Wyckoff Accumulation HYLN updated 8/19EV sector continues to show behind the scenes buying from HFs/tutes (look at unusualwhales.com and sort by date of 13F filing). in a previous post, i shared this idea and thought that the accumulation was happening without this downward move into a spring happening. clearly i was incorrect, as we saw very strange -4% days all in a row--which appears very "manipulated" when you also account for increased volume. (i hate using that term "manipulated" but what i mean is that the price was suppressed to allow for more accumulation by those who have the capital to do so).
Electricvehicles
Li Auto: Challenges, Opportunities and Stock ValuationThe company is expected to report its Q2 2021 financial results on August 30.
Li Auto will use the money from the secondary public offering to develop a battery EV.
Li ONE is a good-selling model – but the company is yet to prove its ability to roll out a mature BEV.
There are concerns about Li's technology and goal-setting, but there is room for improvement.
Li Auto is fairly priced. Investors who have faith in EREV are encouraged to buy into the stock now.
On August 12, 2021, Li Auto (LI:NASDAQ) started trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It has become the second Chinese EV company to be listed on both hemispheres. Having collected CNY 11.6 billion while operating on dry powder, how will the company expand afterward? This article will do a business review of Li Auto and value its stock.
The impediments arising from COVID-19 have not stopped China's EV market from sprinting in 2021. Among a wealth of EV companies, Li Auto delivered 38,743 units of Li ONE in the first half of that year, surpassing the previous year's figure. But the company's fundamentals are still somewhat overshadowed by those of its counterparts in the space.
Technical bottlenecks, unrealistic goals
According to our previous research, Li Auto has spent a lower percentage of revenue on research and development compared with NIO and Xpeng. More importantly, the Li ONE model uses the range extender as a core technology, one that has been used globally for some years now.
Specifically, this technology was first commercially used on the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF in late 2010. The extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) is fully powered by electric motors but has an internal combustion engine (ICE) to generate additional electric power. The battery pack will supply power to motors when it is fully charged. When the battery's power decreases to a specified level, the ICE-powered generator switches on to supply power to the electric motor and/or recharges the battery. The technology allows ICE to charge batteries but consumes noticeably less fuel than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Thus, vehicle owners can either charge cars with gasoline or electricity. In short, the range extender is a transitional solution and will likely be outdated in a few years as the battery cost quickly decreases and EV infrastructure upgrades. Presumably, BEV will account for a higher percentage of EV as EV penetrates the broader market.
BEV development needs to meet professionalism/technology thresholds in battery, electric control and electric motor. Although most OEMs buy solutions from tier-one or tier-two manufacturers, a lot of work is needed for benchmarking and integrating these components into a mature product. Li Auto doesn't have enough expertise in this field. Based on Li's most recent prospectus, the company plans to roll out two new BEVs in 2023. We have doubts about whether the company will be able to finalize a mature product at that time.
Besides, Li Auto's management set an exaggerated expectation of the company's EV sales that has alerted its investors. In February 2021, the company announced its outlook internally. The founder set a goal for the company to reach 1.6 million in annual EV sales by 2025. Such a target will be hard to achieve. 1.6 million vehicles equal Toyota's 2019 sales in China. Toyota, the Japanese auto giant, has been selling cars in the Chinese market for 20 years and has accumulated a much larger customer base and global reputation than Li Auto. An ambition to become a brand as famous as Toyota in five years appears challenging, to say the least. Having 1.6 million deliveries by 2025, inter alia, means that the annual delivery figures are projected to grow at a 170% CAGR, a rather high rate.
Opportunities and attempts to catch up
Notwithstanding, Li Auto still has an opportunity to join the group of tech leaders. Within the fast-growing EV industry, there are many suppliers providing solutions like ADAS, Lidar and third-party charging infrastructure – and, incentivized by China's state policies, new upstarts appear daily in these areas. The technological 'backwardness' of Li Auto might be resolved through a couple of acquisitions. The company, meanwhile, is taking some actions to drive innovation internally; for example, it started building an R&D center in Shanghai in April 2021.
Li ONE, a best-selling model, also brought the public's attention to Li Auto. Li Auto's management expects over 10,000 sales in September 2021. We think the reason Li Auto has such strong momentum is due to its product positioning. One of the examples will be a family-oriented SUV with 6 to 7 seats. Compared to the competing models with the same price, this SUV is equipped with an entertainment system that includes three screens and appears to be a more economical option. The consistency in product positioning has made Li Auto a popular brand.
