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Election

Short NZDCAD - Political Overhang (Late Entry)NZD has been weak since the stalemate election. I looked at this pair yesterday and thought I wanted to go short it given CAD is a strong currency and generally there are few major news for it this week (BOC Governor Poloz's speech tomorrow and the GDP on Friday). NZD in my opinion can remain surpressed as the NZ politician scramble to form a coalition government. Market reaction so far is if National wins NZD up and if Labour wins NZD down. It's all in the hand of New Zealand First's leader to choose which side he wants to take on. My guess and probably the market at the moment is he is going to side with Labour and thus a weak NZD. But almost anything can happen with this kind of election outcome thus the reason I'm not so keen to take on this trade. Nevertheless, I believe uncertainty will dampen demand for NZD thus weaken the currency in short term, I would trade this but with 1/2 the usual size. Technical wise, I missed the entry as it rebound to 0.9 level. I'll use that level as SL now and aim to hit the 0.89 level. This trade may need more support from CAD good news.
Short
by vietbach1990
UK Elections and its Aftermath Market DirectionAs many investors are preparing for the UK General Election we see very little indication of that in terms of pre-election market price moves. On April 8th 2017 the UK Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a General Election to be held on June 8th 2017. Since then we have seen the pound rally to new highs in 2017 and surely things seemed to look a bit brighter. However, recent few weeks have had quite an impact on the pound, as noted in my analysis in march, growing inflation and a lack of growth in wage growth will slowly start showing its signs of concerns in the summer and exactly the reason why the pound had a 100point selloff, which was short lived as bullish sentiment had taken over again. But not only fundamental uncertainties, the pound faces political instability, Prime Minister May has seen Jeremy Corbyn to be a much greater competition than she and many analysts had expected him to be. Along with the fundamental and political issues that the UK is facing, the recent terror attacks have also had a fair amount of impact on the upcoming election. May’s opposition Corbyn has called the Prime Minister to resign for cutting down on police forces patrolling the UK streets by 20,000 since 2010. Theresa May has faced some backlash over the police cuts, however, the swift reaction from armed police forces on Saturdays terror attacks that killed 7 and left about 20 people in critical condition, had softened the tone of the backlash since the perpetrators were shot within 8 minutes of the first call to the emergency services. The swift and quick reaction from the police forces had shown that despite cutbacks the effectiveness of the British police is still intact however, the argument is that the location of the incident had helped with the armed police force to arrive promptly, had it been in a less popular region of the city we could have seen a much delayed action from the police. How is the pound affected going into the election? The market is comfortable with Theresa May’s party winning the election, which would see the pound rallying to possible new highs of this year. There is a significant expectation that there would be a trade agreement that will be suitable for both the UK and the EU or no deal in the case if the agreement does not suit the UK’s demands, May has been known to say “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal” and that is highly understandable regardless of someone’s political views. Despite a possible surprise result in the election, the pound has been very resisting and has found some technical support. On the day of the election I expect the price to become very volatile as results slowly start coming through, we would see the price hit price extremes at monthly Pivot Support and Resistance levels. The support level (circled red) comes in at 1.262 where we have some technical confluence from the Monthly S2, along with Weekly S3 Pivot level and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. These 3 technical confluence levels are all within 20pips of each other and I expect the price to react at those levels should it reach the given support and resistance areas. I am expecting some resistance (circled blue) at the price levels between the 1.34 -1.35 where there is technical price action resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement level along with the Monthly R4 Pivot. Due to TradingView's word limit please click the link below to continue reading the rest of my analysis on my blog, make sure you don't miss the key points of the main 2 parties: academy.forexwhizz.com
by ovisbucks
