[Education] You Are Dumb For Not Using A Stop LossThe Illusion of the “Perfect Routine” and Trading Psychology
I always thought that if I did the million-dollar morning routine, take ice bath, meditate, and practice mindfulness, my trading psychology will be fixed.
Whenever I see price is moving in my favour, I shifted my stop loss to secure profits. It’s fine right? It’s never wrong to secure real profits rather than letting it be an unrealized gain. I see the price took me out as my stop loss is too tight. The price went higher and higher without me. If only I had followed my trading plan which is to do nothing until price has shown bullish impulse.
When I see that price made an impulsive move in my favour, I will wait a little while longer to secure my profits. I know my trading plan is telling me to close the position now. But let’s see if we can milk some more profits from the market. As the dipped, I promise to close my position at my original take profit price. Price continued to dip and take me out at breakeven.
Whenever I see price is approaching my stop loss, I extended my stop loss and pray hard that price will not take my position out. It’s fine right? As long as I close it at breakeven when price comes back. I waited and waited, and watched the price goes lower and lower, with my unrealized loss getting bigger and bigger. From a originally planned $100 loss, it became a $1,200 loss. It was supposed to be a 1% loss, but it turns out to be a 12% loss on my $10,000 account.
“There must be something wrong with my trading psychology.” I thought to myself. So off I went to YouTube, X, Tiktok and Instagram to look at psychology posts and videos. I gave myself mental pleasure by ensuring that I will follow my system. Then the cycle repeat itself.
Core Trading Problems That Sabotage Your Success
There are a few problems that we face as a trader.
Greed, the innate emotion that all of us have. When I waited for a while to close my position, I have already secured a hefty profit which will be realized if I followed my trading plan. However, due to greed and thinking that this trade will be the homerun trade, I let greed took over my thinking. Eventually I ended up with nothing, forgoing all my profits because I think that price will continue going in my favour.
Fear, another innate emotion that haunts all of us. Trading live means we do not know what price will do in the future. Our next trade can be a big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, or a normal loss. If you took a big loss, then you have a position sizing issue. We fear that if this is really the homerun trade, and if you followed your trading plan, you will miss out on the potential 10% extra profits. But think again, how often do this kind of runs happen?
Failure to understand these problems will have a lot of consequences to your trading career. Even with a solid trading strategy with a positive expected value, you will not actualize these results you got from your backtest. You can have an average expected return of 4% per trade, but if you don’t follow your trading system, your results will be randomized. This will make you go in a loop like this: “Backtest a new trading strategy -> Got hopeful results -> Trade live -> Don’t follow trading plan -> Watch even more trading psychology videos -> Switch to a new strategy”. The cycle will continue and you will waste precious money and time.
You want to achieve financial freedom and success through trading, right? Why would you want to waste precious money and time doing the same thing over and over again?
Why a Backtested Strategy Can Make or Break Your Trading
Yes it takes discipline to follow your trading system. But do you know what else is needed? A solid fool-proof backtest result. Have a set of backtested data ready. Have that set of data be so good that you will look like a fool for not following that trading system. If the trading system can make you 100% profits consistently every month, will you not follow your trading rules? I’m exaggerating here of course, it’s hard to achieve 100% profits consistently every month. But I’m showing you how it’s dumb of you not to follow your trading rules if it has already proven you will be profitable just by executing your trading strategy and following your trading rules. By having the set of backtested data, you are also able to estimate how your drawdown curve will look like. If it shows you on average you will experience a 6% drawdown, then if you’re at 3% drawdown, why would you be afraid of taking trades?
If you’ve been following me on my journey, you would have seen my progression. I’ve manage to break free of my unprofitable self to a consistent profitable trader now. How? Just by having a solid trading strategy with more than 1000 backtested data points. It’s simple, but not easy. Do you even keep a record of your backtested data? Do you know your average drawdown %? Probably not. I have an excel sheet made just for recording your backtested data.
Remember, trading is not easy, but the process is simple. Stay consistent and trade safe.
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Educationalposts
Bitcoin weekly chart. A hint at how its price may head very soon
My understanding is that BTCUSD has already broken the breakout top-line of the weekly cup, it was a price at about 73,750. I could be wrong, but approximately correct. This means BTCUSD has broken out already.
