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BITCOIN: HISTORICAL CYCLES AND HEALING ROADMAP!THIS CHART IS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA In the first cycle, after the ATL, CRYPTOCAP:BTC took 532 days to break above it’s previous ATH. In the second cycle, it’s taken 546 days to break above its previous ATH. If history repeats itself, we could see a new ATH around 385 days from today, possibly by December 2024. ROADMAP FOR BITCOIN HEALING First Halving: July 9, 2016 546 days of the bull market! Second Halving: May 11, 2020 546 Days of Bull Market after Halving 3 Third Halving: April 25, 2024 (Expected) Likely to last 528 days to 546 days of bull market. Based on fractal analysis and chart data, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will reach its next bull market peak in September 2025. Subsequently, a shift back into the bear market is expected. Consequently, a decision to exit the market before September is considered, given that these projections are assumptions derived from fractal chart data. I hope this graph clarifies how BTC's long-term growth dynamics work. Only in a probabilistic approach, this concept is. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
12
"Bitcoin Halving: Your Complete Guide""Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing well. Without further delay, let's proceed to the chart." "The Bitcoin halving is a significant event in the cryptocurrency market, happening approximately every four years. It involves cutting the block reward for miners in half, reducing the new BTC supply by 50%. The next halving is expected in early 2024, occurring after 840,000 blocks, and will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block." "The hard-coded technical mechanism forms the foundation of scarcity, providing Bitcoin with its value proposition as verifiably finite digital gold. This comprehensive guide will delve into Bitcoin halving dates, their impact on price and mining, and why they hold significant importance." What is Bitcoin Halving? The Bitcoin halving refers to the periodic reduction by half of the block reward granted to miners for solving the cryptographic puzzle to add new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. This action effectively cuts in half the quantity of new Bitcoin introduced into circulation with each discovered block. Given the consistent reduction in supply alongside ongoing demand growth, these anticipated halving events typically trigger an increase in Bitcoin's market price over the subsequent 12–18 months. Bitcoin was ingeniously designed with a fixed and capped supply of 21 million coins, gradually released through mining rewards. The periodic halving events are crucial to gradually diminishing new issuance until the total supply cap is reached. This systematic reduction in inflation enhances scarcity in a predictable manner. Historical Significance and Market Impact Each Bitcoin halving event has historically brought about significant market dynamics. Previous halvings have resulted in increased demand and subsequent price appreciation for Bitcoin. The decrease in block rewards directly influences the available supply, frequently creating a supply-demand imbalance that propels the price upward. After past halvings, Bitcoin has undergone remarkable bull runs, culminating in new all-time highs. Implications for the Cryptocurrency Industry: The Bitcoin halving event carries several implications for the broader cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity and limited supply, positioning it as a store of value akin to precious metals like gold. The halving also serves as an incentive for miners to secure the network by contributing computational power, as reduced block rewards can potentially impact mining profitability. Furthermore, the event heightens investor and public awareness, drawing attention to the innovative nature of cryptocurrencies. Historical Bitcoin Halving Dates: November 28, 2012 — Block 210,000 mined (Reward decreased to 25 BTC) July 9, 2016 — Block 420,000 mined (Reward decreased to 12.5 BTC) May 11, 2020 — Block 630,000 mined (Reward decreased to 6.25 BTC) March 2024 (Estimated) — Block 840,000 mined (Reward expected to decrease to 3.125 BTC) Halving Price Impact Patterns: While various complex macroeconomic and sentiment factors contribute to Bitcoin's well-known price volatility, halvings have consistently preceded significant bull runs. Following the initial two halvings, BTC experienced substantial increases within 12–18 months. For instance, Bitcoin was valued at under $12 during the first halving in November 2012, soaring over 100x to approximately $1,150 by December 2013. The 2016 halving foreshadowed Bitcoin's remarkable 2017 bull run, reaching nearly $20,000. Just nine months after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs surpassing $64,000 before retracing to a lower trading range. This recurring pattern supports the notion that halvings shape Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles by significantly limiting new supply issuance while user adoption and demand continue to grow exponentially. However, accurately predicting the timing and magnitude of peak prices following halvings remains challenging due to the multitude of variables influencing market sentiment swings.
