BTCUSD Defying a further pullback. Too bullish at Mid 75k
Bitcoin BTCUSD took a normal day of retracement in earlier trading (Asian & Europe Session), but it's recently made a move upwards, which prompted me to check the intraday charts and it looks like the climb will continue today. Mainly on momentum the past couple of days and of course there is that break of the March high, which reminds the pullback earlier today was probably to test this break of a previous high by new price.
Educationalposts
Understanding Trading Leverage and Margin.When you first dive into trading, you’ll often hear about leverage and margin . These two concepts are powerful tools that can amplify your profits, but they also come with significant risks. The image you've provided lays out the essentials of leverage and margin: Leverage allows traders to control larger positions, Margin acts as a security deposit, Profit Amplification boosts potential gains, and Risk Amplification warns of increased losses.
In this article, we’ll break down these terms and explore how leverage and margin work, their advantages and risks, and what to consider before using them in your trading strategy.
What is Leverage in Trading?
Leverage is essentially a loan provided by your broker that allows you to open larger trading positions than your actual account balance would otherwise allow. It’s a tool that can multiply the value of your capital, giving you the potential to make more money from market movements without needing to invest large sums of your own money.
Think of leverage as “financial assistance.” With leverage, even a small amount of capital can control a larger position in the market. This can lead to amplified profits if the trade goes your way. However, it’s a double-edged sword; leverage can also lead to amplified losses if the trade moves against you.
Example of Trading with Leverage
Suppose you have €100 in your trading account and your broker offers a leverage of 1:5. This means you can control a position worth €500 with your €100 investment. If the market moves in your favor, your profits will be calculated based on the €500 position, not just the €100 you originally invested. However, if the market moves against you, your losses will also be based on the larger amount.
What is Margin in Trading?
Margin is the amount of money you must set aside as collateral to open a leveraged trade. When you use leverage, the broker requires a deposit to cover potential losses—this is called margin. Margin essentially acts as a security deposit, ensuring that you can cover losses if the trade doesn’t go as planned.
Margin is usually expressed as a percentage of the total trade size. For example, if a broker requires a 5% margin to open a position, and you want to open a €1,000 trade, you would need to deposit €50 as margin.
How Does Margin Work?
Margin works together with leverage. The margin required depends on the leverage ratio offered by the broker. For instance, with a 1:10 leverage, you’d only need a 10% margin to open a position, while a 1:20 leverage would require a 5% margin.
If the market moves against your position significantly, your margin level can drop. If it falls too low, the broker may issue a **margin call**, requesting additional funds to maintain the trade. If you don’t add funds, the broker might close your position to prevent further losses, which could lead to a loss of the initial margin amount.
How Does Leveraged Trading Work?
Leveraged trading involves borrowing capital from the broker to increase the size of your trades. This allows you to open larger positions and potentially gain higher profits from favorable market movements.
Here’s a simplified process of how it works:
1. Deposit Margin: You set aside a portion of your own funds (margin) as a security deposit.
2. Leverage Ratio Applied: The broker provides you with additional capital based on the leverage ratio, increasing your trading power.
3. Open Larger Positions: You can now open larger trades than you could with just your capital.
4. Profit or Loss Magnified: Any profit or loss from the trade is amplified, as it’s based on the larger position rather than just your initial capital.
While leverage doesn’t change the direction of your trades, it affects how much you gain or lose on each trade. That’s why it’s essential to understand both the potential for profit amplification and the risk amplification that leverage brings.
The Benefits and Risks of Using Leverage
Benefits of Leverage
- Profit Amplification: With leverage, you can control larger trades, which means any favorable movement in the market can lead to greater profits.
- Capital Efficiency: Leverage allows you to gain exposure to the markets without needing to invest a large amount of your own money upfront.
- Flexibility in Trading: Leveraged trading gives traders more flexibility to diversify their positions and take advantage of multiple opportunities in the market.
Risks of Leverage
- Risk Amplification: Just as leverage can amplify profits, it also amplifies losses. If a trade moves against you, your losses can be substantial, even exceeding your initial investment.
- Margin Calls: If the market moves significantly against your leveraged position, you may face a margin call, requiring you to add more funds to your account to keep the position open.
- Rapid Account Depletion: High leverage means that small market moves can have a big impact on your account. Without careful management, you could deplete your account balance quickly.
