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Election

Must-Watch Events in U.S. Politics This Week With six weeks until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%, according to a new NBC poll. Harris' favorability has surged 16 points since July, the largest increase for any candidate since George W. Bush after 9/11. Harris is set to unveil new economic proposals on Thursday, expanding her vision for an “opportunity economy.” Meanwhile, Trump is now urging early and mail-in voting, despite previously blaming it for election fraud. As for a second debate, Harris has accepted an invitation for October 23, but Trump seems reluctant after their first encounter. Additionally, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a stopgap funding bill to prevent a government shutdown before the Sept. 30 deadline, with a vote expected on Wednesday.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
22/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68,476.68 Last weeks low: $60,656.67 Midpoint: 64,566.67 On my last weekly outlook I commented on the nature of the weeks rally and how it began at weekly low and finished the week at weekly high. The same thing happened almost identically this time with a weekly low of just above $60,000 rallying +13% to reach just shy of the '21 ATH at $69,000. The recent run of price increases comes after the German Government sold over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of BTC pushing price down. Having now run out of BTC to sell the momentum has shifted and the net inflows have now been consistent ever since. With the presidential race now in the business end of the race, Trump is scheduled to be at the Bitcoin Conference in the 27th this month and there is There is "speculation that Trump may announce the establishment of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve". A pro crypto president of the USA would no doubt bring great interest and innovation to the country in the future but also brings about a new element of FOMO to sideliners and doubters of crypto's legitimacy. I can only predict this is a good thing between now and November at the very least ramping up exponentially as we nearer the election date. This week it's all eyes on the Bitcoin Conference, and also monitoring the progress of the Ethereum ETF. BTC has lead the recovery charge with altcoins still lagging a little behind as focus has once again shifted back towards the majors after a heavy sell off.
by ProR35
Is Biden quitting the biggest market risk right now? Bloomberg reports that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending President Biden a letter urging him to withdraw from the race. The New York Times confirms this, citing a key Biden ally who reveals that the president understands the fragility of his candidacy following a lackluster debate performance last week. Despite the speculation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has dismissed these claims as "absolutely false," asserting, "The president said it is absolutely false. That is coming directly from him." President Biden, at least publicly, remains steadfast, confident in his mental sharpness, and in another concerning sign, seemingly perplexed by the ongoing doubts about his capabilities. However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights one in three Democrats think Biden should step aside. When potential replacements were considered, former First Lady Michelle Obama strangely emerged as the leading candidate in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, with a 50% to 39% lead. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by a narrow margin of 42% to 43%, indicating her competitive standing is comparable to Biden's. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call for Biden's withdrawal, expressing hope that the president will make the "painful and difficult decision" to step down.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD rises despite France’s vote for the rightThe euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. The euro is at its highest level since June 14. France went to the polls on Sunday, with voter turnout at a four-decade high. The vote was a stinging rebuke for French President Emmanuel Macron, whose Ensemble alliance came in a distant third in the three-way race. The big winner was the far-right, as Marie Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party won 33% of the vote and will likely be the largest party in the next parliament. If the RN doesn’t win a majority, that could set the stage for a hung parliament and political uncertainty, which would not bode well for the French financial markets and the euro. Interestingly, the French markets and the euro are in positive territory on Monday, as investors appear relieved that the RN might miss out on a majority in parliament. The relief on investors’ faces today could be quickly erased, however, if the NR has a strong showing in the second round of voting, which takes place on July 7. Market focus will shift from France and focus on German inflation, which will be released later today. German CPI is expected to dip to 2.3% y/y in June, compared to 2.4% in May. Monthly, the market estimate stands at 0.2%, following 0.1% gain in May. Eurozone inflation follows on Tuesday with an estimate of 2.8% y/y in June, compared to 2.9% a month earlier. EUR/USD Technical EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0752. Above, there is resistance at 1.0790 1.0709 and 1.0671 are the next support lines
by OANDA
Independence from the Tories: A new July 4th As the UK approaches the July 4th general election, the Labour Party is set to end the Conservatives' 14-year rule. According to the latest BBC poll tracker, Labour leads by 20 points, with 41% of the vote, while the Conservatives hold 21%, and Reform UK is at 16%. Labour's pledge to improve EU relations could strengthen the pound by reducing Brexit-induced trade frictions. This potential easing could boost the UK economy and support sterling. The pound has remained relatively stable ahead of the election, with the GBP/USD hovering near the 1.2700 mark. Despite the broad expectation of a Labour victory, traders appear cautious. A decisive break above this level could see buyers gaining control. Given Labour's substantial lead in the polls, it is plausible that the market has already priced in a Labour victory to a significant extent. However, the actual impact on sterling and broader market sentiment will depend on the clarity and execution of Labour's economic policies post-election.
