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Election

The french election - how will the markerts react?The french election. Who will win? Macron or Le Pen? What does Le pen want with France? Le pen is very anti EU (Europian Union), she believe that France should leave the EU. But why this? She is the partys "Front National" presidential candidate. This polical party supports nationalism, which (in this situation) means that the focus should be on France only, with closed borders and no Europian Union. If Le Pen wins the election, then France's membership in the EU may be over. Since France is a huge economy in the EU, it would affect the Union a lot. Macron is not anti EU. He thinks France should stay in the EU. He is the partys "En Marche!" presidantial candidate. You could call him social-liberal. All in all, Macron sees positive at the EU. Which is positive for the Euro, since the chance of france leaving the EU is very low, if he gets elected. So how will the markets react to all this polical stuff? Well it is always hard to predict with a 100% certainty how the markets will react. The Euro has already reacted positive, since most people say that Macron will win. Many experts also predict that Macron will win. So the inverstors has become postive about the EURO. However, this is the same "experts" that said Hillary Clinton would win the election in the US. But what happened? Donald Trump smashed her. These experts also said that the UK would vote no to Brexit. What happened? They voted yes. So lets say that Le pen wins. Then all this positivity we have seen in the euro the past weeks will be gone. And all the bulls will be trapped. It would most likely make the euro COLLAPSE. Summed up. Macron victory= Most likely positive euor Le pen victory= Most likely a collapse in the euro
by RandomDane
Pre Marlet Euro jumps to 5½-month high after exit pollsHow influential will the French election be on markets? How influential will the French election be on markets? 8 Hours Ago | 02:29 The euro reached a five-and-a-half month high against the dollar when markets opened Sunday evening as exit polls in the French presidential election indicated a victory for centrist Macron. The single currency jumped to $1.09395 in early trade after having closed at $1.0723, according to Reuters data. This was a 2 percent jump on the day. This comes after exit polls showed the independent candidate Emmanuel Macron gathered most of the votes in the first round of the French election. The same polls indicated that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen placed second in the first vote
by Jadtecnic
How to trade the first round of the French presidential electionTwo days before the first round of the presidential elections (23 April), the uncertainty remains high. Take the opportunity of a risk-friendly scenario or a strong risk aversion scenario by pending orders of both sides. The nightmare scenario for the market would be a second round between Far-left and Far-right candidates. Trade the EUR against JPY, considering the classical status of the yen as a safe-haven currency. For more information, visit fxparadigm.com
Long
by FXParadigm
38.2% fib, major eur/gbp support soon to be broken.OVERALL VIEW: SHORT. The pair moves in long deep waves. Failing to break the previous highs, we've seen the market begin a new downward cycle of lower highs, held only by 38.2" fib on the weekly chart. This acted as resistance straight after the Brexit rally, and has since been tested three times and held as support. Demand is doing well to hold this favored level. With the pair breaking outside its trend channel we see the market currently toying around the 0.8380 level. This week news have been focused on Mays' shock June poll announcement and French elections. A Le Pen Victory could see the euro fall, Whilst a Macron victory could be good for euro strength. In any case a break of the 38.2% fib and further confirmation of a break of 0.8343 should encourage fresh supply to give the pair a comfortable slide to 0.80**
Short
by Sezer
1
EURGBP Range Trade on Election UncertaintyEURGBP at the end of the week sitting at the bottom of a well tested range. For the next 10 days, markets are likely to be preoccupied with Euro uncertainty regarding the French elections, and so are unlikely to see a significant BreakOut until after the 23rd, and potentially the 7th of May. I plan on buying at around .8445, with a first profit take at the top of range (.8825), and 2nd at (.9) should we see a bullish BO. SL behind key support at .825 GL and Happy Easter!