Important Considerations for Leveraged Trading
1. Understand the Leverage Ratio: Different brokers offer various leverage ratios, such as 1:5, 1:10, or even 1:100. Choose a leverage ratio that aligns with your risk tolerance. Higher leverage ratios mean higher potential profits but also higher potential losses.
2. Know Your Margin Requirements: Always be aware of the margin requirements for your trades. Brokers may close your positions if your margin level drops too low, so it’s essential to monitor your margin balance regularly.
3. Risk Management is Key: Use risk management strategies like stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on each trade. Don’t risk more than a small percentage of your account balance on any single trade.
4. Avoid Overleveraging: One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is using too much leverage. Start with a lower leverage ratio until you’re more comfortable with the risks involved in leveraged trading.
5. Only Use Leverage if You Understand It: Leveraged trading is suitable primarily for experienced investors who understand the market and the risks involved. If you’re new to trading, practice with a demo account to learn how leverage works before applying it in a live account.
Final Considerations
Leverage and margin are powerful tools in trading that can amplify profits, but they come with considerable risk. Using leverage wisely and understanding margin requirements are essential to avoid unnecessary losses and protect your account. While the prospect of profit amplification is attractive, traders should always remember that leveraged trading is a double-edged sword—it can lead to significant gains, but it can also result in rapid account depletion if not managed carefully.
To summarize:
- Leverage allows you to control larger trades with a small investment, multiplying both potential profits and potential losses.
- Margin is the deposit required to open a leveraged trade and acts as a security against potential losses.
- Use leverage responsibly and only after understanding the risks involved.
Leverage can be a valuable tool in trading if used wisely, so make sure to educate yourself, practice with a demo account, and always approach leveraged trading with caution.
BTCUSD Now +73,000 pumping so hard to take March high today
Bitcoin has absolutely exploded with upside movement during the last couple of sessions, even yesterday during New York trading, Cryptocurrency had a smashing day and I did not even have to look at the charts to understand that Bitcoin BTCUSD was on its way to take the March High.
Well if you don't own any Cryptocurrency, for educational purposes only, it's always a good idea to buy Bitcoin or stock/currency BEFORE the breakout, when price will go up very fast in line with how much Bitcoin is breaking out.
My next profit target for BTCUSD is not 120,000 which is where I think it will make very quickly after it explodes upwards in price following the break above the Huge CUP pattern on the Weekly chart. BTCUSD price is at time of writing is 73,150 approximately.
Prior to Cryptocurrency prices going into a frenzy following such a breakout, some other Crypto names that are solid and safe performers are DOGEUSD, TRXUSD, SOL & of course BTCUSD the number 1.
GOLD OUTLOOK Gold a safe heaven as we have taken bunch of profits today as it was our lucky day now as we see all day activity gold price remained very choppy price didn't broke above 2748 price level of resistance also didn't broke below 2731 price level of support as price has formed immediate resistance level of 2746-48
Now we again predict a fall in price as from H4 to H1 we can observe price is in a bearish momentum although price is showing some bearish signs over Daily Time frame but still price is in a bullish trend daily as we haven't observed any CHOCH on daily TF
GEOPOLITICS
As Geopolitics is concerned tight situation between iran and israel has loosen up to some extent of some tension increases we can see a bull run over price
US ELECTIONs
As far as today's big news is concerned gold is under effect of US Congress elections and what we have observed today is election effect tomorrow at 6th we can see any predictable price movment till now we are bearish over gold as price is all sideways
AUDCAD about to Pop to the upside.
Another setup I like mostly from this Daily chart. Price recently decoupling from a falling-wedge and moving briefly to a nearby liquidity zone and then shaping up to move upwards.
Trade has plenty of upwards momentum and should be a good riser commencing very soon.
I have bought at current levels around 0.9195 and SL at 0.9184, quite tight.
For educational purposes on tradingview only.
NZDCAD Long: Another solid setup on Daily
NZDCAD was a trade I took long about 8 hours ago.
In the old days, when I would break every trading rule and chase the market, I would've done that this morning, but then I realised price is going to pull back for my entry after I analyse it's chart for at least 10 minutes.