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
"Bitcoin Analysis Across Multiple Time Frames(First, let's have a look at the shorter time frame) Bitcoin (BTC) is currently operating within a bullish channel and has recently experienced a bounce off the support provided by the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average (MA). The cryptocurrency is presently trading within the Ichimoku cloud, accompanied by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a bearish divergence move. For a bullish trend confirmation, it is imperative for the bulls to regain momentum and achieve a decisive breakout above the horizontal resistance level, approximately around 38,000. Conversely, a sustained breakdown of the ascending trendline would suggest the potential for a short-term correction. In simpler terms, Bitcoin is following an upward trend, finding support at the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average. However, caution is advised as the RSI is signaling a potential bearish divergence. A clear breakthrough above the resistance at 38,000 would be a positive indicator for a bullish continuation, while a sustained break below the ascending trendline could indicate a short-term correction in the market. (Daily time frame) On the daily time frame, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a volatile pattern, characterized by both a breakout and subsequent breakdown. This fluctuation weakens the established support, emphasizing the importance of a conclusive breach of the 38,000 resistance level and the subsequent closure of a daily candle above it to solidify the support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the overbought range, suggesting an elevated market condition that may require a period of relief. This, coupled with the choppy price movement, raises the likelihood of a correction in the market. Key support levels to monitor are approximately 30,000 and 33,500, serving as local support. Until a decisive breakthrough and daily candle closure above the 38,000 resistance level occurs, caution is advised, as there is a heightened probability of a market correction, especially given the overbought condition signaled by the RSI. (WEEKLY TIME FRAME) Over the past weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a surge in price, entering a phase of notable price discovery and achieving new yearly highs by surpassing the previous consolidation range. Historical research reveals a consistent pattern of Bitcoin accumulation in past market cycles. The initial wave typically occurs shortly after Bitcoin hits its All-Time High in a market cycle, with prices swiftly moving away from that peak. The second wave transpires during the Bear Market's trough, as the price floor for that cycle is established and tested. The third wave unfolds post-cycle bottom, with prices showing an upward trend in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving. It's crucial to acknowledge that the previous market cycle experienced a significant correction following the third wave of accumulation, leading to a downward price trend until March of the halving year. Presently, Bitcoin has attained a High-Volume Node on the Volume Profile, indicating a zone with substantial potential supply or selling pressure. This observation underscores the importance of closely monitoring market dynamics and potential corrections in the ongoing bullish trend. Bitcoin has successfully converted prior resistance into a support level, leading to a period of consolidation as traders anticipate a potential breakout. Conversely, if Bitcoin is unable to solidify the former resistance as support, it may experience a decisive breakdown, reverting back to a previous trading range. After analyzing Bitcoin across various time frames, we have concluded that there is a significant likelihood of BTC ranging between approximately 33,500 and 30,000. However, in the long term, the outlook remains bullish. A similar pattern was observed in the last bull run, where a final substantial drop occurred, eliminating inexperienced and small traders, before the onset of the bullish market. Therefore, it is advisable to stay vigilant, adapt to Bitcoin's movements, and continue learning in order to navigate potential market fluctuations. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
"Stop Loss Essentials: Preventing Losses in Uptrends"Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice. Common Reasons Why Traders Lose Money Even in an Uptrend #Not Setting Stop-Loss: #Not Conducting Technical Analysis: #Going against the Trends: #Following the Herd: #Being Impatient: #Not doing Homework or Research: #Averaging on Losing Position: Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing? There are four major mistakes that most beginners make: 1. Excessive Confidence This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins. 2. Distorted Judgements While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place. 3. Herding Behavior The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically. 4. Risk Aversion Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses. Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages: - Anxiety - Interest - Confidence - Greed - Doubt - Concern - Regret ------------------------------------------------------------------ Lack of Discipline An intraday trader must stick to a proper plan. A full-fledged intraday plan includes profit targets, factors to consider, methods to put a stop loss, and ways to select the right trading hours. The trading plan provides a comprehensive overview of how trading should be executed. Also, you can keep a record of trades executed during the day with the performance analysis of each stock at the end of the day. Such records help you identify the weak areas in your trading strategy and correct them. It is very important to be disciplined as a trader, the proper discipline will help you minimize the losses and maintain your capital. Not Setting Proper Trading Limits In intraday trading, the success lies in managing the risk. You should pre-define a stop loss and profit target when entering intraday trading. This strategy itself is an important part of trading discipline and this is where most people fail. For instance, if you incur a loss in the first hour itself, you should shut down the trading terminal for the rest of the day. You should also have an overall capital loss limit in place, it will safeguard you against trading losses. Compensating for a Rapid Loss This is one of the common mistakes in the trading community. When a trader incurs a loss, he/she either tries to average a position or overtrades excessively to recover the loss. This further leads to a greater loss and put them into more trouble. Losses are a part of intraday trading, instead of overtrading, it is wise to accept the loss, analyze the strategy and make improvements from the next day. Heavy Dependency on Tips Nowadays, there are ample of intraday tips flowing everywhere on the digital media. It is a common phenomenon for a trader to rely on these external tips, however, this needs to be avoided. The best way to learn intraday trading is by gradually learning how to read charts, understanding structures, and interpreting results on your own. Many traders refrain from taking these efforts and because of this, they end up on the losing side. The Beyond App by Nirmal Bang provides deeper insights into the market, the technical research offered by Nirmal Bang is spot on. You can use that research for reference, however, nothing can beat practical experience. Not Keeping Track of Current Affairs The external news, events, and tragedies do have an impact on the stock market. Hence, it is important for an intraday trader to keep a track of the Indian as well as global markets. Even the performance of global markets has an impact on the movement of Indian markets. Make your trade after the news or event has been announced, do not try to speculate the market based on the news. There are even instances when traders do not have any sound trading strategy, they just make decisions based on gut feelings or emotions. One needs to remember that intraday trading in itself is a skill, it is not a gamble, it takes time to develop proficiency, you cannot expect rapid results. The above are some of the major reasons why intraday traders lose money, ensure that you are disciplined enough, stick to a proper strategy, analyze your strategy at regular intervals, and things will fall in place. we will discuss 3 classic trading strategies and stop placement rules. 1) The first trading strategy is a trend line strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the touch of strong trend lines, expecting a strong bullish/bearish reaction from that. If you are buying a trend line, you should identify the previous low. Your stop loss should lie strictly below that. If you are selling a trend line, you should identify the previous high. Your stop loss should lie strictly above that. 2) The second trading strategy is a breakout trading strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the breakout of a structure, expecting a further bullish/bearish continuation. If you are buying a breakout of resistance, you should identify the previous low. Your stop loss should lie strictly below that. If you are selling a breakout of support, you should identify the previous high. Your stop loss should lie strictly above that. 3) The third trading strategy is a range trading strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the boundaries of horizontal ranges, expecting a bullish/bearish reaction from them. If you are buying the support of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie below the lowest point of support. If you are selling the resistance of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie above the highest point of resistance. As you can see, these stop-placement techniques are very simple. Following them, you will avoid a lot of stop hunts and manipulations. What Is a Stop-Loss Order? A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a specific stock once the stock reaches a certain price. A stop-loss is designed to limit an investor's loss on a security position. For example, setting a stop-loss order for 10% below the price at which you bought the stock will limit your loss to 10%. Suppose you just purchased Microsoft (MSFT) at $20 per share. Right after buying the stock, you enter a stop-loss order for $18. If the stock falls below $18, your shares will then be sold at the prevailing market price. Stop-limit orders are similar to stop-loss orders. However, as their name states, there is a limit on the price at which they will execute. There are then two prices specified in a stop-limit order: the stop price, which will convert the order to a sell order, and the limit price. Instead of the order becoming a market order to sell, the sell order becomes a limit order that will only execute at the limit price (or better). Advantages of the Stop-Loss Order The most important benefit of a stop-loss order is that it costs nothing to implement. Your regular commission is charged only once the stop-loss price has been reached and the stock must be sold. 3 One way to think of a stop-loss order is as a free insurance policy. Additionally, when it comes to stop-loss orders, you don't have to monitor how a stock is performing daily. This convenience is especially handy when you are on vacation or in a situation that prevents you from watching your stocks for an extended period. 