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Election2020

SPY 2 hour chart - Creeping back into downward price channelYesterday SPY 200MA crossed the 50MA on the 2 hours chart. Today's pop was definitely driven by short coverings. SPY is now heading back into the downward price channel starting a new "A" wave as we head into the uncertainty of today's election. Pennsylvania results, unless there's a landslide, will not have results tonight or by tomorrow due to the Supreme courts decision to allow counting mail-in ballots up to three days after the election. There's a high probability certified results will not be known by Wednesday and both parties are ready to contest results, which would lead to a drop in markets. I am holding SPY Puts as a hedge against my calls in my swing trades.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fibonacci43
1
S&P Analysis Week of 11/1/2020: Election 2020This is the week of the presidential elections in the United States. How will the election madness impact the stock market? If you want to know exactly what happens during this week, you came to the wrong place. Sorry. What I do know is that there is the potential for two very profitable trade setups. Similar to last week, I believe price is consolidating to make a break away move in either the northern or southern direction (highlighted in the No Man's Land pink box). Isn't that convenient that price has pegged itself into an area where the technical pattern allows for either breakout direction. There are no coincidences in the stock market. I'm neutral as to the direction the market goes, however, it is worth pointing out that price seems to have started to form a bearish flag last week. Not always, but these typically break down in the southern direction. I believe the market is going to do what it does regardless of who wins the election. I think the setups I've labeled on the chart are self explanatory. Just remember DO NOT PLAY THE BREAKOUTS. Always wait for price to come back to test the breakout/breakdown area and resume off. This is just a general good trading principle. Also, don't play in No Man's Land. If my charts seem overly simple, that's because they are. Trading is complex so I try to make it look really easy. I focus on major support/resistance lines that provide entries into the direction of the trend. This has served me well and made trading a lot simpler and my previous posts have been spot on week after week using this method. Remember: "When it feels really right, it's probably wrong. When it feels really wrong, it's probably right." Good luck trading. Don't forget to support me by hitting the like button.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by XYZ-Trader-
12
Week of Nov. 2, 2020 (Election Week) - SPYAMEX:SPY Two ideas have been drawn and both have hit the first upper ascending trend line. We have a possible Bullish Flag Continuation and Bearish Descending Triangle bias ideas. The Bullish Flag Continuation is drawn in red and the Descending Triangle is drawn in green. The Descending Triangle in its infancy and represents a continuation pattern. Spy is currently in a downtrend from October 12, 2020. For this pattern to qualify, there must be a breakdown of the support line. There needs to be at least two or more touches on the horizontal line. However, the lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. Also, at least two or more touches are required to form the upper descending trend line. If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid (the price should go down diagonally). Generally, the duration of a descending triangle can be anywhere from 1-3 week or 1-3 months. For this pattern to be valid, it must break support to confirm the breakout. The best practice is to wait at least 2-3% from breakout for confirmation. I have extended the entrance for the shorts because it was too near to support2 and a retrace is expected. If you’d like to enter at the standar 2-3% from the breakout, do so at your own risk. There are two different short entrance points drawn out. The first entrance is more ideal for the trader.Both short entrances are marked with a red price tag at $321.21 and the take profit is marked with a green price tag of $317.28. About midway through the 2nd entrance I have marked a trim profit at $320.15 due to a convergence of patterns and a possible bear trap. If this pattern holds, it is recommended that you either trim profits and leave a runner for the greater fall or hedge with a call option at this point. If we bounce around $320.15, we could have possibly hit a bear trap and were in a Bullish Flag Continuation the entire time. The pattern then would be confirmed once the price breaks the red falling support line at around $323.40. The Bullish Flag Continuation is in its infancy and represents a bullish breakout. The Flag Continuation pattern forms through parallel lines that developed as a pullback from an uptrend. The rectangle develops from two trend-lines which form the support and resistance until the price breaks out. The flag will have sloping trend-lines and the slope