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Election2020

NZDUSD fascinating for short positionNZDUSD fascinating for short position also correlated to audusd currency pair (analysis linked below). USD currency is getting atractive while the supply spot in getting attractive to usd investors between 0.70795 and 0.70722 resistance zone. On the other side Kiwi has reached a new higher high level a week ago. Currency tried to continue bullish at few tries from 4H and H1 timframe perspective but without much strengt. Is this the question buyers are getting tired or sellers are trying to shorten positions? To this answer we are calling out one of our Elite students who is proving important facts about nzdusd analysis. He said that Nzdusd might hit short targets. By that currency will test stronger support zone on daily timeframe, between 0.69123 and 0.69268 critical levels. From this spot we have to respect further facts about overall trend for this currency pair. Expectations for nzdusd currency pair: Price is expected to break 0.70317 support level and hold bellow. With price confirmation, we are going to enter short position and start looking for three lower targets: T1: 0.70209 T2: 0.69627 T3: 0.69272 If price won't go as we speculate, then price might test resistance level at 0.70668. Why we are drawing this way, can be understandable to every trader especially if you are Elite one. *drawings are made superficially on purpose. We do not want to reveal all our Elite secrets, but once you are one of Elite then every analysis become easy to understand* If you'd like to know why and how we look chart and manage price action with elite custom indicator system, you are more then welcome in our Elitefxacademy community Good trading Elitefxacademy
Short
by EliteFxAcademy
To 20k we go!!! Bitcoin analysisGUYS! we are, (were,) in a bull flag! We are breaking out of this bull flag and the line will take us to 20k strait!!! There is also a hash ribbon that, when gets the command, makes us go up!!! T he command is a blue dot, and if you buy every blue dot and sell every miner copitulation, (the red part,) that you would make amazing gains. usually in a minors capitulation, we either go down or stay the same. This time, (rare,) we are going up in a minors capitulation. I think that is because of the election. It doesn't matter who wins, (or won, i'm not keeping track,) Bitcoin goes up. look at this picture of the hash ribbon. there is this one place, (at the left,) that, if you sold at the minors capitulation, you would lose 20%. So usually, you have to sell alittle before the minors capitulation starts. But in the end, we could go to 20k by 3 days!!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptoforyou
The Bulls love Biden! 🗳️Or do they? In an impulsive wave, the bulls manage to push above the 3550 mark. A major resistance that makes us abandon our primary expectation, as indicated in our last post. This scenario is now our alternative count, which has to be considered with a 42% probability. To further strengthen the upwards move, we need to see a quotation of 3572 and higher, plus a break out above the current all time high. If the bulls manage to deliver, the way is paved for 3800 points and higher. We are at a crossroads to see if the breakout caused by the election results will be sustainable. As long as we hold above 3500, the SP500 is set up for higher notation.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
The Joe Biden Tax PlanJoe Biden Tax Plan Topics: ☐ increase capital gains tax ☐ elimination of step-up basis ☐ elimination of the 1031 exchange As the 2020 presidential election comes to an end, many are wondering what Joe Bidens' Tax Plan could do to the asset markets; By looking into his tax plan, we may have a couple of hints. As many know, democratic nominee, Joe Biden plans to raise taxes on corporations along with taxes on individuals who make more than 400k per year. This will be done by raising income, payroll, and most importantly, capital gains taxes . Any time someone sells an asset like stocks, bitcoin, or real estate for more than what they purchased it for, it creates a taxable event. Taxable events like these are what make up the capital gains tax. As an example, let's say you purchased 1 Bitcoin for 4k earlier this year. With the rapid increase in Bitcoin's price, you decided to take profit at 14k, leaving $10,000 of taxable income. The percentage of that which is owed to the government is dependent on the capital gains tax rate. Biden plans to raise this capital gains from 20% to 40% for those making more than $1 million per year. Though most of us do not make more than $1 million per year, a 20% tax increase will lessen the incentive for big players to be in the market. Thus having a negative effect on asset prices all around. Another factor to consider is that Biden plans to eliminate step-up basis. Currently, when an asset is left to an heir, the basis of that property is increased to its current fair market value. If that heir then chooses to liquidate the asset, it is only taxed on the difference in price since they gained possession. By eliminating the step-up basis, when the heir goes to sell, they will be taxed from their grantees' purchase price. This could potentially reduce the number of people holding assets long-term. Lastly, Biden wishes to eliminate the 1031 ' like kind ' exchange. For those of you familiar with real estate, many people have used the 1031 exchange to move liquidated funds from one investment property to another tax-free within a timed threshold. By eliminating this, there will be much incentive for property investors to keep re-investing their money. Likely having a negative effect on housing prices. By reducing incentives to keep investors money in the market, it seems that the Joe Biden Tax plan could have a negative effect on markets all around. Looking at Bitcoin technicals, it seems it is ready for some bearish fundamentals. The BTC price is grinding against the top of the year-long channel which I do not expect to break without a fight. Looking forward to seeing what effect the presidential election has on immediate pricing.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by oh92
