The Four Market phasesAccumulation:
Makers accumulate assets before most investors.
Range 6 months and higher after decline.
This phase is usually marked by flat movement.
Accumulation occurs in a gradual manner to avoid significant price changes.
Advancing:
The Market begins to grow upwards. A trend is formed, which gradually attracts more and more new investors,
which subsequently leads to an increase in demand.
As the market moves upward, other investors are encouraged to enter the market.
As a result, the excitement affects more people who want to participate.
During such a period, demand is much higher than supply.
Distribution:
Sellers sell their profitable positions to those who enter the market at a late stage.
As a rule, the distribution phase is marked by a flat movement, which absorbs demand until it is exhausted.
4th stage - Decline
At this stage, supply dominates and the price goes down almost nonstop.
In other words, after a significant portion of stocks are sold, the market begins to move downward.
Eventually, supply becomes much greater than demand, and a downtrend sets in.
Educationalposts
Diamond Pattern: How To GuideThe Diamond pattern, an often-overlooked gem in technical analysis, holds the potential for substantial profits.
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Despite its rarity, this unique pattern can be a valuable asset for traders. In this article, we'll explore the essentials of the Diamond pattern, from its formation principles to practical trading strategies.
Understanding the Diamond Pattern:
The Diamond pattern, a reversal pattern, takes shape at the top of an uptrend or the bottom of a downtrend. Recognized by its diamond shape, the pattern signifies a period of decreased volatility, with market participants positioning themselves for the next significant move.
Diamond Pattern Formation:
Top of Uptrend: Starts with an expanding triangle, followed by a converging triangle. The second wave of players triggers a rapid price decline, forming the Diamond pattern.
Bottom of Downtrend: Bears induce a sideways movement, and the second wave of traders, motivated by greed, initiates active selling. Profit-taking by the first wave of sellers leads to the formation of the Diamond pattern.
Trading Strategies:
Opening a Selling Position:
Sell when the price breaks the lower right support line and the candlestick closes below it.
Place a Stop Loss behind the nearest high.
Potential profit: 60-80% of the Diamond's height.
Alternative Selling Approach:
Enter at the breakaway of the Diamond's low for a conservative approach.
Place Stop Loss behind the nearest low or Diamond's high.
Opening a Buying Position:
Buy when the price breaks the upper right resistance line, and the candlestick closes above it.
Place a Stop Loss behind the nearest low.
Potential profit: 60-80% of the Diamond pattern size.
Alternative Buying Approach:
Enter at the breakaway of the Diamond's high for a conservative option.
Place Stop Loss behind the nearest low or Diamond's low.
Closing Thoughts:
Mastering the Diamond pattern requires patience, technical analysis skills, and disciplined risk management. Despite its infrequency on larger timeframes, the potential for significant profits makes the Diamond pattern a valuable tool in a trader's toolkit. Traders should exercise caution, ensuring the pattern is complete, and adhere to risk management rules, especially with larger stop-loss sizes on larger timeframes.
of Fibonacci RetracementsIn this article, we delve into the intricacies of the Springboard Effect of Fibonacci Retracements , drawing parallels between the trading world and the physics of a springboard.
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The Springboard Analogy:
Imagine a scenario with four different springboards, each with varying degrees of stiffness. Now, drop an identical weight from the same height onto each board. The resulting bounce illustrates the concept of retracement and extension in the context of momentum trading.
Barely Any Springs (0.236 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.236 retracement level is seen as a potential trend failure. Buyers may step in, but the bounce is likely weak. Traders shift focus to shorter-term scalping opportunities, targeting other fib levels within the retracement as potential resistance.
Few Springs (0.328 Retracement):
Here, the bounce on the 0.328% retracement is viewed with caution. While a good bounce may occur, traders remain vigilant about a potential double top, closely monitoring candlestick reactions and utilizing the CCI to identify divergence if momentum falters.
Moderate Springs (0.5 Retracement):
A bounce at the 0.5 retracement level signifies continued bullish momentum. Buyers are willing to enter at a relatively lower point, maintaining optimism. Targeting the 1.272 extension, traders consider this a bullish signal. Aligning with nearby resistance or front-running the level becomes a strategic move.
Lots of Springs (0.618 Retracement):
This scenario represents a strong market extension. A bounce at the 38.2% retracement level indicates a plethora of buyers eager to enter the market promptly. This serves as a positive sign, suggesting a robust extension. The target? The 1.618 extension, potentially aligned with a nearby resistance level.
The Springboard Effect provides traders with a tangible framework for interpreting retracements and anticipating market extensions. By aligning retracement levels with the stiffness of a springboard, traders gain insights into the potential strength or weakness of a continuation. Whether aiming for robust extensions or preparing for short-term scalps, understanding the nuances of the Springboard Effect adds value to a trader's toolkit.
Embrace this strategy, and may your trades be propelled to new heights.
[EDU]Doing this will Massively improve your Trading!Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
DRC stands for Daily Report Card
To be all transparent I adopted this from smb capital. Credits and Kudos to them.
I used it and did some modifications to suit my purpose. So you can do the same to what I have over here and modify according to your requirements.
The purpose of the daily report card is to help you keep track of your whole trading day. If you do have a day job or what not, you can adjust the DRC to be cater for a week or few days. It's up to the individuals.
So, this Daily report card of mine basically looks something like this as shown above in the charting space. And let me give some details on each of this sections.
Daily Analysis
In this section, you should start off with how you have felt in the morning. Do you feel refreshed and pumped up, or grouchy as you have had not enough sleep? Or are you feeling miserable or unhappy over the big lost you had yesterday? You can put it down over here.
Then continue on for how you would prepare your trading day by first analysing the market that you are trading on.
Goal
This will be link with the goals that you have set fore for yourself. Try to put a goal that you wanted to achieve by end of the week, month or quarter. This doesn’t necessarily be the big goal you have. It can be subset of the big goal you have.
Some examples can be, to increase my position size from 1% to 2%. Or to be able to hold my trades longer, sticking to pre-defined exit strategies and improving my risk to reward ratio etc. This goals does not necessarily needs to be monetary.
Reminders / general truth or principle
You can put some reminders and principles for yourself here. You can start off with things like focus on your goals and not the PNL, focus on your trading as required and remove any distractions (e.g. social media). These are just some examples of the many and I will leave that for you to fill them up.
