big on Bitcoin offering the first 'legitimate' investment vehicle, a work-around of sorts that allowed money to flow in (which otherwise could not have using 'shady' overseas exchanges), forcing Wall Street to at least acknowledge the nascent asset. Ultimately, the CME would mark the top of the rise offering the first ever Bitcoin Futures market. There were also another two topics dominating the 'flavor of the times' that bares mentioning: The Bitcoin Fork Wars Ethereum Mania. In the beginning of Segment 3, all attention was on what would be the culmination of a raging debate amongst the Bitcoin community: The block size debate. As the price began to rise from the ongoing influx of money mentioned earlier, uncertainty around how the block size debate would be resolved (or rather which approach, or combination of approaches, would win out, and how) loomed and served as the cold water to be poured on every potential acceleration of the new bull market. In the essence of staying on track with this post, I will condense the sequence of events to this brief summary: The decision by Bitmain to hard fork the Bitcoin Protocol resulting in a distinct coin Bitcoin Cash, the failure of an 'industry led' attempt to force a block size increase into the adoption of Segregated Witness ('SegWit2X'), and the adoption of Segregated Witness by Litecoin (as well as the threat of a 'User Activated Soft Fork') all contributed to any uncertainty the market migh have had about this ongoing debate being removed, thus leading to the 2017 blow off top. Alongside all of this, Ethereum had become a household name, enabling and encouraging huge speculation to enter the market. Most of this speculation came from retail investors, who were intoxicated by the marketing of a more exotic Bitcoin, but this version had a 'boy genius' figurehead, providing a founder they could worship like the Tech Companies they were familiar with investing in. Prompted by the sound financial advice of CNBC and others (sarcasm), the crowd followed into Ethereum, ICOs, Ripple, and others setting the stage for the eventual popping of the bubble. Of course, there was much more happening at the time, but hopefully the above should suffice in giving at least a feel for what occurred during this Segment. Now, let's get to the meat and potatos and dig into some charts. Segments 1 and 2 required many snapshots to cover, alternatively, going forward my analysis will likely be more consice as the stage has, for the most part, been set. I was able to condense both the Time and Wave Type analysis of Segment 3 into one main Chart Snapshot (which should also be the image in the published chart), this represents the complete picture of Segment 3 analyzed *from a Direct perspective*, it is the last snapshot. The first few snapshots help provide some preliminary techniques that help inform how both Segments 2 and 3 were counted, and how they each fit together and fit within the larger Historical Count. Chart Snapshots (see below for a short description and/or any relevant notes): -'Where' to begin Segment 3. The ability to discern 'where' a Segment begins and ends is one of the most overlooked requisite skills needed to master the Elliot Wave Principle. Similar to determing 'Where to begin your Count' in Part 1, getting this right is crucial, it establishes what will help serve as the foundation for your analysis. -Where the price data connects 'Cleanly' (incorrect approach to determining the beginning of Segment 3). -'Exposed Points' Duration, Degree, Structure, and Type in and of the Segments. -Snapshot of the Published Chart.

Live stream - Scalping with the Stochastic Oscillator: A Simple Join us for an interactive webinar with FX Evolution as they take you through all you need to know about scalping with the Stochastic Oscillator

Education

44:17

Trading like a Pro with Heikin Ashi I am a big fan of Heikin Ashi (HA) candles! I think they are among the most powerful candles one can use. If I were asked to trade a raw chart without any indicators or math or anything like that, I could do it with a Heikin Ashi chart. If you follow me, you will probably have seen a lot of my tutorials and education on the use of Heikin Ashi candles, as well as some strategies I have developed using Heikin Ashi. I wanted to take the time to give a crash course, in writing, on the key concepts of using HA to trade that can be quickly applied and implemented. So let’s get into it, we will start with the foundations and then get into the advanced stuff. Basics: Identifying Trend Starts and Stops Before doing anything else, you need to be able to identify trend starts and stops. With HA candles, it is super easy. What you need to look for is 2 consecutive flat bottom or flat top candles on whichever timeframe you are utilizing. Let’s look at some examples of the start of bullish trends on the 1 hour, using NQ1!: In the chart above, you can see the start of various bullish and bearish trends on the 1 hour. Once you have identified the start of the trends, you can then use these candles to draw support and resistance levels. When drawing support and resistance levels, start from the first, flat top or flat bottom candle, like so: If we do this on various trends on NQ on the 1 hour, we can start to see how these act as key support/resistance levels: PRO TIP! When drawing support and resistance, avoid redundant support and resistance levels. You will notice in the chart above, The resistance level at 1528, the support level at 15303 and the resistance level at 1534 somewhat overlap (this is good, this tells you the HA is working properly to identify areas of trend starts/stops). We can simplify this by 2 ways. Way #1 is by removing the redundancies and just leaving 1 area: Way #2 is my preferred way and simply involves drawing a support box or “zone”: This also works well on the daily timeframe as well: And again, we can simplify this by drawing boxes on the closer proximity lines as such: Identifying Trend Reversals The one thing that is great about HA candles, is I personally find them much easier to: a) Identify impending trend reversals and b) Identify the likely pull-back range of the trend reversal. How do we do that? Well, we need to pay attention to the wicks on the HA candles. Let me show you some examples of some wicks along with the terms I have assigned to them and what they mean: #1 Stagnation Stagnation occurs when wicks are equal height. In general, you should not see a wick that wicks higher or lower than the stagnation. Below is an example and explanation of stagnation: The chart above shows you an example of stagnation. To clarify, I will show you examples that do not fit the stagnation definition: What does Stagnation mean? Stagnation means that we will see some slight pullback, but generally not below the previous low that lead to the stagnation. In the chart with the example, you can see I labelled the first low as “A”. This will be your reference range. Its simply identifying the lowest low that was made prior to the stagnation pattern forming. Stagnation generally means we will not go below that low (if bearish). If it is a bullish pattern, it means that we will pullback, but it will not go to the previous low (start of the uptrend). Here is an example of a bullish stagnation pattern: Stagnation is generally a BULLISH indication. #2 Bearish Ascending Wicks Bearish ascending wicks, as displayed in the example above, are very telling. Perfect ones are hard to come by, but if you are lucky enough to find one, it does tell you what you can expect quite reliably! The defining characteristics of bearish ascending wicks are a cluster of 3, bullish candles with each proceeding wick proportionately higher than the previous: What do Bearish Ascending Wicks mean? Well, as the name suggests, this is a bearish reversal. Why they are bearish is because these wicks are telling us that the ticker is about go lower than the start of the current uptrend. We already know how to identify the start of uptrends and downtrends. So we need to look for the start of the current uptrend that lead to these bearish wicks forming. In this case, it is here: What the bearish ascending wicks are telling us, is that we can expect to move to and below the start of this uptrend. We can see that this was indeed the case: Let us look at another example: This one is a bit messier, but I wanted to show that it does work, even when the setup is not the most pretty. And let’s take a look at one more: It works really well, but like I said, they are tough to find! #3 Bullish Descending Wicks Bullish descending wicks are the exact opposite of the bearish ascending wicks. You have 3, consecutive descending wicks of declining size. These signify a likely continuation to the upside after some pullback. How high? Higher than the highest wick. So in the above example, we would draw a trendline from the highest wick as reference: And let us find another example: These patterns also repeat on the bottom wicks, too, but they are inverted. So let us cover those next. #3 Bearish Descending wicks: Bearish descending wicks are the inverted bullish descending wicks that we find on the top of uptrends. We find bearish descending wicks at the bottom of downtrends. These signal a continuation down. How low? Lower than the lowest of the three wicks: Let’s look at another example: Then, we have the other inverse: #4 Bullish Ascending Wicks These signal a bullish reversal and a higher high than the start of the previous downtrend. How do we find the high to reference? We need to find where the most recent downtrend started. So take a look at the chart above and see if you can identify where the trend started. Then, check below where I will give the answer: You would also be correct to say that the trend started here: We can simply simplify this by drawing a box: Let’s look at one more example: Here is a tiny one: PRO TIP: Here is a special case. In the case below, we are in an uptrend already and the bullish ascending wicks simply signal a trend continuation. In this case, for reference, you can draw a trendline from the peak of the highest wick leading up to the ascending wicks: Concluding remarks And that concludes today’s lesson on using HA candles to trade! This provides you with some fundamentals of how to use them to identify support and resistance, as well as identify trend changes. Now, its important to remember, these trend change identification strategies don’t work 100% of the time. Sometimes they fail. But they work frequently enough, especially on the indices, that I do rely on them quite a lot. At the end of the day, no method is perfect, but I find the HA approach to be one of the more rigorous approaches to support and resistance plotting and trend identification. Remember, these rules apply to all timeframes, including the smaller timeframes, so you can use these strategies and rules on the smaller timeframes. I personally use them on the 5 minute frequently. I will link some of my other HA based tutorials below. Otherwise, I hope you learned something and leave your comments/questions below and suggestions below! Safe trades!