22
ES Potential Idea (Nov 8th - Nov 19th 2020)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) (November 8th 2020 through November 19th 2020) Low: 2531 points High: 3590 points This may be too drastic to happen, or to happen right away. No chance? I understand the longer I keep talking about a market crash that hasn't happened (yet) the sillier I look. If something major doesn't happen this month, are we still on track to have something happen come January 2021? February-March? The amount of greed in the average consumers right now, election and Trump vote claims, etc, all lead me to believe we are at some sort of stressing point, the load gets heavier and heavier and something will snap and flash soon. As always, I'll be looking to the news for some clues for the next few weeks. I could be completely wrong here, I just feel like something is building up soon. Watch the US election drama closely throughout the next few months. The related ideas for this chart are a collection of different scenarios, all with somewhat similar outcomes across major stock indexes. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hambooger
Dollar in a thight squeeze and will hold the downward trendUS Elections are nearing and Trump will become the winner of the Election night, but the mail-ballots will eventually decide the winner of the elections. Trumps initial victory will make the S&P500 and NASDAQ rise to the end of the year. However the rising tensions will keep the markets holding breath and mixed. However the requirement of stimulus will end up killing the dollar quite badly, which in the end is good for the US foreign-trade.
TVC:DXYShort
by Jaquatech
1
Trading After The Presidential ElectionThe aftermath of the election The presidential election is over, so it is safe to start trading again? First of all, as of writing this, we actually don’t know yet who has won the Presidential Election. As of this morning, Biden leads Trump in the Electoral College 264–214, and we are waiting for an update to see who won Nevada. If Biden wins Nevada, this will give him 270 electoral votes exactly enough to win the presidency. The Trump campaign has also filed lawsuits against the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia as the race to 270 looks to be nearing its end. As of now, it is still a close race. We won’t have any updates until later today, as Nevada basically said yesterday: “You know what, we’ll keep counting, but stop bothering us, we’ll let you know tomorrow around noon. Until then we will not publish any more results.” we will see what is happening there soon. Looking back to last week, the markets were a little bit worried about a so-called “blue wave.” This means the Democrats would control both the House of Representatives, and The Senate. What it comes down to is, how is power being distributed? As of right now, it seems that the Senate COULD remain Republican. However, we’re not quite sure yet. It is very close, but it doesn’t seem that we have this “blue wave” that the markets were fearing. As for The House of Representatives, it seems that it likely to remain Democratic. So we still don’t know for sure who will control The House, The Senate, or win the Presidency. It’s still a close race. There’s still a lot of “would of, could of” and speculation as far as what will happen if Trump stays in office, or if Biden takes over. How is the election affecting the markets & traders? Yesterday morning, the day after the election, the markets were rallying big before pulling back a little bit. The DJI was up more than 900 points as it continued to shoot up that morning, before pulling back before the close. The S&P 500 was up 2.37% and its the same picture here, jumping up before retracing The NASDAQ was the leader of that day towards the close. Up 4.2% and as high as 5% earlier in the day. What is causing this? As I mentioned, looking at the election results so far, there doesn’t seem to be a “blue wave” coming. This means that there is a division of the powers and not everything in the hand of one party. This is what traders and the markets are looking for right now. A division of the powers could mean fewer regulations on ‘Big Tech’. This is why yesterday, the day after the election we saw big jumps in companies AAPL , AMZN , GOOG , etc. AMZN was up 6% near the close. AAPL was up over 5% and finished up over 4%. NFLX closed up almost 2%, FB closed up almost 8%, and GOOG and MSFT both closed up almost 6%. This is why The NASDAQ was leading the way higher, when before it was lagging behind The S&P 500 and The DJI . News from the election that is affecting the markets In California, voters pushed for Prop. 22. This will allow UBER and LYFT to keep classifying their drivers as independent contractors instead of employees. This was a big win for both companies resulting in both companies being up almost 12% and 13%. Another thing on trader’s minds is the stimulus deal (or lack of one). Recently, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said that a stimulus package should be passed by the end of the year. This is what market participants were waiting for, as new cases for the Coronavirus continue to rise. We