This weekly chart of bitcoin contains the famous weekly head n shoulders pattern that first started forming back in 2021 or was it 2022? Either year is long enough.
In the chart you will also see a rising wedge on this weekly chart. Well bitcoin is climbing to the top right now and does not have far to go. USD might be very strong today so it may not be the session for Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is so resilient to the USD that anything is possible and BTCUSD moves fast when it wants.
Price will bounce out of the top of wedge and become independent to formations, before it makes a short retrace and then heads over the critical area which is the Cup top-lining. This will probably happen very quickly but there should be a retest of the breakout zone.
Also, you want to view the price action on a very low time frame, like 1m to 5m. There will probably be a bullish rising wedge that price also moves in before separating and breaking out.
Good luck.
Cryptocurrency ADAUSD CARDANO: Next to break out.
I bought into this one recently but it was weighing heavily since the purchase in terms of price not quite breaking-out enough, but that all changed today as Cardano moves out of its squeeze and into climbing and rallying mode.
Earlier in 2024 it entered a Supply-downtrend but in recent months buying entered into Cardano and the charts stated to expand with some volatility to upside prices.
A breakout "jump" is what ADAUSD set-out to do in 2024 and with supply switching mostly over to demand and with Bitcoin now very close to 71,000, that time is near.
This is all you need to get started: a paper trading account!Starting your trading journey wisely means utilizing a Paper Trading account, also known as a demo account. This account simulates the real trading experience by mirroring market movements and conditions, but operates without the risk of losing real money. It offers traders access to comprehensive market data just like a live account, enabling practice with real-world price fluctuations—if Gold (XAU/USD) experiences a 5% rise or fall, the same scenario reflects in the demo account. This provides an excellent opportunity to understand market dynamics without financial exposure.
A Beginner's Best Friend: The Demo Account
For novice traders, a demo account is an essential entry point into the financial markets. It allows individuals to familiarize themselves with various trading aspects and strategies. Many traders base their transition to live trading on the insights and performance gleaned from their demo accounts. The convenience of setting one up is straightforward—simply use the Paper Trading option on TradingView to practice with a simulated account.
Click on the Trading Panel of your chart, and you'll find the Paper Trading option on TradingView.
Advanced Applications for Experienced Traders
However, the utility of demo accounts isn’t confined to just beginners; seasoned traders also derive significant benefits.
Experimenting with New Strategies
Experienced traders frequently utilize demo accounts to try out and assess new trading strategies. This method serves as a safe way to test different approaches without putting their capital at risk.
Evaluating Automated Tools
Developers of trading bots and algorithms rely on demo accounts for comprehensive testing of their tools. These automated systems undergo rigorous backtesting in a zero-risk environment, ensuring they are ready for live trading scenarios.
Training and Development
Demo accounts serve as effective training platforms for both individual traders and those employed within financial institutions. Whether it’s a retail trader or a professional in a hedge fund, these accounts offer vital learning experiences that hone skills effectively.
Skill Development and Confidence Building
The benefits of demo accounts extend to enhancing both technical and soft skills. Fundamental competencies such as market analysis, strategy formation, and data interpretation can be improved in a low-stakes setting. Meanwhile, soft skills like patience, resilience, and adaptability receive a boost, ultimately shaping a well-rounded trader.
Moreover, the journey can build confidence. Since trading can be intricate and losing money can shake one's self-assurance, a demo account provides a haven for refining trading strategies without risking actual funds. This psychological support can significantly influence success in the live markets, where self-confidence is often linked to profitability.
How Long Should You Practice?
The duration one should spend in a demo account varies, influenced by personal factors. For those transitioning to full-time trading, a minimum of three months is advisable. Though this may seem lengthy, it is a small price to pay for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and a variety of trading conditions.
The Advantages of Practicing Day Trading in a Demo Account
1- Accelerated Learning
Utilizing non-market hours for practice enables traders to quickly accumulate experience, far exceeding what can be gained during regular market sessions.
2- Preparedness for Quick Decisions
Day trading requires rapid decision-making skills. Regular practice in a demo account equips traders to respond swiftly to market fluctuations.
3- Intuitive Market Recognition
Frequent practice encourages an instinctual grasp of market conditions, vital for timely and effective trading actions.