Education

by Steversteves

Updated

🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains. Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction. One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market. SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market. The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities. The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002. SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002 Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations. "Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter). The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action. Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!? Time will show!

Updated

Harnessing Gains from Yield Curve Normalisation Not too long ago, watching interest rates was as boring as looking at wet paint dry. Not anymore. Interest rates and currencies are as interesting as they get. The US dollar has been clocking moves more akin to an EM currency. The greenback has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past three months in line with market expectations of Fed’s interest rate policy path. This paper is set in three parts. First, the background to rising rates and spiking yields leads to a brutal bond sell off. Then, the paper evaluates the case for further Fed rate hikes. In the third and final part, it dwells into factors that support a rate pause. It is not just the rates but also the term structure of rates that’s gone off-the-chart. This paper posits a hypothetical spread trade inspired by the divergence in 30Y and 10Y treasuries with an entry at 13 bps and a target at 40 bps hedged by a stop at 5 bps delivering a reward-to-risk of 1.5x. RISING RATES AND SPIKING YIELDS Fed’s commitment to taming inflation with a higher-for-longer stance leads to a surging dollar. Spiking bond yields help reign in inflation through tightening monetary conditions. The US 10Y Treasury Bond Yields surged to their highest level since 2007, by 20% or 0.8 percentage points since July 17th. Chart 1: US 10Y and US 2Y Treasury Yields Yield and Bond prices are inversely related. Surging yields have hammered bond prices lower resulting in a staggering record sell-off. Leveraged funds hold a record net short positioning in US 2-year and 10-year Treasury Futures. Chart 2: Record Net Short Positioning by Leverage Funds This brutal selloff has pushed yields to their highest levels in more than 15 years. Among others, portfolio managers and traders can position themselves one of the two ways: Risk Hedged Yield Harvesting: Harvest risk hedged treasury yield using cash treasury positions and Treasury futures to generate income over a long horizon, or, Gain from Yield Curve Normalisation: Deploy CME Micro Treasury Futures to engineer a spread trade to realise gains from a normalising yield curve. In a previous paper , Mint Finance illustrated the first. Distinctly, this paper covers spread trade using CME Micro Treasury Futures. THE CASE FOR HIKING The September FOMC meeting re-affirmed a higher-for-longer rate regime. Though there was no rate hike, the updated Fed’s dot plot signalled very different expectations for the rates ahead. The dot plot was updated to show a final rate hike in 2023 and fewer rate cuts in 2024. Chart 3: Contrasting US Fed’s Dot Plot between 14/June versus 20/September ( Federal Reserve ) The Fed has adequate grounds to crank up rates even more as highlighted in a previous paper . These include (a) American exceptionalism where the US Economy has been remarkably resilient, (b) Expensive Oil due to geopolitics & receding base level effects, and (c) Brutal Lessons from past on the folly of premature easing. THE CASE FOR PAUSE Factors described above have led markets to price another rate hike at Fed meetings later this year. Those views have started to tilt further towards a pause since the start of October as per CME FedWatch tool. Chart 4: Target Rate Probabilities For 13/Dec Fed Meeting ( CME FedWatch Tool ) Bond yields have surged, helping the Fed with their fight against inflation. Yields on US Treasuries surged to their highest since 2007. As yields are inversely proportional to bond prices, this is the equivalent of a major selloff in the bond market. Three reasons behind the selloff: 1. Steepening Yield Curve: Yields are finally catching up to market rates, especially for long-term treasuries; yield curve is steepening Chart 5: Yield Curve is Steepening 2. Rising Sovereign Risk Premia: The US national debt passed USD 33 trillion and is set to reach USD 52 trillion within the next 10 years. Investors are demanding higher risk premia as compensation for default risk by a heavy borrower. Chart 6: US Debt to GDP Ratio 3. Higher Yield to Compensate for Scorching Inflation: Investors are demanding higher real rates amid a high-inflation environment. Chart 7: Real Yields are marginally above zero Bond yields seem to be peaking. Solita Marcelli of UBS Global Wealth Management opines that the recent upward momentum in yields has been spurred largely by technical factors and is likely to be reversed given the overhang of uncertainty over underlying forces guiding the Treasury market. Higher bond yields support a case for a Fed pause. This is because rising treasury yields do part of the Fed’s job. Higher treasury yields tighten financial conditions in addition to being a drag on the economy. The Fed officials shared similar sentiments over the past week: San Francisco Fed President Daly noted the moves in markets “could be equivalent to another rate hike”. The Atlanta Fed chief opined that he doesn’t see the need for any more rate hikes. The Dallas Fed President remarked that such a surge in bond markets may mean less need for additional rate increases. The Fed has made it amply clear many times that it is data dependent. The data about the economy is positive. And that is concerning. Jobs data