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Crude Oil is Unchanged since 1985Adjusted for inflation as measured by FRED:CPIAUCSL , the price of crude oil hasn't changed since the price peak in 1985. The back and forth oscillations in supply and demand over the decades has left us right where we started back when I was in college 38 years ago! The price of a first class stamp in 1985 was 13 cents and is now 66 cents. So, the price of a stamp is up 5-fold but the nominal price of crude oil was $31/barrel back in 1985 and is just over $90 now for a 3-fold increase. So when you hear over and over in the general media that "crude oil is up" and devastating the economy, you can rest assured that "we have been here before". Yes, prices aren't as low as they were when we had Covid-Crash prices of $25/barrel but at least we don't have $140+ that we had back in 2008 prior to the deleveraging crash called the GFC.
TVC:USOIL
by timwest
48
Nvidia Hasn’t Done This Since JanuaryNvidia is on pace for its worst month in a year, but some dip buyers may see opportunity in the semiconductor giant. The first pattern on today’s chart is the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). NVDA has been holding that line since Thursday, one session after the Federal Reserve hammered the stock under $410. It was the first test of the SMA since early January, when the shares were under $150. Is the long-term trend still intact? Second, the current price range is near the lows of late June and mid-August. Intermediate-term support may remain in effect. Third, a falling trendline marks the decline that began in early September. But NVDA made a lower low on Monday and a higher high. That kind of bullish outside day may suggest that short-term slide is nearing an end. Finally, stochastics are trying to rebound from an oversold condition. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradeStation
11
How to Head and ShouldersGreetings, Financial Enthusiasts! 🌟 If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜 The Head and Shoulders pattern is a well-known chart formation in technical analysis. It indicates a reversal from a bullish to a bearish trend, usually at the end of an upward trend. Key Points: - Head and Shoulders: Chart pattern signaling trend reversal. - Formation: Three peaks on a baseline - two lower outer peaks and a higher middle peak. - Bullish to Bearish: Suggests a shift from an upward trend to a downward one. - Applicability: Seen on all timeframes, suitable for various traders and investors. - Entry Levels: Easily identifiable, aiding in trade implementation. Why It Matters: The Head and Shoulders pattern provides traders with a visual representation of a trend reversal. It's widely used due to its simplicity and applicability across different timeframes. The Pattern: - Formation (Market Tops): 1. Left Shoulder: Price rises, forms a peak, then falls. 2. Head: Price rises again, forming a higher peak. 3. Right Shoulder: Price falls again, then rises but forms a lower peak than the head. - Formation (Market Bottoms): 1. Left Shoulder: Price falls, forms a trough, then rises. 2. Head: Price falls again, forming a lower trough. 3. Right Shoulder: Price rises again, then falls, forming a higher trough than the head. Neckline: - For Market Tops: Connect the low after the left shoulder to the low following the head to create the neckline. - For Market Bottoms: Connect the high after the left shoulder to the high after the head to form the neckline. Trading the Pattern: - Wait for the pattern to complete before trading. - Entry when price breaks below the neckline (tops) or above it (bottoms). - Stops placed above the right shoulder (tops) or below it (bottoms). - Profit targets calculated based on the head-to-shoulder difference and added (bottoms) or subtracted (tops) from the breakout level. Why It Works: - Sellers enter as price falls from its peak, reducing aggressive buying. - The neckline marks a point where traders exit positions, driving price toward the target. - A lower right shoulder (tops) or higher right shoulder (bottoms) signals a trend shift. - Profit target assumes forced exits by those in losing positions. - The neckline prompts many traders to exit, pushing price towards the target. - Volume analysis helps confirm patterns; expanding volume (bottoms) shows increased buying interest. Pitfalls: - Waiting for pattern completion may require patience. - Not all patterns lead to successful trades. - Profit targets aren't always reached. - External events can disrupt patterns. - Patterns can be subjective; traders should define their criteria. The Head and Shoulders pattern, though not foolproof, provides a structured approach to identify and act on trend reversals.