What I learned/improved upon today?
To this, you can write something that you find interesting or learn about the market. For example, if you are day trading, GBP could have a particular time that you have observed where it reverses it trend. OR it could just be that you come to realize some interesting trading setups using a particular indicator etc.
Important trade, if any
Over here, you should document down trades you find it important for your to remember or refer back to later on in the week or future. This can be trade that you have did well or a trade that you performed badly. Jot it down so that in the future you can revisit and learn from it again.
Change need to be made from today?
Here are some things that you felt that you should act on it immediately for example, if you lost yourself and be emotional on losses. Put it over here and evaluate what has happened and act upon it. Or you have entered a trade haphazardly ,in fear of FOMO etc.
Overview
Just a 1-2 sentence to sum up your day.Nothing in particular but jotting down your thoughts of the day.
Finally take a look at the top left hand corner of the table I had for you. There is a X /5 which denotes the score you gave yourself on that day (if you are doing it on a daily basis).
Over here, have your own scoring system to give yourself score and hold yourself accountable for it. You can do something like, giving a score of 1 for daily analysis section, 2 for goal and 1 or important trade etc. Just to evaluate how you have done for each of these section is a quick way.
It's the year end and if you have yet to evaluate your trading performance and not sure how to go about starting, do check out the link i provided below for the post i have put up recently.
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6 Practical Tips for Futures TradingIn derivatives trading, achieving success can lead to substantial profits, but it's crucial to trade carefully to avoid costly mistakes.
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Here are six simple and practical tips to help develop a strategy for successful futures trading.
1. Craft a Clear Trade Plan
Before jumping into the market, take the time to plan your trades thoroughly. This involves setting not only profit goals but also establishing an exit plan in case the trade doesn't go as expected. A well-thought-out trading plan, including risk-management tools like stop-loss orders, can protect you from making impulsive decisions based on emotions like fear and greed.
2. Safeguard Your Positions
Protect your investments by committing to an exit strategy. Instead of relying on mental stops, use stop-loss orders to set a predetermined point at which you will exit the trade. Consider using One-Triggers-Other (OTO) orders to automate the process, triggering a protective stop when your primary order executes.
3. Focus Wisely
Avoid spreading yourself too thin by trying to trade too many markets. It's essential to concentrate on a few markets and dedicate time to studying charts, reading market commentary, and staying informed. However, don't put all your eggs in one basket either—diversification in futures trading can offer advantages.
4. Take It Slow
If you're new to futures trading, start with a cautious approach. Avoid trading large quantities at the beginning, as this could lead to significant losses. Begin with one or two contracts, develop your trading methodology, and only increase your order size when you feel confident.
5. Think Both Ways
Be open to trading opportunities in both rising and falling markets. While it's natural to want to go long, don't overlook the potential benefits of going short. This flexibility can broaden your trading opportunities and enhance your overall strategy.
6. Learn from Margin Calls
A margin call may signal that you've become emotionally attached to a losing position. Instead of adding more funds or reducing positions to meet the call, consider it a wake-up call. Cut your losses, learn from the experience, and move on to the next trading opportunity.
By incorporating these practical tips into your trading approach, you can navigate the futures market more confidently and increase your chances of success. Remember, a well-thought-out strategy and disciplined execution are key to achieving profitable results in futures trading.
AB ⚡️ CD — Harmonic Patterns 🟣The AB⚡️CD pattern is a highly effective tool utilized in trading to identify potential opportunities across diverse markets, including forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures.
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This pattern takes the form of a visual and geometric arrangement, characterized by three consecutive price swings or trends.
When observed on a price chart, the ABCD pattern exhibits a striking resemblance to a lightning bolt ⚡️ or a distinctive zig-zag pattern.
Importance of the ABCD Pattern
The significance of the ABCD pattern lies in its ability to identify trading opportunities across different markets, timeframes, and market conditions. Whether the market is bullish, bearish, or range-bound, the ABCD pattern remains a reliable tool.
By recognizing the completion of the pattern at point D, you can get a perspective trade entries. Furthermore, the ABCD pattern helps you determine the risk-to-reward ratio before initiating a trade. When multiple patterns converge within the same timeframe or across different timeframes, it strengthens the trade signal and increases the likelihood of a profitable outcome.
Finding an ABCD Pattern
The ABCD pattern has both a bullish and bearish version. Bullish patterns indicate higher probability opportunities to buy or go long, while bearish patterns suggest opportunities to sell or go short.
To identify an ABCD pattern, it is essential to locate significant highs or lows on a price chart, represented by points A, B, C, and D. These points define the three consecutive price swings or legs of the pattern: the AB leg, the BC leg, and the CD leg.
Trading is not an exact science, so traders often employ Fibonacci ratios to determine the relationship between the AB and CD legs in terms of both time and price. This approximation assists in locating the potential completion of the ABCD pattern. When patterns converge, it increases the probability of successful trades and enables you to make more accurate decisions regarding entries and exits.
Types of ABCD Patterns
There are three types of ABCD patterns, each having both a bullish and bearish version. To validate an ABCD pattern, specific criteria and characteristics must be met. Here are the characteristics of the bullish and bearish ABCD patterns:
📈 Bullish ABCD Pattern Characteristics (buy at point D):
To effectively trade the bullish ABCD pattern, you might consider the following characteristics:
1. Find AB:
Identify point A as a significant high and point B as a significant low. During the move from A to B, ensure that there are no highs above point A and no lows below point B.
2. After AB, then find BC:
Point C should be lower than point A. In the move from B up to C, there should be no lows below point B and no highs above point C. Ideally, point C will be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the length of AB. However, in strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB.
3. After BC, then draw CD:
Point D, which marks the completion of the pattern, must be lower than point B, indicating that the market has successfully achieved a new low. During the move from C down to D, there should be no highs above point C.
4.1 Determine where D may complete (price):
To determine the price level at which point D may complete, Fibonacci and ABCD tools can be utilized. CD may equal AB in price, or it may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB in price. Alternatively, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC in price.
4.2 Determine when point D may complete (time) for additional confirmation:
For additional confirmation, you can analyze the time aspect of the pattern. CD may equal AB in time, or it may be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the time it took for AB to form. Additionally, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of the time it took for AB to form.
