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How long will it take Rivian to get back to its IPO price?Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), the budding electric vehicle maker, initially bank-rolled by the likes of Ford (NYSE: F) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), is currently trading 80% lower than its peak since listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Bear in mind that Rivian was listed on the Nasdaq in November 2021, when you had to be very unlucky not to make money in the stock market, especially as a company working in the electric vehicle domain. In a sign of the jubilant (and bygone?) era, within days of listing, investor exuberance had pushed RIVN up by 115%, to US $170 per share. RIVN’s market electricity has fizzled in the following five months and could do with a recharge. The Rivian stock price is currently trading very close to an all-time low, at US $37.00, 80% lower than its all-time high. In contrast, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), a company which Rivian investors hope can be emulated, is trading 25% lower than its all-time high (US $1,200 vs US $900), which it reached in November 2021 (roughly the same time Rivian reached its all-time high). RIV only just begun As illustrated by its latest earnings call, Rivian has a momentous scope for growth. In its Full Year 2021 earnings call, which was released on March 10, 2022, Rivian reported its first bout of revenue, a tiny US $55 million against a cost of revenue of US $520 million and other operating expenses (mainly R&D and administration) of US $3.7 billion. Consequently, Rivian reported a total net loss (inclusive of all costs) of US $4.7 billion for the full year. The massive discrepancy between the company’s revenue and costs is a natural part of its growing pains. The automobile industry’s huge barrier to entry means that Rivian expects to be making a net loss for some time. However, it does expect to be profit-neutral by the end of the next financial year, and this might be what is more important for investors following the company. No fast-charging solution Rivian is still valued at over US $30 billion and far from a bust. However, it will perhaps take years for the company to charge its stock price back up to its IPO price of US $78.00. Even in the age of outsized valuations for EV companies and some residual investor exuberance in the market, investor confidence is butting up against obstacles such as the infamous chip-shortage affecting numerous car companies and tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve. To hasten the process and to overcome some of these obstacles on its way back to its IPO price, Rivian may have make better use of its US $18 billion cash reserve and carve out more than its planned 10% takeover of the EV market by 2030. As it stands, Rivian’s total theoretical capacity at its two factories (600K) could garner 10% of the 2021 electric vehicle market. However, By 2030, electric vehicles sales are predicted to account for 1-in-2 vehicles sold, from a current 1-in-10. To account for 10% of all EVs sold in 2030, Rivian will have to boost production capacity to approximately 3 million vehicles per year. For interest, Rivian generated its 2021 revenue of US $55 million on delivery of 2500 electric vehicles. The company’s guidance for 2022 expects to deliver 25K vehicles, which is a huge increase on its current production numbers, but fantastically far from the number of pre-orders on its books (83K) and unimaginably far from its 10% goal of 3 million.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by BlackBull_Markets
4
TESLA looking bearish on the dailyLooking at Tesla on the daily chart I have broken down how I am playing this one for the long and short-term. So clearly TSLA is looking pretty bearish along with most of the major stocks these days. Today we see price breaking down and setting up to potentially test that very strong support level and low of $700 from a couple of weeks ago. Since Tesla hit all time highs on November 4th the stock has had a few failed breakout attempts. On one occasion it looked pretty promising to break all time highs only to hit 1200 resistance. $1000 is a very important psychological price level and on this chart we can see lots of areas of support and then breaking through that level so now 1000 is resistance. Price also hit some resistance at the 950 level as well. The plan for the bulls would be for of course 700 to hold and for price to start making higher highs and higher lows. A break back above any whole number is a start, 800 then 900 and then that 950 wall. Once TSLA is breaking back above 1k I would feel pretty confident for the bulls but until then I see this looking more on the bear side.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Dancharles
NIO - Not too optimistic on this one!-NIO declined for a few valid reasons. Namely, the fundamentals behind the stock aren’t as pretty as you might think and its valuation is too extreme. -Now the logical question to ask is whether its current, lower price makes NIO stock a buy. -Technical analysis may show that the stock is now oversold. This does not mean that in mid $20s the stock is a bargain. Do not confuse value with price. -In the third quarter of 2021, NIO reported an increase in vehicle sales of 102.4% from Q3 2020 and 9.2% from Q2 2021. Total revenues of $1.52 billion showed an increase of 116.6% from the third quarter of 2020 and an increase of 16.1% from the second quarter of 2021. The gross margin was 20.3%, compared with 12.9% in Q3 2020 and 18.6% in Q2 2021. All of this is positive news. -So what are the red flags from the Q3 2021 earnings report that most investors are overlooking? First, the vehicle margin was 18%. In Q3 2020 it was 14.5% and in Q2 2021 this figure was 20.3%. According to NIO, “ ehicle margin is the margin of new vehicle sales, which is calculated based on revenues and cost of sales derived from new vehicle sales only.” -Margin declined on a quarterly basis and should be monitored closely over the next quarters as NIO has plans to increase its manufacturing capacity, start delivering the luxury ET7 model next month and its midsize ET5 sedan in September. -Profitability continues to be a riddle hard to solve for NIO. In fact, the firm reported a net loss of $443.7 million in Q3 2021. That’s a 140.7% jump from Q3 2020 and a 333.6% leap from the results reported in Q2 2021. -Its operations losses added up to $153.9 million in Q3 2021 — a 4.9% increase from Q3 2020 and 29.9% increase from Q2 2021. -Meanwhile, the cost of sales in the third quarter of 2021 increased 98.3% from Q3 2020 and 13.6% from Q2 2021. These details gain further meaning if you consider this comment by NIO itself: “The increase in cost of sales over the third quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021 was in line with revenue growth, which was mainly driven by the increase of vehicle delivery volume in the third quarter of 2021.” OUR TARGET PRICE: $19-$20