Education
by Vestinda
21
Introduction to Relative Strength or Ratio 1-1This is part one of a series on relative strength ratios. Part One: Relative Strength Ratio (RS) analysis is used to compare one markets performance with that of another. The RS line provides a direct comparison of strength or weakness relative to the another. RS analysis is particularly useful for active institutional managers who are judged relative to a benchmark as opposed to individual investors who are constrained by producing an absolute return. But understanding ratios opens a world of spread or pairs trading and provides valuable insight into the market environment. To be clear, the relative strength ratio has nothing to do with Welles Wilders Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI is a momentum oscillator designed to evaluate a single security as opposed to a ratio comparing one security to another. Using ratio analysis, bonds can be compared to equities, commodities to bonds, domestic equities to global equities, gold to copper, country to country, currency to currency, industry sector to industry sector, specific companies or sectors to broader indices, country to country and even individual equities. Choices of pairs are extensive. Importantly, once charted, the RS line can be analyzed as any other security. Support and resistance, channels, and momentum indicators can all be applied to the RS line. With literally thousands of securities to be compared the limits of RS analysis is only limited by the imagination of the analyst. The analyst does need to be careful. There needs to be a clear and intuitive economic linkage between the two securities before setting up ratio charts. There can also be issues when two securities, despite having a clear linkage, have a dynamic third variable such as currency translation or large differences in duration such as the LQD/HYG example that we will cover in future parts. Relative Strength is calculated by dividing one security's price by a second security's price (the "base" security). The result of this division is the ratio, or relationship, between the two securities. When the RS line is rising, the numerator (top) security is outperforming the denominator (bottom) security. When the numerator security is falling, the numerator is underperforming the denominator security. If the RS is moving laterally, there is no performance advantage to either the numerator or denominator. When looking at spreads I mostly prefer to use the ratio rather than the net price difference between two markets. Using ratios allows the analyst to make comparisons between markets priced in different units. For instance, Oil and Gold or cotton and the CRB. One exception to this would be when directly comparing one ratio to another ratio. In this case both ratios need to be normalized to a common starting value (I use 100) to adjust for large differences in numerators that could skew the RS line higher or lower relative to the RS line. I find ratios most useful over longer time perspectives for business and economic insight. However, many traders/investors use them in shorter time perspectives as they create spread trades or aggressively switch between sectors. When I was actively trading bond/note futures I used extremes and technical analysis of the RS line on the hourly chart to help manage my curve trades. In this series we will explore the construction of relative strength ratios, their best use, and make technical evaluations of several ratios and what that analysis implies. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:XLPEducation
by CMT_Association
7
S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
Rising and Falling Wedges ExplainedWelcome to the world of trading patterns. If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜 Today, we'll explore two important ones: the Rising Wedge and the Falling Wedge . These patterns can signal shifts in market trends. Let's dive in and see how they work. Rising Wedge: In an uptrend, the Rising Wedge hints at a bearish turn. It takes shape as prices find a middle ground between two upward-sloping lines, one as support and the other as resistance, both inching closer. As the price inches towards the wedge's tip, its upward push tends to fade, suggesting a potential shift to a downward trend. Your sell signal triggers with a bearish break beneath the wedge's support. Set a stop loss just above the wedge's highs. Aim for the next significant support level. Falling Wedge: Unlike the Rising Wedge, the falling wedge spells optimism in a downtrend. It emerges as prices consolidate between two downward-sloping lines, one providing support and the other resistance, both drawing nearer. As prices approach the wedge's apex, the downward momentum loses steam, hinting at a potential shift towards an upward trend. Your buy signal activates with a bullish breakout beyond the wedge's resistance. Place a stop loss just below the wedge's lows. Target the next notable resistance. Feel free to let us know your thoughts and if you have any questions. Your feedback is valuable and helps us improve. Happy trading!
Education
by Vestinda
21
HOW-TO evaluate volatility quality?The Volatility Quality Index (VQI) is an indicator used to measure the quality of market volatility. Volatility refers to the extent of price changes in the market. VQI helps traders assess market stability and risk levels by analyzing price volatility. This introduction may be a bit abstract, so let me help you understand it with a comparative metaphor if you're not immersed in various technical indicators. Imagine you are playing a jump rope game, and you notice that sometimes the rope moves fast and other times it moves slowly. This is volatility, which describes the speed of the rope. VQI is like an instrument specifically designed to measure rope speed. It observes the movement of the rope and provides a numerical value indicating how fast or slow it is moving. This value can help you determine both the stability of the rope and your difficulty level in jumping over it. With this information, you know when to start jumping and when to wait while skipping rope. In trading, VQI works similarly. It observes market price volatility and provides a numerical value indicating market stability and risk levels for traders. If VQI has a high value, it means there is significant market volatility with relatively higher risks involved. Conversely, if VQI has a low value, it indicates lower market volatility with relatively lower risks involved as well. The calculation involves dividing the range by values obtained from calculating Average True Range (ATR) multiplied by a factor/multiple. The purpose of VQI is to assist traders in evaluating the quality of market volatility so they can develop better trading strategies accordingly. Therefore, VQI helps traders understand the quality of market volatility for better strategy formulation and risk management—just like adjusting your jumping style based on rope speed during jump-rope games; traders can adjust their trading decisions based on VQI values. The calculation of VQI indicator depends on given period length and multiple factors: Period length is used to calculate Average True Range (ATR), while the multiple factor adjusts the range of volatility. By dividing the range by values and multiplying it with a multiple, VQI numerical value can be obtained. VQI indicator is typically presented in the form of a histogram on price charts. Higher VQI values indicate better quality of market volatility, while lower values suggest poorer quality of volatility. Traders can use VQI values to assess the strength and reliability of market volatility, enabling them to make wiser trading decisions. It should be noted that VQI is just an auxiliary indicator; traders should consider other technical indicators and market conditions comprehensively when making decisions. Additionally, parameter settings for VQI can also be adjusted and optimized based on individual trading preferences and market characteristics.
