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NZD/USD Approaching SupportNZD/USD has moved steadily lower since it came into contact with a descending trendline, risk orientated assets are facing several head winds at the moment. These include the Evergrande situation, rumblings of potential ''bubbles'' in stocks and housing and the growing realization that the fed will not continue its unprecedented monetary policy indefinitely. While hawkish developments and rhetoric propelled the $NZD higher it is also the the unwinding of these extremely hawkish expectations that are contributing to the move lower. With all this in mind the NZD/USD is approaching a confluence of horizontal support and a rising trendline which is a parallel taken from the 4th of Aug high to 3rd Sep high, stochastics is oversold. This area may not necessarily cause a reversal as the fundamental picture will determine that, however it should at least cause some consolidation. Depending on how the fundamental picture and various risk factors unfold this will definitely be an interesting area to watch for a potential breakout or reversal. *Not a recommendation to buy or sell, simply for educational purposes*
by MarkE
ETH An example in why retail traders are wrong!Good Morning traders! Today I have a great example of order protection and liquidity building. This is something that I have been speaking about for a long time and this current PA shows it well. The blue boxes show places where large orders have been placed and and initiated moves. See how price returns to retest these areas?! this gives the Banks, Whales and big players a chance to protect orders. Retail traders place orders outside of these areas "support and resistance areas" These orders can easily be seen, and therefore hunted. The highs and lows create areas for the big players to exit the large volume positions as every buy order needs a seller and vice versa. I hope this information has been helpful. As always trade safe. EnvisionEJ
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by EnvisionEJ
3
The importance of sticking to the plan 👊👌As traders we are our own worst enemies! A common theory with trading is as follows. 10% is having a good strategy, 30% is having good risk management and the final 60% is psychology. If we as traders fail to address the final psychology part of the sentence above then we as traders will fail in the markets. The chart shown in this idea is EURGBP working the 30 minute time frame. The strategy is a rules based mechanical approach working a 1:1 RR to fixed stop loss and take profit targets. I know I have a proven edge with this strategy as with all my ideas the built strategy tester report is at the foot of this idea shows the strategies credentials. Position sizing is correct I trade this strategy on a stand alone account for this pair and I'm happy to risk 2% per trade of my capital from said account. So where does the psychology part come in to all this? The emojis on screen show the emotions I would of been feeling with this trade once upon a time! An emotional roller coaster! The chart shows three trades. A short which hit TP followed by a long which hit SL. Then the trade I'm using for this idea which lasted a full 13 days! But this is where sticking to the plan and the rules I set help remove that emotional roller coaster. Not sticking to that plan could of created many outcomes. I could of closed for less profit than intended as part of the plan or worse still could of cut my losses only for the trade to go on and hit TP target. The above would of then led to more emotions thus effecting my future trading decisions and choices. With each trade I enter I am comfortable with said outcome whatever that maybe. That comes from trading a proven strategy, having correct risk management and then by sticking to the rules of the trading plan for the strategy. Sticking to a plan removes any subjectivity and helps take care of the psychological side of trading. I even automate my strategies now and not checking trades every minute of the day has helped removed all those up and down feelings the emojis on the chart represent. I'll end with one final thought patience has to be part of your plan. The markets take from the impatient and give to the patient ones among us. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Editors' picks
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
38
price action patterns you need to know ( part 1 ) Hi friends i'll share with you some price action patterns you should know . I don't like posting a picture with 100 patterns . I would like to post this in steps so that you can understand more and make things clear . 1- ascending triangle generally happens in an uptrend and is a bullish pattern , you can set your order after the breakout of the horizontal line with a good volume candle . - descending Triangle Pattern is the exact opposite of the ascending triangle pattern. It is a bearish continuation pattern indicating that the prior downtrend will continue and you set your order after the brakout of horizontal line with a good volume candle . please support me with like and follow me for more ideas and tell me what do you think about that
Education
by Diamond_Chart