It has recently pulled back to about a 50% Fib retracement,
Mastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading ProfitabilityMastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading Profitability
In the world of trading, achieving success isn't merely about selecting the right stocks or making spot-on predictions. True profitability lies in managing risk effectively, a skill that can be the difference between sustained growth and heavy losses. A primary tool for this is the risk/reward ratio—a fundamental element in a trader’s toolkit. This metric helps traders maintain discipline and clarity, ensuring each trade has a strong potential for profit while keeping possible losses in check.
Whether you’re new to trading or have years of experience, understanding and using the risk/reward ratio can transform your approach. It’s not about maximizing the number of wins but ensuring that the rewards consistently outweigh the risks. Here, we’ll explore how this ratio impacts trading strategy and why it’s critical for long-term success.
Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio
The risk/reward ratio is a straightforward formula that compares the profit potential of a trade to its possible loss. Essentially, it answers the question: How much can I gain for every dollar I risk?
For example, if you're willing to risk $100 for a possible $300 gain, your risk/reward ratio is 1:3, meaning you could make $3 for every $1 at risk.
Example of a 1:3 risk-reward ratio in EUR/USD
This concept encourages traders to evaluate the potential downside of a trade before jumping in, moving away from focusing solely on potential gains. By keeping a balanced view of risk and reward, traders can avoid seemingly attractive trades that may carry excessive risk, enabling them to approach the market with a disciplined, long-term mindset.
Why Risk/Reward Matters
Every trade involves risk, and the ability to manage it effectively often differentiates successful traders from those who struggle. Using the risk/reward ratio ensures that each trade is structured with a clear plan, protecting capital while allowing for potential profits. Without this focus on risk, traders may chase high returns without properly assessing the downside, leading to costly mistakes.
Combined with tools like stop-loss orders and position sizing, the risk/reward ratio becomes part of a broader risk management strategy. These components work together to balance profit potential with loss control, which is essential for traders aiming to sustain profitability over time.
Here you can find a comprehensive article on stop-loss strategies.
Risk/Reward Ratio vs. Win Rate
A common misconception among novice traders is that trading success depends on winning more trades than losing ones. Experienced traders know that profitability has more to do with how risk is managed in losses than how many wins you achieve. The risk/reward ratio addresses this, making it possible to be profitable even if a trader wins less than half of their trades, as long as the wins are substantial enough to offset the losses.
For example, if a trader wins only 40% of the time but maintains a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, the profits from winning trades can cover losses from losing trades while still yielding an overall profit.
Here is a comprehensive table comparing risk/reward ratios to win rate profitability.
Advantages of a Disciplined Risk/Reward Approach
One of the most valuable benefits of using the risk/reward ratio is the structure it brings to trading. It helps traders stay rational and minimizes emotionally driven decisions, such as holding onto losing positions with the hope of a reversal. By maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio, traders enter each trade with a defined plan, reducing the chance of impulsive, loss-heavy decisions.
Furthermore, applying a risk/reward framework ensures that trades are entered only when the reward justifies the risk. Over time, this disciplined approach fosters consistency and sets the stage for more predictable results.
Steps to Calculate Risk/Reward Ratio
Calculating the risk/reward ratio is a simple yet impactful process that enhances trade planning. Here’s a step-by-step guide:
1- Determine Your Risk: Define the amount you’re willing to lose if the trade moves against you, which is the difference between your entry price and stop-loss level.
2- Define Your Reward: Establish the potential profit if the trade goes in your favor, measured from the entry price to your target profit level.
3- Calculate the Ratio: Divide the potential reward by the potential risk to get your risk/reward ratio.
For instance, if you’re buying a stock at $100 with a stop-loss at $95, your risk is $5. If you aim to sell at $115, your reward is $15, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio.
Choosing an Ideal Risk/Reward Ratio
The ideal risk/reward ratio can vary based on trading style and goals, though many traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3. Higher ratios like 1:3 allow for a more forgiving approach to losses, where a trader doesn’t need a high win rate to be profitable. However, shorter-term traders might use lower ratios (e.g., 1:1.5) while aiming for a higher win rate to balance profitability.
Ultimately, the best ratio depends on factors like trading frequency, volatility, and risk tolerance. Day traders may prefer a 1:2 ratio, allowing for quicker exits with decent returns. Swing traders, on the other hand, might look for a 1:3 ratio or higher to justify holding positions longer despite potential market fluctuations.