4- Confidence in Trading Decisions
Confidence plays a critical role in a day trader's success. Thorough practice in a risk-free environment allows traders to build confidence before they step into live trading.
5- Adaptability to Market Variability
Day traders often experience victories and losses. Practicing within a controlled environment fosters a clear mindset to tackle each trade, essential for adapting to shifting market scenarios.
6- Setting Realistic Income Expectations
Repeated practice enables traders to set achievable income expectations, cultivating a sensible outlook prior to committing to full-time trading.
7- Enhancing Chart Analysis Skills
A demo account encourages traders to develop chart reading abilities without becoming overly reliant on them, promoting a balanced analytical approach.
8- Personal Trading Style Development
The complexities of day trading call for personalized strategies. Regular practice in a demo account allows traders to foster their unique trading styles and embrace accountability for their decisions.
9- Effective Risk Management
Practicing with margin in a demo account allows traders to experiment with leverage while treating each trade seriously.
Also Read:
and now...
"Best Practices for Using Demo Accounts"
To ensure you maximize the benefits of a demo account, adopt the following strategies:
Serious Approach
Although no real money is at stake, treating the demo account with seriousness enhances realism and deepens the learning experience.
Realistic Capital Allocation
Even though demo accounts may offer unlimited capital, traders should simulate an amount similar to their intended live trading capital for a more accurate experience.
Maintain Consistent Leverage
Using the same leverage plan that you would apply during live trading ensures that your demo experience aligns closely with potential future outcomes.
Gradual Transition to Live Trading
Transitioning from a demo account to live trading should be done thoughtfully. Test your strategies extensively in the demo environment, simulating real trading amounts, to reduce the likelihood of mistakes once you start live trading.
In conclusion...
In summary, a demo account is a vital resource for both novice and experienced traders navigating the complexities of financial markets. For beginners, it provides a risk-free avenue to grasp market dynamics and develop essential trading techniques. For seasoned professionals, demo accounts are indispensable for strategy testing, evaluating automated tools, and enhancing both technical and psychological skills.
While the ideal duration in a demo account varies from trader to trader, committing to three months is recommended for anyone serious about entering full-time trading. Day traders particularly stand to gain by practicing within a demo setting, allowing them to accelerate skill acquisition, prepare for snap decisions, and foster a robust sense of confidence. The structured environment of a demo account promotes the crafting of personalized trading strategies, the establishment of effective risk management practices, and the ability to adapt to real-world market conditions.
Lastly I would like to add this previous lecture to this post, I'm sure will be useful for you...
The Psychology Of Trading How To Manage Your Emotions
and..
The Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal for Your Psychology
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Crypto Bull Run: Unveiling the First StageAfter a year-long bear market, cryptocurrency prices enter a consolidation phase at the bottom, lasting approximately 500-700 days. If the price breaks through this consolidation resistance, it could experience a bullish move of 100%-300%, This pattern occurs once every four years in the crypto market.
Currently, most cryptocurrency prices are breaking out of their consolidation phases and experiencing 100%-300% moves. This marks the first stage of the crypto bull run.
I will share the example charts below.
Regards
Hexa
DogeUsd moves up but watch 4 Bitcoins break above 76,522
Bitcoin is making a sluggish return to the long-side in trading today, so DogeUsd is following suit.
But Bitcoins next leg-up is dependant on a Top2 system 'taking' and a BTCUSD move above price 76,522 should ensure Bitcoins next bullish move but also DogeUsd.
My other pick at the moment is Cardona, ADAUSD which I picked Long at 0.33 & is now at nearly 0.39, however it's chart is indicative of much higher prices as Bitcoin Price Ascends further.
ShibUSD...all setup on Daily & Weekly charts. Plz see.
I don't hold this particular Crypto and I am not taking this trade as such as I have enough that could go wrong already.
But this one has a Daily head n shoulders pattern which will be a rocket upwards, bullish macd and rsi momentum and the weekly chart lines up in a similar vein.
Hmmm, I think this one has an awful spread on the buy, but i'm not certain.
Silver price down 1.75% (intentional I think) to take longs out.
A lot of people were long on gold and silver on thursday and I think that it was planned to keep the price selley today to take out stops.
