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EEM

$EEM - Emerging Markets Under PressureAs volatility has come back to the global markets with a vengeance, one headwind that continues to blow even stronger continues to be the US-China trade war. On August 2nd, the US unexpectedly imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, with the Chinese now threatening to retaliate in kind. As a result of this renewed volatility, Emerging Market stocks ($EEM) have been rattled heavily over the past few trading sessions. On a technical basis, $EEM prices are below all three of its EMAs, with a death crosses forming on i) the 10-Day and 50 & 200-Day EMAs, and ii) the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA, something that has not been seen since May. Further, its RSI continues to fall, indicating that momentum is quickly increasing to the downside as global investors lose faith in Emerging Markets. Lastly, $EEM prices seem to to be in a downward trend since July 25th, with the EEM/SPY price ratio continuing its march lower, as global investors (continue to) invest in the US over Emerging Markets. Given the increase in rhetoric between the two economic giants, Emerging Market stocks are currently under heavy bearish pressure, with no end in sight. If these pressures continue on the space, we see $EEM heading lower to $38.45 as its next stop.
AMEX:EEMShort
by EconomicsGlobal
Take advantage of how sensitive the market is!We currently live in a world where media has major sway in the psychology of investors, including ones who do their homework. After watching $EEM closely, I see that at each major event over the past few months (tariffs placed on China, Federal Reserve doesn't reveal a rate cut at June 18-19th meeting, G20 meeting) the ETF spiked before cooling down as more information became available. I see an opportunity that can be taken advantage of regarding the upcoming FOMC July 30th date. Short term profits although as history has shown they can be short lived, so take profits early I would suggest. The rising wedge suggests a potential spike but an inevitable drop as more data is made available. PS: I forgot to add some indicators to further support my argument, but feel free to comment and give your own opinion, also this is my first post so I'm open to any constructive criticism you have too.
AMEX:EEMLong
by blocknchain
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: COST EARNINGS; EEM, OIH, XOP, TSLAEARNINGS COST (46/25) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of the regular New York session. Pictured here is an iron condor in the July (53 days) expiry with the short options at their respective 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.55 at the mid price, a smidge shy of one-third the width of the wings, with break evens wide of the expected move at 228.45/266.55 and delta/theta metrics of -1.41/1.93, and a buying power effect of 3.45. For those who don't like waiting as long for their candy, the June monthly (28 days) iron condor with the shorties set up nearest the 20 delta -- the 230/235/260/265 is paying spot on one-third the width of 1.68 with break evens at 233.32/261.68, delta/theta metrics of -1.65/3.80, and a buying power effect of 3.32. As of Friday close, the May 31st (4 days) to June volatility contraction is from 34.7% to 24.7% or about 28.8%. Look to manage intratrade by rolling the untested side toward current price on approaching worthless with a 50% max take profit target. BROAD MARKET Majors are at the lower end of their 52-week ranges with background implied in QQQ and IWM in the low 20's; SPY and EFA, in the teens: EEM (32/21) QQQ (27/21) IWM (28/20) SPY (27/16) EFA (23/16) The EEM July 19th 36/40/40/44 iron fly is paying 25% of the width of the longs (8-wide) at 2.05 and break evens right at the expected move of 37.95/42.05, delta/theta metrics of -9.01/1.09, with a buying power effect of 1.95. Look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle. Generally, these can't be effectively managed intratrade to delta balance without adding setup, so any trade management has to occur toward the back end of the cycle (i.e., taking untested off at approaching worthless, rolling out tested, selling untested side against in new cycle, assuming that the roll out of the tested and the sell against can be done for a net credit). QQQ is paying slightly more than one-third the width of the wings for the short option strikes nearest the 20's -- the 163/166/188/191: 1.16 credit, break evens at 164.84/189.16, delta/theta metrics of -3.55/1.55, and a buying power effect of 1.84. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit. A similarly delta'd IWM setup is paying 1.06: the July 19th 137/141/159/162, with break evens of 139.94/160.06, delta/theta metrics of -1.82/1.34, and a buying power effect of 1.94. 50% max take profit. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (45/28); ASHR (42/28); OIH (40/37); XLB (41/31); EEM (32/21). The only short straddle paying in excess of 10% of the value of the stock is OIH with the July 19th 14 short straddle paying 1.51 versus 13.81 spot. The at-the-money short straddle in the closely correlated XOP (30/34), the July 19th 27, is also paying > 10%: 2.82 versus 27.12 spot. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested side on approaching worthless to cut net delta in half without inverting to a width greater than credits received; 25% max take profit. SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW TSLA (62/83). The July cycle iron condor set up nearest the 20's -- the 150/155/235/240 is paying 1.78 at the mid, -31/1.65 delta/theta. Markets are wide, so look to do some price discovery if you want to get in on a play. Manage intratrade by rolling in untested on approaching worthless toward current price; 50% max take profit.