Valuation
To evaluate Li Auto's stock in a simplistic manner, we forecast Li's 2022 car sales will be around 130,000 to 140,000 units. With an assumed average revenue generated per car of CNY 284,000, according to the Q1 2021 financials, the total revenue for 2022 will be USD 5.7 billion to USD 6.1 billion. Because of Li Auto's ongoing technology transition, the multiple is halved to 5 times of 2022 revenue. Therefore, the projected market capitalization of Li Auto is USD 28.5 billion to USD 30.5 billion.
Conclusion
Li ONE is highly likely to maintain strong sales momentum in the short run. But 2023 will be a challenging year depending on whether the company can succeed in rolling out battery electric vehicles. Compared with NIO, Xpeng and BYD, the stock is at half of their EV divisions' multiples and priced at a reasonable level. Due to some technical and strategic issues, the company's outlook is mixed. Now is a good time for investors who have faith in EREV to make a decision.
nio subwave 3 swingquick update to the last few posts.
nio saw a clean retracement into the local golden zone, and i think it's about to start a sub wave 3 impulse.
sub wave 3 target = $55
previous posts leading up to this one:
BYD Enters Europe with Delivering Tang EV in NorwayThe Shenzhen-based firm has imported a total of 100 units of the Tang EV to the Scandinavian nation.
The Chinese EV-maker shipped the first 100 BYD Tang EVs from Shanghai to Norway about two months ago which was the company's first passenger car shipment to a European country. BYD plans to deliver as many as 1,500 units of the BYD Tang EV to dealers in Norway this year. The company has pre-sold 500 units in the country already. Along with its Scandinavian distributor RSA, the Chinese auto veteran has built up a network of 45 dealers.
The subsidized price of the EV in China is CNY 279,500 to 314,800, while the car will be sold for about 600,000 Norwegian kroner in Norway which is about CNY 130,000 more expensive.
In July this year, BYD's sales of new energy passenger cars soared by 262.7% year-on-year to reach 50,057 units, setting a new record for the firm's own monthly sales. It also marked a record high for China's monthly sales of new energy passenger cars.
NIKOLA: NKLA Can Be A Good Buy NowTraders, Nikola price has been it badly but it has reached a level where it can be a good buy on the completion of a good FCP pattern. Beware of the fact that this pattern can become extended to the downside. Hence we have to possible BUY zones
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NIO's Strong Q2 2021 Results: Revenue Up 127%, Net Loss HalvesThe electric vehicle maker generated CNY 8.45 billion this quarter, getting closer to break even.
On August 11, 2021, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker NIO (NIO:NYSE) released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021, with most key figures improving year on year:
The total revenue hit CNY 8.45 billion, up by 127.2% from Q2 2020 and by 5.8% quarter on quarter.
CNY 7.91 was made from car sales: NIO beat analysts' estimates, completing 21,896 vehicle deliveries in the second quarter.
Net loss reached CNY 587.2 million, shrinking by 50.1% from Q2 2020 but increasing by 30.2% from Q1 2021.
R&D cost grew by 62.1% year on year, reaching CNY 880 million; it now equals 10.4% of the firm's total revenue.
While world-leading EV maker Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) is facing demand-side issues in the Chinese market, its local competitors are jumping in to fill the void. Through supply chain optimization and effective marketing messaging, NIO is solidifying its position as the domestic champion in the EV market's premium segment.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
Wyckoff Accumulation in HYLNBiden's signing of the Electric Vehicle executive order may be a tailwind for HYLN (Hyliion), the Texas-based company producing EV motors and retrofitting hybrid systems for long-haul trucking fleets. Add to that the proposed I-14 expansion between Texas and Georgia and the electric vehicle charging stations included in the current Infrastructure Bill going through congress, I believe there is a buying opportunity here of which many hedge funds and institutional investors are already aware. This accumulation is happening already, with 13F filings on whalewisdom.com showing that since 7/26, HFs have initiated new positions to the tune of roughly 800K shares long, and those already with positions have increased their holdings by over 1.25m shares in the same time period. This can be seen on the chart as well, with this classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern playing out nicely. Add in a heavy amount of short interest, and upcoming earnings, and this stock could really make a move on positive PR.