last week, and a sticky CPI print raise concerns that the Fed’s hand might be forced to hike despite US inflation being low among G7. Chart 8: US Inflation is among the lowest within G7s HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Are we witnessing peak rates? In anticipation of the peak, investors can use CME Micro Treasury Futures to harness gains in a margin efficient manner. Micro Treasury Futures are intuitive as they are quoted in yields and are fully cash settled. They are settled daily to BrokerTec US Treasury benchmarks for price integrity and consistency. As highlighted in a previous paper , each basis point change in yield represents a USD 10 change in notional value across all tenors, making spread trading seamless. Setting up a position on yield inversion between 2Y and 10Y Treasuries is exposed to significant downside risks from near-term rate uncertainty. Instead, a prudent alternative is for investors to establish a spread with a short position in 10Y rates and a long position in 30Y rates. The 30Y treasury rates demand a higher term premium due to their longer maturity. Presently, this premium is just 0.15%. In the past, this premium has reached as high as 1% during periods of monetary policy shifts with yield curve steepening. Chart 9: US Treasury Inverted Spreads Furthermore, downside on this spread is limited as the 30Y-10Y premium scarcely falls below 0% unlike the 10Y-2Y premium which has been in deep inversion for the past year. A long position in 30Y Treasury and a short position in 10Y Treasury with: Entry: 0.130 (13 basis points) Target: 0.4 (40 basis points) Stop Loss: -0.05 (5 basis points) Profit at Target: USD 270 (27 basis points x USD 10) Loss at Stop: USD 180 (18 basis points x USD 10) Reward to Risk: 1.5x Chart 10: Hypothetical Spread (Long 30Y & Short 10Y) Trade Set Up MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.

Long

by mintdotfinance

Understanding the Role of HFTs and Dark Pools for Day Trading NASDAQ:TSLA reports on Wednesday of this week, October 18th. Last quarter, it had a gap down on its earnings news based on Year over Year comparisons which triggered High Frequency Trading (HFTs) to gap the stock down. Quarter over Quarter, however, NASDAQ:TSLA has shown consistent growth this year. The problem with determining if the HFT gaps are likely to gap down or up on the next earnings report is the very low Percentage of Shares Held by Giant Buy-Side Institutions (PSHI). TSLA’s CEO has lost the necessary confidence of the largest Buy-Side Institutions in the world. So it's institutional interest is extremely low for such an important US company. The Buy-Side Institutions want the Board of Directors to replace Musk with someone who is more focused on TSLA to help it grow. The PSHI is likely to remain low until a new CEO is chosen. The highest the PSHI has ever been was in July 2020 when it reached a high of 71%. It dropped to a low of 43% in November of 2021 and the stock has been sideways with very low PSHI ever since. It is very rare to see such low PSHI in a young new technology company with such high growth potential. With less support from largest most influential institutions, the HFTs, which use retail news as one of their 6 primary algorithm triggers for automated orders as Maker/Takers, often gap a stock down on earnings news that was actually not negative. Smaller Fund Managers, who have a special SEC classification with lower reporting requirements, often have VWAP automated orders trigger on high volume surges. This is often mistaken by smaller funds and retail investors or traders as “Dark Pool high volume activity,” when it is not. High PSHI creates a natural liquidity draw and thus more momentum and speculative price action. This is missing much of the time for NASDAQ:TSLA stock price movement. The current sideways trend has existed since 2021, best seen on a Weekly Chart. The dimensions of the sideways trend and the irregularity of the price range determines whether the sideways trend is a Long Term Wide Trading Range, a Short Term Trading Range, a Wide Sideways Trend, or a Platform-Building Sideways Trend. This is a Long Term Trading Range due to the inconsistent highs and lows. This is common in a stock that has PSHI below 60%. On a Daily Chart, the fundamentals currently are within the rectangular shape outlined below. This area of price can be problematic for retail day traders as there are always portfolio adjustments going on by the Buy-Side Institutions who have ETFs and Index funds with TSLA as a component. When the stock drops below that Buy Zone range, it quickly reverses and runs up into the lows of that fundamental range. This becomes a price range where there is conflict between retail day traders trying to trade on news and the Buy-Side Institutions accumulating inventory shares of TSLA for the Indexes or ETF Trust accounts that must maintain a value close to the ETF or index value upon which that ETF is based. What happens intraday is a very choppy and indecisive price action up and down that causes whipsaw losses for day trading. In order to successfully day-trade TSLA, these factors must be understood to use to one's advantage. This requires an understanding of how to identify a Dark Pool Sell Zone or a Dark Pool Buy Zone within the daily charts. It also requires an understanding of how HFTs trigger and how VWAP orders often cause whipsaw action as well. Remember that Dark Pool data is not available during the trading day. That data is on Over-the-Counter Alternative Transaction Systems. Those orders are filled off the exchanges and are not transmitted to the National Clearing Houses until after the market closes. Hence, ALL retail day traders are trading against an invisible entity whose orders they can’t see even on Level 2 screens. The art of day trading in harmony with Dark Pool activity requires what I call "Relational Technical Analysis."