Anyway, XAGUSD is down 1.75% and about 31.38 now. I think the price will move swiftly back up if buyers are there.
Join the friday afternoon free silver train long and get paid to do nothing.
Tron TRXUSD has been a bear for a good 2 or 3 weeks. Not anymore
I must declare Tron is one of my biggest holdings, I don't tend to hold onto currency's for very long because you forever get whipsawed around with the changes to the USD, and no matter how good your original setup was, quite often in trading when you see that nice 500 or 1000 green profit, it's best to take it off the table.
This is what happened with the start of the London session today Friday, the USD started to rally and all of the top currency's starting AUD, EUR, GBP etc all went in the red, down below it was the USD pairs in the green.
TRXUSD will knock over the USD today, I did hear that Bitcoin has not followed through on taking the Higher high set recently which would officially give it breakout status. One analysis I read was that Bitcoin is currently in a 15M channel and it may head bearish until it resets. I will check soon.
I keep digressing, TRXUSD has been tumbling downwards slowly and very measured so that nobody would notice on a Daily double top. But on multiple timeframes during Asia Friday TRON has about-faced and is now heading for the bulls.
TRXUSD is one of the few cryptocurrency's that is right at the top of its price cycle, to be honest I don't even recall its fundamentals because I go by the charts, however I do occasionally research the Crypto ones I have bought or am about to buy.
What's more to say? Well there usually is a bit of a buy-spread. I bought 50,000 a little while ago on market because most of the time I can't be bothered with limit-orders because while you punch in your order and price, the ones at the other end are driving the price higher and ripping us off. I have not made a dime out of TRON yet, I can't say to you that it will move fast like DOGE as it may be a turtle (slow), you will find that its chart-structure is a super-strong-foundation and the charts are very organised and usually pointing very bullish.
GBPUSD bullish divergence daily. Lows and Highs Div.
I put out a buy on this pair a week or 2 ago, GBPUSD, a lot can happen in this amount of time, last time I called a Long-trade on this pair & the same this time.
GBPUSD is moving up towards a neckline breakout on a Double-bottom system intraday.
But the real glossy confluence I see is the Daily chart and bullish RSI divergence. In recent days the RSI on the daily chart, where divergences probably work best because most traders look for divergences on Daily & even Weekly, 4hr charts, has seen lower low to higher low on the RSI AND also lower high to higher high on the daily RSI, but on the price action for GBPUSD it was a lazy lower prices down compared to a bullish turnaround on the RSI.
So this divergence is going to be noticed by traders and GBPUSD should be a buy going forwards.
As an added bonus of confluence, I threw in some MACD's to also highlight that the trade is supported on the Daily by MACD's sweeping upwards.
Pick of the Currency Outbreaks AUDUSD. More bulls ahead.
This is the Daily chart of AUDUSD. It's up well over 1% today.
It looks to have strength continuing to the upside due to a change in momentum favouring the Aussie.
You can see in the chart of daily how the 200ema has turned in favour of the Aussie.
I would be looking for a pullback to this 200ema which is about 0.6652 to 0.6655 to offer a wider zone of buying.
If you look ahead on the Daily, you will see a huge head n shoulders bullish setup which the bulls will be chasing.
I wrote a month or 2 ago how I expected the Aussie to breakout, but the USD has also returned to strength.
We also saw AUD perform very strongly against a basket of of other currency's in the Asian session earlier.
Silver very bullish now. Giving its usual false breaks earlier
As I mentioned for Gold price and Silver, although overextended a bit in price still, I am seeing momentum swinging back for the bulls and on the important bigger timeframes like 4hr and daily.
This chart is a recent Fibs pullback. Check it out below.
No false-break upwards here in Gold-It's moving up fast
Gold and Silver had a healthy downwards correction from what I understand.
A few nervous Gold-holders after Donald Trump's re-election.
But there is much more to the story for gold prices to go higher.
I see the intraday charts looking bullish for silver and gold today, as momentum is shifting back to the upside.
Wait and see what the Economic News tells us before rushing to go Long
Economic data just released was probably more in favour of the USD, but I note it was a mixed-bag release and in some ways favouring Gold price. Gold price has shrugged off the data it seems.
