Election
Four potential downside targetI don't think BTC holds up amidst election volatility. Coupled with its inability to break June 2019 resistance and being overbought on both slow stoch and RSI, it needs to cool off. Some targets below at the confluence of VPOC and trend line, support from October 21 and 22nd, a long term trend line, and the .5 fib retracement to ATH. Stop loss above the .5 short term fib above.
Zoom 8h Chart 11/2 Head & Shoulders May Have Bottomed@cptWORLD Gave some great insight on zoom so I went back to review and adjust accordingly at the the end of the day.
The bears failed today which I wasn't expecting until the last green trendline. This made me adjust my buy zone up slightly to 430-455. However, we need to see tomorrow and over the next few days how price reacts to this trend. Right now we are looking good for a bounce back up.
I've switched from short-term bearish to neutral. I'll be watching this closely as more lockdowns and stay-at-home orders are announced.
NASDAQ:ZM
SP500 DOUBLE BOTTOM: POSSIBLE SHORT TERM HIKE AHEADThe SP500 seems to have completed a classical bullish pattern, the double bottom.
We might have a few sideway days ahead with the elections coming up, but after that I expect the SP500 to rise again. A conservative approach would be to wait for an entry till next week.
After arriving at the area of resistance, consider taking some profits since the SP500 might form a triple top.
In case of new all-time-highs, consider an entry from there on. By that time we would be closer to January/February, with high chances of a COVID cure to be found around that time, giving a major boost to investors' confidence in the economy.
VIX Breakout Wedge Breakout 11/2Hello,
I've been charting the VIX as we have entered an unusual uptrend. I didn't notice this until a deep some deep analysis and found the confluent trendline that has been keeping price down on the VIX.
Well, we broke out of that pattern and are attempting to reestablish bull trendlines.
I'll update this daily until the charted trendlines are no longer in play. CBOE:VIX
Zoom 1hr Chart | Heavily Bearish, No Long Positions AvailableChart Summary:
The bulls did the best they could to hold the main bull trendline on the head of the head and shoulders. After that the bears feasted and heavily and broke through 3 trendlines with relative ease. We are now working on the 4th trendline which I do expect us to break through with similar velocity. If bearish momentum declines significantly, my buy zone could be potentially raised to the last trendline which would be around the 430-475 level, depending on when we are test it.
This was a chart requested and I am not recommending taking any position on this stock. We have a long way to go down before we really start looking at buying opportunities. We have never filled or tested the GAP up from last earnings but it's unclear to me if we will. However I think it's likely we drop down to the redzone with similar velocity we have been having. I do expect a lot of choppiness and depending on what's going on with politics and lockdowns, we could see a lot of bullish velocity from here and recapturing of some bullish trendlines
I'd love feedback on this chart from the community. I love recommendations and discussing possiblities.
GBPUSD SHORT TRADE IDEAHELLO EVERYONE,
Coming to Analysis of GBPUSD , here are a few points to be considered :
--Price Has broken out of the channel and we have a clear "break and retest" .
--Price has broken a 4Hr structure and retested the low .
--Currently I am looking for a nice move to the downside .
--The Targets have been defined over Critical Demand/ Supply zone to ensure accuracy over the targets
EURUSD - Potential sell re-entry EURUSD rejected the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level + descending channel resistance.
The market broke down below the pullback support.
Potential retest of flip trendline resistance + fibonacci retracement levels.
Sell re-entry at confirmed bounce off the retest ⬇️.
November 1 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
Two-Day Balance, 100% Retracement Level And LVN Below $3,200.
Technical:
Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 100% of the rally that began after the September sell-off.
During Last Week’s Action: Alongside a materialization of the Federal Reserve's growth risk factors -- a lack of fiscal support, resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, as well as a tightening of financial conditions -- U.S. index products showed increased confidence in their exploration lower.
Going back, last week started off with a clear break from balance and acceptance below the October 22 excess low, which suggested a change in directional conviction. The selling intensified, after a failed response at the $3,370 high-volume concentration, and continued into Friday’s close, through the $3,330 level, which marked the upper boundary of a low-volume concentration, initially formed by upside directional conviction.
