Is the bottom in?For me the 2 scenarios on the table right now are highlighted on the above chart in Green (bullish EIW) and Red (bearish EIW)
The Green scenario suggests that the ‘bottom’ is already in for BTC, we closed weekly above 19.7k which was vital to this theory. There are also some major bullish indicators on multiple time frames of the charts which should signal the move up to the 32 – 27k region. This will form wave 1 in the bullish (green) scenario with wave 2 coming down to the 786 and holding it as support. We will need to hold this area as support on the larger timeframes for this to provide confirmation and then see a break of the major blue trendline above.
The Red scenario suggest that the ‘bottom’ is not in and given the current global market sentiment it is very easy to believe this might be the case. With the S&P500, NDQ and the DJI all looking like they have further downside in them how can BTC not go down further? The move up to previously mentioned 32 – 27k region would be seen as wave 4 and a mere bear market relief rally in a further downtrading market. Although 19.7k held and confirmed as support, this area would break upon the retest closing lower than wave 3 red on the larger timeframes, which would in turn condemn BTC to 14k.
As always leave a like and let me know your thoughts.
