Gold Trading Strategy: A Professional Approach to XAUUSD 👀 👉 This comprehensive video presents a sophisticated trading plan for the XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar) market, designed to maximize profitability through a structured approach. We delve into crucial aspects of technical analysis and leverage TradingView's advanced tools to gain a competitive edge in the markets.
Key topics covered include:
1. Trend identification and analysis
2. Entry and exit criteria
3. Market overextension assessment
4. Discount entry strategies aligned with institutional positioning
5. Higher timeframe trend analysis combined with 4-hour chart entry points
6. Price action and market structure interpretation
Our methodology emphasizes the importance of avoiding premium entries in bullish markets and instead focuses on identifying optimal discount entry opportunities. By aligning our strategy with institutional movements, we aim to enhance the probability of successful trades.
The video provides a detailed exploration of various technical analysis components, including:
- Trend analysis techniques
- Market structure interpretation
- Price action patterns
- Overextension indicators
- Traded Volume indicators
- Multi-timeframe analysis (higher timeframe trend combined with 4-hour chart entries)
This comprehensive approach to XAUUSD trading is designed to equip traders with the tools and knowledge necessary to navigate the gold market effectively and potentially increase their trading success.
Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial situation before making any investment decisions. Trade responsibly and use proper risk management techniques. 📉✅
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Trading Near the Bells Part 1: The OpenWelcome to our 2-part series on how to trade the two most intense, liquid, and volatile periods of the trading day: the open and the close. These moments bookend the trading session and are critical for traders who thrive on fast-paced environments.
In Part 1, we’ll focus on the open—the first hour after the market bell rings. We will explore why this period offers unique trading opportunities, examine key price patterns, and discuss proven strategies for capturing profit while managing risk during this high-volatility window. From gap trading to opening range breakouts, understanding the open is essential for those looking to capitalise on the rush of liquidity and order flow at the start of each session.
The Significance of the Open
The open is often the most critical time of the trading day. It sets the tone for the session as market participants react to overnight developments, including earnings reports, geopolitical events, and economic data releases. The first hour of trading typically sees a surge in volume as traders place orders based on these new inputs, creating significant liquidity and volatility. This influx of activity can result in sharp price moves, offering traders the chance to capture quick profits.
Additionally, the open provides vital clues about market sentiment. The price action within the first 30-60 minutes can hint at whether the market will experience a trend day or a range-bound session. Understanding how to interpret and trade this period effectively can give traders a strategic edge, allowing them to capitalise on these early movements while managing risk appropriately.
Three Strategies for Trading the Open
1. Gap and Go
The "Gap and Go" strategy focuses on stocks or index’s that gap up or down significantly at the open and continue to move in the same direction. This strategy works best when the gap is backed by a fundamental catalyst, such as a strong earnings report, positive economic data, or a major news announcement. Gaps that are supported by solid news or events tend to continue in the same direction as they attract significant buying or selling pressure.
Additionally, this strategy is most effective when the price is breaking out of a period of compression or a key level of resistance. For instance, if a stock has been consolidating under a major resistance level and gaps up on strong earnings, it is likely to trigger further buying as traders who were waiting for the breakout jump into the trade.
• Key Setup: Look for gaps backed by a catalyst and breaking out of key technical levels.
• Entry: Enter in the direction of the gap if the price holds above or below the opening range.
• Stop-Loss: Set your stop near the gap level or below the opening range to protect against a quick reversal.
Example Gap and Go:
In this example, the S&P 500 gaps above both a descending trendline and a key resistance area at the open – backed by inflation data that had come in lower than expected. The gap holds within the first hour and continues to rise throughout the session, demonstrating how the early price action set the stage for the rest of the day.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
The Opening Range Breakout strategy involves identifying the high and low of the first 15-30 minutes of trading and looking for a breakout beyond this range. This strategy works best when the breakout aligns with the broader market trend. If the larger trend is bullish and the stock or currency pair breaks above its opening range, it indicates that the market is continuing in the direction of the prevailing trend, providing a higher probability trade.
• Key Setup: Works well when the breakout is in line with the bigger picture trend.
• Entry: Enter long if the price breaks above the opening range with strong volume, or enter short if it breaks below.
• Stop-Loss: Place stops just inside the opening range to protect against false breakouts.