Long
by Trade_Wind
EURUSD: A good hedge, and a valid tradeI have a powerful signal here, bought breaking yesterday's high today. I had given up on Euro longs, and sold in disgust, which is a strong 'self-contrarian' signal. Whenever it happens, take heed, and act with haste after the market breaks a previous day high or low, since your exit. If you don't take the trade back, you will probably face one of those times when you exit a trade at the bottom, to then see the trade go your way without you...so, why face that irritating feeling? Fade yourself, when we're emotional, we're a reflection of the 'herd'. Fascinating huh? Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
working the 12000 mark The dax has been retesting the 12000 mark in the wawe of usd growth following trump speach before the congress . That the Pivot point beetween making new high and confirming the uptrend or it s going to range for a while and then going back down . Seeing the dax working this level would make belive that something its going to decide for it's faith , either way , anyway for our type of analisis beetwen market , these market is interesesting , seing how it open will be very interessing . IF the market decide to range , it would for very nice scalping type of market , for scalping and intraday directional strategie . if you want to come and talk to us about dax or other market we trading or publish analsys just don't hesitate to come and visit us over our group : www.facebook.com
OANDA:DE30EUR
by jeanbaptiste.laurent.94
nice short headed , or some political long before french electioe/u had very nice run friday afternoon during new york session , and gain more than a 100 pips wich is volatility we have not been seeing for some time . in a near future ( 58 days and counting ) first round of french election is going to weight a lot on the euro and might be the catalysis we all where looking for some time , but until then we very much could be looking to a strenghting of the euro . or a range beetween 1.04 1.07 will wee how it open on sunday . But seeing the burst on gold on friday i could easyly see at least a run to the 1.0662 1.07 area . But will see on sunday how it goes .
Short
by jeanbaptiste.laurent.94
DAX | DAILY, D1 | BUY follow the LONG opening and make LONG-BUY* * * news from today * * * IT COMES A NEW ELECTED PRÄSIDENT (possible favorite Mr. Steinmeier) FOR GERMANY. check the LONG-BUY opening betweeen the lines above and fallow all day long an upward trend. so that just make a BUY-order. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATTENTION! this is a test-analysis on the demo-account. please don't try it on your real account.
TVC:DEU40Long
by VFXtrade
1
2017 FORECAST S&P500 INDEX DAILY, by Tim West2017 FORECAST - S&P500 INDEX - Daily Here we are again: January of a new year. The election is behind us. And the recount is behind us too. So many bombs dropped over the last year, both real bombs and word-bombs by Presidential candidates. The word-bombs seem to get all of the attention with Trump winning the "best word bomber" last year by Time Magazine as the "most noteworthy" person in the world. Now with that out of the way, once again we have the same variables facing the market: plenty of headwinds and tailwinds. See 2016 list, to your left in blue. I like to start with an understanding of what "expectations are out there" and I do that with the Wall Street consensus for the Year-End S&P500. I added that with the RED BOX at the top which is around the 2300-2400 range. There are some above and below that range, but that gets 90% of the estimates. The 2085 level was the launching point of this latest advance from before the election and that level was retested in the hours after the election results indicated Trump the winner. The market action up until that point, together with the lowest-ever-50-week readings of AAII Investor Sentiment Readings indicated to me that we had COMPLETED a bear market at this point in time. I view a bull market as 20%+ so a move to $2500 in the S&P would accomplish this technical feat. With plenty of skepticism, fears aplenty, high cash, massive retail selling of equities and mutual funds, high short positions, and "no bear market in prices" suggests very strongly that a 20% rally from 2085 is likely, and possible. What I foresee happening in the first half of the year is the time window for Trump to get the most on the table for pro-growth, tax-cut, red-tape-cutting, Obama-care bashing, "Make America Great Again" pushes for change in the House and Senate. I hope we see Reagan-like Investment Tax Credits, Cuts in capital gains tax rates for young and small investors to get investment capital moving and to get banks lending again. The second half of the year, especially towards the end of the year, I foresee a correction in prices back to the start of the year on signs that there is friction in the Republican Party and fears to make bold and broad changes to the tax laws and concerns about the credit rating and borrowing capacity of the US. The Democrats will be stalling with threats to shut down the Gov't and doing everything in their power to stop the changes Trump is pushing through. Tim West January 12, 2017 10:54PM EST I made this chart over a week ago and decided to keep ALL OF THE TEXT on the graph from past year's to show you that I didn't change anything. You can review the previous year's graphs from the links below for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013. I must say the pressure is much higher after I have done four years in a row that are very close to what has happened. I think, in hindsight now, that it was easier because we had a 2nd term President who didn't change much in his view of the markets, economics, or philosophy. Whatever does happen, I wish you peace and harmony as you make your investment decisions throughout the year. Imagine different scenarios in advance and decide what you will do, in advance, so you can be better prepared when change does happen. Stay in touch throughout the year by clicking "follow" on this chart to get important updates. In the past two years I was able to catch the major bottoms and tops throughout the year.
SP:SPXLong
by timwest
24