NYSE:NIOShort
by caldooninvestment
18
TESLA made its long-term bottom. $1400 Q3 target.TSLA touched last Friday both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). During the previous phase of the first 6 months of 2021, the price made a bottom when it hit this 1D MA200 - 1W M50 zone. In fact, as this chart shows, Tesla's price action since November is very similar to the first 6 months of 2021. The 1D RSI and MACD are identical, both phases made fake-outs above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to get rejected to a Lower Low. In the previous phase, the price entered into a long-term buy when the 1D MA50 broke for the second time. As long as the 1D MA200/ 1W MA50 Support Zone holds, the 1D MA50 break-out shouldn't take long to happen. With every Higher High being a 0.5 Fibonacci extension level higher since September 2020, the next target to fill is the 3.5 Fib extension. We are setting a Q3 target on Tesla at $1400. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
2
Nio Stabilizes After a Year of LossesNio had a massive run during the worst of the pandemic, followed by a year of pullbacks. Now the electric-car maker could be stabilizing at a key level. First consider the price area near $28. NIO consolidated around that level in October 2020 before proceeding to more than double. Now that zone is providing support. Second, consider the high-volume surge on December 30 as yearend buyers stepped in. Notice the slightly higher lows on either side of that candle, which produced an inverse head and shoulders. Next, the December low was near a 61.8 percent retracement of the original rally in 2020. Finally, the new year has seen a rotation toward global stocks and weak-dollar plays as the market accepts the hawkish Fed. That shift could also help NIO. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:NIO
by TradeStation
5
RIDE this RIDE?I know very little about this company. What I do like is the price action and pattern I am seeing. I have seen this giant broadening pattern many times over the last few years and they are extremely powerful. However, they are not easy to trade. The descending nature of the lower trendline make it difficult to catch a bottom. What I prefer to do is use patience and nibble at the extreme drops and think BIG PICTURE. Personally, I am nibbling on this one now and will treat it as a speculative but longer term swing trade perhaps with CALL OPTIONS out for 2023.
RLong
by gghsusa
2
Relevant levels on NIO + Explanation.Today, we will look at the relevant levels of NIO and what we can expect from them. The first thing is defining the current context: a) The price is making a corrective formation (defined by the support zone and the descending trendline) b) The current drawdown is 59% c) The current duration of the drawdown is 365 days. From where we are right now. Which are the next relevant levels for bullish and bearish scenarios? Bearish Scenario: Currently, the price is below the support zone. IF we don't observe bullish movements above 32 / 33 in the short term, the price may drop towards the next support/resistance zone at 14.00, which means an 80% drawdown. Bullish Scenario: Assuming the price is able to move above 32 / 33, we may observe a reaction on the descending trendline. That would be a short-term bullish target. However, observing a breakout of the descending trendline could be a positive sign for position traders. It's important to say that when we have the breakout of structures of this size, it is normal to observe some corrections/throwbacks before new massive movements start. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
NYSE:NIO
by ThinkingAntsOk
FISKER at an important support, ready for another rally?$FSR as it can be seen on the chart is at a support line which if it holds it will increase the chance to start a new rally. The other supporting conditions are oversold MoneyFlow or any momentum oscillator, a divergence between the price and the momentum oscillators for the last few days. If the support line does not hold, we should drop to the $12-$13 area, which has been a very strong support area even when there was heavy selling pressure on small caps particularly SPACs, and unbearably on most of the EV start-ups. So this area would present a very good entry point considering the risk and reward. Today, $FSR has a 4.65B market cap, which if we compare it to $LCID at 60.78B it is way cheaper. The only big difference is that Lucid has started to put cars on the street while $FSR is set to do so in November 2022. The first Fisker car is a crossover SUV called Ocean, which has a superior design and very competitive pricing revealed by the company in the LA car show back in November. I am expecting a huge run when it happens and most likely when we get closer to the production. Fundamentally, the company is doing well. Since it is still in its early stages it is considered risky, but given the lowered risk of production execution and having a top-tier design by the CEO himself this company had a lot of potentials for growth. EV stocks are expected to do very well in the coming few years as electrification is increasing exponentially. I am considering $FSR a good potential multi-bagger for the next few years, nevertheless, a lot depends on the execution of course. This is not financial advice, DYODD!
