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Election2024

XAU/USD to continue dropping?From both technical and fundamental analysis I believe we should be seeing the beginning of a gold drop. Gold has been nothing but bullish with extreme euphoric movement. Following Donald Trumps win in the American election we can expect the dollar to begin its bullish ascent meaning that its time for the XAU/USD to finally start its descent. from my charts we can see that I predict a slight bullish move from the market open reacting of an 8H Imbalance taking Asian high liquidity from the upside and reacting from another 8H IMB to ultimately continue in its downtrend at least until the daily zone that caused a previous break of structure to the upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JamelCapital
A Silver Lining in BrazilThe USDBRL recently broke above a descending channel, signaling further BRL weakness; an unusual occurrence given the ongoing shift to easing cycles by major global central banks. Figure 1: Major Central Banks Begun Rate Cuts; USDBRL Rises Instead On September 18th, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 basis points, marking its first reduction since the pandemic. Several other central banks, such as Bank of Canada (BOC), European Central Bank (ECB), have continued their ongoing rate cut cycle in the past few months. While uncertainties remain about the pace and extent of these cuts, there is a clear consensus among major central banks to adopt a dovish stance. Historically, monetary decisions by major central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), have directly influenced the USDBRL exchange rate. Higher U.S. rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the USD and weakening the BRL. Consequently, one would expect USDBRL to continue trending lower in line with anticipated rate cuts. Instead, USDBRL recently surged to levels reminiscent of the pandemic era, defying conventional expectations. Figure 2: Brazil’s Central Bank Acts Swiftly on Inflation The Brazilian Monetary Committee (COPOM) was one of the earliest to react to rising inflation, initiating aggressive rate hikes as early as 2021. This preemptive stance set COPOM apart from other major central banks, which only began tightening in 2022. The much more aggressive hikes helped stabilize the BRL, leading to a sustained downtrend in USDBRL. The COPOM has also been quick to address the recent reversal in inflation trends. A 25-basis-point rate hike in September and November signals the start of a monetary tightening cycle aimed at countering inflationary pressures, especially in food and energy prices. Figure 3: COPOM Leads Global Rate Hike and Rate Cut Cycles Although COPOM began cutting rates in the second half of 2023, global narratives remained focused on the U.S.'s potential for a soft landing. Amid the lack of confidence in post-pandemic recovery and lack of direction in major central banks’ stance on rate hikes, capital stayed in developed markets. However, the latest cuts from major central banks suggest a shift toward more accommodative policies, potentially sparking renewed interest in riskier emerging market assets. Brazil stands to benefit from this shift, particularly following COPOM’s decision to raise rates. Yet, the recent USDBRL breakout suggests a market sentiment that is incongruent with these developments. Figure 4: Divergence Between Brazil’s Ibovespa and S&P 500 Continues This odd occurrence extends to the equity market as well. Back in March 2024, we noted the divergence between the S&P500 and Ibovespa. While the divergence narrowed slightly after, the S&P500 benefited from the subsequent AI-driven gains, and Brazil’s Ibovespa futures lagged. This reflects a broader uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s financial outlook. Figure 5: Brazil’s Overall Flow Remains Positive The trade balance measures the difference between exports and imports of goods and services whereas the capital flows measure the ownership of Brazilian assets by foreigners against foreign assets owned by Brazilians. This can include foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and other investments. Despite episodes of capital outflow in 2024, Brazil’s trade surplus has been relatively stable, which has effectively provided a buffer. Throughout the first half of 2024, the net positive combined inflow signals an overall greater demand for the BRL and ought to provide additional support for the currency. Moreover, China’s recent stimulus measures are likely to have a positive impact on Brazil. As a major commodity exporter, Brazil’s trade figures are closely tied to China’s economic performance. The announcement of China’s 2025 investment budget for construction projects is expected to further boost Brazil’s trade numbers. Though there is different dynamics in international trade and investment, market sentiment still weighs heavily on bearish expectations on Brazil’s financial market over her strong trade capabilities. Figure 6: Brazil’s GDP Shows Robust Growth Brazil’s central bank recently revised its 2024 growth forecast upwards, citing stronger-than-expected data. Brazil’s GDP grew by 1.4%, while real GDP expanded by 2.68%, rebounding after two quarters of stagnation. With annual GDP growth projected to hit 3% by the fourth quarter, Brazil’s economy is proving to be more resilient than market sentiment suggests. Figure 7: Brazil’s Labor Market Remains Robust While the market panicked over U.S. unemployment rate spike in July, Brazil’s unemployment rate has been consistently declining, a clear indication in a significant improvement in labor participation rate. Furthermore, wages, benchmarked using real earnings, have shown significant recovery post-pandemic, reaching new highs. This labor market strength further supports