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Supply Zone & Volume (Educational Psot)Hello Traders, here's an educational post about a supply zone. You don't need to overcomplicate the things a valid supply area is found in trending markets with a sell Order Flow volume very strong. price is making higher lows and lower lows. as you can see at some point price will push the price down. An area with a large amount of sell-orders is called a Sell-Zone, and it has very specific boundaries as we will see. This zone can be considered an area where a large of Sell-OFV was transacted at the origin. The only way the downwards move that occurred could have been created is by the triggering of a large amount of Sell-OFV at the origin of the movement. Somebody important decided that it was EXPENSIVE TO THEM, so they transacted huge volumes of sell-orders. This is area is a great deal for a seller and a terrible deal for a buyer. If the price come back to that level , be sure that they can continue pushing the price down.
Short
by AIRFOREXONE_
27
⭐ PSYCHOLOGY of TILT⭐ ⭐ LOSING TILT ⭐Hi, My friends! Let's go Forward to knowledge💪🏻Today i made psychological EDU post for You😊 Psychology of Tilt: Losing Tilt Reaction 1. The desire to recoup with increased risk It's difficult to find a market player, who has never had a strong desire to recoup and didn't go on rash actions because of this. When we using the term "tilt" most often we mean precisely this reaction. We can say, that it's the main variety of tilt. And that was given the greatest attention in scientific research, including the desire to recoup is the basis of pathological gambling. Among the factors contributing to the emergence of the desire to recoup can be identified: 📌- Dispersion of the game 📌- Bet size 📌- game speed 📌- Frequency "near misses" The last factor needs clarification. “Near Missing” (near misses) is the outcome of a bet in which the player was defeated, but was close to winning. “Near misses” are less pleasant for a person, than losing without a chance of winning, but at the same time cause a desire to continue the game. 1. Explanation through the theory of perspectives According to this theory, the function of the subjective value of wins and losses has a specific form, and after losing a person falls into that area of the function, which is characterized by a desire for risk. This is easier to show on the chart. Suppose, after losing, the player gets to point A. Due to the features of the left side of the function, any further loss (further movement to the left side) will have less subjective significance for it than a gain (reverse movement to the right side) of the same size. And since potential gains become more significant than potential losses, the desire for risk increases. This function of subjective value is an empirically established pattern. Features of the perception of losses and wins are also characteristic of a person's perception of other phenomena. In other words, a person’s perception of gains and losses in the manner described by them is simply a property of the human psyche. Thus, the desire for risk after losses caused by such a perception is also simply a certain basic characteristic of a person. 2. Explanation through a player error. Player error is a common misconception in understanding random events. A person who is prone to this error believes that the more often a random event occurred in the past, the less likely it will happen in the future and vice versa. This mistake is based on the belief that random manism should not generate extended series of the same type. Due to this mistake, the player after a series of failures will consider that the probability of his future wins has increased and as a result will continue the game with special persistence. It is difficult to argue that the player’s mistake contributes to the desire to recoup with an increased risk. 3. Explanation through the threat of "I". The emerging threat of "I" causes various protective reactions. One of these defensive reactions is the desire to recoup with increased risk: quickly returning the lost money, the player will retain the idea of himself as a fairly strong plus player. It is also worth considering that the threat of “I” is a well-known trigger of anger. And anger mobilizes a person’s energy, instills in him a feeling of confidence and strength, and prepares for an attack. Summing up the consideration of various approaches to explaining the desire to recoup with an increased risk, it is worth noting that these approaches are not mutually exclusive. They rather complement each other. In other words, most people may indeed have some basic tendency to increase risk after losing, which is reinforced by the player’s mistake and perceiving the loss as a threat to “I”. Reaction 2. A sharp risk reduction Not all players are characterized by an increase in risk after a significant loss. Having suffered serious losses, some traders can continue trading, but use only the most reliable strategies, Speaking about the desire to recoup, they almost always assume that this desire is associated with increased risk. However, it is important to understand that lowering the risk does not necessarily mean a complete rejection of attempts to recoup. A reason for avoiding risk after a defeat may be a hot hand fallacy error. A “hot hand” error is another misconception in understanding random events. The essence of the error lies in the fact that after observing a long series of events of the same type, people cease to believe in random outcomes and predict that a series of events of the same type will continue. As a result of this mistake, a player after a series of defeats may begin to think that under the circumstances, his chances of winning are objectively underestimated (“they started a twist against me”) and make a logical decision about the need to reduce the risk. I hope you enjoyed my post. I tried hard for you💋 Stay with me😉 Love you♥️ Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
