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Election

Election Day Is D Day For Stocks & For America 2020D Day Was an Important Historical Day & It Might Be Again. Having discussed in my previous idea the stock market during election years and the fact that a crisis during an election year invariable leads to a change of president & party. I want to highlight the current trend and the D Day spot it is heading towards. Here are 8 observations (with numbers marked on the chart): 1. Stocks Bounced off the 2-year resistance line (the uptrend of new all-time highs) 2. This downtrend is heading directly for the November 3rd election date. 3. The election date and the downtrend correspond exactly to the 10-year support line for the S&P500 4. The LST Crash Detector worked well for the majority of the crash from Feb 2000 5. The LST Crash Detector signals the start of the next crash. 6. The market is moving down on heavy volume ( bearish ) 7. The Advance-Decline Ratio is weakening, despite obvious Fed buying 8. RSI confirmed the correction. The fed cannot bolster the stock market if confidence breaks. My research shows that the Fed own 2.5% of stocks. Up from 1.5%. Hypothesis: Under 3000 by election day. So what will D Day be? D ecision Day D emocrat Day D isaster Day or (in) D ependence Day You decide!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
46
Likely Bearish Scenario for the following monthsIf we're before a yet unconfirmed bearish phase, this is a likely scenario. You can trade within the bearish channel. A minimal market run-up usually always follow the days prior a new POTUS election. I think we can expect markets continue to fall whether Trump or Biden get elected. It will only stop falling until long-term Bitcoin channel bottoms are hit. This is hit or miss, don't take this a financial advice. I post to see if my prediction ability is on point or too far off. Cheers.-
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Juanjo_LP
BLNK LevelsWith a break in 50 day SMA NASDAQ:BLNK has moved to it's next important level of support. NASDAQ:TSLA promised some large advances over the next 3 years in the EV and electric power scene and has sent the whole EV sector into a short term tumble. BLNK has faced a short term downside, however in the longterm, cheaper materials, quickly advancing technology, and election year will likely make this sector a winner. Big names like NYSE:GM have began to lay groundwork for their own cost sensitive EV. The only question is when the bounce will happen. There is a lot of downside if support breaks today. The curved line is the path post correction.
NASDAQ:BLNK
by crawfordpaul
Election Day Is D Day For Stocks & For AmericaD Day Was an Important Historical Day & It Might Be Again. Having discussed in my previous idea the stock market during election years and the fact that a crisis during an election year invariable leads to a change of president & party. I want to highlight the current trend and the D Day spot it is heading towards. Here are 8 observations (with numbers marked on the chart): 1. Stocks Bounced off the 2-year resistance line (the uptrend of new all-time highs) 2. This downtrend is heading directly for the November 3rd election date. 3. The election date and the downtrend correspond exactly to the 10-year support line for the S&P500 4. The LST Crash Detector worked well for the majority of the crash from Feb 2000 5. The LST Crash Detector signals the start of the next crash. 6. The market is moving down on heavy volume (bearish) 7. The Advance-Decline Ratio is weakening, despite obvious Fed buying 8. RSI confirmed the correction. The fed cannot bolster the stock market if confidence breaks. My research shows that the Fed own 2.5% of stocks. Up from 1.5%. Hypothesis: Under 3000 by election day. So what will D Day be? D ecision Day D emocrat Day D isaster Day or (in) D ependence Day You decide!