the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy. Figure 8: Brazil’s Fiscal Concerns Weigh on Sentiment Brazil’s rising government debt and debt-to-GDP ratio have raised concerns among investors, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge. While the debt-to-GDP ratio had improved in recent years, 2023 marked a reversal suggesting a possible upward trend that alarmed markets. This is compounded by the government’s recent decision to relax budget targets for 2025 and 2026, extending the timeline to achieve fiscal surplus. Such moves signal a longer period needed to stabilize Brazil’s growing public debt, prompting fears of higher future inflation and questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. Investors worry that these factors could lead to elevated inflation expectations and erode the perceived value of Brazilian assets, demanding higher risk premiums to compensate for fiscal uncertainty. Every Cloud has a Silver Lining Despite these fiscal challenges, Brazil’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Trade surpluses remain robust, GDP growth is positive, and the labor market is strong. COPOM’s recent rate hike signals its determination to combat inflationary pressures. Brazil’s Treasury Secretary, Rogerio Ceron, has pledged to outperform fiscal targets, while Moody’s recent credit rating upgrade in October places Brazil just one notch below investment grade. This contrast between solid economic fundamentals and fiscal instability has created a situation where the market appears overly focused on Brazil’s fiscal risks, potentially mispricing the country’s overall economic health. Consequently, this divergence highlights a lopsided risk premium that investors may exploit, particularly by engaging in relative value trades on the yield curve. Gaining Access to the Yield Curve Brazil’s main interest rate contract, the DI Futures which is traded on the B3 exchange, reflects the expectations of the market for the average DI Rate over a specified period – starting from the trade day (inclusive) to the contract’s maturity date (exclusive). The DI Rate is the average rate for one-day Interbank Deposit Certificates (CDI) traded between different banks but, nowadays, considering their methodology and the current market dynamic, this rate has the same value of Selic Over Rate (Brazilian interest rate benchmark that will follow the Selic Target Rate). The Selic Target Rate is the interest rate set by the COPOM and used by the Brazil Central Bank in the implementation of the monetary policy. Both local and non-local investors trade the DI Futures to express their views and expectations of the Brazilian yield curve, making DI Futures one of the most liquid interest rate instruments traded globally. Furthermore, B3’s COPOM Option Public Dashboard provides a convenient visualization of such market sentiment – Selic Target Rate probabilities decided at each COPOM meeting. These probabilities are calculated with B3’s COPOM Option contracts. All DI Futures contracts are cash settled and payout 100,000 BRL at the end. The total profit and loss will include all the daily settlement to be carried out until the expiry date. Since the DI Futures contract is quoted in rates, to express the view of a rate cut, an investor can simply short the DI Futures in the respective maturities being studied. Furthermore, by analyzing DI Futures rates across shorter maturities, investors can gauge market sentiment regarding future COPOM actions while rates across longer maturities reflect sentiments on the broader outlook on economic conditions. An example to interpret the DI Futures rates and calculate the daily settlement is provided by B3 under the topic of directional positions. Figure 9: Setting up the Trade Evidently in Figure 2, the COPOM has always reacted promptly to address any reversals in inflation trend. As it is incredibly difficult to predict future inflation trends and other economic conditions, it is therefore difficult to predict COPOM’s reaction in the future. As such a directional trade on DI Futures can prove to be relatively risky. As of 10th Nov 2024, the rates quoted by the DI1F35, expressing a 10-year view, and the DI1F27, expressing a 2-year view, are at 12.49% and 13.09% respectively, resulting in an inverted yield curve. Considering Brazil’s strong economic fundamentals, the current inverted yield curve appears overly pessimistic. A trade, constructed with DI1F27 and DI1F35, that anticipates a normalization to a positive yield curve could be profitable. To set up the trade, we would have to calculate the sizing ratio from a Basis Point Value (BPV) neutral perspective. The computation is shown in the table below. We would consider taking a long position on the forward rate strategy by selling 100 DI1F27 futures and buying 55 DI1F35 futures. Each basis point move in the DI1F27 leg is 100 * R$ 14,46 = R$ 1.445 and each basis point move in the DI1F35 leg is 55 * R$ 27,35 = R$ 1.504. Evidently, each basis point move in the DI rate would have roughly the same profit and loss impact on either contract. This is achieved by the BPV neutral calculation. From Figure 9, we would place the stop-loss at -0,65, a historical support line, for a hypothetical maximum loss of 5 basis points, 5 * R$ 1.504 = R$ 7.520. Likewise, we would place the take-profit at 0,93, a historical resistance line, for a hypothetical gain of 153 basis points, 153 * R$ 1.446 = R$ 221.238. In conclusion, this relative value trade would be more favorable. As expressed in this trade, the normalization could happen as a result from either a rise in the DI1F35, a fall in the DI1F27, or a concurrent rise and fall in the DI1F35 and DI1F27 respectively. This proves that a relative value trade is likely to be less risky as compared to a directional bet on the Selic Target Rate using one DI Futures contract.