18
Have You ever dreamed to become a popular trader?😊Hello, Have You ever wanted to become a popular trader? Have you ever wanted to become famous like Jesse Livermore or, say, Larry Williams? Or do you think that success loves silence? Scientists have calculated that, to one degree or another, 70% of people dream of fame (at least sometimes). That's, by the way, is a natural part of socialization. Here is what the famous American sociopsychologist Orville Gilbert Brim, who studied the nature of fame and ambition, received: 📌 2% of people dream of becoming a celebrity is their main life ambition; 📌In another 30%, the desire for fame is among the main desires; 📌 for more than 40%, the idea of becoming famous appears from time to time; 📌And only the rest (which is less than 30%) do not care about fame. So if we take three traders, then two of them will dream of becoming the "powerful trader" about whom will make legends. Is it good or bad? 🧐 Evolutionarily, the desire for broad personal fame is a socio-psychological mechanism aimed at improving the human race. Great people drive progress, and society rewards them with emotional benefits - reverence, worship, etc. In theory, everything should be cool. In reality, the pursuit of fame can take various forms: 🔎constructive ambition; 🔎non-constructive vanity; 🔎various pathologies. For example, if you wanna be one of the famous millionaire traders, ambition can be a good motivating fuel and will help you grow professionally. But the lust for fame can also ruin a trading career. The problem is, that you can't become a famous trader right off the bat. Let's be frank: worldwide fame is for few. Even in order to gain professional recognition in a narrow circle, you have to work hard. And then the subconscious begins to throw in options, insidiously whispering: "It's okay, that you lost three deposits, took five credits for trading and lose 11 times out of 10. Start a YouTube channel and tell everyone how cool you are!"😉 There is no benefit from such activities. Success is doubtful, and in the worst case, you can even earn the fame of a bla-bla man and be known as an unwise person. But even this is not the most harmful thing. The main problem is that the pursuit of fame is a waste of time and effort. 🔥 A trader chasing emotional illusions ultimately reduces his chances of becoming a professional and gaining real recognition. 🔥 The desire for fame corresponds to the fourth stage of Maslow's pyramid - this is one of the forms of the need for respect / reverence. I already made a post on this topic, I'll leave a link for those who have not seen👇 But it happens that the thirst for fame grows out of completely different needs. Such pathologies include: 🔎Lack of love, which a person tries to compensate with popularity. 🔎The conviction that fame will solve all existing financial, household, social problems. 🔎 Feelings of inferiority. 🔎 Revenge arising from feelings of inferiority. 🔎Envy. In all these cases, there is a substitution of pathological adequate ambitions in life. And the pursuit of fame in an attempt to satiate jealousy, raise self-esteem, etc., takes away resources that could be used to achieve really important goals. 🙏 "I was just doing my job" 🙏 Real recognition comes when a person is on the seventh step of Maslow's pyramid, symbolizing the need for self-actualization. Simply put, is engaged in life's work. One beats, beats to achieve fame, while the other just works quietly, creates, does something there - and recive glory on a silver platter. Although he may not have expected it at all. In general, everything is simple: do the job, and the rest will follow. By the way, psychologists warn that if the desire for fame becomes the leading motive of activity, then it's - "blocks creativity and destroys personality." This doesn't mean, that you are forbidden to dream about how you will become a famous trader. But this dream should not be the main one, or only one. By the way, how can a trader become famous? From whom take an example? After all, the paths of glory are so different. For example, you can gain fame: 🔥demonstrating inspiring examples of the play of the mind and the ability to rise after defeat, like Jesse Livermore 🔥revolutionizing stock trading like Charles Doe and Edward Jones; 🔥breaking stereotypes, like Linda Raschke, who became one of the first tough women traders; 🔥becoming a champion in trading and writing a bunch of books like Larry Williams; 🔥deceiving Hitler and becoming one of the main figures in CME history like Leo Melamed ... 🔥And some are overtaken by the glory of Herostratus - like, for example, Nick Leeson, who in one fell swoop swung over a billion and ruined Barings Bank, which entrusted him with money management. I wish each of You - happiness to do something, that really brings You joy, because: SUCCESS IS NOT THE KEY TO HAPPINESS, HAPPINESS IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS! If you love what you do, you will be successful! Always keep it in Your mind and don't forget about Rocket Bomb 🚀💣 💙💛
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
16
