Get started

Election

Weekly Recap; Nothing has changedDoing this little recap because I've already seen plenty of outlandish remarks on Twitter about the election and how the markets are overvalued and what not So, as we all know the election results are being prolonged, Trump is whining, and the markets are up 9% over 5 days. Many believe this is overextended and that the markets will eventually simmer down once Biden actually does take office (lets be honest, he probably will). Let's analyze this week and market sentiment. Why have the markets rallied 9% and is this overextended? In short, this is not overextended and the markets will probably continue to climb. Behavioural finance will help explain this. The markets have not actually rallied or overextended on a technical basis, they have instead reconnected to primary/secondary trends after a major sell off. Smart money can help explain the sell off, that is, they knew prices would go down so they sold and jumped back in once the markets bottomed on Friday/Monday (I did too). Seen on the graph we have this trading range between the 2 orange lines, considering there hasn't been a breakout I'd say what happened in the markets this week is perfectly normal. Let's not forget all that cheap money too... Next, lets look at the rationale and what "Wall Street" was actually focusing on: Over the month nothing has changed, and I mean this is the most literal sense, nothing. Fundamentally some stocks surprised on earnings and jumped, and other not so well and fell; this is perfectly normal. Putting these exceptions aside why did the market jump 9% then? Why was the uncertain election perceived so well? An election went by, and yes, we will have a winner. However, the most important take aways are as follows: - Republican senate (say bye bye to Bidens tax hikes and other left-leaning policies) - Trump and Biden economic policies don't defer (there isn't any notable differences) - Economic data is pointing towards recovery Apart from the first 2 points (and maybe the 3rd as icing on the cake) everything else is noise. Covid will be cured, a president will be elected, taxes wont increase...etc. As you can see the clear pattern here: NOTHING HAS OR WILL CHANGE That's pretty much it, we saw a pre-election sell off, then a rally. What's clear here is that Biden won't be as bad on the economy and market as people actually think, in my opinion I think Biden will actually do more good than bad for the economy. With Trump out of office I'm expecting an increase in foreign investment, influx of foreign cash, and *maybe* a first mover advantage in the renewable energy and marijuana industries. Remember: What distinguishes a beginner from an expert is that an expert knows what to ignore. For those who care, i'm up 33% since Monday because I stuck to my guns
TVC:SPX
by RaftoO
USD/JPY and NZD/USD on watch for me today.USD/JPY: • I will not be trading this pair until we know for certain who has won the 2020 US Presidential Election, but if once we do price impulses back up above our lower trend line and a tight flag follows then I'll be looking to get long on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. NZD/USD: • I will not be trading this pair until we know for certain who has won the 2020 US Presidential Election, but if once we do price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for an impulse back down below our upper trend line and a flag and then I'll be looking to get short on the break of the flag. • If price doesn't reach our upper rayline then I'll simply be looking for a convincing impulse back down below our upper trend line and a flag where I'll once again be looking to get short on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades.
by StewySongs
Trading After The Presidential ElectionThe aftermath of the election The presidential election is over, so it is safe to start trading again? First of all, as of writing this, we actually don’t know yet who has won the Presidential Election. As of this morning, Biden leads Trump in the Electoral College 264–214, and we are waiting for an update to see who won Nevada. If Biden wins Nevada, this will give him 270 electoral votes exactly enough to win the presidency. The Trump campaign has also filed lawsuits against the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia as the race to 270 looks to be nearing its end. As of now, it is still a close race. We won’t have any updates until later today, as Nevada basically said yesterday: “You know what, we’ll keep counting, but stop bothering us, we’ll let you know tomorrow around noon. Until then we will not publish any more results.” we will see what is happening there soon. Looking back to last week, the markets were a little bit worried about a so-called “blue wave.” This means the Democrats would control both the House of Representatives, and The Senate. What it comes down to is, how is power being distributed? As of right now, it seems that the Senate COULD remain Republican. However, we’re not quite sure yet. It is very close, but it doesn’t seem that we have this “blue wave” that the markets were fearing. As for The House of Representatives, it seems that it likely to remain Democratic. So we still don’t know for sure who will control The House, The Senate, or win the Presidency. It’s still a close race. There’s still a lot of “would of, could of” and speculation as far as what will happen if Trump stays in office, or if Biden takes over. How is the election affecting the markets & traders? Yesterday morning, the day after the election, the markets were rallying big before pulling back a little bit. The DJI was up more than 900 points as it continued to shoot up that morning, before pulling back before the close. The S&P 500 was up 2.37% and its the same picture here, jumping up before retracing The NASDAQ was the leader of that day towards the close. Up 4.2% and as high as 5% earlier in the day. What is causing this? As I mentioned, looking at the election results so far, there doesn’t seem to be a “blue wave” coming. This means that there