Example ORB:
In this scenario, the S&P 500 establishes a clear range within the first hour. A decisive break below this range leads to a cascade of selling pressure, indicating how the breakout set the tone for the rest of the session.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Gap Fade
The Gap Fade strategy involves trading against the initial gap, assuming the move is overextended or lacks a fundamental catalyst. This strategy works particularly well when the gap occurs without significant news or events to justify the price movement. Traders using this approach bet that the market has overreacted to the gap and that the price will reverse and "fill" the gap by moving back toward the previous day's close.
Additionally, this strategy is effective when the gap coincides with a trend that has become extended on higher timeframes, suggesting that the market is due for a correction or reversal. For example, if a stock gaps up but has been in a prolonged uptrend and appears overbought on the daily chart, it may be primed for a pullback.
• Key Setup: Best used when there is no significant catalyst behind the gap and when the trend is extended.
• Entry: Short-sell if the gap appears overextended and lacks momentum, aiming to catch the reversal.
• Stop-Loss: Set your stop above the high of the opening range for shorts (or below the low for longs) to limit losses in case the move continues.
Example Gap Fade:
In this example, the S&P 500 gaps higher but stalls at a key resistance area. The market fails to continue higher during the first hour, leading to a break below resistance and a downtrend for the rest of the session.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
The market open is a dynamic period full of opportunity for traders who are prepared to act quickly. Whether you prefer trading with the momentum of a Gap and Go, riding the trend with an Opening Range Breakout, or fading an overextended Gap, understanding the unique characteristics of the open is a crucial element of short-term trading. By using these strategies and adjusting them to the day's market conditions, you can navigate the volatility of the open with confidence and precision.
In Part 2 we’ll dive into trading the close—the other bookend of the trading day with its own set of challenges and opportunities.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
How I Use Multi Timeframe Analysis to Capture LARGE Price SwingsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
TUTORIAL:
Today, I demonstrate the thought process and mechanical steps I take when trading my Multi-Timeframe strategy. We take a look at US Treasuries, which have offers a classic lesson in how to apply this approach.
As you will see, throughout the year, this approach took some losses prior to getting involved in the "real" move which we anticipated. No strategy is perfect, and I do not purport this to be perfect. It is a rules based and effective way to read price. This strategy is great for people who don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. I would classify this more as an "investing" strategy when utilizing the 12M-2W-12H timeframe.
If you have questions about anything in this video, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you have all had a great week so far.
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Q4 Bullish Continuation Bitcoin's price action continues to show a strong bullish trend. After multiple corrective pullbacks, the price has consistently rebounded within the established channel. We saw significant corrections of -20%, -22%, and -28%, yet BTC remains on course for a potential breakout towards the next major top in the $100K+ range. With strong support holding at GETTEX:46K and consistent higher lows, this chart highlights the resilience of Bitcoin and its potential for continuation to new highs.
Let's see how the next leg unfolds! 🚀 #BTC #Bullish #Crypto
Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall.
The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend.
This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal.
Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower.
We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support.
XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in.
Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bearish reversalWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 68.80 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 71.65 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 65.24 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Identifying Entry Points in EUR/USD: A Simple RSI StrategyAs a former professional technical analyst at a major bank, I used to write daily reports on the euro vs. the US dollar. Today, I want to share a technique I often used to identify entry points in the market.
Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart, I’ve spotted a large symmetrical triangle that’s completed, with the market breaking higher. A common move in this pattern is a retest of the breakout point, which here would be a drop to around 1.0930. As long as the price stays above 1.0930, the pattern holds, and your outlook remains valid—this also helps define where to set your stop.
Next, I zoom into lower time frames, such as the daily or 4-hour charts, to find potential entry points. I rely on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to identify oversold conditions. If the daily chart shows no clear signals, I move to the 4-hour chart. Right now, the 4-hour chart is showing periods of oversold RSI, which is when I’d consider entering long positions.
Remember, the price might not drop all the way to 1.0930, so you’ll need to decide when to enter the market. Using RSI and adjusting down time frames can help you make that call, with your stop already in place.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Traders Turning to Traditional Stocks and Dow Jones In July, most markets reached their peak, followed by a three-day global meltdown after the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike. Since then, all have recovered, but only the Dow Jones has surpassed its July high, while the others have not.
AI and tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq, have lost their shine compared to traditional stocks like those in the Dow Jones.
We will explore which sectors investors are gravitating towards this time and why they favor the Dow Jones over the Nasdaq this season.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
What is Reward to Risk Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Planning your every Forex trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits in Forex trading.
What is Reward to Risk Ratio
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a reward to risk ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, reward to risk ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips rerward with a potential loss of 150 pips.