by blackcat1402
18
British Pound Plunges as Bank of England Holds Interest RatesI bring today is far from uplifting. As you may already be aware, the British Pound (GBP) has taken a significant hit in the wake of the recent decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to hold interest rates steady. This unforeseen turn of events has left many traders like yourself feeling disheartened and uncertain about the future of GBP. The BoE's decision to maintain interest rates has sent shockwaves throughout the financial markets, triggering a substantial decline in the value of the British Pound. This unfortunate turn of events has left the currency vulnerable and exposed to further downside risks. While it is indeed disheartening to witness such a decline, it is crucial for us to adapt and seize opportunities even in the face of adversity. Given the current state of affairs, I would like to encourage you to consider taking advantage of the situation by exploring short positions on GBP. The downward trajectory of the British Pound may present an opportunity for you to potentially profit from this unfortunate turn of events. However, please remember that trading involves risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough analysis and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. In times like these, it is crucial for traders like yourself to stay informed and adapt to the ever-changing market conditions. Monitoring economic indicators, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments will be key in navigating the turbulent waters of the foreign exchange market. If you require any further information or assistance regarding shorting GBP or any other trading-related queries, please don't hesitate to comment below. We are here to support you and provide you with the necessary guidance to make informed trading decisions during these challenging times. Remember, even in the face of adversity, the trading world remains full of opportunities. By staying informed, adapting your strategies, and seeking professional advice, you can navigate these uncertain waters and potentially turn this unfortunate situation to your advantage.
TVC:BXYShort
by bryandowningqln
15
What is FOMO? Syndrome of lost profit in tradingFOMO is the lost profit syndrome. Now it is especially common due to the popularity of smartphones and social networks. Many are simultaneously afraid of social isolation and worried about lost opportunities. A similar situation is possible in trading. As soon as traders see a bullish trend, they start opening trades and buying those assets that match their analysis. In addition, a lot of information, thoughts and impressions are concentrated around us, which only aggravates the situation. Let's figure out how to deal with such an obsessive fear. The syndrome of lost benefit is a strong fear of missing an important event or a profitable opportunity. This fear is especially pronounced against the background of the bright life of friends and acquaintances. After all, then there is a feeling that you are wasting time in vain. SUVs are directly related to dissatisfaction with personal life, and social networks only increase the unpleasant state. The greater the dissatisfaction, the greater the desire to find others. And the need for new information turns into intrusive thoughts. FOMO is distinguished by the following features: -Frequent fear of missing something important; -Constant use of language turns like "everything but me"; -The desire to delve into all forms of social communication (attend all the parties, go to concerts, etc.); -Obsessive desire to always be liked by others, accept praise and be available for communication; -The need to constantly update the feed on Facebook, Instagram and other social networks. How to get rid of lost profit syndrome? -Constantly responding to messages and checking the crypto rate every 2 minutes, you waste a lot of time. Therefore, you should establish clear rules for using a PC and a smartphone: -remove unnecessary programs and turn off pop-up messages in programs that are not of great importance; -leave groups and unsubscribe from accounts that are not useful to you; -refuse unnecessary e-mails; -check news and stock quotes no more than twice a day (for example, in the morning and in the evening); -do not take your smartphone to bed and do not sit on the Internet before falling asleep; make two separate schedules - for working with personal and business messages. Five tips — how to avoid the FOMO syndrome as an investor Instead of succumbing to the fear of missing out, you can change your life for the better and find success in the cryptocurrency field. Here are our 5 tips on how to avoid FOMO affecting your investing. 1. Forget about the past What has already happened in the market is irrelevant from FOMO's point of view. There are not many investors who look at past quotes. Successful investors always take the time to analyze when opening a trade: they look at the current state of assets and assess their prospects in the future based on past price charts. The idea that the chance can be one for a lifetime is completely false. There are always and always will be profitable opportunities, just as the market always was and always will be. Charts will never tell you what an asset will be like in a year, two or five years. They simply provide information about events and possible future probabilities. Therefore, competent long-term investors understand that it is never too late to buy assets, it is important to navigate them and make balanced decisions. 2. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone else is buying There is an opinion that on the stock exchange it is necessary to go against the trend. Of course, it is easy to talk about it, but to translate all this into reality is much more difficult. After all, the effect of the lost profit syndrome only increases when you do not invest in an asset that is growing. The "anti-cyclical" behavior is explained as follows: the most successful purchases with possible high returns occur during a fall in the rate and general panic, and sales - during a rise in value, when everyone is eager to buy bitcoin or another crypto as soon as possible. However, this tactic does not at all mean a ban on buying tokens in an uptrend. It is inextricably linked to the next tip, so it should be taken in the same context. 