EEM
Long term Bearish SPX, Correlation Analysis showing Positive ( green boxes) negative (red Boxes) and Mixed ( yellow and orange Boxes) prediction for 2017. Expecting to See some sharp fall in prices in July, Based on Gann Cycles.
Short EEMBy extension of the reconvergence trade between EEM & HG_F, it's now worth looking at EEM vs DXY (inverted). If this dollar break-out ensues, it bodes rather negatively for EEM. One could reasonably argue the case to be short EEM on this basis.
SPX - Emerging Market DivergenceIt's common for 'risk-on' assets to move together. The above chart shows the SPX with an overlay of the Emerging Market ETF (EEM). Also, below the chart is the correlation of the two. As we can see they are fairly correlated and they generally move together, just the magnitude of the movement is where they differ. In the last couple of days the emerging markets have sold off. As shown by the red line. Whereas, the SPX has been flat. Now, the pundits indicate that this is because of President-elects expected policies as well as the rise in interest rates. The later of the arguments is more compelling. Given that rates have climbed higher, the reach for yield has taken out the first 'risk-on' asset: emerging markets. The next domino to fall will be the SPX as the higher quality 'risk-on' assets are attacked. The EEM etf's dividend yield stands at 2.0%, same as the SPX. Given the lower quality, but higher growth, associated with emerging markets, its understandable that it would come down first. Now with the 10-yr yield at 2.25%, higher than both the SPX and EEM dividend yields, the reach for yield is unwinding.
OIL/ARS: Uptrend spotted, YPF going up?Seems like the case here, we could see a prolonged rally in YPF and OIL expressed in ARS.
If you drive, sorry for you...hopefully, you have been buying USD and/or GOLD as per my reccomendation before this devaluation surge started.
Good luck, we'll need it.
Ivan Labrie.
YPF: Time at mode forecastThis is the potential upside in store for YPF shares, if the uptrend confirms. You can look to take a long position here, risking a drop under the recent low to be safe. We can add to it once it confirms the biweekly uptrend, very similarly to the commodity index setup (logically, due to the sector).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Emerging Markets & CopperInteresting deviation between Emerging Markets and Copper observing it normalised over various time horizons.
EEMISHARES MSCI EEM facing some resistance near 39 if not clear then may fall to 30 level which also drag all the emerging mkts.
RSX ready to take offFor whatever reason, Russia is not tied to oil price from the technical analysis point of view, could it be geopolitical issue at play? A Trump win in Nov could lift the sanction? I don't know.
Nonetheless, RSX is poised to run toward 21
EEM long, with upcoming Sell targetsit appears like the Emerging Market is making a comeback this year. Some upcoming sell Targets for Eem.
Early Stages of A New Bull Market Or Bull Trap In A Bear Market?Let's see how commodities work in the near future. Fundamentals has not changed, but e.g. Oil has rallied a lot. DXY is likely to raise and then you should see commodities going down again and EEM and other equity markets should react also.
MACD seems to be going to negative territory soon which would confirm the trend.
ENZL: Compelling top spottedWe can go short ENZL at market, and aim for a significantly large target.
Stops should be above this week's high (trading range).
Expecting to see a sharp decline to ensue here in the intermediate term.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
USDCNH: Weekly short setup, long the laggardUSDCNH is a very interesting pair right now.
In this chart you can see a few instruments, pitted against each other.
Currently, talking currencies, the offshore yuan is lagging the group, compared to the other dollar pairs on chart, and it happens to have a weekly time at mode downtrend signal, which confirmed last week on close, which gives us targets of 6.37 and 6.28, with a possibility based on the monthly, of hitting 6.05 in the long term.
Keep a wide stop loss if you take this trade, I'd reccomend 1 to 3 ATR for the stop, and short at market.
As a sidenote, you can also see that Palladium and Copper are lagging the group. Now, this could mean that on a relative strength basis, the Yen, Canadian dollar and gold, are safer investments, but it also implies they have already moved a lot, and they might not have as much room up, compared to CNH, EUR, AUD, Copper or Palladium.
I'm willing to wager on the latter being true.
Keep risk reasonable, and good luck if you take this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Emerging has cooled off last couple days = nice entry oppBuyer around 34.50. Careful of gaps in this thing. Know your risk.