Managing Risk with the Right Tools
Achieving long-term profitability requires more than just a favorable risk/reward ratio; it also demands effective risk management. Stop-loss orders, for instance, are invaluable for capping potential losses. Placing stops at logical price points, such as below support levels or above resistance levels, helps protect positions without risking premature exits.
Similarly, maintaining discipline by skipping trades that don’t meet your risk/reward criteria can prevent excessive losses. Proper position sizing and a detailed trading plan round out this approach, ensuring that each trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance.
Here is a comprehensive guide about the Risk Management
Final Thoughts: The Power of the Risk/Reward Ratio in Trading
The risk/reward ratio is more than a calculation—it’s a mindset that can lead to stronger, more disciplined trading decisions. By assessing potential risks and rewards before each trade, you can avoid impulsive choices and safeguard your capital. This approach brings clarity and control to trading, even amid market unpredictability.
While the risk/reward ratio may be a straightforward tool, its impact is profound. Focusing on balancing risk with reward enables traders to protect themselves from major losses while pursuing worthwhile gains. The next time you plan a trade, remember to ask: “Does this meet my risk/reward criteria?” If not, stepping back could be the wisest move.
Risk management is essential for lasting success, and the risk/reward ratio serves as a constant guide. Consistently applying this ratio fosters discipline, confidence, and, ultimately, greater profitability in your trading journey.
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Strong Bullish Chart Structure: TRON TRXUSD: Sets up
This is a Cryptocurrency that always reminds me of DOGEUSD because they share a similar price at around 0.16 cents, the difference is that this one TRXUSD is positioned very strongly in terms of its price.
The setup here is the 4HR chart. You will see about 6 times that price action has drawn together with the 200EMA just before price rally's in Long positions.
You will see in the 4hR CHART how Tron is meeting with the 200EMA very soon, once again, I doubt it quite makes the joining with 200EMA because its price is going to take off very soon, northwards/longwards.
The thicker WHITE-LINE in chart is the 200EMA
BPCL 240 MINS MY VIEW The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
Thanks for your support
Tradelikemee Academy
Saanjayy KG
APOLLOHOSPITAL 240 MINS TIME FRAME - MY VIEW ONLYThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
Thanks for your support
Tradelikemee Academy
Saanjayy KG
Bitcoin's Squeeze in price is building momentum upwards
I hope you are well this Sunday.
If you have been following my Bitcoin thread this weekend, you will know that price has further to fall, if the Bitcoin market is to tank downwards. What I am saying is that we are in a squeeze moving price down and up which contracts price and causes the squeeze effect, which quite frankly is needed in circumstances where volumes are again low this weekend.
But this squeeze is building momentum in the Bitcoin tank.
Bitcoin price has recently tested the level just under 69000 which is a big support level. Unfortunately some Stop Losses would've been triggered and price has taken the liquidity and moved higher. I never like to promote a stop loss level to someone, but I think it's reckless if I do not in circumstances where price tanks.
Please take a look at a recently Daily Chart of Bitcoin. I present Fib Levels & Fib EMA's 8,13,21,55. Both are supportive of price to move higher from current levels. 69,000 and thereabouts is the support zone and I think this level will hold.
Be an expert at losing..Trading is a complex venture that involves understanding financial instruments, charts, patterns, market conditions, risk management and other factors.
Becoming a successful trader requires more than technical knowledge. You also need to develop the right mindset to navigate the psychological intricacies of trading.
Human emotion, instinct, and behavior can profoundly impact your decision-making process. That’s why it’s important to understand trading psychology.
~ OGwavetrader
Falls in price deceive. Bitcoin's Daily Chart is Demand-driven!
I know Bitcoin sold off really quickly about 48 hours ago trying to reach higher highs and resistance. Price also made no further attempts to retest the breakout high price, but not yet.
Daily chart is attached. It looks indicative of higher prices to my eyes, but we only see what we see. If I am missing something more bearish please write in the comments. It's a learning curve for us all.
Quickly my reasons, Bitcoin switched to a Demand-channel in recent months, you know higher highs and higher lows, now recently Bitcoin price has remained in the upper part of channel, for me that is a bullish sign. Check the chart. Thanks for reading.
