The Famous Monkey Story in Every Markets!The Famous Monkey Story in Every Market!
Once upon a time, a rich man from the city arrived in a village. He announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $100 each.
The villagers were thrilled, as there were hundreds of monkeys in a nearby forest. They caught the monkeys and brought them to the rich man, who paid $100 for every monkey they gave him. The villagers began making a living by capturing monkeys from the forest and selling them to the rich man.
Soon, the forest began to run out of monkeys that were easy to catch. Sensing this, the rich man offered $200 for each monkey. The villagers were ecstatic. They went back to the forest, set up traps, caught more monkeys, and brought them to the rich man.
A few days later, the rich man announced he would pay $300 per monkey. The villagers started climbing trees and risking their lives to catch monkeys and bring them to the rich man, who bought them all. Eventually, there were no monkeys left in the forest.
One day, the rich man announced he would like to buy more monkeys, this time for $800 each. The villagers couldn’t believe their luck. They desperately tried to catch more monkeys.
Meanwhile, the rich man said he had to return to the city for some business. Until he returned, his manager would handle transactions on his behalf.
Once the rich man left, the villagers were unhappy. They had been making quick and easy money from selling monkeys, but now the forest had no monkeys left.
This is when the manager of the rich man stepped in. He made an offer the villagers could not refuse. Pointing to all the caged monkeys, he told the villagers he would sell them for $400 each. They could sell them back to the rich man for $800 each when he returned.
The villagers were over the moon. Buy for $400 and sell for $800 in a few days—they had found the easiest way to double their money. They collected all their savings and even borrowed money. There were long queues, and within a few hours, almost all the monkeys were sold out.
Unfortunately, their happiness did not last long. The manager went missing the next day, and the rich man never returned. Many villagers kept the monkeys, hoping the rich man would come back. But soon, they lost hope and had to release the monkeys back into the forest, as feeding and caring for the noisy monkeys became extremely difficult.
This is exactly what happens when you buy low-quality companies in the stock market. There will be a low-priced stock that no one is interested in buying. A few rich men will suddenly start buying it. The stock price will rise because there are suddenly many buyers and very few sellers—a classic case of huge demand and no supply, like the monkeys in the forest.
The stock gets plenty of coverage on business channels and newspapers. These rich men will also use tricks like sending out bulk SMS messages, asking people to buy the shares for huge returns, and giving free tips. New and inexperienced investors, hoping to double or triple their investment, get lured in. Finally, the big players who bought the stock early when no one wanted it sell it back to inexperienced investors at high prices.
Don’t be greedy—there is no quick money in the stock market or in life. It takes time and effort to become wealthy, and there are no shortcuts.
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Educationalposts
Divergence - asset price directionDivergence is the discrepancy between the direction of an asset's price and the readings of an indicator. There are three types of divergences: classical, extended, and hidden. The first two can be used to gauge market sentiment and to trade in the opposite direction. Hidden divergence, however, is more significant and can serve as a powerful supplementary factor in determining the price direction and opening positions.
The use of extended divergence is not necessary, as it rarely occurs and forms at equal highs or lows. In such cases, an indicator is not needed to gauge market sentiment; the chart itself will suffice.
Classical Divergence
Classical divergence indicates a potential trend reversal or the beginning of a correction. Bullish classical divergence is identified when a lower low (LL) forms on the chart while a higher low (HL) appears on the indicator.
The masses buy when classical bullish divergence appears, anticipating significant growth. An upward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for buying is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the decline will continue. Long positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bear market, classical bullish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction.
Bearish classical divergence is identified when a higher high (HH) forms on the chart while a lower high (LH) appears on the indicator.
The masses sell when classical bearish divergence appears, expecting a significant decline. A downward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for selling is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the growth will continue. Short positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bull market, classical bearish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction.
The formation of multiple divergences is common. The masses will seize every opportunity to open their positions, leading to unprofitable outcomes. The number of divergences before the start of a correction is not limited. It is recommended to wait for the price to react after reaching the resistance zone. In the example above, the correction began after partially filling the imbalance on the 1D timeframe within the imbalance on the 1W timeframe.
Hidden Divergence
Hidden divergence serves as a confirmation of trend continuation.
Bullish hidden divergence is identified when a higher low (HL) forms on the chart and a lower low (LL) appears on the indicator.
In an uptrend, hidden bullish divergence may form before the continuation of growth, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions.
Bearish hidden divergence is identified when a lower high (LH) forms on the chart and a higher high (HH) appears on the indicator.
In a downtrend, hidden bearish divergence may form before the continuation of the decline, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions.
Notes
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator is used to identify divergences.
- RSI is plotted without considering candle shadows.
- Divergence should be viewed as an additional factor to your analysis, not a standalone tool.
- Divergence below the chart will always be bullish, while divergence above the chart will always be bearish.
HINDALCO: METAL TO METTLE?Hey There, Welcome Back.
We are not big fans of industries that are on the commodity (Raw Material) side of the value chain, But for those who don't mind, Here is everything you should know about Hindalco.
- A support trendline has been pushing the price up
- An ascending triangle was formed with the recent 6M consolidation
- A breakout candle broke both the AT Range and crucial resistance zone
- The breakout came in as a Bullish engulfing that adds to the positives
- Overall for the last 15 months, the price has been sideways
- If you draw a resistance line from top, We saw a breakout of that too. Not the most reliable trendline, but it still adds to the analysis
- Price is nicely above 200EMA
- Previously the price failed to sustain the 500 mark. What will it do this time?
Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Devyani: Looks like its Pizza Hut time!Hey there, Welcome back to a new case study.
Here is everything you need to know about NSE:DEVYANI :
- Devyani had a tepid journey so far since its IPO.
- The price stayed in a 50 point range for the last 20 months
- It defined support and resistance zones that were actually respected. Both bulls and bears have been trapped by the break of zones a.k.a. False breakout
- For the past 2 months, the price is consolidating at the resistance zone which is a huge plus
- The small bodies and big wicks show clear indecision. The volumes dried out during this phase. That usually happens when the price consolidates.
- It also has a 200 psychological level adding to its resistance
- Do give us a 🚀 for our efforts as it takes a lot of time to compile these pointers
- Stock is trading at 24.3 times its book value while the stock PE stands at 116
- A quick PE comparison at the same price point shows that the stock has gotten expensive (This is relevant if you invest with a long-term perspective. Trading is a game of momentum)
- A good close and sustenance above the resistance zone can bring momentum on the upside.
What do you think will happen next?
Have Requests, Insights, or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] When to trade for best bang for $$?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Okay, let's get started on today's topic. Knowing when to trade and when NOT to trade is very important. This is the "timing" element which is also a crucial part of trading. And, this is especially important if you are looking to trade on a lower timeframe!