by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader

False Bitcoin rumors revealing real market sentiment Fake news sent Bitcoin up about 10% on Monday, surging from $27,900 to over $30,000 after Crypto news site Cointelegraph posted on X that the Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF application. In response to the rumor, BlackRock had to clarify that no decision had been made regarding their ETF application. Even though the rumor has now been debunked, Bitcoin is still up more than 5%, at $28,600, with some movement suggesting that buyers are still willing to prob for more gains. The 10% upside move has perhaps provided us with a preview of what might happen when/ if the SEC eventually approves or rejects BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF application. It could also be argued that we are also getting a glimpse into what could happen if the SEC rejects the application, with targets set at the pre-rumor price of $27,900 the first port of call.

by BlackBull_Markets

Live stream - 10/15/2023 pm - Stocks & Crypto TA - Trading & Inv 10/15/2023, 03:30PM EST Livestream. Stocks, Crypto, Indexes, Commodities, Forex, TA Charts, Requests. Technical Analysis & Educational Charts livestream. All content is Not financial advice.

Education

01:12:39

by NoFomoCharts

A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentiment We look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below

Long

Live stream - Weekly Close Livestream 10-13-2023 Is Bitcoin the answer to the inflation of the US Dollar? CPI came out this week unchanged and is still higher than the Fed would like it to be.

01:09:31

TradingView Masterclass: How To Use Drawing Tools We continue with our Masterclass series, which we created to teach people how to get started with charting, research, and analysis. In this lesson, you’ll learn all about the Drawing Panel located on the left side of your chart. Let’s get started! Drawing tools 🎨 There are eight categories in the drawing tool section: Cursors, Trend line tools, Fibonacci tools, Patterns, Forecasting and measurement tools, Geometric shapes, Annotation tools, and Icons. In addition, just below these categories, there are handy features that augment and optimize your research in specific situations, such as zooming in/out, measuring, and a magnet tool for selecting specific price points. Let’s analyze each of these in detail: - Cursors: Located at the very top corner of the drawing tool section, Cursors gives you the capability to change your mouse as you move around the chart. For example, we have other variations such as the dot cursor or the simplest of all, the arrow cursor. Finally, we have an eraser tool to remove objects from the chart by clicking on them. - Trend lines: Trend lines can be used to identify and visualize the direction of a price trend, and are sometimes used for drawing support or resistance lines as well. In this section, you can also find trend channels and pitchforks. - Gann and Fibonacci tools: These advanced tools are often used by technical analysts and quants to locate retracements, pullbacks, measured moves, and advanced price sequences. The Fibonacci tools include retracement, extension, fans, arcs, and more. The Gann tools include box, square, and fan. - Patterns: In this section, you’ll find popular drawing tools for mapping our complex patterns that require several different points to be drawn such as Elliott waves, head and shoulders, and impulses. - Forecasting and measurement tools: These invaluable tools are used to make projections either long or short, study specific stats such as time or price ranges, and also give you the capability to analyze volume with VWAP and volume profiles. - Geometric shapes: These tools are where you can find the brush tool to freely draw on your chart, but it also goes deeper than that, as there are also important shapes whereby a trader can highlight important areas on the chart with a rectangle or arrow such as accumulation or historical rebound zones. - Annotation tools: These can be used to write notes, reminders, prices, and journal entries. These are key tools for traders who want to track their progress over time and always have specific notes attached to the chart. It also includes the ability to insert X links and images from your computer. - Icons: Need a little more color or character on your chart? This section gives you hundreds of emojis, icons, and stickers to add to your chart. Highlight an area, add more art to your chart or spice up your creativity. Tip: Keyboard shortcuts 🔠 Did you know that you can use keyboard shortcuts for the most popular drawing tools? To find out the command, you need to open the drop-down menu of one of the 8 drawing tool categories and you will see the command on the right side of some tools. For example: Alt + T = Trendline Alt + F = Fib retracement Alt + H = Horizontal line Alt + V = Vertical line Alt + I = Invert chart Alt + W = Add current symbol to watchlist If you're a Mac user, use ⌥ instead of Alt. Measure and zoom 📏🔎 When you use the Measure tool (the ruler icon just below the 8 drawing tool category icons), you can see at a glance how much an asset has fallen or risen in numbers, percentages, bars and days. Combined with the Zoom tool (the magnifying glass with +/- icons), you can also focus on the most important areas of the chart. For both measuring and zooming, the procedure is the same: select the tool, click on the point where you want to start measuring or from where you want to zoom, and end with another click where you want to end. You can also use the "Shift" hotkey instead of the icon. To remove a measurement, simply click on the chart. Magnet mode 🧲 Magnet mode is a wizard that helps you to bring the drawing tools closer to the nearest price bars that you hover over with the mouse. There are 2 modes: Weak magnet and Strong magnet. This tool allows traders to perfectly connect a drawing tool to a specific price point. The current values are OHLC, meaning when Magnet mode is turned on, all drawing tools will connect to the nearest open, high, low or close value. Want to draw support lines that always connect to a specific price? Use this tool. Stay in drawing mode 🎨 If you are going to make several drawings on the chart at the same time, you may find it useful to activate this option (pencil + padlock icon), as it will allow you to make as many drawings as you want without deactivating the selected drawing tool. Remember that you must deactivate this option to return to normal mode. Lock all drawing tools 🛑 Once the chart has been configured, if you do not want to make any further changes, you can lock everything that has been drawn with this option (padlock icon) so that you do not accidentally delete elements in the future. Hide/Show drawings/indicators/positions & orders 👁‍🗨 This option allows you to toggle the visibility of the drawings, indicators, positions & orders or even all three to make comparisons with a blank chart. The keyboard shortcut is "Ctrl + Alt + H". Drawing sync 🔄 This allows you to synchronize the drawings of the selected charts in the current layout or in all layouts (globally). You’ll surely want to test this feature as it’s perfect for those who perform multi-timeframe technical analysis and research across multiple charts or timeframes. For example, when this tool is turned on, if you draw on one chart, all of your drawings will appear on your other charts that have the same symbol. Delete objects 🗑 With a single click, you can delete all drawings or indicators, or even both at the same time. There are also a few other options to remove specific things on your chart. Use this tool wisely and don’t accidentally delete everything! Show favorite drawing tools toolbar ⭐ To set up the favorites toolbar, first, you must first go to one of the eight drawing categories and click on the gray star in one of the tools. When you click on it, it turns orange and the quick access toolbar for drawing tools is created. Once you have selected all your favorites, move the favorites toolbar around so that you can use it conveniently every time you want to draw something on the charts. That’s a wrap! We hope you found this guide valuable. We'd love to hear about your favorite drawing tool, so please share your thoughts in the comments below. Additionally, if you have any feedback or suggestions, drop us a line. - TradingView Team