5. Look for Fibonacci, pattern, trend convergence:
Convergence of Fibonacci levels, pattern formations, and overall trend can strengthen the trade signal. Therefore, you should look for instances where these elements align.
6. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging candles in the CD leg:
As the market approaches point D, it is important to monitor for any price gaps or wide-ranging candles in the CD leg. These may indicate a potential strongly trending market, and you might expect to see price extensions of 127.2% or 161.8%.
📉 Bearish ABCD Pattern Characteristics (sell at point D):
To effectively trade the bearish ABCD pattern, you might consider the following characteristics:
1. Find AB:
Identify point A as a significant low and point B as a significant high. During the move from A up to B, ensure that there are no lows below point A and no highs above point B.
2. After AB, then find BC:
Point C should be higher than point A. In the move from B down to C, there should be no highs above point B and no lows below point C. Ideally, point C will be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the length of AB. However, in strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB.
3. After BC, then draw CD:
Point D, which marks the completion of the pattern, must be higher than point B, indicating that the market has successfully achieved a new high. During the move from C up to D, there should be no lows below point C and no highs above point D.
4.1 Determine where D may complete (price):
To determine the price level at which point D may complete, Fibonacci and ABCD tools can be utilized. CD may equal AB in price, or it may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB in price. Alternatively, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC in price.
4.2 Determine when point D may complete (time) for additional confirmation:
For additional confirmation, you can analyze the time aspect of the pattern. CD may equal AB in time, or it may be around 61.8% or 78.6% of the time it took for AB to form. Additionally, CD can be 127.2% or 161.8% of the time it took for AB to form.
5. Look for Fibonacci, pattern, trend convergence:
Convergence of Fibonacci levels, pattern formations, and overall trend can strengthen the trade signal. Therefore, you should look for instances where these elements align.
6. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging bars/candles in the CD leg:
As the market approaches point D, it is important to monitor for any price gaps or wide-ranging bars/candles in the CD leg. These may indicate a potential strongly trending market, and you might expect to see price extensions of 127.2% or 161.8%.
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How To Read Currency PairsHere's a quick and comprehensive guide on how you can read currency pairs as a forex trader!
As usual my objective is to simplify all aspects of trading, so that even someone who has never seen a chart before, can make sense of the topic at hand.
Let's get into it -
Currency pairs are a combination of 2 different currencies and we can trade them based on how they are compared to each other in terms of price (weighted against each other).
How can we use this to make money?
1. Understand the Exchange Rate
Let's assume that the current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.10, that means of €1 is valued at $1.10.
2. Buy Euros
If you start with $1000 and you believe the exchange rate may increase in the future, it would be a good idea to convert your Dollars into Euros at the current rate.
$1000 / 1.10 (exchange rate) = €909.09
3. Wait for Appreciation
Now, let's assume the exchange rate increases to 1.15. This means that €1 is now worth $1.15.
4. Exchange Back to Dollars
With your 909.09 Euros, you can convert them back into Dollars at the new exchange rate.
€909.09 x 1.15 (new exchange rate) = $1045.45
So, in this example, you've potentially made a profit of $45.45 by anticipating and benefiting from a favorable change in the exchange rate.
Major Currency pairs
CAPITALCOM:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDCHF OANDA:AUDUSD OANDA:NZDUSD FX:USDCAD
Minor Currency Pairs
FX:EURGBP OANDA:EURAUD FOREXCOM:GBPJPY OANDA:AUDJPY OANDA:NZDJPY FX:EURJPY OANDA:GBPAUD FX:AUDNZD OANDA:EURCAD FX:GBPCAD
That's a mouthful to take in so I'll leave you there.
Hope this post helps and as usual...
Happy Hunting Predators
🦁🐯🦈
[EDU]What has happened to USDJPY?More downside ?Here's my PlanHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
In short, here are some key takeaways from the news on Thursday from the BOJ:
asia.nikkei.com
- The JPY strengthened by over 5 yen against the dollar in response to comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinting at a potential exit from the bank's negative interest rate policy .
- BOJ Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino's statement that exiting the negative-rate policy would have limited impact fueled speculation of a policy shift, contributing to yen appreciation.
- Market briefly hit $141 then settled at $143.
- The BOJ is set to hold its final policy meeting of the year on Dec. 18 and Dec. 19. Speculation grows about potential modifications to policy, including ending negative interest rates or adjusting the yield curve control policy.
My thoughts:
From the pointers above, it is obvious what has led to the sudden strong buying of the JPY (USDJPY goes down).
Firstly, ever since Japan's stance on continuing the monetary easing in Japan as compared to other major countries it can be obvious from Chart that JPY has depreciated greatly.
Now that there is hint of removing this easing, JPY spiked up sharply.
From this event, we can also witness that how a 'few words' from key stakeholders in the Forex market can led to huge volatility in the Forex markets. If you have short positions, most likely you got profits, what if you are on LONG and without stoploss ? So, always manage your position, put stoploss!
Moving forward:
I feel this effect will be in play till BOJ's last meeting on 18-19 Dec.
So from now till then, I would be looking to go short on USDJPY.
Looking at the charts (refer to charts):
Weekly = Potential double top forming
Daily and H4 = Trendline broke with Lower Lows and Lower highs. On H4,I am watching the blue zone for turning points.,namely 145 and 146 levels.
Are after 18-19Dec, let's see what speech will be delivered and plan our trade accordingly from there.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU]How to Evaluate your 2023 Trade Journal and performance?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
To be a profitable, consistent and successful trader, I have yet seen anyone of them without a trading journal. This shows how important a trading journal is to a trader and the values it can bring to them.
So, without further ado, let's see what we should look at and take note of when we do our year end trading journal review (although this review,in a shorter format, be done on a weekly and monthly or quarterly basis)
Before you start we should look at what goals have you setup yourself for. It can be 1 -3 big goals you have for the year 2023. E.g. Hit specific $ for your PNL or improve on your win rate % etc.
Are there also minor goals that you have that you added along the way?
Then we can move on to our journal.
