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Election

USD/CHF analysis - "Safe Haven war"Dear traders! USD and CHF are said to be some of the bests safe-haven assets, that retain value over downturn or "bad" news. Here is my idea on the USD/CHF pair over the coming period of time. Technical analysis: As we can see USD/CHF pair has been in a downtrend for a long time with more consolidated movement over the last periods. However, since mid-March, we can observe a continuation of the downtrend, at the same time indicating the power of CHF over USD. In December price was consolidating around a key S/R level of approx. 0.8918 having no power to break it with multiple tests. Recently the price came to the trendline, testing it, however not breaking it. Fundamental analysis: As you may already know bot USD and CHF are the most common forex safe-haven assets that people turn to in times of uncertainty or downturn of the economy. Right now besides Covid19 news, we have matters of inflation and US elections that seem to be on the clear path at last. Tomorrow we get an API report, which may influence the USD. Be patient, watch carefully the area marked by the red ellipse, whether it will break the upper long term trendline or short term lower one. Such movement may suggest future price changes. Most importantly - be patient Feel free to comment, give your thoughts. Would appreciate it if you like it! (my first published analysis :) ) Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Be aware that only you are responsible for your trades. Trade safe and keep in mind the risk!
by AGAdam
DXY going up fandumental : Since the beginning of the Corona pandemic, the dollar index has been in a bearish channel and has returned to its support level 3 years ago. With the formation of Biden's democratic government and the Democrats' monetary policies and their use of economic pyramids, we expect the dollar index to rise. technical: In daily timeframe, we see the indicator with the support level and the return, which can be seen with divergence in rsi and macd indicators. It can be concluded that we expect a rise for the dollar in the coming days
TVC:DXYLong
by majesty-investment
Gold - Taking a run at $2,000?Gold has had a great start to the year after enduring a difficult final few months of 2020. The yellow metal smashed through $1,900 and hasn't looked back, seeing some resistance around $1,950 but not pulling back in any significant way. The backdrop of a softer dollar is continuing to be supportive for gold, although that could be tested in the coming days depending on the outcome of the Senate re-run election in Georgia. Should the Democrats take effective control of the Senate, it could be bullish for the greenback and stall gold's progress. From a technical perspective, gold is testing an interesting level around the 61.8% fib of the summer highs to November lows. This coincides roughly with the top of the rising channel on the four hour chart which could make it an interesting level of resistance in the near term. A break above here could open the doors to a run at $2,000 which would be very interesting, indeed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
2
Trump's Odds Drop to 33%, Easy 3x in 1 Month?Trump was diagnosed with COVID last night. His betting odds have dropped to under 34% which means you could easily triple your money if he wins. Chances are high (99%) that he will survive the infection. And chances are also very high that he will win the election. Many will say "look at the polls!" but as we know from the 2016 Wikileaks and election results, the polls are manipulated by oversampling democrats, and the mainstream media plays right into this bias: "I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling" wikileaks.org "Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win." NYT. November 8th, 2016. "Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 71.4%. Donald Trump 28.6%." FiveThirtyEight. November 8th, 2016 "Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning" Reuters. November 7th, 2016. "In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent)" Fox News. November 5th, 2016. "Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, a less aggressive assumption (sigma=1.1%) leads to a Clinton win probability of 95%." Princeton University. November 6th, 2016 Obviously the mainstream media polls and election forecasting methodologies cannot be trusted, and are being heavily manipulated by the center-right and the left. I would bet that Trump's chances of winning are very high, and that his base is quite fired up for him. According to a recent Gallup poll 94% of republicans support the president and 39% of independents support him as well. According a recent ABC News poll, only 86% of democrats have a favorable view of Biden (independent results not available). From what I've personally seen it seems most democrats are only voting for Biden because he's "not Trump," which doesn't give him much momentum. Had the democrats nominated a far-left candidate like Bernie Sanders, the results would be much harder to predict. I think the democrats will become radicalized after this election and nominate a far-left candidate, and they will likely win the 2024 election. For now, the radicalized far-right Trump has much more momentum than the middle-of-the-road center-left Biden, and there's a very good risk/reward ratio on this bet. Also there's a chance Trump's betting odds get even lower the closer we get to the election, like it did in 2016, so it might be a good idea to save some money for that. There's obviously no guarantee that Trump will win but the risk to reward here seems very good. (BTW this is not a political statement, just simple observation. I will be voting for the Libertarian Party candidate. I don't support either authoritarian party.)
TLong
by Intuit
S&P 500 Yearly Forecast (Nov 2020 - Nov 2021)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (November 18th 2020 through November 2021) Low: 3010.3 points High: 3876.6 - 3900 points There could be some great buying opportunities ahead of us in the coming year, can't wait to see what 2021 brings us. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
TVC:SPXShort
by Hambooger
5
GBP JPY - Shorts still in playHey traders, how are you going? Here is our take on GBP JPY - a long term view. The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. it depends on your outlook. Why are we selling? The reason is - over exposed buyers, the GBP is very week right now Seeking trade deals and the weakening of the GBP is clever for the trade balance and promoting attraction for investment in the long run. Price is expensive and volatile - during the election and huge interest in the previous months up to September. The election is coming closer <45 days. The S&P500 and NAS100, FTSE are not shown here but use reference for our previous ideas to show where price has reached our over exposed markers. Entering a bear market - the Yen will see sudden surging in strength which is why our outlook is to March lows. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
AAL Still Choppy NASDAQ:AAL has been moving between 11.30 and 14.13 since earlier this Summer. Election time is truly the moment of truth. With a second stimulus bill in the works the main question that remains is when? Higher lows on the CMF shows that initiative for buyers is clearly there, comparatively to other dips it has formed a similar pattern. The earning beat is positive for AAL however furloughs have been hard on the workers and the company is clearly struggling. There is reason to believe that airlines will recover nicely with stimilus as we have seen recovery across the board with House elections more clear. Once stimulus hits there will likely be another big buyback likely followed by a dump. The area I would look to hold AAL until is around 19.38, I have enough reason to believe that area will be liquid for the stock and create a pullback. A strong push above this line (likely a result of an innovation of product or vaccine development) could lead to the line serving as a moderate support until we have more information. AAL is a strong buy above 12.05. These lines were drawn on historical price action, however it is important to note since the initial COVID-19 low and swing high the Fib levels have matched up nicely with these levels
NASDAQ:AAL
by crawfordpaul
Rotation from growth to value: updateAt the beginning of September I forecasted that we would likely see some rotation from growth to value in the next few months, and I laid out three target prices for the RSP (equal weight) to SPY (cap weight) ratio. This ratio has continued to behave fairly predictably, oscillating within its seven-month range and making fairly perfect touches of the target levels. Lately we've been making higher lows in this ratio, which suggests that it might be working itself up to an upside breakout. We've obviously achieved my first price target several times and tested the second target twice. the most recent test of Target 2 came this morning after Pfizer's vaccine news. In my opinion, Biden's victory and the prospect of an effective vaccine both make value rotation increasingly likely. The Democrats have talked of taking anti-trust action against large-cap growth companies, and a vaccine means pandemic growth winners like Amazon may soon see more competition from value companies with more in-person traditional business models. A vaccine of course won't change consumer behavior right away. It has to be approved, manufactured, and distributed. But I do think we will sometime soon take a run at Target 3.
Editors' picks
AMEX:RSPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3