R/R ratio = 75 / 150 = 0.5
Reward to risk ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Positive and Negative Reward to Risk Ratio
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
R/R ratio > 1
If the ratio is less than 1 , it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
R/R ratio < 1
On the left chart above, the reward for the trade is bigger than a risk.
Such a trade has positive reward to risk ratio.
On the right chart, the risk is bigger than a reward.
This trade has negative reward to risk ratio.
Why?
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You require at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You will need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
In the example above, the trading setups have 0.5 reward to risk ratio. In such a case, 2 winning trades will be needed to win the money back for 1 losing trade.
Forex trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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Unlock the 10 Core Lessons Every Trader Needs for SuccessYou know that feeling when you stare at the charts, convinced you’re about to strike gold, only for the trade to go so wrong, you wonder if the market gods have a personal vendetta against you? Yeah, we’ve all been there.
But here’s the thing—it's not the market that's out to get you. It’s you.
Let’s cut to the chase: trading success isn’t just about mastering candlestick patterns or finding the perfect strategy. It’s about mastering yourself. So, I’m laying out the 10 core lessons that can stop you from sabotaging your trades—and maybe even save you from throwing your laptop out the window.
1. Emotional Self-Control (AKA Don’t Be Your Own Worst Enemy)
Ever taken a trade out of sheer frustration or FOMO? Spoiler alert: that’s your emotions talking, and they rarely have your back. Mastering emotional self-control is like giving yourself a built-in cheat code. Stay calm, stay cool, and you’ll stay profitable.
Quick task: Next time you feel emotions kicking in, take a 5-minute break before making any trade decisions. Walk away, breathe, then come back with a clear head.
2. Every Trade is a Lesson (Yes, Even the Ugly Ones)
Think that losing trade was a total waste of time? Wrong. Every trade, good or bad, is packed with insights. The market is your professor—start taking notes. You’ll find out where you’re tripping up, and trust me, you’ll trip less.
Quick task: Start a trade journal. Write down not just the outcome of each trade, but your emotions and reasoning at the time. Review it weekly to spot patterns.
3. Mindset is Everything (Cue the Zen Music)
You’ve probably heard it before, but it's worth repeating: mindset is everything. If you’re not thinking straight, your trades won’t be either. A positive mindset keeps you focused, even when the market is doing its best to mess with you.
Quick task: Before your next trading session, spend 5 minutes visualizing success. Remind yourself why you’re trading and what you’re working toward. This will keep your mindset sharp.
4. Have a Plan (Because Winging It Doesn’t Work Here)
If you’re going into trades without a solid game plan, you’re basically showing up to a knife fight with a spoon. Every trade should have a strategy, clear entry/exit points, and a reason behind it. Stop winging it—you’re better than that.
Quick task: Create a simple pre-trade checklist. Include things like entry/exit strategy, risk level, and reasons for entering the trade. Stick to it religiously.
5. Adapt or Get Left Behind (The Market Isn’t Waiting for You)
The market changes faster than your favorite Netflix series gets canceled. What worked yesterday may not work tomorrow. Be flexible, keep learning, and adapt. Otherwise, you’re going to be the guy stuck using strategies from 2010 in 2024.
Quick task: Spend 10 minutes a day researching a new trading strategy or tool. Even if you don’t use it right away, expanding your knowledge keeps you adaptable.
6. Patience Pays (And Impatience Costs You Big Time)
There’s no bigger account killer than impatience. Jumping in too early, exiting too late, chasing trades—it’s a recipe for disaster. Sometimes, the best move is to wait. Trust me, patience in trading is like waiting for that perfect slice of pizza—totally worth it.
Quick task: Set up alerts for your key setups instead of staring at the screen, waiting for something to happen. This forces you to only trade when your setup is there, not when you’re bored.
7. Risk Management is Non-Negotiable (No, Seriously)
If you don’t manage your risk, you’re playing with fire—and we all know how that ends. Set stop-losses, size your positions properly, and don’t gamble your entire account on a “gut feeling.” It’s not about how much you win, it’s about how little you lose.
Quick task: Review your last 10 trades and check how well you stuck to your risk management rules. If you didn't, figure out why and correct it for the next trade.
8. Never Stop Learning (The Market Has Zero Chill)
The market is constantly evolving, and if you think you’ve got it all figured out, the market is ready to humble you real quick. Stay curious, keep learning, and don’t let complacency be the reason you get left in the dust.
Quick task: Dedicate 30 minutes a week to learning something new—whether it’s a new strategy, a new tool, or just reading up on market trends. Never stop sharpening the saw.