Gold Out LookPreviously from few weeks we were bullish over gold and still if we follow the major trend from monthly to weekly to Daily we are still bullish over the pair but from last week the pair has shown us a new ATH and done a retracment downwards now its has reached between 23.8 to 38.2 retracment level now as the price action is followed it will follow the bear trend from 4H to 1H to lower time frames and go towards price level of 2716 and then if bears will push it more down and price breaks the support level on 2716 it will be seen in 2698 level of support which is 50% of fibbonaci retracement level and then we can a see a upward rally
GEOPOLITICAL Factor
As we have seen earlier Iran and Israel Tension was on Peak and Investors tried to Invest in Safe heaven and the safe heaven performed well now the tension is weaken a little so that price is going down if some tension increases we will see a Rise in price
AMERICAN Elections
American elections are right on the edge and price 5th November is a crucial date and the coming week will be a busy week for safe heaven banks and big player so we will be watching price closely if we observe any bullish price action pattern we will be buying safe heaven otherwise we will enjoy the bearish move
fingers crossed next week will be very busy and crucial for the future of Bulls and bears
Transitioning from Successful Demo Trading to Live TradingHow to Avoid Choking Your Live Account
The journey from demo trading to live trading is often more challenging than most traders anticipate. The image you’ve shared captures the key steps of this transition—from mastering a demo account to navigating the psychological hurdles of live trading. While demo trading is an essential part of a trader’s education, live trading introduces emotional and psychological challenges that many traders find difficult to manage. Let’s dive into the key stages and explore how to transition successfully without choking your live account.
1. Successful Demo Trading
At the start, many traders achieve consistent results in demo trading. In a demo environment, there’s no real money at stake, which allows for calm, calculated decisions and plenty of room for mistakes. It’s here that you develop and fine-tune your strategy without the fear of financial loss. However, the ease of success in a demo account can create a false sense of security about your readiness for live trading.
2. Transition to Live Trading
Moving from demo to live trading is a crucial moment. Many traders believe that because they are profitable in demo trading, they are automatically ready to replicate that success in a live account. However, the difference between the two is the introduction of real money and real emotions. The fear of loss and the pressure to protect your capital can interfere with the clear thinking that guided you in the demo environment.
3. Overthinking Begins
In live trading, overthinking is a common problem that often creeps in early. Unlike demo trading, where decisions flow effortlessly, live trading introduces hesitation. Traders tend to question their strategies, second-guess their analysis, and get caught up in minute details that don’t necessarily matter. The fear of making a wrong decision becomes amplified when real money is on the line, often causing traders to overanalyze market movements.
4. Paralysis by Analysis
As overthinking intensifies, traders can fall into what is known as paralysis by analysis. This happens when you analyze the market so extensively that you become too hesitant to make any trading decisions. Constantly doubting your entry points, second-guessing signals, or being afraid of missing out can lead to missed opportunities and a lack of trading action. At this stage, fear dominates logic, and traders may either overtrade or avoid trading altogether.
5. Trading Failure
Inevitably, if you allow overthinking and paralysis to take control, it can lead to trading failure. This failure isn’t necessarily about blowing your account—it’s about failing to follow your trading plan, succumbing to emotional decisions, and deviating from the strategy that made you successful in demo trading. Fear of losing, coupled with poor decision-making, can lead to a downward spiral.
6. Need for Strategy
When traders hit a rough patch, they realize the importance of sticking to a well-defined strategy. A consistent strategy should not only outline entry and exit points but also incorporate risk management, stop-loss placement, and clear goals. At this stage, traders must revisit their demo strategies and adapt them to the emotional reality of live trading. Importantly, the need for strategy isn’t just about the technical side—it’s about managing emotions and sticking to the plan under pressure.
7. Implementing Strategies
Having a solid strategy is one thing, but implementing it consistently in live trading is a different challenge. This stage is where traders must learn to trust their strategy, let go of the fear of losses, and maintain emotional discipline. It’s crucial to trade small positions at the beginning to minimize the emotional impact of any losses. Gradually scaling up as confidence grows allows for emotional adjustment without the added pressure of large financial risk.
