Tesla - Recession poised to weigh on TSLA stock for longerThe next day after its earnings release for Q3 2022, shares of Tesla fell 6.65% by the closing bell. This move came despite record-breaking revenue being reported by the company, but one, which missed analysts' estimates. The company's report stated that the operating margin reached 17.2% and free cash flow exceeded 8.9 bn. U.S. dollars for the past 12 months.
In addition to that, the company said it would continue to focus on increasing production and development of its current projects. In the third quarter, Tesla produced over 365,000 vehicles and delivered over 343,000 of them, putting these figures substantially higher than those for previous quarters.
Overall, the earnings report was solid. But that does not change the fact a recession is underway, and the stock is down approximately 50% from its all-time-high value. While that looks like a bargain to the past, we do not think so. In our opinion, the increasing cost of electricity (or even its unavailability in some countries because of the energy crisis) will pose a short-term obstacle to selling more cars for Tesla in Europe.
Furthermore, with people's declining savings, we expect consumers' willingness to buy vehicles to fall dramatically in the next year. Indeed, we think this will pose another substantial challenge for the company in 2023. Because of that, we believe now is not the time to buy this stock; instead, we will stay on the sidelines and wait. Our views are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the Tesla stock deep in the bear market territory, down approximately 50% from its all-time-high value.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD is bearish but flattening. RSI and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The image above displays the daily chart of Tesla stock. It also shows simple support/resistance levels. We will monitor the price and its ability to hold above/below the immediate support; if the price fails to hold above it, it will be bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Electriccars
TESLA Ahead of the first 1D Golden Cross since August 2021.Tesla (TSLA) confirmed the Bull Flag from our last analysis one month ago and broke out of it while holding twice the Higher Lows trend-line from the June 16 Low:
The last touch was three days ago and naturally that is giving the stock a short-term (at least) boost. The price completed the 1D MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross last month but now is ahead of the critical Golden Cross formation (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)). If completed, it will be the first occurrence since August 2021. Technically that should be a strong bullish signal but the Higher Lows trend-line plays an equally important role. If broken the uptrend may turn into the (green) Rectangle pattern that has kept the price from breaking above 315.00 three times.
This is approximately where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is and if broken we can finally see the bullish rally completing a new Lower High at the top of the long-term Channel Down. A break below the Rectangle, can test the 0.236 Fibonacci as the next Support level. Keep an eye on the MACD (1W time-frame). It is still on a Bullish Cross but a new Bearish Cross could mean a new round of medium-term selling towards the bottom of the Channel Down, much like the Jan 05 and April 28 Bearish Crosses.
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Tesla Gets TestyOver the past few years, not many companies have seen the hype that Tesla has when it comes to its stock performance.
Starting at $1.10 in 2010 and pushing up to the range of $1200 near a decade later (before the stock split), early investors have enjoyed monumentally unfettered growth in profits.
A side-effect of this historical growth has been undeniable euphoria. There is no better drug for a trader to experience. Even after Elon Musk sold large amounts of his shares, euphoria is what kept many retail investors loyally invested. The only reward to come was a loss of peak gains.
Although Tesla has more juice in the battery pack and could easily extend its value towards $520 in the months ahead, the pending correction will be monstrous and one that any investor should want to protect themselves against.
See related ideas below:
Tesla Prepares for Major Dip... (before a stock split was actualized, the waves showed that a return below $500 was very likely to come).
Tesla Returns to $50... (a supremely immature call. The current position of the pattern was also incorrect however, the retest level below $50 is very likely to manifest beyond 2023).
TESLA Bull Flag almost completed. Strong chances for $340 in OctTesla (TSLA) is trading within a Channel Down ever since the August 04 High, which following the rally since June 16, whose Higher Lows trend-line is intact, can be viewed as a technical Bull Flag formation. This pattern is common after strong rallies and Tesla's has been more than +50% within a 3 month span, with profit taking on the medium-term coming as a natural reaction.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) are intact and still supporting. In fact the MA50 is about to cross above the MA100 for the first Bullish Cross pattern since August 12 2021. With the MACD on the 1W time-frame still on a strong Bullish Cross, as long as the June 16 HL hold, it is more likely to see a new rebound towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the top of the long-term Channel Down.