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
8
NASDAQ 35,000! But not yet, 1st bounce to 100DMA around electionGot some lines and what not there, all tasty stuff right. Checking around various time frames, got various gaps to retest and fill and what not. Got the overbearing original trend from last 10 years or so in heavy green dashed channel. That overbearing big trend, which we broke out of, conveniently going to line up with the 100DMA, along with a support line from some previous gaps to be filled, indicated by that triangle there, should happen around election time, CONVENIENTLY naturally lol. First we gotta play out the mini downtrend which we're in now, find support (gap line), and check out ~50% retracement of previous mini bull trend, conveniently at a gap line also, as indicated by the text on the chart there. Then probably test that overbearing big 10 year trend in thick dashed green into the rectangle zone, gotta bounce around a bit (as things play out will have more indication of what this will look like), and then retest the big 10 year trend again into our rectangle on the big trend/gap/100DMA convenient as always. Then we'll be pushing for our next leg up for newer highs before some retracement. And then on to NASDAQ 35,000! ;-) #NASDAQ35000Hat
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TraderCaps
2
Look for rotation from growth to value in September-OctoberI posted this on August 27, but a moderator blocked because I had a linked to an offsite chart that the mods felt constituted advertising. (Apologies to the commenters whose comments disappeared along with the post.) I kinda wish I had reposted right away, because the post ended up being pretty prescient. (I had predicted that the S&P 500 would pull back to at least 3400 and that investors would begin to rotate to value.) But, I think it's still relevant enough for a repost. I've updated it a little in light of last week's selloff. The S&P 500 has been on a monster run since March, surging to new record highs. That's partly because massive government stimulus produced a rapid economic recovery, with consistent month-over-month economic growth and an extremely high rate of positive economic surprises. It's possible that the economic data will turn more negative in September if Congress doesn't succeed in cutting a new stimulus deal. But so far the economic data still point toward continued recovery in the back half of the year. The ECRI weekly leading index has slowed since June, but it's still trending upward. We had good jobs numbers and good PMI numbers in August. The only really worrying sign was that consumer confidence crashed last month. The effect hasn't yet shown up in any consumer spending data, however. Overall, the economic numbers militate against a broad stock market selloff in the next few months. Having said that, it's important to note two facts. First, September is traditionally the weakest month of the year for stocks. Volumes fall off with the end of the summer earnings season, and in election years there's political risk. In fact, in presidential election years when an incumbent gets ousted, there tend to be steep selloffs from February to mid-March and from September to October. Consistent with that pattern, we saw a February selloff earlier this year and a mega cap selloff in the first week of September, and the incumbent is trailing in the polls by an eight-point spread. Second, growth stocks have pretty stretched valuations right now. That's especially true of the mega cap FAANG+ stocks. Even after last week's selloff, for instance, Microsoft is still trading about 25% above its median forward P/E and 35% above its median forward P/S. Meanwhile, value stocks like Citigroup are trading at a discount of nearly the same magnitude. So while I don't expect a huge, broad correction in the next couple months given the strength of economic data, we might be due for a rotation from growth to value as seasonality puts investors a little more on the defensive. When you drill down into the economic numbers, they certainly support a rotation. Consider this week's releases of August PMI data. The manufacturing sector looked hot, with some of its highest readings in 2-3 years. Also showing strong growth were leisure and entertainment, healthcare, utilities, and financials. Meanwhile, the tech sector is still growing, but its growth slowed in August. The construction sector also shows signs of slowing down, with mortgage applications, real estate transactions, and lumber prices all down this week. Now that Russia has a working Covid-19 vaccine and the US is close to a vaccine as well, the work-from-home bubble may begin to burst. State economies are reopening, a good sign for the brick-and-mortar businesses most hurt by the pandemic; a less-good sign for e-commerce and big tech. On the chart, you can see how the equal weight S&P 500 has been oscillating in a range relative to the cap weighted S&P 500 . In the last three days, it began an upward oscillation. It still has room to run, and I expect a move upward to at least my first target. More likely, this will prove to be an even larger oscillation. I am thinking it runs to Target 2, pulls back to Target 1, and then follows through with a move up to Target 3. In this scenario, I'd look for Target 3 by maybe the end of September. The small cap : S&P 500 ratio tends to oscillate in a range as well, and it too has begun an upward oscillation (albeit with a little less conviction than equal weights). I expect the peak of the upward move in this ratio to coincide with the peak of the upward move in the equal weight : cap weighted S&P 500 ratio. Now, keep in mind that these are ratios. Just because RSP and IWM outperform relative to SPY doesn't mean that they go up in absolute terms. As with the last few days, they may instead sell off, but just fall more slowly than SPY . Personally, though, I'm bullish enough on the overall economic data that I want to maintain some market exposure right now. I'm doing so through equal weight funds and carefully chosen mid-cap value stock picking, particularly in sectors like industrials , financials, and utilities.
Editors' picks
AMEX:RSPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
21
Isilver trust -maybe we will see a dip back down to fill the gapIsilver trust -maybe we will see a dip back down to fill the gap i put in orders for $18,$19,$20,$21 I hope to get it cheep before it goes higher. -or- It continues sideways in this consolidation pattern and then moves higher. Every week it stays here at the current price I will buy at the close. NOV 3 the election will push metals higher as who ever thinks the guy who won will tank the economy and silver and gold will shine for a week or so before December.
