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My perspective of Gold-price the past 48hrs. Where to next week? Take a look please at the first chart. Basically, it breaks down the past 36 to 48 hours on a 15m, especially where buying occurred following the 2536 low, impulsive move up which to me looks like smart-money or institutional money with some retailers tagging along, price is then dragged down by a Top 1 where an M-shaped pattern otherwise known M-top forms & a trigger of the neckline causes selling, initially the usual M-top false break upwards in price, a further move down, a couple more low timeframe rally's (false) and then the bigger shift down in price. Buyers move in again at Fibonacci sequence numbers (respected) and price moves up forming a Top2 and Top3, price will most times sell-off which it did, down the rabbit hole again, which incidentally is normal price action for these Top-patterns, price tends to move above the Top pattern after Top3 price retraces. But there is also this same pattern playing out on 1hr and 2hr timeframes, a bigger pattern on price being a higher timeframe, another M-top forms with a neckline at 2560. Price tests this level several times, in fact price broke through slightly on at least 1 occasion. If its assumed that the neckline of this M-top on the 2hr timeframe was taken by price, then any move up would be a false break and that's what happened. Interesting that price did not smash through 2560 at end of session. That is normally what happens after an M-top is triggered at the neckline, price falls a little more, a false break occurs upwards and will last long enough to suck buyers in and then bam - price moves rapidly back down through neck and much lower prices ensue. Pull up a chart of any big sell-off day and you will usually find an M-Top has caused much of the damage. Second chart, is where price will find support around 2500, weak volume in the Asia session Monday and price is easily manipulated to fall lower and firstly test the recent low at 2536. This is a high confluence zone this next support level, its between the 50ema and 200ema and some Candle support from the past couple of months. This level is about 10% down from Gold's high price. Cheers, Chris.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Less is Better: The Importance of Quality Over Quantity.Throughout my journey as an independent trader, I've discovered an essential truth: whether I'm scalping on a five-minute chart for DJ30 or engaging in swing trading on a daily timeframe for GOLD, reducing time spent in front of the charts often translates to greater long-term profitability. My advice to aspiring traders is simple: concentrate on a single currency pair in the beginning. Develop a strategy for that pair, irrespective of the timeframe or trading style, and stick to it until you feel fully confident, proclaiming, "I've grasped the dynamics of this asset, and my strategy effectively works!" Aiming for just one or two trades a day with a modest risk percentage can secure a profitable future. In fact, almost 70% of retail forex traders incur losses due to overtrading and inadequate risk management. This brings us to a crucial question: should you pursue numerous trades to catch every passing opportunity, or dedicate your focus to fewer, high-quality trades that are meticulously planned? In forex trading, the quality versus quantity debate carries significant weight regarding your success. While the instinct to make more trades might suggest a path to maximizing profits, the reality is often more nuanced. By distinguishing between a quantity-focused approach and a quality-driven strategy, traders can create a plan that not only boosts profitability but also alleviates emotional stress and mitigates unnecessary risks. The Dangers of Quantity-Driven Trading The appeal of quantity trading is frequently rooted in the misconception that "more trades equal more profits." This line of thinking can be detrimental, as overtrading—executing too many trades without a thoughtful strategy—is one of the most hazardous patterns in the forex landscape. Let's delve into the risks associated with favoring quantity over quality and how disciplined trading can stave off emotional and financial turmoil. Emotional Turmoil and Impulsive Actions Engaging in overtrading imposes tremendous psychological pressure on traders, potentially leading to emotional burnout. As the frequency of trades rises, so too does the temptation to make decisions driven by emotions. A trader fixated on quantity may become easily swept up in the market's volatility, resulting in heightened levels of stress, anxiety, and fear—factors that are detrimental to sound trading practices. For instance, the fear of missing out (FOMO) can cause traders to jump into positions without sufficient analysis, simply to keep pace with the market. This lack of strategic focus undermines their success and often leads to costly missteps. Emotional trading can also lead to a damaging cycle of chasing losses, where traders increase their risks in a bid to recover quickly from setbacks, thereby compounding their financial strain. Escalating Transaction Costs A major downside of a quantity-centric trading approach is the substantial increase in transaction costs. Each trade incurs broker fees and spreads, and frequent trading can quickly deplete profits. For example, seemingly insignificant spreads can accumulate over time, effectively eating into returns. In contrast, traders who adopt a quality-over-quantity mindset tend to execute fewer, well-planned trades, thereby minimizing overall transaction costs. This strategy is designed to maximize profit from each trade, rather than engage in perpetual buying and selling. Fatigue and Loss of Concentration Forex trading can be mentally taxing, especially with a flurry of trades happening in rapid succession. Traders fixated on quantity are often at risk of losing focus after a certain point, resulting in errors and oversight. It's not uncommon for overtraders to face burnout, compromising their ability to detect critical market signals or neglecting fundamental aspects of their trading strategy. Mental fatigue can lead to slippage in performance as traders gradually lose control and forsake careful analysis. Conversely, those who prioritize quality often approach the market in a more composed state, ensuring they are both physically and mentally prepared. This clarity enables them to execute trades that are both calculated and strategically aligned with their objectives. Inconsistent Outcomes and Market Volatility The fixation on numerous trades often results in erratic results. Markets do not consistently behave in predictable patterns, and excessive trading heightens exposure to volatility. Though some trades may yield favorable outcomes, the sheer volume increases the likelihood of losses. Traders who prioritize quantity may fall into the “chasing the market” trap, making impulsive decisions based on short-term shifts rather than long-term trends. This impatience undermines trading success, as volatile market conditions often require a more measured, quality-focused approach. In contrast, quality traders remain steadfast, engaging the market only when optimal conditions arise. By patiently awaiting the right opportunity and conducting comprehensive trend analysis, these traders are more likely to achieve consistent, positive outcomes. Compromised Risk Management When quantity overshadows quality, traders can neglect vital aspects of risk management. The more trades you open, the tougher it becomes to control exposure. With