8. Successful Live Trading
The final stage is successful live trading, where traders have mastered not just the technical aspects of their strategy but the emotional and psychological elements as well. Success in live trading is marked by consistent execution of a plan, disciplined risk management, and the ability to stay calm during market fluctuations. At this point, you’ve learned to manage your emotions, handle losses gracefully, and take profits when the time is right.
Tips to Avoid Choking Your Live Account
Start Small: When transitioning from demo to live trading, start with a small account. Even if you’re profitable in demo trading, your psychological state will change when real money is at stake. Trade with smaller positions until you feel comfortable managing your emotions in a live setting.
Have a Trading Plan: Stick to the same strategies that worked in your demo account. A well-defined trading plan will give you clear guidelines to follow, even when emotions run high. Make sure your plan includes risk management and contingency plans for when trades don’t go your way.
Control Emotions: Live trading introduces a range of emotions—fear, greed, anxiety, and excitement. The key to success is emotional discipline. Set your stop losses and take profits before entering a trade and avoid changing your plan mid-trade based on emotion.
Risk Management: Risking too much on a single trade is one of the fastest ways to lose your live account. Never risk more than 1-2% of your total account balance on any trade. This will help you stay calm and reduce the emotional pressure to win every trade.
Accept Losses: Losing trades are part of the game. Even professional traders have losing trades, but they manage those losses with proper risk management and emotional control. Accept that losses are a part of trading and avoid chasing the market or trying to win back losses impulsively.
Regular Reflection: After each trading session, take time to reflect on your trades. What went well? What could have been improved? This reflection will help you adjust and improve your strategy over time.
Conclusion
Transitioning from demo trading to live trading is more about managing emotions than it is about mastering the technical aspects of trading. While the technical skills you develop in demo trading are essential, emotional discipline is what separates successful live traders from those who struggle. By starting small, sticking to your strategy, and managing your risk, you can avoid choking your live account and set yourself up for long-term success in the markets.
Bitcoin Daily Chart -Indicates selling, it needs to rocket soon
Bitcoin BTCUSD since arriving back up at the triple-top high zone and it would seem is preparing to launch a breakout of its price to all new higher-highs and higher lows, but perhaps Bitcoin's consolidation and a lack of higher prices the past couple of days this week, is starting to make BTCUSD look a bit weaker for a Short opportunity.
No I don't think the Bitcoin price is going down with a huge sell margin, no price is simply in the 'squeeze' right now and we will see a gradual downward drift in price as consolidating price action occurs, and to a key support level or demand block, buyers will step-in at reduced Bitcoin prices and they will take advantage of a price that Bitcoin is likely to never revisit ever again.
Gold looks shaky for a short
Gold will tumble on a breach of the triangle its currently situated. Here is the trend line in red.
The Gold Price for the past 2 hours has been stationary much of the time at the bottom of a 1 hour triangle. Waiting to be shorted and trapped down lower. Will you join me? There was very recently a 1 to 3m chart head n shoulders pattern so price was on the move upwards and around 2733 now.
For educational purposes as trading can be risky.
The chart has details of a stop loss and 2 profit targets for the Short. Idea is to short Gold with a waiting Limit order at 2735.
Now, if you find that price gets close to 2735 but does not trigger your order, then that will mean that price is heading lower and they don't want you getting liquidity to sell your order and possibly profit from the short. That is when you sell on Market near 2735 or just below.
Stop Loss is 2739.39 (tight) or for a wider but less Reward, place stop at 2744.78, a fair bit of room. I did that because the gold price does retrace and move around a bit pre New York.
2713.76 is TP1 and TP2 is 2682.62 or take profits when and where you feel comfortable.
DOGEUSD very bullish to break out with Bitcoin.
DOGEUSD is a Crypto that I have accrued. I recently sold out and then I got back into Doge-long because I could see how it was traversing in a similar way to BTCUSD in its price.
It has been moving up a lot lately but it's only 0.1698. Pull up a daily or weekly chart and you will soon realise how structure-strong it's charting looks and you start to realise that it will breakout with BTCUSD but with more upside I believe.
If you prefer TRON TRXUSD, its price and charting is a bit like DOGE but Tron's price is at the top of the chart and its also destined to break out with BTCUSD.
Here are some charts.