Education

Bitcoin Q3 Overview Key Takeaways: - Poor quarter over quarter price performance at -11.5%, but BTC it still outperforming most asset classes including gold, treasuries, commodities, cash, and REITs year to date - US bid that drove Bitcoin up in H1 has fully diminished at the time of writing - Volume, liquidity, volatility, and search trends all continue to decline - Grayscale’s discount to NAV has closed from -48% to -16% throughout the year - Percentage of Bitcoin held by long term holders has reached an all time high of over 76% - Bitcoin native valuation still shows BTC is in lower bounds of value - Active addresses slightly up while transfer volume (entity-adjusted) continues to decline Following a strong H1 price performance for Bitcoin, Q3 showed to be lackluster for BTC, down 11.5% quarter over quarter. However, in this great chart from NYDIG, we can see that throughout 2023 YTD Bitcoin has quietly outperformed most major asset classes including large cap growth, mid and small cap growth, US and European stocks, commodities, treasuries, gold, cash, emerging markets, and REITs. One of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of the year was the Bitcoin ETF applications that were filed by several well-known traditional financial institutions including Blackrock and Fidelity. These filings were followed with a strong bid for BTC during US trading hours. As shown below, this US trading hour premium that was quite noticeable in March, has since fully diminished. This is also reflected by Bitcoin’s CME futures open interest declining, which is primarily traded by traditional hedge funds, family offices, etc. Open interest refers to the number of futures contracts outstanding. Other measures of excitement in the Bitcoin market have also shown a decline, including Bitcoin’s trading volume across spot and futures, Bitcoin’s 3-month futures basis (difference between spot and 3 month futures contracts), and can even be reflected by measures as basic as google search trends. It is safe to say that the Bitcoin market is in a period of deep apathy. One positive trend that we’ve seen throughout the year is the GBTC discount to net asset value closing in, reflecting increased sentiment around Grayscale’s likelihood of being able to convert their current closed end trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Throughout 2023 the GBTC discount has closed in from -48% to just -16%. In terms of valuation, one of the metrics that we follow most closely is the MVRV ratio. This compares Bitcoin’s current marginal trading price to its realized price, which is the cost basis of the entire network based on on-chain data. The idea of the methodology is that whenever MVRV is high, market participants are sitting with a large amount of unrealized profit and are incentivized to realize some of that profit, while when going negative means that the market in aggregate is underwater by definition. While the market is no longer in deep undervalued territory as it was at the end of last year, it is still far from overheated levels reached during the peak of 2017 and 2021. Whether Bitcoin’s cyclicality is driven by halvings, macro forces, general behavior dynamics, or a combination of all three is up for debate; but when comparing this current cycle’s performance from its lows relative to Bitcoin’s three prior cycles, things appear to be playing out quite similarly from a time perspective. Meanwhile, flipping over to network activity, we can see that the percentage of Bitcoin’s supply held by long term holders has reached an all time high at over 76%. This means that more than 3 out of every 4 BTC it held by long term holders. For reference, long term holders are defined as on-chain entities that have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, a threshold where on-chain data scientists have found the likelihood of coins being spent drops off the most significantly. This reflects the deep belief of Bitcoin’s core holder base despite crypto market wide contagion and macro uncertainty, as well as the rise of custody products. When plotting out the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long term holders relative to short term holders, we can see the impulses that shape Bitcoin’s multi-year market cycles, as savvy investors accumulate throughout the bear market and distribute into the bull. Another positive trend underneath the hood is the amount of Bitcoin held by on-chain entities with less than 10 Bitcoin, which not only trends up and to the right throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, has seen a large rise over the trailing year, with this quarter being no different. This is a positive trend that we’d like to see continue for the sake of Bitcoin’s supply distribution. This quarter Bitcoin’s block height breached 800,000, a milestone reflecting that the decentralized network has continued to function as intended for well over a decade. Bitcoin's hash rate has also set new all time highs this quarter, but with the halving on the horizon, increased competition may spell troubles for miners without competitive energy costs. Active addresses saw a jump from 950,000 to just over 1,000,000 throughout Q3. Meanwhile, the 7 day moving average of Glassnode’s entity-adjusted transfer volume continues to slump, down to just over $3.1 billion settled by the Bitcoin network a day. Although still down from its July highs, Bitcoin’s public lightning network capacity jumped in Bitcoin terms throughout the last few weeks, currently sitting at 5,200 BTC. It is worth noting that this is just public lightning network capacity, and true figures may look different. The USD denominated version of lightning network capacity offers a less favorable look, down to $140 million from its late 2021 peak of $215 million. For the full report including all charts, click here . Disclaimer: This research report is exactly that — a research report. It is not intended to serve as financial advice, nor should you blindly assume that any of the information is accurate without confirming through your own research. Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other digital assets are incredibly risky and nothing in this report should be considered an endorsement to buy or sell any asset. Never invest more than you are willing to lose and understand the risk that you are taking. Do your own research. All information in this report is for educational purposes only and should not be the basis for any investment decisions that you make.

