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Main Stages Bitcoin Bubble Cycle !Before continuing make sure to like , follow and save this post. This content is going to help you in the future The term "bubble," in a financial context, generally refers to a situation where the price for something—an individual stock, a financial asset, or even an entire sector, market, or asset class—exceeds its fundamental value by a large margin. Because speculative demand, rather than intrinsic worth, fuels the inflated prices, the bubble eventually but inevitably pops, and massive sell-offs cause prices to decline, often quite dramatically. In most cases, in fact, a speculative bubble is followed by a spectacular crash in the securities in question. Smart money A displacement occurs when smart money and investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as bitcoin at 3000 dollars Boom Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold. Public During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise, and the "greater fool" theory—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more—plays out everywhere. Media plays an important place here because they push to buy! Panic It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot inflate again. There are a lot of profit taken area. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. retail Investors and speculators, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply.Media attention tend to increase this psychological biais Repeat The story repeat again and again
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AIRFOREXONE_
17
Risk management using Alpha and BetaAlpha measures excess return. Anything with alpha over 1.0 is considered favorable. Beta measures volatility and market risk. Anything with beta below 1.0 is considered favorable. These cannot be the only metrics you make your trades or investments on, but they are extremely helpful when comparing funds or stocks. Chasing high alpha will usually result in higher beta. Chasing low beta will usually result in lower alpha, meaning muted returns but a more stable, safe investment.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by EBITDAtiger
3
Bitcoin and battleplanning with Channels.I have said this many times: never draw a trendline when you can draw a channel. Also I have said that symmetrical triangles break down or up into wedges or ascending/descending triangles. Now you might glibly say "This_Guhy said it might go up, or it might to down, wow, so brave" But it isn't that it goes up or down but how it goes up or down with some targets so you can set some orders to get taken in or stopped out. This is less important for investors because they have less risk of getting squeezed out of their positions but even investors can be interested in buying what they think is the point of no return. Traders can set up straddles or more complexly layered trades. The macro trend is clearly bullish . We have top coins hitting all time highs or going 10-20X over the last year so the circumstances are very bullish . But that doesn't mean that every symmetrical triangle won't turn into a falling wedge , BTFO'ing the recklessly long or over-margined. It also doesn't mean that the price action won't formed "busted" falling wedges which would have price action dipping below the red channel before blasting to the upside. This is your launch pad for further battle planning. Falling wedges fit neatly into Elliot waves and fib extensions, as do ascending triangles as continuation patterns. There are retests of trendlines possible all over the place. You will be more prepared for future support and resistance if you battle plan as such. Every symmetrical triangle is best drawn as two possible channels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by This_Guhy
1
||HERE'S WHY YOU ARE FAILING IN TRADING (EXPLANATION)If your reading this your one of 3 people , you have been trading for more than 1-3 years without any success whatsoever that you can be proud of ,you are just in your beginning phase and you just can't understand why you can't get the hang of it(trading) yet you had a few good months in the start , you are unknowingly addicted to the idea of yourself being this top trader but keep making the same mistakes and are wondering whether you made the right choice joining trading to begin with!. Well to you, all are in luck because pretty much everyone in the industry has lived or come close to those same ideas and thoughts ,asked those same questions over and over until you come to a certain realisation which am going to relay down below . How does it start ? (the losing consistently) you might wonder; well when the analysis and trades you takes aren’t rewarded 100% of the time, nor do they cause a negative outcome 100% of the time, this keeps you trying: You the trader realise that you have a chance of profitability anywhere between 0% and 100% to win. In your mind, a loss or a string of losses are just part of the process and you need to keep going to eventually win. You expect to be rewarded some of the time, and this expectation motivates you to keep trading. And to make things more interesting you overestimate the probability that something will happen because your mind can produce immediate examples of when it did happen(I know you recall your last winning trade you took how nice it felt) It might even be because you can recall a time when you had a lucky string of wins yourself. Thus, you think your chances of winning are larger than they actually are. As a trader you commonly think that the chances of winning increase with each loss, but this is completely untrue(learn from the loses they say). The chance of winning neither ‘increases’ nor ‘decreases’ when trading. Chance does not work by shuffling through a pre-determined number of losses or wins. Each trade is a new, isolated event and has the exact same chance of winning or losing as the previous one. Think of it like flipping a coin. If it comes up with tails 7 times in a row, that doesn’t suddenly make the chance of getting heads higher than 50%. Each new flip is always 50%. Our brains just try to rationalise the unlikeliness of getting 7 tails in a row by saying it’ll ‘balance’ out with a heads next. Chance has no methodology, but traders often think it does. We believe that our next trade is ‘due’ to be good because all our previous ones have been so lousy or that the pair/stock/metal we’re trading on is ‘due’ to pay out, and