BYD Sold 50,492 NEVs in July, Up 234% from a Year AgoBYD may supply its "blade battery" to Tesla in the second quarter of next year.
BYD's new energy vehicle sales in July were 50,492 units, up 234 percent from a year ago and 22 percent from June.
So far this year, BYD has sold 205,071 new energy vehicles, an increase of 170.62 percent over the same period last year, it said in an announcement.
BYD sold 50,057 units of new energy passenger vehicles and 435 units of commercial vehicles in July.
It sold 24,996 battery electric vehicles and 25,061 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in July.
Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's passenger vehicle brand and public relations division, said in early June that the company's new energy vehicle sales will surpass Tesla China in June and is expected to become the global new energy vehicle champion within the year.
BYD sold 41,366 new energy vehicles in June, up 192 percent from the same month last year and 26 percent from May.
By comparison, according to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla China's wholesale sales in June were 33,155 units, up about 122 percent year-over-year.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
Long Nio from a techincal analysis POVLevels on NIO are being approached with volume , and is a serious canidate to be a mover
NIO Sprints Back into Growth Mode – No Regulatory Risk Thus FarNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, up 124.48% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month.
● We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock.
● The methodology includes a car sales forecast and average selling prices.
● Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced.
● None of the currently acute regulatory risks apply to NIO.
Introduction
NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. In 2021, NIO has been solidifying a high premium profile in China, launching a new model, the ET7. NIO has also recently started shipping the ES8 to Norway, with global expansion ambitions. This article follows an approach similar to that we used in our latest Xpeng analysis, estimating the value of the stock based on its projected future sales performance.
Revenue estimation
In this section, we will project NIO's revenue by 2030 and use the 2022 figure to evaluate the stock's current investment potential. The revenue will be calculated by multiplying projected car deliveries with average selling prices.
The calculation of whole fleet (including ES6, EC6, ES8 and ET7) sales is based on a top-down methodology. It starts with a forecast of light vehicle sales in China. According to CAAM (link in Chinese), China's light-vehicle sales will hit 22.2 million in 2021. Under an assumption of slowing economic growth affecting the auto market, we estimate the growth rate will decline to 4% gradually. The market will reach 32.6 million in 2030.
Speaking of the market share, we assume NIO can reach 2.4% of the total market by 2030. It results from the fact that William Li, the founder of NIO, has aligned the company's goals with those of iconic brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. We linearized that number and estimated NIO's 2022 market share and deliveries, which will account for 0.6% and 152,066 units, respectively.
To calculate the revenue, we also need to project the average selling price (ASP). Historically, NIO's ASP has been declining as new models have been rolled out. This trend will continue, whereas we think the ASP will remain higher than CNY 300,00 per vehicle. We set a declining rate for ASP calculation, from -2% in 2021 to -0.5% in 2030. The ASP in 2022 will be CNY 328,000.
Per this projection, NIO's 2022 vehicle sales will be CNY 50 billion. Apart from car sales, NIO also generates revenue from selling charging facilities and related services, data, insurance and merchandise. These segments have correlated to vehicle sales and shown a faster growth pace. Thus, we project a slightly increasing percentage of revenue from selling them. In 2020, the number was 6%, and we allocated 7% and 9% for 2022 and 2030, respectively.
In total, NIO is expected to make CNY 53.5 billion (USD 8 billion) in revenue in 2022. Similar to our Xpeng analysis, we multiplied NIO's PS ratio in 2022 by nine (referring to the Street's average expectations). Its fair market capitalization target is thereby around USD 74 billion.
Risks
NIO has recently been indirectly involved in the regulatory crackdown-related narrative. We think investors' massive selling may insignificantly hurt the company's business. To specify all the possible risks, we summarize all the incidents concerning Chinese concept stocks within this year.
The antitrust and other new regulations are the key obstacle imposed by the central government. Some famous 'victim' cases include Tencent Music's copyrights, Alibaba's 'pick one from two' strategy and Meituan's rider employment and other issues. Obviously, the NEV market in China is still in its infancy (compared with ICE cars). NIO is certainly not a monopoly.
Data/cybersecurity concerns are also not suitable for NIO. In early July 2021, it was reported that Didi Global had illegally collected users' personal data. Clearly, the ride-hailing giant possesses huge chunks of users' travel information. However, NIO is also collecting data that seems less significant than important route data handled by legitimate third-party providers like map products of Baidu and the likes of AutoNavi.