Understanding the different trading sessions in the forex market and identifying the best times and days to trade can significantly improve trading success. Here's a breakdown of the major forex trading sessions and their characteristics:
Asian Session (Tokyo/Singapore/Hong Kong):
The Asian session begins with the opening of the Tokyo market, though the AUD and NZD starts trading earlier than it. It's known for lower volatility compared to other sessions, with currency pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/USD often experiencing increased activity.At times, if there's a important news release such as FED interest rate release or Non- farm payroll on a Friday. The preceding Asian Session could have "spill over" activity and increased in volatility in the FX market.
European Session (London):
The European session, centered around London, is considered the most active session (besides the US). It often sees high liquidity and volatility, making it ideal for day traders. Major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP typically exhibit significant movements during this session.
3. North American Session (New York):
The North American session overlaps with the end of the European session, creating a period of increased activity. Day traders loved the volatility during this period of time, more over key news releases could be catalyst for further volatility. It's characterized by liquidity from both European and American traders. Currency pairs involving the USD, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, are particularly active.
4. Best Times to Trade:
To be specific, the best times to trade forex are typically during the overlap of multiple trading sessions when liquidity and volatility are highest. This occurs during the overlap of the European and North American sessions, known as the "London-New York" overlap, which occurs from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST. Another optimal period is during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions.
Best Days to Trade
While forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week, certain days tend to offer more trading opportunities. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are generally considered the best days to trade, as they typically see higher volatility and more significant price movements compared to Mondays and Fridays.
By understanding the characteristics of each trading session and identifying the optimal times and days to trade, you can enhance your trading strategies and capitalize on the most favorable market conditions.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]All you need for Order types in FX Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Understanding the various order types in forex trading is essential for navigating the market efficiently and executing trades effectively. Here's a concise overview of some common order types:
1. Market Order:
This order is executed immediately at the current market price. It is used when a trader wants to enter or exit a trade quickly.
More of for Day Trading - A trader might use market orders to quickly enter and exit positions based on real-time news events or technical signals.
Live example
> A trader sees a positive European's news release and expects a quick upward move in the EUR/USD pair. They use a market order to buy EUR/USD at the current price of 1.1950, aiming to sell it later in the day at a higher price based on the expected market reaction.
2. Limit Order:
A limit order allows traders to specify the price at which they want to enter or exit a trade. It's used to buy below the current market price or sell above it, ensuring entry or exit at a specific price level or better.
For example for Swing Trading - A trader might place a buy limit order at a support level, expecting the price to bounce back up, or a sell limit order at a resistance level, expecting the price to fall.
Live Example
> A trader identifies strong support for USD/JPY at 110.50 and places a buy limit order at this price, expecting the price to rebound. When the market price dips to 110.50, the order is executed, and the trader aims to sell at 111.50.
3. Stop Order(Stop-Loss Order):
A stop order becomes a market order once a specified price level is reached. It's commonly used to limit losses or protect profits by triggering a trade when the market moves in a certain direction.
This, in my opinion should be used as Risk Management for all traders - A trader sets a stop-loss order below the entry price for a long position or above the entry price for a short position to limit potential losses if the market moves against their position.
Live Example
> A trader buys GBP/USD at 1.3500, anticipating a rise. To protect against unexpected drops, they place a stop-loss order at 1.3450. If the price falls to 1.3450, the order executes, limiting the trader's loss to 50 pips.
4. Stop-Limit Order:
A stop-limit order combines features of both stop and limit orders. It triggers a limit order to buy or sell at a specified price once the stop price is reached, offering more control over entry and exit prices.
More of for Advanced Trading - A trader might use a stop-limit order to ensure they enter a position only if the price reaches a certain level but still want to control the maximum price they are willing to pay.
Live Example:
A trader wants to buy EUR/GBP only if it breaks above 0.8500 but not pay more than 0.8520. They place a stop-limit order with a stop price of 0.8500 and a limit price of 0.8520. If the price hits 0.8500, the order becomes a limit order, executing only if the price is 0.8520 or lower.
5. Trailing Stop Order: A trailing stop order is a dynamic stop-loss order that adjusts automatically as the market price moves in the trader's favor. It helps lock in profits while allowing for potential further gains.
For Trend Following - A trader might use a trailing stop order to lock in profits as the price moves in their favor, allowing the stop price to trail the market price and protect gains if the market reverses.
A trader buys USD/CAD at 1.3000 and sets a trailing stop order with a 50-pip trail. As the price rises to 1.3100, the trailing stop adjusts to 1.3050. If the price then falls to 1.3050, the order executes, locking in a 50-pip profit.
Hopefully these explanations on the various Trading Orders open you up to more strategies that you can applied in the market for you to trade more efficiently and profitably!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Awaiting BO of Cup with Handle in $NSE:TCSNSE:TCS
Pattern details:
Up-trend before forming a Cup with a handle pattern
Cup with ~31% correction and length of cup 113 bars (791 days)
Handle length is 9 bars (64 days) and ~7.5% correction.
Manage to take support at 30 weeks EMA
Bullish RSI divergence at the bottom of the cup
Fundamental Notes:
Operating margin for the latest quarter was 26% (the highest in the last 12 quarters) and for FY 2024 - 24.6%
Net Profit QoQ 12,502 Cr. (Mar 24) vs 11,097 Cr. (Dec 23)
EPS Profit QoQ 34.37 (Mar 24) vs 30.56(Dec 23)
Net Profit YoY 46,099 Cr. (FY ending Mar 24) vs 42,303 Cr. (FY ending Mar 23)
EPS Profit YoY 115.19 (FY ending Mar 24) vs 126.88(FY ending Mar 24)
P/E: 29.9
ROCE: 64.3 %
ROE: 51.5 %
ROA: 32.5 %
PEG Ratio: 3.64
PS: Awaiting BO of Cup with handle pattern
Disc - invested, for educational purposes only
Educational Post: Trend and Valuations and Techno-Funda analysisWe have been told that market is always right and the price of the stock is always indicative of what is happening in the company, it’s balance sheets and its prospects for future. This cannot be true as the price of the stock or an index tends to trend. The trend can be upwards or the trend can be downward as seen in this chart. The trend can also be flat.
Now if the stock has tendency to ‘trend’ the trend will always have sentiments and sentiments will always try to overplay or underplay the prospect of the company. In case the trend is bullish the valuations will tend to be expensive. In case the trend is bearish there is always a possibility of undervaluing a company.
