Elections
Weekly Review: Awaiting The Elections (Read for Fundamentals) Close to the elections (3rd November)
1. American Election - Tension
2. Stimulus Package – Only positive impact
3. GDPs – 3rd Quarter (slightly better than give some confidence)
4. 3rd Quarter Companies’ earnings – so far, they´ve been good (mostly in tech)
The logic thing would be for investors to keep taking profits ahead of elections and increased volatility.
- What I expect will be small lateral moves, more inclined downside if anything, best option is to wait on the sidelines to see what happens in the elections.
SILVER IS ABOUT TO RALLY IN A HUGE WAY...AS 2020 CLOSES OUT, THERE ARE ABOUT 25% MORE U.S. DOLLARS IN CIRCULATION THAN AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR...
GOLD, SILVER AND CRYPTO SEEM TO BE THE BEST MOVES WHEN LOOKING AT THE TRADITIONAL MARKETS... LOTS OF VOLATILITY TO COME.
AS SILVER TRADES WITH IN THIS ASSESSING WEDGE, WE MUST KNOW THAT ASCENDING WEDGES HAVE A 66% CHANCE OF BREAKING LOWER... BUT, IF AND WHEN ASCENDING WEDGES BREAK HIGHER WE SEE PARABOLIC PRICE GROWTH.
ALWAYS PREPARE FOR ALL POSSIBLE SITUATIONS ..
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NCL Industries (Long Term Strategy)Hi Everyone,
I have come across this nice parabolic Curve Step formation in NCL Industries Limited, this is the most highly prized and sought after pattern. This kind of patterns give quick rewards.
As per the Chart, it has formed the first 2 bases in the Parabolic curve. Usually Parabolic curves will form 4 bases and we sell on the 4th base.
Base 1 formed from - 56 - 77
Base 2 formed from - 77 - 110
Base 3 to be formed from - 110 - 148
Base 4 is the sell point - so we need to keep a sell target of about 148-150
Technical set up looking good along with nice accumulation in the OBV. We are going long on this share with a target of 145-150 in the long term.
Investor Strategy:
Buy the dip with NCL industries with a long term target of 148-150 in three to six months
Disclaimer: This is an education view not for financial advice, if you are enjoying my analysis please follow me for more update and please like and comment :)
Thanks !
Anticipating a breakout to the upside in gold via IAUiShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a passively managed ETF that seeks to match the movement of the price of gold. It provides an investment vehicle for gold by backing shares in the ETF with gold bars held in trust.
After a steady recovery from the trough of March 20th, a trend reversal starting on Aug 5th manifested as a descending triangle (or perhaps a large pennant) that broke out to the downside after 7 weeks.
However, this downside breakout was rebuffed by buyers, perhaps due to the economic and political uncertainty surrounding the pandemic as well as the US presidential election, which at the time of the turn around was 40 days away.
The ETF saw a 4% increase in value over two weeks and has settled into an ascending pennant where resistance is being tested and the lows are higher.
I anticipate a breakout to the upside if the bottom ascending line holds, especially as we near the US presidential election (Nov 3rd). This breakout may occur in the days leading up to the election, or perhaps right afterwards.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
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These ideas are presented as a topic for discussion and do not represent a recommendation to trade a security.
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USDJPY Market Commentary - 21 Oct. 2020A lot of things going on right now. Buyers and sellers more stressed than ever. Bullish Dollar or Bearish Dollar? Stimulus or not? To be or not to be is the next question.
USDJPY a clear path though. JPY seems to win the fight between the safe-havens as it usually does in volatile times. Buyers seemed to have faith in a bullish Dollar and this was apparent till 20 Oct. after they got crushed by bears on a triangle breakout.
105.xx got dominated afterwards. A retest would be a stupid move by buyers at this point because it's way too obvious that JPY bulls are serious. (see EURJPY)
Most election speculations appear to be bullish for the Dollar, This belief is backed by factors like what policy the each of the election rivals is to apply or how investors feel safer by holding USD.
On the technical side, price is performing an 1-2-3 bearish impulse move. The final target for bears appear to be the 104.00 big figure that lines up with the 161.8% extension of Wave 1 which was followed by Wave 2 that saw an end after the fakeout.
For the time being, bears have the control of the price. Bulls are hidden in the bushes of 104.00 and are refilling their guns to snipe back to 105.00
After that, elections result will determine the next move...