NIO and its peers won't see anything like what happened to the country's edtech industry either: the central government, which is ''seeking to decrease workloads for students and overhaul a sector that has been 'hijacked by capital,'" is rather interested in the nationwide EV adoption.
In short, NIO, much like any local EV maker, is not exposed to these major risks.
Apart from regulatory risk, supply chain issues are worth discussing. The issues seem to remain controllable, but investors need to keep eyes on them – the component shortage will be a hot topic in the upcoming Q2 earnings calls.
Conclusion
Among Chinese concept stocks, NIO is a company with a solid product line, growing sales and great prospects. The stock has gone down and has remained volatile since the beginning of 2021. Suffering from the chip shortage, it is currently fairly priced. And is well set to gain more in the following quarters.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NIO closing on top of the 20 day SMA, could fill 20% gap UPNIO closing on top of the 20 day SMA, could fill 20% gap UP
EMAs trying to punch thru the 20 day SMA and breakout
Recently announced promising earnings and deliveries are up 125% year over year for July
Tesla is also trying to breakout upwards, and can help boost $NIO as EV hype returns
First sell at $50.50, Second at $52 or overbought RSI
ARVL - Arrival Group - Gaps can be filledARVL
ENTRY = 10.50 - 11
Cost Avg Down = 6.50 - 6.75
1st Target = 236fib 18.44
2nd Target = Bear Gap Fill 20
3rd Target = 382fib 22
Hodl Target = 618fib 28+
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
Elliott Wave Analysis: TESLA Is Still Looking For Wave CHello traders!
Today we will talk about Tesla, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective.
As you may already know, we have been looking for that wave C decline for a while, but seems like it's temporary on a pause as price action is slow and sideways, so wave B correction looks to be bigger and longer, ideally as part of a bearish triangle formation. Well, we are still expecting TESLA to drop into 500-400 support zone, but probably once a bearish triangle pattern is fully completed as subwaves "d" and "e" are still missing.
After Tesla stocks split last year from $2,213 to $444, price can retrace to similar levels, a year later as A-B-C correction seems incomplete.
Trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
BUY Tesla (TSLA) for a breakout above $700Tesla's stock has demonstrated an extremely positive share price performance throughout the last two and a half months. The stock bottomed at around the $550 mark back in May, as the strong support there managed to stop the volatile stock price decline.
The company was under severe pressure at the time following their sub-par Q1 earnings announcements, where it became clear that if it was not for the BTC sale that Tesla completed and the huge profit that it made from it, the company would have reported a Net Loss for Q1. In addition to that, many people started to realize that Tesla was receiving large government decarbonization credits and subsidies, which were the primary reason for the company's profitability. Furthermore, with the rising competition from the likes of Ford, General Motors in the electric vehicle market, investors have started to worry whether or not Tesla would be able to turn a profit in the event of a drastic decrease in the number of government decarbonization subsidies that it receives. The more companies there are that participate in the electrification of the Auto industry in the US the more candidates there will be for these government subsidies, thus Tesla will no longer be "the only show in town". However, we believe that in the short term most of the negativity has already been priced in, and the stock is about to reverse very soon.
So basically, these have been the major company related reasons as to why the stock has been trading in the $550-700 range for few months now. This is way off its all-time highs of $900 that it reached earlier in the year. We've seen a strong pickup in the bullish momentum for the stock and everything points for a breakout above the $700 resistance mark, within the next few trading sessions. Once that resistance is broken, then the stock will be easily headed towards the $800-900 range heading into September.
As you can see on the chart, all of the moving averages that we follow, as well as all of the key indicators that we use to define relative market strength and momentum are pointing higher. Thus, we would be opening a LONG TSLA position on a clear break above the $700 level and would be interested in potentially collecting a portion of our profit at around $890 for a 27% ROI.
Li Auto Inc. Delivered Record 8,589 Units in JulyLi Auto added more than 10,000 orders in June, a record high, the company previously said.
Li Auto delivered 8,589 units of the Li ONE in July, the first time deliveries exceeded 8,000 units in a single month, up 251.3 percent year-over-year and 11.4 percent from June.
Li Auto currently has only one model, the Li ONE, on sale, with total deliveries of 38,743 units in the first seven months of the year, bringing cumulative deliveries to date to 72,340 units, according to data released by the company on Sunday.