3. Set clear goals Remember the chosen strategy and determine the goals when buying this or that cryptocurrency. One possible option is target cost. If the stock price has reached your indicator, feel free to sell the asset and lock in the profit, or set a stop loss, with the hope that the trend will continue. Many traders use a simple rule - it is better to receive 4 thousand dollars 10 times than to wait six months for 50 pieces. If the deal in a short period of time brings 50% profit or more, it is better to close it. And this should become a proven mechanism. Usually, when the value of a cryptocurrency starts to increase rapidly, many market participants buy it. You can understand this in time and, having sold the asset, watch the further growth that is already taking place by inertia. The growth will stop only when the rest finally realizes that the coin is "overheated" and no longer has the potential for growth. Conclusion: While most buy the coin on the rise due to FOMO, you sell the crypto and get your profit. As for purchases at a reduced price, not everything is so smooth either. After all, not everything will be so profitable that it has become cheaper. Here it is necessary to look at the reasons for the price drop on the chart. If unforeseen circumstances have occurred, for example, a lawsuit by the state regulator in court, then you need to determine what value of the asset will become the most attractive for you in the current period, or how critical the situation with the lawsuit is. Of course, I mentioned isolated cases here. In order to analyze all possible situations in the market, you need to publish an entire online almanac. Each case has a common feature — the psychology of human behavior. Therefore, do not give in to general panic or joy. 4. If there are no investment ideas, wait The famous stock speculator and Wall Street investor Jesse Livermore used to say the following: "Big money doesn't buy or sell, big money waits"! It is true, because one day you will not be able to find more interesting coins to invest. There will be very few of them, and the crypto market will continue to conquer new heights. 5. Your strategy is the main thing If you managed to accumulate knowledge in some area of trading, learned SmartMoney analysis, know how to set goals and evaluate the potential of a particular token, it will bear fruit, but continue to develop further, because there are no limits to perfection! :) New trading tools, technologies and new tokens appear every day that promise to bring significant profits and make cryptocurrency trading as convenient as possible. Do not follow the tricks of speculators. Become the best in your field. Keep a clear mind and don't be influenced by the masses. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Crypto4light
8
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important? Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market. We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost. Common ways to size positions are: Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital. It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio. Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin. This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss. Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position. It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size. However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method. Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position. This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time. This could lead to two situations for the first trade: - The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500 - The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500. When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter. If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning: a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750 b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125 On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too: a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250 b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375 Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is: a) First trade lost: $1125 b) First trade won: $3375 This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way. Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy. What is the Kelly Criterion? The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions. This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade. The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components: Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable. Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab. The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour. Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows: Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R Where: Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade W = Winning Probability Factor R = Win/Loss Ratio This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size. Let’s see an example of this formula. Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965. Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9% Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries. Caution disclaimer Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation. Source about information on Kelly Criterion www.investopedia.com
Education
by sofex
4
How to Trade The Break & RetestWelcome to our Power Patterns series in which we teach you how to trade some of the most powerful price patterns which occur on any timeframe in every market. In this week's instalment, we delve into the Break & Retest pattern—a strategic approach to navigating breakout trades. If you've wrestled with the frustration of false breakouts, incorporating this pattern into your trading toolkit may help you overcome this challenge and put you on the path to becoming a more confident and consistent trader. We’ll teach you: How to identify and anticipate the pattern The underlying reasons that make the Break & Retest pattern such a valuable asset Three simple rules that can significantly enhance the pattern's effectiveness I. Understanding the Break & Retest: In essence, the Break & Retest pattern involves entering the market during the initial pullback following a breakout. The pattern employs a three-step approach to validate the breakout signal. It relies on a fundamental tenet of price action trading: when resistance is effectively breached, it tends to transition into a supportive platform for the development of uptrends, while conversely, when a support level is convincingly broken, it typically transforms into resistance within markets trending lower. Let’s run through the three steps in detail: 1. The breakout: This is the initial movement where the price breaches a significant support or resistance level. It's essential to look for signs of genuine momentum and increased trading volume during this phase to validate the breakout. 2. The retest: Following the breakout, the price retraces back to the level it previously broke through. 