this flawed mentality urges us to keep trading. Many traders also falsely believe that they have some influence over markets. This might be reinforced depending on the type of strategy we’re trading – one where there is some level of control due to choices , but in the markets primarily the driving force is whether someone wins or loses we want to feel in control – it’s within our nature – so the frustration of how unpredictable trading is can lead to a person convincing themselves that they can gain some control over it. (am sure you felt like you had some control, who hasn't ). We as traders are also more sensitive to losses than gains of equal value. For example, losing a 100$ to the markets generates a more prominent emotional reaction than finding 100$ in your wallet. This is why many traders endlessly invest time and money to try ‘win’ back previous losses or alleviate the feeling of disappointment or frustration by gaining a win. At this point, winning becomes less about excitement and more about ‘making up’ for losses, so we get stuck in a vicious cycle. These psychological factors, combined with genetic predispositions, mean a trader can very easily fall down a slippery slope leading to failing in trading. Some times you can have trades running in positive but fail to close them and come back finding them in negative then you decide to close them, reluctancy to make emotionless decisions to cut trades when in profit but rather in negative has something to do with how you react to handling risk in your mind and you need to fix the gap, Gap( is you thinking that any increment you get in an environment of pure risk isn't worth but then react when it goes against you.) It also makes it incredibly difficult for a trader to know when they have a problem. Failing at trading is often accompanied with denial and an unrealistic views of things.fortunately there's lots of information out there to help you set yourself on the right journey but it ends with you asking yourself this question! ARE YOU PROFITABLE (REALLY PROFITABLE) OR ARE YOU IN DENIAL AND LYING TO YOURSELF? if the answer is (NO!) You can do the following; -weekly trade reviews -strategy reviews -risk management review -money psychological review among other things leave a comment if you have experienced any of these situations in your trading and how you overcame them to help everyone better there trading thank you ps-dabag.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by da-bag
11
ETH Range EducactionSimilar to the link below. ETH range bound in November 2020 and January 2021 played out the same way. Ranging price action (PA) relies on Fibonacci levels to be reclaimed. Watch for reclamation of: 0.25 0.5-0.618 (range EQ) 0.75 range high ETH here could either keep bouncing off of range high, as it has just retested it OR it returns to clearly retest 0.25 and trend line resistance with an hourly candle close I prefer the latter, but time will tell. If price bounces beyond 1440 then we will see more upside as that is bullish market structure (higher highs). Doesn't mean we WON'T see a retest of that trend line, but it might happen a week down the line.
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by Riester
1
EUR/JPY Huge potential for a 65 pip move! Find out why...EUR/JPY has been moving sharply to the downside easily seen on the higher timeframes (Daily and 4H). EJ has broken a major well respected area of support that has been identified on the Daily timeframe and over the course of the last 2 days, the market has retested the break @126.170 as resistance seen clearly on all timeframes. Along with the retest, there is a 3rd touch of the trend line that represents the downtrend, acting as another confirmation to get involved in a sell position. On the 30 min chart, you can see a clear rejection from 126.170. There is also a more minor area of support I have identified on the 30 min chart that the market has broken. There is now a retracement taking place which gives the opportunity to get short @125.960 area. I will keep you guys up to date on this idea, whether I execute or not. Be sure to follow me for notifications on the update of this idea! Feel free to like this post if you agree with my idea!
Short
by ShaunGadd02
EOS Education: Range TradingExtreme wicks in quick succession, such as a blow-off top and a quick dump, establish a range. 1. Identify range extremes (high/low) at the ends of the candle wicks 2. Plot the Fibonacci levels 3. Important levels to mark are around the 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 - 0.75 tends to be the first Higher Low (HL) - 0.5-0.618 is the Range Equilibrium (Range EQ) and price tends to test it as support/resistance numerous times. - 0.25 tends to be the first rejection after dumping from range high HOW OT PLAY RANGE: - after dump from range high to range low (range established), look to long after reclaiming the 0.75 as support. - If price rejects Range EQ with a sharp bearish engulfing candle, short. - If price breaks Range EQ and retests as support, long - If price bounced from Range EQ, look to take profits at 0.25 - If price rejects 0.25 with bearish engulfing candle, short RANGE BREAKOUTS: - Often ranges will exhibit "fakeouts" to either side. After establishing the range low, price could bounce and make a Lower High around Range EQ. Typically price will then return to range low, wick slightly below and then immediately snap back into the range. This is a " false breakdown" - The inverse is true as well. Price could hold range EQ as support and then pump hard and breakout of the range high, wick beyond it and fail to hold range high as support. The price will then return to the range, thus creating a " false breakout " - This is important as fakeouts tend to shake out the weak hands. When it breaks range low, stop losses at range low are often hit thus creating a liquidation dump. - Upon breaking range high, many novice traders experience FOMO and market long. They get liquidated because they're stop losses are oftetn placed at range high at this point, so when price fails to hold range high as support they get liquidated causing a massive dump back into the range. SUMMARY: - Watch Fibonacci levels - Don't FOMO the breakouts. Wait for clear retests of range extremes as support/resistance before entering a trade. - In EOS right now, a quick scalp could be made if we hold 0.25 as support. - Otherwise, look to long a successful retest of range high as support before longing.