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, HPQ EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, EEM PREMIUMEARNINGS: HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close. Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96. Alternative Trades: June 21st 180/205 short strangle, 2.48 credit (1.24 at 50 max), one standard deviation move break evens, 4.33/9.35 delta/theta metrics. HPQ is a bit hard to work with given its size, which imply that the only way you'll get paid to play is via short straddle. The June 21st 19 is paying 1.60 (.40 at 25 max), with expected move break evens and delta/theta metrics of -5.00/2.23. Alternative Trades: June 21st 18 short put (bullish assumption; potential acquisition play), .45 credit, 29.78 delta, cost basis of 17.55 if assigned (a 7.9% discount over where the stock was trading at Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SORTED BY RANK/IMPLIED Top 5 By Rank: ASHR (57/30), GDXJ (50/28), EEM (41/21), GDX (40/34), SMH (37/29). Top 5 By Implied: OIH (34/34), EWZ (27/34), XOP (22/31), XBI (35/31), ASHR (57/30). We're a bit close in time for June setups (33 days) and a bit far out for July (61), so would probably wait until the July monthly is closer in time in the absence of absolutely desperation to pile on theta to burn ... .
NYSE:HD
by NaughtyPines
3
EEM - Short - $40 targetEEM which can be thought as "Emerging Markets" looks fucked to me. Short this. Baring a sudden trade deal this week (unlikely), EEM could see sub $40. The puts I purchased last week have already doubled in value. :) From a TA standpoint, let's review. Price is below the green line (bearish) but bounced off support in the last 10 minutes of the trading day. Thank you algo panic buying. The price could also find support at the .618 line or $40.62 but the .786 price of $39.47 lines up rather neatly with the supporting trend line. Time frame: end of the month, possibly by 5/17.
AMEX:EEMShort
by jdharward
EEM ETF: Lower long term Buy opportunity.The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is on bearish 1W price action (RSI = 41.481, Highs/Lows = -1.8644), repeating a pattern last seen in April 2011 - May 2012. During that period the price was rejected at 44.90, crossed below the MA50 and MA200 and found support just over the 0.786 Fibonacci level before recovering 100%. We expect a similar price behavior today as the price was rejected at 44.85 and has already crossed below the MA50. The crossing below the MA200 remains and the rebound above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which puts the support around 39.50 - 39.60. Our target is 44.80. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
AMEX:EEMLong
by InvestingScope
1
Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate SpikeThis is an excerpt from MACRO BRIEF: Hong Kong Dollar Strengthens on Rate Spike originally published March 10, 2019. The short-HKD trade is nearly consensus, which reminds me of the short-yuan trade a few years ago that was largely snuffed out by the PBOC. Problem here, though, is the HKMA's attempts to draw in HKD inflows have been superficial at best. Additionally, with China likely continuing using Hong Kong as a dollar ATM it is hard to estimate how long the strength would last. The 3.7 sigma move has pulled in quite a bit but still remains extended. 7-day ROC saw its largest spike since December when the HIBOR 1M and 3M futures converged. We'll continue to monitor the situation, but prolonged elevation of rates could be a problem considering that Hong Kong's economy is strongly interest rate sensitive with banking assets and domestic credit to public sector as a percentage of GDP at well over 200 percent. To access original charts and commentary on this blog post click here .
by TheMacroStrategist
Good news out of China, EEM Should be Up TodayEEM is mostly made up Chinese A-shares meaning this ETF is primarily dependent upon data coming out of China. Recent data is quite promising while the US-China trade war negotiations continue to show positive developments. Exports data coming out of China is positive this morning, moreover the US will not keep on putting pressure on China politically according to Bloomberg. Also, data suggests the trade surplus increases while credit growth beats estimates. Could see 3 to 6 percent increase in Shanghai on Monday if all else is equal. Bottom line is EEM could be up maybe 1 percent today given the positive news and sentiment coming out of the Middle Kingdom.
AMEX:EEM
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3