4 Stop-loss orders also help insulate your decision-making from emotional influences. People tend to "fall in love" with stocks. For example, they may maintain the false belief that if they give a stock another chance, it will come around. In actuality, this delay may only cause losses to mount. 5 No matter what type of investor you are, you should be able to easily identify why you own a stock. A value investor's criteria will be different from the criteria of a growth investor, which will be different from the criteria of an active trader. No matter what the strategy is, the strategy will only work if you stick to it. So, if you are a hardcore buy-and-hold investor, your stop-loss orders are next to useless. At the end of the day, if you are going to be a successful investor, you have to be confident in your strategy. This means carrying through with your plan. The advantage of stop-loss orders is that they can help you stay on track and prevent your judgment from getting clouded with emotion. 2 Finally, it's important to realize that stop-loss orders do not guarantee you'll make money in the stock market; you still have to make intelligent investment decisions. If you don't, you'll lose just as much money as you would without a stop-loss (only at a much slower rate.) Types of Stop-Loss orders Fixed Stop Loss The fixed stop is a stop loss order triggered when a particular pre-determined price is hit. Fixed stops can also be timed-based and are most commonly used as soon as the trade is placed. Time-bound fixed stops are useful for investors who want to provide the position with a pre-set amount of time to profit prior to moving on to the next trade. Only utilize time-based stops when positioned sized properly to permit major adverse swings in share price. Trailing Stop-Loss Order Trailing order caters to the capital gains protection of an investor, while simultaneously providing a hedge against any unexpected price downturns. It is set as a percentage of the total asset price, and the order to sell is triggered in case market prices fall below the stipulated level. However, in the case of a price rise, the trailing order adjusts automatically in tune with an overall increase in market valuation. Suppose, in a trailing stop-loss market, an order for execution is set if the price of a security falls below 10% of the market value. Assuming the purchase price is 100 an order to sell the security is executed automatically by an authorised broker if the price falls below 90. In case the share prices rise to 120, the trailing order stands at 10% of the current market price, which is 108. Hence, if prices consequently start falling after peaking at. 120, a stop-loss order will be executed at 108. It allows an individual to enjoy a capital gain of 8 (108 – 100) on his/her investment corpus. Stop-Loss Order Vs Market Order While a stop-loss order performs a sale of underlying securities provided the price falls below a prescribed limit, a market order is issued to a broker to conduct trade (both buying and selling) at the prevailing market price. Stop-loss orders are designed to reduce the risk factor, while market orders aim to increase liquidity in the stock market by eradicating the bid-ask spread difference. A market order is the most basic form of trade order placed in a stock market. Stop-Loss Order and Limit Order Limit orders execute a trade of stipulated securities if the price reaches a pre-set value. While a buy limit order facilitates the purchase of any securities if the price falls below the given limit, a sell limit order is executed if the price rises above the value. Limit orders are designed to maximise the profitability of an investment venture by maximising the bid-ask spread. It is in contrast to stop-loss orders, which are implemented only if the price is equal to the limit stated by investors, as a method of minimising losses in a bear market. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & follow for future educational ideas and trading setups.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
XAGUSD (SILVER) ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Traders, I trust you are doing great and getting reading for the new trading week. Here is my view on Silver. To begin with, I will draw your attention to the monthly chart. Based on where I plotted my monthly OB, go and look at your monthly chart. Price mitigated the manipulation. Hence the rally. If you measure that bullish candle that price mitigated on the monthly chart, note where it ends. Now come back to the daily chart and look at the kind of structure we have. It is an inverse heads and shoulders pattern. My speculation is that price will continue to rally to the weekly supply orderblock. You will also notice that whilst other USD pairs made massive moves last trading week, Silver didn't. Which means that we might get an explosion this week. There is just one suspicious thing... price formed a trendline liquidity, but I am still interested in taking the long as there are more confluences for a long than short. What do you think? Follow for more updates like this. Cheers, Jabari
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by jabariofafrica