"Before the end of the year, we will also launch a heavy-weight OTA upgrade that will take Li ONE's competitiveness to a whole new level," said Li Auto co-founder and president Shen Yannan.
Li Auto's direct retail system construction is accelerating, with plans to have 200 direct retail centers covering more than 100 cities in China by the end of 2021, the company said.
As of July 31, Li Auto had 109 retail centers in China, covering 67 cities, and 176 after-sales repair centers and authorized sheet metal spraying centers, covering 134 cities.
Li Auto released the 2021 Li ONE on May 25 with a starting price of CNY 338,000 (USD 52,300), CNY 10,000 higher than the previous version. Deliveries of the new Li ONE began on June 1.
Notably, despite the popularity of the 2021 Li ONE, owners are now beginning to complain about problems with the vehicle.
Several Weibo users have recently reported that their Li ONE vehicles are making unusual noises at high speeds, suspected to be emitted by the generator.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
Xpeng Delivered Record 8,040 Vehicles in JulyThe company plans to have the P5 officially available in the third quarter of 2021, with deliveries expected in the fourth quarter of 2021.
XPeng Motors delivered 8,040 vehicles in July, its highest monthly delivery record, up 228 percent year-over-year and up 22 percent from June.
The company's flagship sedan, the P7, delivered 6,054 units in July, the highest monthly delivery record since its launch, XPeng's data released Monday showed. Cumulative deliveries of P7 reached 40,612 units since its launch in July 2020.
XPeng's compact SUV, the G3, delivered 1,986 units in July.
As of July 31, the company's total deliveries for the year reached 38,778 units, up 388 percent year-over-year.
XPeng previously said the P7 sedan with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has seen strong demand since its launch in March this year. Deliveries of the model began in May, with sales increasing 27 percent in that month compared to April.
In March, XPeng announced the launch of the P7 and G3 with LFP batteries, with deliveries of the former starting in May and the latter in April.
The new P7 is available in two variants a combined range of 480km.
The new P7 is equipped with Xmart OS in-vehicle intelligence system, with the lower-priced version equipped with XPILOT 2.5 + automatic driving assistance system, priced from CNY 229,900 (USD 35,600).
The higher-priced version is equipped with XPILOT 3.0 automatic driving assistance system, priced from CNY 239,900.
Together with the newly released model with LFP battery, the XPeng P7 is now available in four models: rear-wheel drive standard range, rear-wheel drive long-range, rear-wheel drive extra long range and four-wheel-drive high performance. Their price range covers CNY 229,900 to CNY 339,900.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NIO Delivered 7,931 Vehicles in July, Up 124% Year-over-YearNIO's local counterparts, XPeng Motors and Li Auto delivered 8040, 8589 vehicles, respectively, in July.
NIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July, up 124.48 percent year-over-year and down about 2 percent from June.
The deliveries consisted of 1,702 ES8s, 3,669 ES6s, and 2,560 EC6s. NIO has completed the delivery of 49,887 units in 2021, exceeding last year's full-year delivery.
NIO's 100kWh battery pack is deploying to every battery swap station and the delivery of the 100kWh battery pack will significantly ramp up in the coming months, the company said.
At the same time, the first batch of ES8 for user delivery has been officially shipped to Norway and is expected to open for ordering and delivery in Norway in September this year, it said.
Ahead of the July delivery data was released, a team at Hong Kong-based financial services firm CMB International raised its price target on NIO earlier today, citing marginal improvement in chip supply and the prospect of continued growth in deliveries in the second half of the year.
The team raised its price target for NIO by 13.6 percent to USD 52.60 per share, maintaining a buy rating. NIO closed up 4.83 percent to USD 44.68 on Friday and the price target implies an upside of about 18 percent.
CMB believes that in the short term, NIO expects to drive sales growth through increased density of battery swap stations. In the long term, NIO's unique business model of separating the vehicle from the battery will contribute to vehicle sales as it focuses on providing quality service to its customers.
Local tech media 36kr reported on Friday that Ai Tiecheng, former general manager of WeWork Greater China, has joined NIO to take charge of the company's mass-market-oriented sub-brand, and that a new model could be released in the first half of next year at the earliest.
NIO is the only local Chinese brand that has a firm foothold in the high-end market, with a minimum price of CNY 358,000 (USD 55,400). If customers choose its BaaS battery leasing service, the purchase threshold can be lowered by at least RMB 70,000, but they will need to pay a monthly battery rental fee.