Using MA on BTC's example!Hi! Moving averages are one of the most popular technical indicators. They have various types, but they have one purpose - to determine the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Let's look how MA works on price movement of BTC! The crossing of the slow MA by the fast one from bottom upwards gives a signal to buy, from top to bottom - to sell - The simplest form of a moving average is known as a simple moving average (SMA). It is found by calculating the arithmetic average prices for a certain period of time; - Exponential Moving Average (EMA) assigns more weight to the latest data, which is why it is more preferable; - The main functions of moving averages include identifying trends and pivots, as well as support and resistance levels; - Moving average can be a risk management tool. Thanks to it, you can set a stop loss and cut a losing position; - The most popular moving average signals are their intersection with the price or their intersection with each other; - Crossing of the moving average price upwards gives a signal to buy, downwards - to sell; - Moving average signals can be false when pairs are trading in flat or when a gap forms; - Moving averages should be combined with various indicators and oscillators. So their signals will be more accurate, which will lead to the opening of profitable positions. Hope My post was helpful for You♥️ Stay tuned by Rocket Bomb 🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
14
The Link Between Inflation, Rising Bond Yield, & Market Sell-offAggravated by Jerome Powell's speech at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit, the tech-led sell-off continues, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall by 1.11%, S&P 500 by 1.34%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.11%. On that note, the 10-year Treasury yield also popped to 1.541% during Jerome Powell's speech, later closing at that level for the day. But how, specifically, did Jerome Powell cause the market to sell-off yesterday? Let's find out. Prior to Jerome Powell's speech, there were already a substantial amount of tension surrounding the bond market and concerns regarding inflation. A key event occurring recently that brought a great deal of attention to the acceleration of rising bond yields were the sudden spike in 10-year Treasury yield back in 2/25/21 from 1.38% to 1.54% - temporarily jumping as high as 1.6%, when an auction of US$62 billion 7-year notes was met with weak demand. This rattled the stock market because investors were not ready for the velocity of the 10-year Treasury yield surge. Instead, they were expecting for yields to gradually inch higher throughout the year. In an effort to pinpoint the exact reason for the surge, many conclusions were drawn. One of which relates to inflation concerns. Over the course of the pandemic, trillions in fiscal relief has been delivered, of which an addition $1.9 trillion in fiscal package is expected to come from the Biden Administration. With so much money printed and nowhere to flow yet due to economic lockdown as a result of the pandemic, investors fear that once the economy reopens again, pent-up demand will drive people to go on vacation and spend in masses, injecting all the printed money over the course of the pandemic into the economy all at once, driving inflation up at a rate that has not been seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Due to this belief of a looming inflation, it makes bond that are purchased currently potentially worthless because of possible subpar yield. As a result, people flock away from bonds at the moment because they are expecting that yields will rise going forward in order to compensate for inflation risk. Thus, yields are continuously being driven up. However, with the sudden spike in yield, it creates uncertainty around whether we will be seeing an acceleration of rising bond yields and possibly indicate that inflation could be around the corner. The possibility of this scenario is further amplified by vaccination efforts contributing to a recovering U.S. economy, and the incoming $1.9 trillion fiscal package that could further inflate the economy going forward while pushing the economy further into the recovery. Taking all of this into account, let's go back to Jerome Powell's speech. Having understood all of these, investors were looking at Jerome Powell to see whether he would give any indication on how he plan to control the acceleration of the rising bond yield, perhaps through an adjustment of the Fed's asset purchase program, where they will step up on the purchasing of long-term bonds to drive down long-term interest rates, or even extending the Supplementary Leverage Ratio that will be expiring on 3/31/21, so that banks can further help with the purchase of long-term bonds. However, in his speech, Jerome Powell said nothing of the sort, in which the market took as a signal that yields could rise further, triggering the sell-off even further, and driving the 10-year Treasury yield further up to a level that matches the initial 10-year Treasury yield spike back in 2/25/21. In fact, Jerome Powell made supposedly positive remarks stating that he expects the rise in inflation as the economy recovers to only be temporary, that he does not expect the move up in price to be long-lasting nor does he expect it to be enough to change the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, among others. With the market sell-off and surge in yield during his speech, it is clear that the market neither believes his words nor views it positively. To conclude, we are now in a very volatile situation where stocks no longer just goes up. We cannot control the direction of the market, but what we can control is how we deal with this situation emotionally and monetarily. Don't get too hung up on the short-term bearishness of the current market condition because if you zoom out your chart, in the grand scheme of things, this is just a tiny bleep. As such, if you believe that we will eventually recover from this market sell-off, use this as an opportunity to buy into your favorite companies at a huge discount. Invest safe. This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence! Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