WILL BTC BE ABLE TO CONTINUE THIS BULLISH RALLY? In the higher timeframe, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently encountering two significant resistance levels that it must surpass for a more bullish movement to materialize. Why is it so strong? it's a 446-day resistance In the daily time frame "After each significant or sudden movement, Bitcoin has exhibited a tendency to consolidate sideways." here we can see a bearish divergence in RSI also So what do you expect? LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT THE SHORTER TIME FRAME In the shorter time frame, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of this bullish pennant pattern and is currently in the process of retesting it. According to the technical pattern analysis, we can anticipate a potential bounce of approximately 15% to 17% from the current level. LET'S HOPE THIS IS NOT BEAR TRAP This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Short
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
7
AUDUSD ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Guys, I do hope the trading week has been fair to you. Now the breakdown of this pair. Let's start from the weekly, we have a bullish CHOCH on the weekly timeframe. Dropping to the daily timeframe, you will notice that we have buy-side liquidity (relatively equal highs) to hunt and the actual demand orderblock is below a swing low. (see annotations) You will notice that I marked my daily demand orderblock on the wick of the candle. That is because the wick embodies the manipulation that ran the sell-side liquidity (relatively equal lows). Follow for more updates. Cheers, Jabari
Long
by jabariofafrica
2
Part 1 - A Beginner's Guide to Breakdown TheoryThe Concept Of Supply & Demand The price movement of the security is the result of demand(buyers) & supply(sellers): If the supply is more than the demand, there are more sellers than buyers than sellers, which results in a price fall. If the demand is more than the supply, there are more buyers than sellers, which results in a price surge. If the demand equals supply, price consolidates in the range. Demands = supply This is an equilibrium area in which demand and supply are equal. The price forms the value area, where both buyers and sellers are equally satisfied with the current price movement. Neither buyer is looking for a price surge nor the bear is waiting for the plunge, at least for some time. The supply and demand are a deadlock or clueless about the upcoming dominance. Let's take an example to understand these supply and demand conditions: - The provided chart of TESLA shows a real-time example of the supply and demand effect on the price. In the beginning, Demand pressure was more than Supply pressure, and The stock started rising as buyers outnumbered sellers. As the stock price rose, some buyers started losing interest in purchasing more shares due to the high price. Eventually, the demand and supply pressures reached equilibrium. - At this point, both buyers and sellers were satisfied with the price movement, as the demand matched the available supply. At high prices, sellers began to take advantage of the situation by selling their stock, leading to a decrease in price. The supply of stock exceeded the demand, and buyers were unable to respond with further bullish moves. Elements Of The Breakdown Theory: (1) Value Area: As the name implies, the value area is the price zone where most trading activities happen. In the value area, buyers and sellers are satisfied and agree with the current price movement. Purchasers are Neither interested in the further price surge nor do sellers agree to a decline in the price during the equilibrium period. Value area includes two boundaries: Upper boundary: It represents the supply pressure, which stops the security of the price rise. If the stock crosses down the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bearish move. The price signals a weak structure if it fails to trade above the upper band for a long time. This structure is a bearish move. Lower boundary: It illustrates the demand pressure, which stops the security of the price fall. If the stock crosses up the upper band with volume, the price may be ready for a bullish move. The price signals a strong structure if it fails to trade above the lower band for a long time. This structure is a bullish move. (2) Excess: The excess price can be identified above the upper band and below the lower band. It shows a clear rejection of a certain price level and it reacts as support and resistance levels. It indicates the intuition of long-term traders. The price spends minimal time outside the value area. It tends to reverse its direction and move back inside. It can create an opportunity for traders to sell above and buy below the value area. For example, the price falls below the lower band but then reverses the movement. Traders can take advantage of this by buying the security with a tight stop loss, aiming for targets up to the upper band or potentially higher. - The provided chart depicts the daily timeframe of SHREECEM stock from May 1999 to July 2001 . During this period, SHREECEM experienced four excess at the upper boundary and three at the lower boundary of the value area. At 3rd excess of the lower boundary, buyers couldn't respond by a strong bullish move, and sellers rule the movement by supply pressure. How to draw value area/ Equilibrium? Step 1 : Obtain a price chart of the tradable instruments(stock, commodity or forex, etc.) with a suitable time frame. As per my observation, daily and, or lower is better. Step 2 : Look for an area on the price chart where the price is moving within a specific range. Step 3 : Mark the trading area with the highest trading activity with good