Bull Bear Volume Oscillator (Idea in the making)I want you guys and gals to add in your question and comments below.
There are certain things id like to new oscillator to do for you but i want to know in what ways it can be better like if it seems to be missing something.
However. That being said, if you think its good the way it is, then by all means, let it be done and ill release it ASAP.
This is the Bull Bear Power Volume Oscillator.
It shows you TREND DIRECTIONS.
A bullish trend is not defined until you have higher highs and higher lows of the same green color .
A bearish trend is not defined until you have lower lows and lower highs of the same red color .
There is also a CENTER area which is clouded called "The Void". Any action closing in this area is null and taken as
A) Market is ranging.
and or
B) There is not enough opposing volume to move the market either way.
it is not until you get a high or low OUTSIDE of this area, where you should consider a trade.
Also, any action taking place outside of the VOID is considered a higher volatity in the market. Anything INSIDE the void is an extremely LOW volati
SOURCE - You can choose the source to be anything else that exists on your chart, for example, the RSI from a different indicator or a particular moving average you have plotted on your chart.
For those who have trouble seeing a divergence between momentum (RSI) or (Stochastic RSI) and your price action on your chart, this should paint a more clearer picture for you.
A long red column is obviously a LOW
and a long green column is obviously a High but what you should be looking for is the end of the WICK and not the color of the candle.
Again this is an early set of information for this indicator. Id like to get your feedback on it.
Elder's Force Index (EFI)
VET/USDVeChain Update
VeChain had broke out of its previous Falling Wedge Pattern but is still in a downwards channel.
VeChain failed 4x to close above its sideways Pitchfork Median Line (A,B,C).
VeChain has closed below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 day timeframe. Note that a close below the LSMA is considered a sell signal.
At the moment, VeChain has found support from its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA. A close below the BB Basis and re-test as resistance will be further confirmation of continued downwards momentum on this 1 day timeframe.
Note that VeChain is still below its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 10x daily candles that i have selected.
Note that VeChain is still below its Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) fro this charts visible range.
Volume is still low on this Binance chart and the last 4x daily Volume Bars have closed below its Volume 20 Period MA.
I have added some areas of potential support as highlighted by the horizontal Black Lines with Yellow Shading.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Negative Momentum has overtaken Positive Momentum on this 1 day timeframe because the -DI (Red Line) has crossed back above the +DI (Green Line). The -DI (Red Line) has risen to 22.81 and the +DI (Green Line) has dropped to 18.72. The trend strength is weakening with the ADX (Orange Line) dropping to 24.14 an it is still below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 28.46 and is a further sign of weakening trend strength.
Looking at the Elders Force Index (EFI) we can see that the bulls have lost a lot of strength but is sideways at the moment, note that the EFI Line (Red Line) is still above the 0 Base Line. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) has dropped below its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) which is a further sign of weakening bull strength. If the EFI (Red Line) crosses below the 0 Base Line then that means that the Bears have taken full control on this 1 day timeframe.
Looking at the STOCHASIC indicator (STOCH) we can see that momentum is downwards at the moment and note that the %K Line (Blue Line) is still below its %D Line (Orange Line). Note that the %K Line (Blue Line) is indicating that VeChain still has room to drop before becoming Oversold on this 1d timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is point downwards and is still under the 0.0 Base Line in the Negative Zone. The MACD Line (Blue LIne) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) so we need to keep an eye on this as if the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back below the Signal Line (Orange Line), as this will be a sell signal for this indicator on this 1 day timeframe.
There are a few things to look out for if you are uncertain if or when to go long, be on the lookout for a successful daily close above the LSMA, the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and The Pitchfork Median Line as well as keeping an eye out for any successful retest of those levels as support. With any rise, you need to also keep an eye on the volume as ideally you want any sustainable rise to be supported by increasing volume strength. Also be on the lookout for if/when VeChain crosses back above the upper descending trend-line of the descending channel as well as any successful retest of that previous resistance as support.
So at the moment, it looks like there will be some really good opportunities coming up to acquire more VeChain or your crypto of choice at a much cheaper price.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BTC/USD updateLet’s have a look at BTC/USD using as many indicators as i can. The purpose of my post as always is not price predication but more education on what these various indicators and squiggly lines are indicating.
As you can see on this Bitstamp 1d chart, BTC is in a Descending Triangle Pattern ‘potentially a Bearish Continuation’ as well as a Falling Wedge Pattern ‘potentially a Bullish Reversal’ on this 1d timeframe.
If we look at the Schiff Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C) we can see that BTC is still below the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line. BTC is still above its Lower Yellow Schiff Pitchfork Support Line, a close below this level will possibly result in BTC revisiting its previous low of around $39,580, a close below that will take BTC down to its 50% Trend-Based Fib Extension level at around $38,536.
At the moment BTC is fighting to get back above its 38.2% Trend-Based Fib Extension Level.
BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1d timeframe. Note that the Middle, Upper and Lower Bands are all sloping downwards and we have slight expansion of the Lower Band.
BTC is getting really close to to testing its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) as support on this 1d timeframe. If BTC closes a daily candle below the LSMA then that is potentially a sell signal.
Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud with the 20,60,120,30 settings:
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Short-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Mid-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that the momentum at the moment is downwards. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the price from 30 Periods ago, this is not good a good sign.
BTC is still well within the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud, note that the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) resistance level is pointing downwards further confirming nagative momentum. We should expect even more of a drop if the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) starts to point downwards in parallel with the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A).