are up to almost 95,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day, and Dr. Fauci has said that we are positioned really badly as we head into Flu season. It’s important to keep in mind that uncertainty could creep back into the markets as the Trump Campaign is calling for lawsuits, and as new Covid-19 cases continue to rise. Is it safe to trade after the presidential election? The key question is, “How do we trade this?” Before the election, I said that we should all sit on our hands. For those of you trading The Wheel Strategy, we had an opportunity, on election day, to close out a TQQQ 100 put that I sold. This is the ONLY position that I had going into the election. I sold this put last Thursday and I was able to buy it back on election day, for a nice profit of about $250, after only being in the position for 5 days. Now, the next morning when I saw the markets were up, I thought that after the initial excitement we would fill the gap. After we saw that we might not have any results from the election for a few days I thought we would hover where we opened at around $133 or maybe lower. Instead, we went higher so here’s what I did. I sold a call with a strike price of 148. I sold this call for $2.45 which means I took in another $245 in premium. My break-even price on this trade was around $132. At one point I was down $3,000 but I just kept selling more premium according to the rules of The Wheel Strategy. Overall I’ve realized $2,300 by selling premium. If I would have closed out the trade right then, I would have closed it with a profit, but I didn’t plan to do that just yet. Should TQQQ keep dropping, I will be able to buy back the call that I sold against my shares. If my shares are “called away” I would lose $200 of the premium I earned, but would still be up over $2000 on this trade. I checked this position yesterday and it started the day up $1,400, and this is the only position I am in. For now, I am not taking making any other trades. I may start trading again later this week, but for now, I’m just going to sit on my hands. The markets are still rather flat, trending sideways, as market participants are waiting for the final results of the election to come in. Trading After The Presidential Election Summary Whether you like what’s happening with the election so far, or whether you will like the final results of the election or not, as traders it is our jobs to react to this and make the best out of it by adjusting our trading strategies. With still a lot of uncertainty looming, I recommend sitting back and waiting to take any new positions until the air clears. There is a saying among sailors: “You can’t change the wind, but you can adjust your sails.”
TVC:NDQ
by rockwelltrading
Wild Whipsaw on Intraday ChartsAs we discussed yesterday, it was US election day and we were expecting some different price action on the USD pairs in particular. As the attached 4 hour chart of the EURUSD shows, this played out pretty quickly before soon calming down again. A major reason we avoided making new trades yesterday was because we wanted to avoid moves like this where even if you picked the correct market direction you had your stop whipsawed out. This is likely not the end of the erratic moves, so remember to keep your risk small and potentially use larger stops.
by TaherJalili
Bitcoin highest monthly close ever Welcome fellow Tradingviewers, This analyses is a follow-up from our BTC halving TA and the followup from that analyses analyses has proven to be effectious. (which will be linked in this analyses) If you haven't already consider reading that analyses before going deeper into this one. Since that analyses we are now on a 100 day streak above $10K and approaching new highs lets break down what the market is showing us. In this analyses we are going to show you our view on the current market situation for Bitcoin . We will be analysing BTC using a top-down strategy , including candlestick patterns , indicators and price patterns. Monthly: - This close was the HIGHEST CLOSE EVER for Bitcoin (By $20 on Finex) - The monthly close was a bullish engulfing candle. - Breakout immenent, with breaking ATH close price. - We are still above all moving averages. - Volume keeps increasing. - Higher High seems immenent. - Bullish MACD Weekly: - We closed the weekly as a bullish engulfing candle. - We still have the strong trend from the W formation on the MACD. - The MACD is bullish and shows strength. - We are well above all MA's - Volume increasing - Forming a Higher high according to analyses one. - We closed well above the 0.618 Fib. Level. Daily: - We closed the last daily candle as a bullish engulfing closing above $14K! - Clearly closed above the 2019 high. - The MACD is bullish. - We are well above all MA's - Volume increasing. In summary: Things are looking very Bullish for Bitcoin, the highest monthly close ever could result in heavy buying pressure from retail, smart and institutional money. We have seen crazy adoption by companies as microstrategy, paypal and square in the last couple of months. More companies will follow and with a graph like this we can only start to imagine what kind of companies/funds these are going to be. We ofcourse do not want to fall for FOMO and therefore we need to keep our vision clear. The still undicided elections are also things to take into account, this can create chaos in all markets including Bitcoin and while Bitcoin investors are mostly in GREED mode it will not be completely unreasonable to think about a pullback to squeze out the high leverage Long traders at the moment. But for now there are very little bearish signals from our perspective, support levels are also located in the chart. The lack of trading patterns is worriying making it difficult to set up targets on the current rise for the long term. If you disagree and see a price pattern, make sure to leave it in the comments with according targets! We broke above the 0.618 FIB. Level which has historically been a important price for Bitcoin. The next aim from here would be the 0.786 located around $16300. So we broke out of the downtrend and are forming the higher high that is going to move Bitcoin to higher grounds. This analyses is only intended to share my idea, to educate and entertain you guys. This should not be considered as financial advice. I hope you guys enjoyed this analyses, if you did don't forget to leave a Like! If you want to share your thoughts, please do so in the comments below! Kind Regards, Frank | Forallcrypto
