EUR/GBP: how to identify a liquidity sweep (+ a technical bonus)This idea will be both educational and technical.
First, we start with the educational part.
If someone were to ask me what a liquidity grab (Stop Loss hunt) really is, I would show them this specific chart illustration. If we take a deep look at the Daily-timeframe graph, we might observe how the price has been able to tap above/below wick rejections and top/bottom reversal formations before aggressively impulsing in pre-determined destinations. This happens for the sole reason of taking out early entrants, who tend to place their Stop Loss orders a few pips above/below identified reversal patterns, before riding the wave in the pre-orchesrated direction.
Marked by a red line, we have mapped some of the recent initial reversal legs, all of which are followed by liquidity taps above/below the formed wick candles and a major reversal levels. It can be inferred how the price tends to make manoeuvres and trick masses into believing that impulses have already commenced, which forces traders into making irrationally rushed decisions and opening transactions with their SL orders set a few ticks above the recent wick. The rest is known: the price prints a leg to the upside/downside, taps into the liquidity pool, then carries on acting as planned and destined.
From the technical standpoint, the price has tapped into the Weekly timeframe lows and is on the verge of leaving a potential wick candle and impulsing towards the south in the direction of the recent Lows as painted on our graphic. Combining that with the Daily-timeframe identification of a probable liquidity sweep, we are confident about going short and targeting the zone we have identified on the chart.
For further reference, I am attaching a recent educational post of ours on the same theme published last month (“Avoid getting trapped and hunted by market sharks”).
Educationalpost
The Relative Strength Index Explained [RSI]Hello traders and investors! If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜. Your support matters!
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a powerful tool used in technical analysis to gauge the momentum and potential overbought or oversold conditions of an asset. Here's a breakdown of how it works:
Time Period and Calculation:
By default, the RSI measures the price changes of an asset over a set period, which is usually 14 periods.
These periods can represent days on daily charts, hours on hourly charts, or any other timeframe you choose. The formula then calculates two averages: the average gain the price has had over those periods and the average loss it has sustained.
Momentum Indicator:
RSI is categorized as a momentum indicator. It essentially measures how quickly the price or data is changing. When the RSI indicates increasing momentum and the price is rising, it signals active buying in the market. Conversely, if momentum is increasing to the downside, it suggests that selling pressure is intensifying.
Momentum Explained:
Momentum in trading is like measuring how fast a car is speeding up or slowing down. In the case of RSI, it's all about understanding if a cryptocurrency or stock is picking up speed in its price changes or slowing down.
RSI as a Trend Strength Indicator:
Think of RSI as a meter that shows you how strong the current trend is in the world of trading. It's like checking the engine power of a car to see how fast it can go.
Shifting Frame Analogy:
Imagine RSI as a shifting picture frame. This frame covers a certain number of periods, say 14 days, just like a moving window in time. When a day with a significant loss falls out of this frame, and days with substantial gains come into view, it's as if the frame is shifting to reveal a brighter picture. This shift in the frame is reflected in the RSI. If the new days are bringing in more gains than losses, the RSI goes from being low (indicating a weak trend) to high (indicating a strong trend).
RSI and Momentum:
RSI acts like a swinging pendulum, moving back and forth between 0 and 100. It tells you the current speed of price changes in the market.
When RSI is going up, think of it like a rocket taking off – it indicates bullish momentum, meaning prices are likely rising.
Conversely, when RSI is going down, it's like a balloon deflating – this suggests bearish momentum, indicating prices are likely falling.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions:
RSI helps you spot extreme conditions in the market.
If RSI goes above 70, it's like a warning sign that the price might have gone up too fast, and the asset could be overbought. It's a bit like when a stock is in high demand, and everyone's rushing to buy it.
On the flip side, if RSI drops below 30, it's a signal that the price may have fallen too quickly, and the asset could be oversold. It's a bit like when a stock is out of favor, and everyone's selling it.
So, when you see RSI crossing these thresholds, it's like a traffic light for traders. Above 70 is like a red light (be cautious, price may reverse), and below 30 is like a green light (consider buying, price may bounce back). These are handy rules of thumb for making trading decisions!
Price Reversals in Overbought/Oversold Territory:
When a stock or cryptocurrency's price is in the overbought or oversold territory (RSI above 70 or below 30), it's like a warning sign that a reversal might happen.
However, it's important to remember that these levels don't guarantee an immediate reversal. Just because RSI is high doesn't mean you should rush to sell, and vice versa. Prices can remain in these extreme zones for a while before reversing.
RSI as a Tool, Not a Sole Decision Maker:
RSI is a tool in your trading toolbox, not a crystal ball. It's one piece of the puzzle. It's not accurate to say, "RSI < 30 equals an automatic buy signal, and RSI > 70 equals an automatic sell signal." Trading involves more factors and judgment than that.
Consider Multiple Timeframes:
Looking at different timeframes is like zooming in and out on a map. It provides a more complete picture of what's happening. For example, if the daily RSI is showing overbought conditions, but the weekly RSI is still in a healthy range, it suggests a different perspective. The longer-term trend may still be intact.
Oscillating Indicator:
RSI oscillates between 0 and 100, providing traders with a visual representation of an asset's strength or weakness. The scale helps identify potential overbought or oversold market conditions. An RSI score of 30 or lower suggests that the asset is likely nearing its bottom and is considered oversold. Conversely, an RSI measurement above 70 indicates that the asset price is likely nearing its peak and is considered overbought for that period.
Customization:
While the default setting for RSI is 14 periods, traders can adjust this parameter to suit their trading strategies. Shortening the period, such as using a 7-day RSI, makes the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements.
In contrast, using a longer period like 21 days reduces sensitivity. Additionally, some traders adapt the overbought and oversold levels, using 20 and 80 instead of the default 30 and 70, to fine-tune the indicator for specific trading setups and reduce false signals.
Divergences:
Divergences occur when the price of an asset and its RSI are moving in opposite directions. It's like having two friends walking together but going in different directions.
Regular Divergences:
Imagine this like a traffic signal turning red when everyone's used to it being green.
Regular divergences signal a potential trend reversal. For example, if the price is going up (bullish), but RSI is going down (bearish), it could indicate that the bullish trend is losing steam, and a reversal might be on the horizon.
Hidden Divergences:
Hidden divergences are like a green light at a junction where everyone expects red.
They signal a potential trend continuation. For instance, if the price is going down (bearish), but RSI is going up (bullish), it could mean that the bearish trend might continue but with less intensity.
Learn more about divergence:
Practical Use and Timeframes:
Divergences are like big road signs on a highway. They're often easier to spot on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, where the broader trend becomes more apparent. When you see a divergence, it's like getting a heads-up that something interesting might happen in the market, but it's important to combine this signal with other analysis and indicators to make informed trading decisions.
The Power of Risk ManagementRisk management is one of the key topics in forex trading that is not emphasised enough. Instead, there is too much emphasis on solely focusing on being on the right side of the market to consistently make money while ignoring proper risk management in the process. This post will completely debunk this, so after you have finished reading, you will hopefully have a completely new mindset on how to actually succeed long-term in forex.
Absolute Uncertainty
The forex market is a place where the majority of people struggle to find consistency. This is due to the nature of the market, where uncertainty is constant. What I mean by this is that the market is completely irrational and neutral; when you want to buy, there is somebody else on the other side that wants to sell, and vice versa. The market is filled with millions of other participants with their own goals, beliefs, and motivations; therefore, the market will go where it wants to go. Unfortunately, not enough people really grasp what this means and are obsessed with how many trades they can get right to make money.
The main purpose of risk management in forex is to reduce your trading risk and grow your trading capital safely. It is great to have good skills in determining the market's direction, but more importantly, you need to have good risk management skills too.
Two different traders, Same Trades, Two different outcomes
Let's put this into practice. Let us assume that two different traders both took the exact same ten trades and both won five of the ten trades taken. Let's call these traders 'Trader A' and 'Trader B. Trader A is just obsessed with being right in the market. The trader is quite skilled in understanding the market, but the trader is just focused on how many trades are closed at profit. Trader A risks about 2% per trade; however, trades are usually cut short, and thus ends up taking profit at about half of the initial risk (2% risk per trade and 0.5:1 risk-reward). Trader B understands that the market is completely irrational, where anything can happen at any time, and to trade the market succesfully, must treat trading like a business, causing the trader to have strict risk management rules (2% risk per trade and 2:1 risk-reward) that are stuck to at all times.
As you can see from the above image, Trader A ended up with a 5% decrease to the account and Trader B ended up with a 9.98% increase to the account after both traders taking the same ten trades, why did this happen? The answer is simple Trader A cut the profits short and ran the losses whereas Trader B ran the profits and cut the losses. It does not matter if you are right or wrong in trading what matters is how much you make from your right trades and how much you give back to the market on your wrong trades.
Forex Journey Ends Before Getting Started
Due to many people not understanding the power of risk management, their journey in forex ends before it even gets started. To explain further, a lot of traders either do not calculate their risk before they trade the markets or they are aware of their risk but decide not to place high importance on it (a fatal mistake). This is one of the biggest killers of forex traders, and all it takes is one bad trade before the market takes all your hard-earned money and you are out. The market is an unforgivable place that will not care if you are blown out; it will continue to go on with or without you participating, and you must give it respect. The higher your risk, the lower your long-term survivability probabilities are. Remember, if you don't have funds to trade, you can't participate! It is as simple as that, so you must treat trading as a business and not as a casual hobby if you aim to consistently make money over the long term. Let's see how your survivability chance decreases the more you risk.