numerous positions, setting appropriate stop-loss orders for each can become challenging, leading to dangerous overexposure in adverse market conditions. In contrast, quality-focused traders emphasize meticulous risk management. With fewer trades to monitor, they can diligently set tight stop-losses, manage leverage judiciously, and safeguard their capital. They are more likely to maintain a balanced portfolio, thus mitigating risks rather than exacerbating them. The Long-Term Advantage of Quality Over Quantity In forex trading, quality always surpasses quantity. By focusing on profitable trades supported by strategic planning and disciplined execution, traders can boost not only their success rate but also their overall performance. A tactical approach that prioritizes high-quality setups reduces unnecessary risks and emotional strain, which is crucial for sustainable profitability. Enhanced Profit Potential Quality trading methods yield more consistent profits over time. By channeling efforts toward well-researched trades, traders can refine their entry and exit points, ensuring higher success probabilities. These trades typically rely on robust technical and fundamental analyses, significantly amplifying the chances of realizing substantial returns. Quality trading is about seeking the best opportunities rather than merely any opportunity. This focused approach minimizes the chances of making impulsive decisions that could lead to severe losses. Superior Risk Management Practices One vital reason that quality trumps quantity is its inherent focus on risk management. Quality traders are inclined to take fewer but well-calculated risks. They usually implement tighter stop-loss measures and adhere to strict guidelines, such as committing only a small fraction of their capital to any given trade. This careful approach can curtail the risk of dramatic losses while capitalizing on profitable opportunities. Traders who prioritize quality cultivate a resilient trading plan that protects them from significant market fluctuations and unforeseen volatility. Reduced Emotional Burden A lesser-known advantage of prioritizing quality over quantity in trading lies in the significant reduction of emotional stress. Frequent trading can lead to feelings of burnout, anxiety, and distress, particularly when outcomes diverge from expectations. In contrast, quality traders maintain a more stable emotional state, as they do not find themselves constantly fluctuating in and out of trades. This balanced outlook is essential for preserving objectivity and avoiding rash choices, such as revenge trades or decisions made in frustration. By adhering to a comprehensive trading plan and focusing on high-quality setups, traders can engage with the market more confidently and patiently. This ultimately leads to fewer mistakes and ensures that each trade is executed with a disciplined mindset. The Role of Trading Psychology: Striking the Right Balance The interplay between quality and quantity in forex trading cannot overlook the critical influence of trading psychology. A trader's mindset significantly impacts their trading behavior, often determining whether they will succumb to overtrading or maintain the discipline required for quality trades. Understanding the Psychology Behind Overtrading The desire for constant activity drives many traders toward overtrading. Fear of missing out on potential gains can lead to impulsive decisions, where quantity is prioritized at the expense of strategic quality. A relentless quest for profit can cloud judgment, leading to poorly considered trades and heightened losses. Moreover, the dopamine kick associated with successful trades makes it tempting to place additional trades, perpetuating a cycle of emotional highs and lows that can drain both mental energy and financial reserves. Importance of Emotional Discipline Engaging in quality trading necessitates a strong sense of emotional discipline. This means exercising patience while waiting for favorable setups, adhering to a well-researched strategy, and resisting impulsive actions. Traders who prioritize quality can distance themselves from emotional market fluctuations, allowing for objective, rational decision-making. Successful traders recognize that not every market movement necessitates action. They trust their analysis and remain composed, even during periods of heightened market volatility. This level-headedness minimizes anxiety, making it easier to sidestep emotional pitfalls, such as revenge trading. Managing Emotions of Greed and Fear Greed and fear stand as the two most destructive emotions in trading. Greed can compel traders to overtrade, while fear can paralyze them, resulting in missed chances or reckless decisions. Focusing on quality can alleviate these emotional struggles. By establishing clear criteria for entering and exiting trades, you cultivate a systematic approach that diminishes the effects of greed and fear. For instance, when greed tempts you to exceed your strategic limits, recalling the potential emotional and financial costs of overtrading can help ground you. Similarly, quality-oriented traders are more resilient amid market downturns, as their faith in their strategies helps them recognize the broader market context. Building a Resilient Mental Framework To transition into a quality-focused trading mindset, you need to cultivate a robust mental framework encompassing the following elements: - Patience : Learning to wait for high-probability setups rather than rushing blindly into the market. - Confidence : Trusting your trading strategy and analysis, even when the market appears unpredictable. - Emotional Control : Staying composed during losing streaks or market upheavals, avoiding rash reactions. - Reflection : Regularly assessing your trades to identify patterns of impulsivity or overtrading tendencies. By mastering these psychological components, you can effectively balance quality and quantity in your trading endeavors, paving the way for long-term success in the forex market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
SP:SPXEducation
by FOREXN1
1
DOGEUSD looks overextended from big-rises. Sell or buy Dip If you follow the stochastic's at all, esp. on higher timeframes, if you don't well that is fine, but I will share my tip, you never want to see K line (generally blue) crossing down on the D line if you are in a Long position, but an even further bearish possible move is when the K-line crosses down on the 80 Stochastic's level. Now the fundamentals of the indicator are similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), anything above 80 and staying above 80 will become further overbought in a situation where there has been too much recent buying demand orders executed and as such sellers will usually move-in, but traditionally not until k Crosses-down on 80, getting to 75 will probably seal the deal short for sellers as this crossing of K needs to be a sustained crossing and needs to be moving down, this would occur much slower on a daily timeframe of course. Drop to lower timeframes and see what the oversold/overbought condition is for Stochastic's on lower TF's because the more confluence you have with the Daily the better. It does not necessarily have to be on the Daily, but bigger timeframes carry bigger profits, generally, depending on SL position and risk/reward. Often, the first TF to meet the setup will be a lower TF, but profits can be made on a Crossing of the Daily chart, it would mean the trade is probably safer in higher TF, by that I mean trade goes your way in your intended direction, in this instance