Stock Market Logic Series #10Do you think the above is a coincidence?
There are no coincidences in life - only cause and effect.
You are where you are because of a cause that is bound to physical and natural laws.
The same pressure of physics that works on the airplane wing, or the balloon that wants to push its way up when pressed into water (pool), also works in the stock market.
You just have to KNOW how to SEE it. follow my explanation.
If you follow the price action, you can see clearly where the high-pressure volume comes in, you can't miss it. It is obviously seen.
Then you need to wait for the correction, and you want to see that the correction is demonstrating a low-volume pressure behavior.
When you see this low volume pressure behavior, the stock has DRIED UP.
This DRYING-UP effect is a key indicator of a probable future LIFT and stock movement.
You want to ask yourself the question:
Why the stock is not falling down anymore?
The question of "WHY" is searching for the cause BEHIND the stock movement.
The stock movement is only the effect!
In previous posts, I explained the other LOGIC behind this pattern, and explained why the price should not fall down and with a high probability of going up.
If you read any of the books of Jesse Livermore, he clearly states that you need to "KNOW" that the stock will move your way, first let the market "SHOW YOU" exactly what will happen, and only then you put in a trade.
The KEY CONCEPT in this idea is the DRYING UP OF VOLUME.
When you understand the WHY behind the stock movement, buying and selling are emotionless.
The focus should be only a trading setups that you "KNOW" it is highly probable to move in your expected trade direction. You "KNOW" because you have stock market LOGIC to back it up.
If you want a specific post about Jesse Livermore's trading rules, let me know in the comments.
It is always important to make sure that you have the correct perspective on the stock market, otherwise, you get confused. There is only at every given time only ONE side to the market as Jesse Livermore said, "The RIGHT SIDE". This goes back to my idea, that at every given time the puppet master ONLY buys or sells but NOT BOTH.
Effect
how the federal reserve rates effect btc priceFed officials have signaled that they expect to raise it to a range of 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent by year's end. On Wednesday, Powell is expected to hammer home the Fed's determination to raise rates until inflation falls, even at the risk of slowing growth too much.
SHILL TO The SlaughterSGT Slaughter was here SHill goes up and down and up and down .yep thats about it
first test run: psychological effect range theory applied to fibMost things are written on the chart. I have hidden the reference fib itself as it is specifically edited for a certain purpose, but I base it on the psychological effect range theory (should be easy to figure out my methodology just knowing that) as well as the silver ratio for highs rather than the somewhat misused golden ratio (it's not really that prevalent in things, but... the silver ratio is). If it pans out I will show it perhaps
If you are not familiar with the silver ratio it is 1+sqrt(2), or 2.4142~. It is an irrational number. It is an infinitely descending series of 2 + 1 over itself. i.imgur.com image so it makes more sense
First we need to know why fib is naturally flawed (a fib haha!) as a tool. phi (yawn trdvw wont let me post the greek letter), phi = 1 + sqrt(5) / 2. Now, this seems to be too complex needlessly to me. Nature is simplistic in its foundation, but simple in its own way. It is highly irrational when it begins to contend with shapes that are not squares. A circle by definition is irrational, since it is made of an infinite number of angles, and this concept is best described as an o.
But regardless of how people talk about it it's not proven in any measure to be truthful, BUT can be used it certain ways to frame one's set of planning, better than no planning and all.
so what makes more sense for a deterministic chart
1+sqrt(5)/2 or 1+sqrt(2)?
trick question, neither does.
However, I am using it as my upper range in regards to the fib retracement tool. It is the 'end goal'- of the bull run. this happens to be 25k, if you don't zoom around the chart. the first target, however, is the sqrt(2), 1.4142. that's at 20,400, and completely reasonable to blow past should the psychological barrier of 20k (which is 2/3rd of the way from the line below sqrt(2) and the previous line, btw).