Position Sizing
Now that you understand how crucial it is not to risk too much of your account in a trade but do not know exactly how to calculate how much you should be risking per trade, how do we calculate this?
In forex, a pip movement on a one-lot contract is approximately $10, so if you enter a trade on a forex pair and it moves 20 pips against you, you will be approximately $200 down. It is very important to understand this because if you do not, you will not know how much you should be risking per trade, and you may end up overexposed in the market with a high chance of blowing your account. For example, if you have a $10,000 account balance and want to risk 2% ($200) of your account per trade on a one-lot contract, that is 20 pips; therefore, your stop loss should be around 20 pips.
However, on the same account balance, if your stop loss is 100 pips, let's say, and you are not aware of pip calculations, you are potentially risking 10% of your account in that trade alone, which is extremely dangerous, and as seen in the above example, it only takes 10 trades in a row to blow your account on 10% risk per trade. But what if your strategy requires a 100-pip stop loss, as that is where your stop loss level is, and you really want to enter the trade? You just have to trade a smaller position size! 2% of $10,000 is $200, and we know that 1 pip is equal to around $10, so $200 is equal to 20 pips. Now how do we trade this with good risk management if we want a 100-pip stop? Let's see the image below:
So as you can see in the above image, if you are on a 2% rule, which is good risk management, all you need to do is reduce the position size if your strategy requires a larger stop. There is nothing stopping you from entering the position. In the forex market, safety must come first at all times. To add, it is not worth having a smaller stop loss just to be able to trade a bigger position size, as this can be very detrimental to your trading due to the fact that in forex, there is a lot of market noise due to so many participants, and it is very easy to get whipsawed on a small stop loss and get taken out of your position.
The next time you are about to enter a position, ask yourself if it would be better to have a larger stop to protect yourself from getting squeezed out of the position. If so, just reduce your position size accordingly and have a larger stop. Always remember that the market does not limit you from trading your opportunities if you have a larger stop but do not want to risk a large percent of your account in the trade; you just have to trade smaller.
Plan, Analyse, Assess, Review
1. Plan
Before you take a trade, always have a plan for your risk management. The 2% risk per trade rule is always a safe rule, and the best traders tend to use this rule. Always know what your account balance is, what your risk amount should be, and exactly where your stop-loss needs to be. Always remember that if your stop is too tight, try trading a lower position size to give you more leeway.
2. Analyse
When you get a trade setup, before you pull the trigger and enter the trade, ask yourself, "Is there enough reward in this trade setup that it is worth entering the trade?" If the answer is no, do not take the trade! Remember, trading is not just about being right or wrong; it is also about how much you take or give to the market when you are right or wrong. The reward must always be worth the risk, and you must constantly analyse this before entering the market.
3. Assess
Make sure you often assess your current risk management, especially when you are in a trading position. For example, if your position is about to reach your take-profit target but the market looks like it wants to keep going past your target, instead of coming out of the position completely, why don't you instead take some of the position out and keep the rest of the position in? You can trail your profit to your original target and potentially make extra profits this way with nothing to lose. The same goes on the other side: if you enter a trade and at some point are no longer comfortable with the position, do not be scared to cut the position short and exit the position. Always listen to your gut instinct, as it may be telling you something for a reason.
4. Review
Always review your risk management. Take a look at your past trades and try to learn from them. Was your stop-loss too tight in a lot of your trades? Was your stop not tight enough in a lot of your trades? Are you cutting yourself short, and could you have a higher risk-to-reward ratio in a lot of your trades? There is always room for improvement, and the only way to improve your risk management is to review your previous trading history to see what possible adjustments you could make to your risk management. Remember, you should treat trading as a business if you want to succeed long-term, and most, if not all, successful businesses constantly review their risk management.
The power of risk management is absolute. If this post has not done enough to convince you of this, always remember that you are always one bad trade away from being put out of business. The majority of beginner traders blow their accounts in the first three months of trading; this is not due to them not understanding the markets but due to poor risk management and not treating trading as a business. Always remember to maximise your profits and cut your losses. All trading involves risk, and there is no 'holy grail' strategy that can eliminate risk entirely. However, by managing your risks effectively, you can reduce the impact of risk on your trading and increase your chances of long-term success.
BluetonaFX
Supply and Demand Zones: Buying Low, Selling High1. What Are Supply and Demand Zones?
In the cryptocurrency trading, supply and demand zones are pivotal concepts that profoundly impact market behavior. These zones act as critical areas where traders engage in buying and selling actions, significantly influencing price movements. To gain a deeper understanding of how these zones work, let's delve into the specifics.
2. What Is A Supply Zone?
A supply zone, within the context of cryptocurrency trading, represents a resistance area where traders are inclined to sell their assets. Supply zones are typically positioned above the current market spot price and often coincide with prominent psychological price thresholds, such as $50,000 or $60,000. This zone often becomes the focal point for take-profit orders, and when the price approaches it, resistance ensues. Unless there's a notable surge in buying pressure to counteract the selling momentum, prices are prone to decline.
3. What Is A Demand Zone?
On the flip side, a demand zone serves as a support area where traders favor purchasing cryptocurrency assets. Demand zones are generally situated below the current market spot price and are frequently aligned with significant psychological price levels, such as $10,000 or $20,000. Traders are inclined to set limit buy orders within these zones, leading to upward price movements as the appeal of the support level draws in buyers.
4. How to Draw Supply and Demand Zones?
Drawing supply and demand zones is a fundamental skill for cryptocurrency traders. To create these zones effectively, traders often employ the "Rectangle" tool available on @TradingView charts. By identifying historical peak levels and bottoms where price reversals have occurred, traders can accurately delineate supply and demand areas.
5. How to Find Supply and Demand Zones?
While there isn't a specific indicator dedicated to supply and demand, we can utilize tools like "Pivot Points" to narrow down these key areas.
Pivot Points are instrumental in highlighting support and resistance levels, making them valuable for identifying potential supply and demand zones.
When Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies reach these levels marked by Pivot Points, significant price reactions often follow, offering prime opportunities for profitable trades.
6. How to Trade Supply and Demand Zones?
Trading based on supply and demand zones is a versatile strategy that suits both short-term and long-term trading approaches. The fundamental principle remains constant: buy within demand zones and sell within supply zones.
For example, suppose Bitcoin is currently trading at $25,900, and demand zones are situated in the range of $25,300 to $25,600. In this case, we can place buy orders within this demand zone and sell orders in the supply zones. It's essential to adapt this strategy to your specific trading goals and preferences, utilizing support and resistance levels as a foundational framework for drawing trend lines and setting limit orders.
Incorporating the power of supply and demand zones into your cryptocurrency trading strategy can provide invaluable insights and enhance your overall trading success.
Whether you're a day trader or a long-term investor, comprehending and effectively utilizing these zones can enable you to make more informed decisions and potentially amplify your profitability in the cryptocurrency trading.
Types of RetestsHere you can see few examples of a Retests 📊
⚫️ First example is a regular support and resistance retest. It occurs after price breaks this zones. Price then goes back to test previous support or resistance and this is usually good place to enter a trade.
⚫️ Second example is a supply and demand retest.
⚫️ Third example uses help of volume profile indicator. Areas of a high volume profile represent zones where potential retest can occur.
⚫️ Fourth example is a simple trendline retest. Very useful when you look for a reversal entries.
DIVERGENCE CHEATSHEETHello dear traders and investors community!
The Divergence Cheat Sheet
Divergence occurs when the price of an asset and an indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), move in opposite directions. This pattern provides valuable insights into potential price reversals or changes in trends.
Detecting Divergence
Detecting divergence is crucial for identifying lucrative trading opportunities. By using divergence indicators like the RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator, we can gain significant insights into market trends and potential price reversals.
To pinpoint divergence effectively, follow these steps:
Choose an indicator capable of detecting divergence, such as the RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator.
Look for discrepancies between the indicator and the price action. Regular divergence occurs when the price and the indicator move in opposite directions, while hidden divergence occurs when they move in the same direction but at different rates.
Monitor the direction of the trend. Divergence can indicate a trend reversal, so keeping track of the current market trend is crucial.
Confirm the divergence signal with other technical analysis tools. Divergence is just one piece of the puzzle, so it's essential to use other indicators to validate your trading decisions.
Examples of Divergence in Trading Charts
Let's examine a few examples of divergence on Bitcoin charts:
Strong Bullish Divergence:
When lows of the price decreases while the RSI increases, a regular bullish divergence occurs. This signals a potential trend reversal and presents an opportunity for a bullish trade.
Strong Bearish Divergence:
When highs the price of an asset is rising while the RSI is falling, it indicates a regular bearish divergence. This suggests a potential trend reversal and presents an opportunity for a bearish trade.
Medium Bullish Divergence:
When the lows of an asset remain equal while the RSI is rising, it indicates a medium bullish divergence. This suggests a potential increase in price, although it may not be a strong upward movement.
Medium Bearish Divergence:
When the highs of an asset remain unchanged while the RSI is decreasing, it indicates a medium bearish divergence. This suggests a potential decline in price, although the downward movement may not be significant.
Weak Bullish Divergence:
When the lows of an asset is decreasing while the RSI lows is equal, it indicates a weak bullish divergence. This suggests a potential increase in price, although it may not be a strong upward movement.
Weak Bearish Divergence:
When the highs of an asset are rising while the RSI remains unchanged, it indicates a moderate bearish divergence. This suggests a potential decline in price, although the downward movement may not be significant.