Short. But here is the controversy of Stochastic X-ups (bullish above 20 level) & X-downs (bearish on a break of 80 lower), they are not very reliable when you are going against the trend. For example, the DOGEUSD crypto has had a massive run lately since bitcoin reached around 75k, despite being at a great price, I believe, its price is overextended and considerably above the 200ema daily, so it becomes a sort of mean reversion situation where sellers form an idea from Stochastic's RSI Price action etc, that it's price needs to cool a bit as its overbought and too much current demand has driven the price too high, but here is the thing, shorting- Doge when its in a bullish uptrend with price above EMA's especially 200 will not be easy. So this method works better when you are trying to move price (down or up) in the direction of the trend and the path of least resistance. One of the main reasons is because the RSI and Stochastic's give a mixed message when the trend is not your friend. This is because momentum is still to the upside long when above the 80 level on Stochastic's and RSI, momentum is still to the bearish downside when Stochastic's' is below the 20 level. This continued momentum can last a long time in these extended zones above 80 (bullish momentum) or below 20 (bearish momentum) but usually at some point a diminishing momentum occurs as the market forms an opinion that the instrument is overbought > 80 or oversold < 20. So, the Daily chart shows how price is tipping over, right now a lot of other TFs showing bearishness as well on Stochastic's. I hope this helps your understanding, a bit long but its a lengthy topic. By the way, I don't think I will be selling DOGEUSD despite the reasons above, BTCUSD chart does not share this quality of bears moving in, at least not last time I checked a few hours ago.
EIGHTCAP:DOGEUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
1HR Fibs Gold pull-back to 61.8% Bounce-Up. Retail data soon I see that Gold pulled back to a Fibonacci sequence number 61.8% on the 1HR chart I was watching, there is probably similar on other time frames. I think the market is waiting for Retail Sales data, high number bullish for the dollar. But lets not forget the USD$ has had a good run the past 2 weeks, Gold has fallen in some ways due to the inverse history between the 2, but sometimes when the correction has been made where Gold has corrected, Gold may make a brake upwards despite USD strength and we also saw that yesterday beginning to happen. A lot of squeeze in the Gold price around 2570. I still favour a move upwards today. But wait for the data now and trade with the trend. Right after publishing this, Gold broke out. A bullish 5m cup pattern. 2569 to 2571 appears to be the buy zone , Golden-zone Fibonacci 31.2 to 50% level.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
The Chart you probably wanna see. Gold's turn. Logic. No bs. So about the chart, if you want to move straight to it. Far right is a Gold-colour vertical line & that is Monday's trading of earlier this week. Then several green vertical zones, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of this week. 2 Red horizontal lines above and below is the Gold trading range for this week. If you are wondering how big the Gold correction has been. You will see the Pink vertical line all time high to the bottom of this weeks trading range is about 9.85%. Pretty big huh. I really needed to work this out for myself, what I mean is where I think Gold will turn Does this sound like you? You are sitting in some rather massive Crypto profits, positions you have accumulated for several weeks to a even a month(s). Maybe you now have a few USD$ unrealised profits from the last week. If the above is not you and I'm guessing you are in a majority, because the vast-main of traders would not have 'the stomach' for being big-margined in money lent by brokers and to be effectively in-risk of millions of dollars in Crypto purchases and other trading assets perhaps like Gold and Currency, well like I am, but my Margin is never more than x20 (max. in Australia legally allowed). Trading is a Long-game, life-long hopefully, when you love it the same way I do. One of the best things I ever heard about trading, and its totally contradictory to what you probably hear and read from the so-called gurus, is that trading is about accumulating small-wins day in and day-out, bigger wins are fine, but consistent small wins. Not this B.S. you get fed that you can have 6 or 7 stopped-out trades, so long as you get that 1 outa 6 or 1 outa 9 wins. How is that good for your mindset. You have been fed garbage. That 1 winning trade will probably need to be a home-run, oh a home-run, which means taking on a risky means AFTER all those Stop-out trades. Small consistent wins, accumulate into profits for you and it reinforces a positive mindset. I once belonged to a trader pay subscription Signals trading group and this man who I won't name charged around 500 bucks a year, gave on average 6 currency trades a week, that is fine, but the problem was his win rate was something like 1 outa 5 and the 1 winner was a 1:1 RR. How do you profit from him? That UK man does not have to consistently beat the markets does he, because foolish and gullible traders line his pockets up every year in subscriptions. A fool and his money are soon parted, but we live and we learn sometimes I think. Wow, that got a bit deep. All I wanted to share is where I see the Gold price turning. Well about another 1% down from this weeks lowest low, we commence a support zone and said support zone on the Daily chart is situated beautifully between the 50EMA and 200EMA and importantly for Gold's trend to remain bullish the 200EMA is situated beneath price. Now, that said, I think the gas needs to come off the USD$ a bit right now, I don't think they want to overcook a dyeing currency, so if the economic data in the USA today is not favourable to the dollar, then a huge bullish rubber-band trade is back for Gold to the long side should emerge of up to 4% I feel if it really favours gold. If that is the case then we disregard my chart here of Daily Gold. Have a good day trading and make sure you properly breakdown the economic data first, so you have a clear understanding of Gold market direction. Don't simply buy or sell at a whim with your market maker in gold because all of the tricks and stunts they pull, and there is no accountability, they will probably initially set a Trap-long or a Trap-short throwing you to the wolves and then turn the market in the correct course. Oh, but push in on the gold market maker and make say $36 out of them in a trade they don't like or approve and they will make you give every dime back plus some. Which is why Im increasingly moving away from Gold trading to currency, indice and stocks.