Given Friday’s end-of-day rotation, away from value, the week ended within a two-day balance area, providing a clear trading framework for the week that follows. Therefore, if participants were to initiate and spend time outside of the balance area, then it's likely the market will continue in that particular direction. Otherwise, prices will remain range-bound, favoring short-term, responsive trade.
Fundamental:
Alongside a resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, in a commentary, Bloomberg discussed the notion that the fear of COVID-19 is more impactful on the economy. In support is the following statement by Variant Perception, an independent economic research provider. bloom.bg
“As long as policymakers and the media present a more alarmist view of the virus’s impact than can be justified by a dispassionate analysis of the data, recoveries will continue to stutter. On the other hand, an easing of the fear portrayed would likely allow recoveries to accelerate at a much faster rate.”
Continuing, Moody’s Capital Markets Research finds that medical professionals claim a second COVID-19 wave will not exact the same toll on hospitalizations and deaths. bit.ly
With that, Bloomberg adds that the focus on mandatory lockdowns is overdone since the mere idea of catching the deadly virus invokes voluntary social distancing, which has a greater impact on mobility than the lockdowns. This is validated by IMF data which found that the lifting of the lockdowns generally had a more limited impact than imposing one.
As a result, Variant Perception suggests that negative coverage of COVID-19 be lightened.
Key Events:
Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Presidential Election.
Tuesday: Factory Orders.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change.
Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference.
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit Change.
Recent News:
The U.S. faces the biggest week of 2020 with the election, Fed, and jobs report. bloom.bg
High-yield spreads are showing a muted response to ultra-high equity volatility. bit.ly
Independent traders doubt new lockdowns in Europe will lead to a further oil rout. bloom.bg
BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) will benefit from its 2021 ETF expansion in Brazil. bit.ly
Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) cut spending. reut.rs
Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) profit beats as cost cuts soften sales hit. reut.rs
The October equity market sell-off anticipates a meaningful drop in business sales. bit.ly
Tech companies will have to explain how algorithms work under a new EU ruling. reut.rs
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18. reut.rs
Cboe Global Markets Inc (BATS: CBOE) tops profit views as retail activity supports. reut.rs
Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) sees demand for sneakers, masks driving revenue. reut.rs
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) unit Sam’s Club and DoorDash team on medicine delivery. reut.rs
Joe Biden’s clean-energy ‘revolution’ faces challenge to match fossil-fuel jobs, pay. reut.rs
U.S consumer spending beats forecasts; worries over decreasing government money. reut.rs
Federal Reserve cut loan minimums, easing terms for Main Street Lending Program. reut.rs
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 35.3% Bullish, 29.4% Neutral, 35.3% Bearish as of 10/28/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) -78,315,991 as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.6% as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Netflix correctional moveHello traders and analysts,
Here is a view of Netflix, while alot of people are currently restricted to access in the outside world, content is being pushed to online platforms but without an abundance of new content to be completed and provided - re-runs and previous fan favourites will suffice? or will it?
Will people scale back on entertainment where people may have lost their jobs or look for an alternate source? e.g. streaming, youtube etc.
The chart shows us:
Maxed out weekly, monthly tops
We are now in a weekly trading range - but price has shown a gap formation which has been added to outflows with the Nas100 outflows also.
With the election looming - it is a good opportunity here to take profits and cover profits with short positions
Trade:
We will look for the least path of resistance when trading, meaning the highest probability the price shows a sign of falling.
Keep in mind both scenarios
1. - buy from $440 correction
2. sell to $360 zone
3. Sell to $440 and buy in - with confirmation this structure will not break..
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VIX Analysis of 1992-2016 Elections & What it Means for 2020Summary
Evaluating the historic change in the VIX from the 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections we can see that Q4 of each election year is a downtrend and results in lower volatility until the inauguration in January of the ensuing year, regardless of the result.
**CLINTON ADDED To chart AFTER POST PUBLISHING**
Will 2020 be different?
Other factors to consider
Nov. 4th is a Wednesday/Contract Expiration Day
DJIA, IXIC and SPX are all sitting on resistances-flipped-supports from ATH beginning of 2020
Should be interesting to watch on several fronts.