FLong
by IboProtrader
MULN undervalued EV play on Support levelMULN, Mullen and ARRK, a Leading German Automotive Engineering Company, yesterday Announced a Partnership for Upcoming Mullen FIVE EV Crossover! ARRK is a leading automotive engineering company, working with some of the most well-respected automotive manufacturers, such as BMW, VW brands and Mercedes-Benz. ARRK will be supporting Mullen Automotive in Computer Aided Engineering (CAE), body in white, battery, closures, interior, chassis, thermal, and infotainment engineering. 52 Week Range 5.45 - 19.15 Market Cap 129.909Mil Looks like a steal to me! My price targets short to medium term are $9.5 and $13.2.
NASDAQ:MULNLong
by TopgOptions
2
Is Tesla overvalued?NASDAQ:TSLA is the fifth largest listing on TradingView based on market cap and has been a huge center of focus within the investment community, whether it is the more seasoned investor or trader to the inexperienced speculator who throws money at Bitcoin and various growth companies. Despite all of this there are many factors that the majority of the investing community fail to acknowledge or believe it doesn't affect the company's performance. Personally despite the crazy stock prices and lack of build quality within their physical product, I have a considerable amount of faith in the earning potential of Tesla for a couple of reasons. First of all, one should notice that at the time of writing Tesla's PE ratio is sitting at a whopping 370.66 (comparable to the firms during the dotcom bubble) and they have a considerable amount of debt but nothing that threatens their operation or is completely disproportional to any other company. It certainly would not be appropriate to compare them to other solely electric automotive manufacturers as their financial statements often seem less welcoming than Normandy beach on D-day. On the contrary to all the fore mentioned facts, Tesla's earning power has increased considerably between 2019 to 2020 and is looking towards the upside for 2021. In the past 4 years, any deficits have turned to income and their overall assets has increased consistently. Quite frankly, considering the speculative factors, such as the management of the company and their overall market monopoly, Tesla appears to be a rather profitable long term investment. Electric cars seem to be inevitable considering the carbon emissions issues and the fact that any other alternatives such as bio-fuel and hydrogen cars don't seem to be covering as much ground as quickly, and their market monopoly will keep the firm in good stead for the future potentially forming the "next Ford Motor Company" according to a reporter from Bloomberg. Once again, all opinions and comments are greatly appreciated, I thoroughly enjoy listening to others' opinions and perceptions of the market. TL;DR: Tesla is beginning to look like a promising investment for the long term as their financials steady and seem to head for an upward curve.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Michael_Axio
$NIO Bull Flagging$NIO - Chinese Electric Vehicle Maker From a technical perspective, this stock looks nicely set-up for another leg higher. If we zoom out from the chart above to the Monthly and Weekly time-frames, we see this same bull flag consolidating above major support at roughly $30. It is always a great sign to see confluence of trading signals when zooming out to the higher time-frames. Ideally, that is what you want in a trade (i.e. as many indicators and time-frames saying the same thing). For me personally, I like to see confluence from the monthly all the way down to the hourly and 30-minute charts. Those have historically been the best set-ups for my system. Looking at the Daily chart, I can see some resistance at roughly $45, $47, $50, and then $55. If the stock got above $55, then $60 is like a magnet for price and would come relatively quickly I believe. Then above $60 we would test the all-time highs of $65, and if we get above I see a price target of ~$100, which is a measured move based on the $35 range of the wedge pattern that has formed. Considering we are near the upper end of the range of the pattern, now would not be the best time to buy, considering we could drop back to support near $35 or go as low as $30-$31. These price levels would be good spots for low risks trades back up towards the downtrend line near $40. These levels could also be utilized for a low risk longer term trade/investment, as the risk is very clearly defined. I see numerous other trades that could materialize, one being the breakout over $45. This should then trigger long side buying momentum, and one could target $47, $50, $55, $60, and eventually even $65 if we get there. I would sell majority of my position within that range, and leave a small runner for that $100 price target. It's always best to lock in gains, leaving a small runner so we can still participate in any further upside of the trade, while also freeing up capital to put to work on other trades/pay ourselves for the hard work of trading. A wise trader once told me; "Never try to guess a top or bottom for exiting a trade; leave a small runner, and let the market take you out. This is how great trades can turn into spectacular ones." From a fundamental perspective, the EV space is certainly a hot sector right now, and this stock has gotten attention before from both institutional players and the retail crowd. As the US government continues to push and incentivize the transition to EV's, and with the Biden admin being weaker on China vs the Trump admin, I think $NIO has a solid economic and political landscape behind it to propel the stock higher. Full Disclosure: I am not an advisor/financial planner, these are strictly my ideas and are not meant in any way to be financial advice. Trading and investing carry substantial risk of loss and should only be done by those whom have the financial capacity to handle losses. I have no financial interest or connection in this company, and I am not a licensed financial analyst. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NYSE:NIOLong
by CJO-TRADER
2