Get started

EEM

Shanghai Composite / S&P 500 ratio & The USDHKD PegUnsurprisingly, similar to the currency, the outperformance of the Chinese stock market vs. the S&P 500 falters when the Chinese currency can't be sustained. Not quite as direct of a relationship, but this clearly affects emerging markets, which are highly indebted to the dollar. This is visible if you go back further as well - the broad rolling emerging market problems all occurred starting when the USDHKD peg was hit in April 2018. April 18th, 2018 was a pivotal day in that regard. Also, it's no surprise that EM currency problems are starting to suddenly become problematic once again....
by GTStockmaster
USDHKD and its relationship to Emerging Markets vs. US EquitiesUSDHKD is a proxy for monetary "stuff" going on in China. China can stimulate when this peg is not being hit as most of their dollar funding seems to be running through Hong Kong. When the peg gets hit however, we see noticeable problems and effects around the world. We are now about to see the peg get re-hit once again, which will likely kick off another wave of unexpected monetary issues around the world similar to what we saw last April. We will likely see more emerging market underperformance once again relative to US equities if this is in fact indicative of what is going on in the shadows.
by GTStockmaster
EEM Resuming Bull Market Started in 2016Emerging Markets (EEM) seem to be resuming the bull market that started in early 2016. 1) Recently broke out from downward channel 2) Broke out from alternative shorter term negative trend line 3) Is in the track to end the week confirming a bullish pivot, surpassing the last short term top. Medium term objective is last major top the occurred in jan 18. Long term objective is a major long term impulsive move with similar magnitude and duration of the jan 16 - jan 18 uptrend move. Stop at the same level the EEM completed its pullback to the negative channel.
AMEX:EEMLong
by BrunoBoni
OPENING: EEM FEB/APRIL 36/41/41/46 DOUBLE DIAGONAL... for a 1.22/contract credit. Doing a smidge of defined risk, all-weather, broad market instrumentation here ... . The metrics aren't much to look at, because they aren't static,* but here they are: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $378/contract Max Profit on Setup: $122 Delta: 3.48 Theta: 1.9 As far as intratrade management is concerned: Look to roll out the short straddle aspect on decrease in value/realized gain for a credit to at-the-money. Since the short straddle aspect is worth only 1.80 here, you're probably going to want to wait until something approaching 25% max (i.e., .45) before burning a roll. As far as the long strangle aspect is concerned, my tendency is to largely leave it alone unless the short straddle has moved significantly to one side or the other, at which time I generally look at recentering the long strangle via rolling. Look to take profit at 25% of what you'd get were this a static iron fly with risk one to make one metrics (in this case, it's a 5-wide with a risk one to make one setup paying 2.50 with a 25% max of .63 or so) and then reset the setup anew. * -- The overall risk of the trade can potentially diminish over time on roll of the short straddle body for additional credits and/or adjustments of the long strangle aspect to maintain max loss potential (the difference between the width of the spread and total credits received).
AMEX:EEM
by NaughtyPines
7
EEM Stuck Below MAEEM is trending in a down-up counter trend. It has failed over the last 8 months to close above its Moving-Average on a weekly basis. I am using the 16-day Moving Average (representing 3 weeks +1 of trading days), but you can play with the period and you will see similar results. EEM is currently testing close to its 16-day Moving Average and near the top of its channel resistance line. This is telling me that there is a strong possibility for the price to drop further down over the next week or two. I think taking a sell-limit at $39.00 with a buy-stop at $40.61 (its 16-day Moving Average), and a take-profit at $37.58 (a previous resistance level tested) is the way to play this trend trade.