This is why an analyst needs to look at both Techincal and Fundamentals of a company. By looking at Fundamentals of the company you will understand the inherent strengths, it’s resilience ability to bounce back, ability to adapt and ability to grow. After having understood the and identified fundamentally strong company you can use technical analysis to enter the same or buy the stock with the help of Technical analysis. Thus you will be able to maximize the opportunity to make your money grow faster. Knowing Technicals will help you understand and establish when the trend is going to change, perhaps find when the stock is breaking out or breaking down.
When the trend is changing positively and the stock is breaking out you can invest, compound and stay invested and enjoy the bull run. When the trend is changing negatively you can perhaps book profit, partial profit or exit the stock before it breaks down completely.
It is said that either you learn or you die. My advice to investors whether you are a new investor or a seasoned player who has been investing for decades will be to keep yourself educated in terms of markets and its methodologies. Learning and unlearning should be a continuous process rather than depending on others and asking for tips to make money. If you buy and stay invested, you will make your money grow as much as the company or index grows. But if you can catch the trend which is a friend, catch the breakouts and breakdowns you will grow your money faster. Invest the most important commodity along with your money into the market, that is your time. To learn more about techno-Funda investing contact us and reap the benefit. Benjamin Franklin has rightly said,” Investment in knowledge pays the best returns.”
Disclaimer: Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart and other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. The names of the stocks or index levels of spot Nifty mentioned in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Margin? Lots? Spread? What are they?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Today we are going to cover terms such as Margin, Lot size, Spread and What are they.
Forex trading is a dynamic and potentially lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its own set of terminology and jargon that can be intimidating for beginners. Understanding these terms is crucial for aspiring traders to navigate the forex market effectively and make informed decisions.
Margin
One of the fundamental concepts in forex trading is margin, which refers to the amount of money required to open and maintain a trading position. Margin allows traders to control larger positions with a relatively small amount of capital, amplifying both potential profits and losses. It's important for traders to understand margin requirements and manage their leverage carefully to avoid excessive risk.
Lot Size
Another key concept is lots, which represent the size of a trading position in forex. Standard lots typically consist of 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots and micro lots represent 10,000 and 1,000 units, respectively. Lot size determines the potential profit or loss of a trade, with larger lots leading to greater fluctuations in account equity. If you are more comfortable with smaller lot size, you can even go on to nano lots in 100 unit of currency.
Spread
Spread is another term commonly used in forex trading, referring to the difference between the bid and ask prices of a currency pair. The bid price is the price at which traders can sell a currency pair, while the ask price is the price at which they can buy it. The spread represents the cost of executing a trade and can vary depending on market conditions and liquidity.
There are different types of spreads encountered in forex trading, including fixed spreads and variable spreads. Fixed spreads remain constant regardless of market conditions, providing traders with certainty about trading costs. On the other hand, variable spreads fluctuate in response to market volatility, widening during times of high activity and narrowing during periods of low activity.
Understanding these trading terms and jargon is essential for beginners to develop a solid foundation in forex trading. By mastering concepts such as margin, lots, spread, and different types of spreads, aspiring traders can make more informed decisions and effectively manage their risk in the dynamic and fast-paced world of forex.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
Explaining Dow Theory - Does it Deliver Results?
Dow theory stands out as one of the most revered theories in the history of financial markets. Whether you're engaged in intraday trading, short-term trading, or long-term investment, understanding this theory is bound to help you formulate diverse strategies.
Originally crafted by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, has stood the test of time. Charles Dow, the founder of the Dow-Jones financial news service WSJ (Wall Street Journal) and Dow Jones and Company, developed this trading strategy.
Even after a century, Dow theory remains influential and is considered one of the most sophisticated studies in technical analysis.
I trust this will be beneficial to anyone involved in trading or investing in financial markets.
What is the essence of Dow Theory?
In an article published in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901, Charles H. Dow likened the stock market to the ebb and flow of ocean tides.
He stated, "A person observing the rising tide and wishing to determine the precise moment of high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves no longer reach it and eventually recede enough to indicate that the tide has turned." This approach proves effective in monitoring and predicting the rising tide of the stock market.
Dow believed that analyzing the current state of the stock market could offer insights into the current state of the economy.
Indeed, the stock market can serve as a valuable gauge for understanding the underlying reasons behind upward and downward trends in both the economy and individual stocks.
How Does the Dow Theory Operate?
The Dow Theory operates based on several principles, which include the following:
1. The Averages Account for Everything:
Market prices incorporate all known or unknown factors that may impact supply and demand. It is believed that the market reflects all available information, including information not yet public. This encompasses various events such as natural disasters like droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes.
Major geopolitical occurrences, trade conflicts, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, fluctuations in interest rates, and earnings forecasts or anticipations are all already factored into market prices. While unforeseen events may arise, they typically influence short-term trends while leaving the primary trend intact.
2.The Market Exhibits Three Trends:
a)The primary trend:
This trend can extend from one year to several years and represents the dominant movement of the market. It is commonly known as either a bull or bear market. The bullish primary uptrend sees higher highs followed by higher lows, while the bearish primary downtrend witnesses lower highs and lows.
The challenge lies in predicting when and where these primary trends will conclude. The goal of Dow Theory is to leverage known information rather than making speculative guesses about the unknown. By adhering to Dow Theory guidelines, one can identify and align with the primary trend.
b)The intermediate trend or secondary trend:
This trend typically lasts from 3 weeks to several months and is characterized by reactionary movements. In a bull market, these movements are viewed as corrections, whereas in a bear market, they are seen as rally attempts.
For instance, during a primary uptrend, a stock may retrace from its high to establish a low (known as an intermediate trend or correction). Conversely, in a primary downtrend, a stock might experience a temporary rebound after a prolonged decline (known as bear market rallies).
c)The minor trend or daily fluctuations:
This trend, lasting from several days to a few hours, is the least reliable and is often disregarded according to Dow Theory. Long-term investors should perceive daily fluctuations as part of the corrective process within intermediate trends or bear market rallies.
These fluctuations represent the noise in the market and can be susceptible to manipulation. While daily price action is important, its significance lies in the context of the broader market structure.
Analyzing daily price movements over several days or weeks can provide valuable insights when viewed alongside the larger market picture. While individual pieces of the structure may seem insignificant, they are integral to completing the overall picture.
3.Major Trends Comprise Three Phases:
Dow focused extensively on major trends, identifying three distinct phases within them: Accumulation, Public participation, and Distribution.
These phases occur cyclically and repeat over time.
a) Accumulation Phase:
This phase occurs when the market is in a bearish trend, characterized by negative sentiments and a lack of hope for an upcoming uptrend. For instance, we witnessed steep declines in mid-cap stocks in the Indian share market, with new lows being made frequently.