should move in the opposite direction to the original price movement. Once the price breaks the resistance or support line, this creates the buy/call option or sell/put option signal. The best practice is to wait at least 2-3% from breakout for confirmation. This is also a short term pattern lasting 1-4 weeks. The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag to estimate the advance or decline. I’ve used the pivot point at $329.54 to determine an exiting strategy. As of 9:30 AM on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020 the technical analysts summary on the one day is showing a strong sell on the moving averages and neutral on the oscillators, giving us a total summary of SELL. drive.google.com Quote from: www.benzinga.com BNY Mellon's Liz Young on CNBC's "Halftime Report" discussed the potential volatility in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY amid the presidential election next week. "I wouldn't count out election lasting until early December," said Young. 'This is not the last bit of volatility we'll see before the end of November." Below Snippet from: www.cnbc.com The last time there was a contested presidential election, the S&P 500 and technology stocks tanked. The presidential election of 2000 occurred amid a dotcom bubble bursting, interest rates rising and weak earnings from bellwether stocks like Apple and Bank of America. The 2020 stock market features near-zero interest rates, and a dominant position in the S&P 500 for Apple and the tech sector more broadly. But one thing is likely for investors: volatility. In 2000, it took five weeks to know the outcome of the presidential race. Over that timeframe, there were recounts and court rulings that added to market volatility for the S&P 500, which fell by 7.8% from Election Day 2000 through year-end. But it’s a mistake to view the tech selloff as an election event, according to an analysis by DataTrek Research. Concerns about tech sector profitability, interest rate hikes to combat inflation, and a slowing U.S. economy were bigger factors at that time, as big names like Apple and Bank of America disappointed investors on earnings in Q4 2000. The bursting of the dot com bubble was the biggest headwind for the S&P 500 in Q4 2000. In 2020, it may be better to watch another segment of the market closely in a contested election period: the Russell 2000. drive.google.com The Russell outperformed the S&P from Election Day 2000 through year-end, declining by 4.4% versus an S&P 500 drop of 7.8%. And from the court’s decision on December 12 through year-end, the Russell was up 1.2%and the S&P was down 3.7%. A pro-business incoming president likely helped small-caps given their outsized exposure to U.S. economic growth versus large-caps. The S&P 500′s gains were also more muted heading into year-end than the Russell amid its greater tech weighting and the overhang of weak fundamentals for that sector. With Biden’s planned corporate tax hikes, I can see a hefty sell-off if he is elected president. A Trump versus Biden contested election result could favor more defensive plays until a winner is known, but likely as a compounding effect on the current Covid-related macroeconomic backdrop. In the current market, it’s been renewable energy stocks, not oil and gas stocks, which have boomed since the March bottom. In the end, the question isn’t which stocks — whether tech stocks, or any stocks — might tank amid election squabbling. It’s what stocks to buy after market volatility takes its toll to gain the quickest rebound in the U.S. market. Think small, according to DataTrek. “Small caps should outperform from a contested 2020 outcome like they did in 2000, especially if Congress passes more fiscal stimulus to help spur U.S. consumer spending given their outsized exposure to the US economy,” said Jessica Rabe, DataTrek co-founder. If an outright cleat winner is not called on election night I believe the SPY sentiment will be bearish, especially when the inevitable Trump tweet occurs.
AMEX:SPY
by NightMan_FutureMan
3
WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR 11/1/2020THIS WEEK IS ELECTION WEEK!!! 1) Go Vote and 2) we should see some interesting movement with the US Dollar. Ideally I would like it to continue to the up side since a Daily high was broken and I have a nice setup on EU, but it also does have the potential to get weak so I will wait until I have confirmation. The Yen didn't break the high I was looking at last week but it did come down and retest the 4H W and is chillin in that area so we shall see what happens this week. Bank Holiday tomorrow so I don't expect to see any real movement until Tuesday or Wednesday. With that being said, ideally I would like it to continue to the upside but if the US Dollar continues to get bullish, we might see some consolidation on UJ. Gold and SPX are showing some bearish vibes so I'll continue to look for selling opportunities this week post election cause honestly, I'm really not sure how it is going to effect those two. Let me know if y'all seeing what I am seeing. Have a great week of trading!!