DOGEUSD DAILY: Bullish Structure
BULLISH TRON DAILY below:
Gold Trading- How to Avoid false breaks- 3 simple tipsIf you’ve been trading long enough, you know the rush of seeing a big bullish breakout. Those massive green candles make it tempting to jump in immediately, fearing you might miss the move. But if you’ve experienced a few of these moves reversing sharply, you also know the sting of buying at the top.
False breakouts—when price appears to break out but quickly reverses—can be frustrating. You can’t avoid them entirely, but using a few smart strategies can help reduce the risk of getting caught on the wrong side of a trade. Let’s dive into key strategies for breakout trading, including buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend.
1. Don’t “Chase” the Markets
When the market suddenly surges higher with multiple big bullish candles, the temptation to enter is strong. This move can make it feel like you’ll miss out if you don’t buy immediately. But in most cases, strong moves like this mean the market is likely due for a pullback. In an uptrend, these fast, high candles can often reverse or slow down, leaving those who bought at the high with losses.
Pro Tip: If you spot three or more large bullish candles in a row, it’s usually too late to enter. Waiting for a pullback (which we’ll discuss soon) is often the safer approach.
2. Trade with the Trend: Buy Dips in an Uptrend and Sell Rallies in a Downtrend
One of the most effective strategies for avoiding false breakouts is trading with the trend. Here’s the basic principle:
In an Uptrend: Buy dips. When the market is trending upward, buying during short-term pullbacks is often a better strategy than buying during strong rallies. This approach allows you to get in at a lower price, reducing the risk of buying at the high.
Example: Suppose the market is moving steadily upward but experiences brief pullbacks to a support level. This is an ideal opportunity to buy, as it aligns with the trend's direction without chasing after a breakout that could reverse.
In a Downtrend: Sell rallies. During a downtrend, the market will often move lower, but with periodic upswings. These rallies are temporary and typically followed by further downward moves. Selling during these rallies can help you align with the downtrend while avoiding the risk of a sudden reversal.
This buy-dip, sell-rally strategy aligns your trades with the overall market direction, minimizing the chances of getting caught in short-lived breakouts.
3. Look for a Buildup Before Entering a Breakout Trade
One key strategy to avoid false breakouts is waiting for a buildup near a key resistance or support level. A buildup is a tight consolidation (or a “squeeze”) pattern that suggests the market is coiling up energy to make a sustained move in one direction. Here’s how it helps:
Buildup at Resistance: If an uptrend is approaching a resistance level, a buildup (narrow price range) near that level often indicates strong buying pressure. It suggests that sellers are struggling to push prices lower, increasing the likelihood of a successful breakout above resistance.
Stop Loss Placement: If the price breaks out from a buildup, you can use the low of the buildup as a stop-loss point. This gives you a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio because if the breakout is genuine, it’s unlikely to fall below the buildup low.
Pro Tip: Patience is key. Wait for the buildup pattern to appear near resistance in an uptrend or support in a downtrend before taking a breakout trade. This approach is particularly useful when combined with buying dips in an uptrend or selling rallies in a downtrend.
Very recent example (yesterday):
Summary:
Strategies for Breakout Trading and Trend Alignment
To avoid getting caught in false breakouts, follow these steps:
- Don’t chase big moves after three or more bullish or bearish candles.
- Align with the trend by buying dips in uptrends and selling rallies in downtrends.
- Use buildup patterns to time your entries, placing stop losses below the buildup for better risk management.
By focusing on trend alignment, buildup patterns, and avoiding the urge to chase, you’ll find yourself in stronger positions and with greater control over your risk in the market. These strategies can help you catch trend-following breakouts without falling prey to the frequent traps that catch traders off guard.
EURNZD the standout in Long-Currency's in Asia trade Wedesday
Hi everyone, I got into this trade not long ago to the long-side, but as it has plenty of potential I thought I would share.
On the 4HR timeframe, there is currently a bullish heads 'n' shoulders pattern adding some buying fuel.
There was a recent pullback so a good time to enter if you are after a Long trade.
On the chart, the indicator at the bottom is on-balance-volume which has had a good uptick today so far.
This trade is also trend-friendly, this is a Daily chart and you will see the thicker white line which is the 200EMA, the thinner dark-blue is 50EMA and Crimson colour is 100EMA. The very thick white arrowed line is the heads n shoulders neckline where price has broken out this morning.