While many investors anticipate this trend to persist indefinitely, this is actually when significant investors, such as large fund houses and institutional investors, begin gradually accumulating these stocks.
This period is known as "smart money" investing for the long term. Despite ongoing selling pressure in the market, buyers are readily found.
b) Public Participation Phase:
During this phase, the market has already absorbed the negativity, with "smart money" investing. This marks the second stage of a primary bull market and typically sees the most significant rise in prices.
At this point, the majority of the public (retail investors) also considers joining in as prices rapidly increase. However, many are left behind due to the speed of the rallies and the upward trend in averages.
Traders and investors may experience regret for not participating in the rally. This phase follows improved business conditions and increased stock valuations.
c) Distribution Phase:
The third stage represents excess, eventually transitioning into the distribution phase. In this final stage, the public (retail investors) becomes fully engaged in the market, captivated by the bull market rally.
Some investors who previously felt left out may still seek opportunities to join the rally based on valuations.
However, this is when "smart money" begins to sell off shares at every high point. Meanwhile, the public attempts to buy at these levels, absorbing the selling volumes from large investors.
In the distribution phase, whenever prices attempt to rise, "smart money" unloads their holdings.
This marks the onset of a bear market, where sentiments turn negative, bankruptcy filings increase, and economic growth shifts.
During a bear market, frustration levels rise among retail investors as hope dwindles.
4.Confirmation Between Averages is Essential:
Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market.
Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation.
To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C.
5.Confirmation of Trends Through Volume:
Volume serves as a metric indicating the amount of shares traded within a specific timeframe, aiding in trend and pattern analysis.
According to Dow theory, a stock's uptrend should be supported by high volume and exhibit low volume during corrections.
While volume data alone may not be comprehensive, integrating it with resistance and support levels can provide a more comprehensive understanding.
6.Trend Persistence Until Clear Reversal Signals:
Similar to Newton's first law of motion, which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion unless acted upon by an external force, market trends are expected to persist until a significant external force, such as changes in business conditions, prompts a reversal.
Signs of trend reversals become apparent when impending changes in trend direction are observed.
7.Signal Recognition and Trend Identification:
A significant challenge in implementing the Dow theory is accurately identifying trend reversals. Adhering to the Dow theory requires not only assessing the overall market direction but also recognizing definitive signals of trend reversals.
A key technique employed in identifying trend reversals within the Dow theory is analyzing peaks and troughs, or highs and lows. Peaks represent the highest points in a market movement, while troughs signify the lowest points.
According to the Dow theory, markets do not move in a linear fashion but rather oscillate between highs (peaks) and lows (troughs), with overall market movements trending in a particular direction.
An upward trend in Dow theory consists of a series of progressively higher peaks and troughs, while a downward trend is characterized by progressively lower peaks and troughs.
8.Market Manipulation:
Charles Dow believed that manipulation of the primary trend was improbable, while short-term trading, including intraday movements and secondary movements, could be susceptible to manipulation.
Short-term movements, ranging from hours to weeks, may be influenced by factors such as large institutions, speculators, breaking news, or rumors, potentially leading to manipulation.
While individual securities may be manipulated, such as artificially driving up prices before reverting to the primary trend, manipulating the entire market is highly unlikely due to its vast size.
Why Dow Theory Is Not Foolproof:
Dow Theory is not a fail-safe method for outperforming the market, as it is not without its flaws. Critics argue that it lacks the depth and precision of a formal theory.
Conclusion:
Understanding the Dow Theory enables traders to identify hidden trends that may elude more seasoned investors, empowering them to make informed decisions about their positions.
The Dow theory aims to pinpoint the primary trend and capitalize on significant movements. Given the market's susceptibility to emotion and tendency for overreaction, the goal is to focus on identifying and following the prevailing trend.
What is token burning in crypto?Understanding Token Burning in Cryptocurrency: A Comprehensive Guide
What is Token Burning?
Token burning is a crucial strategy in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies, where assets lack real-world backing. Developers employ innovative approaches to maintain long-term price stability and incentivize investors. One such method is burning tokens, which involves removing coins from circulation. This action reduces the total supply, increasing scarcity, and potentially boosting the value of each remaining coin.
Why Do Projects Burn Tokens?
There are several reasons why cryptocurrency projects may choose to burn tokens:
Scarcity and Value Appreciation By reducing the supply of tokens, projects can create scarcity, leading to potential value appreciation for the remaining tokens. This can incentivize holding and discourage selling, contributing to price stability and growth.
Reward Mechanisms Some projects use token burning as a reward mechanism for users or participants. For example, platforms may burn tokens as part of a buyback program, where they purchase tokens from the market and then burn them, effectively reducing supply and rewarding holders.
Economic Alignment : Token burning can align economic incentives within a project's ecosystem. For instance, platforms may allocate a portion of transaction fees to token burning, ensuring that stakeholders benefit from increased token value as the supply decreases.
Coin Migrations : During blockchain upgrades or migrations, projects may burn old tokens that are being replaced by new tokens on a different blockchain. This process helps maintain continuity and security during transitions.
Examples of Token Burning:
Binance Coin (BNB): Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, regularly conducts token burns of its native token, BNB. A portion of the trading fees collected on the Binance platform is used to buy back BNB from the market and subsequently burn the tokens, reducing the total supply over time.
Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum has proposed a shift to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism with Ethereum 2.0. As part of this transition, ETH holders can lock up their tokens in the new Ethereum Beacon Chain, effectively removing them from circulation and reducing supply, akin to token burning.
TRON (TRX): TRON Foundation has conducted multiple token burns of its native token, TRX, to manage supply and support token value. These burns are often announced publicly, providing transparency to the community.
Crypto Exchanges: Some cryptocurrency exchanges conduct token burns of their exchange tokens as part of periodic events or promotions. This practice can benefit token holders by reducing supply and potentially increasing token value.
Does burning impact token price?
Token burning can indirectly affect token value. Reducing circulating coins typically generates positive sentiment, potentially increasing asset popularity and value. While not the primary price driver, decreased supply can create scarcity and lift remaining token values. However, many factors influence token price, such as market conditions, sentiment, and project reputation.
In conclusion - Token burning remains a potent method for enhancing and stabilizing crypto asset value. Transparency and stability through burning incentivize investor trust, contributing to sustained price levels. Despite not guaranteeing immediate value hikes, burning offers long-term benefits, especially for projects with substantial user bases. Other advantages include community reinforcement and inflation control, making token burning a strategic practice in the cryptocurrency landscape.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Mid-Cap Index is the index to watch out for.As we have discussed in previous educational messages. By selecting the indices that are looking strong we can get a range of stocks that can do well. From that basket of stocks you can then further scrutinize and select the stocks that might preform the best based on charts and fundamentals of the companies.