volume, which will be marked as a value area. Step 4 : Mark the area with relatively low trading activities where the price couldn't stay for too long at a certain level, which will be marked as excess. Step 5: Clearly separate the value area from the excess price areas to visually distinguish between the two. Step 6 : Observe the repetitive up and down movements within the value area. Step 7 : Extend value - boundaries rightward on the chart. Observe how price reacts near boundaries for future insights. Example 1: - AAPL has formed five price excesses, two above the upper and two below the lower boundary. After selecting the chart, I separated the excess from the price zone. - Generally, We need to find a price range where most prices touch the upper and lower boundaries. Any prices above the upper boundary or below the lower boundary are considered excess. Example 2: - In another Apple chart, the price has formed three excesses. The first excess happened when bulls couldn't overcome the volume of sellers and ended up losing momentum. The second excess occurred when sellers were unable to break below the lower band and lost their strength. At the third excess, AAPL couldn't generate bullish volume, and sellers dominated the selling. Finally, the price fell to the lower boundary, and bulls responded with a massive volume. Demand exceeded supply, and sellers were outnumbered. Example 3: - In the hourly timeframe chart of AMZN, the stock was experiencing a downward trend and entered a consolidation phase. Two excesses were observed, one at the upper boundary and the other at the lower boundary. - At the second excess, bulls responded with a sharp decline, but they were unable to maintain their momentum above the upper band. This lack of sustainability in their upward move increased the confidence of sellers, leading them to drive the price down for a longer duration. Sellers increased the supply and pushed the price of AMZN down with a gap and strong volume. Example 4: - It is the EURUSD 4-hour timeframe chart. EURUSD has more than nine price excesses, with five above the upper boundary and four below the lower boundary. The 5th excess marked the most significant response from buyers, countered by sellers. Subsequently, the length of the excesses decreased. - At the 9th excess, the buyers' initiative to push the price above the upper boundary couldn't be sustained, as the sellers' trading volume exceeded that of the buyers. In the next part, we will delve into the other components in more detail. Creating an article that caters to both beginners and experts can be quite challenging and time-consuming. However, if you would like the next part to be available sooner, please show your support by hitting the like button. Your encouragement will motivate me to continue writing and sharing valuable insights. Thank you for taking the time to read!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Money_Dictators
16
The Timeless Abyss of Trading: The Greatest Trap Of All-timeI am here with a unique topic. It is about a psychological trading trap called the cycle of doom. What got me interested in this psychological topic? Well, there are very few articles about it. You can count them on one hand, and more than 90% of traders are losing money. Most traders find their method of trading. What stops them from becoming profitable traders? Tradingview platform is one of the biggest charting platforms that provide an educational section and editorial peak for traders to sharpen their knowledge related to technical analysis, trading methodology, trading psychology, etc. As a trader, we are making market memories by improving screen time, practicing technical analysis, analyzing option data(if applicable), and a lot more. Why do we still fall short in applying in real time? What stops us from becoming a profitable trader? Something looks missing out! I would like to draw your attention to the psychological trap cycle of doom, a topic discussed by only a few traders. Let me be clear, I do believe that this topic is universally applicable! The cycle of doom is made up of three phases: The search The Action The Blame "Sun Tzu said Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril." In order to exit from the loop of the cycle, we have to understand the parts of the cycle. 1) The Search: Probably, it's the first phase of the cycle. Just recall your initial stages of trading. You were finding a trading strategy to make money out of the money. You may have asked to friend, watched a YouTube video, read an article on Tradingview, bought a book or course or indicators, or purchased the strategy. At that time, you were entered into the cycle. Additionally, we should never trade for enjoyment but treat it as a business. The statement does not apply to the initial stages. Trader explores new methods, theories, and systems. Postulate, Trader A uses X theory to do their day trading for a living, and you were impressed and took it to put your money on it, or you found the method by yourself. The trader will switch his next position after finding a system that is convenient for his trading and trusts that he can take minimal risks to achieve expected returns. 