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BXY In A Bullish Wedge After Test Of Support The Pound index forming a bullish wedge on the daily chart after retesting support. Front running bulls have already entered low-risk trades tight on support but will the pattern hold? As a bull myself in the long-term, I am focused more on upside potential than downside; although downward moves are key to entering long. It may not happen now, but I am anticipating a break of this pattern following some good herd immunity news from the UK. London has also the mayoral vote in the coming months which will also have some impact on London stocks, and no doubt some pound forex too. - Buy at support - Buy low - Keep a tight and well-managed stop loss - Targets above at resistance levels - Hold for a break near the apex
TVC:BXYLong
by Youza
CRYPTO - BTC - The Wyckoff Method #2Wyckoff Method Application: Hello everyone, I spotted another great application for the Wyckoff Method, this time using Distribution Schematic #2. I caution bulls, as I believe that we are at the end of an exuberance phase and now Reward and Risk have inverted for Longs! I personally think that the price can go sub 10k very quickly, and 20k~ is a likely bottom. Trade with care... But without further ado, Here we go! 5 Step Approach to the Market: 1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. - Currently swinging bearish, and I believe I have determined the whale operating on this market's trade setup: 2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. - Bitcoin is a leading indicator for the crypto market, but it is led by investors' risk appetite. I am bearish on the market, and I believe that US10Y yields will hit 2% again in the nearest future (which inverts the market, and consequently, the crypto market): - My previous Wyckoff Idea (RIOT) being validated to TP1 gives me further confidence in my logic tree of assumption, and gives me the conviction to add to short positions on the previously powerful bull market: 3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. - I have high conviction that (a) BTC has ended its uptrend and is currently in a distribution phase, and (b) I speculate that the macro trend is about to reverse. - My minimum objective is to use BTC as a leading indicator for crypto related instruments. DXY: 4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. - TA shows that the stock is ready for a move to the downside (I won't be sharing all of my tells). 5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. - I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future: Three Wyckoff Laws: 1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction. 2. The law of cause and effect. 3. The law of effort. Analyses of Trading Ranges: - Trading ranges ( TRs ) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand . Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR . Wyckoff Schematics: - A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR . Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR , which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend. Nine Buying/Selling Tests: FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart. 1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️ 2. Activity bearish ( volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️ 3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️ 4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️ 5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️ 6. Lower highs. ✔️ 7. Lower lows. ✔️ 8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️ 9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️ “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) I encourage you to join me in being a lifelong student of the market. If you like this idea, please Like, Follow, and Leave a Comment! GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
15
Introduction to Dow TheoryThe Dow Theory is the core of contemporary technical research. Its premises have stood the test of time and underpin the study of market behavior research. The basic principles of Dow Theory and their importance in today's markets will be discussed in this article. Origins and History of the Dow Theory Many of the early studies that contributed to what is now known as Dow Theory is credited to Charles H. Dow. Dow's successor, William P. Hamilton, continued to establish and organize many of Dow's initial early publications, including the Wall Street Journal editorials written at the turn of the twentieth century. Robert Rhea, a Hamilton student, was later responsible for categorizing, refining, and formal codifying Dow's fundamental principles, which were set out in Rhea's book The Dow Principle. In 1884, Dow reported an 11-stock stock market average, which he later extended into a 12-stock Industrial Index and a 20-stock Railroad Average. Instead of attempting to gauge market activity by individual stock movement, Dow decided to build an index of stocks that would better represent the aggregate action of the markets. The averages' movement was intended to serve as a barometer of the overall business environment. Since then, the 12-stock