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DTRUY LONG THE SMART ELECTRIC TRUCK BET$15 before end of 2023. Compared To competitors in the same field daimler has been making trucks since 1896, they have been producing and manufacturing trucks while competitors like NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:PLUG , NYSE:HYLN and NASDAQ:NKLA don't come close to the years of experience OTC:DTRUY has.
Smarter And Safe Trucks
Daimler will not only be creating electric trucks, they will also be utilizing nvidia's smart driving technology.
Unlike other companies trying to get into the ev trucking business, if Electric trucking turns out to not be a feasible en devour unlike its competitors Daimler is already manufacturing and selling trucks buses and vans across the globe.
Market | Q2FY19 |Q3FY19 |Q4FY19 |Q1FY20 |Q2FY20
Truck Unit Sales (units) |126,474 | 125,382 | 120,745 | 92,468 |57,945
EU30 |19,836 | 19,942 | 21,075 |13,197 | 9,675
NorthAmerica | 54,533 | 53,240 | 45,549 | 35,550 | 20,023
Latin America | 10,215 | 11,569 | 12,139 | 6,996 | 6,208
Asia | 33,982 | 33,550 | 33,382 | 30,651 |17,739
Rest Of the World | 7,908 | 7,081 | 8,600 | 6,074 |4,300
Target Price 19.10
Upside 52%
SQM: Chilean Lithium Stock Nears Triple DigitsSociedad Quimica y Minera is a Chilean fertilizer company reinventing itself as a lithium provider. Today we’re looking at some potentially bullish patterns as it squeezes back toward triple digits.
First are the pair of strong earnings reports on March 2 and May 19. The initial headline lifted SQM above its previous all-time high from July 2011. The second one helped propel the stock past $100, where it stalled and pulled back in June.
However it didn’t pull back much. Price stabilized near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-July and returned above $99. It then took a small breather, which was quickly met with buyers stepping in to defend the 50-day SMA.
Next you have the trendline along the May peak and the recent highs. SQM is currently challenging that resistance.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since late July. That, plus the rising MACD, may suggest the shorter-term trend is turning more bullish.
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TESLA on a wild rise just as expected a month agoOur last analysis on Tesla (TSLA) was exactly 1 month ago, where we stated the importance of breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line in order to initiate a rally:
As you see, the Double Bottom accurately signaled the end of the correction and the break above the Lower Highs, the start of a new rally. The rally is technically the sequence to a new Lower High of the long-term pattern on Tesla which has been a Channel Down since November 04. The price has now turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and on the short-term is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a symmetrical sequence by all means to the previous rebound to the top of the Channel Down last March and those similarities have helped as projected this move. On the long-term we are targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the previous Low would invalidate this and instead signal a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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7/17/22 LILi Auto Inc. ( NASDAQ:LI )
Sector: Consumer Durables (Motor Vehicles)
Market Capitalization: $37.118B
Current Price: $38.45
Breakout price: $39.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $38.10-$36.15
Price Target: $40.50-$41.40 (1st), $47.30-$48.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 13-15d (1st), 54-58d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $LI 8/19/22 40c, $LI 9/16/22 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.70/contract, $3.80/contract
BTC's market structure compared to NIO's (EV) shows potentialHey, here I share an idea.
NIO is a Chinese EV's company.
I don't have some strong arguments to compare these two, but I believe we can see a reflect of the risk's markets on their structure.
That said, I believe that BTC did find a bottom on 30k and could test higher, between 46k and 50k.
I would long this with no leverage, just in case it does test 20k later.
Do you think the MAs are showing some information?
Let me your opinion in the comments.
$TSLA TESLA Motors Bearish Pennant vs Bear Flag$TSLA TESLA
I wouldn't ignore this bearish pennant on the 1 Day - daily.
It had a death cross on daily at the end of MAY. This is generally a lagging indicator and it appears it might be ready to show out after printing a bearish consolidating pattern.
Support levels are marked below. Also a GAP marked in RED.