3. The reversal: This is price action confirmation that broken resistance has turned into support (in the case of a bullish breakout) or broken support has turned into resistance if the (in the case of a bearish breakout). The confirmation comes in the form of a reversal candle. Typical reversal candles are long-tailed hammer or pin-bar candles, but they can also be engulfing candles or multi-candle reversal patterns. The bullish Break & Retest: The bearish Break & Retest: II. How to trade the break and retest: Identifying and anticipating : The crucial first step in trading the Break & Retest pattern is to identify significant support and resistance areas on the price chart. Once these levels are recognised, traders should anticipate the pattern's development. Utilising price alerts can prove highly beneficial in this process, as they notify traders when the market is breaking out from these key levels. Additionally, setting alerts for the market's retest of the broken support or resistance level is equally valuable. Entry points : Central to entering this pattern is the reversal formation observed during the retest of the broken support or resistance zone. An entry order may be strategically placed just above the high of the reversal candle (see bullish scenario) or below the low of the reversal candle (see bearish scenario). Stop-loss placement : For risk management, positioning a stop loss is imperative. In a bullish scenario, a stop can be placed at a level below both the low of the reversal pattern and below the broken resistance level. Price targets : Traders have the choice of setting a price target relative to market structure (the next key level or support or resistance) or a price target relative to risk. A price target twice the size of your risk is reasonable if you’re trading in-line with the dominant trend. Bullish scenario: Bearish scenario: III. Why the Break & Retest pattern is so useful Breakouts from key levels tend to be fast and volatile, making for a high-stress trading environment. The Break & Retest pattern is so useful because it really helps to take the stress out of trading breakouts. It provides traders with a structured approach for confirming the authenticity of breakout signals while simultaneously reducing the associated risks of false breakouts. It's important to acknowledge that not all breakouts will result in a pullback and retest of the breakout zone. However, over a large data set, traders who are patient enough to sit on their hands and wait for the first pullback will be less likely to be caught out by fakeouts and better positioned to manage their risk. IV. Three simple rules to increase the patterns effectiveness: Rule 1:The trend is your friend It’s an old trading cliché, but when it comes to trading the Break & Retest pattern, the trend really is your friend. This is because the Break & Retest pattern fundamentally functions as a pullback pattern, and pullbacks tend to exhibit greater success within well-established trends. Rule 2:The pullback should have less momentum than the breakout The thrust of the breakout move should be steeper and have more momentum and volume than the pullback phase. A pullback that is just as steep as the breakout phase would be indicative of a failed breakout. Rule 3:The retest should not linger Optimal Break & Retest setups exhibit a resumption of breakout momentum shortly after the retest.. We do not want to see the market linger near the broken resistance (or support) level. V. Managing risks and pitfalls: Risk Management: Implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing, checking the economic calendar, and diversifying your trading portfolio. This helps protect against unexpected market movements and potential losses. Additional Analysis: Don't rely solely on the Break & Retest pattern for trading decisions. Supplement your analysis with fundamental factors and market sentiment to gain a comprehensive view of the market. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Education
by Capitalcom
33
Hawkish Fed! Strong Dollar! - What are the markets expecting?he Fed has kept interest rates steady as expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell's statements were much more hawkish than anticipated. In summary, 12 out of 19 Fed members are calling for one more interest rate hike this year. No interest rate cuts are expected this year. Inflation is expected to remain high over the next 12 months. Tightening and balance sheet reduction will continue. An increase in unemployment is expected for 2024. Even if there's no interest rate hike this month, there could be one more increase later in the year. Key takeaways from the monetary policy meeting minutes and Powell's remarks: The year-end interest rate expectation for 2023 has been raised to 5.6%, and the expected rate for 2024, initially at 4.6%, has been increased to 5.1%. Additionally, the expectation for 2025, previously at 3.4%, has been raised to 3.9%. Long-term interest rates will remain high, with the long-term rate expectation at 2.5%. Unemployment expectations: 3.8% for 2023 4.1% for 2024 There is a bias towards an increase in unemployment. Core inflation expectations: 3.7% for 2023 2.6% for 2024 2.3% for 2025 2.0% for 2026 Expectations suggest a gradual decline rather than a rapid one. With the release of the monetary policy minutes, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields have risen to 5.1%, which is particularly negative news for stocks and gold. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Gold: Initially, gold may continue to rise to the range of 1,960-1,963 as an immediate response. However, the continued high-interest environment will exert downward pressure on gold, and we may see a decline to around 1,880 levels after reaching 1,960. U.S. Stock Indices: Given the high-interest rates and high inflation, we shouldn't expect significant gains in the stock market. Currently, it's prudent to view every increase as a selling opportunity. USD: The strengthening of the dollar is expected to persist, especially against currencies of countries signaling relaxation in their monetary policies. The dollar is likely to maintain its strength for some time. EUR: The European Central Bank (ECB) took a dovish stance in its recent interest rate decision, reducing the possibility of further rate hikes. Although there has been a slight decrease in Eurozone inflation data, we may see a chart indicating USD dominance and a downward trend in the EUR/USD pair. JPY: Japan remains the only country with negative interest rates (-0.10%) and a commitment to a loose monetary policy, suggesting that the depreciation of the yen will continue. GBP: The Bank of England (BoE) decision and statements tomorrow will be crucial for the pound. However, our expectation is that tomorrow's announcements will resemble the Fed's hawkish stance, leading to some strengthening of the GBP. We will publish a new analysis after tomorrow's meeting to provide an update on the pound's situation. Oil: Today's U.S. crude oil inventory data came in below expectations, indicating that OPEC's production cuts are still in effect. We expect oil prices to reach $100 due to ongoing production cuts, which will negatively impact both stock markets and inflation for some time.