is a division of the powers and not everything in the hand of one party. This is what traders and the markets are looking for right now. A division of the powers could mean fewer regulations on ‘Big Tech’. This is why yesterday, the day after the election we saw big jumps in companies AAPL , AMZN , GOOG , etc. AMZN was up 6% near the close. AAPL was up over 5% and finished up over 4%. NFLX closed up almost 2%, FB closed up almost 8%, and GOOG and MSFT both closed up almost 6%. This is why The NASDAQ was leading the way higher, when before it was lagging behind The S&P 500 and The DJI . News from the election that is affecting the markets In California, voters pushed for Prop. 22. This will allow UBER and LYFT to keep classifying their drivers as independent contractors instead of employees. This was a big win for both companies resulting in both companies being up almost 12% and 13%. Another thing on trader’s minds is the stimulus deal (or lack of one). Recently, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said that a stimulus package should be passed by the end of the year. This is what market participants were waiting for, as new cases for the Coronavirus continue to rise. We are up to almost 95,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day, and Dr. Fauci has said that we are positioned really badly as we head into Flu season. It’s important to keep in mind that uncertainty could creep back into the markets as the Trump Campaign is calling for lawsuits, and as new Covid-19 cases continue to rise. Is it safe to trade after the presidential election? The key question is, “How do we trade this?” Before the election, I said that we should all sit on our hands. For those of you trading The Wheel Strategy, we had an opportunity, on election day, to close out a TQQQ 100 put that I sold. This is the ONLY position that I had going into the election. I sold this put last Thursday and I was able to buy it back on election day, for a nice profit of about $250, after only being in the position for 5 days. Now, the next morning when I saw the markets were up, I thought that after the initial excitement we would fill the gap. After we saw that we might not have any results from the election for a few days I thought we would hover where we opened at around $133 or maybe lower. Instead, we went higher so here’s what I did. I sold a call with a strike price of 148. I sold this call for $2.45 which means I took in another $245 in premium. My break-even price on this trade was around $132. At one point I was down $3,000 but I just kept selling more premium according to the rules of The Wheel Strategy. Overall I’ve realized $2,300 by selling premium. If I would have closed out the trade right then, I would have closed it with a profit, but I didn’t plan to do that just yet. Should TQQQ keep dropping, I will be able to buy back the call that I sold against my shares. If my shares are “called away” I would lose $200 of the premium I earned, but would still be up over $2000 on this trade. I checked this position yesterday and it started the day up $1,400, and this is the only position I am in. For now, I am not taking making any other trades. I may start trading again later this week, but for now, I’m just going to sit on my hands. The markets are still rather flat, trending sideways, as market participants are waiting for the final results of the election to come in. Trading After The Presidential Election Summary Whether you like what’s happening with the election so far, or whether you will like the final results of the election or not, as traders it is our jobs to react to this and make the best out of it by adjusting our trading strategies. With still a lot of uncertainty looming, I recommend sitting back and waiting to take any new positions until the air clears. There is a saying among sailors: “You can’t change the wind, but you can adjust your sails.”
TVC:NDQ
by rockwelltrading
IS BITCOIN GOING PARABOLIC?In my earlier analysis I argued that Bitcoin had a massive resistance ahead, namely the June 2019 high and the upper band of the upward channel. It seems that the election frenzy has boosted investor's convidence to push Bitcoin towards 15k. The resistance was broken by such massive bullish force that it could signal a new parabolic move this year and push toward the all-time-high of 20k. If the enormous buying pressure keeps persisting throughout 2020, we could see a new all-time-high soon.
Long
by FieryTrading
SPY - Bearish VibesHey Traders, I usually don't like going against the grain... especially when the SPY has gained nearly 30 points this week alone. But my trader's intuition is telling me that it's moving too fast and I am starting to get bearish vibes. Taking a look the chart above, you can see that as of today, the SPY has moved across the Keltner Channelin a matter of 4 trading days. Looking at the past three times the SPY crossed across the Keltner Channel, it took an average of about 14 trading days, or roughly 3 weeks. Based on where SPY is trading today, my opinion is that SPY will attempt to break out above its recent resistance level of 354.00... but I don't think it will. SPY has over extended past its moving averages by so much that I think it will regress towards the 8 EMA. The stock market is pumped due to the election...but once the count is over... I think the bulls will be taking profits and selling the news. Again, this is just my intuition and I could be wrong, but I am going to stick to my guns and flag this idea with a Short bias.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
My take on BTCUSDMy analysis of BTCUSD is simple and straightforward. We should watch and see if it's going to break above 14.5k or the bears will jump in at the longer-term resistance line. Bitcoin is more likely going to drop to the 13.6k support on the 4HR chart if 14.5k is not broken. If that happens, we might see a further drop to 12k. However, closing daily candles above 14.5k is a sign that Bitcoin will head back to 16k and 17k eventually. I'm more bearish, but the news and the USA elections may not respect technical analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by KurdEx