Hidden Bullish Divergence:
Hidden bullish divergence occurs when the price creates higher lows while the RSI is creating lower lows. This reinforces an existing uptrend and suggests its strength.
Hidden Bearish Divergence:
Hidden bearish divergence is observed when the price forms lower highs while the RSI forms higher highs. This indicates a potential weakening of the current uptrend and might signal a trend reversal or a pullback.
By recognizing these divergence patterns on trading charts, we can gain insights into potential market reversals, entry and exit points, and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
To effectively incorporate divergence into your trading, consider the following steps:
Identify the appropriate indicators: Choose reliable indicators such as RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator that can detect divergence patterns effectively.
Learn to spot divergence: Familiarize yourself with the different types of divergence patterns and practice identifying them on price charts. This will help you develop a trained eye for spotting potential trading opportunities.
Confirm with additional analysis: While divergence can provide valuable signals, it's essential to use other technical analysis tools to confirm your trading decisions. Look for supporting indicators, chart patterns, or trendline breaks that align with the divergence signal.
Set clear entry and exit criteria: Define your entry and exit points based on the divergence signal and your risk tolerance. Consider using stop-loss orders and take-profit levels to manage your trades effectively.
Practice risk management: Implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing, to protect your capital. Divergence alone should not be the sole basis for your trading decisions but rather an additional tool in your arsenal.
Backtest and refine your strategy: Test your divergence-based trading strategy on historical price data to assess its effectiveness. Make adjustments as needed and continuously monitor and evaluate your results to improve your trading approach.
Remember, divergence analysis is not foolproof and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis methods and market factors.
Divergence analysis is a powerful tool that can provide us with an edge in the cryptocurrency market. By understanding and effectively utilizing divergence patterns, we can identify potential trend reversals, improve entry and exit timing, and enhance overall trading strategy. Incorporate divergence analysis into your trading approach and combine it with other technical indicators and risk management techniques for a well-rounded and informed trading strategy.
Driving Forces Behind Cryptocurrencies' VolatilityIn the ever-evolving realm of modern finance, the emergence of cryptocurrencies has catalyzed a seismic shift, captivating the imagination of investors and traders alike. Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009, the cryptocurrency market has experienced an unprecedented surge, leading to a proliferation of digital assets, each with its own unique characteristics and potential applications.
However, amid the exhilarating highs and gut-wrenching lows, the cryptocurrency market's intrinsic volatility has left many pondering the enigmatic forces that propel its wild fluctuations. This article embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the fundamental drivers that propel the volatile universe of cryptocurrencies, providing an in-depth analysis of the intricate interplay between a myriad of elements that influence prices and sentiment.
From the far-reaching impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory dynamics to the revolutionary power of technological advancements and the sway of market sentiment, a complex tapestry of influences collectively shapes the turbulent journey of digital currencies. As the global financial ecosystem grapples with the ongoing evolution of this nascent asset class, acquiring an intimate understanding of these pivotal factors becomes a cornerstone for investors, traders, and enthusiasts navigating this dynamic landscape.
Diving into the Cryptocurrency Mosaic
Cryptocurrencies have transcended their origin with Bitcoin to establish a vibrant and diverse ecosystem of digital assets. Each cryptocurrency possesses a distinct set of attributes, use cases, and underlying technologies, intricately weaving into the intricate fabric of the market.
Broadly categorized, cryptocurrencies fall into two primary groups: coins and tokens. Coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash are engineered to facilitate transactions and serve as alternatives to conventional currencies. In contrast, crypto tokens are constructed atop existing blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, fulfilling functions like governance and ecosystem transactions.
Furthermore, the consensus mechanisms employed by cryptocurrencies contribute to their diversity. The proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, utilized by Bitcoin and others, relies on mining for transaction validation. Conversely, the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, exemplified by Ethereum and Cosmos, leverages validators to confirm transactions, enhancing energy efficiency and scalability.
Decrypting Cryptocurrency Volatility
Volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of cryptocurrencies, fueled by a confluence of influential factors:
Limited Liquidity: With trading volumes and market capitalization often lower than traditional assets, even modest buy or sell orders can generate substantial price fluctuations.
Speculative Nature: Cryptocurrencies are frequently viewed as speculative instruments, leading to price movements driven by market sentiment, hype, and speculative behavior, rather than fundamental analysis.
Regulatory Ambiguity: As a relatively nascent and lightly regulated market, regulatory developments can trigger abrupt price shifts as investors respond to changes or uncertainties in the legal landscape.
Sentiment Swings: Market sentiment, shaped by events like security breaches or regulatory announcements, can exert considerable influence on cryptocurrency prices.
Manipulation Vulnerability: Due to limited oversight and liquidity in certain markets, cryptocurrencies are susceptible to manipulation by sizable holders, leading to price distortions.
Technological Factors: Technical vulnerabilities or glitches can prompt swift price fluctuations as investors react to perceived risks associated with the underlying technology.
Adoption and Utilization: The practical adoption and use cases of cryptocurrencies significantly influence their value. Currencies with tangible utility and real-world applications tend to garner heightened interest and market support.
Supply and Demand: The fundamental economics of supply and demand guide cryptocurrency prices. Scarce supply coupled with growing demand can propel prices upward.
Macroeconomic Influences: Broader macroeconomic factors, encompassing inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events, can channel investor attention toward cryptocurrencies as alternative investment vehicles or stores of value.
Influential Figures' Statements: Public endorsements or criticisms from influential figures exert considerable impact on cryptocurrency prices, shaping market perceptions and behavior.
Conclusion
As cryptocurrencies reshape the financial landscape, delving into the driving forces behind their volatility is essential for navigating this dynamic market. From the inception of Bitcoin to the kaleidoscope of digital assets that now flourish, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by its rollercoaster-like price oscillations.
This article has undertaken a comprehensive exploration of the key factors influencing this volatile realm. Regulatory shifts, market sentiment, technological advancements, hacking incidents, and supply-demand dynamics all converge to define cryptocurrency movements. Understanding these multifaceted influences empowers investors, traders, and enthusiasts to navigate the unpredictability of the crypto landscape with poise and informed decision-making.
While cryptocurrencies promise transformation, their journey is marked by rapid evolution and maturation. As the landscape continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance and adaptability remains pivotal. Regardless of your vantage point, comprehending these factors empowers you to seize opportunities and surmount challenges in the captivating realm of digital assets.
80/20 - The Pareto Principle
Created by an economist in the 19th century, the Pareto Principle has found its way into all different areas of life and is still used to this day. The basic idea is that for many systems, 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. In other words, a small number of factors have a large impact on the results.
This post will go into further depth on this principle and will also explain how this concept can be applied to trading in a number of ways, making for more efficient and effective use of your productivity, time, and energy.
What is the Pareto Principle?
This was developed during the 19th century by an Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto. He noted during the course of his studies that 80% of the land in Italy belonged to about 20% of the population. The 80/20 ratio even became prevalent in his life, and he also noticed that around 20% of the pea pods in his garden yielded around 80% of the peas.
This has been found to be true in key aspects of life and is even famously known as the '80/20 rule'. Other examples of this are that 80% of a company's sales are produced by 20% of their products or services, and 80% of news coverage is based on 20% of world events, etc. So how can this idea be applied in the trading world?
80/20: The Pareto Principle In Trading
In trading, the Pareto Principle can be applied in several ways. There is a general understanding that in the markets, on average, around 80% of our profits come from around 20% of trades. Therefore, it is important to focus on making a small number of high-quality trades rather than a large number of low-quality trades. By doing this, you can achieve better results with less effort. It is very easy to get caught up in the day-to-day grind of monitoring the markets, placing trades, and managing positions. However, this can quickly consume more time than needed if you let it.
Using an effective trading method that is also very easy to understand and implement will give you the mental clarity and time to focus 80% on money management and discipline (we will get to these points later) while only needing about 20% of your mental energy for analysing the markets and finding trades. A lot of traders never even get to this point because they are constantly trying to figure out how to make sense of their trading system due to their current system being unnecessarily complicated.
Time Management
The 80/20 rule can also be applied to time management in trading. One way to do this as a trader is to spend the most time optimising the 20% of activities that generate 80% of your results. For example, if you spend a lot of time analysing data and know that it has a big impact on your results, you may want to focus on making sure that you spend enough time doing this activity. On the other hand, if you find that you spend a lot of time on activities that don’t have a big impact on your results, you may want to cut back on these activities and focus on the ones that do. To apply the 80/20 rule in this way, it can be helpful to track how you spend your time and the results that you achieve from each activity. This will allow you to identify which 20% of your activities are the most productive and focus your efforts on these activities.
By optimising your time management processes, you can use your time more effectively and free up more time to focus on the most important aspects of your trading, which will ultimately achieve better results. A popular misconception, especially among beginner traders, is that trading more and having high activity in the markets is good, which is in fact the opposite. Having high activity in the markets is not only potentially costly due to the transaction costs you need to pay your broker or exchange provider, but high activity in the markets can also cause the trader to overtrade, which leads to the trader taking many trade setups to the extent that he or she loses their market edge. That's due to the trader doing less research on each position and getting clouded judgement as a result of too much screen time.
While there is no exact number for how much time you should spend trading, the 80/20 rule can be a helpful guide. For example, if you want to cut back on your trading work-life balance, you may want to focus on only trading during the 20% of the day that is most active. This approach can help you effectively manage your time and focus your efforts on the most important part of the trading process. By only trading for a few hours each day, you can free up more time to focus on other aspects of your life.