by TradeAndMeApp
25
How To Improve Your Win RateHey guys! Today, we're discussing 3 concrete strategies that you can use to improve your win rate with your trading strategy. This includes: 1.) How to improve your underlying decision making (trade with the trend, take advantage of levels, and understand the fundamentals driving supply and demand). 2.) How to adjust your exit strategy to improve your win rate, trading psychology, and (potentially) expected value. 3.) How to reframe the markets using probabilities and options. Leveraging the law of large numbers can allow you to hit what you're aiming for, including a high win rate with many different option structures. Questions? Hit us up in the comments. Looking for more high-probability trade ideas? Follow us below. ⬇️⬇️
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by PropNotes
18
The Power of Support Lines: A Bullish Trend on the Horizon?Introduction: In technical analysis, support lines play a crucial role in identifying potential trends and predicting future market movements. When multiple levels of support converge at higher levels, it can indicate a strong bullish trend. In this article, we will explore such a scenario and discuss how it could impact the overall direction of the market. The Case Study: Let's consider an example where the support lines for the weekly, daily, and hourly charts all intersect at a higher level. This convergence suggests that there may be a strong upward pressure pushing prices towards new highs. However, before jumping into conclusions, let's analyze each chart individually to gain a better understanding of the situation. Weekly Chart ]Analysis: On the weekly chart, the support line has been consistently above the price range, indicating a solid base of support. As long as this level remains intact, the bulls have control over the market. Moreover, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering around the mid-50s, which indicates a neutral market condition. Daily Chart Analysis: Moving down to the daily chart, we notice that the support line is also above the price range, confirming our initial observation from the weekly chart. Additionally, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing a bullish divergence, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Hourly Chart Analysis: Finally, let's examine the hourly chart. Here, we see that the support line is once again above the price range, reinforcing the idea of a solid base of support. Furthermore, the Stochastic Oscillator is reading near its oversold territory, signaling a potential bottom. Conclusion: While the intersection of these three support lines at higher levels is certainly intriguing, it's essential to remember that no single piece of evidence can guarantee a specific outcome. Other factors like economic indicators, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment must also be taken into account when making trading decisions. However, if we combine the findings from all three charts with other relevant data points, we might infer that the market is poised for a potential bullish move. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust our strategies accordingly based on further developments. Ultimately, the key to successful trading lies in staying adaptable and open to changing circumstances.
NSE:STYRENIX
by stocktechbot
7
How To Sync Charts Within A Multi-Chart LayoutAre you interested in looking at multiple charts at once without the need of adding more monitors? Well in this video I'm going to show you how to do so here on Tradingview along with some tips on how you can sync the charts & make life a lot easier for you when it comes to watching multiple markets at once and/or backtesting. Please leave any questions or comments below & make sure to HIT THAT BOOST BUTTON before you head out. Akil
Education
by Akil_Stokes
10
Unveiling Crypto Market Insights: RSIHello, market enthusiasts! In previous post , we described a group of technical indicators - Oscillators, providing a solid foundation for today's discussion on RSI. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Calculating RSI: RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes RSI = 100 - (100/(1+RS)) Interpreting RSI: RSI is plotted on a vertical scale of 0 to 100. Movements below 30 are considered oversold, and movements above 70 are considered overbought. In trending markets, it is common to adjust the conditions to 80 and 20, respectively. In the book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets," John J. Murphy describes the scenarios where RSI holds the greatest potential. "In my personal experience with the RSI oscillator, its greatest value lies in identifying failure swings or divergences that occur when the RSI is above 70 or below 30. Let's clarify another crucial point regarding the use of oscillators. In any strong trend, either up or down, an extreme oscillator reading typically appears sooner or later. In such cases, claims that a market is overbought or oversold are usually premature and can lead to an early exit from a profitable trend. In strong uptrends, overbought markets can remain overbought for an extended period. Just because the oscillator has moved into the upper region is not a sufficient reason to liquidate a long position (or, even worse, short into a strong uptrend)." Failure Swings: Failure swings can help us identify trading triggers. These occur when the RSI is above 70 or below 30. A top failure swing happens when the RSI (above 70) fails to exceed the previous peak in an uptrend, followed by a downside break of the previous trough. The opposite applies to a bottom failure swing. Now, let's shift our focus to the BTC/USD chart: Today, we are analyzing the price movements of BTC/USD on a 4-hour timeframe. The range marked with the blue lines represents last week's trading range. The current RSI value is approximately 75 (indicating overbought conditions), and the price has just broken the previous week's range high. Given the current price action, we should be vigilant for potential setups: If the price remains above the previous week's high and the RSI remains in the overbought area, we could watch for: a. A robust trend in which both price and RSI continue to ascend. b. The potential setup of a "top failure swing," which would occur if the price rises further, but the RSI fails to surpass the previous peak in an uptrend, followed by a downside break of the previous trough. Signaling to exhaustion of the trend. If the breakout turns out to be a false breakout or a fake-out : c. A retracement to the range low with the RSI in the oversold area. d. A breakout below the range low and a bottom failure swing. e. Sideways price action in the previous week's range. f. other For the purposes of this post, we've highlighted some of the setups we discussed theoretically in today's post. Keep in mind that each of these setups takes time to unfold. Additionally, note that in trending markets, claims that a market is overbought or oversold are typically premature and can result in an early exit from a profitable trend. Please let us know which option you find most likely. Additionally, share which method of using RSI has proven to be the most effective in your trading strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bitstamp
7
The predictable Jerome Powell..!Jerome Powell is likely to say the following in the upcoming conference on Wednesday, September 20th: * The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. * The Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates until inflation is under control. * The Fed is aware of the risks of a recession, but it believes that these risks are outweighed by the risks of high inflation. * The Fed is monitoring economic data closely and will adjust its monetary policy as needed. Powell may also discuss the following topics: * The Fed's plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet. * The impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy. * The Fed's outlook for the US economy. "We expect economic growth to slow down below its average in the coming months, but we are important to avoid a recession." Here are some specific quotes from Powell's previous FOMC press conferences that he may repeat or echo in the upcoming conference: * "Inflation is running far too high, and we are strongly committed to bringing it back down to 2%." * "We will continue to raise interest rates until we are confident that inflation is on a sustainable downward path." * "We understand that high inflation is causing hardship for many Americans, and we are committed to doing everything we can to bring it down." * "We are monitoring economic data closely, and we will adjust our monetary policy as needed." * "We are committed to a smooth transition to a more neutral monetary policy stance." "The US job market remains strong, with low unemployment and high job openings." It is important to note that Powell's remarks at the upcoming FOMC conference will be based on the latest economic data and the FOMC's assessment of the risks and uncertainties facing the US economy. However, e market reaction to a possible FED pause is almost unpredictable!