EUR/USD BUY SIGNAL Hey tradomaniacs, welcome to a new free trading-setup. EUR/USD: Daytrade-Execution Notice: Keep your risk low ahead FOMC. Biden is more likely to win which is why this breakout is a likely scenario! Market-Buy-Order: 1,17350 Stop-Loss: 1,17000 Target 1: 1,17700 Target 2: 1,17965 Target 3: 1,18350 Stop-Loss: 35 pips Risk: 0,5% Risk-Reward: 2,90 LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Long
by Trading2ez
4
where is bitcoin right now, the silence of bearslet see where are we exactly at upper line of channel that I draw after some days of bloody days after corona that we are for some months! but just broke monthly fib and daily! RSI about 79 ! volume is going a little upper these days and US election result still uncertain (and I guess the effect on BTC uncertain too!) I'm not trading right now and I'm just watching till the election result and see if BTC can hold his position, I guess bull need some rest they are working all these days without rest ! we have 50MA , 100MA , monthly fib, weekly fib near each other so I guess that should be some strong support that we may depend on it safely
by AmirMassoud94
SELLER IN THE GAME, GOLD CHANNELS IDENTIFIED | GC1! DAILY#goldtradingidea #tradingidea #gc1! #comex #futuretrading #gold #election #chartpattern #trendanalysis We have seen very strong sellers entering in the market of GC1! Gold Comex Future. The gold has broken the red line to trend in a new channel. The new horizontal #trending #range of the gold probably follow a logic pattern, as you can see when we do some extensions to the top, we perfectly arrive to the maximum price reached this year. The green top line is where the gold could probably go, same for the bottom middle black line. The Gold is at the moment in a very #importantzone. Follow up on this red line which is a super #strongresistance right now. Above $1927 there is a strong probability to see the #goldrise from there. For the moment be careful at sellers tricky moves on the GC1!. The are sqeezing down and disappearing. Hope my chart helps you have another vision on the Gold. Thanks you for the shared and the interest shown. See under some extra information on the lines. Green Top Line: The sky for the Gold Future Price, not reached yet. Beware everything is possible with the Gold. Black Lines: Very strong points in the recent history of the Gold GC1! Comex Future. At the moment it is the strongest nearest bottom point. Red Line: The strongest point of the GC1! Gold Future at the moment. Dotted Lines: Channels in which the gold has been evolving and potential future channels Green Circles: Critical moments for the #GC1! #Gold #Comex #Future
COMEX:GC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Bitcoin highest monthly close ever Welcome fellow Tradingviewers, This analyses is a follow-up from our BTC halving TA and the followup from that analyses analyses has proven to be effectious. (which will be linked in this analyses) If you haven't already consider reading that analyses before going deeper into this one. Since that analyses we are now on a 100 day streak above $10K and approaching new highs lets break down what the market is showing us. In this analyses we are going to show you our view on the current market situation for Bitcoin . We will be analysing BTC using a top-down strategy , including candlestick patterns , indicators and price patterns. Monthly: - This close was the HIGHEST CLOSE EVER for Bitcoin (By $20 on Finex) - The monthly close was a bullish engulfing candle. - Breakout immenent, with breaking ATH close price. - We are still above all moving averages. - Volume keeps increasing. - Higher High seems immenent. - Bullish MACD Weekly: - We closed the weekly as a bullish engulfing candle. - We still have the strong trend from the W formation on the MACD. - The MACD is bullish and shows strength. - We are well above all MA's - Volume increasing - Forming a Higher high according to analyses one. - We closed well above the 0.618 Fib. Level. Daily: - We closed the last daily candle as a bullish engulfing closing above $14K! - Clearly closed above the 2019 high. - The MACD is bullish. - We are well above all MA's - Volume increasing. In summary: Things are looking very Bullish for Bitcoin, the highest monthly close ever could result in heavy buying pressure from retail, smart and institutional money. We have seen crazy adoption by companies as microstrategy, paypal and square in the last couple of months. More companies will follow and with a graph like this we can only start to imagine what kind of companies/funds these are going to be. We ofcourse do not want to fall for FOMO and therefore we need to keep our vision clear. The still undicided elections are also things to take into account, this can create chaos in all markets including Bitcoin and while Bitcoin investors are mostly in GREED mode it will not be completely unreasonable to think about a pullback to squeze out the high leverage Long traders at the moment. But for now there are very little bearish signals from our perspective, support levels are also located in the chart. The lack of trading patterns is worriying making it difficult to set up targets on the current rise for the long term. If you disagree and see a price pattern, make sure to leave it in the comments with according targets! We broke above the 0.618 FIB. Level which has historically been a important price for Bitcoin. The next aim from here would be the 0.786 located around $16300. So we broke out of the downtrend and are forming the higher high that is going to move Bitcoin to higher grounds. This analyses is only intended to share my idea, to educate and entertain you guys. This should not be considered as financial advice. I hope you guys enjoyed this analyses, if you did don't forget to leave a Like! If you want to share your thoughts, please do so in the comments below! Kind Regards, Frank | Forallcrypto
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by ForAllCrypto