TESLA ($TSLA) – PRICE CUTS, NEW MODELS & SHRINKING MARGINSTESLA ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) – PRICE CUTS, NEW MODELS & SHRINKING MARGINS
(1/8)
Tesla’s Q4 2024 revenue came in at $25.17B (+1% YoY), missing estimates of $25.87B. Full-year revenue hit $97.69B, only slightly above 2023. Let’s break down the numbers! 🚗⚡️
(2/8) – EARNINGS SNAPSHOT
• Q4 non-GAAP EPS: $0.71 (vs. $0.74 est.)
• Net income slipped from $2.51B (Q1 ‘23) to $1.13B (Q1 ‘24) → margin pressures
• Full-year EPS: $2.04. Investors are edgy over slowing profit growth 😬
(3/8) – NEW AFFORDABLE EV
• Tesla plans to launch a lower-priced EV mid-2025—could spark future growth 🚀
• However, concerns linger about declining margins due to recent price cuts & softening EV demand 🔻
(4/8) – SECTOR SNAPSHOT
• P/E trailing: 177.26, forward P/E: 124.35 → major premium vs. Toyota (~8.5) & GM (~8.7) 🔎
• EV/EBITDA: 87.53—again, quite high
• Analyst avg. PT: $307.62 vs. current ~$355 → Some see overvaluation 📈
(5/8) – PERFORMANCE & COMPETITION
• Tesla’s revenue growth lags behind EV rivals like BYD (especially in China) 🇨🇳
• High valuation is tough to justify if margins keep slipping & demand cools
• Others note the potential for a “market correction” if Tesla doesn’t re-accelerate growth 🔻
(6/8) – RISK FACTORS
• EV Demand Slowdown: Price cuts & fierce competition in China
• Production Delays: Cybertruck & new affordable EV might take time to ramp
• Regulatory: Shifts in incentives or rules could slow sales 📉
• Economic Pressure: High interest rates = less consumer cash for big-ticket items
• Elon Musk: Diverted focus (X, SpaceX) + polarizing behavior 🌀
(7/8) – SWOT HIGHLIGHTS
Strengths:
Leading EV brand & loyal customer base 🔥
Diversified streams (storage, solar) → less auto reliance
Massive market cap at $1.16T shows confidence
Weaknesses:
Shrinking margins (~17.86% in 2024)
Production hiccups → scaling issues
Sky-high valuations vulnerable to correction
Opportunities:
2025 mass-market EV could open huge demand 🚗💨
AI & autonomy (FSD, robotaxis) for new revenue
Energy storage growth offsetting auto slowdowns 🔋
Threats:
Competition from BYD, GM, etc.
Lawsuits & regulatory scrutiny (discrimination, product defects)
Global economic uncertainty → lower vehicle sales
(8/8) – With Tesla trading around $355 & a P/E near 177, is it still worth the premium?
1️⃣ Bullish—Musk’s vision & new EV model = unstoppable 🚀
2️⃣ Neutral—Waiting to see if margins recover 🤔
3️⃣ Bearish—Overvalued, competition is heating up 🐻
Vote below! 🗳️👇
Electricvehicles
TSLA around a confluence zone : Technical Analysis and ForecastTSLA Technical Analysis and Forecast
Tesla (TSLA) is currently positioned at a critical confluence zone, where both horizontal and ascending trendlines intersect. Should the selling pressure persist and the stock breaks below the $325 level, there is a potential for further downside movement toward a psychological support zone at $300.
It is important to note that TSLA has experienced a significant decline of approximately 33% from its peak on December 18, 2024, which could indicate potential for a rebound at these levels.
Given the stock's current discount, I believe it may present a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. I intend to continue building my position through a disciplined Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy, gradually accumulating shares as the price moves lower.
Should TSLA reach the $300 mark, I consider it a strong buying opportunity.
As always, please trade with caution and consider your risk tolerance before making any decisions.
TESLA Is this the right time to buy again?Right at the start of the year (January 02, see chart below) we issued a Sell Target on Tesla (TSLA) at $330:
This was based on the 1-year Parabolic Growth Channel of the stock, which formed a Higher High and was already in the rejection phase. The 330 Target was hit yesterday, the price touched the bottom of the Channel and we already see a recovery attempt today.