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Long-Term Investment: Building Wealth for the FutureHave you ever thought about the astounding fact that the S&P 500 has achieved approximately a 10% average annual return over the last ninety years? This statistic serves as a powerful reminder of the effectiveness of long-term investment strategies for accumulating wealth. In contrast to short-term trading, long-term investing emphasizes the gradual growth of your financial assets through the benefits of compounding returns and the overall growth of the market. Yearly Chart of the S&P 500 For individuals seeking financial security and stability, embracing a long-term investment approach is essential. This strategy involves holding onto investments—such as stocks, bonds, or real estate—over extended periods, enabling them to endure market volatility and benefit from economic growth. By concentrating on long-term objectives, you establish a strong foundation for sustainable wealth, making it suitable for those in pursuit of financial independence and a prosperous future. Grasping the fundamentals of long-term investing and applying effective strategies can help you sidestep impulsive decisions and distractions associated with short-term market movements, keeping your attention focused on achieving lasting wealth. - The Importance of Long-Term Investments for Wealth Creation - Long-term investments are crucial for wealth creation, primarily because of the advantages of compound returns. Compounding allows your initial returns to generate further earnings, leading to exponential growth over time. The longer you stay invested, the more substantial the effects of compound interest become, facilitating significant wealth accumulation. Consider this example: if you invest $10,000 at an 8% annual interest rate, at the end of the first year, your investment will grow to $10,800. In the following year, interest is calculated on $10,800 rather than the original $10,000, boosting the total to $11,664. Over decades, this compounding phenomenon can lead to remarkable increases in wealth, underscoring the effectiveness of long-term investments. In addition to the benefits of compounding, long-term investments help mitigate risk. While short-term market fluctuations can be erratic, historical evidence shows that markets generally trend upward over time. Holding investments over more extended periods allows you to ride out volatility and avoid rash decisions during downturns. This approach encourages a mindset of patience and commitment, reducing the likelihood of common errors, like panic selling during market declines. Achieving success in long-term wealth accumulation requires a disciplined approach—sticking to your investment plan despite market fluctuations. Coupled with the advantages of compound interest, long-term investing becomes a dependable pathway toward financial growth and the fulfillment of your aspirations. - Key Long-Term Investment Options - When considering your options for long-term investments, it's imperative to assess choices based on your risk tolerance, growth prospects, and their alignment with your broader financial strategy. Here are several proven avenues for long-term investors to explore: 1 - Stock Market The stock market is a favorite among long-term investors, offering multiple avenues for wealth-building. Index funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are particularly appealing due to their broad market exposure. Index funds are designed to track major indices such as the S&P 500, which has historically provided an average annual return of around 10% over the past nine decades. These funds are not only cost-effective but also inherently diversified, making them an excellent choice for novice investors and experienced portfolios alike. ETFs share many similarities with index funds but offer more flexibility as they can be traded like individual stocks. For those inclined to take a more active role, investing in individual stocks can be rewarding, provided thorough research is conducted and a focus is maintained on companies with strong growth potential. However, it's essential to balance investments in individual stocks with safer alternatives, especially within a long-term strategy. 2 - Real Estate Real estate represents another robust option for long-term investing, known for generating consistent returns through property appreciation and rental income. It provides a tangible asset, generating ongoing cash flow and serving as a hedge against inflation. Historically, property values have shown a tendency to increase over time, making real estate a fundamental piece of many long-term wealth-building strategies. Investing in real estate can take various forms, such as acquiring residential or commercial properties, or investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which allow for real estate investment without the need for direct management. Leveraging real estate through mortgages can maximize its potential as a long-term wealth generator, although it’s crucial to consider associated costs like property maintenance and taxes. Key factors to consider when investing in real estate include location, property condition, and prevailing market trends. Properties situated in high-demand or growing areas usually appreciate at a faster rate and tend to attract more reliable tenants. Understanding local market dynamics and regulations can enhance your investment decisions and outcomes. 3 - Bonds Bonds are often regarded as the safety net within an investment portfolio, providing stable and fixed income, along with lower volatility compared to stocks. They are well-suited for investors who prioritize security or are approaching retirement. Government bonds, such as U.S. Treasury bonds, are typically the safest option but come with lower yields, while corporate bonds offer higher returns but carry additional risks. Incorporating bonds into your investment portfolio can help cushion against stock market fluctuations, ensuring steady returns and protection from extreme volatility. For beginners, bonds can particularly aid in maintaining portfolio stability over time. When considering bonds, it’s essential to evaluate the issuer's credit rating, as this significantly influences the bond's risk profile. Higher-rated bonds (e.g., AAA) tend to be less risky but offer lower returns, while lower-rated bonds (e.g., junk bonds) may yield higher returns at an elevated risk. Diversifying your bond holdings across different issuers and maturities can also aid in risk management. 4- Retirement Accounts (401(k), IRAs) Retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs are vital for accumulating wealth in a tax-efficient manner. These accounts afford substantial tax benefits: contributions to traditional IRAs and 401(k)s are tax-deductible, with earnings growing tax-deferred until retirement. Roth IRAs necessitate after-tax contributions, enabling tax-free withdrawals in retirement. Retirement accounts facilitate consistent investing over decades, capitalizing on employer matching programs available with 401(k)s. This type of compounding can transform modest contributions into significant sums, making retirement accounts a crucial vehicle for long-term financial success. When utilizing retirement accounts, it’s important to contemplate your retirement timeline and the investment options within these accounts. Traditional accounts may be advantageous for those expecting to be in a lower tax bracket during retirement, while Roth accounts could benefit individuals anticipating higher tax burdens in the future. Regular reviews and adjustments based on your investment goals and risk tolerance are also essential. - Crafting a Long-Term Investment Strategy - Creating a long-term investment strategy entails careful planning and steadfast execution. Whether you are embarking on your investment journey or refining an existing plan, these steps will guide you towards sustainable financial growth: 1- Define Your Financial Goals and Assess Risk Tolerance Before diving into investments, outlining your financial objectives and understanding your risk tolerance are critical. Clarify what you aim to achieve—be it retirement preparation, purchasing a home, or funding education. Clearly defined goals will steer your investment choices and help you remain focused during market fluctuations. Equally important is gauging your risk appetite. Younger investors typically have the flexibility to take on more risk, while those nearing retirement may gravitate towards conservative strategies that emphasize capital preservation through bonds and lower-risk assets. For instance, if you aim to retire in 30 years, a portfolio with a heavier allocation to stocks may be appropriate, given their potential for higher returns despite short-term volatility. Conversely, those closer to retirement may want to shift towards bonds and dividend-paying stocks to reduce risk while ensuring a consistent income. 