2) The Action: The Action phase is the second phase of the cycle. Now, you have a trading system that will make your money grow to expected returns. This phase can be super exciting for traders as they believe he has an edge and is most likely a key to opening a present of unrealistic returns. Issues arise when a trader employs their strategy without supporting evidence, like backtesting results. Your heart may be pounding, and your fingers may be trembling like a child, but it doesn't mean you should directly trade the strategy without checking the results, failure, and performance of the system. Just five percent of traders actually test a trading system before putting it into action. You might discover that the trading system performs well for a prolonged period. Suddenly, a drawdown appeared! At a certain point, everything may seem bleak. While profits might flow in initially, eventually, the losing trades start to accumulate. It's a red signal for traders that their trading system is now on oxygen. I don't think traders can trust the system after a big streak of losing traders. You have entered into the blame phase. 3) The Blame: The Blame is the final stage of the cycle. As we discussed, the trader has lost their trust in his trading system, which was a holy grail for him at the initial stage. The Red portfolio hurts more than a break-up. The trader is not happy with the system as it has wiped out the gain + trading capital, and the trading system is the only cause that affected the profit and wants to remove the system and search for a new strategy. 4) Loop of the cycle: As can be seen, the trader again finds a new strategy and makes an effort and action on it, then blames the system. The cycle repeats and traps the trader in this way. How to get out of the cycle? 1. Modification is the only way to survival & Trust the system: Traders should modify their strategy according to market conditions, instruments, and trading style. Maybe not everything works for everyone. Therefore, traders should do this according to him. For example, I use Elliott wave theory as the first base and price action as a confirmation tool along with different indicators according to the situation. I do modify Elliott and price action as per my observation of price moves and wavelength. 2. Backtesting is the holy grail: Choosing trading theory also depends on traders' mindset, risk-aptitude, and expected return. Scalpers will never check the PE, P/S, or EV/EBITDA ratio of the firm just because of their duration and risk-reward calculation. After choosing an appropriate trading strategy, traders should backtest their trading strategy before doing real-market transaction. We have the advantage of backtesting tools, algo, and virtual account, which was not available for pit traders. 3. Risk management: Already many ideas are available on this topic. The trading system should be giving proper returns as per the taken risk unless it is nothing more than Drilling a well in the desert. I need more time to write a full idea on the escape of the cycle of doom. Thank you! @Money_Dictators
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Money_Dictators
14
AUDCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Guy, It's another trading week and I want to share my view on AUDCHF with you. Legggoooo!!! If you take a look at the monthly timeframe, you will notice that price just reacted from a monthly orderblock. If you drop down to the weekly timeframe, you will notice that price had created a bearish CHOCH and has retraced to the weekly supply OB from which we can expect a bearish continuation. You may also notice that we are currently at the neckline of the M pattern on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, you will notice how price just took out a strong supply zone which caused a strong drop in price. You can also notice the W pattern and we should expect a retracement. Now, I am monitoring price movement in the 1-hour timeframe to see if I can get my trade setup to go short. Endeavor to keep this pair on your radar. Follow for more updates like this. Cheers. Jabari
Short
by jabariofafrica
NZDCAD ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVE (RISKY)Hello Guys, I would just point out briefly why I will take this trade if my setup appears despite it being risky and I will also share why I think it is risky. Why is it RISKY? If you go on the weekly chart, you will notice there was a W pattern and price retraced and printed the continuation of the W pattern which should likely make us reach for higher prices. Which means that price could break above my daily OB. Why will is still take the trade? This is because we also have a W pattern on the daily that needs retracement and also we just retraced to the supply orderblock which caused a bearish CHOCH on the daily chart. I will take the short trade if I see a clear bearish CHOCH on the 1hour chart. Do you think it is a risky trade? Follow for more updates like this. Cheers, Jabari
Short
by jabariofafrica
2
Part 1: Equity Derivatives - A Beginner's GuideWhat are derivatives? Basic interpretation : something which is based on another source. A derivative is a contract or product whose value derives from the value of the base asset. The base asset is called the underlying asset. i.e., Sugar prices will rise if sugarcane prices increase due to low production. It means sugarcane is the underlying asset of sugar because the value of sugar is associated with sugarcane. There is a broad range of underlying assets: Metals: lead, gold, silver, copper, zinc, nickel, tin, etc. Energy: coal, natural gas, etc. Agri commodities: corn, cotton, pulses, wheat, sugar, etc. Financial assets: Stocks, bonds, forex, etc. There are two types of derivatives: 1. Exchange-traded: A standardized derivative contract, listed and traded on an organized exchange. 