1. 1st we can have a bird's eye view of things :
Overall performance, some metrics that you should focus and look at,they are:
P&L
Win rate %
Expectancy
Profit factor
Average R multiple
Drawdown and max. drawdown
Sharpe ratio
Worst and Best trades
2. Looking deeper into things :
a. Look through all the trades you have done, do you come by noticeable pattern such on the wins and the losses. E.g. it can be you took more number of losses on Monday Morning, or you tend to close off positions without a valid reason to exit etc.
b. Filter through your trades to see what time or day you trade best, if any.
c. Look at your top 5 to 10 most profitable and most losses trades. Evaluate them in terms of:
> Why they end up as a loser/winner
> Are they align with your assumptions such as best winners come from your A+ setups etc.
> What are the things you did right for your best trades and what you did wrong for those losing trades. What you can improve on them or what you can continue doing things that went well.
3. Psychological resilience :
This is important part of the journal as well where you reflect on your psychology throughout the year. You should have it documented somewhere and you can evaluate how well you have managed emotions such as stress, and maintained discipline during periods of drawdown or winning steaks. What you have and have not done and what can be done better. But of course, you should have done it over the course of the year and summarize out some findings along the way.
4. Learning and development :
- Look back at the strategies you have on hands, which are your bread and butter setups and what new strategies or setups you have incorporated.
- Are there any market insights you acquired over the year, this should come handy to improve your edge in trading.
- Also do identify where are your further learning and development area that you can focus to improve your trading proficiency.
Finally, here's what I would like to share in the next sharing. I will be sharing how you can proper set goals for yourself and track them then improve consistently as a trader!So, yup, stay tuned!
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Forex: The Impact of (Geo)Political Factors.In the vast expanse of the currency market, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye, understanding the multifaceted risks is crucial. Beyond the charts and technical indicators lies a force often underestimated — geopolitical risk. In this exploration, we unravel the intricacies of geopolitical risks and delve into the political factors that cast a profound shadow over the forex market.
I. Decoding Geopolitics:
To comprehend the significance of geopolitical risk, one must first grasp the term "geopolitical." It involves the intricate study of how geography, political systems, and international relations intersect to mold global politics. Geopolitics explores the strategic importance of geographic spaces, resource distribution, and the influence of political power on a global scale. In essence, it is the lens through which we examine the interplay between geography and political dynamics to fathom how nations behave on the world stage.
II. The Unseen Forces: Geopolitical Risks in Forex
Geopolitical risks are potent influencers in the currency market, steering exchange rates and market sentiment. Several factors contribute to this influence:
Political Instability and Unrest:
Civil unrest and regime changes breed uncertainty, impacting investor confidence and currency values.
Trade Tensions:
Disputes between major economies create market uncertainty, affecting trade flows and currency values.
Military Conflicts:
Armed conflicts or geopolitical tensions can prompt currency depreciation as investors perceive heightened risk.
Terrorism:
Acts of terrorism introduce fear, potentially leading to currency depreciation in affected countries.
Economic Sanctions:
Imposing sanctions disrupts trade and financial transactions, influencing a country's currency value.
Political Leadership and Policy Changes:
Shifts in political leadership or policy direction induce currency volatility by impacting investor confidence.
Natural Disasters:
While not strictly geopolitical, natural disasters can disrupt economies and influence currency values.
Global Health Crises:
Pandemics impact global trade and currencies through measures like lockdowns and travel restrictions.
Brexit-Like Events:
Instances where countries contemplate leaving unions create uncertainty with repercussions for currency markets.
III. The Forex Symphony: How Geopolitical Risks Conduct the Orchestra
Geopolitical risks impact the forex market through a complex interplay of economic and political factors. Heightened geopolitical risk injects uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. Currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc often benefit as investors flock to stability during times of crisis.
Political dynamics play a pivotal role in shaping the forex market:
Government Stability and Policies:
Political stability and policy implementation influence investor confidence and currency values.
Economic Policies and Reforms:
Political decisions on economic policies impact a country's economic outlook and currency values.
Political Events and Elections:
Elections inject uncertainty, affecting market sentiment as traders anticipate political changes.
Trade Policies and Agreements:
Political decisions on trade policies influence currency values, introducing volatility to the forex market.
Central Bank Actions:
Central banks' decisions, influenced by politics, impact currency values as traders monitor monetary policy shifts.
Government Debt and Budget Deficits:
Political decisions on fiscal policies influence a country's debt levels and fiscal health, impacting the currency.
Corruption and Governance Issues:
High levels of corruption erode investor confidence, influencing currency values.
Social and Political Stability:
Broader stability in social and political realms influences the forex market and investor perceptions.
Public Perception and Confidence:
Political factors shape public confidence, impacting economic activities and currency values.
In the sea of the forex market, geopolitical risks and political factors are the unseen currents shaping its course. Traders and investors must master the art of navigating these turbulent waters, understanding that beyond charts and algorithms, the geopolitical landscape and political dynamics are the true captains of the ship. In this ever-evolving arena, adaptability, foresight, and a keen understanding of geopolitics are the compasses guiding traders to success in the unpredictable world of currency trading.
The geopolitical events stand as formidable forces capable of reshaping exchange rates and creating market volatility. From Brexit to trade wars and geopolitical tensions, understanding the historical impact of these events on currency markets is crucial for traders seeking to navigate the tumultuous seas of forex. This article explores notable geopolitical events that have left an indelible mark on exchange rates and provides strategic insights on mitigating the associated risks.
Geopolitical Events and Their Impact:
Brexit (2016):
The UK's decision to exit the EU led to a sharp decline in the British pound, reflecting uncertainty about the economic consequences of the separation.
GBP/USD sharp drop in 2016
US-China Trade War (2018-2019):
Trade tensions between the US and China influenced exchange rates, with the Chinese yuan being particularly sensitive to developments in the trade dispute.
European Debt Crisis (2010-2012):
The sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone led to fluctuations in the euro as concerns about the stability of the currency and the future of the EU affected exchange rates.
EUR/USD fluctuations throughout 2010-2012
Russian Annexation of Crimea (2014):
Geopolitical tensions and sanctions imposed by Western countries led to a significant depreciation of the Russian ruble.
Arab Spring (2010-2012):
Political uprisings across Arab countries caused volatility in currencies like the Egyptian pound and the Tunisian dinar.
North Korean Nuclear Tests (2017):
Geopolitical tensions resulting from North Korea's nuclear tests impacted currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Japanese yen and the South Korean won.