💡🎓 Dow Theory & Bitcoin 🎓💡To share awareness for the beauty and history of our art of Technical Analysis of financial markets, in this educational post, I look at the six fundamental principles of Dow Theory, applied to Bitcoin and its current macro/local trends. Dow Theory Principles; 1. Markets Discount Everything 2. The Market has 3 Trends 3. Major Trends have 3 Phases 4. Markets must Confirm Each Other 5. Volume must confirm the Trend 6. A trend is assumed to be in effect until is shows clear signals it has reversed [Below is a summary of who Charles H. Dow was and his impact, by John J. Murphy; “ Charles Dow and his partner Edward Jones founded Dow Jones & Company in 1882. Most technicians and students of the markets concur that much of what we call technical analysis today has its origins in theories first proposed by Dow around the turn of the century. Dow published his ideas in a series of editorials he wrote for the Wall Street Journal. Most technicians today recognize and assimilate Dow's basic ideas, whether or not they recognize the source. Dow Theory still forms the cornerstone of the study of technical analysis, even in the face of today's sophisticated computer technology, and the proliferation of newer and supposedly better technical indicators. On July 3, 1884, Dow published the first stock market average composed of the closing prices of eleven stocks: nine railroad companies and two manufacturing firms. Dow felt that these eleven stocks provided a good indication of the economic health of the country. In 1897, Dow determined that two separate indices would better represent that health, and created a 12 stock industrial index and a 20 stock rail index. By 1928 the industrial index had grown to include 30 stocks, the number at which stands today. The editors of The Wall Street Journal have updated the list numerous times in the ensuing years, adding a utility index in 1929. In 1984, the year that marked the one hundredth anniversary of Dow's first publication, the Market Technicians Association presented a Gorham-silver bowl to Dow Jones & Co. According to the MTA, the award recognized "the lasting contrbution that Charles Dow made to the field of investment analysis. His index, the forerunner of what today is regarded as the leading barometer of stock market activity, remains a vital tool for market technicians 80 years after his death. Unfortunately for us, Dow never wrote a book on his theory. Instead, he set down his ideas of stock market behavior in a series of editorials that The Wall Street Journal published around the turn of the century. In 1903, the year after Dow's death, S.A Nelson compiled these essays into a book entitled The ABC of Stock Speculation. In that work, Nelson first coined the term "Dow's Theory." Richard Russell, who wrote the introduction to a 1978 reprint, compared Dow's contribution to stock market theory with Freud's contribution to psychiatry. In 1922, William Peter Hamilton (Dow's associate and successor at the Journal) categorized and published Dow's tenets in a book entitled The Stock Market Barometer. Robert Rhea developed the theory even furtherIn the Dow Theory (New York: Barron's), published in 1932. Dow applied his theoretical work to the stock market averages that he created; namely the Industrials and the Rails. However, most of his analytical ideas apply equally well to all market averages. “ John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis for the Financial Markets, 1999, Page 23-24 What are your thoughts? yemala
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Yemala
7
Insanity... the thing most traders do (intro)This is a short intro to a major problem traders face... in a longer video, coming out tomorrow most likely, I will explain more on how to stop being an "insane" trader and take control of your trading results by working on the most important person in (your) "room", which is YOU! Just how important are YOU to yourself? take any picture where you are with the people you love the most and look at it, the person you will first search in the picture is you... so I rest my case. Anyway, this video might wake you up a little, if it doesn't the full version will!
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by PrimedGroup
Part 3 - How to identify Trend Reversal | Trading PlanOnce you have successfully identified previous Price action with Market Structure and SMCs you can now look for potential Entries with the highest possible rewards. For Bearish Trend: Fib is drawn from Swing high to Swing low For Bullish Trend: Fib is drawn from Swing low to Swing high. It's always important to go with the trend and to avoid trading when market is under consolidation. When making entries, always focus on The main market structure and LTF Market flow. When recent Swing high and swing lows are broken Market flow can be shifted. And you can have a bullish market flow within a bearish market structure. Always trading in corrdination of both. It's important to understand when to enter the market and its even more important to understand when to exit the market. You can use LTF key levels such as demand and supply zones as your target levels, or else you can also use fib levels as well. Confluence is always the key. If you have any doubts and further questions, leave a comment below and i will address them.