2. Over-the-counter/off-exchange trading/pink sheet trading: A derivative product in which counterparties buy or sell a contract or product at a negotiated price without exchange Instruments of derivatives market: There are four instruments in the derivatives market: 1. Forward: Forward is a non-standard agreement or agreement between two parties that allows you to buy/sell the asset at the agreed price for a pre-decided date of the contract. Forwards are negotiated between two pirates, so the terms and conditions of the contract are customized. These are called over-the-counter(OTC). 2. Future: Future contracts are similar to forwarding contracts, but the deal is made through an organized and regulated exchange rather than negotiated between two counterparties. A futures contract is an exchange-traded forward contract. 3. Options: A derivative contract that gives the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a stated strike price on or before a specified date. Buyers of options- Pays the premium and buys the right Sellers of options - Receives the premium with the obligation to buy/sell underlying assets. 4. Swap: A swap is a derivative contract between two counterparties to exchange for the cash flows or liabilities from two different financial instruments. It is an introduction article. I will cover all these topics in detail. Swap helps participants manage risk associated with volatility risk interest rate, currency exchange rates, & commodity prices. Index: Index = Portfolio of securities An Index shows how investors experience the economy. Is it progressing or not? A Stock market index gathers data from a variety of companies of industries. The data forms an overall picture and helps investors compare market performance through past and current prices. Financial indices represent the price movement of bonds, shares, Treasury Bills, etc. Importance of Index: 1. An index is an indication of a specific sector or gross market. 2. It helps investors to pick the right stock 3. An index is a statistical indicator. It represents an overall change or part of a change in the economy. 4. In OTC & exchange-traded markets, It used as an underlying asset for derivatives trading 5. An index helps to measure for evaluation of portfolio performance. 6. Portfolio managers use indices as investment benchmarks. 7. Index illustrates investor sentiments. Types of index: There are four classifications for indices: Equal Weighted Index: Each company is given the same weightage in the composition of this index. Equal-weighted indexes are more diversified than market capitalization-weighted indexes. This index focuses on value investing. Free-float index: In finance, equity divides into different among various stakeholders like promoters, institutions, corporates, individuals, etc. A tradable stake for trading is called a free-float share. i.g, If XYZ company has issued 5 lakh shares with the face value of Rs 10, but of these, 2 lakh shares are owned by the promoter, then the free-float market capitalization is Rs 30 lakh. Free-float market capitalization: Free-floating shares * Price of shares Index: BSE SENSEX Market capitalization-weighted index: In this index, each stock is given weightage according to its market capitalization. High market cap = High weightage Low market cap = low weightage Market Cap= Current market price * total number of outstanding shares i. e, if XYZ company has 1,000,000 outstanding shares and a market price of 55 rs per share will have a market capitalization of 55,000,000. Index: Nifty 50 Price Weighted Index: High price = More weightage Low price = Low weightage Popular price-weighted index: Dow Jones industrial average & Nikkei 225 I will upload the second part soon. Show your love with likes and comments. Thank you :) Money_Dictators
Education
by Money_Dictators
4
CADSGD ____ INCOMING BULLISH MOVEHello Traders, We have a situation whereby there are multiple confluences for this bullish move. To start with, on the monthly chart, we can see that price is retracing while forming an 'M' pattern which will complete at the monthly demand orderblock which is a 'W' pattern. This simply means that we should expect bullish price movement. On the weekly chart, we have an unmitigated demand zone and the price is approaching this level while creating an 'M' pattern. The expectation is that the price will mitigate this zone and rally. On the daily timeframe, you will notice there is a demand orderblock that is yet to be mitigated. This orderblock is also in alignment with the equilibrium price level of the weekly demand orderblock. This pair is on my radar and my alert has been set. Waiting for the price to trade into that zone. Follow for more updates like this. Cheers, Jabari
Long
by jabariofafrica
EURCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHey Guys, Longtime since I made a post. Been busy with personal stuff. I do hope trading has been profitable for you. Now, what you will notice on the weekly timeframe is a bearish CHOCH and price on the daily timeframe is approaching the weekly supply orderblock while creating a 'W' pattern. Once price trades into the supply orderblock, I will be interested to see if my trade setup will form so I can take a short trade. Keep this pair on your radar. Follow for more updates like this. Cheers, Jabari
Short
by jabariofafrica
NZDCHF ____ INCOMING BEARISH MOVEHello Guys, NZDCHF traded into a WEEKLY OB and formed a bearish CHOCH on the daily timeframe. The expectation would be that once price trades into the daily OB (this happened on Friday) price would continue to the downside. Now that we are price has traded into the daily OB, I would like to see how price unfolds in the 1-hour timeframe. If I see a CHOCH on the 1-hour timeframe, I will go short. Follow for more updates like this. Cheers, Jabari.
Short
by jabariofafrica