Less is More, More is Less
Another way to apply the Pareto Principle to trading, for example, in Forex trading, is to focus on the 20% of currency pairs that generate 80% of the results. This means that you would only trade a few select currency pairs rather than trying to trade all of them. There are many forex pairs to choose from, and unfortunately, traders make the mistake of trying to trade too many pairs instead of choosing a handful of pairs at most to learn and really get familiar with those pairs as much as possible. Consistency in trading comes from consistent trial and error with the same few products over and over again, and this is very difficult to do if you decide to trade random pairs constantly. Another example of applying the 80/20 rule when choosing your assets is to focus on the 20% of assets that are most correlated with your trading strategy. For example, if you have a long-term trend-following strategy, you may want to focus on pairs that have a strong historical correlation with long-term trends.
The Pareto Principle is helpful for many traders who want to improve their trading performance. There are many other ways to apply it to trading. The important thing is to find the trading method that works best for you and your own trading style. Here are some simple examples of how you can use the Pareto Rule in trading:
Trending Markets Occur Roughly Only 20% of the Time
Strong market trends tend to occur slightly more than 20% of the time, leaving the markets moving sideways nearly 80% of the time. If you are a trend trader, it is very important to know and understand this, as you will adjust your strategy and manage your risks to mitigate that 80%, capitalising on the 20% trend period where (hopefully) you can generate more profits than losses from fewer trades. Knowing and understanding this will also help you not force trades that aren't there. One of the main reasons why traders (especially trend traders) lose money is that they lose patience and trade looking for a big move to happen while the market is just consolidating sideways and not doing anything.
80% Losses 20% Wins
That's right. What if I told you that you can be profitable by winning only 20% of your trades and going through times where you can experience at least five losing trades in a row? You are probably reading this, and when I say it is possible, you do not believe me (especially if you are new to trading), and I completely understand (don't worry, there will be proof of this). Another area where the 80/20 rule can be applied in trading is risk and money management. Unfortunately, not enough traders understand how important risk and money management are in trading and that you must have a strict and disciplined approach to them. Trading is not about just being right or wrong; it is about how much money you take from the market when you are right and how much money you give back to the market when you are wrong. As mentioned previously above, around 80% of our profits come from around 20% of trades, so when you really think about it, this should not sound so surprising to you. Still don't believe me? No worries! Let's see together that you can be right only 20% of the time and still make money.
As you can see above, there was still a 4.83% increase in account balance after only two trades were won out of ten. The art of trading is to run your profits and cut your losses, hence why the 80/20 rule works if you use it to your advantage.
80% Psychology 20% Trading Method
This is another example of the 80/20 principle. You should spend 80% of your time and energy on learning psychological control and capital management skills. For the remaining 20%, you can spend it on chart analysis and trading. If you trust and persevere with this, you will see significant changes in the way you trade. You will feel more comfortable, more confident, and safer, and ultimately see more consistency in your trading.
Many traders, unfortunately, never realise this. The reason is that they go all in trying to find a 'holy grail' strategy that will help them earn riches quickly and easily. And if the current method does not help them earn money, they will find another method, and the never-ending circle just keeps repeating until the trader quits for good.
The Pareto Principle is a powerful tool that can be used in many different areas of trading. Focus your energy and mind on the things that earn you money (the 20%, not the other 80%). It is great to work hard, but you must also work smart. What you need is a simple trading strategy and method. This is to eliminate the emotional effects as much as possible by not spending too much time in front of your screen. By applying the 80/20 rule to your trading skills, strategy, risk management, asset selection, and time management, you can drastically improve your trading performance and achieve better results.
BluetonaFX
Ascending Channels: The GuideGreetings, @TradingView community! This is @Vestinda, bringing you a helpful article on the topic of Ascending Channels!
An ascending channel, a potent chart pattern, stands out with two upward-slanting trend lines that define support and resistance levels. Also known as "rising channels" or "upward channels," these patterns offer insightful indications for traders. The foundation is laid with the lower trendline, which connects lows and establishes the trend. The "channel line," running parallel to the lower trendline, links highs, solidifying the pattern.
Ascending channels, regarded as a continuation pattern, often break in line with the current trend direction. Savvy traders might explore both long and short trades at both trendlines, anticipating rebounds.
An alternate strategy involves waiting for a trendline breakout. Breaching the upper trendline triggers a robust buy signal, while slipping below the lower trendline implies a compelling sell signal. Breaking the trendline against the trend suggests a significant trend change, while aligned breakout accelerates the existing trend. Prudence is crucial, as channels might witness false or premature breakouts, causing retracements.
These channels serve as valuable predictors of overarching trend shifts. While within the ascending channel, an upward trend remains plausible. Another angle involves tracking where prices stall short of the upper trendline – a potential sign to a trend reversal. In such cases, breaching the lower trendline is more likely.
Often nestled within a broader downtrend, ascending channels mirror either trend continuation or reversal, contingent on breakout direction.
Strategies for Trading Ascending Channels:
1. Measuring Price Targets: Calculate a price target within an ascending channel by measuring its widest point (upper trendline to lower trendline) and adding it to the breakout point for an upward breakout, or subtracting it for a downward one. This provides an outlook on potential price movements.
2. Volume Confirmation: Observe trading volume during channel dealings. Breakouts accompanied by high volume signal reliability and market conviction.
3. Oscillator Use: Incorporate indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to spot overbought or oversold conditions within the channel. Extreme readings suggest possible reversals or pullbacks.
Risks and Considerations:
1. False Breakouts: Channels occasionally yield false breakouts – a brief exit beyond trendlines followed by a return. Wait for confirmation before trading.
2. Timeframe Matters: Ascending channel reliability hinges on the timeframe. Longer-term charts offer robust signals, while shorter-term ones might be noisy.
3. Market Conditions: Evaluate broader market conditions and potential impactful events. Economic releases, geopolitical shifts, and unforeseen news can disrupt technical patterns.
4. Risk Management: Apply proper risk management – set stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses tied to ascending channel patterns.
Ascending channels are indispensable tools for traders, enabling precise trend analysis and informed decision-making. By using chart patterns, technical indicators, and risk management, traders can optimize gains while managing potential risks.
Happy trading!
Never Lose Again: Learn the Classified 5 Secrets to SuccessIn the dynamic realm of forex trading, where global currencies interchange on a constant basis, traders are consistently enticed by the potential for substantial profits. However, the harsh reality remains that a significant portion of forex traders find themselves ensnared in financial losses instead. For aspiring traders, comprehending the underlying reasons behind these losses is not just beneficial, but rather a crucial step in sidestepping common pitfalls and heightening their chances of success.
In this article, we embark on a comprehensive exploration of the key factors that contribute to the losses faced by forex traders. We also offer invaluable insights into skillfully navigating the intricate terrain of the forex market. This is a realm that demands a delicate balance of caution and expertise. By boldly identifying and squarely addressing these stumbling blocks, traders position themselves to acquire the indispensable knowledge and strategies necessary for mitigating risks and ultimately enhancing their overall trading prowess.
Whether you are a seasoned connoisseur of the nuances of forex or a relative newcomer cautiously venturing into the world of currency markets, this guide is tailored to empower you. It equips you not only with the requisite tools for making informed decisions but also with the mindset needed to strive for profitability within the exhilarating yet challenging domain of forex trading.
--- Exploring the Origins of Trading Losses: Unveiling Crucial Insights ---
1) The Allure of Trading Addiction:
One prevalent reason behind trading losses is the phenomenon of trading addiction. Driven by the rush of excitement and the surge of adrenaline that markets can induce, traders often find themselves ensnared in impulsive and irrational decision-making. This addiction to the market's dynamics can lead to neglecting crucial risk management practices. Consequently, the pursuit of significant gains turns into a chase after elusive victories, culminating more often than not in significant financial losses.
2) The Temptation of Overtrading:
Contributing to the landscape of losses is the trap of overtrading. The allure of frequent trades, driven by the belief that more trades equate to higher profits, can lead traders astray. Regrettably, this assumption fails to account for the hidden costs of frequent trading – escalated transaction expenses, heightened vulnerability to market fluctuations, and the eventual exhaustion of emotional reserves. Such an approach invariably corrodes potential gains, paving the way for losses.
3) Emotional Biases and Their Impact:
Emotional biases wield considerable influence in trading losses. Fear and greed, two potent emotions, often cloud rational judgment, leading to impulsive decisions. The fear of missing out (FOMO) drives traders into positions at unfavorable entry points, while the dread of losses triggers premature exits. On the flip side, unchecked greed compels traders to cling onto winning positions for too long, missing opportunities to secure profits.
4) The Void of Risk Management:
A critical contributor to trading losses is the absence of sound risk management practices. Neglecting the implementation of Stop Loss orders or employing disproportionately large positions exposes traders to substantial losses when the market turns against them. Vigilant risk management techniques, including prudent position sizing and strategic use of Stop Loss orders, stand as bulwarks against capital erosion and catastrophic downturns.
5) The Role of Trading Strategies:
Finally, the foundation of trading strategies shapes the trajectory of losses. Relying on unreliable indicators, blindly following unsubstantiated tips, or operating without a well-defined trading plan lays the groundwork for consistent losses. Without a tested and solid strategy, traders find themselves susceptible to impulsive decisions and vulnerable to the sway of emotional biases.
