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Election

NZD/USD Targets for Election NightFancy selling into uncertainty? This could be a scenario for the NZD/USD in the lead up to the election in New Zealand which is way too close to call for either major political party right now (Labour vs National). Voting has been open all week and closes October 14, with the winner called the same day (but after the close of this trading week). Polls have the right leaning National party carving out a small lead at the moment, but some hiccups have seen this lead shrink in the past week (e.g., The were caught knowingly lying about amount the average person would receive from their promised tax cuts) National has also promised to remove the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's mandate to consider employment in its interest rate decisions, which could shift the central bank to a more dovish bias (as current strong employment figures in NZ are perhaps heightening its proclivity to hike). Combine this with the general uncertainty induced by the election, and some downside targets for the NZD/USD could be charted in anticipation for election night and the Monday following the results. The recent touch point for the 0.5861 is the most obvious target that the pair will have to overcome if it wants to seek lower targets. This would also open up new 2023 lows, with 2022 benchmarks helping set possible targets.
by BlackBull_Markets
Control of congress is very UNCLEARY’all this is huge … during midterm elections the democrats are hoping for no republicans blowout but suddenly it will happen or too close to call. In congress it’s very unclear and too close to call what it’s going to happen. But will the republicans blowout will cause an economic crash ? Or how the Feds reserve will react to it because the next interest rate hike decision while the inflation still over 40 year high. This seems like the crash in USA is coming along with Significant Recession in 2023, the worst is coming
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
What Does Boris Johnson Resigning Mean For Markets?In this video we address potential market outcomes of the current scandal engulfing Boris Johnson's leadership. We see 3 potential outcomes, I've listed them briefly below and fully explained them in the video. Option 1 - Boris Johnson resigns quickly and Rishi Sunak becomes the new prime minister. This would be positive for the GBP Option 2 - We see a messy process over the next week or two where the conservative party force a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson. This situation would be volatile for markets. Option 3 - A surprise General Election is called. This would be negative for markets initally until clarity is established. Let me know in the comments below your thoughts on how this could affect markets.
by JoelWarby
GBPUSD: Rallies should be capped!GBPUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.2350 (stop at 1.2415) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 1.2170 and 1.2155 Resistance: 1.2410 / 1.2545 / 1.2670 Support: 1.2155 / 1.2015 / 1.1840 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD/CHF analysis - "Safe Haven war"Dear traders! USD and CHF are said to be some of the bests safe-haven assets, that retain value over downturn or "bad" news. Here is my idea on the USD/CHF pair over the coming period of time. Technical analysis: As we can see USD/CHF pair has been in a downtrend for a long time with more consolidated movement over the last periods. However, since mid-March, we can observe a continuation of the downtrend, at the same time indicating the power of CHF over USD. In December price was consolidating around a key S/R level of approx. 0.8918 having no power to break it with multiple tests. Recently the price came to the trendline, testing it, however not breaking it. Fundamental analysis: As you may already know bot USD and CHF are the most common forex safe-haven assets that people turn to in times of uncertainty or downturn of the economy. Right now besides Covid19 news, we have matters of inflation and US elections that seem to be on the clear path at last. Tomorrow we get an API report, which may influence the USD. Be patient, watch carefully the area marked by the red ellipse, whether it will break the upper long term trendline or short term lower one. Such movement may suggest future price changes. Most importantly - be patient Feel free to comment, give your thoughts. Would appreciate it if you like it! (my first published analysis :) ) Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Be aware that only you are responsible for your trades. Trade safe and keep in mind the risk!
by AGAdam
DXY going up fandumental : Since the beginning of the Corona pandemic, the dollar index has been in a bearish channel and has returned to its support level 3 years ago. With the formation of Biden's democratic government and the Democrats' monetary policies and their use of economic pyramids, we expect the dollar index to rise. technical: In daily timeframe, we see the indicator with the support level and the return, which can be seen with divergence in rsi and macd indicators. It can be concluded that we expect a rise for the dollar in the coming days
TVC:DXYLong
by majesty-investment
Gold - Taking a run at $2,000?Gold has had a great start to the year after enduring a difficult final few months of 2020. The yellow metal smashed through $1,900 and hasn't looked back, seeing some resistance around $1,950 but not pulling back in any significant way. The backdrop of a softer dollar is continuing to be supportive for gold, although that could be tested in the coming days depending on the outcome of the Senate re-run election in Georgia. Should the Democrats take effective control of the Senate, it could be bullish for the greenback and stall gold's progress. From a technical perspective, gold is testing an interesting level around the 61.8% fib of the summer highs to November lows. This coincides roughly with the top of the rising channel on the four hour chart which could make it an interesting level of resistance in the near term. A break above here could open the doors to a run at $2,000 which would be very interesting, indeed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
2
Trump's Odds Drop to 33%, Easy 3x in 1 Month?Trump was diagnosed with COVID last night. His betting odds have dropped to under 34% which means you could easily triple your money if he wins. Chances are high (99%) that he will survive the infection. And chances are also very high that he will win the election. Many will say "look at the polls!" but as we know from the 2016 Wikileaks and election results, the polls are manipulated by oversampling democrats, and the mainstream media plays right into this bias: "I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling" wikileaks.org "Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win." NYT. November 8th, 2016. "Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 71.4%. Donald Trump 28.6%." FiveThirtyEight. November 8th, 2016 "Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning" Reuters. November 7th, 2016. "In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent)" Fox News. November 5th, 2016. "Bottom line: Using the Princeton Election Consortium’s methods, a less aggressive assumption (sigma=1.1%) leads to a Clinton win probability of 95%." Princeton University. November 6th, 2016 Obviously the mainstream media polls and election forecasting methodologies cannot be trusted, and are being heavily manipulated by the center-right and the left. I would bet that Trump's chances of winning are very high, and that his base is quite fired up for him. According to a recent Gallup poll 94% of republicans support the president and 39% of independents support him as well. According a recent ABC News poll, only 86% of democrats have a favorable view of Biden (independent results not available). From what I've personally seen it seems most democrats are only voting for Biden because he's "not Trump," which doesn't give him much momentum. Had the democrats nominated a far-left candidate like Bernie Sanders, the results would be much harder to predict. I think the democrats will become radicalized after this election and nominate a far-left candidate, and they will likely win the 2024 election. For now, the radicalized far-right Trump has much more momentum than the middle-of-the-road center-left Biden, and there's a very good risk/reward ratio on this bet. Also there's a chance Trump's betting odds get even lower the closer we get to the election, like it did in 2016, so it might be a good idea to save some money for that. There's obviously no guarantee that Trump will win but the risk to reward here seems very good. (BTW this is not a political statement, just simple observation. I will be voting for the Libertarian Party candidate. I don't support either authoritarian party.)
TLong
by Intuit
S&P 500 Yearly Forecast (Nov 2020 - Nov 2021)S&P 500 Index (SPX) (November 18th 2020 through November 2021) Low: 3010.3 points High: 3876.6 - 3900 points There could be some great buying opportunities ahead of us in the coming year, can't wait to see what 2021 brings us. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
TVC:SPXShort
by Hambooger
5