9. Balance Emotions with Logic (It’s Like a Jedi Mind Trick)
This is where it gets tricky. You can’t trade on pure logic, but trading on pure emotion is just as dangerous. You need to find the sweet spot—where you can recognize your emotions, but let logic steer the ship. It’s like becoming a Jedi of your own trading.
Quick task: Before you enter your next trade, ask yourself one question: “Is this based on emotion or strategy?” If it’s emotion, step back until you’re thinking clearly.
10. Focus on the Process, Not Just the Profits (Money is a Byproduct)
Everyone wants to make money, but here’s the secret: focus on nailing your process. The profits will come as a result. If you’re constantly thinking about the money, you’re missing the point. Perfect your process, and let the money follow.
Quick task: Pick one area of your trading process to improve—whether it’s your analysis, your entry strategy, or your risk management—and focus solely on that for the next week. Master the process, the profits will follow.
Master these 10 lessons, and you’ll find yourself trading with more confidence, discipline, and success. Trading is as much a mental game as it is a technical one, and by focusing on these principles, you’re setting yourself up for long-term wins.
Now, which of these lessons do you need to focus on in your own trading journey? Let me know below :)
Apple Bets on iPhone 16 to Catch Up in AI Race. What's at Stake?Tech heavyweight carries a valuation of $3.4 trillion, making it the world’s most expensive company (on most days, thanks to volatility). But the consumer giant may be running out of ideas — its latest product event “It’s Glowtime” was a spectacle of colors, flashy lights, great camera work and editing. But the crowd went … mild.
Apple (ticker: AAPL ) unveiled the latest model of its flagship product, the iPhone 16, at its product launch event “It’s Glowtime” on Monday.
This wonder of technology, which changed how the world communicates (and sends memes), is now in its most advanced form flexing some solid AI muscle. The iPhone 16 is a bet on artificial intelligence — the Cupertino, California-based company is putting its hopes on the buzzy AI trend in an effort to convince users to dump their old non-AI phone for the first Apple smartphone built for AI.
Chief Executive Tim Cook praised the new device, saying this latest model is designed “from the ground up” powered by Apple’s new AI software, Apple Intelligence . Users can get their hands on the iPhone 16 starting September 20 — just in time for the fourth quarter to show how big of a demand there is for this new device, starting at $799.
The product launch event, streamed live on YouTube to more than 2.5 million viewers, didn’t lift Apple shares one bit. In fact, the stock was moving sideways to the downside before it recouped the 1.9% intraday loss and closed hugging the flatline at $220.91 a share. It wasn't a great day for the broader stock market , to be fair.
So why the muted response from Wall Street and the investing crowds on Reddit’s messaging boards? There was merely anything new to surprise markets — most of the announcements were already old news, priced in and well baked in.
What matters now is how well the iPhone 16 sells to the masses. The three months to December are generally strong selling time spans for the iPhone as more people are willing to shell out on smartphones for Christmas. But that could very well be the initial marketing spike followed by fizzled out revenue growth. That’s where Apple’s future hinges on its ability to keep cutting edge and think different .
Backed by the power of AI, Wall Street will be looking for a boost to iPhone sales, which have been losing momentum in recent quarters. Now with the Apple Intelligence software jammed into the latest operating system, iOS 18, Apple is looking to compete for a market share in the burgeoning space for AI smartphones.
The tech giant is not too worried about getting left behind. Its iPhone flaunts a loyal customer base, which generates about half of all company revenue. For the most-recent quarter, iPhone sales pulled in $39.3 billion from total sales of $85.5 billion.
But in practice, Apple is already late to the party. Other mainstays in the upper echelon of tech have rolled out AI phones. Google launched its AI smartphone, Pixel 8, back in October. Samsung, Apple's international archrival running on Android, introduced the Samsung S24 in January, flexing powerful AI capabilities.
Perhaps the biggest news at yesterday’s event was Apple’s foray into healthcare. A new use case has been discovered for the AirPods: they’ll be taking on the role of hearing aids, which makes the $250 Pro model a cheap product in the market for hearing aids. Other product releases, other than the iPhone 16, include the Apple Watch Series 10 with an updated design, and the Apple Watch Ultra 2 in a new color (looks like the Ultra team had an ultra easy job this year.)
So, with that said, what makes you want to invest in Apple? Or maybe trade it? Is it the bright outlook in the AI smartphone race? Or the company’s search for innovation in healthcare? Share your thoughts below!