NASDAQ:NDX
by Moshkelgosha
9
How to Trade with Andrews’ PitchforkIn the world of trading, tools like Andrews’ Pitchfork stand out for their precision and versatility. Dive in to discover how to use the Pitchfork for stock analysis and more with this comprehensive article, including how it’s drawn, its applications, and its limitations. What Is the Andrews' Pitchfork Indicator? Andrews' Pitchfork is a popular technical indicator in the financial markets, designed by Dr. Alan Andrews. This tool helps traders visualise price channels and anticipate possible trend directions. At its most basic, the Pitchfork is composed of three parallel lines that trace the journey of an asset's price on a chart. To plot this tool, traders begin by identifying three significant points: a notable high, a low, and a subsequent high or low. The central line, known as the "median line," connects the first point to the midpoint of the second and third points. This median line represents the heart of the market's momentum over a given period. On either side of the median line, two parallel lines are drawn, stemming from the second and third points. These lines act as boundaries, indicating possible areas where the price may encounter support or resistance. In other words, the upper line showcases where the price might face hurdles in an uptrend, while the lower line pinpoints regions where the price could hold strong or face obstacles during downtrends. Together, these three lines create a channel that offers traders insights into potential price movements, making Andrews' Pitchfork a powerful tool in technical analysis. How to Draw Andrews' Pitchfork in Technical Analysis To effectively employ Andrews' Pitchfork in a strategy, one must first establish its foundation: the three pivotal points. Here's a systematic approach: Identify the Initial Point: Start with a significant high or low on the price chart. This point will form the base of the Pitchfork. Locate the Subsequent Points: After the initial point, identify the next major high and low in sequence. These points provide the width of the Pitchfork and help establish its angle. Draw the Median Line: Connect the initial point to the midpoint of the line formed by the two subsequent points. This becomes your median line. Form the Parallel Lines: Draw two lines, starting from the two subsequent points, running parallel to the median line. These will create the potential support and resistance boundaries of the Pitchfork. With these steps, Andrews' Pitchfork is plotted on the chart, offering a structured view of potential price movements and trends. If you’d like to practise drawing Andrews’ Pitchfork, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started in minutes. How to Trade with Andrews' Pitchfork The Andrews' Pitchfork trading pattern offers a strategic lens to interpret market movements. Traders aren’t restricted to just using Andrews’ Pitchfork for day trading; it’s flexible enough to suit a wide range of timeframes and strategies. Leveraging this tool can be broken down into two primary strategies based on the price's interaction with the Pitchfork's lines. Support and Resistance (Trading Ranges) The outer lines of the Pitchfork chart pattern often act as dynamic levels of support and resistance: Support Levels: When the price is in a downtrend and approaches the lower line of the Pitchfork, traders watch for potential buying opportunities. A bounce off this line might indicate strong support, presenting a chance to buy in anticipation of a price increase. Resistance Levels: In an uptrend, the upper line represents a potential resistance point. If the price struggles to move past this line or shows signs of reversing, traders might consider selling or taking short positions, anticipating a price drop. Breakouts and Breakdowns (Trending Markets) Occasionally, prices can breach the boundaries of the Pitchfork: Breakouts: If the price convincingly moves above the upper line during an uptrend, it may signal a strong bullish momentum. Traders can consider buying or adding to long positions, expecting further upward movement. Breakdowns: Conversely, if the price closes below the lower line in a downtrend, it indicates heightened bearish sentiment. This can be an opportunity for traders to sell or initiate short positions, anticipating continued declines. In all scenarios, it's essential to incorporate other technical indicators and maintain stop-loss orders to manage risks effectively. Limitations of Using Andrews' Pitchfork While Andrews' Pitchfork is a valuable tool for technical analysts, it's crucial to be aware of its limitations. Firstly, the accuracy of the Pitchfork heavily depends on the correct identification of the three pivotal points. An incorrect selection can lead to misleading channels and false signals. Additionally, in highly volatile markets, the price may frequently breach the Pitchfork's boundaries, making predictions challenging. The tool also assumes that the market will respect the defined channels, which isn't always the case, especially during unexpected news events. Therefore, traders use Andrews' Pitchfork in conjunction with other technical indicators to enhance decision-making and minimise potential pitfalls. Final Thoughts Understanding the Pitchfork in technical analysis can provide traders with a strong framework to anticipate potential market movements. Its structured approach to visualising price channels is invaluable, yet it's essential to remember its limitations. To kickstart your trading journey with this tool, you can open an FXOpen account to gain access to a wide variety of markets, lightning-fast execution speeds, and competitive trading costs. Good luck! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
10