UEducation
by DCFX-TA
5
Candle stick every beginners should know . ( part 4 )today i'll share with you the most famous candlestick pattern everyone should know. part 4 we will start with the Rising Three Methods Pattern . It is a five candlestick pattern observed during a bullish rally and its indicates that bullishness would further continue in the market . second , Falling Three Methods Pattern It is a five candlestick pattern observed during a bearish rally. This pattern indicates that bearishness would further continue in the market. third the dark cloud cover appear in the uptrend and It indicates the possibility of a price reversal ( short ) . please support me with like and follow me for more ideas
Education
by Diamond_Chart
2
The Evergrande Crisis ExplainedIn this post, I'll be providing an easy yet comprehensive explanation on the Evergrande crisis, and why it's important for us to understand the situation. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. What is Evergrande? - Evergrande is China’s second largest property developer, founded in 1996. - To understand the size of this company, here are some numbers: - Evergrande is running more than 1300 projects in over 280 cities. - They’ve had success with real estate, so they also expanded horizontally, acquiring an electric vehicle company as well as Guangzhou F.C. - They own a lot of other smaller companies, but their main focus and main business is in the field of real estate. The Problem with Evergrande - The main problem with Evergrande is its liabilities. - The only thing you need to understand is that the company is in a lot of debt - specifically, $310 Billion. - The company is also going through hard times with insolvency issues, and underperformance in terms of revenue. - When the Chinese government put a list of companies that could pose a threat to the market and lead to its collapse, Evergrande was also on the list - It was also recently revealed they begged the government for help in their backdoor listing plan as well. Evergrande's Stock and Bond Prices - Overall, Evergrande's stock fell close to 90% from its all time high levels, and over 80% since the beginning of this year - The company’s dollar bond’s price has also dropped over 70%. - What’s also concerning is how the bonds of Evergrande’s real estate counterparts are also dropping sharply, and signaling a potential crash. Evergrande's Debt - Out of Evergrande’s $310B debt, about $85B comes from bonds and loans from banks. - These are the liabilities for which Evergrande actually pays interest on. - $67B comes from shadow banking systems; money from shady sources. - The rest of the $158B is actually the most important part. This is the amount of accounts payable. - When Evergrande is does business and they’re developing real estate, they need to buy the materials and resources needed. - But when they bought whatever they needed from their suppliers, they didn’t pay in cash. - It all went down as accounts payable, which basically means that they owe the suppliers money. The Anatomy of a Market Crash - Financial institutions and suppliers rely heavily on Evergrande, and a lot of companies could go bankrupt if they’re not paid. - This is essentially a domino effect of the entire Chinese market, with Evergrande at the center of it. - Not only that, we also need to think of Evergrande’s employees. - The company has over 123,000 employees alone, and that doesn’t include the number of construction workers who are hired for each of their projects. China's Real Estate Market Situation - China's real estate market is the biggest in the world - The market also accounts for 10% of China's entire economy. - Taking this into consideration, a complete collapse would cause devastating repercussions to not only the Chinese economy, but also the stability of the CCP, and the global economy as well. Why the Chinese Government is Capable of Bailing Evergrande Out - If we take a look at the numbers, it could also be said that they might get a government bailout. - While their liability amounts to $310B, the interest they actually need to pay imminently, amounts to $669m - This is also still a lot of money, but much more manageable than $310B. - So while Evergrande is having a hard time with insolvency, if the government were to help out just a little bit, they might just be able to get back on their feet. - And with investors gathering up in front of the Evergrande building and the probability of a political risk increasing, $669m might be a small sacrifice for the stability of the regime. China's Indirect Intervention - The Global Times, a media that directly reflects the stance, position, and opinion of the Chinese government, said that Evergrande was "not too big to fail". - But, China’s central bank injected $14B in cash in Sep. 17, and another $15B today through Open Market Operations (OMO). - And since the liquidity they provided was the most they’ve done in the past 8 months, it’s safe to say that they had Evergrande in mind Expert Opinion on the Matter - Michael Burry, founder of Scion Capital LLC, shared a tweet by @INArteCarloDoss, who states some important points. - The 3 redlines, which are the debt related restrictions, began last year. - China has been lifting the real estate market by leveraging a lot of debt, and the government wants to deleverage. - It’s almost certain that Evergrande’s bankruptcy is a matter of time, but the question is how severely other companies and financial institutions will be affected. - Of course the Chinese government