This week let us look at the Mid-Cap index that took a dramatic beating and is finding a support from where it can regain lost ground and even surpass the recent highs. Midcap Index made a high of 51342 before the descend began. The index has taken a support at the mid channel which also happens to be a trend line support. If the support or the low of Friday which was 48605 is not broken then we will see the comeback of Mid-cap stocks and index.
Resistance levels for the Mid-Cap index going forward will be 49545, 50132, 50425, 50802 and finally the previous high of 51342. The channel top seems to be near 52399 if the highs of 51342 are broken and sustained in future.
Support levels for the Mid-Cap index in case the support at 48605 is broken will be near 47952 or 46928 which seems to be the channel bottom. Choose wisely from the Mid-cap stock basket while keeping an eye on the levels mentioned here. Happy Investing.
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 1 🔣Hello traders welcome back to another Concept video. In this video, we detail some of the best times to trade the Eur/Usd Currency pair. This happens to be at Session opens. We go through the 3 Session opens and walkthrough examples of increasing volume ( Large candles). Session opens can provide a great catalyst for 1) a continuation of momentum of the preceding trend or 2) a dramatic reversal. The Euro and the U.S. Dollar are not open during the Asian session and so the candles are much smaller and the average volatility is much less. However, the same concept applies regarding the former.
Technicals Made Easy: Technical Dissection of Nifty Hourly ChartIn The above chart you can see how Nifty follows various Technical aspects of the chart. First of all we can see a Parallel channel in which Nifty is travelling. The channel has 3 parts.
1) Channel Top.
2) Channel Bottom.
3) Mid Channel.
Channel top will always work as a resistance and Channel bottom will always will work as support. Channel Mid or Mid channel will act as support or resistance depending on where the candles are. If the candles are below the mid-line, the line will act as resistance. If the candles are above the mid-line, the line will act as support.
Similarly the 50 and 200 EMA (Mother and Father lines) have similar characteristics. If the candles are below respective Mother and father line, the lines will act as resistance. If the candles are above the EMAs the EMAs will act as supports.
In the chart we also see negative MACD crossover at one particular point and candles behaving bearishly after the same. Similarly after a positive MACD crossover the candles might behave bullishly.
Technical analysis is simple process by which you try to study the combined psychology of overall investors and how they behave at particular levels. Technical analysis in other words is graphical representation of behavioural patterns of investors, keeping historical data at the core of decision making. It is also science and not some wizardry or magic. In case you want to learn more about Technical or Techno-Funda analysis you can leave a comment below.
When you have missed the train, you should not FOMO
You are arriving at the station, everyone is rushing in, you check the screens and your train is departing very soon. You run, go to the platform and the train is moving. You run, then train leaves, you run, jump... and fall on the rails. The next train smashes you.
Or alternatively, you admit you have missed the train because it is obviously chugging away with the doors closed, grab a drink and wait for the next train. There is always a next train, even if you have to grudgingly wait all night because you missed the last of the day's.
My point is, even everyone is buying in a rush, do not FOMO. You can FOMO, of course, get lucky because you FOMOed early, and then be bold enough to leave at the next station of the circular line. But if you really think of FOMOing, look at the risk/benefit first. Note that my comments are from the perspective of a weekly/monthly timeframe investor. Trading is a different thing, it thrives in volatility and risk is managed in a different way.
In the plot below, just an example. The thin arrows show point where indicators are at or close to a extreme in a high timeframe (weekly and above). With indicators I mean very overbought RSI, MFI, price well above EMAs, price touching or even worse extending beyond the top boundary of the Bollinger bands, etc. But then, you see that price continued up after a small correction. Well, it could have gone down to correct further, but it went up. Fine.
However, look at the thick arrows. Again, overbought signals, but the difference is that they are at a major resistance, the previous '21/'22 top. Very, very high risk of drop after touching and rejecting the previous top. Now price can go down and up again and maybe form an ascending triangle, or a double top, who knows. But unless you are thirsty for risk, buying under a previous rejected top with overbought signals is a bold move. Step back and give a thought to waiting either for a drop, or for a break up above the previous top, even if you lose 10-15% of potential gains... with the prospect of price going above 100K that is not that bad. I would seriously recommend though, stay out of leverage as if it was the pox -too much risk here.
One can argue that RSI can stay overbought for a very long time. True, we have examples in previous cycles. I am just pointing at the confluence of overbought indicators with rejected top, that is a big red flag.
As a final comment, stay out of posts that play with your emotions. If someone says "buy before it is too late", "sell now or lose it all", "I will say elsewhere, only I know", etc, those things that make you itch for a move... just leave. Decide what to do by yourself, so you don't have the excuse to blame someone else.
27 Articles That Helps You to Avoid MONEYGONE PatternAre you tired of feeling like your money disappears into thin air? Say goodbye to the ' MONEYGONE ' pattern with our collection of 27 articles packed with tips and tricks to keep your finances on track.
In #VestindaTips we've put together this big guide all about how prices move and patterns in trading.
Whether you're new to trading or you've been doing it for a while, we want to give you helpful info to understand the ups and downs of the financial world. So, let's learn together and get ready to navigate those tricky markets!
Dynamics of Bull Market Cycles:
Understanding the ebbs and flows of bull markets is essential for capitalizing on upward trends. Dive into the intricacies of bull market cycles to identify opportunities and optimize your trading strategies.
Dynamics of Bear Market Cycles:
Conversely, bear markets present unique challenges and opportunities.
Explore the dynamics of bear market cycles to mitigate risks and maximize profits during downward trends.
Diamond Pattern: How-To Guide:
Uncover the secrets of the diamond pattern and learn how to recognize and interpret this rare yet powerful formation in trading.
Drawing Trendlines: A Practical Guide:
Master the art of drawing trendlines with precision and accuracy. This practical guide offers valuable tips and techniques to identify trends and make informed trading decisions.
Think You Know Candlestick Patterns?
Delve deeper into the realm of candlestick patterns and refine your understanding of these fundamental tools for technical analysis.
What is a Bearish Pennant Pattern?
Decode the mysteries of the bearish pennant pattern and discover how to spot this bearish continuation formation in the market.
Market Gaps: Strategies, Types, Fills, and Crypto:
Explore the phenomenon of market gaps and uncover effective strategies for navigating these price discontinuities across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
Three White Soldiers:
Learn to recognize and interpret the significance of the three white soldiers pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals a potential shift in market sentiment.
Bullish Pennant Pattern:
Gain insights into the bullish pennant pattern and harness its predictive power to identify lucrative trading opportunities in the market.