Head and Shoulders Pattern on AUD/USD On the AUD/USD chart, we are seeing a clear Head and Shoulders pattern , which is a strong indication of a potential bearish reversal. This pattern consists of three peaks, with the middle peak (the "Head") being the highest, and the two smaller peaks (the "Shoulders") on either side.
Key Points:
Left Shoulder: Formed , marking the first peak before the minor decline.
Head: The highest peak , indicating the strongest upward move before the market turned lower.
Right Shoulder: The second smaller peak has formed, suggesting the bearish momentum is resuming.
Neckline: The neckline, which connects the two troughs. A break below this line would confirm the bearish reversal pattern.
All About the Flag Pattern (Beginner-Friendly)Hello everyone,
Today, I’ve prepared an educational guide on chart patterns, specifically focusing on the Flag Pattern.
This content is designed to be easy for beginners to follow, so I hope you find it engaging and informative. :)
Below is the outline I’ll be using for this post:
————
✔️ Outline
1. What is a Flag Pattern?
Definition
Key Components
Characteristics
2. Bullish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
3. Bearish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
————
1. What is a Flag Pattern?
1) Definition
A Flag Pattern forms during a brief consolidation phase after a strong price movement, often signaling the continuation of a trend. It typically appears when prices make a sharp move, either up or down, followed by a period of sideways or slightly counter-trend movement.
Flag Patterns can occur in both uptrends and downtrends, named for their resemblance to an actual flag. After a strong price move, the market consolidates briefly before continuing in the original trend direction.
2) Key Components
Flagpole: The initial strong price movement that sets the overall trend direction before the consolidation phase.
Flag: The consolidation period where prices move sideways or slightly counter to the trend, often forming a rectangle or parallelogram. This phase typically occurs with a decrease in trading volume.
Breakout: The moment when the price resumes its original trend direction. In an uptrend, this is an upward breakout, and in a downtrend, a downward breakout, confirming the continuation of the trend.
3) Characteristics
Duration: The Flag Pattern typically lasts longer than the Flagpole but varies depending on the timeframe.
Volume: Volume usually decreases during the Flag’s formation and increases once the breakout occurs.
Reliability: The Flag Pattern is considered a reliable indicator of trend continuation, making it a favorite among traders using trend-based strategies.
————
2. Bullish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
A Bullish Flag forms after a strong upward price movement, signaling a temporary consolidation phase. During this consolidation, volume typically decreases, suggesting that the market is pausing rather than reversing. After this phase, the price often continues its upward trend, accompanied by an increase in volume. Bullish Flag Patterns also help relieve overbought conditions in technical indicators, providing the market with a chance to prepare for another move up.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2023 shows a strong Flagpole followed by a long consolidation phase (Flag). The volume then increased as the price broke out, completing the Bullish Flag Pattern.
2-2) Example 2
In this chart from March 2021, we see a similar setup: a strong Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase, leading to a breakout that continued the upward trend.
————
3. Bearish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
The Bearish Flag Pattern is the inverse of the Bullish Flag. It follows a strong downward move (Flagpole) and is followed by a period of consolidation (Flag) with decreasing volume. Like its bullish counterpart, the Bearish Flag can relieve oversold conditions, leading to a continuation of the downtrend after a breakout.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2022 displays a Bearish Flag Pattern: a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a Flag consolidation phase. After the consolidation, a breakout occurred, continuing the downtrend.
2-2) Example 2
This chart from February 2022 also illustrates a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase (Flag), leading to a breakout that completed the Bearish Flag Pattern.
This guide will help you better understand the Flag Pattern and how it can be used in your trading strategy effectively!
————
✔️ Conclusion
I hope the various Flag Patterns and market analysis techniques covered in this post prove helpful in your investment journey. Chart analysis is not merely a technical skill but also a deeper understanding of market psychology and movement. Flag Patterns, along with other chart patterns, visually reflect the psychological dynamics of the market. Mastering their use can greatly contribute to successful trading.
That being said, the crypto market is inherently unpredictable and fast-moving. While technical analysis is a valuable tool, it’s important to adopt a comprehensive approach that considers broader market trends and external factors. I encourage you to apply the insights gained from this post with a balanced and cautious perspective when making investment decisions.
New opportunities are constantly emerging, and those who are prepared to seize them will find success. The chart represents the market’s voice. Listening to it, interpreting it, and making informed decisions based on that interpretation is "the essence" of chart analysis.
I sincerely hope that, through continuous learning and experience, you’ll evolve into a more confident and successful investor.