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by ForAllCrypto
New Level Gains Importance on S&P 500The S&P 500 has had a violent rebound from Friday’s oversold levels. It’s rallied more than 5.5 percent so far in the week, the index’s best three-day gain since early April. The bounce has brought prices back to a new level that may be resistance: 3465. This was the high on October 21 and near the close on Friday, October 23. (Daily and weekly close.) The level could be important because it was followed by a sharp drop on Monday, October 26, when SPX knifed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The index’s return to 3465 this morning, followed by selling, could reinforce the importance of this level. Next, traders may eye 3425 (blue line on chart). That was resistance in the week ended September 11 and again on the big October 6 candle. It also provided support two weeks ago. There’s a Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and non-farm payrolls on Friday. However, investors face bigger uncertainty given the political situation. The result could be prices whipping around between technical levels based on headlines and tweets. In that case, it could help to focus on key price points. 3465 may now be one of those lines to watch on the index. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
FX Update: Contested election ahead after Trump-quake, Part II?Summary: The US mainstream media and polling industry has fatally eroded its credibility in this election cycle after the apparent 8-10% lead Biden enjoyed in their polls was a complete mirage and Trump has made this election another nail-biter on par with 2016, even amid a higher overall turnout. The final key takeaways for markets still hang in the balance, but the menu of possible outcomes has narrowed. The fall-out and reckoning from this election will echo for years, but the headline is that we have witnessed a second “Trump-quake” repeat from 2016, as least in terms of his strength in the polls relative to what the mainstream polling industry was predicting. Their methods deserve a quick and quiet death after this fatal error and soul-searching in the entire complex and former main-stream media that relies on them will abound. We still don’t know the outcome of the election, but the extremely close result almost guarantees that the apparent loser will not go down easy. Today’s FX Trading focus: Waiting for the result first and foremost The result of the election is still unknown and looks like that may remain the case well into today in the US time zones. The chief uncertainty is the last portion of the counts in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the three key states that were the difference for Trump in 2016. Late mail-in votes there tilt Democratic and are still keeping a sense of suspense, as is the tight situation in Nevada. To make the situation even more fraught, US President Trump was out speaking in the middle of the night in the US and essentially declared victory and asked the Supreme Court to stop the counting, a shocking turn of events. The menu of outcomes has narrowed The only thing we have fully realized is that the menu of likely outcomes has narrowed severely, with all thoughts of a Democratic Blue Wave (much less Tsunami) completely out the window, although we still don’t know whether we face a split Congress as the Senate outcome is also up in the air. If the Senate is 50-50, the stakes for the presidency are that much greater (and one key seat in Georgia won’t be decided until a January 5 run-off as if the situation wasn’t dicey enough.) For FX, what does it mean? The situation is too fast developing to offer anything but a rough sketch here, but there are three possible outcomes and how currencies might treat them in coming days: Contested election pointing to Trump eventual win: In this scenario, Senate control is largely irrelevant because the Dems retain the House. If Trump has the votes after the final tallies are in, there will no doubt be a challenge from the Democratic side and period of uncertainty, but the market will generally like this outcome and celebrate it with USD strength (less stimulus) and strong risk sentiment. The mood may change quickly on questions of how Trump and the Democratic House deal with the need for fresh stimulus, however, but Trump is no ideologue and will be happy to do what it takes as long as he can tilt more of the money toward his base rather than toward Dem state handouts, which he would like to starve. Social unrest is a big wildcard, however, but reflation narrative is potentially weakened for months under this scenario. Contested election pointing to narrow Biden eventual win but with no Democratic control of the Senate (highest probability at present? But Trump won’t go down easy….) : this is more difficult to call on the dollar direction, but is very bad for