TVC:US10YEducation
by AntrePoint
How to set-up alternatives in your portfolio to dampen volTo start off, diversification is an investor's best friend and most handy tool. When thinking about long-term investing or even if you are a day trader trying to protect all your gains without just sitting on the sidelines, one must implement alternative investment strategies in order to stay afloat and provide some stability to their portfolio. To do such a thing, I would have 5 to 15% of your overall account value in cash ready to place these hedges. I will list 4 options to improve your portfolio's downside protection with #1 being the least risky and the most highly recommended for all types of investors, #4 being the riskiest and only recommended for those with large risk appetites. 1. A market-neutral fund: This is a fund that tries to hedge risk with an investment mix consisting of short and long positions. I would suggest this to every single investor no matter your risk tolerance. I suggest a 5% position. BTAL is a good option that I use. If you have mutual funds, CVSIX is the way to go. 2. An income-generating alternative fund: This is a fund that not only employs an alternative strategy but also pays a monthly dividend to allow for you to make new moves each month, padding other positions that have reached new lows as the bearish market conditions and turbulence continues. Now mind you, this is still giving you exposure to big holdings that have downside potential but you are in it for the dividends and strategies outside of equity. I would suggest a 5% position. JEPI is the best option, OUSA is the second-best in my opinion. JEPI sells call options in its strategies allowing for additional horsepower on the downside without you having to be monitoring a put or call option constantly. 3. Inverse ETFs: These are ETF's that are inversely correlated to the overall index. When the market zigs, these zag. For example, SPXS is 3x leveraged to the downside of the SPX while SQQQ is triple leveraged to the NDX, so when the index is down 1%, the etf is up 3%. I would only suggest 1 to 2% in each of these. I would avoid shorting the DJI because the average yield of the Dow Jones is still safe in comparison to the 10-year treasury bill. 4. Selling Calls against existing holdings/buying puts If you have holdings you really like but do not want to get rid of, you can sell call options against them. You have to have at least 100 shares for each single contract you sell. This is much more advanced and is only recommended to those who are savvy or fearless. Essentially, you say "Sure, if this stock hits this price, I will sell you my 100 shares at that price". The higher a strike price of the call that you sell, the less premium you will collect because the probability of it actually reaching that price is much lower. So for instance, if you bought 100 shares of a stock at $20, and it's now trading at $30, you sell a call at the $35 strike price for those $100 shares for $50 bucks; now there's two ways this plays out. (1) the stock hits the $35 strike and you get $3,500, locking in a $1,500 gain on your stock ($20x100=$2000) or you can always chose to buy it back if you think the stock is still going higher. OR (2) you collect that $50 bucks upon expiration if the stock doesn't hit $35. Buying a put would be to profit from a stock going down; so for a really easy example, a put on the QQQ would be extremely similar to buying the inverse etf SQQQ because in both scenarios, the investment vehicles go up when the Nasdaq goes down. You essentially are placing a bet that the stock is going down. The nice thing about this is you don't have to put up a 100 shares as collateral for each contract and that your loss is predefined. So if you buy a put option expiring April 1st on the QQQ for $150, you max loss is $150 bucks. On the other hand; the market crashed and the option hit in the money; you could be looking at anywhere from 100 to 600% return. This in turn is used as dry gun powder on that terrible red day; same with your other alternatives. They can be thought of as placeholders of your buying power for when the sh*t hits the fan. What's worse than seeing a firesale day full of top-notch opportunities and having no buying power? Nothing. Be very cautious with buying puts and even more cautious with selling calls. I'm still long the market! Btw if you want to play the DJI which should outperform the other two major indices; check out UDOW for 3x and DDM for 2x leverage. Happy trading
AMEX:UDOWLong
by EBITDAtiger
2
How to set the RIGHT Stop loss!Hey hey traders!! Setting the "right" stop loss is a vital skill, yet for many traders... its a random act. This video will help you find stcutrue in setting the right stop loss, a stop loss that has the best chance of not being hit and allowing your trade to workout! For us that comes down to basics: 1. Use the ATR value 2. Enter only via the fibs (definite entry) and by following this process we have achieved great things so far, even increased our win ration by a solid 12% in February (since we added it) If you have questions, feel free to ask! All the best and good luck trading!