The condition that completes the strong buy sentiment that is emerging on Tesla, is that it hit yesterday the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since October 23 2024. As you can see, the last two times that the stock traded on its 1D MA100, it was the most optimal buy opportunity.
Following a -33% decline on the previous two corrections of the Parabolic Channel, we've always seen an immediate rebound of at least +43.38%. As a result, we expect Tesla to initiate the new Bullish Leg, which, before a Higher High, can target on the short-term $465 (+43.38%).
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Can Tesla's AI Drive the Future?Tesla, Inc. has positioned itself at the forefront of not just electric vehicles but also artificial intelligence (AI) with ambitious plans for autonomous driving and robotaxis. The company's vision extends beyond mere transportation; it aspires to revolutionize how we move, live, and utilize energy. Analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley has forecasted a potentially staggering growth, suggesting Tesla could expand to a 7.5 million vehicle robotaxi fleet by 2040, potentially catapulting its stock value to unprecedented heights.
The public's reception to Tesla's AI-driven future is mixed but intriguing. A significant portion, 55% of Americans, would ride in a Tesla robotaxi, with younger generations showing even greater enthusiasm. This indicates a cultural shift towards accepting and perhaps preferring autonomous solutions over traditional human-driven services. However, the journey is fraught with challenges, including technological validation, regulatory compliance, and the need to address safety concerns to win over skeptics. The potential for Tesla to disrupt urban mobility, reduce congestion, and lower emissions is immense, but it hinges on overcoming these hurdles.
Tesla's stock has already responded to these technological promises, with a notable surge linked to robust EV sales and optimistic analyst projections. The company's integration of AI into autonomous vehicles and energy solutions points towards a future where smart cities could become the norm. This narrative of Tesla challenges us to envision a world where technology not only drives cars but also drives change in our economic, environmental, and social frameworks. As we stand on the brink of this AI revolution, one must ponder: Are we ready for the autonomous future Tesla envisions?
PSNY - I like the stockGood Morning Traders,
Today I am sharing NASDAQ:PSNY an EV play from VW I like and am back in prior to sharing.
📈 Price Action and Confluence on PSNY
Based on recent price action and confluence signals, my system is indicating a re-entry on Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY). I like the stock, and I think it can give good short term and long term gains.
🚗 About Polestar
Polestar, the Swedish premium electric performance car brand, has been making waves in the EV industry. With their recent expansion into the North American market and access to Tesla's Supercharger network, Polestar is positioning itself as a strong contender in the electric vehicle space. Their commitment to innovation and sustainability is truly commendable.
🌍 Industry Trends
The electric vehicle industry is booming, with increasing demand for sustainable transportation solutions. Polestar's strategic partnerships and continuous advancements in EV technology make it an exciting stock to watch1.
Share thoughts in the comments! ❤️
TESLA How further can it drop??Tesla (TSLA) has clearly overachieved since our previous buy signal (August 15 2024, see chart below), surpassing our $380 Target:
The last 3 weeks though has seen overdue weakness on the price action, which was delayed due to the U.S. elections aftermath. The deliveries miss is pulling the price back towards its fair value region and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the October 23 2024 bullish break-out.
Tesla has been trading inside a Parabolic Channel for almost a year (since February 2024) and the level that has marked the strongest buy opportunities recently has been the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Every contact on that level since the August 05 2024 Low, has been a solid buy entry.
Parallel to the 1D MA100 contacts, the 1D RSI tends to test its own Support Zone, whose bottoms are aligned and is an additional buy signal.
With regards to corrections within this Parabolic Channel, the two major ones have both been -32.65%, an amazing display of symmetry. If the current pull-back also follows that pattern and evolves into another -32.65% Bearish Leg, then it might make contact with the 1D MA100 around the $330 level. Unless the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone earlier, that is technically a fair value for Tesla in our opinion, where heavy buying may commence again.