How to Island Reversal Pattern:
Navigate the waters of the island reversal pattern and understand its implications for trend reversal and market sentiment.
The Triangles: With Real-Life Examples:
Explore the various types of triangle patterns, including symmetrical, ascending, and descending triangles, with real-life examples illustrating their significance in technical analysis.
Cracking the Short Squeeze:
Demystify the phenomenon of short squeezes and learn how to capitalize on these explosive market dynamics for potentially substantial gains.
Hammer of Trend Change:
Discover the hammer candlestick pattern and its role as a potent signal for trend reversal, providing traders with valuable insights into market dynamics.
Basics of Elliott Wave Theory:
Unlock the foundational principles of Elliott Wave Theory and leverage this powerful tool for predicting market cycles and trends.
The Core Confirmations Every Trader Must Know:
Equip yourself with essential trading confirmations to validate your analysis and make well-informed trading decisions with confidence.
What are Tweezer Top and Bottom Patterns?
Unravel the mysteries of tweezer top and bottom patterns and learn how to interpret these candlestick formations for identifying potential trend reversals.
How to Altseason Cycle || Cheat Sheet || Bitcoin Dominance:
Navigate the altseason cycle with ease using this comprehensive cheat sheet, complete with insights into Bitcoin dominance and its implications for the broader cryptocurrency market.
Rising and Falling Wedges Explained:
Understand the characteristics of rising and falling wedges and learn how to effectively trade these patterns for profit.
How to Head and Shoulders:
Master the head and shoulders pattern, a classic reversal formation that can provide valuable insights into market trends and potential trend reversals.
Double Top vs. Double Bottom Patterns:
Distinguish between double top and double bottom patterns and learn how to identify and trade these reversal formations effectively.
Triple Top vs. Triple Bottom Patterns:
Explore the nuances of triple top and triple bottom patterns and their implications for market trends and price action.
DIVERGENCE CHEATSHEET:
Decode divergence patterns with this comprehensive cheat sheet, providing invaluable insights into market dynamics and potential trend reversals.
Supply and Demand Zones: Buying Low, Selling High:
Master the art of identifying supply and demand zones to capitalize on optimal entry and exit points in the market.
Ascending Channels: The Guide:
Navigate ascending channels with confidence using this comprehensive guide, complete with strategies for trading within these bullish formations.
Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution:
Unlock the secrets of Wyckoff accumulation and distribution phases and learn how to spot these market manipulation tactics for profitable trading opportunities.
The Cup and Handle Pattern in Trading:
Discover the cup and handle pattern, a classic bullish continuation formation that can signal significant uptrends in the market.
The ABCD Pattern: from A to D:
Explore the ABCD pattern and its role in identifying potential entry and exit points in the market, providing traders with a structured approach to trading.
With all the cool stuff you've learned from our guide on price action and patterns, you'll be ready to tackle the twists and turns of the financial world like a pro! It doesn't matter if you're just starting out or you've been at it for a while, getting the hang of these basic ideas is super important for making good trades and winning big. So, go ahead and dive in! Happy trading, everyone!
BITCOIN: HISTORICAL CYCLES AND HEALVING ROADMAP PART IITHIS CHART IS BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA
Let’s get to the chart.
Keeping in mind that this chart is based on Bitcoin at this time, it's quite important for the coin. Looking at historical prices, if we examine the first example, focusing on the first bit between the 2012 halving, the month before the halving was actually relatively neutral. We saw a slight uptick in the lead-up, once again following the next major market. If we look at the second example, we actually saw a major move to the upside within around one month of the Bitcoin halving, and then we experienced a short downturn before eventually continuing higher later in the market cycle. Then, looking at the 2020 halving example, of course, leading up to the halving, we had the global pandemic that crashed the market to the downside. However, we saw a major recovery one month before the halving. Following the halving, we actually saw some choppy sideways price action, essentially neutral action over the next month, and then we continued with the market much higher. Overall, in a very bullish time in the market right now, generally around the halving, we are usually trending in a bullish direction. Of course, we can see short-term bearish moves, but the larger trend is bullish. Additionally, we usually see a major market move in the process, at least over the next year after the Bitcoin halving.
Taking a look at the first example from the first Bitcoin to the ultimate market cycle, that was 370 days into the market top, exactly one year after the market. Looking at the second example, that was around 520 days after the Bitcoin halving to reach the market top. Then, looking at the third example, from the halving to the ultimate market top, that was around 540 days on average. From the actual Bitcoin halving to the next major market top, it takes around 450 to 500 days. Potentially, we could end up seeing the market topping out roughly around 2025, and then we could end up entering into the next market in the second half of 2025 because the next Bitcoin halving is likely to happen in early 2028. As you can clearly see on this chart, we usually end up seeing these markets occur right in the middle of these Bitcoin cycles. Simply based on history, this is the most likely outcome. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but the most likely outcome based on historical data is simply seeing the market over the next year somewhere in 2025.
This chart will likely help you make better trade decisions if you consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section.
Thank you.
How I Shorted the NY top on EUR/GBP **Educational** 4/26/24First thing I did was identify the trend.
The market is clearly locally in a downtrend, so I was looking for a short today.
The next step was to wait for New York's Initial Balance (NY IB) to form.
(The NY IB is the high and low of the first hour of NYs open.)
Once the IB is formed we wait to see how price interacts with it in order to make an educated decision.
In this case price broke above the IB and failed to find enough buyers to push higher, so price simply re-entered the IB, and formed a failed auction.
The Next thing I look for is confluence to support my idea.
You can see just above the IB high, we had the Fib golden pocket and the VWAP.
(The golden pocket is the 0.618 to 0.66 fib retracement, and the VWAP is the Volume Weighted Avg Price)
One of the final things I look at is Volume and footprint.
You can see here when I zoom in there is alot of buying into the resistance level.
And that buying is followed by even heavy selling that is causing price to reject from the resistance.
You can even see the delta is heavily negative as price moves away.
It is obvious bears are in control here
Now that everything is aligned, and I have a plan, the last part is to enter the trade.
This is simple, price gets acceptance back inside of the IB, and I entered on the backtest of the IB.
Stoploss above the high and I look to take profit at the IB low.
Curious case of Kotak Bank. What to do now? Investment is always a long term game. Even the best of the companies can have issues with governance, operations, supply chain and demand. We need patience, perseverance and persistency sometimes. Avoid being impulsive, hasty and emotional and impetuous in this journey to create generational wealth and achieve financial freedom.
With my limited knowledge I will try to give my honest assessment on the curious case of Kotak bank. Let us all try to arrive at our own logical conclusion without considering this article as a prophesy to buy or sell the stock.