9/11 Attacks (2001):
The terrorist attacks had far-reaching consequences on global financial markets, influencing the US dollar over the longer term.
Dollar Index after 9/11
US Invasion of Iraq (2003):
Geopolitical events surrounding the invasion led to increased uncertainty and affected currencies in the Middle East, notably the Iraqi dinar.
Mitigating Geopolitical Risks: Strategies for Forex Traders
Stay Informed:
Regularly follow reputable news sources to stay informed about political events, economic indicators, and policy decisions that could impact the forex market.
Diversify Your Portfolio:
Avoid overconcentration in a single currency or region. Diversification spreads risk and minimizes the impact of adverse geopolitical events on specific positions.
Use Risk Management Tools:
Implement tools such as Stop Loss and Take Profit orders to limit potential losses and secure gains. Setting appropriate risk-reward ratios enhances effective trade management.
Monitor Economic Indicators:
Keep an eye on economic indicators affected by geopolitical events. Understanding the economic fundamentals of traded currencies helps anticipate market reactions.
Understand Correlations:
Be aware of correlations between currencies and other assets, helping gauge potential spillover effects from other markets during times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Utilize Safe-Haven Currencies:
Allocate a portion of your portfolio to safe-haven currencies, such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, or Swiss franc, during heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Stay Flexible:
Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy based on changing geopolitical conditions. Flexibility is key to adjusting your approach in response to evolving circumstances.
Regularly Review and Reassess:
Periodically review and reassess your trading strategy in light of changing geopolitical conditions. Markets can shift, and adjusting your strategy is crucial to remain relevant.
Conclusion:
In the dynamic world of forex trading, geopolitical risks are inherent, and their impact on exchange rates is undeniable. Traders armed with historical insights and proactive risk management strategies can navigate these uncertainties with confidence. While eliminating all risks is impossible, staying informed, diversifying portfolios, and employing risk management tools empower traders to weather the storms and emerge resilient in the face of geopolitical challenges. Embracing these approaches not only limits potential losses but also positions traders to seize opportunities in the ever-changing forex landscape.
Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership.
In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum.
Fundamental Analysis in Forex:
Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies.
Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy:
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames.
Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability:
The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP.
The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other.
Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement.
Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy:
Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar:
Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report.
Check for News Release Postponements:
Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report.
Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar:
Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events.
Prepare for High Volatility:
Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release.
Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data:
Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar.
Monitor Unemployment Statistics:
Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions.
Be Cautious of Contradictory Data:
Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes.
Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside:
Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process.
Consider Multiple Currency Pairs:
Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities.
Implement Risk Management:
Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size.
Practice on Demo Accounts:
Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution.
Continuous Learning and Adaptation:
Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments.
By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event.
Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders.
1 ) Pending Orders Strategy:
Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders:
Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility.
Manage Triggered Orders:
When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously.
As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position.
Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position.
Stop Loss Considerations:
Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements.
Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization:
Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions.
As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this?
The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event.
In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency.
By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order.
Strategy N.2
Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility.
This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions.
In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial.
Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
10 Day Trading TipsVenturing into day trading promises the thrill of rapid profits, but it's a realm that demands caution and strategic acumen, especially for beginners.
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To pave the way for success, this article provides 10 crucial tips, emphasizing the need for education, meticulous planning, and an unwavering commitment to continuous learning.
1. Invest Time in Education:
Embark on your day trading journey by immersing yourself in knowledge. Explore online courses, books, and forums that delve into market intricacies, trading strategies, and risk management. A solid grasp of technical and fundamental analysis, chart patterns, and market psychology is foundational for success.
2. Develop a Solid Plan:
Day trading without a clear plan is akin to navigating uncharted waters without a map. Establish a comprehensive strategy outlining your objectives, risk tolerance, preferred markets, timeframes, and capital allocation. A well-defined plan serves as your anchor, fostering discipline and informed decision-making.
3. Prioritize Risk Management:
Safeguard your capital by making risk management your top priority. Seasoned traders advocate risking no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any given trade. Implement stop-loss orders to curtail losses and shield your investment.
4. Practice with a Demo Account, Including TradingView's Paper Trading:
Before venturing into live trading, it's crucial to hone your skills and test your strategies in a risk-free environment. Many brokers offer demo accounts with virtual funds, mimicking real market conditions. This allows you to gain experience, refine your strategy, and build confidence without the fear of losing actual money.
Additionally, consider leveraging TradingView's paper trading feature. TradingView, a versatile charting platform, provides a simulated trading environment known as paper trading. With this tool, you can execute trades in real-time using virtual funds, closely simulating actual market conditions. This integration allows you to apply technical analysis, test strategies, and familiarize yourself with the platform's features before committing to live trading.
Using both traditional demo accounts and platforms like TradingView's paper trading feature provides a comprehensive practice regimen. It not only helps you become proficient in executing trades but also ensures that you are well-prepared for the dynamic challenges of day trading when you transition to live markets.
5. Choose the Right Broker:
Selecting a reliable broker is paramount for day trading success. Seek a broker with low commissions, rapid execution times, and a user-friendly trading platform. Regulatory compliance is crucial for fund protection, and auxiliary factors like customer support and educational resources should also be considered.
6. Master Technical Analysis:
Technical analysis forms the bedrock of day trading. Grasp the art of reading price charts, identifying trends, and recognizing support and resistance levels. Familiarize yourself with key technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands to inform your trading decisions.
7. Develop a Tailored Trading Strategy:
Crafting an effective trading strategy is pivotal for day trading success, and today's traders have access to powerful tools that can significantly enhance their capabilities.
Utilize TradingView with PineScript and Strategy Tester:
Leverage the robust features of TradingView, a popular charting platform. With its proprietary scripting language, PineScript, traders can create custom indicators and strategies tailored to their specific needs. The Strategy Tester allows you to backtest your strategies against historical data, providing valuable insights into their performance.
If you not familiar with the PineScript Take your trading strategy to the next level with Vestinda, an app that empowers traders to build strategies without the need for coding. With a library of over 200 templates, you can choose a strategy that aligns with your preferences and easily customize it to suit your liking. Vestinda also offers a comprehensive backtesting feature, allowing you to simulate your strategy's performance under various market conditions and assets.
