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EUR/USD Summary October + Most important Economic events Thursday, October 10, 2024 14:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% 14:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.3% 2.5% 14:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.2% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 229K 225K 19:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction 4.015% In case there is no negative surprise in the US data I do believe that this is the most realistic scenario. 1. Technical Indicators (Charts Analysis) 4Hour Chart: The EUR/USD shows a recent downtrend with the 50 and 200period moving averages (MA) pointing downwards. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this timeframe is in the oversold area but not deeply, which may suggest a possible shortterm bounce, but the downtrend could continue if the RSI doesn’t move back above 50. 1Day Chart: Here, EUR/USD also shows a downward trajectory. The RSI is just under 50, indicating weak momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in a negative territory, confirming bearish pressure. The downtrend could continue, given the position of the RSI and CCI. Weekly Chart: The larger trend on the weekly chart shows some stabilization, with the 200week MA acting as a potential support level. However, RSI around 51 on this timeframe suggests neutral momentum, which could imply that any major movements are more likely influenced by economic fundamentals. 2. Economic Data Impact Recent economic data from the U.S., such as Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Services PMI, came out strong, which generally strengthens the USD. Meanwhile, the European inflation data, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), indicates slightly higherthanexpected inflation but hasn’t significantly impacted the EUR. Given the strong U.S. economic indicators and the uncertainty in Europe, the USD is showing resilience, which adds pressure on the EUR/USD pair to stay bearish or rangebound unless European data strengthens significantly. 3. Interest Rate Parity Consideration Using interest rate parity (IRP), which factors in the interest rate differential between the EUR and USD, we can anticipate some pressure on the EUR/USD. Currently: The Eurozone’s interest rate is 4%, while the U.S. interest rate is 5%. With a higher interest rate in the U.S., investors might prefer holding USD assets, which would lead to a lower EUR/USD exchange rate as the EUR depreciates relative to the USD over time. Projection: What Could Be the Next Move? 1. ShortTerm: Based on the 4hour and daily technical indicators, there could be a shortterm bounce in EUR/USD if it reaches an oversold level, but the overall trend still appears bearish. The 50 and 200 MAs act as resistance zones. 2. Medium to LongTerm: With the interest rate differential favoring the USD and current U.S. economic strength, EUR/USD may continue to face downward pressure. The weekly support around the 200 MA could potentially provide some stability, but if this level breaks, further downside could be expected. 3. Fundamental Trigger: If there is any unexpected dovish statement from the Federal Reserve or stronger than expected Eurozone economic data, it could provide some support to the EUR. Otherwise, USD strength is likely to dominate, keeping EUR/USD bearish. In summary, EUR/USD may see a shortterm bounce, but the overall bias remains bearish due to the interest rate differential, strong U.S. economic data, and technical indicators signaling weakness. Let me know if you'd like further clarification on any part of this analysis.
by ElGatoTrade
SZEPT 12-ECB as expected decreased interest rates.14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) 3.50% 3.50% 3.75% 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.90% 4.50% 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 3.65% 3.65% 4.25% At the same time we got US economic data which is in my readings leaning towards that FED will cut only by 0,25 bps. 14:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,850K 1,850K 1,845K 14:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 230K 227K 228K 14:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% www.investing.com - All data can be find here on the day of 12 of sept. Im do worried that altough we should see that EURO is continue to its down-side way its will revisite 1.106 an if so than 1.107-to 1.11020 range until FED. Its fundamentally not logical but technicals show right-now a different picture. RSI 4H indicating up-ward pressure 50 day and 200 day moving average indicating downside in the next 15 days.
by ElGatoTrade
EURO-STEP-UPEconomic calendar as of 11/07/2024 ( GMT +2:00 Budapest) (LEFT to RIGHT ) Actual(?) Forecast Previous 14:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K 1,858K 14:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.2% 14:30 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.4% 3.4% 14:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.0% 14:30 USD CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% 3.3% 14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 236K 238K The above mentioned data will determine the next move in EURUSD and CADEUR ( Correleting pair so choose one to trade. EURUSD for those whos likes to have a long position, CADEUR FOR SHORTERS.) The TWO most important data is Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) - From Februar 12, 2024 we can see that slowly the elevated interest rate enviroment transioning into the real economy thus FED slowly will change the tone about the future interest rate, at this point zou already should have a buyng position, since violent moves wont allowe you to participate at fair price.
Long
by ElGatoTrade
Second Try of Break outIn the last two weeks, we have observed that FX:EURUSD is earnestly trying to establish a new base, aiming to finally take off. Unfortunately, this cannot happen if certain variables don't change urgently. If not, EURUSD faces significant downturns repeatedly. What are these variables? First and foremost, US inflation needs to decline more sharply. This could occur if the job market cools down, or in other words, if we start to see lay-offs. It's not widely discussed that fewer people are entering the job market. This is primarily because there aren't many suitable candidates in the US who are both qualified for the available jobs and willing to work. Job vacancies can be misleading . While the number of jobs requiring extensive knowledge and education is on the rise, job vacancies remain high. Naturally, in the event of a serious recession, these vacancies will diminish until the economy finds a new equilibrium." US goverment bonds TVC:US10Y TVC:US02Y The fact that nobody willing to buy them is driving up the yields which is supporting very strongly the TVC:DXY we need to see bond yields falling which is honestly higly unlikely right now. Altough... We are just 14 minutes away to receive the Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast is ONLY 212K - If we wanna see the euro flying we need to see around 300 and above . DO NOT FORGET that today at 18:00( Budapest - Time ) Fed Chair Powell Speaks. Trade Safe- ElGato
by ElGatoTrade
FED vs ECB - Soft Landing As of today Thursday, December 14, 2023- ECB ( European Central Bank ) at 14:00 PM ( Budapest Time GMT+1 ) will disclouse their interest rate decision in the following categories. 11:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit 14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 14:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Over the last 2Mto 1M , depending on the data frequency, such as weekly or montly we have observed that, generally speaking, inflation is under control in the Eurozone. Therefore, any further rate hikes from the ECB are absolutely unnecessary and would cause serious issues in the Italian and German economies. Even though a rate hike would cause an immediate surge in EUR/USD, which is certainly in my interest since I hold a long position, in the case of a rate hike, I would close it nearly immediately. I expect that today the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged to allow time for the effects of their previous measures to fully transmit into the economy
Long
by ElGatoTrade
1
Fireworks continues - Uncontrolled -Can we do circuit breaker Circuit breaker level - Lets see. We are waiting for FED officials which is mostly not that interesting , but now they can wipe the market with few words - the opposite also works. Do not forget : Control the inflation means the FED wanna see huge lay-offs. _____________________________________________________________________________________ Longer view If you see job-market report shows layoff you buy if not sideline or if you wish just open a short. VALID UNTIL 08/02/2023 - 18:00 Budapest Time
U
by ElGatoTrade