Let’s take a look at 4 different Momentum Indicators and see what each are telling us on this 1d timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is pointing slightly downwards at the moment indicating slight Negative Momentum. The MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but it is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line and note that the Green Histograms are getting lighter and decreasing in size. If the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back under the Signal Line (Orange Line) then that will be a sell signal on this 1d timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 18th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Negative Momentum is still strong with the -DI (Red Line) at 27.83 and it is still above its +DI (Green Line) which has dropped to 12.05. Note that the Trend Strength is increasing with the ADX (Orange Line) rising to 36.88 and it is still above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 36.55. Note that the +DI (Green Line) has not been above the -DI (Red Line) since 15th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) we can see that accumulation has actually increased with the CMF (Green Line) rising up from -0.24 on the 5h Jan to 0.01 just above the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still above its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) indicating accumulation strength on this 1d timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) has popped out of the Negative Zone at the moment, note that the CMF has not closed in the Accumulation Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 24th Dec 2021. Look for a successful daily close above the 0.0 Base Line
If we look at the Elder Force Index (EFI) we can clearly see that the Bears are still in control because the EFI Line (Red Line) is still under the 0 Base Line indicating a Negative Elder Force. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) is also starting to point downwards. If the EFI Line (Red Line) crosses back below its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) then that may see continued and faster negative momentum for BTC on this 1d timeframe. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) has not produced a strong Positive Elder Force signal since 15th Nov 2021.
Here is a closer look at this Bitstamp 1d BTC chart:
So what does all this tell me for the medium to longterm, it tells me that for the medium to longterm unless BTC starts CLOSING daily candles ABOVE key levels like the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line on this 1d timeframe then we will see continued downwards momentum at worst or sideways momentum within a range at best. The LSMA is a key indicator to watch on this 1d timeframe, just trace back on the chart to see what may happen when the price successfully closes ABOVE or BELOW the LSMA indicator.
I hope this post helpful with your understanding of what the above indictors are indicating and i hope this is helpful with your Trading and Hodl-ing.
Bitcoin and Moving AveragesAt the moment I'm using moving averages 20-50-200 and Elder's Force Index ( EFI ) and that is working really well for me in Bitcoin and other alts so I thought I would share my observations.
The 20 Weekly Moving average
As you may notice, the 20WMA is quite significant, during the previous bull market it acted as a significant support and has been the main resistance throughout the bear market. BTC is currently just over the weekly 20MA, the second time in this whole bear market! Notice also how the price dropped in the last few days to re-test it as a support and we have bounced from it. Also, the first time we went over the 20WMA was when we re-tested the weekly 50MA as a resistance and that is the only reason it had enough strength to go over the 20WMA. So overall this is very positive for BTC but we have a lot of resistance ahead.
The 50 Weekly Moving average
On April 2 we bounced strongly off the 50WMA, then unable to go above the 20WMA we fell hard through the 50WMA without a bounce. Followed by two retest on the 28th of May 23rd of July. Since then the price has not been able to go higher than the 20WMA until in the last two days.
The 200 Weekly Moving average
This moving average is very significant in other markets and in the case of BTC we have bounced two times out of this moving average. This is the first time in this bear market that BTC has done so.
If you get the GTL indicator and still in the weekly chart, you will notice the lower band channel (in light grey here) was so perfectly the support around the 6k area for at least 5 times, until the 20WMA was too strong and a lower moving average needed to be tested.
This lower band (in light grey here) will be one of the major resistances ahead. Current trajectory of BTC indicates $4500 will be the next major resistance. Currently we have a potential iH&S on the daily chart which, if confirmed, target will be around that area of $4500-$4700 which is also where the 200 daily MA will be.
It is really positive to have not witnessed a major sell off yet, if that wasn't the case, it would mean BTC is extremely weak to even attempt to go higher where these major resistances are. In my opinion, BTC will officially be in a bull market once we have gone above the weekly 50MA.
I would be cautious though as we are not clearly ahead from the yearly downtrend line (dotted purple) and it is usual to see alts getting ahead before BTC has a major sell off.
Calming the StormUp? FOMO? Higher? MOON?!?
Down? Bear? Crash? DJIA?
There is a ton of nonsense out there guys. A ton of people trying to tell you how to trade. Whatever side you're on, I think you should hang out. Things are starting to look like there is some positivism back in BTC. If you're long here, stay long -- I don't see anything to turn you around.
If you're short (God bless you) I don't think I'd be holding a short position here...but you have some data on your side.
Being neutral is OK. Waiting for the confirmation before you jump is perfectly acceptable - there are others with you.
Lets look at it together and see how we "feel" about BTC!
Good method for trading BTCUSD on neutral and long positionsHi to everyone!
I would like to share to you an excellent method for trading BTCUSD on neutral and long positions.
I use a MA30 (moving average of 30 periods) + Elder's Bull and Bear Power indicators on H4 or D.
Buy process: When MA30 changes trend from downtrend to uptrend + candlestick is over the MA30 + both indicators are above 0 level = BUY
Sell process / Short operation: When MA30 changes trend from uptrend to downtrend + candlestick is below the MA30 + both indicators are below 0 level = SELL/SHORT
In the screenshot you have an example of buy but if you "make it yours" you will have all the backtesting with buy/sell. Enjoy it!
Already tested on BTCUSD on BTC-e and H4 and D from 2012 to today with excellent results and with LTCUSD with not good results.
Update 1: kakola has designed an indicator combining Elder's indicators with a crossover pastebin.com
Update 2: For BTC in daily works but you have to use also TA to close positions better. For LTC doesn't work properly... I will backtest more altcoins.
Update 3: NMC works very profitable also in H4.