Education

by ReflexivityResearch

How to Trade the Gap & Go Welcome to the final instalment of our 7-part Power Patterns series where we aim to give you the skills to trade powerful price patterns which occur on any timeframe in every market. Last but by no means least is the Gap & Go pattern. Price gaps epitomise power and the Gap & Go is must for any active trading looking to take advantage in a spike in volatility. We’ll teach you: How to identify the best Gap & Go patterns Why the catalyst behind the pattern is crucial A simple technique for managing a Gap & Go trade I. Understanding the Gap & Go: The Gap and Go pattern revolves around a simple concept: market shocks take time to fully price in. A price gap occurs when a stock "gaps" higher or lower from its previous closing price when the market opens. The price gap represents a shock and in certain circumstances traders can anticipate a continuation of price movement in the direction of the price gap. Here are the key components of the Gap & Go trade setup: Identify the gap: The first step is to identify stocks that exhibit a noticeable price gap between the previous day's closing price and the current day's opening price. This gap can be either bullish (a gap up) or bearish (a gap down). Breaking structure: The price gap should break above or below a level of resistance (or support). Gaps that break key structural levels are likely to draw in a higher level of participation. High volume: The price gap should occur on higher-than-average volume. Higher volume indicates increased participation and suggests that a significant number of market participants are actively reacting to the news or event that caused the gap. Bullish Gap & Go: Bearish Gap & Go: II. Know the catalyst behind the gap: Stock prices can gap higher or lower for a multitude of reasons and some of the reasons make better trading catalysts than others. As a general rule, you want the gap to form on a piece of stock-specific newsflow that has recalibrated market expectations. Remember, central to the pattern working is that the shock which caused the gap must take time to price in – hence mechanical events such as dividends and corporate actions are of no use, so too are confirmed bids. The best catalysts for Gap & Go trades will be earnings surprises (good or bad), and a change in outlook (good or bad). In general, trading updates tend to lead to more surprises that Interim and Annual Reports, as they occur within reporting periods. Good catalysts: Trading update Interim results (change of outlook) Annual results (change of outlook) Bid rumour Broker upgrade / downgrade Bad catalysts: Ex dividend Corporate actions Global news event Confirmed bid Top Tip: For the stocks you like to trade, make sure you add a calendar alert for when the company releases Trading Updates and Interim/Annual Reports. This may help you to anticipate price gaps. III. How to Trade the Gap & Go: Whilst the Gap & Go pattern can be traded in many different ways and on many different timeframes. We favour getting to grips with this pattern on the hourly candle chart first. On this timeframe gaps will be clear, levels of risk can be kept relatively small, and trades can play out across one or two trading days. Here’s how to start trading the Gap & Go on the hourly candle chart: Entry : Wait for prices to stabilise following the opening rotations. The gap should be maintained after the first hour of trading and there should be no signs of exhaustion. Enter during the second hour of trading. Stop-loss placement : Traders can either place a stop above (or below) the 9 period exponential moving average (EMA) or use a multiple of the Average True Range (ATR) above (or below) the entry price. Price targets : The expectation for the Gap & Go trade setup is to catch a clean swing of price movement in the direction of the gap. For this reason, the 9EMA is a useful tool as a dynamic profit target – traders should close their position on a close back above (or below) the 9EMA. This method does not cap upside in fast moving markets but ensure discipline and allows traders to attempt to capture the ‘meat of the move’. Bullish Gap & Go Trade Setup: Bearish Gap & Go Trade Setup: IV. Managing risks and pitfalls: Be wary of opening reversals: It is important that prices stabilise and maintain the gap before entering a Gap & Go trade. On occasions, prices will gap lower only to reverse sharply during the first hour of trading. The stronger your understanding of the subtle nuances of trading around the open, the better you will be at trading the Gap & Go pattern. Risk management: The Gap & Go pattern by definition is trading during an expansion in volatility. Therefore, it is essential that traders implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing and diversifying your trading portfolio. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

The ULTIMATE Supports and Resistances For BTC (in theory)In this video we talk about the bitcoin Production cost lines and hash rate to potentially determine the ULTIMATE supports and resistances. Areas in which I'll be looking to find longs and shorts after structure breaks.