--- Mastering the Art of Forex Profit Protection: 5 Vital Strategies ---
Venturing into the world of forex trading offers the allure of substantial profits, but it's a realm fraught with considerable risks. Safeguarding your financial resources and steering clear of losses demands a disciplined and strategic approach. Here are five indispensable steps to shield your capital and amplify your prospects of success:
1. Operate with Business-like Precision:
Seasoned forex traders recognize that trading isn't a casual pursuit, but a serious business endeavor. This entails crafting a meticulously structured trading plan, setting well-defined goals, and adhering to a disciplined routine. Track your trades, dissect performance metrics, and glean insights from both triumphs and setbacks. Treating trading as a business sharpens your focus and amplifies your chances of sustainable success.
2. Choose Your Broker Wisely:
Your choice of forex broker wields significant influence over your trading journey. Opt for a reputable, regulated broker renowned for transparent pricing, reliable execution, and top-notch customer support. Be wary of brokers with extravagant promises and steer clear of unregulated entities. A trusted broker is your anchor in the unpredictable seas of forex.
3. Tame the Leverage Beast:
Leverage possesses the power to magnify both gains and losses in forex. While the allure of higher leverage is enticing, it accompanies heightened risk. Tread cautiously and employ leverage judiciously, only trading sums within your comfort zone. Reject the allure of excessive leverage that could obliterate your account with a solitary unfavorable market movement.
4. Weave a Web of Risk Management:
Implementing robust risk management practices serves as your fortress against capital erosion. Embed Stop Loss orders within every trade to restrict potential losses. Furthermore, refrain from staking a significant portion of your account on a single trade. A prudent guideline entails risking no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any individual transaction.
5. Navigate with Adaptability:
Forex markets are ever-evolving landscapes. Strategies that thrive in one market scenario might falter in another. Embrace versatility and remain open to recalibrating your approach based on shifting market dynamics. Continually scrutinize market trends and recalibrate your strategy in sync with the tides of change.
Embracing forex trading as a genuine business, making a discerning choice of broker, managing leverage and risks with precision, and adeptly adapting to market shifts can drastically curtail the chances of encountering losses. Keep in mind that trading is an acquired skill honed over time. Success springs from an unwavering commitment to perpetual learning and incremental growth. Cultivate patience, uphold discipline, and fixate on the panorama of long-term profitability.
Bottom Line
In a nutshell, forex trading is like a mixed bag of opportunities and risks. To make the most of it, traders need to understand why losses happen. This helps them improve their game and move towards making profits. Things like letting emotions rule, getting addicted to trading, doing too many trades, not managing risks, and using weak strategies can drain your money.
But don't worry, there's a way out. It's all about being disciplined, using smart ways to manage risks, and being flexible as the market changes. These steps give traders a better shot at success and help them handle the twists and turns of forex trading confidently.
Remember, becoming a successful forex trader is like a journey. It takes learning, patience, and treating every trade seriously, just like running a business.
A Comprehensive Daily Routine of TraderGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView !
Trading in the financial markets is often likened to a battleground of strategies, psychology, and data analysis. To navigate this dynamic landscape successfully, we need more than just luck; we need a well-structured daily routine that blends education, analysis, and real-time decision-making. In this article, we delve into a comprehensive daily routine that can set traders on the path to success.
1. Read Heavy Subjects
Every trader knows that staying ahead in the game requires continuous learning. Reading trading-related books and articles is an essential part of honing one's skills. However, it's not just about skimming through the surface; the real value lies in diving into heavy subjects. Delve into trading psychology, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management.
Psychology books can help you understand the emotional aspect of trading, which often plays a pivotal role in decision-making. On the technical side, learning about chart patterns, indicators, and trend analysis can enhance your ability to identify profitable opportunities. Fundamental analysis books offer insights into evaluating a company's financial health, which is crucial for trading stocks. By dedicating time to reading heavy subjects, traders can fortify their knowledge base and make informed decisions.
2. Learn From Others
In the age of social media and online communities, learning from experienced traders has become more accessible than ever. Platforms like TradingView and Twitter are treasure troves of insights and strategies shared by smart traders. Engaging with these platforms allows you to learn from others' experiences, understand their thought processes, and adopt successful trading strategies.
However, a word of caution is necessary here. While learning from others is valuable, it's crucial to develop your own analytical skills and not blindly follow someone else's advice. Use these insights to inform your decisions, but always verify and validate the information before acting upon it.
3. OnChain Metrics
In the realm of cryptocurrency trading, where blockchain technology reigns, on-chain metrics can be powerful indicators of market trends. Tools like GlassNode and ArkhamIntelligence provide insights into on-chain activities, such as large transactions made by institutional investors (Smart Money) or significant movements by whales (holders of large amounts of cryptocurrency). Monitoring these metrics can give you a sense of potential market movements and sentiment shifts.
However, it's important to remember that while on-chain metrics can provide valuable context, they are not foolproof predictors of price movements. Cryptocurrency markets are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, and combining on-chain data with other types of analysis can yield more accurate insights.
4. Watch the Numbers
In trading, numbers are your allies. Monitoring market data, price movements, trading volumes, and other relevant metrics is a fundamental part of a trader's routine. Platforms like Tokenterminal and DefiLlama provide data on token performance and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, allowing traders to identify trends and potential opportunities.
Unusual spikes or drops in numbers can indicate significant market shifts, which might warrant further investigation. However, like any other analysis method, numbers should be interpreted within the broader market context. One should avoid making impulsive decisions solely based on numerical fluctuations.
Trading is a discipline that requires constant learning, adaptability, and discipline. Following a structured daily routine that involves in-depth reading, learning from experienced traders, monitoring on-chain metrics, and analyzing market numbers can greatly enhance a your chances of success. However, it's important to maintain a critical mindset, verify information, and integrate various analysis methods to make well-informed trading decisions.
Remember, a robust routine combined with a healthy dose of intuition can be a powerful combination in the world of trading.
Avoid getting trapped and hunted by market sharks!Stop Loss Hunt, Liquidity Sweep, Market Manipulation - all of these are fancy names of a highly frequent act performed by big sharks of the market to target the retailers.
- "Oh, do you think they care about my 0.01 lot size?"
Individually, not.
In big volumes, yes.
Textbook chart patterns that are so prominent to us are all subject to going through a liquidation phase. Hence, let's look at some graphical examples that will also be supported by real-market instances:
1) "Head&Shoulders" liquidation
Upon forming a right shoulder and showing initial bearish moves, market participants tend to execute short positions and place their Stop Loss order above the freshly formed shoulder. In that case, there is a high probability that the price will get driven towards the Stop Loss pool, grab liquidity, then continue impulsing in the pre-determined destination.
A live-market example: EUR/GBP Daily Timeframe (period: 28/06/2023 - 16/08/2023)
2) Double Top liquidation
Similar to the previous point, upon forming two tops/heads/reversal points, the price shows some bearish moves and invites sellers to take action before we witness the price impulse towards the upside and grab liquidity where masses have set their Stop Loss levels before resuming its bearish moves
A live-market example: USD/CHF Weekly Timeframe (period: 09/05/2022 - 07/11/2022)
3) Parallel Channel liquidation
Trading within two boundaries of a parallel channel, oftentimes, we may witness how wick spikes are printed and liquidity is grabbed.
A live-market example: USD/CHF Weekly Timeframe (period: 16/01/2023 - 21/08/2023)
4) Ranging Market liquidation
Being stuck in a sideways-moving liquidation box, it is commonly evident how the price triggers the sea of retail Stop Loss orders to both sides of the rectangle with a sole purpose of taking out early entrants before moving in the pre-orchestrated destination.
A live-market example: USD/CHF 8H Timeframe (period: 16/06/2023 - 10/07/2023)
To put all in a nutshell, be careful in order to not fall into the Liquidity Aquarium.
The Contrarian Trader - Going Against The Crowd
Have you ever noticed that when you speak to other traders about the market, your view tends to be the opposite view a lot of the time? You think the market is going down when they think it is going up, and vice versa.
Going against the crowd can be looked down upon by traders, as the majority of them will question your motives or reasoning and tell you that "the trend is your friend." However, it is possible to profit in the markets by trading against the crowd, as the markets rarely go up and down in a straight line. You might just have a contrarian style and way of thinking when it comes to trading the markets, which is perfectly fine as there is more than one way to be consistently profitable trading the markets. In this post, we will delve further into this trading style.
Contrarian traders base their trading strategies on the underlying principle that the market tends to overreact at both extreme highs and lows (supply and demand). These traders see these extremes as opportunities to profit from sharp reversals that can occur when the market corrects from a recent overreaction. All markets are looking for areas of fair value; in other words, buyers and sellers are constantly vying for balance in the markets. If the price of a product has gone up too high (overbought), the demand for that product will come down, so as the demand comes down, the price comes down with it. On the other side, if the price of a product has gone down too low (oversold), the demand for that product will increase, so as the demand goes up, the price goes up with it. In both cases, the price will eventually go to an area that buyers and sellers are satisfied with (fair value), and after some time, the market will look to trend again, either to the upside or downside, and the cycle continues.
A trader taking a contrarian approach will constantly look to determine when the market has reached a level that cannot be sustained with either more buying or more selling. This is why contrarian traders are usually seen as going against the crowd, as this style goes against the current market trend.
Taking a contrarian view to trade the markets requires a very disciplined approach and precise analysis of the market to determine optimal entry and exit points for trades due to the trader trading against the current trend. Contrarians' analysis methods can come in the form of technical, fundamental, or market sentiment.
Technical Contrarian Trading
Technical contrarians typically specialise in going against current trends, not following them. Therefore, when used by a contrarian, their technical analysis tends to be employed to look for situations that are primed for a significant market reversal. These can be in the form of chart price action or technical indicators.