The latest data from China Automotive Technology and Research Center shows that the average price of NIO vehicles in May was CNY 432,900, higher than BMW's CNY 391,000 and slightly lower than Mercedes' CNY 435,600.
The high-end positioning means that NIO's sales could hit the ceiling earlier than its local counterparts XPeng Motor and Li Auto, and the launch of a mass-market-oriented brand is expected to make that ceiling higher.
The so-called sub-brand, a mid-to low-end brand independent of the NIO brand, is expected to be priced in the CNY 150,000 (USD 23,200) - 250,000 market, the 36kr report said.
"Li is also factoring in the positioning of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (priced at around CNY 30,000)," the report said, citing an unnamed source.
The Mini EV is the top-selling EV in China, with sales of 29,143 units in June, up 12.56 percent from May, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
NIO's sub-brand will follow the battery swap technology, but will operate through a separate system that includes channels, communities and an app, the 36kr report said.
This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
2022 Might Be a Winning Year for Xpeng – and the Stock Is FinallOn July 7, 2021, the company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the code '9868.'
We estimate Xpeng's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock.
The methodology includes the forecast of sales of P7, G3&G3i and the upcoming P5 and SUV models.
The results indicate that the stock is currently fairly priced
Risks primarily come from supply chain and market regulation but remain controllable.
With the current global chip shortage, most major auto OEMs have suffered from a lack of electronic supplies. Amid these concerns, China's EV sales are burgeoning, with light EV sales hitting 241,000, or 15% of total light vehicles sales in June, 2021. Among the country's EV pioneers, Xpeng (XPEV:NYSE) has recently presented some positive results: its half-year delivery number has surpassed last year's figure. This article presents a forecast of the company's EV sales in 2022 and evaluates its stock by analyzing each model of Xpeng and using the valuation multiples.
Model-level breakdown
P7 is Xpeng's hit product. Simplifying the modelling, we project the sales of P7 to increase by 184, 100 and 50 units month-on-month until 2023; 184 is the average monthly increase since the model's launch, while the incremental decrease is due to the upcoming P5 and 2022 SUV models. The average selling price will be around CNY 250,000, the same as in 2020.
G3&G3i are the oldest models of Xpeng. The updated version G3i transformed into a more unified family design and attracted more sales. We estimate G3 and G3i will keep lifting sales volume by 46 per month during the same period. The average selling price will be around CNY 150,000 per unit.
P5 will shoulder the company's expectations to become a family sedan. We estimate P5's first-month delivery number in October will be at around 1,000, referring to P7's data. Then the delivery figure will increase by 143 units per month, of which 100 will be at the cost of P7 sales declining, as the two models compete with each other, and 43 is organic growth. Based on the official price starting from CNY 160,00 to 230,000, we predict the ASP will be at CNY 190,000.
Xpeng is planning to launch a new SUV model. The SUV has a family design 'X' logo that brings its length to 4,800 mm. The car design shares the same platform as the P7, the Edward platform. In addition, it will be equipped with premium specifications like XPilot 4.0 and air suspension. Some industry experts predict the price will be around CNY 300,000. We assume Xpeng will finish its launch day by September 2022. The first-month sale will be 300 units, which will increase by 145 units per month similar to the sales trajectory of NIO's ES6.
Apart from EV sales, other services will account for 5% of total revenue. The 2022 EV sales won't be significantly impacted by the chip shortage.
To sum up, Xpeng's 2022 revenue is projected to reach USD 4.3 billion (CNY 28 billion). Specifically, the company will sell 122,253 vehicles to make USD 4.1 billion topline, and USD 0.25 billion will be from other services. According to the Street's expectations, the stock is priced at 16, 8.8, 5.6, 4, 2.9 forward PS ratios by 2025. We select 9x as the 2022 multiples. Thus, the market cap will be USD 38.7 billion, around 10% up from the market cap on July 27, 2021.
Risks
Although the expectations for Xpeng are rather bright, the whole industry is facing the chip shortage problem – that is also the biggest threat to Xpeng. For NEV companies, production is challenging while orders are packed. Through our research, we found that most auto stakeholders in China expect the imbalance to last through 2021, affecting the global light-vehicle sales by 2.5-5.0%, but recover slightly in 2022.