2- Diversify Your Portfolio Diversification is an integral aspect of any long-term investment strategy. It involves allocating your investments across different asset classes—stocks, bonds, and real estate—to mitigate risk. By diversifying, you shield your portfolio from the detrimental effects of poor performance in any one area. For example, if equities suffer during an economic downturn, your bond or real estate investments may yield positive returns, buffering against significant losses. This balanced approach is key to navigating market volatility and enhancing overall performance. Additionally, consider diversifying within asset classes. In the stock segment, this may involve investing in various sectors and industries. For bonds, diversification means holding an array of types with varied maturities and credit ratings. A well-structured portfolio could include a mix of domestic and international stocks, government and corporate bonds, in addition to real estate investments. By broadening your investments across asset classes and geographical areas, you effectively mitigate risks tied to any single investment or market. 3- Implement Dollar-Cost Averaging Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that entails investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, independent of market conditions. This approach allows you to buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when they are high, gradually reducing your average cost per share over time. This method helps mitigate the emotional impact of market volatility, proving particularly beneficial for novice investors. By focusing on the long-term while minimizing the effects of short-term fluctuations, dollar-cost averaging can promote the growth of your wealth. To optimize dollar-cost averaging, consider setting up automatic contributions to your investment accounts. This ensures consistent investment practices and makes it easier to resist impulsive decisions based on market activity. 4-Regularly Rebalance Your Investments Over time, some of your investments may outperform others, resulting in your portfolio shifting away from its intended allocation. For example, if stocks exceed bonds in performance, your portfolio may become skewed toward equities. To maintain your desired risk profile, it is crucial to periodically rebalance your investments. Rebalancing involves selling portions of assets that have performed well and reinvesting the proceeds into underperforming assets, thus maintaining your risk tolerance and capturing growth opportunities in undervalued investments. Keeping your portfolio aligned with your long-term strategy fosters steady financial growth. Establish a rebalancing schedule that corresponds with your investment style and market conditions. Some investors may opt to rebalance annually, while others might prefer quarterly or semi-annual adjustments. Additionally, consider rebalancing in response to significant market changes or personal circumstances that impact your financial goals or risk appetite. 5- Review and Refine Your Strategy Long-term investing necessitates ongoing attention. Regularly reviewing your portfolio, monitoring performance, and adjusting your strategy according to shifts in your goals or market conditions can help keep your investments aligned with your objectives. Conducting yearly reviews or quarterly assessments enables you to stay on track and make informed decisions. Monitoring entails evaluating how your investments stack up against your goals and making adjustments when necessary. For instance, if there’s a substantial change in your risk tolerance due to major life events such as marriage or retirement, you may need to alter your asset allocation accordingly. Stay updated on market trends and economic indicators that may influence your investments. While it’s important to avoid overreacting to short-term market changes, being informed allows you to make educated decisions and adapt your strategy when the situation demands it. By adhering to these principles and embracing a long-term perspective, you can lay the groundwork for substantial wealth accumulation and financial independence in the future. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
SP:SPXEducation
by FOREXN1
11
The Hidden Risk of Complacency in TradingWhen markets show strong trends, especially bullish ones, it’s easy to feel reassured that prices will keep going up. This was what we saw in the gold market in October , where traders are confident and optimistic about continued upward movement. Yet this very confidence can mask a significant risk for traders: the risk of complacency. What is Complacency in Trading? In trading, complacency is the state where traders grow overly comfortable with the direction of the market, often assuming that current trends will continue. This mindset can lead to a relaxation of caution and due diligence, causing traders to overlook potential risks. Instead of evaluating trades with a fresh perspective, complacent traders may focus more on profit potential than on risk. Why Complacency Can Be Dangerous Complacency is particularly dangerous in trading because markets are unpredictable and often experience shifts just when traders feel the most comfortable. As the saying goes, “The market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.” When complacency takes hold, traders may enter positions without fully considering risks, increasing the potential for significant losses if a sudden reversal occurs. Take the gold market as an example... However, this positive sentiment could be a setup for a downside reversal. Traders who enter positions at elevated prices may find themselves exposed if the market corrects. The potential rewards for going long at these high levels may not be enough to offset the risks of a pullback. Recognizing Signs of Complacency To avoid falling into the trap of complacency, traders should look for certain behaviors, both in themselves and the market: Over-optimism in Market Sentiment: When traders broadly believe in an upward trend and are unwilling to consider downside risks, it’s often a warning sign. Entering Trades Without Proper Risk Assessment: If the main driver behind a trade is FOMO rather than sound analysis, there’s a chance complacency is at play. Ignoring Key Technical Signals: Complacent traders may disregard signals suggesting a potential reversal, like overbought indicators or failure to sustain new highs. How to Stay Vigilant Against Complacency Prioritize Risk Management: In every trade, evaluate risk first. A key to success is considering what could go wrong and setting stop-loss levels accordingly. Evaluate Reward-to-Risk Ratios: Before entering a position, assess if the potential reward justifies the risk. For instance, entering a long position in a bullish market may appear promising, but it’s vital to ensure that the entry point doesn’t carry excessive downside risk. Watch for Reversal Indicators: Look for technical indicators that might signal an impending reversal. Adopt a Patient, Wait-and-See Approach: When a market shows strong upward momentum, it’s often wise to hold back and look for better entry points rather than rushing in at a peak. Exercising patience can lead to far more rewarding opportunities. The Bottom Line Complacency can be the silent risk in trading, especially when markets show strong trends. By recognizing the dangers of complacency and implementing strategies to guard against it, traders can protect themselves from entering trades with unbalanced risk. Instead of getting swept up in bullish sentiment, stay grounded in a cautious, strategic approach that considers both potential gains and possible setbacks. In this way, you not only preserve your capital but also position yourself to capture more meaningful market moves in the long run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