Price action reversal trading
Reversal traders strive to pinpoint the moments when the market will change direction; these are mostly known as 'market tops and bottoms'. These traders anticipate a reversal at these market extremes, as they tend to take the other side of the crowd's market view. Contrarian traders will often look for reversal patterns that tend to take place near market tops and bottoms; candlestick patterns such as 'morning/evening stars' and reversal chart patterns such as 'double tops/bottoms' are very popular price action confirmation signals for contrarian traders. A key benefit of these setups is that they provide great risk-to-reward opportunities for contrarians due to the fact that the trader can place their stop loss just above or below the market high or low to potentially earn multiple amounts of their risk if the trade does not get stopped out.
Double Top
Morning Star
Indicators
Contrarians might use oscillators that can help them identify overbought or oversold market situations that are due for a reversal. Oscillators operate by plotting the output of that specific indicator between two extreme values. These two extreme values are used by the trader to help predict the overbought and oversold points in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the Stochastic Oscillator can both be used for this purpose. Moving averages and their crossovers, or a related technical indicator like the MACD, can also be used in this manner. These also provide traders with great risk-reward opportunities, as oscillators usually (but not all the time) provide overbought and oversold signals near market tops and bottoms.
RSI and Stochastic Oscillator
Fundamental Contrarian Trading
A contrarian trader that uses fundamental data in their trade analysis might use the release of major economic data to enter or exit a position. This can be a country's central bank interest rate decision or a country's gross domestic product (GDP) reading as a contrarian indicator. An example of this would be that instead of entering a long position in a product after an interest rate hike, the contrarian might wait for the release of the data and then sell the product once it has reached a certain overbought level in response to the favourable news. They would do this in anticipation of the market buyers exiting their long positions to profit-take as the upside momentum starts to fade and the profit-taking activity sets in. The same goes with a negative data reading; instead of entering a short position with the crowd after the negative reading, a contrarian trader might wait for the release of the data and then enter a buy position once the product has reached a certain oversold level in response to the unfavourable news. They would do this in anticipation of the market sellers exiting their short positions to profit-take as the downside momentum starts to fade and the profit-taking activity sets in.
US Dollar Index: US Pending Home Sales for June 2023
Market Sentiment: Contrarian Trading
Contrarians use this to assess the overall mood or sentiment of market participants. This is particularly crucial to contrarian traders when it is overwhelmingly positive or negative, as these could indicate an impending market reversal. Famous contrarian trader and investor Warren Buffet has a saying: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When you hear this quote, you can't help but question if he has a point, as on average, around 75–80% of traders are unprofitable. Monitoring the crowd’s mood or sentiment gives the contrarian the insight and resolve needed to determine an ideal entry point for initiating a trading position. The psychology behind the crowd’s position is also very important, since excessive optimism in a rising market or constant pessimism in a falling market are well-recognised signs of incoming market reversals that a contrarian trader looks for.
Psychology plays a key role in all markets because supply and demand factors reflect the different opinions of participants in the market. In practice, applying the contrarian theory means looking for situations characterised by very one-sided or "crowded" market psychology. This allows smart money to call market reversals ahead of the actual countertrend market movement occurring, and contrarians typically set up their trading plans to reflect this understanding.
Risks and Challenges of Contrarian Trading
Contrarian trading carries significant risk. A market that continues trending in one direction longer than a contrarian trader anticipates, potentially leading to severe losses. Effective risk management is paramount in contrarian trading. Traders should use strict stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and take-profit orders to secure profits when the price moves in the desired direction. This makes accurately predicting market reversals quite challenging, and contrarians can get severely burned trying to pick tops and bottoms, especially in aggressive bull or bear market runs. While technical analysis tools can offer valuable insights, they are imperfect and should be used with other forms of analysis. Additionally, contrarian trading often requires a great deal of patience, as the market may take time to correct and profitable opportunities may not present themselves immediately.
Bitcoin's Bull Market Run 2021
Contrarian trading may not be suitable for all traders. It requires a high level of expertise and very quick thinking under stressful conditions, along with the fortitude not to get influenced or pressured by other traders. A trader that is limited by these requirements and trades this way will have very inconsistent results that will leave the trader feeling guilty about losing money due to trading against the market and will most likely quit due to the frustration from these losses.
Contrarian trading is a strategy that can be highly profitable if used correctly. However, it is important for traders to approach this strategy with caution and a clear understanding of its risks and limitations, and most importantly, to understand that the market must be respected; otherwise, it will humble you very quickly. Correctly identifying potential opportunities to take contrarian positions takes dedicated planning in setting entry and exit points and managing risk correctly. If all this is done consistently, traders can increase their chances of being profitable by trading this way.
BluetonaFX
Six Ingredients to be a TraderGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView !
Financial markets offers limitless opportunities for earning and investing. Amidst all the available instruments, trading stands out as an exhilarating realm of dealing with securities, currencies, and other assets.
But how do you know if trading is the right path for you?
In this article, we will explore key aspects that will help you determine whether trading is your true calling.
Analytical Mind and Problem-Solving Skills: Traders need to analyze market data, predict trends, and make swift decisions. If you relish solving complex problems and seek rational approaches to decision-making, this is an indicator that trading could align with your strengths.
Patience and Self-Discipline: Success in the world of trading doesn't come overnight. Patience and a willingness to work on your skills will help you endure tough moments and maintain composure during market fluctuations.
Interest in Financial Markets: If you've always been intrigued by finance, economics, and global events that impact the market, trading can become an intellectually engaging pursuit for you.
Readiness for Continuous Learning: Markets are constantly changing, requiring traders to refresh their knowledge and skills. If you're willing to keep learning and evolving, you'll find the world of trading both engaging and vital.
Emotional Resilience: Trading can be emotionally draining, particularly during rapid market shifts. The ability to control fear, greed, and euphoria is crucial for a trader.
Tolerance for Risk: Trading comes with the risk of capital loss. If you're prepared to logically evaluate risks and make informed decisions, it can be an indicator of your suitability for this endeavor.
Trading is a captivating and intricate domain that isn't suitable for everyone. If you possess qualities such as an analytical mind, patience, an interest in finance, and a capacity for continuous learning, you have the potential to become a successful trader.
Remember that success in trading demands self-improvement, ongoing education, and adept emotional management.
Removing the Guesswork from Trading: Is Trading Gambling?Hello traders of @TradingView community!
Today, let's delve into a question that often arises in the trading: Is trading really just another form of gambling? While both trading and gambling involve risk and speculation, they differ fundamentally in their approaches and outcomes.
Trading, unlike gambling, is not about chance or luck. It's about making informed decisions based on analysis, strategy, and market trends. Successful traders rely on research, technical and fundamental analysis, and risk management to guide their actions. They aim to identify patterns and trends that increase their probabilities of making profitable trades.
On the other hand, gambling is typically a game of chance where the outcome is largely unpredictable. Whether you're playing roulette or rolling dice, the result is random, and your chances of winning are often determined by luck. While some aspects of trading might resemble gambling to an outsider, the key difference is the level of control and analysis involved.
Traders use various tools and methodologies to minimize uncertainty and make calculated decisions. They set entry and exit points, incorporate stop-loss orders, and diversify their portfolios to manage risk.
Traders focus on developing and executing long-term strategies, steadily building profits over time. In contrast, gambling often entails short-term bets with instant outcomes.
Unlike gambling, trading emphasizes risk management. Traders implement stop-loss orders and diversification to protect their investments, showcasing their control over potential losses.
In conclusion, trading is far from gambling. It's an intricate practice that requires education, analysis, discipline, and continuous learning. While both involve risk, trading is grounded in strategy and knowledge, allowing traders to manage their risk and work towards achieving their financial goals.
[Education] How To Be Consistent & Master TradingTrading has always been an alluring career. The promise of financial freedom and the ability to escape the chains of a 9-5 job have led many individuals to explore the world of trading.
This is the same for me. I've first came across trading when I was serving in the army when I was 18. Trading is a whole new world to me. Candlesticks, expert advisors, and indicators all promised a world of luxury and freedom.
However, the path to becoming a successful trader is not an easy one. It requires discipline, knowledge, and the ability to control one's emotions.
My journey was constantly on and off, looking at small successes, then followed by big failures. It was around 5 years ago when I started to be serious in my trading career. It's definitely not a short one, but it's not long either.
In this article, I will delve into the key factors that can help you become a successful trader. From developing a systematic trading system to mastering risk management and overcoming emotional hurdles, we will cover it all. So, let's embark on this journey and unlock the secrets to becoming a profitable trader.
One of the key components of becoming a successful trader is the development of a systematic trading system. Without a well-thought-out plan, trading becomes a chaotic and unpredictable process. As the famous quote goes,
Knowledge is power, but without action, it is useless.
It is not enough to possess knowledge about various trading concepts and indicators. You must have a fixed strategy that you consistently trade with.
You fall into the trap of having a scattered approach to trading. You lack a well-defined trading plan and jump from one strategy to another, hoping to find the holy grail of trading. This lack of consistency and focus leads to poor results and frustration.
It took me years to be profitable. I tried many expert advisors, signals, indicator, PAMM and account management. It took me years of losses. Is it worth it? Probably. I could have accelerated my journey with a good and solid mentor. It took me years to condense my experiences into the trading system below.
Start by marking up your charts and identifying areas of liquidity, points of interest, and demand and supply zones. Conduct a thorough multi-timeframe analysis to identify higher probability trade opportunities. Set alerts at your points of interest to ensure you don't miss any trading opportunities.