NAS100 I Potential long from bottom of the channelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** NAS100 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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The Art of Candlestick Trading: How to Spot Market Turns EarlyBuckle up, TradingViewers! It's time to unravel the ancient secrets of candlestick patterns. Originating from an 18th-century Japanese rice trader, these patterns aren't simply red and green elements on your trading charts—they are the Rosetta Stone of market sentiment, offering insights into the highs and lows and the middle ground of buyers and sellers’ dealmaking.
If you’re ready to crack the code of the market from a technical standpoint and go inside the minds of bulls and bears, let’s light this candle!
Understanding the Basics: The Candlestick Construction
First things first, let’s get the basics hammered out. A candlestick (or Candle in your TradingView Supercharts panel) displays four key pieces of information: the open, close, high, and low prices for a particular trading period. It might be 1 minute, 4 hours, a day or a week — candlesticks are available on every time frame. Here’s the breakdown:
The Body : This is the chunky part of the candle. If the close is above the open, the body is usually colored in white or green, representing a bullish session. If the close is below the open, the color is usually black or red, indicating a bearish session.
The Wicks (or Shadows) : These are the thin lines poking out of the body, showing the high and low prices during the session. They tell tales of price extremes and rejections.
Understanding the interplay between the body and the wicks will give you insight into market dynamics. It’s like watching a mini-drama play out over the trading day.
Key Candlestick Patterns and What They Mean
Now onto the fun part — candlestick formations and patterns may help you spot market turns (or continuations) early in the cycle.
The Doji : This little guy is like the market’s way of throwing up its hands and declaring a truce between buyers and sellers. The open and close are virtually the same, painting a cross or plus sign shape. It signals indecision, which could mean a reversal or a continuation, depending on the context. See a Doji after a long uptrend? Might be time to brace for a downturn.
The Hammer and the Hanging Man : These candles have small bodies, little to no upper wick, and long lower wicks. A Hammer usually forms during a downtrend, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. The Hanging Man, its evil twin, appears during an uptrend and warns of a potential drop.
Bullish and Bearish Engulfing: These are the bullies of candlestick patterns. A Bullish Engulfing pattern happens when a small bearish candle is followed by a large bullish candle that completely engulfs the prior candle's body — suggesting a strong turn to the bulls. Bearish Engulfing is the opposite, with a small bullish candle followed by a big bearish one, hinting that bears might be taking control of the wheel.
The Morning Star and the Evening Star : These are three-candle patterns signaling major shifts. The Morning Star — a bullish reversal pattern — consists of a bearish candle, a small-bodied middle candle, and a long bullish candle. Think the dawn of new bullish momentum. The Evening Star, the bearish counterpart, indicates the onset of bearish momentum, as if the sun is setting on bullish prices.
The Shooting Star and the Inverted Hammer : Last but not least, these candles indicate rejection of higher prices (Shooting Star) or lower prices (Inverted Hammer). Both feature small bodies, long upper wicks, and little to no lower wick. They flag price exhaustion and potential reversals.
Trading Candlestick Patterns: Tips for Profitable Entries
Context is King : Always interpret candlestick patterns within the larger market context. A Bullish Engulfing pattern at a key support level is more likely to pan out than one in no-man’s-land.
Volume Validates : A candlestick pattern with high trading volume gives a stronger signal. It’s like the market shouting, “Hey, I really mean this move!”
Confirm with Other Indicators : Don’t rely solely on candlesticks, though. Use them in conjunction with other technical tools like RSI, MACD, or moving averages to confirm signals.
Wrapping It Up
Candlestick patterns give you a sense for the market’s pulse and offer insights into its moment-to-moment sentiment — is it overreacting or staying too tight-lipped. Mastering candlesticks can elevate your trading by helping you spot trend reversals and continuations. These patterns aren’t foolproof — they are powerful tools in your trading toolkit but require additional work, knowledge and context to give them a higher probability of confirmation.
It’s time to light up those charts and let the candlesticks illuminate your trading path to some good profits!
Minimal Complimentary Aesthetic No analysis but wanted to share this color scheme I have concocted. It's nice to look at a beautiful chart if you're going to be staring at it for hours on end.
I like to avoid very bright or jarring colors on my charts. I also avoid red as much as possible because it's not ideal for keeping a calm collected mind required for trading (IMO).
I went for a cool modern look with complimentary oranges and steel blues.
Here's the details:
Canvas:
Background Gradient
Top: 1d2c3a
Bottom: 29485b
Text: d1e6ff
--
Candles:
Up (color, opacity)
Body: b2b5be, 0
Border: b2b5be, 100
Wick: b2b5be, 100
Down (color, opacity)
Body: f9a26c, 100
Border: f26627, 100
Wick: f26627, 100
Vert/ Horizontal grid lines optional but if you decide to use them I personally like to use a very low opacity dark grey. And I use yellow for the price line but you can use whatever tbh.