BYBIT:EOSUSD.P
by Riester
1
GBP/JPY Short Opportunity for a potential of 30 PIPS!!OVERVIEW: Yesterday I called a sell trade on GBP/JPY from 140.900 to target 140.340 which ended up being a 55 pip win! As soon as the target was hit the market has spent the current trading day retesting 140.900 break of support as NEW RESISTANCE. There is now another opportunity to go short on GJ as it is coming up to NYSE open which could bring high volume into the market to move to the downside once more towards 140.390. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: This is a nice simple market structure set up, if it plays out well this will be a very easy 30 pip win on top of the 55 pip win earlier today. As you can see GBP/JPY has been moving very strongly to the downside starting from last Friday, continuing on towards this current trading week. Earlier on today there was a break of major support at 140.900, now the market is retesting the area as resistance, I need to see a 1 Hour candle close below 140.900 and for the next candle to break below the previous before entering a sell to target 140.390.
Short
by ShaunGadd02
USD will go to HELL!1.20000 is a lovely buy area for me, this has been used as a key support and resistance level historically and will be used many times again as it is a nice round number. On December 1st 2020 price broke through this level which was acting as strong resistance! Price has not since come down to re test this level as support which i think price is on its way to do now. More than likely when such a strong level like this does break we will get a retest of that level before a bigger move in the direction of the break. Personally i wouldn't sell down to this level but would wait to see if price does reach 1.20000 before placing the buy, just be patient! Jumping into a trade in no mans land is never a good idea at all. USD is doomed and will only get weaker as they print more money! For this reason i am in a fair few USD sell swing trade positions. If you would like to know more about the way i trade then come have a chat and i will be happy to help you!
Long
by Premier_FX
8
5 Simple Steps To Improve Your Trading (must read)This 5 steps system is an approach that has a 99% success rate on a long-term basis. The process of continuous optimization is a great combination which allows people to become aware and improve as a trader. Before reading , make sure to give a like ,comment and follow. I will constantly share content from another perspective. So if you are really committed don't read the post and forget it . Promisse me and yourself that you will execute what you learn. PLAN In this moment you should have a predefined potential edge criteria: your goal is to find opportunities in the same approach . You need to find a predefined and specific time frame that suits to you and your trader profile. By other side you need to have predefined risk management , market conditions, entry criteria's to get flawless executions , exit criteria's and a profit taken system. for more about how to build a trading plan , I will drop below a previous post in which I deeply explain how to do it. EXECUTION In this phase, you need to get confidence to execute and apply your previous potential plan. You need to build discipline to follow it. If you want to get consistent profit extraction in a calm state of mind from the market, you must build a strong confidence in you plan in order to execute. No hesitations. Those who make it in this business were strongly confidents. they made a decision to either figure it out or die trying. They have burned the bridges. Victory or death. JOURNAL Without ABC'S, you can't create words. Without the words, there are no sentences. Without sentences, no paragraphs. No paragraphs, no story. No story , then no idea what's going on. No idea what's going on= GAMBLING. If you don't collect data , you won't be able to collect data from your mistakes= you will continue to gamble and repeat the mistakes. A mistake repeated more than once is a decision made by the unawareness ANALYZE Your goal here is to understand your perception about the market, perhaps your system and plans are profitable in the long-term. maybe your trading errors are mental perception of fake neuro-associative conditions. If your goal is to trade like a professional and be a consistent winner, then you must start from the premise that the solutions are in your mind and not in the market. In that way a study of the risk is a study of yourself. You must analyze the way you find good deals , the way you execute those good deals and the way you let those deals play out. OPTIMIZE Do more with less of your ressources. Think fast and think slow at the same time. Optimization process in trading should be taken from another perspective. Instead of trying to optimize the ''holy grail'' you should improve your mental game. Trading is a mental game, and the more you trade, the more you will realize it, and the more you will believe in its importance. We haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of the psychology of trading, yet most traders would rather focus on which time-frame to execute... what indicators to apply, or do I place the trend line on the wicks or the bodies.... All these questions are completely useless and irrelevant if you have a flawed psychological foundation. It will only frustrate you further when you still can’t seem to find consistent profitability. All the analysis and analytical tools in the world will not fix a weak psychology. Instead of trying to improve the plan , try to improve yourself applying the previous plan . Follow this profile for more content and let me know your point of view below ! :)
by AIRFOREXONE_
20