Once a trade setup is triggered, write down your analysis on the chart. Clearly articulate what you expect to happen when the price hits your point of interest. This will help you stay focused on your trade plan and avoid impulsive decision-making.
When the alert goes off, evaluate your analysis to ensure it still holds true. If it does, mark out your stop loss and profit target levels based on your risk management principles. Confirm that the risk-to-reward ratio is suitable before entering the trade. If necessary, wait for additional confirmation on a lower timeframe before executing the trade.
Once in the trade, you have the option to either actively manage your position or let it run its course. This decision should be based on your backtesting results and personal preferences. Regardless of your approach, it is crucial to journal your trades. Record your entry, take-profit, and stop-loss levels, as well as any emotions or thoughts you experienced during the trade. This data will be invaluable for analyzing your performance and identifying areas for improvement.
Emotions can be both a greatest ally and a worst enemy. It is crucial to develop emotional discipline and learn how to control your feelings when making trading decisions. Emotions such as fear, greed, and impatience can cloud your judgment and lead to impulsive and irrational trading actions.
One common emotional pitfall is revenge trading. After experiencing a loss, you often feel the need to immediately recoup their losses by taking impulsive trades. This behavior is driven by anger and a desire to prove oneself right. However, revenge trading rarely ends well and typically leads to further losses.
I wasn't good at controlling my emotions in the past. I tend to get angry and sad whenever I had a losing trade. This is made worse when I was having a losing streak. I would deviate from my trading plan and enter into a position when it does not fit my trading plan. You guessed it, I went deeper into drawdown and this vicious cycle continues.
To overcome emotional hurdles, it is essential to stick to your trading plan and follow your predetermined rules. Trust the process and have faith in your strategy. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements or emotional reactions.
One effective way to maintain emotional discipline is through the use of a trading journal. By documenting your trades and recording your emotions and thoughts, you can gain valuable insights into your trading psychology. Reviewing your journal regularly will help you identify patterns and emotional triggers, allowing you to develop strategies to manage your emotions effectively.
Successful trading is not just about making profitable trades. It is also about managing risk. Risk management is the key to preserving capital and ensuring long-term profitability. Without proper risk management, even the most profitable trading strategy can lead to financial ruin.
A crucial aspect of risk management is determining an appropriate position size for each trade. This involves calculating the amount you are willing to risk on each trade based on your account size and risk tolerance. I recommend risking no more than 1% of your trading account on any single trade. This conservative approach helps protect your capital and prevents catastrophic losses.
I once had a losing streak of 7 trades. On the 8th trade, everything was telling me that I should go long on EURUSD. It was a A+ setup. Everything followed my plan. I increased my risk from 1% to 10%. Guess what? I lost this trade.
Anything can happen in the market.
Even with a 80% win rate trading system, it may seem impossible to have 10 losing trades in a row. Statistically speaking, it IS possible.
Another important risk management technique is the use of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss order is a predetermined price level at which you will exit a trade to limit your losses. By setting a stop loss, you define your maximum acceptable loss on a trade. This helps protect your trading account from significant drawdowns and allows you to maintain emotional discipline during adverse market conditions.
Trailing stop-loss orders can also be used to protect profits as a trade moves in your favor. This allows you to lock in profits while still allowing the trade to potentially run in your favor.
Becoming a successful trader requires practice and screen time. The more time you spend observing the markets, analyzing charts, and executing trades, the better you will become at identifying patterns and making informed trading decisions.
Practice is especially crucial to you if you are still developing your skills and gaining experience. Consider starting with a demo account to familiarize yourself with the trading platform and practice your strategy without risking real money. This allows you to refine your trading approach and gain confidence before transitioning to a live trading account.
As you gain experience and confidence, gradually increase the size of your trades while maintaining proper risk management principles. This gradual progression will help you build consistency and avoid the pitfalls of overtrading or taking excessive risks.
For many of you, finding an accountability partner is your path to success. An accountability partner is someone who holds you responsible for your trading actions and helps you stay on track with your goals. They can provide support, guidance, and feedback on your trading performance. Regular check-ins and discussions with your accountability partner can help you stay disciplined and focused on your trading plan.
Accountability partners can offer valuable support, tips and motivation. Conduct thorough research and due diligence to ensure that you are partnering with reputable individuals who have a proven track record. Records should also be verified by third parties such as Myfxbook and not excel, where they can write anything they want.
If you've been following me for the past few months or years, you would have known about my journey from being an unprofitable trader to a profitable one. I believe I'm successful right now, and is well on track to quitting my 9-5 job. I have a prop firm funded account journey here, where I document my journey to get a public 10k account for growing my YouTube channel. I also have a verified public track record.
Right now, I'm currently $230,000 funded, with 2x $200,000 challenges in Phase 2, and 1x $200,000 in phase 1. If I manage to pass these challenges, my AUM will jump up to $830,000.
Becoming a successful trader is a journey that requires discipline, knowledge, and emotional discipline. By developing a systematic trading system, managing risk effectively, and maintaining emotional discipline, you can increase your chances of achieving profitability in the financial markets.
Remember to focus on the process rather than the outcome. Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme, but rather a long-term endeavor that requires continuous learning and adaptation. Be patient, stay committed to your trading plan, and continuously work on improving your skills.
With the right mindset, dedication, and a commitment to continuous learning, you can unlock the potential of trading and work towards achieving your financial goals. So, embark on this journey with confidence and embrace the challenges that lie ahead.
Happy trading!
Let me know if this post resonates with you. If it does, how does it relates to you!
Poker + Trading = Winning HandHello dear @TradingView community! Today let’s focus on how Poker game enhances trading excellence.
In the sports, athletes often engage in cross-training to prevent injuries and boost performance.
For instance, football players explore swimming and weight trainings, while runners embrace activities like hiking and cycling. But have you ever considered a form of mental cross-training that could significantly improve your trading skills? Enter the arena of virtual poker.
Picture this: Poker and trading, both sedentary pursuits where your mind takes center stage. In the same way athletes focus on honing specific muscle groups, traders must nurture their mental agility. In this realm, poker emerges as potent tool for refining skills that transcend the trading landscape.
1. Risk Management: A Calculated Gamble
In the world of poker, going "all in" can swiftly lead to losing everything on a weak hand, much akin to the risks of trading. Strategic players understand the value of managing risks. Just as traders avoid recklessly investing their entire capital, poker players refrain from putting all their chips on the line. The lesson is clear: prudent risk management is the bedrock of success.
When trading, the rule of never jeopardizing more than 1% of your account on a single trade reigns supreme. This practice mimics poker's ante system, where even a $100 buy-in allows you to engage in up to 100 hands, each risking only 1%. By staying in control and considering odds, both poker players and traders minimize the chances of "blowing up" their hard-earned gains.
2. Emotional Mastery: The Art of the Poker Face
A trader's prowess lies in following set rules and staying emotionally neutral. In trading, think "Spock-like" focus, or the legendary "poker face." Concealing emotions and making calculated moves regardless of the hand you're dealt defines success.
Just as a poker player keeps a straight face to prevent opponents from reading their hand, traders curb emotional impulses that can lead to hasty decisions.
3. Probabilities and Persistence
Ever heard the phrase "You gotta be in it to win it"? While it may apply to lotteries, poker and trading echo a more nuanced sentiment. In both arenas, it's about understanding the odds and playing consistently.
Just as a skilled poker player capitalizes on favorable odds to raise the stakes, traders must recognize high-probability patterns and seize opportunities.
4. Humility: Staying Grounded in a Fickle Realm
In poker, overconfidence can be fatal. The same rings true in trading. A winning streak can inflate one's ego, leading to rash decisions. A humbling poker loss teaches the crucial lesson of respecting probabilities and staying vigilant.
By acknowledging that the market, like the poker table, is unpredictable, traders guard against costly mistakes borne from hubris.
5. Setting Financial Goals: Knowing When to Fold
Casinos shower players with perks, knowing the allure of winning often overshadows rationality. Similarly, traders who've experienced an early-session surge often squander gains through overtrading.
Establishing a financial target and having the discipline to "fold" when achieved prevents pitfalls fueled by greed. Just as a poker player may walk away after doubling their money, traders secure profits by adhering to predefined goals.
6. Community and Learning: The Power of Like-Minded Allies
Thriving in a community of dedicated individuals fuels growth. Poker players and traders alike benefit from shared insights and experiences. Engaging in online poker communities or joining global poker circles offers a haven for mutual learning.
As traders refine their craft, they unlock not only poker prowess but also a deeper understanding of market dynamics.
Intriguingly, virtual poker emerges as an unexpected but valuable ally for traders seeking to enhance their skills. It's more than a game; it's a training ground for honing the mental acuity vital for success in trading's challenging realm. So, are you ready to deal your hand and sharpen your trading edge?
Remember, whether you're at the poker table or the trading desk, calculated moves, emotional control, strategic thinking, and community engagement are your aces in the hole.
Best of luck, and who knows, maybe we'll even cross paths at the poker table one day!
The Cup and Handle Pattern in TradingGreetings, fellow traders and investors of @TradingView 📈🚀
Keep your eye for cup and handle pattern, a chart formation that hints at potential market possibilities.
The Cup and Handle:
Visualize a cup, complete with a 'U' shape and accompanied by a handle. This chart pattern mimics that very shape, capturing price shifts that can hint at noteworthy market movements. Here's the essence: a cup forms through a gradual downward trajectory, leading to a stabilizing phase, and eventually, a rally that mirrors the extent of the initial decline. This sequence of price action is pivotal in identifying the characteristic cup and handle formation.