Industrial Index has morphed into the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which now contains 30 stocks. Market trends according to Dow Theory Robert Rhea explains in this book that three distinct patterns are considered to prevail in the market according to Charles H. Dow. 1. Primary trend – that lasts from months to years 2. Secondary reaction (intermediate trend) – weeks to months in duration 3. Short term trend – days to weeks The Primary trend The primary pattern is by far the largest, and it is typically predicted to last months to years. Main trends, according to Rhea, are less vulnerable to distortion and therefore provide a more accurate indicator for investment decisions. There are 2 types of primary trends: primary bull trend and primary bear trend . An uptrend is described in Dow Theory as a series of successively higher highs and lows. The concept "downtrend" refers to a sequence of lower highs and lows. Primary trends have 3 phases. A primary bull or bear trend consists of these 3 phases: a) Accumulation phase b) Trending phase c) Distribution phase Accumulation usually happens after a sharp and fast drop in values, usually as a result of companies releasing extremely negative results. At this point, the uninformed market participants are normally incredibly bearish, selling whatever shares they have left at any amount. Market investors who are well informed and trained continue to buy shares at incredibly low levels. The uptrend and downtrend phases make up the trend process. After a sustained and dramatic rise in prices, distribution usually occurs. Both newspapers and news reports are extremely bullish, and businesses appear to outperform. Uninformed market traders are prone to being too bullish, buying up whatever shares are available in the market at any expense, a condition known as excessive exuberance. Margin debt is at an all-time high. During the distribution process, smart investors begin to liquidate shares steadily, taking care not to push down rates too fast so that they can continue to sell at higher prices. The secondary trend or reaction The secondary trend or reaction moves or reacts in the opposite direction of the existing primary trend. It normally lasts a few weeks to three months, but it can last a little longer in some cases. The secondary reaction typically retraces one-third to two-thirds of the spectrum of the primary trend. Any retracement or reversal of more than two-thirds of a percent on big volume typically suggests that the secondary response is a new primary bear market. Dow Theory further emphasizes the value and psychological meaning of the 50% retracement stage, which is a viewpoint held by another influential technician, W. D. Gann. The minor trend Minor patterns aren't taken into account in Dow Theory. “The stock market is not rational in its fluctuations from day to day,” Hamilton wrote in his book The Stock Market Barometer. Minor patterns will last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
TVC:DJIEducation
by financialflagship
29
PMs - PLATINUM - Fractal ApplicationIntroduction to Fractals: Although prices may appear to be random, they actually create repeating patterns and trends. One of the most basic repeating patterns is a fractal. Fractals refer to a recurring pattern that occurs amid larger more chaotic price movements. - Taken from Investopedia Fundamentals Notes: - Initially, inverse correlation with stock market, but Platinum reaps the benefits of industrial use in clean energy strategies, we foresee a decline in the stock markets until EOY, and recovering early 2021. PMs' technicals seem to support this sentiment. - Interestingly, there was a consolidation and accumulation period from 2015-2019, and the automatic rally from the last sell-off in March 2020 was used as a spring to achieve new local highs, but this type of pattern typically results in a decline, once distribution has ended. - However, we are in a greater trend, and while it seems that we have entered a higher channel, volatile sell-offs can be seen as bearish , and we believe the decline will continue once the short squeezing wash-out is over and retail excess diminishes, and support will be tested before further decision. I posted a forecast previously, but I liked the Fractal Application, so I decided to make it its own idea. Link: My Wyckoff Method Application post, which this strategy builds on: GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
TVC:PLATINUM
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Educational ContentIn this example, we can see that this is a typical trend continuation move. 1. Bullish impulse leg, followed by a "Consolidation before breakout". 2. For those who trade with SMC = Smart Money Concept, you will identify the breakout zone as an ORDER BLOCK . 3. Prices made a Swing High, followed by a "FALLING WEDGE" pattern, forming liquidity beneath the minor swing lows while approaching the ORDER BLOCK . 4. 1st Buy Entry would be at "OB1 - PRIMARY ZONE". 5. 2nd Buy Entry would be a classic "Breakout Retest" retail trading technique. This is how you combine Retail Logic with Smart Money Concept.
Education
by SharkAcademy