06:35

by Hamilton_Gilpin

When You Should NOT Trade! 11 Reasons to Take a Step Back You have two choices each day you open your trading platform. To trade or not to trade. There are circumstances that will rise where you won’t trade for that day. Then there are times where you should NOT trade at all. And then there are situations where you need to avoid trading. You know when to trade. Now here are a couple of 11 reasons to take a step back with trading. After a bunch of knocks After you take a couple of losses, it might feel natural to want to jump right back in. You don’t want to lose. You want to recoup your losses. You want to ride the prominent trend. You have to learn to resist this temptation. Whether you buy or sell, if the market is in a bad state or environment – you’re likely to lose your positions. So take a step back and come back tomorrow. The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies I’ve told you many times. Any occurrence where you are NOT following your proven strategy is deadly. Revenge and impulse trading (to try and make up for any losses) is a dangerous path. Not only for the day. But it scars and sets a precedent for you to do it in the future. In the medium term, it’s a surefire way to harm your portfolio. Learn to recognize and control these tendencies. Rather take a step back and come back, the next day, with a more rational and logical approach. The absence of clear setups If you don’t have any high probability trades that have lined up, forget trying to take a trade. This is like sailing with a destination in mind without a compass. Trades will come. The markets will always be there for you tomorrow. So wait them out… Emotional instability Emotions when trading are a dangerous trait to have. Anxiety, excitement, ego, fear, greed or distress can cloud your judgment. If you’re emotionally unstable, you need to take a step back and learn to control your emotions. Drop your risk, ‘till you no longer feel a loser or winner. Continue backtesting until you regain your confidence. Refrain from trading until you learn to balance your emotions. Can’t afford it – forget it! If the funds you’re using for trading are essential for your survival or well-being, this is a red flag. You are going to be highly dependent and emotionally attached to your funds. I say it over and over… Do not trade with money you can’t afford to lose. It creates an unhealthy pressure that can influence your trading decisions. Don’t know it – Don’t trade it. If you lack a solid understanding of markets, methods or money management – you’re not ready to trade. You need to understand the above along with the market dynamics, the costs and process of instruments and how your trading and charting platform works. Education is key here. Learn, learn, learn. When you have less questions and more answers, then it might be a better time to take the trade. Low probability setups When the market is moving nowhere slowly. Or the markets are moving wildly with high volatility – this might be a time to not trade. The risk and uncertainty of the market is high. And this will result in only low probability trade setups lining up. If you really want to trade them, because you have nothing better to do – fine. But at least risk LESS. Risk between 0.5% to 1% of your portfolio instead of the full 2%. When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable Physical well-being also plays an important role. Your mental state affects your trading performance. If you’re not in the right mindset, consider taking a break. Avoid trading if you’re not feeling well, exhausted, angry, or you’re feeling unstable. Get your mind right, recover and see the markets with healthier and happier eyes. That made sense to me :/ No clear setup Sometimes, you might analyse the markets. And you’ll see nothing. Then, you’ll re-analyse and look EXTRA carefully. You’ll look and look and look until, somehow a trade presents itself. I’m telling you now, this is a dangerous time to take the trade. A trade should stick out like a sore thumb (according to your strategy). If it doesn’t, then you’re trying to see something that most likely is NOT There. Trade based on sound, proven and strong analyses, not via imagination and hope. During major economic announcements This point is more related and significant to Forex traders. If you see a high impact economic announcement, report, meeting etc… It might be a good idea to take a step back, and skip trading for the day. I’m talking about NFP, Unemployment, GDP, FOMC, Interest and Inflation rates etc… Without a trading plan A well-crafted trading plan is your roadmap. It’s your game-plan to make a probability prediction on a potential outcome. You need to eat, breath, shower and sleep with your trading strategy. If you don’t have one, don’t trade until you develop a plan and are ready to stick to it. Right so, now you now when to take a step back and NOT trade. I’ll sum them up here for you… After a bunch of knocks The peril of revenge and impulse trading tendencies The absence of clear setups Emotional instability Can’t afford it – forget it! Don’t know it – Don’t trade it. Low probability setups When exhausted, ill or mentally unstable No clear setup During major economic announcements Without a trading plan

Education

Markets embrace the Higher-for-Longer theme It has been a big week of central bank policy announcements. While central banks in the US, UK, Switzerland, and Japan left key policy rates unchanged, the trajectory ahead remains vastly different. These central bank announcements were accompanied by a significant upward breakout in bond yields. Interestingly most of the increase in yields has been driven by higher real yields rather than breakeven inflation signifying a tightening of conditions. The bond markets appear to be acknowledging that until recession hits, yields are likely to keep rising. Connecting the dots The current stance of monetary policy continues to remain restrictive. The Fed’s dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate at 5.6%. The dot plot of rate projections shows policymakers (12 of the 19 policymakers) still foresee one more rate hike this year. Furthermore, the 2024 and 2025 rate projections notched up by 50Bps, a signal the Fed expects rates to stay higher for longer. The key surprise was the upgrade in growth and unemployment projections beyond 2023, suggesting a more optimistic outlook on the economy. The Fed’s caution is justified amidst the prevailing headwinds – higher oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, the United Auto Workers strike, and a potential government shutdown. Quantitative tightening continues on autopilot, with the Fed continuing to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Risk assets such as equities, credit struggled this week as US yields continued to grind higher. The correction in risk assets remains supportive for the US dollar. A hawkish pause by the Bank of England In sharp contrast to the US, economic data has weakened across the board in the UK, with the exception of wage growth. The weakness in labour markets is likely to feed through into lower wages as discussed here. After 14 straights rate hikes, the weaker economic backdrop in the UK coupled with falling inflation influenced the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to keep rates on hold at 5.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was keen to stress that interest rates are likely to stay at current levels for an extended period and only if there was evidence of persistent inflation pressures would further tightening in policy be required. By the next meeting in November, we expect economic conditions to move in the MPC’s favour and wage growth to have eased materially. As inflation declines, the rise in real interest rates is likely to drag the economy lower without the MPC having to raise interest rates further. That said, the MPC is unlikely to start cutting rates until this time next year and even then, we only expect to see a gradual decline in rates. Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance Having just tweaked Yield Curve Control (YCC) at its prior Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 28 July, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its ultra easy monetary settings unchanged. The BOJ expects inflation to decelerate and said core inflation has been around 3% owing to pass-through price increases. Governor Ueda confirmed that only if inflation accompanied by the wages goal was in sight would the BOJ consider an end to YCC and a rate shift. With its loose monetary policy, the BOJ has been an outlier among major central banks like the Fed, ECB and BOE which have all been hiking interest rates. That policy divergence has been a key driver of the yen’s weakness. While headline inflation in Japan has been declining, core inflation has remained persistently higher. The BOJ meeting confirmed that there is still some time before the BOJ exits from negative interest rate policy which is likely to keep the Yen under pressure. The developments in US Monetary Policy feeding into a stronger US dollar are also likely to exert further downside pressure on the Yen. This year global investors have taken note that Japanese stocks are benefitting from the weaker Yen, relatively cheaper valuations and a long-waited return of inflation. Japanese companies are also becoming more receptive to corporate reform and shareholder engagement. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Taking a hedged exposure to dividend paying Japanese equities would be a prudent approach amidst the weaker yen. This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

by aneekaguptaWTE

Gasoline futures portend pleasure at the pump Among my favorite charts this time of year is that of RBOB gasoline futures. Often as Halloween approaches, wholesale gasoline costs start coming down significantly from highs in the summer. Call it a nice treat for commuters and families around the country. As it stands, the prompt-month of RBOB is now under $2.20 - that's a fresh 10-month low should we close here. RBOB at $2.18 means that retail pump prices should continue their recent trend lower, eventually finding the $3.20 mark if the historical premium of about $0.95 holds. It's key to remember that the price difference between the futures and the retail cost of a gallon of regular unleaded depends on a host of factors - taxes, transport costs, refiner margins, and refinery outages being among them. I see a bit more downside ahead on the chart. Consider that, according to seasonal data from Equity Clock, RBOB tends to move lower from mid-October through early December. That could mean gas prices under $3 in terms of a national retail average by, say, Christmas. Keep your eye on the low from last December - $2.05. Another layer of possible dip-buyers could come into play near $1.95. On the upside, I see resistance near $2.45 - the range lows from this past May and June.