By incorporating these advanced tools into your strategy development process, you refining, and optimizing your trading approach. Whether you prefer the flexibility of PineScript on TradingView or the user-friendly interface of Vestinda, these tools empower you to make data-driven decisions and stay ahead in the dynamic world of day trading.
8. Stay Informed:
Remain vigilant and well-informed about market news and events that can influence your trades. Leverage economic calendars, financial news websites, and social media platforms as valuable sources of information. Be prepared for market volatility, especially during significant economic releases and news events.
9. Control Your Emotions:
Emotional discipline is paramount in day trading, where fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Adhere to your trading plan, follow risk management rules, and avoid revenge trading. Developing emotional resilience is critical for sustained success.
10. Keep Detailed Records:
Maintain a meticulous trading journal documenting entry and exit points, trade sizes, profits, and losses. This tool facilitates performance analysis, identifies improvement areas, and fine-tunes your strategy. A detailed record is your compass for assessing progress and making necessary adjustments.
Day trading offers a lucrative path for those willing to invest time and effort into mastering the craft. Approach it with caution, discipline, and a commitment to continuous learning. By educating yourself, crafting a solid plan, and adhering to these tips, you enhance your prospects of success in the dynamic world of day trading. Remember, proficiency takes time, so be patient and persistent on your journey to financial independence.
Let's Dollar Cost Average with Ethereum 🎯Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
In this 5min video, you'll see an example on arguably one of the most important strategies that every trader should know : The Dollar-Cost-Average method. When it comes to time for buying towards the end of a bearish market (ideally the accumulation zone), buy too soon and you risk regret if the price drops. But, if you wait and the price goes up, you may feel like you missed out on a deal. Or worse, you end up without a position.
When you dollar-cost average, you invest percentages of your available money at different entry points. Rather than attempting to time the market and catch the exact bottom, you buy in at a range of different prices. Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that increases your profitability, as well as allows you to sleep soundly and carry on with your life without having to watch the charts all day.
Like with most investment strategies, dollar-cost averaging is not for everyone (not ideal for short term swings or day traders), and there are times it works better than others (during the end of the mark down phase). But it can be a powerful tool for removing some of the emotional barriers to investing. In this video, we look at how dollar-cost averaging works and the best ways to use the strategy.
While you're here 👀 learn more about stop hunt's in this post:
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[EDU] Why doesn't Market goes in a straight line? 3 Reasons WhyHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
1. Market Psychology and Greed/Fear Dynamics
Trader psychology plays a significant role in market movements. As prices rise, greed may drive buying, causing the market to become overbought (likewise when market is down). Eventually, fear sets in as traders worry about a potential reversal. This fear can lead to profit-taking and trigger a pullback. This can happen at previous supply demand zone,pivot points, whole or quarter numbers etc)
2. Profit-taking
- Traders who entered the market early in the trend may decide to take profits as the price moves in their favor. This selling activity can lead to a temporary pullback as these traders exit their positions.
3. Fundamental Factors
- Economic events, geopolitical developments, or changes in market sentiment can trigger profit-taking or reevaluation of positions. Unexpected news or data releases may prompt traders to adjust their positions, resulting in a temporary pullback. (E.g. ECB or FED Speeches, unexpected rate changes not aligned with expectations, outbreak of diseases/wars)
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[EDU] Why Risking 5-10% a trade is sucidal?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Here are 5 reasons why it is too RISKY and you should'nt do it!
> Challenges to recover
- Large losses require proportionally larger gains to recover. A 50% drawdown requires you to have a gain of 100% to BREAKEVEN!
> Emotional Stresses
- Trading with such high risk can amplify your stress and anxiety. Fear and panic may set in during losing streaks, impairing sound decision-making and leading to impulsive actions.
> Account Blow-Up Risk
- You just need to have a string of 5-6 losses and that will be devasting to both your mental and capital, which could lead to margin calls.
> Reduced Learning Opportunities
- Excessive risk can limit the number of learning opportunities for a trader. If a significant portion of the trading capital is lost quickly, the trader may not have the resources to apply lessons learned from mistakes. Why not risk 1-3% a trade, if at 1% you have under your belt , 100 times to lose !
> Market Volatility Impact
- In volatile market conditions, high-risk strategies can be particularly vulnerable. Sudden price movements can result in larger-than-expected losses.What if you got caught in a black swan event? Ouch...That sucks!
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Crypto101 - How to Make Money with DeFiHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher.
If you’ve been following me on TradingView for a while, you’ll now that I’m a believer – a believer in the promise of blockchain. One of the principals of this promise is to move away from centrally controlled banking systems. This would eventually include the act of saving and earning interest for the money that you leave in the capable hands of your banker (who also gets to decide whether or not you qualify for loans). Currently, you need to give up all of your personal information to open a bank account and furthermore you are seriously undercut in the returns / interest rate that you will be receiving (to name only two of many problems with the system). For example, where I reside, the most common interest on a savings account is 5% annually, whereas the interest on your credit card is 19.5% annually.
Before we continue, familiarize yourself with these Key Terms:
TVL – Total Value Locked in the platform
DEX - A decentralized exchange. Peer-to-peer marketplace where transactions occur directly between crypto traders like Coinbase and Binance
Blockchain – A unique way of coding that is open for anyone to use, many believe that web3 will be built on top this kind of coding
DeFi – Decentralized Finance such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins
dApp – Software like apps that work on the basis of blockchain code and thus apps that accommodate cryptocurrency such as UniSwap and NFT Market places
LP tokens - New liquidity pool tokens. LP tokens represent a crypto liquidity provider's share of a pool, and the crypto liquidity provider remains entirely in control of the token. For example, if you contribute $10 USD worth of assets to a Balancer pool that has a total worth of $100, you would receive 10% of that pool's LP tokens.
APY - Annual Percentage Yield, think of it as yearly interest in percentage
Smart Contracts — Electronic, digital contracts coded to integrate with dApps. Automated financial agreements between two or more parties once the pre-determined terms of the contract is reached
With the rise of Blockchain, Crypto and then Decentralized apps, yield farming was born to address some of the banking system's limits. Or at least, that would be in the perfect world. Yield farming is the process of using DeFi to maximize returns. Users lend or borrow crypto on a DeFi platform and earn cryptocurrency in return for their services. This works for both parties, because yield farmers provide liquidity to various token pairs and you earn rewards in cryptocurrencies. However, yield farming can be a risky practice due to price volatility, rug pulls, smart contract hacks etc.