Medium-term Bearish Gartley on EURGBP (250 pips)Hey all, I've mapped out the potential completion of a bearish bat pattern that should signal a reversal for this particular pair. I'm setting the entry just beneath the 0.786 level of the larger Fibonacci retracement so that the movement can be confirmed to be reversing. Following the entry, we have 3 potential target areas that the price might be headed towards: The first is derived from a strong monthly S&R level and the 0.236 level of the smaller Fibonacci retracement. The second area is the one that I'm hoping the price will hit simply because it combines both local Fibonacci retracements as well as a solid enough daily S&R level. The third target area is a bit of a long-shot but it does feature several significant points of interest so I'm including it here as a potential bonus. Setup Entry: 0.86987 TP: 0.86639, 0.85562, 0.84880 SL: 0.87192 (This might be a little too tight for some people, so you can just set it above the D leg completion if you want)
Short
by Cohiba93
The french election - how will the markerts react?The french election. Who will win? Macron or Le Pen? What does Le pen want with France? Le pen is very anti EU (Europian Union), she believe that France should leave the EU. But why this? She is the partys "Front National" presidential candidate. This polical party supports nationalism, which (in this situation) means that the focus should be on France only, with closed borders and no Europian Union. If Le Pen wins the election, then France's membership in the EU may be over. Since France is a huge economy in the EU, it would affect the Union a lot. Macron is not anti EU. He thinks France should stay in the EU. He is the partys "En Marche!" presidantial candidate. You could call him social-liberal. All in all, Macron sees positive at the EU. Which is positive for the Euro, since the chance of france leaving the EU is very low, if he gets elected. So how will the markets react to all this polical stuff? Well it is always hard to predict with a 100% certainty how the markets will react. The Euro has already reacted positive, since most people say that Macron will win. Many experts also predict that Macron will win. So the inverstors has become postive about the EURO. However, this is the same "experts" that said Hillary Clinton would win the election in the US. But what happened? Donald Trump smashed her. These experts also said that the UK would vote no to Brexit. What happened? They voted yes. So lets say that Le pen wins. Then all this positivity we have seen in the euro the past weeks will be gone. And all the bulls will be trapped. It would most likely make the euro COLLAPSE. Summed up. Macron victory= Most likely positive euor Le pen victory= Most likely a collapse in the euro
by RandomDane
Pre Marlet Euro jumps to 5½-month high after exit pollsHow influential will the French election be on markets? How influential will the French election be on markets? 8 Hours Ago | 02:29 The euro reached a five-and-a-half month high against the dollar when markets opened Sunday evening as exit polls in the French presidential election indicated a victory for centrist Macron. The single currency jumped to $1.09395 in early trade after having closed at $1.0723, according to Reuters data. This was a 2 percent jump on the day. This comes after exit polls showed the independent candidate Emmanuel Macron gathered most of the votes in the first round of the French election. The same polls indicated that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen placed second in the first vote
by Jadtecnic
How to trade the first round of the French presidential electionTwo days before the first round of the presidential elections (23 April), the uncertainty remains high. Take the opportunity of a risk-friendly scenario or a strong risk aversion scenario by pending orders of both sides. The nightmare scenario for the market would be a second round between Far-left and Far-right candidates. Trade the EUR against JPY, considering the classical status of the yen as a safe-haven currency. For more information, visit fxparadigm.com
Long
by FXParadigm
38.2% fib, major eur/gbp support soon to be broken.OVERALL VIEW: SHORT. The pair moves in long deep waves. Failing to break the previous highs, we've seen the market begin a new downward cycle of lower highs, held only by 38.2" fib on the weekly chart. This acted as resistance straight after the Brexit rally, and has since been tested three times and held as support. Demand is doing well to hold this favored level. With the pair breaking outside its trend channel we see the market currently toying around the 0.8380 level. This week news have been focused on Mays' shock June poll announcement and French elections. A Le Pen Victory could see the euro fall, Whilst a Macron victory could be good for euro strength. In any case a break of the 38.2% fib and further confirmation of a break of 0.8343 should encourage fresh supply to give the pair a comfortable slide to 0.80**
Short
by Sezer
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