7
I think I got this...but I'm going against the dollar at low low Asia Thursday and very little rest for the wicked. My attempt at doing something for a change different to trading and getting a life, I ended up mowing the back lawn. Betting here against the USD, I could feel the squeeeze for a bit of love for the EURO. I like this combo, unlike Gold they don't start betting against you, if you get direction right they may not give it to you straight away, but then ya see your account an hour or 2 later and they liked your work. Well that's what I tell myself. Theres less volume this time of day. Last night or yesterday daytime NY, as am in Australia, after sqeezing a bit of profit out of those tight-ars*s over at the Gold & Silver show, I went across and took about 5 long positions with the Japanese Indices, they were down about 1.7%, I saw that the chart was good to go long, the rubber-band trade which is my go-to, it was a pleasure to trade with them, I guess I was one of the first to turn the trade around for them and they appreciated that, but it was all the other hands coming in Long after me. I might make a video for a bit of a laugh.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Copper as a leading indicator for recessionToday, I was analyzing the charts, trying to determine whether a recession might be on the horizon, as the levels at which the U.S. indices are trading don’t seem sustainable to me at all. While scanning through various global indices— including the DAX, which I believe has already peaked —I also looked at copper as a leading indicator. This led me to the idea for this educational article. Using Copper Prices as a Leading Economic Indicator: A Guide to Spotting Recession Signals Copper, often called "Dr. Copper," is a valuable leading indicator in economic analysis due to its widespread use in various industries. Because copper is essential in construction, manufacturing, and electrical applications, its price is highly sensitive to economic conditions. By monitoring copper price trends, you can gain insights into future economic performance and potentially spot signs of an approaching recession. Here’s how to interpret and use copper prices as an early signal of economic health. 1. Why Copper is a Reliable Economic Indicator : Copper’s demand is closely linked to economic activity. In times of economic growth, the demand for copper rises, as it’s used in buildings, infrastructure, electronics, and automobiles. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, demand for copper falls, and prices usually decline as a result. Copper’s price trends are therefore often seen as a reliable barometer of economic health, sometimes predicting recessions before official economic data confirms it. This makes copper prices a useful tool for investors, businesses, and economists to anticipate changes in the economic cycle. 2. Tracking Copper Price Trends as Economic Signals : To use copper prices as a recession indicator, pay attention to both long-term and short-term price trends: Long-Term Trends: Sustained declines in copper prices may indicate weakening industrial demand, which can signal a broader economic slowdown. Short-Term Drops: A sharp drop over a shorter period might suggest that an economic contraction could be imminent, as industries are potentially scaling back production due to reduced demand. 3. Analyzing Copper Prices Alongside Other Economic Indicators : Copper prices on their own provide valuable insight, but they’re more powerful when considered alongside other economic indicators: Copper vs. GDP Growth: Copper prices often move in tandem with GDP growth. A consistent drop in copper prices can signal a slowdown in GDP, providing an early recession warning. Copper vs. Manufacturing Data: Manufacturing output and copper prices are highly correlated. When copper prices fall alongside declining manufacturing data, this suggests weakening demand across multiple sectors, reinforcing recessionary signals. Copper vs. Other Commodities: When copper prices drop while other commodities like gold rise (a safe-haven asset), it may highlight investors’ concerns about future economic health. A divergence in copper and gold prices can serve as an additional recession indicator. 4. Observing Copper’s Relationship with Bond Yields and Stock Markets Copper and Bond Yields: A simultaneous drop in copper prices and bond yields often reflects reduced growth expectations and lowered inflation forecasts, both of which can be early signals of economic contraction. Copper and Stock Markets: Copper price declines can also precede downturns in the stock market, especially in sectors like industrials and materials that rely heavily on strong economic activity. A falling copper price can thus foreshadow declines in stocks tied to economic growth. 5. Considering Global Influences on Copper Demand Copper’s demand is significantly influenced by global economic conditions, particularly in major economies like China, the largest consumer of copper worldwide: China’s Economic Health: Since China consumes a large portion of the world’s copper, changes in its economy directly impact copper prices. A slowdown in China’s economy could indicate lower global demand, often preceding a broader economic downturn. Supply Chain Factors: While copper prices largely reflect demand, they can also be influenced by supply chain disruptions, such as mining issues or trade restrictions. It’s important to distinguish these factors from demand-based price changes when interpreting copper’s economic signals. Practical Tips for Using Copper as a Recession Signal: Here are some actionable steps for using copper prices as an early warning of economic downturns: Establish Price Decline Thresholds: Significant declines in copper prices (e.g., 15-20% over a few months) have historically preceded recessions. Establishing such thresholds based on historical data can help signal potential slowdowns. Combine Copper with Other Indicators: Look at copper prices alongside yield curves, consumer confidence data, and manufacturing PMI. Copper price declines are often more reliable when they coincide with other recessionary indicators. Stay Updated on Market Reports: Monitoring industry reports, forecasts, and economic analyses regarding copper can provide insight into whether price changes are due to demand shifts or short-term supply issues. Conclusion: Copper prices act as a reliable economic gauge because they are so tightly linked to industrial activity. Sustained declines in copper prices often signal a reduction in demand, hinting at a possible economic downturn before other indicators confirm it. By observing copper prices in conjunction with other economic signals, investors, analysts, and businesses can better anticipate recessions and make informed decisions based on early economic insights. By integrating copper price trends into your economic analysis toolkit, you can gain a clearer picture of potential economic slowdowns, giving you an advantage in strategic planning and investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:COPPEREducation