My observations tell me and I might be wrong but it is obvious RBI does not have a problem with asset quality of Kotak bank. Neither is there any complex issue related to compliance and probably organizational ethics. NPAs will be known soon (3rd May Quarterly Result) but I assume with prejudice and bit of bias it will neither be a major issue.
Then what is the issue? It seems the issues are related to cyber security, data of clients and lethargy with compliances related to digital growth in foot print. Yes things might be pretty nasty here considering the wrath with which RBI came down on them.
So my logical assessment tells me that fundamentally it might not be a major worry. So there are further questions:
Will they have to spend a lot in cybersecurity etc?
Yes.
Can it effect top line growth?
Yes.
Can it hamper the growth of the bank for few quarter or more?
Yes.
Will I be selling the stock I hold?
Probably not unless they hit my predetermined stop loss.
Will I buy Kotak bank right now as it has fallen more than Rs.200 and is at mouthwatering levels?
No. Not right now.
Why not?
Because we do not catch a falling knife. We will catch the bouncing ball.
What does the chart of Kotak Mahindra Bank say?
The Zone between 1602 and 1534 has potential to provide a strong support. If 1534 is broken on weekly closing. We may see new multi-year lows of 1504 or even 1400 (As of now). 1640, 1672, 1700 and 1721 will be very tough resistances to cross. This is what my analysis of chart says. Do not take it as a buy or sell call. Take a wise descision before giving a knee jerk reaction and selling in hurry or panic. One good quarter and things can be back to normal. I personally hold Kotak bank currently in my portfolio. I may rethink my further call to action if 1534 or 1504 are broken as of now I might not sell this stock. I may add on bounce at an opportune time.
Disclaimer: Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. The names of the stocks or index levels of spot Nifty mentioned in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
How To Trade Triangles Like A Pro?Welcome, traders and investors, to our educational post on ascending and descending triangles!
In the fast-paced world of financial markets, understanding chart patterns like these is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Ascending and descending triangles are powerful tools that provide valuable insights into market dynamics and potential price movements. In this post, we will delve into the characteristics of these patterns, explore how to identify them on price charts, and discuss effective trading strategies to capitalize on their implications. Whether you're a novice trader or an experienced investor, mastering these patterns can greatly enhance your ability to navigate the markets with confidence and precision.
What Is An Ascending Triangle?
An ascending triangle chart pattern is formed during the upward price movement in an uptrend. The price tends to consolidate for a while and allows the trader to draw a horizontal trend line on the upside. Simultaneously, it allows the trader to draw a rising trend line downwards. The pattern implies that the price is consolidating and existing buyers are closing partial positions and the market is expecting new buyers to join and continue the Bullish trend.
As a result, the price consolidates on the upper trend line and is unable to move higher and make new higher highs. However, the price does not make lower lows either, instead makes higher lows. So technical analysts look for trading opportunities and enter the market once the pattern is spotted on a price chart.
How To Identify The Ascending Triangle?
The ascending triangle pattern is similar to the other triangle patterns, but the location and shape of the triangle formation is very important. The shape of the ascending triangle should strictly contain the upper horizontal trend line and the lower rising trend line, failing this will invalidate the pattern. The pattern must be located within the uptrend, so it can be validated as a trend continuation pattern.
The ascending triangle can be spotted easily by its shape. The horizontal upper trend line and the rising lower trend line make it easy to spot the triangle. An ascending triangle forms during a bullish uptrend as the pattern is a continuation pattern. However, the pattern may form in any part of the chart and trend. The ascending triangle pattern formed during a uptrend is significant and produces the best trading results. So traders should look for the pattern while prices are in an uptrend and identify it using the triangle shape.
Features That Help To Identify The Ascending Triangle:
▪️ There should be an existing uptrend in the price.
▪️ The upper trend line should be horizontal.
▪️ The lower trend line must be a rising trend line.
▪️ The trend lines should be touched at least twice. The greater number of times the trend line is touched, the stronger it gets.
How To Trade The Ascending Triangle?
As mentioned earlier, the pattern not only provides the best entry point but provides the stop loss and takes profit too. Moreover, these points can be clearly defined and understood by the trader.
Entry point: During the market consolidation phase, the upper trend line acts as a resistance and the lower trend line acts as a support. As the market consolidation ends and the price starts to get momentum, it breaks the upper trend line. The best entry point is the breakout of the upper trend line or the resistance.
Price breakouts are normally associated with spikes in the trading volume. The increased trading volume implies the entry of fresh buying orders. Traders should look for trading volume levels during the breakout and confirm the breakout before entering the market with a BUY position.
The next confirmation is the classic price action which shows that the resistance has changed into support. Normally, price once breaks the upper trend line tries to move lower but will have ample support from the upper trend line which now starts to act support. This price action confirms the buying interest and gives the trader with additional confirmation and confidence.
Stop Loss: The best stop loss method is to exit the trade if the price breaks the support or the lower rising trend line. The breakout of the lower trend line implies the non-availability of the upside momentum and indicates the possibility of the return of the bears. (In the cryptocurrency market, there are often fake breakouts, and that's also worth considering!)
Take Profit: The projected take profit target is the farthest distance between the upper and lower trend lines. At the beginning of the pattern, the upper and lower trend line will be wider from each other. This distance can be measured and can be projected from the entry point to the upside. As per the pattern, this is the best take profit target.
What Is An Descending Triangle?
A descending triangle appears during a downtrend. The price tends to move lower and then finds a consolidation area, this consolidation area is the potential price level at which the market allows the trader to draw a horizontal trend line, due to the failure to make lower lows.
On the other hand, the price tries to move higher and fails to make any higher highs. Oppositely, the failure to make higher lows results in lower lows so the price action allows the technical trader to draw a descending trend line on the upside.
The combination of the upper and the lower trend line forms the shape of the descending triangle. Traders look for trading opportunities once the price consolidation ends. Price breakout from the descending triangle pattern indicates the beginning of the trend resumption. So traders enter the market in the direction of the previous trend direction.
How To Identify The Descending Triangle Pattern?
The following are the features that help to identify the descending triangles chart pattern.
▪️ There should be an existing downtrend in the price. To validate the pattern, it should form during an existing downtrend. The pattern that forms during an uptrend should be invalidated and not taken into account. As the trend is a BEARISH continuation pattern the formation during the downtrend is essential.
▪️ A lower trend line should be horizontal. The price should fail to make lower lows and usually bounce from the low, as a result, the lower trend line should be as horizontal as possible.
The upper trend line must be a descending trend line. The price action on the upper side is very crucial for this pattern. The failure of the price to make higher highs and instead of making lower highs shows the failure of the price to reverse the trend direction.