Short

by mikezaccardi

BUILDING A CHART "BRICK BY BRICK"What is it Renko? Renko charts were invented in Japan, just like regular candlesticks, many years ago and they are called Renga, which means "brick". They display charts symmetrically and are effective for identifying major trends and structural support and resistance levels. Renko charts are very well suited for trend trading as they are visually appealing, making it easy to screen out noise and highlight trends easily. Renko charts show a trend in a way that bars and candlesticks charts cannot. They are able to filter out the noise and create the sameness underlying the trend. In order to understand what a Renko is, let's remember what candlesticks show on our charts? They are the fluctuations in the price of a particular currency pair over a certain period of time: price and time. The main difference is that Renko charts show only the change in price, neither trading volumes nor time intervals are taken into account in their development. The principle of building Renko bricks is based, as already mentioned, only on price fluctuations. In order for the chart to be displayed correctly, first of all, it is necessary to set the size of one brick. For example, many traders use a simple rule: 1 brick equals 10 pips. In other words, for a new brick/block to appear on the chart, the price must change by at least 10 points. Candlestick chart: Renko bars: This is the feature of the Renko chart: it is extremely smooth and clear. All blocks have the same size. At the same time, if the price has changed by only a few points, it will not be displayed on the chart. There are two types of brick size assignment methods: traditional and ATR-based. It measures the volatility of the asset, i.e. the values will be different at different periods of the trading period and on different time intervals. If you use this method, the value of the Renko bar should be equal to the ATR value. Main Advantages and Disadvantages Like any other graphical display of price changes, Renko has its pros and cons. Advantages of Renko: • This principle of construction allows to eliminate almost all noise from the chart as mentioned above. • Renko shows itself perfectly in work with most indicators. Let's remember the main problem of some popular indicators - they output data with some delay (information is substituted into the formula only after the candle is closed). And since Renko is not tied to time, the indicator displays more real information as a result. • Renko indicators show themselves perfectly in intraday trading. The trader does not need to wait for the candle to close. The Main Disadvantages of Renko are as Follows: • The chart does not work with most volume indicators. • A new brick is built only when the trend increases/decreases by a certain number of points (which is equal to the size of one block). That is, the chart can remain unchanged for a long time if the market is consolidating. • Renko chart does not show consolidation and impulse moves as seen on regular charts. • In order to be aware of the likely measurement of trend direction, it is necessary to constantly monitor the market with other charts. Examples We will use a simple strategy based on the moving average with a period of 20 on the 15 minute timeframe. The sell and buy signal will be pinbar. Enter the trade when the pinbar is created near the moving average. Of course you can create your own strategy. You just need to spend some time with the chart and you will know if it will work for you or not. EURAUD USDJPY GBPUSD (Sometimes Renko chart gives really beautiful and clear signals.) Conclusion Renko charts are quite convenient and practical because they display symmetrical candles and are effective for identifying major trends, support and resistance levels by filtering out noise. They can also be used in combination with other indicators to improve trading results. Renko charts allow you to identify various reversal patterns and see price structures in the market. However, they are mainly suitable for intraday trading.

Education

The US Super Bubble Theory Credit for this perspective goes to u/RS3175. They shared their log Elliot waves with me and I found it so interesting I had to chart it up for myself. They've done better labelling of the wave than I have. I'll post their pic at the bottom of the page. Firstly, what are we looking at? A logarithmic chart covering all of the SPX trading history with the entire thing fitting inside the context of the Elliott Wave Theory. Unless you really like Elliot, I'm sure you're beyond sceptical but let me tell you a few things of note about Elliot. Elliot lost his job in the depression and started to study markets trying to work out why. This was how he devised his theory. The rally up to the high and the depression crash is a literal textbook example of the Elliot Wave. Even if you don't think Elliot Waves work - Elliot based his wave theory on this move. This IS the original Elliot Wave. What Elliot noticed was that this shape occurred over and over again on small timeframes and built up to a huge version on a bigger timeframe. Like Russian Dolls, but in reverse. Elliot published his theory in the 40s and died soon after. Elliot would be dead before the the depression high was broken. In his 1940s book Elliot referred to the depression as a typically ABC correction. Implicate to this statement is a forecast of a new bull market and that bull market developing in five main waves before then entering into a bigger correction. And that was a very good forecast of what would happen over the next 25 years. So Elliot deserves some credit. There would not have been many people who made forecasts of new highs and trending through them in 1940. Elliot deserves a lot of credit, to be honest. Because here was the next moves. Paul Tudor Jones famously shorted this 1987 crash and there are documentaries from 1985-1986 in which Jones and his team are using a mixture of Elliot Wave theory and matching up moves of last decade relative to the 1920s. They were running a computer program tracking correlation, finding it incredible high and betting on it. Jones was long the rally and short the drop - And it's documented a year before the crash trade that he was using Elliot for his forecast of it. If you look up Jones forecasts at the time he was actually completely wrong. He thought it was heading into a depression. There'd be the first break and then there'd be the 1930s style downtrend. They thought this because the correlation of price moves in their time relative to 1987 were so high (I can't remember specifically but I think it was over 80%). I think this lends a lot of credibility to Elliot's work. Not only would his 1940's book forecast these types of 5 leg bubble moves and then sharp corrections but it was also famously used in real time to trade the rally and crash of the 1980s. If you do not think Elliot Wave works, is has! On a big scale, it has worked so far. Elliot's implied forecasts happened. When DJI was $100 Elliot was hardly going to call DJI to $33,000 but if he'd taken the perspective that the Depression was wave 2 - what he would have forecast would be an extremely accurate forecast of what went on to happen in markets for decade after decade to come. One would have to think if Elliot was with us today, he might well be a bear. Here's @RS3175's chart: www.tradingview.com The implied swings of this would match up with my Elliot bear waves forecast of 2021 (Even though we've took very different routes there).

Short

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