BMFBOVESPA:DI1F2035Long
by inspirante
Crypto Prices Rally After US Election ResultsMarket Update - November 18, 2024 Donald Trump secured presidential win:  The news is widely seen as a boon to the crypto space because of Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Bitcoin prices hit an all-time high. Solana reached a record 123 million active addresses in October, up over 42% from September:  The network’s user engagement is now reportedly surpassing that of Ethereum by some measures. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the US reported $541 million in outflows on Monday, marking their largest daily decline since May:  But they charged back on Wednesday to make up for the losses, pulling in more than $621 million. Lawyers for Binance and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao have filed a motion to dismiss an amended SEC complaint:  The motion argues that the SEC has failed to provide standards for defining crypto securities. Mt. Gox transferred roughly $2.19 billion worth of BTC to unknown wallets on Monday:  The move follows a recent repayment delay announcement, with creditors still awaiting funds from the exchange’s 2014 collapse. Trump Wins Presidency After Securing Every Swing State Donald Trump was re-elected president of the United States this week, defeating vice president Kamala Harris by securing the 270 votes needed to win the electoral college. The win is widely seen as a positive for the crypto ecosystem. Over the past few months, Trump has pledged his support for digital assets. In July, he spoke at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, promising to set up a national strategic bitcoin reserve and to fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who has filed numerous lawsuits against a range of cryptocurrency exchanges. Additionally, Trump recently launched World Liberty Financial, a DeFi company that plans to sell $30 million in tokens. Meanwhile, Harris never took an official policy stance on regulating crypto. And as vice president, the Biden administration largely had a hawkish stance against crypto companies, with Gensler taking a regulation by litigation approach that largely alienated an asset class that has become increasingly entrenched within traditional finance. The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high this week, surging to more than $76,500 by Thursday afternoon. The crypto ecosystem received another boost earlier in the day when the Federal Reserve said it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.5%-4.75%. Solana Hits Record 123M Monthly Active Addresses Amid Memecoin Boom Solana achieved its highest monthly count of active addresses in October, reaching over 123 million, marking a notable increase from September’s figure and showcasing a recent surge in user activity. Analysts have attributed the growth to the popularity of memecoin trading, spurred by platforms like the token creation app Pump.fun. Some industry reports have also been highlighting Solana’s rising engagement levels, noting there are over 100 million active addresses compared to Ethereum’s 57 million. Additionally, the rise of AI-linked memecoins have reportedly led to this increased activity. With Solana designed as a lower-cost network in comparison to other smart contract compatible chains, this may be playing a role in increased engagement as well, as innovators have difficulty accepting comparatively expensive Ethereum gas prices. 🎈 Topic of the Week: Helium Network (HNT) 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Bitcoin to 100k this year?Hey guyys! So Trump won the election and we have new BTC ATH! And I think we all wondering where we can go now? Let's check the chart and daily we have bullish MA cross, huge volume on this election day. But, another day volume is not pretty nice and looks like more manipulative movement. So I think if we will stay long at the ATH level without moving up with descending volumes, we could potentially see some correction. If we stay above 69k, most likely after this short correction we can go up, if we're not holding this level we can go to 59-63k level. Cause real rally for me, will happen in 2025. What's your ideas, guys? Let's discuss in the comments? Are we going to 100k this year or only in 2025?