AMEX:EEMShort
by BinaryPairing
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP, OIH, USO, XLE, UNG, EEMEarnings With >70 Rank/>50 Implied: No underlyings with highly liquid options with earnings announcements in the next week. With single names with earnings announcements in the rear view mirror, we're looking at earnings starting up again in the January cycle; I'd rather just play those closer to the announcement, rather than get caught up in a volatility expansion (e.g., CAT (84/40) with earnings in 53 vs. January opex 47 days until expiration). Exchange-Traded Funds With >50 Rank/>35 Implied XOP (81/44) OIH (81/43) USO (81/57) XLE (75/27) UNG (75/88) Notes: As you can see by the pictured setup, XOP is at the bottom of its 52-week range. With OPEC talks right around the corner (and likely jawboning to ensue), I'm slightly enamored with a bullish assumption setup here as compared to a nondirectional premium selling play, even though there's premium to be had (the Jan 18th 29/37 short strangle's paying 1.09 with a 70% probability of profit). Last week, I entered into a similar setup in OIH, (See Post Below), since it's gotten the sledge hammer to a greater degree than the rest of the petro-sensitive exchange traded funds. In any event, here are the metrics for the pictured play: Max Loss on Setup/Buying Power Effect: 4.02 debit/contract; Max Profit on Setup: 1.98/contract; Break Even on Setup: 33.02 vs. for a 6-wide, BE at 33.02 vs. 32.81 spot; Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 67%. Look to roll the short call aspect out on significant loss of value (usually 50% max) and to take profit at 50% max (.99/$99 per contract). UNG has been pesky. I've looked at getting into a bearish assumption, seasonality-related short setup, but every time I look, the markets are stupid-wide, making it unattractive from an entry/exit perspective. Given its high rank/implied, however, it might be amenable to a bearishly skewed oppositional setup if you're willing to do a bit of price discovery and not settle for sub-mid price nonsense: the Jan 18th 27/46 short strangle is paying 2.92 at the mid with a net delta metric of =25.44 and break evens at 24.08 and 48.92, which covers a fairly huge swath of the 52-week range. If you're willing to spend a little more time in the trade, the April 18th 26/46 pays 4.91 at the mid, is =29.44 delta, and has break evens of 21.09 and 50.91, although I could see the reluctance to hang yourself out there undefined given the movement it's experienced over the last several weeks. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ranked By 30-Day Implied EEM 26 QQQ 24 IWM 20 SPY 18 EFA 18 Notes: The EEM Jan 18th 41 short straddle is paying 2.69; the ~30 delta, 39/43 short strangle pays 1.15. I've been working it via double diagonal with a short straddle body, just so I don't have to leg into and out of the long strangle aspect and to budget buying power devoted to the trade. (See Post Below).
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM, ANF, HPQ EARNINGS; XOP, NFLX, FCX, EEMEARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50: CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy. ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close; the 25 delta 14/19 short strangle, 1.19. HPQ (85/41): Announces Thursday after market close. The Dec 21st 22/23 skinny short strangle is paying 1.45, which makes for a near nominal trade at 25% max (.36 profit). Look for background implied to ramp up to 50 plus; otherwise, pass on a play. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH A RANK >50/IMPLIED >35: USO (100/66): I tend to use this more as of oil volatility indicator than anything (although you can naturally look at that more directly with OVX). Here, it's saying "Sell premium in petro underlyings," which for me means XOP, XLE, or OIH. UNG (96/104): With UNG, I'm waiting for a seasonality short, but think putting on something in December is likely to be too early. January, however, is coming into range (currently 54 DTE). XOP (85/45): A smidge early to go out to January, but the 29/36 is paying a 1.52 in that expiry; the 32/33 "skinny," 3.58. SINGLE NAME WITH A RANK OF >70/IMPLIED >50/EARNINGS IN REAR VIEW: NFLX (78/59): It's still got juice ... . The Jan 18th 25-delta 220/225/300/305 iron condor's paying 2.13 at the mid (but the platform's showing wide markets, so that may not be as hot at NY open). FCX (71/55): The Jan 18th 11 short straddle is paying 1.73. BROAD MARKET: EEM (71/27) QQQ (66/28) IWM (62/24) SPY (39/21) EFA (13/20)
NYSE:CRM
by NaughtyPines