There is the math behind the levels being picked, but really, the concept underlies effect range theory, in that most people tend to over or underreact to situations, and if in a median approach, tend to end up in another one before too long.
The trend sections on my (not shown, but published privately yesterday for honesty's sake) chart show the channels of interest mostly lining up with profit/loss; if a range is being overused, it won't want to stay in that range, otherwise what's the point? you're trading the same amounts for the same amounts.
I am rather new to financial markets but not new to analysis so I welcome anyone who can lead me to those that already decided/figured some of these out. I am still studying and trying to learn.
Bullish patterns stacked atop eachother creating domino effectThe small siamese double falling wedges from our previous ideas that were also acting as a bull pennant recently triggered taking us far enough above the bigger green falling wedge shown here to ensure we will likely be triggering the green falling wedge breakout as well which should take us to a target around 4726 if it triggers which is comfortably enpugh above the tan symmetrical triangle pattern around the green wedge that it should also trigger the symmetrical triangle breakout as well which has a target around 5054 or so which just so happens to be far enough above the lop trendline of the largest falling wedge we are currently in and if we can somehow trigger the breakout of that one we would then have an upward target of 7.6k. All these patterns are stacked and staggered on top of eachother just right to create the perfect bullish domino effect. Considering the total market caps falling wedge we are currently breaking out of if triggered could triple to quadruple the price of the entire crypto marketcap if that is to hit it's target then btc to 7.6k actually aligns quite well with that charts targets. Fakeouts of course are always possible so there's no guarantee every one of these patterns will trigger but currently it does look like the perfect bullish storm.
Wall Street (and S&P500) - technical picture vs seasonalityIn this screen cast I explore the Halloween Effect -which is a seasonal pattern - going back to 2012.
My overall position is that from 2012, the Halloween Effect is more probable, However, it is not 100%.
Statistical studies have been tracking this effect based on data largely based on a far more data before 2012 (but including the time up to the the present).
Markets have changed a whole lot since 2012 (a far more electronic world, ease of moving money around etc).
In addition the Halloween Effect has not been subject to geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that have piled up in the last 3 years.
The technical picture is one of fragility from Jan 2018.
Bitcoin Cause & EffectCause and effect the cornerstone of Wyckoff methodology. Time to get physical, Isaac Newton famously once said ‘For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction’. With that in mind, let's use it analyse the previous cycles on BTC…
Aprils accumulation (cause) and markup phase (effect). Accumulation lasted 13days and markup lasted an equal amount of time. NOTE: dropping volume on markup
Mays distribution (cause) and markup phase (effect). Distribution lasted 26days and markdown lasted 23days. :thonking
June/Julys accumulation (cause) lasted 34days. Markup is yet to be defined but based on these findings I think there's a strong chance that this markup cycle lasts a similar amount of time. NOTE: Expanding volume on markup
Obviously, this is highly speculative but most definitely worth keeping in mind when calling distribution, the top or have weak shakey childs like hands. :thonking
Twitter feed here -> twitter.com
Ripple: XRPUSD Ripple Effect - next buy pointsRipple XRPUSD
Ripple continues to avoid the worst of the fall-out across most
other Alts - still riding high. It's consolidating recent gains
having doubled from 124 to 248, after near doubling again
before that from 64. It's making a U shaped top formation and
now struggling to bust above the old support line which has
become resistance to the upside - and now the range is
beginning to narrow. It has some more unwinding to do yet
but can be bought on dips, though would really only look to
day trade it for now though as this U -shape pattern has some
way to play out yet - the range between 212 and 197 and dips
to 185 could prove profitable in nearterm.
Others looking to buy this rising star can place orders at 197
and even 186 which should get struck if patient enough.
DXY approaching a critical area of resistance also 0.236% fib.The Dollar Index (DXY) is close to a zone of resistance around 92.88 which is also 0.236% fib. Is in this area that I am waiting for a long time to reach and we might see a short to medium term correction or even reverse if the greenback shows some worrying signs.