Here are the indicators used:
Enjoy the theme and share any you have made you really like.
What I Wish I Knew as a Beginner: Daily ATR + Daily Open PriceIn this video, I dive into the crucial lessons I wish I knew when I first started trading, focusing on the Daily ATR and daily open price. Many U.S. traders believe they're getting an early start by waking up at 4-6 AM, but in reality, the New York session is the final session in the Forex market. By the time we hit our screens, the market might already be 'gassed,' with the ATR nearly maxed out.
I explain why understanding this can save you from chasing trades that have already exhausted their potential. I'll also discuss the importance of the daily candle open, when the ATR value 'resets,' providing fresh opportunities for day traders. Learn how to time your entries better and avoid the common pitfalls that can trap even experienced traders
ISM Manufacturing PMI Remains Contractionary ISM Manufacturing PMI (released today).
Rep: 47.2 🚨Below Expectations & contractionary🚨
Exp: 47.5
Prev: 46.8
Anything below 50 is considered contractionary.
ISM Services PMI
ISM Services PMI is released this Thursday 5th Sept 2024. ISM Services is currently expansionary at 51.4. Lets see what Thursday brings.
Beginner Chart Patterns: Head & Shoulders, Double Tops and MoreWelcome to the world of chart patterns—the place where every price action tells a story. And if you read it right, you might just walk away with profits. In this Idea, we explore the immersive corner of technical analysis where chart patterns shape to potentially show you where the price is going. We’ll keep it tight and break down the most popular ones so you’d have more time to take your knowledge for a spin and look for some patterns (risk-free with a paper trading account ?). Let’s roll.
Chart patterns are the market’s version of geometry paired with hieroglyphics. They might look like random squiggles at first, but once you learn to decode them, they might reveal where the market is headed next. Here are the mainstay chart patterns everyone should start with: Head and Shoulders, Double Tops, and a few other gems.
1. Head and Shoulders: The King of Reversals
First up is the Head and Shoulders pattern—an iconic, evergreen, ever-fashionable formation that traders dream about. Why? Because it’s a reliable reversal pattern that often signals the end of a trend and the beginning of a new one.
Here’s the breakdown: Imagine a market that’s been climbing higher. It forms a peak (a shoulder), pulls back, then rallies even higher to form a bigger peak (the head), only to drop again. Finally, it gives one last weak attempt to rise (the second shoulder), but it can’t reach the same height as the head. The neckline, a horizontal line connecting the two lows between the peaks, is your trigger. Once the price breaks below it, it’s time to consider shorting or bailing on your long position.
And yes, there’s an inverted version of this pattern too. It looks like a man doing a handstand and signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. That’s Head and Shoulders—flipping trends since forever.
2. Double Tops and Double Bottoms: The Market’s Déjà Vu
Next up, we have the Double Top and Double Bottom patterns—the market’s way of saying, “Been there, done that.” These patterns occur when the price tries and fails—twice—to break through a key level.
Double Top : Picture this: The price surges to a high, only to hit a ceiling and fall back. Then, like a stubborn child, it tries again but fails to break through. That’s your Double Top—two peaks, one resistance level, and a potential trend reversal in the making. When the price drops below the support formed by the dip between the two peaks, it’s a signal that the bulls are out of steam.
Double Bottom : Flip it over, and you’ve got a Double Bottom—a W-shaped pattern that forms after the price tests a support level twice. If it can’t break lower and starts to rally, it’s a sign that the bears are losing control. A breakout above the peak between the two lows confirms the pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
3. Triangles: The Calm Before the Storm
Triangles are the market’s way of coiling up before making a big move. They come in three flavors—ascending, descending, and symmetrical.
Ascending Triangle : Here’s how it works: The price forms higher lows but keeps bumping into the same resistance level. This shows that buyers are getting stronger, but sellers aren’t ready to give up. Eventually, pressure builds and the price breaks out to the upside. But since it’s trading, you can expect the price to break to the downside, too.
Descending Triangle : The opposite of the ascending triangle, this pattern shows lower highs leaning against a flat support level. Sellers are gaining the upper hand and when the price breaks below the support, it’s usually game over for the bulls. But not always—sometimes, bulls would have it their way.