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn3986846
5
$DXY Flat before #ElectionDay$DXY is looking it wants to bottom. These are the elements in favors of bulls: A recent bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. The RSI has found support on 40 level The RSI divergence perfectly matches the end of a bearish Wave5 The Bullish Wave 2 has been triggered and marked a low signaled by S34 and A55 exhaustion points However, there are still some things in favors of bears: The bearish countdown which started on SU9 (Aug 6) is not over (bar 7/13) To complete this countdown, $DXY needs to close back near the bearish Wave 3 target (@92) A potential bearish wave 2 is also in progress TDST Resistance has not been breached yet To get a clear direction, we will probably have to wait for the results of the elections. IF $DXY closes above @94.5 a bullish wave 3 should be favored with a first target near @96 Otherwise, a further decline remains likely, with a bearish wave 3 target near @92
TVC:DXYShort
by MATHR3E
1
DXY - Does 1972 and 1976 = 2016 and 2020?The USD tends to get a bump after a U.S. Presidential election but recall that the USD put in a massive top 6 weeks after the 2016 election. The same thing happened when Nixon was elected in 1972. In the 4 years that followed, the USD dropped sharply and rebounded. Sound similar? In 1976, the USD held up for a month after Carter was elected before getting absolutely demolished over the next 2 years as inflation exploded. Now that’s a story I can buy. Regardless of who wins next week, it’s easy to imagine many throwing in the towel on the ‘inflation trade’ if the USD were to hold up for another month…just when it’ll be time to put that trade on in size. This was originally published at scandex.com
INDEX:DXY
by jsaettele
1
US Presidential Elections and Investment Strategies ExplainedDisclaimer: this is a completely APOLITICAL analysis based solely on facts and my personal insight. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. In this analysis, I’ll be discussing my own thoughts on the elections, the effect on the stock market, and what we can do as investors. To begin with, my guess is that Trump’s chances of getting re-elected is higher due to a few reasons: - Shy Trumpers: We have seen Clinton dominate the polls for the previous election, underestimating the number of conservatives who weren’t open about their political views - The Democratic Criteria: Traditionally, democratic candidates who won the elections qualified for either one of these: 1) Someone who had the presidential aura and vibe to begin with, absolutely dominating the campaign over his republican counterpart Ex) Franklin D. Roosevelt, JFK 2) Someone people never even imagined would be president Ex) Barack Obama Biden is a political veteran, and someone who isn’t unexpected, as he’s the former vice president. Therefore, he doesn’t fit the conventional model of democratic candidates who have won the presidential elections. However , there are always elements of surprise, and no one can really accurately predict the results. The real surprise is that the result of the election does not have a direct impact on the stock market . Generally, investors tend to be more conservative than liberal. This is due to the fact that republicans are generally more: - Business friendly - Pro Free Market - Less prone to regulations - In support of the wealthy class The psychological aspect of these traders is also reflected in the market. However, data suggests otherwise: Above in the chart, we can see the profitability comparisons of a case when a democrat is newly elected, in contrast to a case when a republican is re-elected. This is data from the S&P500 from 1924 to 2017. Market participants believed that the economy and the stock market would underperform with a democrat as president, because liberals tend to focus on distribution of wealth more so than the accumulation of it. However, in the inaugural year, the stock market demonstrates huge growth under the democrat president. This is because they start to realize that the distribution of wealth isn’t done as well as the president said it would be. In other words, people notice that having a democrat president isn’t necessarily bad for the economy. In the same context, people have high hopes for a republican president to lead the economy upwards, but the republican president won’t do anything extraordinary compared to the democrat president. As such, the inaugural year returns are much lower. Thus, considering everything, there isn’t much of a difference in the overall returns of a stock market under either a republic or democrat president. What matters more than the president’s political stance is market timing. So what should we do as investors? Based on the data of the stock market, and the psychological insight we can get from how investors react, our plan as investors can be organized as follows: 1. If Trump Gets Re-elected The highest probable case for the stock market is that we see the market continue its uptrend for the short term. As I have previously mentioned in my other analysis, the current market is driven heavily by momentum, and Trump’s re-election will be identified as bullish news by investors. (Above is the analysis on the current Nasdaq’s uptrend) As such, in case Trump gets re-elected, it would be best to wait to see the market reach overbought territories for the short term, in order to cash out and wait for the next dip to buy in. 2. If Biden Gets Elected The highest probable case for the stock market when Biden gets elected, is to see a temporary dip in the market. As the market is driven by momentum, investors’ fear, doubt, and uncertainty will be reflected in the market, leading to a short term correction. However, as mentioned in my other analysis (chart above), the fundamentals of the companies sustaining indices such as the S&P500 or the Nasdaq index are solid. As such, over the long run, the news of Biden getting elected itself will not have any negative impacts on the stock market, and the correction will be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity for the long term. Conclusion In summary, no one can accurately predict future events, or the market’s price action or reaction to such events. What we can, and need to do, is be prepared for all probable cases of outcomes. Above, I have provided my own take on the current situation, and how I plan on preparing for the volatility to come. These are the steps you need to follow to do your own research and analysis: 1. Establish a hypothesis, and conduct research and look for data to back it up 2. Think of all probable cases 3. Weigh in probabilities to all those cases 4. Think of an investment plan to prepare for all probable cases 5. Test your hypothesis 6. Revise your decision and thought process, and analyze why you were (in)correct. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by Michael_Wang_Official