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Navigating High Volatility Periods in TradingMarket volatility is a critical aspect of trading, and during certain periods—particularly around significant news events—this volatility becomes more pronounced. The graphic titled *"The Cycle of Market Volatility"* effectively captures the stages involved in how markets react and stabilize after major news events. These events, such as red folder news releases, economic reports, and elections, are pivotal moments that traders need to approach with both caution and strategy. The Cycle of Market Volatility 1. News Events Occur High-impact news, known as *red folder news*, includes economic data releases such as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), central bank interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and major political developments like elections. These events are known for triggering swift market movements and increased volatility. 2. Market Reaction Once the news breaks, markets tend to react swiftly. Prices may shoot up or down as traders digest the new information and position themselves accordingly. The initial reaction is often driven by the big institutional players, and retail traders are frequently caught up in the momentum. 3. Media Amplification After the initial market response, the media plays a significant role in amplifying the event. Analysts, news outlets, and social media start discussing the potential ramifications, which often leads to further market movement. Speculation and public sentiment can magnify the volatility. 4. Trader Response As traders react to both the news and the media coverage, there can be an increase in trading volumes. Some traders might attempt to capitalize on the price swings, while others might exit their positions to avoid losses. Emotions like fear and greed tend to dominate in this phase, making it essential for traders to stick to their strategies. 5. Market Stabilization Eventually, after the initial surge in price movement and emotional trading subsides, the market begins to stabilize. Once the news has been fully priced in and the dust settles, the markets may find equilibrium, and normal trading conditions resume—until the next major event. Trading During High Volatility: Pros and Cons Trading during high volatility events such as red folder news releases and elections can be both rewarding and dangerous. Let's explore some of the **pros and cons** of trading during these periods: Pros Large Profit Opportunities Volatility creates sharp price movements, and for traders who can accurately predict market direction, these swings can translate into significant profits in a short period. For example, interest rate announcements or jobs data releases can cause currencies to move hundreds of pips in minutes. Increased Liquidity High-impact events often bring more participants into the market, leading to increased liquidity. This means trades can be executed more quickly, and spreads (the difference between bid and ask prices) may narrow, offering better trading conditions for short-term traders. Clear Trends Often after a red folder event, markets establish clearer trends. Whether it’s a sharp bullish or bearish move, traders may find it easier to follow the trend and capitalize on the momentum rather than dealing with the choppier markets typically seen in low-volatility periods. Cons Whipsaw Risk One of the biggest dangers of trading during high volatility is the potential for whipsaw movements. The market may initially react one way, only to reverse sharply after further analysis or new information comes to light. This can lead to traders being stopped out or suffering losses as prices swing unpredictably. Wider Spreads While liquidity can increase, the initial reaction to major news can cause spreads to widen dramatically. This can eat into potential profits and make it difficult for traders to enter or exit positions at favorable prices. Emotional Trading News events tend to stir up emotions in traders—especially fear and greed. These emotions can cloud judgment, causing traders to deviate from their trading plans, make impulsive decisions, or over-leverage themselves in pursuit of quick gains. Gaps in the Market High-impact news can cause gaps in the market, where price jumps from one level to another without trading in between. This can be hazardous for traders who are in open positions, as stop-loss orders may not be filled at the expected price, leading to larger losses than anticipated. Key Red Folder Events and How to Approach Them Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Perhaps the most influential news events, interest rate decisions by central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank can cause massive volatility in Forex markets. Traders need to watch not just the decision itself but also the accompanying statements and guidance for future monetary policy. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Released monthly, the U.S. NFP report often leads to sharp movements in the USD and related currency pairs. The NFP provides insights into the health of the U.S. economy and is closely watched by traders around the world. Elections and Political Events Elections, referendums, and major geopolitical developments (such as US elections last week) can cause sustained volatility in markets. Traders should be particularly cautious around these events as outcomes can be highly unpredictable, and market reactions may be extreme. Inflation Reports Inflation data can significantly impact market expectations for interest rates, which in turn influences currency values. Central banks tend to adjust their monetary policy based on inflation trends, making these reports crucial for traders. How to Trade Volatile Events Safely Have a Clear Plan Don’t enter trades during volatile periods without a well-thought-out strategy. Make sure to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels and be prepared for sudden market reversals. Consider Waiting for the Dust to Settle Instead of trading the immediate market reaction, some traders prefer to wait until the news has been fully digested. By waiting for clearer trends to form after the event, traders can reduce their risk of getting caught in whipsaw price movements. Practice Proper Risk Management With greater volatility comes greater risk, so it’s crucial to limit your exposure. Reduce your position sizes and avoid over-leveraging during these times. Risk management is vital to surviving and thriving in high-volatility environments. Stay Informed Understanding the context behind major news events is critical. Following economic calendars, staying updated on geopolitical developments, and listening to expert analysis can help traders navigate high-volatility markets more effectively. Conclusion Trading during high volatility periods can present both opportunities and risks. While the potential for quick profits is tempting, the unpredictability of the markets during these times requires discipline, a solid strategy, and strong risk management. Understanding the *Cycle of Market Volatility* can help traders better anticipate how markets react to red folder news and major events, allowing them to make more informed trading decisions.