Symmetrical Triangle : This is the market’s version of a coin toss. The price is squeezing into a tighter range with lower highs and higher lows. It’s anyone’s guess which way it’ll break, but when it does, expect a big move in that direction.
4. Flags and Pennants: The Market’s Pit Stop
If triangles are the calm before the storm, then flags and pennants are the pit stops during a race. These patterns are continuation signals, meaning that the trend is likely to keep going after a brief pause.
Flags : Flags are rectangular-shaped patterns that slope against the prevailing trend. If the market’s in an uptrend, the flag will slope downwards, and vice versa. Once the price breaks out of the flag in the direction of the original trend, it’s usually off to the races again.
Pennants : Pennants look like tiny symmetrical triangles. After a strong move, the price consolidates in a small, converging range before breaking out and continuing the trend. They’re short-lived but pack a punch.
Final Thoughts
To many technical analysts, chart patterns are the best thing the market can do. The secret code, or however you may want to call them, they can give you insight into the dealmaking between buyers and sellers and hint at what might happen next.
Whether it’s a Head and Shoulders flashing a trend reversal, a Double Top marking a key resistance level, or a Triangle gearing up for a breakout, these patterns are essential tools in your trading garden.
So next time you stare at a chart, keep in mind that you’re not just looking at random lines. You’re reading the market’s mind from a technical standpoint. And if you know what to look for, you’re one step closer to cracking the code.
A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in A Barrel" Soybean ShortIf you follow my channel, you know I love to trade a strategy that I like to call "Ducks in a Barrel". Its a strategy that is as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel.
We have a setup forming on the Daily timeframe for the Soybeans market.
Step 1: Identify trend (I like to see the 52 & 39 period SMA's sloping strongly and pulling away from each other). In the case of Soybeans, we see a strong bearish trend.
Step 2: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERVALUED VS GOLD & US TREASURIES. We see with Soybeans, we are now overvalued on the Daily timeframe vs gold & treasuries. Assets that are overvalued in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 3: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERBOUGHT. We see on the Daily stochastic that Soybeans are overbought. Assets that are overbought in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 4: In a down trending market, we want to see advisor SENTIMENT become BULLISH. The advisors and general public are usually wrong, so when they become overly bullish in a strong down trend, we want to sell into that bullish sentiment.
Step 5: We can also look at accumulation/distribution indicators and momentum for further confirmation of our idea. But realistically, we just need to see 2 or more of the above indicators confluent with each other to have a setup market.
Step 6: For the Daily timeframe, I utilize the H4 chart for my entry. The safest entry is to wait for 2 full range days to form beneath the 18 period SMA, and from there market enter when the lowest low of these 2 candles is hit. There are other entry techniques to get into the market earlier, but they come with greater risk.
NOTE: If you follow my channel, you will know that I am long Soybeans based on my COT strategy. Commercials are close to the max long positioning of the last 3 years (bullish), OI grinding up on the multi-month down move caused by CM's (bullish), paunch forming (bullish), bearish weekly sentiment (bullish), undervalued on weekly vs gold and treasuries (bullish), major cyclical lows (bullish). I have different accounts for different strategies, as sometimes we get conflicting signals.
If you have any questions about these "ducks in a barrel" trade setups, feel free to give me a message.
As always, I wish you good luck & good trading.
Meta (META): Watching for a SetbackIt has been a lovely rise within META since 2023. However, we are now continuing to range for some time, which is usually a sign of a possible setback before a continuation. This setback could be beneficial for sustainable growth and further rises.
Zooming in, we can observe a range building since February 2024. This range has been respected multiple times so far, and it seems likely to continue. However, the small breach of the top looks somewhat like a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) and could be a signal of profit-taking by many traders. If we breach through the $440 level, we could see a change of structure if a candle closes below it. If this happens, it would confirm our analysis. Until then, we might see higher prices as this is technically still a bullish trend within this range.
Another small indicator supporting our view is the bearish divergence on the RSI. While RSI is a good indicator with a high win rate, it’s not infallible, so this scenario might not play out. Still, this seems the most likely outcome to us at the moment.
DOUBLE BOTTOM IN NATURALGASNatural Gas (NATGASUSD) 1 DAY Chart Analysis
Bullish Indicators Identified: Bullish breakout above the neckline of a double bottom pattern, previously acting as horizontal resistance.
Break of a falling trend line, signaling potential trend reversal.
Expanding Demand Zone: The broken structures suggest a new demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bullish continuation.
T arget Level: Watching for price movement towards the 2.10 level.
Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above 187.8 will confirm the bullish breakout.
Risk Management: make sure to put stoploss
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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