54
AUDCAD pair is looking obvious for trend reverseWe are looking audcad for trend reverse pattern BUT we need more proofs then only picture. We are giving you away possible options. Trend description Trend way hasn't reverse yet. Price is at first testing perioud. The question is: Are we going to continue sell? If price will follow one of breaking options, your job as Elite trader is to focus at breaking spots and momentum story. 1. Option Buyers are going to test lower low straight away 2. Option, might happen with strong volume from sellers side - use our Elite indicator tool and follow momentum story 3. Option - Buyers might push price even higher. If this is going to happen, do not trade this until first resistance level is broken and retraced. Trending: Possible sell reverse. Still at decision zone. If trend will reverse, then price could go much lower then you could imagine. Thank you for following us Don't miss our every day analysis. Also do not miss AUDJPY D1 analysis from yesterday * Elitefxacademy
Short
by EliteFxAcademy
Biggest market CRASH ever in human history incoming!The MASSIVE lockdown is about to come in all of Europe, so i think the MASSIVE CRASH is also coming find ourselves facing one of the largest bull trap which has ever had in history many people is in denial and long all ETF and imagine that the markets will go up ad for ever because of monetary support of FED Do not tell me that “the market already priced this” you sincerely think that we priced GDP will very likely go down more than 20% in many countries, probably also including the US? we find ourselves in one of the biggest global crises since 1929 if we count stats Do no say it's just a simple virus in fact who cares whether it is a basic flu or not but the political consequences of lockdown and other measures is here without counting the probable future political crisis in the USA due to the likely contestation of the presidential election results and the probable lockdown of democratic states I'm amazed to see so many bullish people currently who don't want to see the reality the of the economy number in the face it's funny how so many people were bearish in 2017 and 2018 when there was no reason to be bearish on this on the market and that now when there are clear signal of recession people are bullish but here it is always like that this is what is called the famous dead cat bounce and here Massives natural selection is coming sorry to say a lot people investing on market right now they thought to be the best thinking market will go up for ever like crypto in 2017 thinking central bank will support market for ever many stats show never so many people invested on market since years a lot people come since the lockdown this is one biggest bull trap ever the crash might even be bigger than 1929 the price is still higher than in 2019 do you really think the situation is really better than 2019 ? no i can guess, I warned you I hope you have a good reason to keep your positions long but I think that the most reasonable is no positions so wait-and-see now Feel free to share your thought in comment!
SP:SPXShort
by LegoTonix
8
AUD/CAD Short-Sighted Bull RallyLet's think about this. The Australian Dollar is considered a risk-on asset who has high trade tensions with its biggest trade partner. Risk-on Equities are falling, so why shouldn't the AUD fall too. Well, the market is short-sightedly buying over the good CPI numbers which are front-loaded. I expect to see the AUD fall more in line with other risk assets. Of course, this rally is partially due to CAD weakness as well (due to oil), but the CAD is a safer asset than the AUD. Remember I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
S&P Analysis Week of 10/24/2020: The Calm Before the Storm?The week before the election. Will market's make a big move or wait until next week? This week has a lot of information on the chart. I generally try to keep my chart's as simple as possible, focusing on major areas of support and resistance and trading based on price action/setup. I try my hardest to not let my bias drive my trading. However, price is still in an uptrend but starting to show a lot of bearish patterns and breakdowns. Price has a lot of work to get above all time highs again. Note: Price originally formed a bullish flag pattern/channel, but since has started building a more bearish wedge (consolidation zone). At this point, price is building energy (has been trapped in the consolidation zone for almost all of last week) and when it breaks, it will break hard to the upside or downside. It is impossible to know with certainty which way it will break (which is why I labeled this small consolidation area 'No Man's Land.' My two main trade setups are a break above (with retest) ES 3535 or breakdown below (with retest) ES 3400. I did include a trade within No Man's land that someone could technically take if it breaks above the consolidation zone (after a retest). However, I labeled this risky because of the multiple upper resistance trend lines and horizontal lines above this area. If you do take this, be sure to have a tight stop loss and move your stop loss to break even when you hit resistance. I think it's better to get stopped out at break even if you do get into this trade and it starts to print. A break even trade is better than a loss (especially taking it in a No Man's Land area). I'm not really confident the markets will give any good trades this week. I am not anticipating any large moves outside No Man's Land prior to the elections in the U.S. next week. I could see further consolidation within the No Man's Land area. I also don't think it matters who wins the election because the market is going to do whatever it has planned. The one thing that will impact the volatility is clarity in the results of the election. If it looks like it's going to be a battle to declare a winner, then you can definitely assume more volatility. However, the market is still going to go in the direction it would have regardless of results. Hope that makes sense. Do not play the breakouts or breakdowns. Always wait for price to come back to test the breakout/breakdown area and resume off. This is just a general good trading principle. Remember: "When it feels really right, it's probably wrong. When it feels really wrong, it's probably right." Good luck trading. Don't forget to support me by hitting the like button. Note: I've switched from using the symbol SPX500 in my chart to using the ES futures contract because I trade off the ES and it makes my life easier putting my chart on this symbol. The trade setups should be the same, just different numbers. The ES tends to line up more closely with the numbers on SPY.
CME_MINI:ESZ2020
by XYZ-Trader-
2