Education
by PrimedGroup
THE SINE WAVE MARKET THEORY TO PREDICT TOPS AND BOTTOMSOkay, let's get straight to it. In physics and mathematics, a sine wave or sinusoid is a mathematical curve that describes a smooth periodic oscillation. Key Points: You only need to understand 3 concepts about a wave: Waves are described using the following terms: Peak – the highest point above the rest position. Trough – the lowest point below the rest position. Time period – the time taken for a full cycle of the wave. Usually measured from peak to peak, or trough to trough. Source: BBC Let's apply it in the financial markets: Peak = Top Trough = Bottom Time Period = The time taken for a complete market cycle. TRUTH IS YOU DON'T NEED FANCY INDICATORS. Using these three key information, you can detect the top and bottom of any market given it forms one full cycle. Apply it and backtest it. Lemme know your surprises.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by filagotnochill
44
Trading with WRONG Expectations #4... Trading is Easy Money...The above statement is true, but only from a certain point of view... I only need to trade a few minutes every hour, I work from home, I have no daily commute and I have uncapped earnings. This is all correct. What people don't see is the amount of time and commitment involved in getting to this point. My trading journey has taken hours of study, practice, losses and frustrations - it has not been an easy journey. Read the quote below from As a Man Thinketh... 'Seeing a man grow rich, they say, "How lucky he is!" Observing another become intellectual they exclaim, "How highly favoured he is!" And noting the saintly character and wide influence of another, they remark, "How chance aids him at every turn!" They don't see the trials and failures and the struggles which these men have voluntarily encountered in order to gain their experience; have no knowledge of the sacrifices they have made, of the undaunted efforts they have put forth, of the faith they have exercised' Conclusion... Trading is not easy, nor will it ever be. Anything worth achieving is hard, whether that is success in trading, business, marriage or fitness! This is a universal principle of success.