Yield farming allows investors to earn interest which is called ‘yield’ by putting coins or tokens in a dApp, which is an application (coded software) that integrates with blockchain code. Examples of dApps include crypto wallets, exchanges and many more. Yield farmers generally use decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to lend, borrow or stake coins to earn interest and speculate on price swings. Yield farming across DeFi is facilitated by smart contracts.
Let’s take a closer look at the different types of yield farming:
Liquidity provider: You deposit two coins to a DEX to provide trading liquidity. Exchanges charge a small fee to swap the two tokens which is paid to liquidity providers. This fee can sometimes be paid in new liquidity pool (LP) tokens.
Lending: Coin or token holders can lend crypto to borrowers through a smart contract and earn yield from interest paid on the loan.
Borrowing: Farmers can use one token as collateral and receive a loan of another. Users can then farm yield with the borrowed coins. This way, the farmer keeps their initial holding, which may increase in value over time, while also earning yield on their borrowed coins.
Staking: There are two forms of staking in the world of DeFi. The main form is on proof-of-stake blockchains, where a user is paid interest to pledge their tokens to the network to provide security. The second is to stake LP tokens earned from supplying a DEX with liquidity. This allows users to earn yield twice, as they are paid for supplying liquidity in LP tokens which they can then stake to earn more yield.
Yield farmers who want to increase their yield output can also use more complex tactics. For example, yield farmers can constantly shift their cryptos between multiple loan platforms to optimize their gains. Pro Tip: Use a High-Speed, Anonymous VPN. This lets you securely access the internet in an untraceable way. If you’re a cryptocurrency trader, you may want to remain anonymous or mask your IP address to another location.
With all of the above mentioned, the first step would be to determine your needs or interests and thereafter, opening an account or accounts. A few popular places to start exploring include:
1. Quint – Voted one of the best yield farming crypto platforms for 2022
2. Uniswap - Second-largest decentralized exchange (DEX) behind Curve Finance
3. YouHodler – Worldwide Exchange with yield farming
4. eToro – Regulated platform offering crypto interest tools
5. Crypto.com – Great platform for earning a high APY on Stablecoins
6. BlockFi – Popular Platform for Bitcoin yields. BlockFi was one of the first platforms to launch its own crypto credit card. The BlockFi Rewards Visa Signature Credit Card earns up to 2% back in the cryptocurrency of your choice and doesn't charge an annual fee
7. Coinbase – Top-Rated yield-generating platform for beginners
8. DeFi Swap – Overall best DeFi yield farming platform 2022 , earning up to 75% APY on DeFi coins
9. AQRU – Voted one of the best crypto Yield farming platforms for 2022
10. Aave - Reigning DeFi king in terms of total value locked
Note that the above is in no specific order. On the chart, you will see some fast facts on some of the options that these platforms offer. This is also not a shill, and I am not currently participating in any of the above mentioned. This is just intended as an easy introduction to another branch of what the world of Blockchain and DeFi has to offer.
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Spot A Reliable Bottom Pattern 👀Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
Are we there yet? Are we THERE YET? Now? How about NOW ??
We can't help it - towards the end of a bearish cycle, we're all wondering - when are we bottoming? In today's chart, I've pulled up a few of my favorite candlestick patterns and chart patters. I find these especially useful in higher timeframes. And yes, there are MANY MORE. These are just some of my favorites.
These patterns are what I will be looking for in this part of the cycle (accumulation phase). During this part, there can be lot's of foul play, noise, shakeouts etc. I personally won't be convinced of a reversal until a clear pattern can be observed.
While you're here 🖐 Want to know a little more on how to do distributed entry's / dollar-cost-average? See HERE:
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Understanding Lagging and Leading Indicators in CryptocurrencyIn this article, we'll explore the concepts of leading and lagging indicators, common examples, and delve into the specific indicators within crypto transactional data.
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What Are Leading and Lagging Indicators?
Before we dive into the crypto-specific details, let's establish the basics. In the realm of technical analysis, indicators for traditional financial assets are often categorized as Leading, Lagging, or Macro.
Leading Indicator: Points towards the potential future direction of the price.
Lagging Indicator: Confirms patterns in prices after they have formed.
Both types of indicators play a crucial role in understanding market dynamics and making informed trading decisions.
Common Examples of Leading & Lagging Indicators
To illustrate, let's examine two common examples:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): A leading indicator, RSI hints at whether the market is becoming overbought or oversold.
Moving Averages: A lagging indicator that relies on historical data, providing a retrospective view of average price behavior.
Crypto-Specific Leading Indicators
1. Mining Data
Mining, the backbone of the Bitcoin network, involves running the hashing algorithm to secure transaction integrity. Key indicators include:
Hash Rate: Indicates the network's strength; a higher hash rate implies a more robust Bitcoin network.
Mining Distribution: Assess whether mining concentration is increasing, potentially impacting network decentralization.
Transaction Fees: Offers insights into user types and potential adoption trends.
2. Network Activity
A proxy for customer data, network activity includes:
Number of Addresses: Reflects user engagement.
Transactions per Second: Indicates transactional activity levels.
Average Transaction Value: Provides insights into transaction sizes.
3. Scarcity
Bitcoin's scarcity is a fundamental characteristic, and the Stock-to-Flow model gauges this relationship:
Stock-to-Flow (SF): Measures scarcity by assessing the ratio of existing stocks to new stocks.
4. Broader Ecosystem Data
Metrics from various sources like Blockchain.com, Glass Node, and Woo Bull Charts offer insights:
Market Value vs Realised Value (MVRV): Measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its last price movement, indicating user hoarding behavior.
Wallet and Exchange Data: Tracks metrics like wallet downloads and exchange customer growth.
Macro Indicators in Crypto
1. The Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY measures the US Dollar against other currencies, showing a correlation with Bitcoin:
A falling DXY suggests dollar weakness, potentially driving investors towards Bitcoin as a store of value.
2. Stock Markets
Bitcoin's relationship with stock markets is complex:
Currently correlated due to similar investment behaviors in search of yield.
A changing relationship could indicate shifts in broader market dynamics.
3. Bond Yields
Bond yields act as a macro indicator:
Increasing bond yields are a leading indicator of inflation, potentially affecting Bitcoin positively due to its store of value characteristics.