will provide liquidity in the market, but won’t directly intervene and solve the problem for Evergrande. - Overall, it could be said that Michael Burry agrees with this thread that says Evergrande’s bankruptcy is inevitable, and that the Chinese government will indirectly intervene, if it does decide to intervene at all. - So a crisis in some form will certainly take place, it’s a matter of the degree to which it takes place. - On the other hand, we have @BaldingsWorld - Christopher Balding is a professor at Peking University - His logic is that we won’t see a financial crisis because we’re applying the logic of the free market to a country’s market that is actually completely under control of its government. - So this professor believes that a bailout for Evergrande is inevitable. How to Prepare for a Potential Crash - Since nothing is set in stone yet, the best we can do as investors is to keep my eyes open and look at how the Chinese government might directly or indirectly solve the issue. - Depending on how the situation deteriorates, increasing one's cash holdings might be prudent in case the US stock market also is affected. - This is especially important as the S&P500 index is currently testing the 60 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily. (chart below) Conclusion Evergrande's debt situation might have greater implications than we can anticipate. Regardless of whether the Chinese government intervenes or not, and whether it does in an indirect or direct manner, there will be repercussions to the Chinese economy. As such, it's important to keep an eye on how the situation may unfold and affect the US stock market as well. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
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HKEX:3333
by Michael_Wang_Official
121
Candle stick every beginners should know . ( part 3 ) Hi friends , today i'll share with you the most famous candlestick pattern everyone should know. part 3 we will start with the morning star . this pattern appear in the downtrend and It indicates the possibility of a price reversal ( long ) second , the evening star appear in the uptrend and It indicates the possibility of a price reversal ( short ) third doji / spinning top / high wave appear in the downtrend and the uptrend and They considered as reversal candles . please support me with like and followe me for more ideas .
Education
by Diamond_Chart
4
Triangle Patterns - Advanced AnalysisChart patterns describe distinct structures in financial time series. Their occurrence helps technical analysts predict future price variations. Triangle patterns form a part of the most studied patterns by technical analysts and have been well documented over the years, with some even applied to climate time-series data (1). In this post, we perform an analysis of ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles patterns. We provide a description of each pattern and its implications, as well as a model of the price variation within each described pattern. We also review the literature in order to find their deterministic cause. To knowledgeable investors, chart patterns are not squiggles on a price chart; they are the footprints of the smart money. - Bulkowski (2) 1. Ascending Triangles Ascending triangles are characterized by a series of rising local minima (higher lows) and a series of local maxima staying at a relatively fixed level. A line is drawn from the rising minima, forming an upward sloping support line. Another line is drawn from the maxima, forming a horizontal resistance line. The apex represents the point where both lines intersect. Ascending Triangles have a bullish bias. Once the price breaks the resistance line we can expect a rapid increase of the price. This breakout is often accompanied by an increase in volume, while the volume prior to the breakout was declining. Note that this is not a pre-requisite. Example of ascending triangle on CALX daily. 2. Descending Triangles Descending triangles are characterized by a series of declining local maxima (lower highs) and a series of local minima staying at a relatively fixed level. A line is drawn from the declining maxima, forming a downward sloping resistance line. Another line is drawn from the minimal, forming a horizontal support line. Descending Triangles have a bearish bias. Once the price breaks the support line we can expect a rapid decrease of the price. Like ascending triangles, this breakout is often accompanied by an increase in volume, while the volume prior to the breakout was declining. Example of descending triangle on CORN daily. 3. Symmetrical Triangles Symmetrical triangles are characterized by a series of declining local maxima (lower highs) and a series of increasing local minima (higher lows). A line is drawn from the declining maxima, forming a downward sloping resistance line. Another line is drawn from the minima, forming an upward sloping support line. Both support and resistance lines should have an approximately equal slope. Symmetrical triangles do not have a particular bullish or bearish bias, and are sometimes used to indicate market uncertainty. The expected outcomes depend on where a breakout is occurs. If the price breaks the resistance, we can expect an increase of the price, while a breakout of the support can be followed by a decrease of the price. Example of symmetrical triangle on PFO daily. 