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EEM

EEM: Long term long setupI'd look into allocating a long term position in emerging market stocks here, it's quite possible the dollar topped for now, and this would be an optimal place to rejoin this yearly uptrend. Long term we can see $EEM climb up over $100 easily, and it might be a safe place to keep some exposure to as a hedge for the dollar. I also like Gold and Gold miners here, and would consider allocating some of the portfolio to them as well, together with positions in high growth exponential adoption trends like Bitcoin, EVs, Solar, Renewable energy, eto name a few. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:EEMLong
by IvanLabrie
3
THE WEEK AHEAD: TSLA EARNINGS, EEMAlthough AAPL and GILD announce earnings next week, the only earnings announcement that interests me from a premium selling standpoint is TSLA, with a background implied volatility of over 65%. The 73% probability of profit May 11th 255/330 short strangle is paying 5.83 at the mid (off hours quotes) with its defined risk counterpart, the 68% probability of profit May 11th 250/255/330/335 iron condor paying 1.06, which is less than I'd like to see out of a 5-wide. On the exchange-traded fund front, most of the most liquid funds are sub-35% implied volatility, which generally makes for less than compelling premium selling plays. For what it's worth, however, the top five ranked by implied volatility are: XOP (30.4%), OIH (30.2%), EWZ (27.4%), GDXJ (25.5%), and FXI (23.1%). I'm already in XOP and GDX plays, so I might consider having another go at "the Brazilian" in the June cycle -- the June 15th 39/47 short strangle (18 delta) is paying .77. Naturally, more aggressive delta strikes pay more, and it may be amenable to a short straddle/iron fly, depending on your account size, risk appetite, and patience for managing an underlying that seems to whip all over the place on occasion ... . Alternatively, I might go with another net credit double diagonal due to setup flexibility over a static one-off play, this time in the fairly broad market EEM, which has been closely tracking FXI of late, but is of greater liquidity: the June/Sept 44/47/47.5/50.5 double net credit diagonal is .26 at the mid for a three-wide, and I'd probably look to bail on it at 20% the width of the 3.00 wings ... . I'll also look at bullish directional shots in IYR, XLI, XHB, and/or XLP, which appear to be the weakest of the sectors currently. Pricing those out in non-New York hours tends to be non-productive since the deep-in-the-money back months show wide bid/ask in off hours, so it's tough to tell how much you're going to have to commit buying power wise to play ... .
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP, EWZ, EEM, QQQ, AND VIXEven though earnings season is winding down to a few names (BB, GME) next week, there's stuff to play in sectors or broad market, with the May expiry (54 days until expiry) coming into view for plays. The XOP May 18th 31/39 short strangle (19 delta) is paying .98 at the mid with the slightly more aggressive 25 delta 32/38 paying 1.38. If you're looking to go defined risk, you'll probably have to go wide iron fly (e.g., the May 18th 29/35/35/41 iron fly is paying 3.05 with a max loss metric of 2.95). The EWZ May 18th 40/48 short strangle (22 delta) is paying 1.38; the more aggressive 29 delta 41/47, 1.86. The 38/41/47/49 delta neutral iron condor is paying just a smidge over a buck at 1.01. The EEM May 18th 44/50 short strangle (25 delta) is paying 1.18. If you aggress in toward the 30's, a 42/45/49/51 delta neutral iron condor will pay just over a buck with break evens around the expected move for the expiry. QQQ: one word -- juicy, particularly if you can "go naked." The May 18th 145/170 20 delta short strangle is paying 3.62 at the mid. The 142/145/170/172 delta neutral iron condor is showing .86 at the mid after hours, but the bid/ask is wide. I wouldn't bother with a defined risk play for less than 1.00/contract ... . Lastly, the VIX. Futures term structure is in backwardation which sets up a rare and interesting play, which I've described in a separate post (see below).
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
EEM Bearishflag BreakoutGood Evening! This is a brief analysis for EEM ! Keeping it simple, we're sitting nicely in the middle of our long term support and resistance. The trend-line verifies that. It's been a little shaky coming off our high in mid-January, but the bulls are back at it and hey they even made a flag. :) I'll give it 10 days at the verrrrry most for us to hit breakout at $50. We'll hit $52 within a month and probably retest that level a few times before breaking out and hitting $53 by mid-May. This has been an educational only analysis by nmholtgraves!
AMEX:EEM
by nmholtgraves
The Jeff Gundlach Trade: Short SPX500/Long Emerging MarketsThis is a pair trade Jeff Gundlach (CEO/CIO of DoubleLine Capital) presented at the Sohn Conference this year. His thesis is to short the S&P 500 against the emerging market ETF, EEM. Every year I run a technical analysis on Sohn conference stock presentations. The ones that intrigue me most are major movers of broad assets and macro themes. The technicals found in this spread confirm Gundlach's thesis and offer a valid trade. 1) Major advanced pattern. 2) Major structural demand for EEM against SPX (blue). 3) Possible double top (purple). 4) Possible TL breakdown. 5) Target aligned with structure.
FX:SPX500Short
by Lanmar
2
SPX: Breakdown of the downtrend, and longer term signalsSPX is getting extremely interesting, now that VIX has spiked for more than 5 points on the current market decline. I'm monitoring the decline to catch the exact bottom in the market, which I think can end up matching the bottom in oil, and the energy sector, and a great chance to add to my EEM longs too, and acquire more latin american stocks. I updated my time at mode analysis for SPX in the yearly timeframe, and there's a target at 2987usd, so, we might end up seeing that after the correction bottoms. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Inflation, China and Emerging MarketsIn higher inflation environments, money flows typically begin to head into emerging markets. This is primarily due to the fact that many of them are commodity producers. When looking at capital flows into EM-nations and real treasury term premia, it is this capital flow which is partly responsible for driving up interest rates. When taking this into account, it is expected that continued flow into emerging markets will keep interest rates elevated. However, there is an increasing relationship into capital flows into emerging markets and China’s monetary policy, which to say the least is non-consistent. We believe the late-cycle inflation in the U.S., plus the likely even that China could face another liquidity crunch, the outlook on EEM is neutral. Although, price momentum is strong the rapidly declining volume is a key signal that a bull trap could be in place. Key risk ranges available on chart.
AMEX:EEM
by MacroView_TrendFlex