by BlackBull_Markets
Political Sway: Biden, Trump, Macron, and Mbappé Investors are bracing for a series of political events in the coming weeks, beginning with Thursday’s debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican Nominee Donald Trump, and extending to elections in France and the United Kingdom. Thursday's debate is expected to offer contrasts between Biden's and Trump's economic visions (in-between personal jabs). Trump has hinted at his debate strategy, focusing on inflation and criticizing Biden's economic record. "Under Biden, the economy is in ruins," Trump declared on Saturday. His economic proposals include imposing strict tariffs on imports, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and extending the tax cuts from his first term. Economists warn these measures could stoke inflation further if implemented. While Biden may avoid discussing the ballooning federal deficit, Trump is expected to bring it into the spotlight, despite the national debt increasing by 25% during his presidency. At the same time, EUR/USD traders need to stay alert as the French elections approach. The final week before the vote could bring significant shifts in market sentiment, driven by polling data. Current projections show the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies leading with 35.5% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is trailing in third place with 19.5%. Interestingly, football star Kylian Mbappé on Sunday urged the French public to vote against "extremes," a statement interpreted as an endorsement for Macron. Mbappé, currently the highest-paid footballer in the world, could influence younger voters and add an unpredictable element to the election's outcome.
by BlackBull_Markets
Are #Stocks expensive? No measured against M2 money supplyThe 2000 Top was still the "real" peak of the US stock market Built obviously on the expectation that the internet would change the world and teh global economy. This highlights how the market foresees the future and how market participants are forward looking. The #DownJones index is still 50% down form that peak on this chart you can multiple chart patterns tat have played out previously HVF's, double top, head & shoulder tops, and inv H&S bottoms currently in a 22 year continuation inv head and shoulders which is still in progress my stance is Top in April/May 24 .... downdraft into the election and a run up for 2/3 years into the Giga Uber TOP
FRED:WM2NSLong
by BallaJi
2
TLRY - 420 to the MOON or is CANNABIS FINISHED?This chart is pretty explanatory, and probably doesn't require much explanation. I'm bullish on this stock. I'm 90% sure Dems push cannabis legislation through as it's a bipartisan issue for the most part, and will look good for both parties pre election. Starts with credit cards and banks, imo. Don't follow green line path as gospel, it is often incorrect, but helps me plan a preliminary "ideal" path based on indicators. It helps with backtracking predictions, and keeping emotions in check, as you know what "past you" saw. I like 1.89 as a big time buy target, but it could easily go lower. Relevant trends and targets marked. Watch out, current trends are showing the run-up into earnings, which would allow for a drop. Does this mean anything? Not always, but it's good to note. current bullish price movement doesn't have to end if rejection trends and targets start to break and confirm. Good luck!
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by nicktussing77
21
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View- 26-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24 Nifty closed at 22096 (22023) and touched low & high of 21710 & 22175 RSI and stochastics levels have improved last week (51% & 47% Respectively). Market closed almost flat last week Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome. Nifty IT 35188 (37517) -To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000. Nifty bank 46863 (46591) -To continue buy on dips. Nifty Bank last week dipped. initial Target 48618 ( all time high). if it cross this resistance decisively. support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips. Nifty 22096- Short & medium term (Neutral) Nifty still in undecisive state at present and will be rangebound. As mentioned for the past three weeks, Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) is near to 22819 which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak. nifty next target 22819 (Fib Resistance)/23000. Short term Support - 21900, 21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart. Medium term Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance) Long Term Market expected range bound between 23000 to 18800 expected in 2024. Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Comments : Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend sustaining the market above 22000. Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Election outcome analysis i have prepared is available in website in my profile and my X account karthik_ss Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support. Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000. Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Nifty Bank ( 46554) tried to move above key resistances. Continue to buy on dips. As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
Buy Lux Industries 40% returnLux Industries chart if back-tested shows that it has traded in a range between two price points 1123 and 1559. The range is around 40% wide and today the stock has touched the bottom of the range. After touching this price it has touched 1559 in a short period of time in the past for a total 4 times. The years in which the range was covered are 2017, 2019,2020 and the latest being 2023 itself. In 2023 it made a bottom at this price and then bounced back. History will repeat itself and the stock will again touch 1559 very soon. Hope you like my analysis. Please do your own analysis before investing. Do like and follow. Thank you.
NSE:LUXINDLong
by ronak16125
NZD/USD Targets for Election NightFancy selling into uncertainty? This could be a scenario for the NZD/USD in the lead up to the election in New Zealand which is way too close to call for either major political party right now (Labour vs National). Voting has been open all week and closes October 14, with the winner called the same day (but after the close of this trading week). Polls have the right leaning National party carving out a small lead at the moment, but some hiccups have seen this lead shrink in the past week (e.g., The were caught knowingly lying about amount the average person would receive from their promised tax cuts) National has also promised to remove the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's mandate to consider employment in its interest rate decisions, which could shift the central bank to a more dovish bias (as current strong employment figures in NZ are perhaps heightening its proclivity to hike). Combine this with the general uncertainty induced by the election, and some downside targets for the NZD/USD could be charted in anticipation for election night and the Monday following the results. The recent touch point for the 0.5861 is the most obvious target that the pair will have to overcome if it wants to seek lower targets. This would also open up new 2023 lows, with 2022 benchmarks helping set possible targets.
by BlackBull_Markets