4. Pattern Modelling Describing price variations within patterns with a general mathematical formulation can help us describe more complex occurrences of the patterns. Consider the price within a valid triangle as y'(t) , with support S(t) and resistance R(t) . We can describe y'(t) as follows: y' = S + A × (R - S ) + e with A(t) approximately periodic and in an approximate range (0,1) and e(t) as noisy component. We can see that A(t) is subject to linear damping (the amplitude of price variations within the triangle tend to reduce linearly over time). This model is very general and can be further developed, but it can be used as the basis for assessing the validity of triangle patterns in the next section. 5. Pattern Validity The validity of a triangle pattern can depend on a wide variety of factors and can change from analyst to analyst. The price concentration around the support/resistance should be relatively even, that is price should fill the triangle (as described by Bulkowski). Bulkowski strongly suggests at least two minor highs and two minor lows should be inside the triangle formation. An additional filter is introduced by Bulkowski, the 5% failure , suggesting that a breakout should have a relative distance superior to 5% from the broken line in order to avoid reversals. Our previous model can be used to determine the validity of a potential triangle pattern. The apex angle is directly related to the magnitude of A(t) and e(t) , with lower angle values returning a lower signal to noise ratio. This is bad since A(t) is an essential component for the structure of the triangle. If A(t) ≈ e(t) then we cannot validate the presence of a triangle pattern, since it is more likely to have been the result of noise. 6. Measure Rule The measure rule allows anticipating the magnitude of a breakout. This allows the trader to easily set take profit/stop losses, which enables a higher control over the risk a trader would be taking trading a triangle pattern. For ascending triangles the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the value of the resistance minus the first local minima inside the triangle. For descending triangles the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the value of the first local maxima inside the triangle minus the support value. For symmetrical triangles, the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the highest local maxima inside the triangle minus the lowest local minima inside the triangle. We can see that for ascending and descending triangles, a breakout of the non-horizontal line would imply a weaker breakout the closer the price is to the apex. In fact, the breakout magnitude would decay linearly. This is also true for symmetrical triangles. This is mentioned by Fisher (3): - The more the price moves to the very end of a triangle, the weaker will be the breakout in either direction. 7. Theoretical Explanation Of The Occurrence Of Triangle Patterns Explaining the presence of patterns in financial time series is a challenging task. Under a purely efficient market the presence of patterns would simply be the realization of random fluctuations. A more challenging question would be: "how could market participants cause triangle patterns?" If we assume that market participants cause the patterns, we know from the pattern descriptions that a mechanism inducing damped oscillatory variations exists. This oscillation is explained by Caginalp and Balenovich by two groups having asymmetric information/opinions (4). Certain analysts describe triangle patterns as a temporary control switch between sellers and buyers, with scenarios being determined by the amount of energy exhausted by buyers and sellers. 8. Conclusion In this post, we provided a description of triangle patterns. We highlighted the link between the signal-to-noise ratio and the apex angle of a triangle in order to determine its validity, as well as the measure rule for predicting the magnitude of a breakout. We finally briefly mentioned the theoretical explanation behind the occurrence of triangles patterns in the market. This subject is complex and lacks further research, we highly recommend reading Caginalp & Balevonich on the subject. Bulkowski offers an extensive number of statistics regarding triangles in his encyclopedia of chart patterns. 9. References (1) Kaiser, J. (2016). Chart Pattern in Climate Time Series Data . Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal. (2) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns . John Wiley & Sons. (3) Fischer, R., & Fischer, J. (2003). Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and chart pattern trading tools: a synergistic strategy to enhance profits and reduce risk (Vol. 209). John Wiley & Sons. (4) Caginalp, G., & Balevonich, D. (2003). A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis . Capital Markets: Market Microstructure eJournal.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by LuxAlgo
60
Why shouldn't we rely on others when trading?Two traders can enter at the same price, one taking buys trade, the other one a sell trade. Only one can profit, right? Nope. The price can move both ways at different points of time from the initial entry, and both traders can profit. On the other hand, a desperate premature exit can cause both traders to lose. So, it is a matter of your own trading system. Remember, it doesn't matter if your edge is the total opposite of other ones as long as, you comply with your system. The entry, as well as the exit, should be well worked out. An exit strategy that will yield profits in the short term, can give heavy losses in the long term. So, the exit strategy is quite important.
Education
by PrabuddhaPeramuna