by SheTradesHub
2
Mid To long term projection of the SPYGiven Donald Trump's recent victory, the market has felt an optimistic boost. This excitement, could be enough to overcome the current economical warnings that have been prevalent in the previous months. It's impossible to know if these excitements will be enough to send the market into a new and strong rally into overextended territories, or if the market will continue to complain about unaffordable housing, and sustenance. The future is always an unknown variable, however random variables do tend to follow their own distributions to a certain degree. It is always possible for exceptions to occur which prompt price action to get excited at already expensive prices. However, it is intelligent to always take a degree of caution when purchasing expensive securities which are still increasing in price. In these scenarios I suggest waiting for price corrections before purchasing and purchase in small amounts as price decreases to be able to purchase more at lower prices aka cost average. Given Trumps popularity, it's possible that people will become optimistic about the near future, however Trump still has a lot of rivals, which will stop at nothing to fulfill their agenda. The president will be faces with many new challenges these coming 4 years. I wish him the best of luck as he writes history once more. May God bless the future of America, its allies and it people. It's time to see the world change once more.
AMEX:SPY
by DarkMessiah777
$IWM $RTY : Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥 Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥 We will be at ATH's this week: AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA CAPITALCOM:RTY While everyone is buzzing about NASDAQ:TSLA CRYPTOCAP:BTC and how they will continue to skyrocket if election results stick and continue to favor Trump, no one’s talking about SMALL CAPS! Remember, during his last term, small caps had an impressive run. Let’s dive into the technicals in my latest video. In this video, we cover: 1️⃣ Technical Analysis: We’ll analyze charts and multiple indicators, all pointing to AMEX:IWM heading HIGHER. 📈 2️⃣ Patterns: A massive multi-year cup and handle pattern with an ascending triangle breakout is in play. Drop a comment below if you learned something new or want to explore any topics further. Stay tuned for more insights and show some love! LIKE | FOLLOW | SHARE CAPITALCOM:RTY AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA NFA
AMEX:IWMLong
by RonnieV29
How would the market react to a Trump or Kamala victory?In recent days, the financial markets have exhibited increased sluggishness as investors await the outcome of the US elections. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump represent two starkly contrasting visions for the future of the United States. This article will explore the potential effects each candidate could have on key financial assets, including Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and EUR/USD. Oil (Brent) If Kamala Harris secures victory in the election, it is likely that her administration will prioritise renewable energy initiatives and stricter environmental regulations, potentially curtailing the use of fossil fuels. This shift could lead to limitations on oil production and a subsequent decrease in supply. With global demand expected to remain stable, this scenario may initially drive Oil prices higher. Conversely, a win for Donald Trump could result in a relaxation of environmental regulations and an incentive to boost domestic oil production. This approach, often articulated by Trump, may increase US supply available for both domestic consumption and export, potentially leading to lower prices, depending on global demand. Trump's administration might also adopt more aggressive policies towards OPEC, adding to market volatility. Gold (XAU/USD) Kamala Harris is likely to support expansionary fiscal policies, including increased spending on social programs and infrastructure projects. This rise in expenditure may lead to a higher federal deficit, contributing to inflationary pressures and prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) to consider raising interest rates to manage inflation. Higher interest rates could initially weigh on Gold prices, as investors might seek the better yields offered by government bonds. However, ongoing support for international conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Israel, could sustain geopolitical uncertainty, which typically favours Gold as a safe-haven asset. Under a Trump administration, fiscal policies may shift towards tax cuts and reductions in welfare programs. Such cuts could depress government spending and lower aggregate demand, potentially leading to a decrease in inflation and creating room for possible interest rate cuts. Reduced interest rates might drive investors towards equities for better returns or prompt them to seek refuge in Gold during market turmoil. Moreover, Trump's focus on domestic security and diminished global involvement could exacerbate existing conflicts, further elevating Gold prices in the short term. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Kamala Harris has yet to articulate a definitive stance on cryptocurrencies, but the Democratic platform generally leans toward increased regulation. A stricter regulatory environment could deter institutional investment in Bitcoin, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price in the event of a Harris victory. In contrast, Donald Trump has displayed a growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies during his campaign, which could catalyse an initial price appreciation for Bitcoin. Additionally, his rapport with Elon Musk, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, strengthens the case for potential gains in BTC should Trump win. S&P 500 Should Kamala Harris assume office, her administration is likely to continue implementing economic stimulus measures, which could bolster the S&P 500, particularly in the green technology and renewable energy sectors. However, tighter regulations on oil and finance industries might adversely impact certain sectors. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the S&P 500 is plausible, especially if fiscal stimulus supports domestic consumption. On the other hand, a Donald Trump victory could propel the S&P 500 into a strong upward trend, driven by corporate tax cuts and a less interventive regulatory environment. The financial markets tend to react favourably to tax reductions and deregulation, and a decrease in government expenditure could lower inflation in the short term, providing the Fed with room to reduce interest rates. This scenario could enhance credit access and stimulate domestic consumption, benefiting both corporations and the S&P 500. EUR/USD A Kamala Harris presidency may adopt a more cooperative and diplomatic approach to international relations, particularly with the European Union. This stance could strengthen the euro, potentially driving the EUR/USD pair higher due to improved trade relations. Furthermore, robust spending policies might weaken the US dollar, increasing demand for the euro. Conversely, if Donald Trump wins the election, the euro could depreciate against the dollar as his protectionist and aggressive trade policies tend to favour the dollar in the immediate term. Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan underscores his commitment to bolstering domestic trade and the dollar. Consequently, any policy that negatively impacts trade with the EU, such as tariffs or aggressive trade measures, could further weaken the euro while benefiting the USD. Preparing for Diverse Market Outcomes In conclusion, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious could result in markedly different consequences for the financial markets. It is crucial to recognise that the market is likely to wait and observe which policies will be implemented in practice. The repercussions of the US elections may resonate for months ahead as market participants acclimatise to this new reality. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN
by Marketscom
GRASSUSDT.P Higher, but lacking convictionHello everyone! It's U.S. election day, so I'll keep this one short so you can enjoy the election show! Today we’re looking at **GRASS/USDT** on the 30-minute timeframe. The price seems to be moving higher, but I’m seeing a series of lower highs and low volume. The lower highs trendline is pushing the price toward the 200MA. If the 200MA holds and the price breaks above the trendline with an increase in volume, there could be a chance to challenge the previous top. In this scenario, I'd like to see some volume come in to confirm the breakout. Alternatively, I’d prefer to see a brief dip below the 200MA with a bounce from the 0.236 Fibonacci level, supported by volume. Either of these scenarios could lead me to take action. This is not financial advice. Stay safe, and enjoy the day!
G
by vagada
XAU/USD : Gold Set for a Move as U.S. Election Sparks VolatilityBy analyzing the #Gold chart in the 1-hour timeframe, we can observe several reactions to the demand levels we identified. Yesterday, we saw an initial bounce from the $2733 zone, with a 70-pip rise taking it close to $2740. Later, this morning, the price dipped below $2730 and reached the $2727 zone, where it was met with strong demand, resulting in a sharp increase of over 200 pips up to $2745. Currently, gold is trading around $2742, and I expect it to soon make another move toward the liquidity pools above $2745 and $2748. After that, keep an eye on the price reaction at $2752. Note that today is the U.S. election day, and the market may experience significant volatility. Be cautious with your trades! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
Bitcoin’s Fate on U.S. Election Day: Predicting Market MovementsAs the world closely watches today’s U.S. presidential election, the crypto market is gearing up for a reaction that could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s future. Historically, U.S. elections have had a positive impact on cryptocurrencies, and many traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's outlook. With two contrasting candidates—one a proponent of crypto and the other leaning towards regulation—the stakes are high for Bitcoin holders and investors alike. A Trump Win: The Fuel for a Parabolic Bull Run If Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of cryptocurrency, secures the win, the market is likely to respond with a powerful surge. Trump’s favorable stance on digital assets could inspire confidence among crypto investors, sparking a parabolic bull run that may push Bitcoin past its previous all-time high. Many traders are poised to buy into Bitcoin if Trump’s victory is confirmed, anticipating a rush of institutional and retail investment that could propel prices to unprecedented levels. A Kamala Win: The Calm Before the Comeback In contrast, a win for Kamala Harris could trigger an initial wave of panic selling. Harris has shown a more cautious approach toward cryptocurrency, which may incite fear among investors and lead to a sharp pullback. However, it's important to note that strong support zones around $60,000, as indicated in the chart, are expected to buffer any drastic price drops. Despite the potential sell-off, these levels have historically provided resilience and could stabilize Bitcoin, leading to a period of consolidation. Once the initial shock settles and investors digest the news, the market may start to regain strength. Confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamentals could draw investors back, fueling a renewed push towards the all-time high. While a Kamala win might delay the anticipated bull run, the scenario of Bitcoin falling below critical levels like $50,000 or $40,000 remains highly unlikely. Caution: Trading Amidst Volatility For those trading with leverage, today and the coming days present heightened risks. Apart from the election, Thursday’s FOMC meeting will bring the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision, a significant event that could add volatility to an already charged market. It’s essential to tread carefully, as both events could create sudden price swings and impact liquidity. In conclusion, regardless of who wins, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears resilient. A Trump win may bring immediate bullish momentum, while a Kamala win might usher in short-term turbulence but is unlikely to derail Bitcoin’s upward trajectory entirely. Traders and investors should brace for a dynamic week, as Bitcoin prepares to navigate these significant events. Trade safe everyone, Cheers!