BTCUSD Defying a further pullback. Too bullish at Mid 75k
Bitcoin BTCUSD took a normal day of retracement in earlier trading (Asian & Europe Session), but it's recently made a move upwards, which prompted me to check the intraday charts and it looks like the climb will continue today. Mainly on momentum the past couple of days and of course there is that break of the March high, which reminds the pullback earlier today was probably to test this break of a previous high by new price.
Understanding Trading Leverage and Margin.When you first dive into trading, you’ll often hear about leverage and margin . These two concepts are powerful tools that can amplify your profits, but they also come with significant risks. The image you've provided lays out the essentials of leverage and margin: Leverage allows traders to control larger positions, Margin acts as a security deposit, Profit Amplification boosts potential gains, and Risk Amplification warns of increased losses.
In this article, we’ll break down these terms and explore how leverage and margin work, their advantages and risks, and what to consider before using them in your trading strategy.
What is Leverage in Trading?
Leverage is essentially a loan provided by your broker that allows you to open larger trading positions than your actual account balance would otherwise allow. It’s a tool that can multiply the value of your capital, giving you the potential to make more money from market movements without needing to invest large sums of your own money.
Think of leverage as “financial assistance.” With leverage, even a small amount of capital can control a larger position in the market. This can lead to amplified profits if the trade goes your way. However, it’s a double-edged sword; leverage can also lead to amplified losses if the trade moves against you.
Example of Trading with Leverage
Suppose you have €100 in your trading account and your broker offers a leverage of 1:5. This means you can control a position worth €500 with your €100 investment. If the market moves in your favor, your profits will be calculated based on the €500 position, not just the €100 you originally invested. However, if the market moves against you, your losses will also be based on the larger amount.
What is Margin in Trading?
Margin is the amount of money you must set aside as collateral to open a leveraged trade. When you use leverage, the broker requires a deposit to cover potential losses—this is called margin. Margin essentially acts as a security deposit, ensuring that you can cover losses if the trade doesn’t go as planned.
Margin is usually expressed as a percentage of the total trade size. For example, if a broker requires a 5% margin to open a position, and you want to open a €1,000 trade, you would need to deposit €50 as margin.
How Does Margin Work?
Margin works together with leverage. The margin required depends on the leverage ratio offered by the broker. For instance, with a 1:10 leverage, you’d only need a 10% margin to open a position, while a 1:20 leverage would require a 5% margin.
If the market moves against your position significantly, your margin level can drop. If it falls too low, the broker may issue a **margin call**, requesting additional funds to maintain the trade. If you don’t add funds, the broker might close your position to prevent further losses, which could lead to a loss of the initial margin amount.
How Does Leveraged Trading Work?
Leveraged trading involves borrowing capital from the broker to increase the size of your trades. This allows you to open larger positions and potentially gain higher profits from favorable market movements.
Here’s a simplified process of how it works:
1. Deposit Margin: You set aside a portion of your own funds (margin) as a security deposit.
2. Leverage Ratio Applied: The broker provides you with additional capital based on the leverage ratio, increasing your trading power.
3. Open Larger Positions: You can now open larger trades than you could with just your capital.
4. Profit or Loss Magnified: Any profit or loss from the trade is amplified, as it’s based on the larger position rather than just your initial capital.
While leverage doesn’t change the direction of your trades, it affects how much you gain or lose on each trade. That’s why it’s essential to understand both the potential for profit amplification and the risk amplification that leverage brings.
The Benefits and Risks of Using Leverage
Benefits of Leverage
- Profit Amplification: With leverage, you can control larger trades, which means any favorable movement in the market can lead to greater profits.
- Capital Efficiency: Leverage allows you to gain exposure to the markets without needing to invest a large amount of your own money upfront.
- Flexibility in Trading: Leveraged trading gives traders more flexibility to diversify their positions and take advantage of multiple opportunities in the market.
Risks of Leverage
- Risk Amplification: Just as leverage can amplify profits, it also amplifies losses. If a trade moves against you, your losses can be substantial, even exceeding your initial investment.
- Margin Calls: If the market moves significantly against your leveraged position, you may face a margin call, requiring you to add more funds to your account to keep the position open.
- Rapid Account Depletion: High leverage means that small market moves can have a big impact on your account. Without careful management, you could deplete your account balance quickly.