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China EV Market Weekly Update (W52) In the final week of December, NIO delivered 6,500 units, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous week and 14% YoY growth. For December, NIO's total registrations reached 20,000 units, with the ES6 (EL6 in Europe) and ET5 models dominating sales. Additionally, Onvo, NIO's sub-brand, registered 4,200 units of its L60 SUV (+101% WoW), contributing to a December total of 9,405 units.
Key insights:
Tesla posted 18,600 registrations (+6% WoW). Model Y remains the top seller, but Model 3 is gaining traction.
BYD led the market with 72,100 registrations, though this was down 18% WoW and 6% YoY.
Xpeng and Zeekr hit record numbers, with 10,100 and 8,900 registrations, respectively.
📈 Despite mixed signals across the EV sector, NIO’s growth is a promising indicator of its resilience in a competitive market. The rise in Onvo’s L60 SUV registrations further highlights potential in NIO's multi-brand strategy.
I'm back in the game. I sold my entire position at 7.47 on September 30, and people thought I was crazy. Anyway, I recently bought back around 4.55. This stock is playing yo-yo with our nerves, haha.
Next target? Early March 2025 (Fibonacci time extension) for a gain between +25% and +45%. Good luck to everyone!
sorry for all the drawings, this is my personal chart.
Will China's Game Redefine The Global Copper Paradigm?In the dynamic landscape of global commodities, copper emerges as a fascinating case study of economic interconnectedness and strategic policymaking. Recent developments have seen prices climb to $8,971.50 per metric ton, driven by China's bold $411 billion treasury bond initiative – a move that could reshape the metal's trajectory in international markets. This price movement, however, tells only part of a more complex story that challenges conventional market wisdom.
The interplay between supply fundamentals and geopolitical forces creates an intriguing narrative. While physical demand remains robust and Chinese inventories run low, the market grapples with a 19% decline from its May peak, highlighting the delicate balance between immediate market dynamics and broader economic forces. This tension is further amplified by the looming influence of potential U.S. trade policies under President-elect Trump's administration, adding another layer of complexity to an already multifaceted market equation.
Perhaps most compelling is the transformation of copper's role in the global economy. As traditional demand drivers like property construction show weakness, the metal's crucial position in the green energy transition offers a new frontier of opportunity. With electric vehicle sales continuing to break records and renewable energy infrastructure expanding, copper stands at the crossroads of old and new economic paradigms. This evolution, coupled with China's strategic stimulus measures and the market's response to supply-side developments, suggests that copper's story in 2025 and beyond will be one of adaptation, resilience, and strategic importance in the global economic landscape.
TSLA - Technicals, Fundamentals, and Who he knowsGood Morning Traders,
🚗Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA has been on a remarkable upward trajectory, and the outlook remains bullish with continued closures over $376 look for $420 to be tested and $475 next upside.
Let's break down why Tesla can continue to be bullish for reasons outside of Price Action. 📈
Revenue Growth: Tesla continues to report impressive revenue growth 📈, driven by strong sales of electric vehicles and energy products 🚗⚡.
Profitability: The company has turned profitable 💰, with a positive net income and strong cash flow 💵.
Innovation: Tesla remains at the forefront of innovation 🔧🚀 in the EV and energy sectors, with continuous advancements in technology and production efficiency 💡.
Additionally
Carbon Credits and EV Policies
Carbon Credits: Tesla has been capitalizing on selling carbon credits to other automakers who need them to meet regulatory requirements. This has been a significant revenue stream for Tesla.
EV Credits: There are discussions about removing federal EV credits, which could impact the market. Tesla's strategic position and established market presence might make it harder for new entrants to compete without these incentives.
Political Connections
Elon's relationship with President Donald Trump has been beneficial. With Trump's support for electric vehicles and renewable energy, Tesla stands to gain from favorable policies and potential subsidies and knock on effects from yet to be known changes.
🌍Industry Trends
The electric vehicle industry is booming, with increasing demand for sustainable transportation solutions. Polestar's strategic partnerships and continuous advancements in EV technology make it an exciting stock to watch1.