Editors' picks
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
14
How Risk Reward Works ? (Educational Post)Hello Traders Before continuing make sure you follow this profile. Let me start off with a scenario that many - if not all has been through. Have you ever had a series of great trades, only to have one trade to burn your whole capital? It's probably everyone - and a guilty embarrassment that many do not want to admit. It's not bad - it's a learning process. AIRFOREXONE is here to talk about how to effectively use stop losses. If you are not using stop losses - you are essentially gambling. You need to learn how to preserve your capital at best. A stop loss is an absolutely vital tool allowing you to limit your losses when you are trying to increase your probabilities using technical analysis . In my opinion, calculated risk is never going to be 100% risk free; however, It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe (or safer, haha!). Using a stop loss is like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong (which can most definitely happy), you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe (again, keyword being large). Now let's Talk about risk reward: Now, how do you place a stop loss? You are assuming that anyone can just use the stop loss tool and adjust the percentages and risk reward ratio to their likings, right? Wrong. You need to know how to place your stop via proper technical analysis , which is discussed below in a simple manner. Assuming you have a good probability set up, a stop loss allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes. Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. This is also absolutely wrong. Again, it is ABSOLUTELY wrong. Many traders argue to get 90%-100% of winning trades. How to place your stop loss: and have a Risk Reward that will make you money? Place your stop loss according to the market price level according to the suggested ratio of 2:1 as shown in the above diagram. Why 2:1? The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade, according to your trade setup. You never want to take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1. A RR of 2 and more is one of the key factors in order to become successful in trading. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 80% of winning trades - that is phenomenal. Note that the bigger your risk reward become = more chances to fail and lose less you have. the opposite happens when you risk to win less.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by AIRFOREXONE_
28
BITCOIN OR ANY MARGIN TRADED COIN - HOW TO SCALP TRADE Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, HOW TO SCALP LIKE A PRO - NO BOTS, NO SCRIPTS, JUST UNDERSTANDING HOW THE INDICATORS CAN BE USED. As the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short) , you are NOT going to laugh at this strategy... BECAUSE USING THIS... YOU... YES YOU... will be laughing all the way to the crypto bank!!! HA HA HA... I hear you... this works! And the strategy is FREE, no paid course, and simple to use! WHAT YOU NEED 9 AND 21 EMA (EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE) 100 AND 200 MA (MOVNG AVERAGE) A MARGIN/LEVERAGE TRADED ACCOUNT. PAID TRADINGVIEW PREMIUM VERSION ALLOWS YOU TO SET AN ALERT ON THE CROSSING OF 9/21 EMAs - I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AS IT WILL PAY ITSELF OFF IN NO TIME!!!!! These trades are best on 15min chart as it gives stronger confirmation on the direction. They are also best when 100/200MAs are situated above or below the wave formation. When MAs are tight to wave formation there is a high risk of entering a scalp as the direction is uncertain. Always wait for confirmation of the 15min EMA indicator cross. YOU MUST USE A STOP LOSS!!!!! Scalp trades at any time are high risk as the market direction is not confirmed in correction zones. It is a way to make DOLLARS in an uncertain market, as you can see on the chart, trades are flipped LONG and SHORT as the EMAs cross. As explained and you can see in the example it is a higher risk when MAs are crowding the waves. Be careful of over-margining/over-leveraging your trade, as the margin for any error can be affected with any wave move. FOR BEGINNERS - I recommend commencing paper trading your entries and exits to gain confidence without risking your capital to commence with, we want you to be successful and making $$$ ************************************************ When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!! SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3 THE ONLY WAY TO MAKE MONEY - IS TO MAKE YOUR OWN!!!
Education
by LisaNEdwards
80
Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)Introduction In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021. Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making. In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically: -------- "To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall." -------- I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market. (Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.) Trade 1: After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels. The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do. The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest. Trade 2 The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily). A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level. I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style. Trade 3 After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed. The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable. Trade 4 This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand. Right at breakout view: Nearing PT 2, premarket highs: To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign. After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade. There are 3 key takeaways: 1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time. 2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc. 3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :) Have a great day and I wish you well. -Granolabar
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
4