While these indicators operate in the short term, the Fundamental Analysis, exploring broader measures of adoption and influence on prices. Understanding both technical and fundamental aspects is essential for navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
"Bitcoin Halving: Your Complete Guide""Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing well. Without further delay, let's proceed to the chart."
"The Bitcoin halving is a significant event in the cryptocurrency market, happening approximately every four years. It involves cutting the block reward for miners in half, reducing the new BTC supply by 50%. The next halving is expected in early 2024, occurring after 840,000 blocks, and will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block."
"The hard-coded technical mechanism forms the foundation of scarcity, providing Bitcoin with its value proposition as verifiably finite digital gold. This comprehensive guide will delve into Bitcoin halving dates, their impact on price and mining, and why they hold significant importance."
What is Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin halving refers to the periodic reduction by half of the block reward granted to miners for solving the cryptographic puzzle to add new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. This action effectively cuts in half the quantity of new Bitcoin introduced into circulation with each discovered block. Given the consistent reduction in supply alongside ongoing demand growth, these anticipated halving events typically trigger an increase in Bitcoin's market price over the subsequent 12–18 months.
Bitcoin was ingeniously designed with a fixed and capped supply of 21 million coins, gradually released through mining rewards. The periodic halving events are crucial to gradually diminishing new issuance until the total supply cap is reached. This systematic reduction in inflation enhances scarcity in a predictable manner.
Historical Significance and Market Impact
Each Bitcoin halving event has historically brought about significant market dynamics. Previous halvings have resulted in increased demand and subsequent price appreciation for Bitcoin. The decrease in block rewards directly influences the available supply, frequently creating a supply-demand imbalance that propels the price upward. After past halvings, Bitcoin has undergone remarkable bull runs, culminating in new all-time highs.
Implications for the Cryptocurrency Industry:
The Bitcoin halving event carries several implications for the broader cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity and limited supply, positioning it as a store of value akin to precious metals like gold. The halving also serves as an incentive for miners to secure the network by contributing computational power, as reduced block rewards can potentially impact mining profitability. Furthermore, the event heightens investor and public awareness, drawing attention to the innovative nature of cryptocurrencies.
Historical Bitcoin Halving Dates:
November 28, 2012 — Block 210,000 mined (Reward decreased to 25 BTC)
July 9, 2016 — Block 420,000 mined (Reward decreased to 12.5 BTC)
May 11, 2020 — Block 630,000 mined (Reward decreased to 6.25 BTC)
March 2024 (Estimated) — Block 840,000 mined (Reward expected to decrease to 3.125 BTC)
Halving Price Impact Patterns:
While various complex macroeconomic and sentiment factors contribute to Bitcoin's well-known price volatility, halvings have consistently preceded significant bull runs.
Following the initial two halvings, BTC experienced substantial increases within 12–18 months. For instance, Bitcoin was valued at under $12 during the first halving in November 2012, soaring over 100x to approximately $1,150 by December 2013.
The 2016 halving foreshadowed Bitcoin's remarkable 2017 bull run, reaching nearly $20,000. Just nine months after the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs surpassing $64,000 before retracing to a lower trading range.
This recurring pattern supports the notion that halvings shape Bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycles by significantly limiting new supply issuance while user adoption and demand continue to grow exponentially.
However, accurately predicting the timing and magnitude of peak prices following halvings remains challenging due to the multitude of variables influencing market sentiment swings.
How RSI Alerts Can Supercharge Your Long-Term Crypto PortfolioBuilding a long-term portfolio demands a strategic approach that goes beyond random buys and impulsive decisions.
Instead, savvy investors employ tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify advantageous entry points and navigate the market cycles effectively.
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Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to harness RSI alerts to fortify your long-term crypto holdings.
Step 1: Spotting Entry Opportunities with RSI < 35
When aiming for long-term crypto accumulation, the goal is to buy assets at opportune prices. Setting up your charts with the RSI indicator and adjusting the lower band to 35 enables you to pinpoint instances where cryptocurrencies in your portfolio might have experienced an unwarranted dip. This can be a golden opportunity to acquire assets for the long run, aligning with the principle of buying low.
Step 2: Steering Clear of Overbought Zones with RSI > 70
Conversely, an RSI reading surpassing 70 signals potential overbought conditions. In such instances, it's prudent to exercise caution. Holding off on new purchases during these periods or even considering exiting certain positions that have seen significant price surges allows you to safeguard your returns. Converting gains into stablecoins during overbought phases enhances liquidity, positioning you strategically for future opportunities.
Step 3: Confirm with Other Indicators & DYOR
RSI functions most effectively when complemented by other indicators. Incorporating tools like Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, and MACD provides a more comprehensive view of market conditions. Remember, thorough research is crucial. Rely on multiple indicators to reinforce your decision-making process and mitigate risks associated with single-point analyses.
Step 4: Get Timely RSI Alerts On Your Email & TradingView App
Time is of the essence in the volatile crypto market. Instead of constantly monitoring prices across various platforms, set up RSI alerts on TradingView to receive timely notifications. This ensures you don’t miss critical market movements and can respond promptly to favorable conditions or potential risks.
How to Create RSI Alerts on TradingView
Open TradingView: Log in to your TradingView account.
Select the Chart: Open the chart of the cryptocurrency you're monitoring.
Add RSI Indicator: Click on "Indicators" at the top, search for RSI "Relative Strength Index", and add it to your chart.
Set RSI Levels: Adjust RSI levels by clicking on the RSI label on the chart, then edit the Upper and Lower Band levels to your preferred values (e.g., 35 for Lower Band, 70 for Upper Band).
Create Alert: Click on the alarm bell icon at the top of the chart, then select "Add Alert." Choose the condition (crossing above/below RSI level), set the desired RSI level, and customize the notification settings.
Save Alert: Confirm and save your alert. You’ll now receive notifications via email or within the TradingView platform when the specified RSI conditions are met.
Effectively utilizing RSI alerts is a game-changer for long-term crypto investors. By intelligently identifying entry points, avoiding overbought conditions, confirming signals with other indicators, and staying informed with timely alerts, you position yourself for success in the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. Enhance your portfolio strategy with RSI – a tool that brings precision and efficiency to your crypto investment journey.