Share thoughts in the comments! ❤️
TESLA Every pull-back is a buy opportunity. Is $1000 possible?It was almost 6 months ago (June 26, see chart below) when we made a seemingly unrealistic bullish call on Tesla (TSLA) for the time being, setting $400 as our first Target:
In fact, it was 8 months ago (April 15, see chart below) when we called Tesla's exact bottom, expecting its own 'Meta recovery moment' following lay offs of more than 10% of staff:
Obviously, you can say that you couldn't see that coming. Tesla not only broke above $400 but is about to hit the next psychological level of $500. In order to make better sense of this logarithmic rise and display it in a more effective way to you, we have borrowed some of our Bitcoin analysis tools: the Pi Cycle and the Mayer Multiple Bands.
What you see on this chart, are the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which have been key Resistance and Support levels respectively during the majority of Tesla's historic run, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which have historically been the extreme Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Tesla's major Support.
All the above are applied on Tesla's key historic pattern: a Channel Up, defined by its middle Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and its extremes, the -0.382 Fib (caught the June 2019 market bottom) and the 1.382 Fib (caught the February 2014, February 2021 and November 2021 market tops).
At the moment the price just broke above Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) and hit the 0.618 Fib. While this is a strong short-term Resistance cluster and may force some investors to take profits, every such pull-back should technically be a buy opportunity from now on, as the market as already started its Parabolic Rally phase.
As you can see both previous Parabolic Rally phases hit the 1.382 Fib extension extreme, trading on the way up considerably above the 1W MA50 and with the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) as its loose Support.
Even though another test of that extreme would take the stock to incredibly high capitalization levels and cannot be justified without an applicable expansion of their product lines (from electric vehicles to A.I. and robotics), a $700 - $1000 target range by the end of 2025, doesn't seem so unrealistic if those products hit the market with real world applications.
In any case, every break above the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) has historically started Tesla's largest rallies (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash, which was quickly recovered), so plan your strategy accordingly.
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BYD Co. (BYDDY) AnalysisCompany Overview: BYD Co. (Build Your Dreams), a leader in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, has firmly established itself as a global powerhouse in the EV market. Known for its vertically integrated model and diverse vehicle lineup, BYD continues to expand its dominance across key regions, solidifying its position as a top competitor in the EV and clean energy sectors.
Key Developments:
Market Leadership: OTC:BYDDY has surpassed Tesla as the world's largest EV seller, delivering 822,094 vehicles in Q3 2023 compared to Tesla's 435,059 deliveries. This achievement highlights BYD's growing global market share and its ability to meet surging demand, even in a highly competitive industry.
Diverse Product Lineup: BYD’s expansive vehicle range—from affordable compact cars to luxury models—appeals to a broad consumer base, reducing its dependence on a single market segment. This diversification strengthens its resilience and positions the company to capture additional market share across income brackets.
International Expansion: BYD is aggressively entering new markets, including Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, tapping into regions with rising EV adoption rates. This international growth strategy provides BYD with new revenue streams, insulating it from potential regional economic fluctuations.
Rising EV Demand: With global EV adoption continuing to accelerate, BYD benefits from a tailwind of policy support for renewable energy and consumer demand for eco-friendly transportation options.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on BYDDY above the $62.00-$63.00 range, driven by its market leadership, product diversification, and robust international growth strategy.
Upside Potential: Our price target is set at $123.00-$125.00, reflecting the company’s potential to capitalize on its global expansion and strengthen its position as the top EV maker worldwide.
🚗 BYD—Driving the Future of EVs Globally! #ElectricVehicles #BYD #CleanEnergyRevolution
tesla still has a shot at ATHthis bull market has carried tsla to prices not seen since september 2022. with the size of the bounce and the consolidation in the s&p500 volatility is expected to rise in this name. the trend continuation could happen at any of these market structure levels, an i would remain long the stock on any breakout or bounce from these levels. ive used horizonfal lines to mark out support, resistance and pivot levels that could sway price. is aim as high as ATH or as low as pwVAH.
NIO Trendline Break PossibleGood evening traders,
After NIO's rapid growth Pre-Covid, the company has failed to make a comeback. In my opinion this was due to its rapid growth and impulse move back in 2020. My rule with impulse moves is the market will tend to retrace 100% of its initial move.