▪️ The trend lines should be at least touched twice, the greater number of times the trend line is touched it gets stronger. Trend lines must be validated independently, as a general rule of the trend line the price should touch the trend line at least twice. However, the more times a trend line is touched it gets stronger.
The upper and lower trend lines converge each other and look to join at the end, thereby forming the shape of a descending triangle. Traders can spot the pattern easily due to the shape of the trend lines, as the chart will make it easier to spot a consolidation area during a downtrend.
How To Trade The Descending Triangle Like A Pro?
As discussed earlier the pattern is a completely trade-able pattern, meaning it provides the trader with the best entry point and stops loss, and takes profit points. It must be mentioned that all of the parameters can be measured and identified easily.
Entry Point:
During the market consolidation phase, the price action makes the price bounce from the lower trend line and prevents the price to move higher than the upper falling trend line. The resultant shape of the descending triangle will be broken the consolidation phase ends as traders enter a fresh buying phase. The price breaks the lower trend line and continues to move lower, which is the prevailing downtrend.
Traders should confirm the entry point using additional confirmation using the trading volumes. Any breakout of trend lines or triangles is generally associated with increased trading volumes.
The increased trading volumes provide the necessary momentum for the price movement. So traders should look for increased volumes, however, if the descending triangle breakout does not show any increase in volume traders should refrain from trading as it may be due to a false breakout.
The next type of confirmation is by applying the support and resistance or trend line trading rules. The lower horizontal trend line effectively acted as a support during the market consolidation phase, while the upper trend line acted as a resistance.
So once the price breaks the support, it becomes resistance. There may be few instances when the price broke the support line and fails to continue or displays a false breakout.
Stop Loss:
The stop loss is the upper falling trend line because, if the price makes higher highs it shows the market intent to move higher or reverse the trend. So the best method is to exit the position if the price breaks the falling upper trend line or resistance.
Take Profit:
The pattern allows identifying the take profit by measuring the longest distance between the trend lines. Normally during the beginning of the descending triangle pattern is the longest distance, this shall be measured. This measurement from the entry point will provide the potential take profit position.
Understanding ascending and descending triangles is essential for any trader navigating the financial markets. These chart patterns offer valuable insights into potential price movements, providing traders with opportunities to enter and exit positions strategically. Ascending triangles typically indicate bullish continuation patterns, suggesting that an uptrend may persist after consolidation. On the other hand, descending triangles often signal bearish continuation patterns, indicating potential downtrends following consolidation. By recognizing these patterns and applying appropriate trading strategies, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their overall trading performance. Remember to combine pattern analysis with other technical indicators and risk management principles for optimal results in the dynamic world of trading.
Happy trading!🩷
Thanks for Your attention 🫶
Always sincerely with You, Kateryna💙💛
GBPUSD Long 4.25.24 *Educational*First step: Identify trend.
Price is obviously in an uptrend locally. This can be seen by price making higher highs and higher lows every day.
Step 2: Wait for the New York initial balance to form in order to make an educated discission.
You can see the IB form, which is the A and B blocks. After the IB is formed CDE bocks formed a failed auction below the IB. A failed auction indicates trapped traders below the IB low, that were trying to short the breakdown.
Step 3: Look for confluence to support your trade idea.
You can see just below the IB we have the daily POC + VAL and a local golden pocket.
So along with the failed auction of the low, we also tapped into 3 other support levels.
Step 4: Enter your trade.
Unfortunately, I can't show any time frame lower than 15mins bc of Tradingview's rules.
But you can still see how I entered. It is simple, I wait for a 15min close back inside of the IB. Then I go on the 1min chart and look to see if the 1min trend is shifting in my favor. Id both of those criteria are met then I will enter my trade on the backtest of the IB.
Deciphering the Enigma: Understanding the Forces Behind ForexWithin the seemingly tranquil surface of the forex market lies a realm of intricate complexities and dynamic interactions that dictate its ever-evolving landscape. Unlike the tumultuous fluctuations often witnessed in stock markets, the forex arena operates with a measured cadence, its movements orchestrated by an array of global forces. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve deep into the enigmatic depths of the forex market, unraveling the myriad factors that drive its dynamics and providing strategic insights for navigating its multifaceted terrain.
The Forex Market Unveiled: A Global Phenomenon of Unprecedented Scale
The forex market stands as a towering colossus in the financial world, commanding unparalleled liquidity and facilitating trillions of dollars in transactions on a daily basis. Its decentralized nature allows it to operate seamlessly across borders and time zones, serving as the primary arena for the exchange of currencies on a global scale. From the widely traded major pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY to the more exotic combinations like GBP/NZD and AUD/CHF, the forex market boasts a diverse array of currency pairs, each with its own unique characteristics and trading dynamics.
Deciphering the Forces Behind Market Movements: A Symphony of Economic Indicators
At the heart of forex market dynamics lie a plethora of economic indicators and events that shape investor sentiment and drive currency valuations. Central bank meetings, with their decisions on interest rates and monetary policy, wield significant influence over market sentiment and can trigger pronounced fluctuations in currency prices. Similarly, employment data, GDP reports, inflation figures, and retail sales statistics all offer valuable insights into the health of an economy and can impact currency movements in profound ways.
Navigating the Forex Landscape: The Art of Research and Strategic Planning
Success in the forex market hinges on a combination of knowledge, skill, and strategic planning. Conducting thorough research becomes imperative for traders seeking to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and identify potential trading opportunities. By staying abreast of upcoming news events, economic releases, and geopolitical developments, traders can position themselves strategically and adapt their trading strategies accordingly. Moreover, understanding the seasonal trends and historical patterns that influence currency pairs can provide traders with a valuable edge in their decision-making process.
Trading Around News Events: Exercising Caution and Implementing Risk Management Strategies
While trading around news events can offer lucrative opportunities for profit, it also carries inherent risks that must be managed effectively. Novice traders may be tempted to enter the market impulsively in the hopes of capitalizing on short-term price movements, but seasoned professionals understand the importance of exercising caution and implementing robust risk management strategies. By setting clear stop-loss levels, diversifying their portfolios, and adhering to disciplined trading practices, traders can mitigate the potential impact of market volatility and safeguard their capital against adverse movements.
Conclusion: Embracing the Challenges and Opportunities of the Forex Market
In conclusion, the forex market presents traders with a myriad of challenges and opportunities that require a nuanced understanding of its underlying dynamics and a disciplined approach to trading. By cultivating proficiency through continuous learning, research, and strategic planning, traders can navigate the complexities of the forex landscape with confidence and skill. While the path to success may be fraught with obstacles, those who embrace the challenges of the forex market with determination and resilience stand to reap the rewards of their efforts and achieve their financial goals in the long run.