Short term follow up on EEM: May get a bounce here.EEM has dropped nicely since my post 7 days ago. Personally I am covering my short position temporarily which usually means EEM will now drop like a rock. But I noticed there is now a potential positive reversal on the 2 hour chart which sometimes leads to a nice bounce. If price drops below 42.45 then the reversal will be cancelled. If short you may want to keep an eye on the down trend line. Take care. Enjoy the day.
EEM
Follow up on EEM I'm still bearish On my last post of EEM I noted it may still go to a .78 retracement which it did. In the process it has developed a potential bearish divergence in the RSI daily. The negative reversal remains as well and together this is often (but not always) a bearish combination. Plus a longer term support line may now become resistance. Take care. This one likes to jump and gap a lot. Goodguy.
Follow up on Emerging markets EEM: Reversal Week. Last Thursday I suggested that EEM may be about to fall but wait for sign of reversal. Friday's down action wiped out all the gains in EEM for the week producing a nice shooting star weekly candle. After a large rise this is often a sign of reversal. Some authors suggest that one way to trade this is to short with a stop on any close > than the high (in this case > 43.71.) Others might wait for the up trend line to be broken. Notice the price this week went just high enough to take out a weekly gap (those nasty gaps) but did not reach .78 retraction. So possibly there could be one more intra day shot at that level. ETFs: 2x bear EEV,, 3x bear EDZ.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to trade but hopefully will be helpful in the way you choose to trade.
Take care. Goodguy
Emerging Markets EEM About to fall??Short term the emerging markets are on a tear up. But from this longer term chart you can see they are in a long term downtrend. IF IF IF this count is correct then we are ready for possibly a fast and furious fall over the next few months. You may want to watch the action for the next few days to see if at least a short term reversal is forming. ETFs :2x bear EEV, 3x bear EDZ
EEM About to fall?? Short term the emerging markets are on a tear up. But from a longer perspective they are in a downtrend.. IF IF IF this count is correct then we may be ready for a fast and furious fall. You may want to watch the action in the next few days to see if it looks like at least a short term reversal. 3x bear etf is EDZ Warning;: this index can be very volatile so wear your seat belt. Take care. Have a great spring weekend ahead. Goodguy.
Sorry repeated this post. I didn't think the first posting uploaded.
DXY watch - 11/26/2014Dollar faces double resistance with lost momentum. Meanwhile assets inversely correlated with dollar seem to be doing better.
If dollar is weakening in the next several months, these assets may be favorable. Conversely if dollar breaks out and continue to strengthen, these assets will be pressured even more. I will watch the red support lines closely.
EEM / SPY - update and deductions from timwest's ideasSome time after the original chart was posted by timwest:
CCI shows a diveregence now with this pair, and, although a gut feeling - something tells me that chances are we may see a trend change in future, and EEM will outperform the US market.
Another thing to add to this is also timwest's chart (one can never praise this chartist enough on the site) - the discrepancy and distance between EEM and SPY became so large, it feels as it has to narrow down. But it is only up to "you, the reader" to decide what he feels may happen
- On one side you have US markets with a huge run over 2013 and 2014, where we've been expecting a drop that never happens
- On the other, EEM that has been going lower and recently turned up a bit. (one can note some run-ups of such countries as Korea, Thailand, India, Brazil, Turkey and even Japan sits on the verge of braking up).
So again 2 scenarios -
1) EEM breaks lower, Spy remains in tact or goes higher
2) EEM breaks up, and SPy gets its sell-off and correction.
If this idea - - holds by years end, and so far it does - then scenario 2 is quite probable. But first this pair needs to overcome the 23 resistance level.
Must quote today's comment from Tim "We are nearing the end of the end of the end of all of the positive forces holding up the market."
And my deductions agree fully with him on " I think the trade will be "out of developed markets" and into "emerging markets" for the next year"
I must include timwest's ideas that altogether will show which scenario i am leaning to and i urge you to read his comment-update on the forecast chart
PS - dear Tim. Never think that your charts are useless - i try not to post much and distract you from doing research, but if you wish i would leave notes on charts i think are good ideas (on top of the stars and thumbs up). This chart and idea is wholly made from your ideas - but added a whole deal of confidence to my feelings of the market.
IOO:GLOBAL 100 INDEX AT 2,618 FIB AND 3,14 OF TIMEGlobal 100 index shares of largest companies at 2,618 off of 2012 lows and 3.14 pi time this coming week, if we connect the two lower closings of 2011.
At the top of the 3 year up trending channel again, where price has been rejected 5 times so far.
Cheers,
Panos