DXY - Dollar SellHi trades,
Watch your lower time frame for your sell setups. If the price will aggressively break to the upside this setup will become invalidated. So keep an eye on your lower time frame for sell setups. I do anticipate that the price will be keep falling until the 3rd of November - USA ELECTION. After the election we can anticipate a DXY Dollar index to rise.
RidetheMacro| DOW Jones What's Next?Trade based on Fundamentals and Price action Only.
With RISK MANAGEMENT YOU WILL NEVER LOSS.
S&P 500 EEUU 500Hello good morning I hope you’re right.
A few days ago I published this idea to you, to this day it is the same I have only modified trend and lines by market movement. In the comments, in the 2 comments that our brokers commented that it would follow the second trend, The fall BEARISH .
We believe that in the short term you will see high volatility whit corrections... but in the middle term we’re BULLISH and in the long run we’ lo see. LEAVE YOUR OPINION In the comments 1 or 2, and how they are positioned in short, medium up to elections, and long.
Sincerely L.E.D
In Spain at 13/10/2020
Rising Wedge Gold XAUUSDGold is currently re-testing previous support as resistance in a rising wedge fashion.
We shall see if Gold can break above the wedge.
If it does we are long on Gold til $1955!
Catalysts:
Trump & Covid
Presidential Debates & Elections
Fiscal Stimulus for the U.S
Upcoming Economic Data
Trump vs Covid19 vs ElectionsTrump covid case was what triggered the short term downturn.
The day Trump exits quarantine we also have futures expiration...
The markets till then can correct to that point and also test SMA200 in the excuse of trump health uncertainty. At the same time all retail robinhooders will be terrified since most of them hold long positions forcing them to go vote for Trump!!!
Trump winning covid 3 weeks before elections will give him tremendous boost and momentum towards elections.
U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean ?🎈 Here are the most common economic recovery shapes and what they mean. While economic growth can be measured by any number of metrics—like the stock market or employment rates for example—we’ll focus on GDP.
📍 A V-shaped recovery means that the economy bounces back quickly to its baseline before the crisis, with no hiccups along the way. Growth continues at the same rate as before. This is one of the most optimistic recovery patterns because it implies that the downturn did not cause any lasting damage to the economy.
Under this scenario, the economic damage lasts for a longer period of time before eventually reaching the baseline level of growth again. The economy bounces back, but the damage at the bottom lingers for a while.
📍 In a W-shaped recession, also called a double dip, the economy moves beyond a recession into a period of recovery before falling back down again into another recession. The initial recovery is sometimes known as a bear market rally.
One example: After the oil and inflation crises in 1979, the U.S. fell into two back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981.
📍 An L-shaped recovery is the most pessimistic scenario. In this shape, the economy recovers to a certain degree from a steep drop, but growth never reaches pre-crisis levels for years, if at all. A period of economic stagnation follows.
📍 A recovery scenario resembling the Nike “swoosh” logo is characterized by a steep drop and a gradual recovery, meaning that it takes much longer to return to pre-crisis growth levels than it took to fall into recession.
A variant of this is a square root-shaped recession where growth recovers but then plateaus before reaching pre-crisis levels. Lowenstein says this is his base case scenario.
feel Free to comment below Your Ideas to make things more better.
Thank you 🙏
Sit and Wait on the USDWith the looming US Presidential elections, and the recent mixed messages from the Federal Reserve, the direction of the USD is unclear for now. Wait for more clarity before choosing a side.
Could the USD downtrend be coming to an end? The charts of many currencies vs the USD are quite inconclusive on where the USD is headed in the near term. Charts do not always have to point up or down. They can often show signs of indecision as there are many conflicting factors driving the USD at the moment. Stay neutral and wait for clearer opportunities for now.
DXY possible scenarioIt's been a long time..
I brought here some ideas for the dollar index for the upcoming weeks. As you know, the elections are around the corner and that should trgger some high volatility movements.
On the screen, you can see a bearish movement over the last months, which shows the weakness of the USDOLLAR. On my opinion, that movment is a first bearish impulse of the index, which has eneded on the last fifth impulse. Is probably to see an "ABC" correction on the nexts weeks, testing the 38.6%-78.6% fibonacci retracement ( 93-96). Then, we could see a rejection of that levels and a next bearish impulse below the 90.00 level.
I'll keep updating the analysis..