by MadeByAK
8
BTC/USDT.P UpdateIf we ignore the election, we had a bearish weekly candle close this past week so I anticipate a sizeable pull back. If we considering election effects, usually the election week is bearish and then an unconditional rally comes soon after; typically it will last till the end of the year. If this pattern holds true, I would personally hedge a trade to profit on both sides. I'm still long term BTC bullish, but this week, I will consider shorting to hedge against my longs. I have marked a few places where I would take TPs on the short and DCA for my longs for you to reference. Trade safely! @Nate Alert
by Nate36989
XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting US ElectionsGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In today's analysis, I have drawn trade scenarios for you based on various confirmations In each circle we look for one-hour timeframe candles to confirm the expected trend. After a grueling and controversial campaign season, the US election will be held this week. Although many experts believe a clear winner is unlikely to be announced on Wednesday, much of the uncertainty surrounding the US political landscape is expected to ease next week, which may not bode well for gold. This precious metal had significant momentum last month due to the election fluctuations. Market analysts pointed out that the improvement of former US President Donald Trump's chances of victory and the creation of a potential "red wave" (a Republican victory) in Congress raised concerns about the continued unabated increase in government spending. In recent weeks, that fear has extended to either party's control of the White House and both houses of Congress. However, there is a famous saying in the financial markets for times like this: "Buy the rumor and sell the news." Last week, gold prices hit an all-time high above $2,800 an ounce as investors weighed in on rumors surrounding the US election. Dennis Gartman, a noted commodity investor, said he has become more cautious about gold as it draws more attention from investors. However, he added that despite any near-term weakness, gold's long-term fundamentals are well supportive of prices. "The main trend is still bullish," he said. Aside from the geopolitical turmoil created by this election cycle, gold remains well-supported by the sluggish US economy and labor market. In October, the US economy added just 12,000 jobs, well below expectations for 100,000 jobs. Some of the weakness can be attributed to fluctuations caused by cyclone devastation in southern states. However, looking beyond this volatility, sharp downward revisions in August and September suggest that the labor market is cooling. At the same time, this week we also saw that inflation is continuously increasing. The main measure of personal consumption expenditures, the U.S. central bank's preferred measure of inflation, showed that consumer prices held steady at 2.7% over the past three months. The Fed is stuck and will continue to cut interest rates as the labor market weakens. While interest rate cuts may not be as aggressive as they would like, higher inflation means lower real interest rates, which will hurt the US dollar and support gold prices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Educated Gambling!! LOL. Call Options that go $POWW or OW!! Were in a Double Bottom and a Bearish Pennant on the daily so who knows, and the chart doesn't look great either. This one is at the top of my degenerate list, pure speculation. My idea is either a big bang or a misfire. I've been buying NASDAQ:POWW $2.50 calls expiring 1/17/25. Started off buying at $15 then $10 and now $5 per call. And sometimes no one is even selling these options when they list for .01 (actually cost $5 min) My thought is NASDAQ:POWW could either run in the next 3 weeks or all the way up to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, hope to at least fill the gap at 2.46 and then get back to June 3rd high of $2.86. Most of us can figure out why it could possibly go parabolic so close to the Election. I hope for God's sake and love of country I'm actually wrong about this and pray for peace. But at the same time, as some of the corrupt powers to be say "never let a crisis go to waste"... Safe Trading Everyone!!
NASDAQ:POWWLong
by JoeKing1
2
The quickening of #BTC RSI & price extremes!I don't make the rules. :) We are just surfing the waves of emotions, of the crowds. Here we have Monthly line chart with the RSI It clearly shows a quickening of the trend and how the 4 year cycle is likely to fail this time around. It is too well know as a theory and will be front ran. (in my opinion) We should get a RSI peak at this rate, around May (could be June ofc) and second lower peak around November (or DEC ) As always good luck in your speculations #Crypto's are highly speculative instruments as we all know During these tops you will be told many stories you must have the wherewith-all to ignore the noise.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by BallaJi
4