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
It was a double-top system forcing price down. Bitcoin powers on It looked a bit gloomy yesterday Tuesday for Bitcoin, but really all that occurred was Bitcoin wound up in a couple of double tops, if you call that price weakness, I don't think so they happen so frequently and there are traders who only trade double-tops, double-bottoms - the tradable patterns they form are called M-Tops and W-Bottoms. BTCUSD is cruising as not a lot buying but it looks like buyers would move in once it crosses past the Top3 on the 15m. Here are some pictures: 30m chart below & VWAP bands.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Intraday the Aussie might lift but beating USD% D, W, TF? No On Friday AUDUSD looked to me a very strong case for long positions, at least going forwards a few days to a week. I took the trade Long, knowing the USD$ was strong, because that's what the charts were telling me on Friday, but today it's a difference story. The Aussie likely to get a small bounce now and further selling to then take hold later in Tuesday. But that has all changed with the Gold price selling off yesterday Monday, Gold selling and correcting in a bigger manner puts the US Dollar in a position of strength. Yesterday, I wrote how the US Dollar broke out with Bitcoin last week. But at some point, very soon I imagine, the USD$ will not be able to outperform and be in alignment with Bitcoin's continued outbreak upwards. But stranger things have happened, for now the USD$ is back and showing its strength against other currency's.
Short
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Gold Intraday Tues.12NOV.24: Price struggling to bounce on 1HRThe Gold price downward move is taking a breather. But I see that a recent 1HR bounce on the RSI did not gain any momentum from the bulls. The 4HR chart is also stalling re the same. 2 charts from 1 link are enclosed and attached. So any significant move up by Gold on the 4HR chart (left) I would be watching the 200EMA which coincides with an important Fib level to see if price gets rejected, which I would expect to occur. But I don't think price will bounce that far up. In other words, a further move down is more likely. We see on the Daily chart that price is now just under the 50EMA, so Gold-bears are moving on this, but we have an even greater bearish view of Gold once price moves under the 200EMA, which is really not that far down from current price (right of screen). Thanks for reading. Monitor closely any Short-trading in Gold with stop losses, as sentiment can quickly change bullish, especially on economic news generally at the start of the NY session, but also remember that Bitcoin is not the only one in a bull-market, the same can be said that Gold continues in a Bull-market-run and what we are witnessing is a healthy correction, where price temporarily falls, for example from 2 days to 2 months. This is why price can easily bust to the upside again 'at the drop of a hat', because that is the path of least resistance.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
Text book bullish W-Bottom on weekly. Huge gains here. USDDKK and a Weekly chart Double-bottom which has just passed through the neckline. Look for a retrace back to neckline. On USD strength at the moment, this is sure to climb during trading today and the next several weeks. Massive RR. Thx Chris. Stupid-bloody software. Ignore the chart above. I tried to delete and overwrite but this damn software that some of us spend so much time is simply bs. Here is a 5m chart showing the breakout and a retest back on the neckline which is the red-dotted line. It may conduct a retest again or look for a fib retracement or a good ol' market order at these low levels. Be aware that Double bottom breakouts even over and beyond neckline, often retrace in a big way back underneath the neckline to push traders patience and take stops. Then price breaks out again. I can't see the above happening because this is a weekly chart firstly, plus the USD is too strong in momentum currently. Your're welcome:)
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
USDZAR moving up fast & breaking out with USD strength I mentioned in a publication today during the Asia session about how I see the continuation of the US-Dollar to continue to power and move through 106 soon like a knife through melting butter. This is a big reclaim its making on the Poland currency. I bought in recently as it crossed the 200EMA on the daily. The weekly chart price is powering up a double-top. It will break through this level, USD is gaining so much momentum and it looks to remain that way for the foreseeable future in my opinion. Gold under so much pressure despite still in a bull-run, lower prices to ensue this week for Gold. Cryptocurrency and the USD$ to power on. DYOR. These are solely my opinions. I formulate these ideas from charts and price history. I pick a direction. Last Friday I publicly announced here on TV that Gold and Silver would slide in a bigger way this week. It's happening and it will continue to happen because as I mention above, the USD$ is continuing its breakout over 106 soon. Cheers, Chris Daily chart below:
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
USDPLN moves up on 4.10 & further breakout past 4.12 I took this trade Long a few moments ago. I thought whether I was getting into the trade a bit late, but I opened the Daily and Weekly charts to see that this is moving fast on the RSI momentum and its chasing 4.12 a previous key record high, which beyond breaking should launch this combo even further. This is a pair that tends to rally hard and fast, there is a bit of a buy spread usually but it moves fast to break even on the spread.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
AUDJPY Short: for educational purposes only. W & 4HR chart If we look at last weeks WEEKLY CANDLE, well it can only be described as a bearish pin-bar but that is my subjective view, plus this weeks WEEKLY candle is starting to form the same way. Ie. as a pin-bar candle bearish. I am seeing momentum on all intraday charts to downside right up to the important weekly chart. Standby, I will enter the trade very soon if I see a good opportunity to Short without being manipulated by the market makers. IE. They will immediately take the other side betting against me. Standby
Short
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
OMG DOGEUSD is up over 25% again. Clearly undervalued. I got in mostly around 0.16cents, I will disclose also, it's one of my biggest holdings. DOGEUSD is hammering upwards in price again today. Don't write it off due to its comical naming, because it's chart structure is very defined, very bullish and it's a very tidy, organised chart. What you see is what you get. The chart is all I really go by, they could be selling hotdogs and it wouldn't matter, this is going way past $1 VERY SOON. It's one the biggest star breakout performers since Bitcoin recently climbed and broke out beyond 75k.
EIGHTCAP:DOGEUSDLong
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
1