Following the fall of NIO for the past several years, it has clearly been bouncing from a descending trendline and so far it has touched 4 times. I expect NIO to continue to drop, the $3.00'ish price seems to be a good price to enter with a possibility of it reach the $1.00 area. I'm expecting a breakout soon followed by a retracement back to the trendline and bounce up until is reaches the $27 dollar area. This is just the technical aspect of this analysis. Hope this helps some of you with your investments.
Don't forget to like and follow for more trading ideas & trading opportunities. Happy Trading!
TSLA: My Trade of the YearTSLA was my trade of the year… filled with frustrations, irritations, and annoyances.
We hit 260-270 three times without pushing higher, and three times I didn’t sell. There was an upward gap to be filled around 289—mission accomplished.
Then, on the 3D chart, there was this huge resistance, the red box, which was finally broken through.
I just sold the remainder of my TSLA shares, accumulated heavily since this spring. Massive accumulation.
These last shares had a PNL of +98%. Simply mind-blowing.
Believing in Polestar: Resilience and Opportunities in the USA Don't forget, Trump is unlikely to target Polestar's business as it works to establish Spaces across the USA. This expansion translates to jobs, taxes, spare parts, maintenance, and more. The South Carolina factory is also expected to reach its full production capacity sooner or later. Stay confident in this project. I understand how tough it can be, especially when you see stocks like NVDA, AMZN, or even TSLA climbing higher with each passing day.
Our hope lies in the fact that if NVDA can gain SGX:40B -$50B in market cap in a single day, or TSLA and AMZN can do the same, then a modest increase for PSNY of $500M, SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B , or SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B is just pocket change for Wall Street algorithms.
In conclusion? Stay strong PSNY fam'!
TESLA just made a crucial break-out that few are noticing.Tesla (TSLA) soared last week following the better than expected earnings, an event we covered extensively, and have practically erased all the negativity/ cautiousness that came following the Robotaxi event.
However, the closing of last week found Tesla making a crucial bullish break-out that might have gone under most people's radar. The price not only broke the Lower Highs trend-line that started all the way from the November 2021 All Time High (ATH) but almost managed to close the 1W candle above it.
Technically this is a major buy signal long-term that targets the final two Resistance Zones (1 and 2) of the Bear Cycle. With the 1W RSI effectively consolidating like February - May 2023, we believe that as last year, the price will now start the 2nd phase of the April 22 2024 Bullish Leg of a potential 2-year Channel Up.
We expect Resistance Zone 1 to break and if upon a re-test it holds, our long-term Target of $380.00 should finally be materialized.
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TESLA Have today's upbeat earnings erased the Robotaxi disaster?Tesla (TSLA) reported yesterday third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and said it expects to achieve "slight" growth in deliveries this year. This was enough to send the price in an after-market frenzy and so far in-session rising almost by +20%.
In fact, Tesla's market cap has increased by $126B today, the largest single day jump ever! Those earnings may prove to be pivotal for the automaker as they come just a few days after the Robotaxi event, which the market considered disappointing.
So can those earnings result be enough to reverse Tesla's fortunes, which has been massively underperforming relative to (particularly) the rest of the Magnificent 7? Well this can be answered through a technical perspective, with a chart that we published more than 2 months ago (August 15, see chart below):
That was Tesla's Channel Up since the January 06 2023 market bottom on the 1W time-frame, where we caught a buy just after the August 2024 Low. We projected that to be halfway through the new long-term Bullish Leg of the Channel. The recent October correction can be viewed as the April 24 2023 2nd wave of the mid-term pull-back of the Bullish Leg.
On the current analysis we view the same pattern but on the 1D time-frame, where the 1D MACD in particular excels at illustrating the identical nature of the two Bullish Legs price actions.
Right now the MACD is forming the 2nd clean Bullish Cross under the Lower Highs belt, a formation which on May 04 2023 turned out to be the confirmation that started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg that completed a +195% rise from the January 2023 bottom.
As a result, not only do we expect the stock to reach Resistance 1 (299.50), which is the July 19 2023 High before the year ends but also test Resistance 2 (385.00), which is the April 05 2022 High by January 2025.
Our Target long-term remains a straight up $380.00 as we pointed out those months back.
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