Initiated by low trading volume, the formation gathers momentum with rising volume as the left lip of the cup takes form. Subsequently, volume recedes near the cup's bottom, only to surge again towards the right lip and breakout.
The initiation involves a dip in price, followed by stabilization, and finally, a rally that aims to retrace the plummet's impact.
As the cup materializes, it curves into a 'U' shape, while the price dips slightly to craft the handle. Notably, the handle must be smaller than the cup and should exhibit a minor downward trend within the trading range. It's imperative that the handle doesn't dip below one-third of the cup's depth.
Strategy and Execution
Now, how can you effectively trade this compelling pattern? The strategy involves positioning a limit buy order just above the upper resistance of the cup and handle. Simultaneously, set a stop-loss order slightly below the handle's support. This calculated approach ensures that your buy order triggers only when the price breaks through the upper resistance level. This cautious measure shields you from premature entry due to false breakouts.
For traders seeking an extra layer of assurance, patiently waiting for the price to conclusively close above the upper trendline of the handle can provide a higher degree of certainty before initiating the trade.
🌟 Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes as you leverage insights from @Vestinda. Remember, patience and careful analysis are your allies on trading path.
Happy trading! 💰
Boom And Bust Cycle of BitcoinGreetings, esteemed members of the @TradingView community and all Vesties out there!
The financial markets is a complex and dynamic arena where investors seek to capitalize on opportunities and generate profits.
One recurring phenomenon in the financial world is the "boom and bust cycle", characterized by periods of rapid asset price escalation followed by sudden and often dramatic declines. Understanding this cycle is crucial for investors to make informed decisions and navigate market volatility effectively. In this article, we will delve into the life cycle of a bubble within the context of the financial markets, using the Bitcoin price chart as a compelling example. Additionally, we will explore how Bitcoin's circulating supply contributes to its perceived value.
The Anatomy of a Bubble:
A bubble refers to a speculative phase during which the prices of assets, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, soar to unsustainable levels fueled by investor euphoria, media hype, and the fear of missing out (FOMO). These bubbles are often followed by a sharp correction or crash, resulting in significant losses for those caught up in the frenzy. The cycle typically consists of four key phases:
a) Stealth Phase: Prices begin to rise slowly, driven by fundamental factors or innovative breakthroughs. Initial interest is limited, and only a few astute investors take notice.
b) Awareness Phase: Media coverage and public attention increase as prices gain momentum. More investors start to notice the rising prices and may begin to invest, contributing to further price appreciation.
c) Mania Phase: FOMO sets in as a growing number of investors rush to buy the asset, driving prices to astronomical heights. Speculative behavior dominates, and valuations become detached from underlying fundamentals.
d) Blow-Off Phase: The bubble reaches its peak, and prices begin to plummet as profit-taking and panic selling ensue. The market experiences a rapid decline, erasing gains made during the boom phase.
Bitcoin's Boom and Bust Cycle Example:
Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has experienced multiple boom-bust cycles since its inception. One particularly notable example is the bubble of 2016-2017-2018 period:
a) Stealth Phase: Bitcoin's price had been steadily increasing due to growing interest and adoption within the tech and financial communities.
b) Awareness Phase: Media coverage intensified, drawing mainstream attention to the soaring Bitcoin prices. Retail investors started entering the market.
c) Mania Phase: The price skyrocketed to nearly $20,000 per Bitcoin, fueled by widespread FOMO. New investors poured money into the market, believing the rally would continue indefinitely.
d) Blow-Off Phase: The bubble burst, and Bitcoin's price tumbled, ultimately losing over 80% of its value. Many inexperienced investors who bought at the peak faced substantial losses.
The Role of Bitcoin's Circulating Supply:
Bitcoin's circulating supply, the total number of coins available for trading in the market, plays a crucial role in shaping its perceived value. The scarcity of Bitcoin is often cited as a driving factor behind its price appreciation. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, the principle of supply and demand suggests that as demand for Bitcoin increases, its price should rise over time.
a) Halving Events: Approximately every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a "halving" event, where the rate at which new Bitcoins are mined is cut in half. This scarcity-inducing mechanism further accentuates the notion of limited supply, potentially driving up prices.
b) Investor Perception: Investors often view Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial markets. As this perception grows, demand for Bitcoin increases, putting upward pressure on its price.
Understanding the life cycle of a bubble is essential for investors to make informed decisions and mitigate the risks associated with market volatility.
By examining the case of Bitcoin's boom and bust cycle and considering the impact of its circulating supply, we gain valuable insights into how market dynamics and human behavior can shape asset prices. As the financial world continues to evolve, these lessons remain relevant, serving as a reminder of the importance of rational investment strategies and a clear understanding of market fundamentals.
The Quest for the Trading "Holy Grail": A Realistic PerspectiveDiscover why the concept of a trading "holy grail" is more myth than reality. Why successful trading involves understanding market uncertainties, human behavior, and adaptable strategies?
Experienced traders know: there's no magical "holy grail" guaranteeing 100% profits. In truth, consistent traders recognize losses as much a part of trading as gains. Despite this, a stream of novice traders still seek the one-size-fits-all path to profitability.
Consider these three reasons why discovering a trading "holy grail" is as likely as reaching the sun:
Unpredictable Market Uncertainties: The market's complexity thwarts all-knowing predictions. Influences are countless, making extended manipulation improbable. Unless you've got superpowers foreseeing central banker statements or impending crises, the holy grail remains elusive.
Human Behavior Influences Markets: Human decisions continue to shape market dynamics. While automated systems play a role, it's human actions that cause market fluctuations. Trading opportunities emerge from discrepancies between price and value, often influenced by individual interpretations. Variations in approaches, like Nick vs. Mike, and factors like John's hesitance to cut losses, contribute to market complexities.
Adaptable Strategies are Essential: Market patterns echo human behavior, but shifting conditions render "surefire" systems obsolete. The ebb of trend-following tools demonstrates adaptability's importance. Profits hinge on discretion, recognizing pattern shifts, and mastering risk management.
Remember, a holy grail isn't essential for trading success. Full-time and part-time traders alike profit with prudent risk management. Understanding of risk management — your keys to sustainable trading success.
Overview of the Elliott Wave TheoryThe theory of Elliott Waves, an intricate subject we've delved into in previous posts, beckons me once more to distill its essence. Let's gather the pivotal elements anew, unraveling the complexities to forge a deeper understanding.
Elliott Waves exhibit fractal characteristics. Each wave possesses segments that closely resemble the entire wave, a quality known in mathematics as "self-similarity."
A trending market adheres to a distinct 5-3 wave structure.
The initial 5-wave pattern is termed the impulse wave.
One among the three impulse waves (1, 3, or 5) always extends, with Wave 3 typically being the elongated one.
The subsequent 3-wave pattern is recognized as the corrective wave, denoted by letters A, B, and C in lieu of numbers for tracking the correction.
Waves 1, 3, and 5 consist of smaller 5-wave impulse patterns, while Waves 2 and 4 are comprised of lesser 3-wave corrective sequences.
While there exist 21 varieties of corrective patterns, they fundamentally stem from three straightforward and comprehensible formations.
These core corrective wave shapes encompass zig-zags, flats, and triangles.
Three fundamental principles define the labeling of waves within the Elliott Wave Theory:
First Principle: Wave 3 must NEVER be the shortest impulse wave.
Second Principle: Wave 2 must NEVER surpass the commencement point of Wave 1.
Third Principle: Wave 4 must NEVER overlap with the price region of Wave 1.
Upon thorough chart analysis, you'll observe that the market indeed advances in waves.
Since the market seldom conforms precisely to theoretical models, honing your ability to analyze waves requires extensive practice over numerous hours before you find yourself at ease with Elliott waves.
🙌🏻Persevere diligently and remain steadfast in your pursuit!Happy trading!
Your Kateryna💙💛
Using the Research Method in TradingGreetings, fellow traders!
Trading is both an art and a science, and the research method is your secret weapon to unraveling market intricacies. It's about adopting a systematic approach, making informed decisions, and refining your strategies based on solid data.
Applying a analytic mindset in trading can offer a valuable edge. Let's explore the basics of the research method and how you can integrate it into your trading practices.
Start with Observation:
Just like scientists, traders begin by carefully observing the markets, noting patterns, and identifying repeat occurrences or random incidents. This process helps build a comprehensive understanding of market factors, that influence price action.
Formulate Hypotheses:
Based on your observations, create hypotheses or assumptions to explain market behavior. These hypotheses act as initial theories that can be tested for validity.
Test Your Hypotheses:
Conduct empirical tests by taking trades, that align with your hypotheses. Record the results and analyze how price action unfolds. Keep a detailed trade journal to document your observations.
Embrace Open-Mindedness:
Remain open to new data and market complexities. The markets are ever-changing, and no hypothesis is an absolute truth. Be prepared to adjust your trading strategies based on new information and shifts in market sentiment.
Fine-Tune Your Trading Plan:
Use the insights gained from testing your hypotheses to fine-tune your trading plan. Continuously refine your strategies based on new observations, and be flexible in adapting to changing market conditions.
Treat Each Trade as a Learning Opportunity:
View each trade as a source of valuable information, regardless of the outcome. Learn from both winning and losing trades to enhance your understanding of the markets and improve your trading approach.
By integrating the research method into your trading routine, you can enhance your decision-making process, manage risks more effectively, and avoid overconfidence.
Stay curious, keep learning. Happy trading!