Important Considerations for Leveraged Trading
1. Understand the Leverage Ratio: Different brokers offer various leverage ratios, such as 1:5, 1:10, or even 1:100. Choose a leverage ratio that aligns with your risk tolerance. Higher leverage ratios mean higher potential profits but also higher potential losses.
2. Know Your Margin Requirements: Always be aware of the margin requirements for your trades. Brokers may close your positions if your margin level drops too low, so it’s essential to monitor your margin balance regularly.
3. Risk Management is Key: Use risk management strategies like stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. Don’t risk more than a small percentage of your account balance on any single trade.
4. Avoid Overleveraging: One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is using too much leverage. Start with a lower leverage ratio until you’re more comfortable with the risks involved in leveraged trading.
5. Only Use Leverage if You Understand It: Leveraged trading is suitable primarily for experienced investors who understand the market and the risks involved. If you’re new to trading, practice with a demo account to learn how leverage works before applying it in a live account.
Final Considerations
Leverage and margin are powerful tools in trading that can amplify profits, but they come with considerable risk. Using leverage wisely and understanding margin requirements are essential to avoid unnecessary losses and protect your account. While the prospect of profit amplification is attractive, traders should always remember that leveraged trading is a double-edged sword—it can lead to significant gains, but it can also result in rapid account depletion if not managed carefully.
To summarize:
- Leverage allows you to control larger trades with a small investment, multiplying both potential profits and potential losses.
- Margin is the deposit required to open a leveraged trade and acts as a security against potential losses.
- Use leverage responsibly and only after understanding the risks involved.
Leverage can be a valuable tool in trading if used wisely, so make sure to educate yourself, practice with a demo account, and always approach leveraged trading with caution.
BTCUSD Now +73,000 pumping so hard to take March high today
Bitcoin has absolutely exploded with upside movement during the last couple of sessions, even yesterday during New York trading, Cryptocurrency had a smashing day and I did not even have to look at the charts to understand that Bitcoin BTCUSD was on its way to take the March High.
Well if you don't own any Cryptocurrency, for educational purposes only, it's always a good idea to buy Bitcoin or stock/currency BEFORE the breakout, when price will go up very fast in line with how much Bitcoin is breaking out.
My next profit target for BTCUSD is not 120,000 which is where I think it will make very quickly after it explodes upwards in price following the break above the Huge CUP pattern on the Weekly chart. BTCUSD price is at time of writing is 73,150 approximately.
Prior to Cryptocurrency prices going into a frenzy following such a breakout, some other Crypto names that are solid and safe performers are DOGEUSD, TRXUSD, SOL & of course BTCUSD the number 1.
GOLD OUTLOOK Gold a safe heaven as we have taken bunch of profits today as it was our lucky day now as we see all day activity gold price remained very choppy price didn't broke above 2748 price level of resistance also didn't broke below 2731 price level of support as price has formed immediate resistance level of 2746-48
Now we again predict a fall in price as from H4 to H1 we can observe price is in a bearish momentum although price is showing some bearish signs over Daily Time frame but still price is in a bullish trend daily as we haven't observed any CHOCH on daily TF
GEOPOLITICS
As Geopolitics is concerned tight situation between iran and israel has loosen up to some extent of some tension increases we can see a bull run over price
US ELECTIONs
As far as today's big news is concerned gold is under effect of US Congress elections and what we have observed today is election effect tomorrow at 6th we can see any predictable price movment till now we are bearish over gold as price is all sideways
AUDCAD about to Pop to the upside.
Another setup I like mostly from this Daily chart. Price recently decoupling from a falling-wedge and moving briefly to a nearby liquidity zone and then shaping up to move upwards.
Trade has plenty of upwards momentum and should be a good riser commencing very soon.
I have bought at current levels around 0.9195 and SL at 0.9184, quite tight.
For educational purposes on tradingview only.
NZDCAD Long: Another solid setup on Daily
NZDCAD was a trade I took long about 8 hours ago.
In the old days, when I would break every trading rule and chase the market, I would've done that this morning, but then I realised price is going to pull back for my entry after I analyse it's chart for at least 10 minutes.
It has recently pulled back to about a 50% Fib retracement,