The edtech sector's regulatory update drove the recent sell-off in Chinese concept stocks. However, this crackdown won't be a long-term issue for EV innovators like Xpeng. According to Bloomberg, the government's motivation is to cut family workloads to turn the declining birth rates up. On the other hand, the 'Made in China 2025' scheme supports EV development radically. So the policy will rather play a positive role in the new energy vehicle market in the long term.
Conclusion
Up to the present, Xpeng has been on the right track, leveraging business through unified family designs, new stores opening, capacity boost and charging facilities build-up. The company's 2022 revenue would be a realistic basis for stocks to start. The most significant potential risk at present is the capacity problem caused by supply chain shortages. Investors should keep an eye on this topic in the company's upcoming Q2 earnings conference.
For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
EV's - SOLOThere's been some buzz around EV's lately, thinking they gain some traction soon. I took a swing trade position in SOLO earlier this year and got caught on the move down, Sold it now looking to rebuild position and retry this one. Accumulating shares in here.
Tesla's Revenue Nearly Doubles in the second quarter of 2021On July 27, Tesla released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021. According to the latest financial statements, in Q2 2021, Tesla achieved a revenue of USD 11.96 billion, up 98% year-on-year and a net profit of USD 1.62 billion, surging 258% year-on-year. Its revenue increase nearly ten times that of the same period last year, which was the first time its net profit exceeded USD 1 billion. Its automotive business contributed USD 10.21 billion to all the segments, with a gross profit margin of 28.4%.
Tesla delivered 201,300 vehicles in the second quarter, including 1,895 Model S/X and 199,400 Model 3/Y. Tesla expects the deliveries amount will grow by more than 50% in 2021.
In terms of factories, the company plans to carry out limited production of Model Y in Texas and Berlin later this year. Model Y produced by Tesla's factories in Texas and Berlin may use 4680 batteries in the future. However, Tesla said that due to limited battery supply and challenges facing the global supply chain, the application might be postponed to 2022.
In addition, the Tesla Shanghai Super factory has become its main automobile export center. Although slightly affected by the supply chain and factory upgrading, the capacity of the Shanghai Super Factory is still strong. Owing to the strong demand in the U.S. market and global cost optimization, Tesla has completed the transformation of the Shanghai Super factory.
On the day of the release of the financial report, Tesla's share price rose 2.21%, and its current share price reaches USD 657.62 per share, with a total market value of USD 633.5 billion. It is worth noting that Musk said that unless there is something very important to report, this is his last time to participate in Tesla's financial report teleconference.
XPEV price targetsEven though i consider XPEV to be the real Tesla of China, because of the cheaper cars and the technology "stolen" from Tesla, i still think it will revisit the 29usd support short term.
Remember that this is not a profitable company and is still dependent on raising capital for its cars.
in 2020 XPEV revenue was 5.84B, but the Earnings were negative, -2.73B. They also missed the Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates last year.
Jim Cramer (Mad Money) on China's tech crackdown: You can't own Chinese stocks!
ARK Invest dumps Chinese stocks.
It seems dangerous to hold Chinese stocks right now.
US-listed Chinese companies have three years to comply with US accounting oversight, to comply with the rules of accounting and transparency that American public companies must follow, if not they will get delisted.
This looks like the beginning of China`s stock market crash.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about this!
NIO currently down 9%NIO have a good trend trading with 9% curve calculation, possible up 9%, 16% before next drop in price if it stay within trend.
Still looking good till more news on NIO, as China EV is picking up trend again.
Don’t Forget About CopperCopper had a dramatic run coming out of the pandemic, more than doubling between March 2020 and May 2021. Now, after a period of consolidation, it may be ready for more upside.
First consider the ascending triangle that’s formed with a top around $4.35. It’s currently attempting its highest close in six weeks, which could result in a breakout. Traders may now focus on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as the next resistance line.
Second, CUUUSD also made a lower low this week, which means you have a bullish outside candle on the weekly chart. It follows a small inside candle the previous week. Price action like that suggests that the phase of tightening is near an end and prices may be ready to expand again:
Third, notice how MACD has been steadily rising all of July.
Copper’s fundamentals are also interesting because the red metal benefits from the spread of electric vehicles. (This stands in stark contrast to the other global-growth commodity, crude oil.) There are also supply constraints, especially with politicians in Chile and Peru looking to invest less in mines.
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