risk sentiment as stimulus prospects would prove very dicey for lame duck session on frustrated Trump and early in Biden presidency on blocking Senate. Risk off is theoretically USD positive scenario but that reaction could stumble quickly. This scenario likely most positive for the JPY if global risk sentiment nosedives on the general uncertainty and risk of deflationary concerns. Longer term, however, I wouldn’t expect it to change the path to a reflationary narrative and weaker US dollar. Desperation would be in the driver’s seat eventually and keep stimulus forthcoming. Contested election pointing to Biden and getting 50-50 in the Senate: To my non-expert eyes, the math for this outcome looks very challenging for the Democrats. But if this result somehow emerges, it will allow at least a weak version of the “Blue Wave” scenario as Biden would have the votes in Congress to push through major stimulus if there is total party discipline (and key independent Senators arms are twisted). This is a slightly more modest version of the risk-on, USD negative, especially EM- and commodity currency positive outcome the market was pricing in just ahead of the results rolling in. This analyst will eat large helping of humble pie Egg all over Yours Truly’s face after believing that Biden was entering this race with a commanding lead in the national polls. In retrospect, there were two mistakes I made in making my assessment for this cycle. The first was believing that the polls reflected the reality on the ground and in the electorate that would turn up on Election Day and that we might see a repeat of 2016, in which the broad polls for several days before the election actually proved very close to the final margin. This was very wrong in 2020! The other narrative I mistakenly bought into was that turnout would prove almost universally Biden positive as the election was largely a Trump referendum and anti-Trump voices, especially among the young, would prove decisive. This does look to have been partially the case in some places (Georgia for sure – but Texas may prove far more "purple" (small R win) as well) but not elsewhere (Florida). I think the factors driving the final result and tilt far more in favour of Trump than was expected – even if we get a Biden win by the hair of his teeth – were outlined in my piece over the weekend on “What if I am totally wrong?” as Trump clearly won the enthusiasm and narrative game relative to expectations and among his base - an unbelievable feat given Covid-19 pandemic. Value in NOK? Crude oil prices are beating a steep retreat on surging Libyan crude oil production on the supply side (and those fearing a strong Democratic sweep will fear the arrival of more Iranian barrels of crude as well) while on the demand side, the latest series of lockdowns across Europe and perhaps on anticipation that the US could be headed the same way are weighing. On that latter note, we’re not very likely to see anything remotely comprehensive in terms of restrictions on the US front as long as Donald Trump is in the White House, which he will be at least up until Inauguration Day 2021. Sure, the downside threats to oil remain, but we are likely “getting there” in terms of putting in a market low as the kind of shock that sent oil prices nominally negative in the US futures market is unlikely to repeat. And even when we saw that remarkable development back then, together with conjecture of whether things were getting so bad in general that the authorities might have to shut markets, NOKSEK, to take an example, only managed to close down below 0.9000 on one single daily close. With NOKSEK poking below 0.9300 this morning, the pair feels like a good value trade for the long term – and possibly provides some volatility protection at the margin relative to trying a NOK long via EURNOK shorts, as NOK and SEK would both likely suffer during liquidity panics. Of course, traders should note that it is an illiquid pair, so pricing a large trade in volatile markets can prove a challenge. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. 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by Saxo
RSI Divergent, is BTC in for a correction?Hello beautiful person! I am up tonight watching the U.S election and witness live the effect it will have on the BTC during it. If you have read my previous posts, you know I have been writing about a second wave of the virus and lockdown; which will in turn affect the market negatively. I expected the second wave and more effect in September/October, so it seems I missed it there in months; but at least in Europe we are in a new lock down. How will this affect BTC? I believe that BTC is still correlated to the stock market in the sense that when we have a sell off in the markets, we will also have sell off in BTC. However, BTC will gain again shortly after. Short term bearish, long term bullish. - check the chart for more info and trend lines. - check the divergent in RSI. - added fibonacci retracement indicator for the last "bull run". Have a great night everyone, and stay safe!
by egilagre
XBTUSD - US election | 69,369.164 BTC movedInteresting behavior. Short $14k third time in row would be too easy for BTC. Btw, 69,369.164 BTC were moved (almost $1B) from one address to another from a wallet where there have been no transactions since 2015. But it doesn't affect the price at any way it seems US election uncertainty + large BTC moves, I would be better watching for the sidelines. Looking forward to a suitable opportunity Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research. Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thanks!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Bitduke
2