Where is the Euro Headed?Despite unprecedented rate hikes up to 450 basis points over the last 12 months the Euro has lost ground to the US Dollar for the last nine straight weeks. As a result, the Eurozone interest rates are historical highs. Currencies desire nothing more than higher rates. The Euro should have popped but instead it flopped after the ECB’s rate hiking decision last Thursday. That says something about the underlying economy and the expectations for interest rates ahead. This note puts forth data backed arguments that macroeconomic fundamentals in Europe is visibly weak. In sharp contrast, the robust economic fundamentals in the US provide strong tailwinds to the US dollar. Consequently, the Fed has great monetary manoeuvring space which will impose bearish pressure on the Euro. Having cranked up rates to a peak unseen before, the ECB’s hands are tied with little room for further hikes despite its hawkish tone. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in Dec 2023. To seize opportunity from a weakening Euro, a short position with an entry at 1.071 combined with a target at 1.035 and hedged by a stop at 1.1025 will deliver an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.14x. MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION TAKES TIME Over the last year, the ECB has increased interest rates, an unprecedented ten times to combat surging inflation. That is a full 450 basis points. Yet inflation remains sticky and persistent. Why? One obvious reason is monetary policy transmission. Monetary policy transmission is the process through which a Central Bank’s monetary decisions impact the economy and the price levels. The mechanism is characterised by long, variable, and indefinite time lags. As a result, it is difficult to predict the precise timing of monetary policy actions on economy and inflation. DATAPOINTS SIGNAL WEAKENING ECONOMY Selected data from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of ECB Governing Council held in July points to growing weakness in Europe. 1. Yield Curve Inversion Deepening: Together with negative euro area data, the inversion has reignited recession concerns. For now, the Euro area’s equity & credit markets remain resilient, hoping for a soft landing. 2. Sharp Contraction in Euro Area: Euro Area Composite PMI has been declining since April 2023 and in July it has fallen below 50. The dynamics are consistent with a weak GDP performance for the second and third quarters of the year. Housing and business investments are estimated to have declined. 3. Shrinking Demand for Loans: The latest bank lending survey signals further tightening of credit standards and sharp drop in loan demand in Q2 across businesses and households. The reported demand for loans among corporations had fallen to an all-time low since the start of the survey in 2003 and, for the first time, was lower than at the height of the global financial crisis. 4. Growth could stall due to over correction: Growth could slow far more sharply if effects of monetary policy were more forceful than expected, or if the world economy weakens dampening demand for euro area exports. AFTER UNPRECEDENTED RATE HIKES, WHAT’S NEXT? As evident from weakening signals cited above, the ECBs hands are tied. ECB President Lagarde has little option other than maintaining a hawkish tone to manage expectations. When the ECB regroups again in December, the likelihood of rate hike is thin. Hawkish pause? Maybe. As Katie Martin writes in her weekly opinion piece for the Financial Times, “few truly believe the central bank really would raise rates further, especially while the region’s economy feels the strain from the tighter policy enacted so far and from the impact of weaker Chinese demand on German manufacturing.” ECB’s euro area growth forecasts are on the decline. The central bank expects 0.7% growth for this year (down from 0.9% as previously estimated). For 2024, the ECB now forecasts 1% growth (compared to 1.5% growth projected previously). Forecasting the future is hard. It is evident from a survey of economists (see chart below) conducted by Bloomberg earlier this month. The market expectations are for rates to stay flat at 4% for now with rate reductions from Q2 next year. When these expectations become consensus, Euro weakening will accelerate. DOLLAR CONTINUED STRENGTH AGAINST THE EURO The Euro has shed more than 5% against the greenback since mid-July. Shaky fundamentals and an elevated risk of recession have raised questions on ECB’s ability to continue hiking. Contrast this against the conditions in the US. The US economy has been marvellously resilient and set to have one of its best years yet. This backdrop emboldens the US Fed to take on an aggressive monetary posture. TRADE SET UP Interest rates at record elevated levels combined with weakening economy and feeble prospects, collectively pushes recession risks higher in the eurozone. This will corner the ECB into a pause or even cause it to hint at rate cuts during the December meeting. As a result, the Euro will be pressured lower against the US dollar. To ride on the opportunities from a weakening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in Dec 2023 (M6EZ2023) with an entry at 1.071 combined with a target at 1.035 and hedged by a stop at 1.1025, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.14x. Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25. • Entry: 1.071 • Target: 1.035 • Stop: 1.1025 • Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 450 ( = 0.036; 360 pips; 360 x 1.25 = 450) • Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 393.75 ( = -0.0315; -315 pips; -315 x 1.25 = -393.75) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.14x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by mintdotfinance
8