I am wishful hoping the gap will fill because I would love to load up on shares but I'm not sure if it will go that low ever again.
Crude Oil - 140 dollars region to be expected this year?It doesn't look like it's going to get any better for Crude Oil in terms of pricing. The incoming wave 4 could last pretty long before reaching new highs in 2024.
I've projected the wave (iii) between 338.2% and 361.8%.
Time to think about buying an electric car?
Will Elon musk & Tesla change the WorldThe statistics are between $732 - $950 (1 Year).
After delaying virtually all new vehicle launches for the last few years,
Elon Musk has now set a strong timeline for Tesla to bring Cybertruck, Roadster, and Tesla Semi to production in 2023.
Once these products and more come out, Tesla will blow up again by at least $1.500.
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest says Tesla stock will more than quadruple in price by 2026 if it can deliver a network of self-driving taxis.
ARK Invest reiterated its bullish view on Tesla on Monday with a $4,600 price target by 2026.
TESLA Strong short-term BuyTesla (TSLA) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern ever since its November 04 2021 All Time High but is within a short-term Descending Triangle since May. Yesterday the price tested the Lower Highs of that Triangle. The pattern's Support has so far formed a Double Bottom exactly on the wider Channel Down pattern Lower Lows. A break above the Lower Highs of the Triangle should be enough to kick start the next wave to the top of the Channel Down, similar to the March 17 bullish break-out. The 1W RSI is on Higher Lows.
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NIO: Deliveries up YOY!!NIO
Short Term - We look to Buy at 16.34 (stop at 11.63)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. They reported a 11% year on year rise in deliveries which is good fundamentally. The trend of higher lows is located at 14.00. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 16.00 level.
Our profit targets will be 27.48 and 32.00
Resistance: 24.00 / 34.00 / 45.00
Support: 16.00 / 12.00 / 5.00
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NIO (NIO) | Starting To Get Attractive Around $10Hi,
Criteria:
1. Channel projection (quite subjective)
2. Mid-number $10
3. Fibo Extension
4. Previous minor resistance can play a role inside the zone
5. Potential gap fill
Do your own research and if it matches with mine you are ready to go.
Regards,
Vaido
Albemarle - Swing trade opportunityToday, an opening gap appeared on the daily chart of Albemarle; as a result, this offers an opportunity for a simple trade setup. We are currently bearish on Albemarle and expect a complete retracement of the opening gap. Therefore, we would like to set a price target for Alb at 198.44 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Albemarle opened up almost 7%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. However, we think these are false bullish signals. We conclude this from a low ADX value. The daily time frame is deceptive.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the short-trade setup.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, and ADX contains a low value. That indicates the presence of a very weak trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
ZEV all time low | Falling Wedge Chart PatternZEV Lightning eMotors manufactures zero-emission commercial fleet vehicles and powertrains to commercial fleets, large enterprises, original equipment manufacturers, and governments in the US.
In the chart we can see a huge Falling Wedge Pattern, which is a bullish sign.
On 3/29/2022 DA Davidson brokerage Lower the Price Target Buy rating from $17.00 to $13.00
My price target is the 9.30 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RIVN you can still buy it cheaper than Soros If you haven`t bought the all time low here:
then you should know that you can still buy cheaper than George Soros.
Billionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
My short term price target is 69.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TESLA on a major bullish break-out. Possible $1500 target in Q3.Tesla (TSLA) broke this week above the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line, giving a strong bullish signal. The pattern is replicating the break-out sequence of June 2021. In fact the whole Peak-Correction Cycle of January - June 2021 is identical to that of November 2021 - March 2022 (so far).
As this 1D chart shows, both patterns bottomed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the RSI Double Bottoming around the 30.00 reading. What followed in July - September 2021 after the Lower Highs bullish break-out, was a slow Channel Up that ended violently with a parabolic rally just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level. That level is at $1650 from the recent market bottom so we are setting a target zone within $1500 - $1650 by the end of Q3.
* BONUS MATERIAL *
See how well another tech giant, Apple, is performing after our March 11 buy call exactly on the market bottom:
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