AMEX:SLVLong
by altcoinnerd
1
XAG USD - sell to 2021This falls inline with Equities, where price will look on indexes like S&P500, Nas100, ASX200, DAX30, FTSE100 - As these fall - commodities like XAG which are a consumer product for manufacturing - the price will suffer with equity sell offs. Taking the Fibonacci from the low to the high of the move; We have our targets in play. We will close out some long positions which have been rewarding but another opportunity is here to hedge and be rewarded on the sells. To see our breakdowns of the Indexes - see the links as well as the long term Silver buy opportunities. This trade a cycled seasonality trade - note the volatility here from the technical aspects around on the chart. Use the monthly and weekly for a clearer picture. Many thanks for those who follow us and continue your support through likes, comments and follows. We have now surpassed our 100 follower milestone. We will continue to share our work. Appreciate any private messages or comments in which provide substance of views agreeing or opposing. Remember to manage your trade. This is key to success. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by LupaCapital
MARKET COMPLETING WAVE 3Based on Elliot wave theory, the ENTIRE market is nearing its completion of the 3rd wave. This coincidentally will happen just as the IWM is completing its full 100% retrace from lows which also follows elliot wave rules. The range to look for is $360-$365 with the mean target being $362. Everyone knows the entire market is beyond parabolic and way overvalued. there is not a single company that is not trading at a "fair value." eventually the rug will be pulled. Once wave 3 starts, we head into wave 4 which should bring us down to a minimum of $250 with a possible extension down to $200. This wave 4 will most likely follow the pattern of wave 2 with roughly 10 years of sideways consolidation. Meaning it can be a complex wave 4 having swings from $360 to $200. Once wave 4 is complete, we head into wave 5 which should easily carry SPY to above 500.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ncontelmo
1
ELECTION DROPI changed my price target on SPY to ~$367. Yesterdays price action was way too strong into the close for this market to drop yet. Nobody cared about Powells speech. Nobody cares about EVERY stock in the market being overvalued by a minimum of 2x. We are continuing the ride up the wall of worry. IWM still has not completed its 100% retrace which WILL happen. I am noticing stocks all over the board developing extremely bearish patterns and parabolic moves to the moon. Post election, if trump wins, I anticipate the market to continue this ridiculous pattern. Biden wins, i expect a minimum of a 20% drop in the market.
AMEX:SPY
by ncontelmo
SPY TOP ~$350I know I will get a lot of flack for this, but SPY is going to make one last crazy run to $350. This will happen because of TSLA, AMD, AMZN, APPL, NVDA all pushing up the market even more to some un heard of levels. This also gives IWM to the opportunity to complete its 100% retrace from lows which will then complete the rules of elliot wave theory. After that time, we will have major FANGs with P/E that do not even remotely make sense. Not a single company in this entire market is deserving of its current valuation (we are in a different world however, so it is what it is). Nearing the turmoil that is the election, the media will start pumping that Trump has about a 2% chance of winning. This is exactly what they did last time. Biden is the worst candidate for the stock market and this tension should cause a break of our current trend, sending us back to roughly $300. Trump WILL win the election and the bullishness should continue. IWM - $170 AMZN - $3800 TSLA - $2400 AMD - $111 AAPL - $600
AMEX:SPY
by ncontelmo
GOLD-INAUGURATION DAY 2021 TARGET 2800$|SUPER-CYCLE TARGET 3600Monthly chart that's quite self-explanatory. There's no reason that the current trend that's lasted 20 years would suddenly break, unless the FED start raising rates which would absolutely obliterate the already crumbling economy. Compared to 2008-2009, money growth has surged almost twice as fast fred.stlouisfed.org Simply going off from the previous extension that occurred post 08' where gold rose close to 2000 by 2011, assuming such an extension(+85% from the previous peak) occurs, we should expect a top in the range of 3500-4000$. The near term target by inauguration day 2021, should be in the range of 2450-2800, depending on the amount of stimulus expected to be announced by the end of August, and of course who'd win the 2020 US election. Interesting relationship: should expect a strong correlation of gold and US big tech as long as handouts keep on flowing and inflation is below ~6%. This may change, if the tax code is amended ~2022-2023. It's been some time since I last shared an investing idea. Open to comments,ideas, discussions. Thank you for following. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
ABBV buy the dip ahead of pharma seasonAbbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume along with the rest of the sector. And then in August, a period of seasonal pharmaceutical strength begins. In The Stock Traders' Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch makes an extensive study of seasonal stock market performance by sectors. His third-best-performing seasonal trade by average 10-year return (16.8%) is to go long biotech from early August to early March. I believe that's because this is the busy season for FDA drug application reviews. The pharma sector does have an unusual level of political risk this year. Democrats have traditionally been hard on the pharma sector, and they look poised this year for a sweep. If the polls remain strongly blue, then we might see pharma underperform this year. That said, I think a lot of the political risk is already priced in. Whereas most of the stocks I look at are at the very top of their 3-year valuation range in terms of forward earnings and sales, pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie and Merck are trading in the bottom quartile of their 3-year valuation range. With forward PEG ratio around 2, forward PSG ratio around 0.5, and a whopping 5% dividend, Abbvie looks really attractively valued. I've been doing a lot of deal-hunting lately, and this is one of the only stocks I've seen with both a strong growth story and a valuation I really like. The analysts and options traders like it too; Abbvie has a 9.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score, and near-dated options positions are heavily skewed toward calls.
NYSE:ABBVLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1