Review of the Eurusd (signal and education)hi kids . This chart shows the entire descending path and the end of the fall Also, the analysis that has been done on the euro since the beginning of the fall is below the post. All predictions by the fundamental method. Classic and explore the waves In this chart you can see that the end of the growth of the euro was predicted at the peak In this chart, in the classic review, it was stated that if the canal floor is broken, at least to what point will the price fall continue? Classic reasons were also updated in this chart Finally, in this analysis, the reasons for the need for a complete function from the point of view of wave study were stated Good luck
Short
by sabbaghzade69
You Would Be Profitable Trader After Master This Education PostClassic Chart Pattern's ------------- Reversal Charts Pattern's Double Bottom -- A double bottom pattern is a technical analysis charting pattern that describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action. The double bottom looks like the letter "W". The twice-touched low is considered a support level. Inverse Head And Shoulder -- Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. This pattern is the opposite of the popular head and shoulders pattern but is used to predict shifts in a downtrend rather than an uptrend Falling Wedge -- Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs. Double Top --- Double tops and bottoms are important technical analysis patterns used by traders A double top has an 'M' shape and indicates a bearish reversal in trend A double bottom has a 'W' shape and is a signal for a bullish price movement. Head And Shoulder --- Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. This pattern is the opposite of the popular head and shoulders pattern but is used to predict shifts in a downtrend rather than an uptrend Rising Wedge --- A true head & shoulders pattern doesn't occur very often, but when it does, many technical traders believe it's an indicator that a major trend reversal has occurred. A standard Head & Shoulders pattern is considered to be a bearish setup and an "inverse" head & shoulders pattern is considered to be a bullish setup. Falling Wedge --- The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slope s down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout occurs. Bullish Rectangle --- The bullish rectangle is a continuation pattern that develops during a strong uptrend. Once the pattern is established, a break to the upside would imply a continuation of the bullish trend Bullish Pennant --- A bullish pennant is a technical trading pattern that indicates the impending continuation of a strong upward price move .This makes the bullish pennant pattern particularly sought after, as it can offer an early indication of significant upward price action Rising Wedge --- A true head & shoulders pattern doesn't occur very often, but when it does, many technical traders believe it's an indicator that a major trend reversal has occurred. A standard Head & Shoulders pattern is considered to be a bearish setup and an "inverse" head & shoulders pattern is considered to be a bullish setup. Bearish Rectangle --- The bearish rectangle is a continuation pattern that occurs when a price pauses during a strong downtrend and temporarily bounces between two parallel levels before the trend continues. Bearish Pennant --- What is a bearish pennant? A bearish pennant is a technical trading pattern that indicates the impending continuation of a downward price move
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GoldenEngine
25
BTCUSDT - bull trapYesterday there was a false breakout! super beautiful example! I will tell you below what a false breakout is! False Breakout Patterns False-breakouts are exactly what they sound like: a breakout that failed to continue beyond a level, resulting in a ‘false’ breakout of that level. False breakout patterns are one of the most important price action trading patterns to learn, because a false-break is often a very strong clue that price might be changing direction or that a trend might be resuming soon. A false-break of a level can be thought of as a ‘deception’ by the market, because it looks like price will breakout but then it quickly reverses, deceiving all those who took the ‘bait’ of the breakout. It’s often the case that amateurs will enter what looks like an ‘obvious’ breakout and then the professional’s will push the market back the other way As a price action trader, you want to learn how to use false breakouts to your advantage, rather than falling victim to them. Here are two clear examples of false breakouts above and below key levels. Note that false breakouts can take different forms. Sometimes a false break will occur with a pin bar pattern or a fakey pattern as the false break, and sometime not A false breakout is essentially a ‘contrarian’ move in the market that ‘flushes’ out those traders who may have entered on emotion, rather than logic and forward thinking. Generally speaking, a false-break is happens because amateur traders or those with ‘weak hands’ in the market will tend to enter the market only when it ‘feels safe’ to do so. This means, they tend to enter when a market is already quite extended in one direction (and it’s about ready to retrace) or they try to ‘predict’ a breakout from a key support or resistance level too early. Professional traders watch for these missteps by the amateurs, and the end result is a very good entry for them with a tight stop loss and huge risk reward potential. It takes discipline and a bit of ‘gut feel’ to know when a false-break is likely to occur, and you can never really know ‘for sure’ until after one has formed. The important thing, is to know what they look like and how to trade them, which we will discuss next…
by Yuriy_Bishko
30
eurusd short The following text contains the reasons for the falEurusd It is declining until it creates a positive divergence. Also, when wave b is shallow from 1, it is not possible for wave 2 to be shallow its Harmonic Eliot Waves So the reasons for the fall: 1- Creating bullish divergence in 4-hour timeframe. 2-Harmonic Eliot Waves says we need a deeper correction 3-Classically, the uptrend occurred with the weekly resistance and also the uptrend line was broken. Therefore, the most reliable support that can prevent the fall is the weekly support, in the range 1.18800-1.18500 4-The last candle of the day cast a long shadow on its high resistance , Which indicates a failed test to climb as well as a failure to start the ascent If you agree with me and it was useful to you, do not forget to like and support. Good luck
Short
by sabbaghzade69
1