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GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERN©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. The 4H chart shows that we are inside the 4th wave in grey, based on some data on the current price action, it looks like a Sidewaves pattern and is narrowing over time. So it suggests to me the view of an unfolding Triangle. The ((d))-navy wave is probably close to completing its role by creating the resistance level ((b)),((d))-navy, but this view is not strong, so at the moment in gold, there are at least several different wave counts at work at the same time. Let's look at the alternative view of ALT, which also shows that the 4-grey wave is not showing any signs of ending, but instead developing as a Flat, its ((b))-navy wave will move higher.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERNThe context suggests that we are inside the 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. I see that the 4-gray wave is taking a long time, and is probably getting forming narrower as time goes on, as well as its subwaves have a lot of Three-waves, which directly suggests to me the idea of ​​a Triangle (3-3-3-3-3 or ABCDE). A closer look, the ((a))-navy to ((c))-navy, and the ((d))-navy wave is actually not over yet but continues to grow to go a little higher . That could indicate that the resistance levels at 2,761.3 play an important role, which is also the ideal stopping point of the ((d))-navy wave. After that, the ((e))-navy wave will move lower. furthermore.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
1
GOLD (GC1!) ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - TRIANGLE PATTERNCHARTS OF THE DAY ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). The context suggests that we are inside a 4-grey wave, as the 3-grey wave ended at the high of 2,801.2. I see that the 4-grey wave is taking a long time, and is probably getting narrower as time goes on, as well as its subwaves have a lot of Three-waves, which directly suggests to me the idea of ​​a Triangle forming (3-3-3-3-3 or ABCDE). A closer look suggests that the ((a))-navy to ((d))-navy wave is probably completed, and we are inside a ((e))-navy wave. It will continue to aim for the nearest target at 2,633.8 (Wave ((e))-navy = 0.618 x wave ((c))-navy - this is a fibonacci multiple ratio of subwaves in the triangle pattern). Wave ((e))-navy will develop as a Zigzag. So, in the coming time, gold may move up with wave 5-grey, but not yet, because it needs more time to complete this Triangle pattern. While the price must always remain lower than the high of 2,734.2 to maintain the short-term bearish view with the Triangle pattern.
COMEX:GC1!
by ShaneHua
ASX:FPH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation). We see that ASX:FPH stock is about to complete a Triangle with wave 4, and prepare for the push up with wave 5. This analysis will guide you through the key points and important price levels to know the upcoming important market movements in the most intuitive way. Details: The 4H chart shows a more detailed representation of the Triangle of wave (4)-orange. I guess it is probably coming to an end, and preparing to end this fourth wave, so be ready for wave (5)-orange to return. A push above 35.45 would add weight and confidence to this view. Conversely, no push above, instead a break through the end of wave C-grey would eliminate the bullish view of wave (5)-orange. Invalidation point: The end of Wave C-grey Confirmation point: 35.45
ASX:FPHLong
by ShaneHua
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
ASX:COH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - 8 JAN, 2025 - BULLISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (y)-orange of Wave ((2))-navy Details: Looking closer, wave (2)-orange looks like it is developing as a Flat labeled A,B,C-grey, and we still have a push lower with wave C-grey. Then wave (3)-orange will return to head higher. On the other hand, the rapid and strong penetration of the 309.63 high directly suggests that wave (3)-orange in the ALT alternative scenario is probably unfolding. Invalidation point: 17.80 Confirmation point: 19.65
ASX:COH
by ShaneHua
GOAT/USDT Elliott Wave Analysis Short-Term The chart highlights a descending channel pattern integrated with Elliott Wave analysis, indicating possible short-term price movements. Currently, the price is navigating through Wave 4 and nearing a key resistance zone. Key Observations The price action reflects an Elliott Wave corrective structure within a descending channel. The ongoing Wave 4 suggests an upward move towards $0.69, a significant resistance level. After testing this resistance, the price could retrace to $0.32, completing Wave 5. Strategic Implications Watch for potential rejection or breakout signals around the $0.69 resistance zone for short-term opportunities. The projected dip to $0.32 could be a better area to re-enter for short-term trades. Focus on confirmation of Wave 5 completion to reassess the trend and strategy. Short-term traders should remain cautious and agile as the pattern unfolds.
by wsaetos
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2025©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Wave (ii)-orange may have finished and wave (iii)-orange is pushing lower, aiming for the nearest target around 2,608.4. While price must remain below 2,681.0 to maintain this view. On the other hand, the alternative scenario ALT (less likely), suggests that wave ((b))-navy in another development has completed, and wave ((c))-navy will move higher. A push above 2,681.0 would indicate this.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by ShaneHua
DXY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2024 - BEARISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Wave B-grey has just completed a corrective wave labeled ((a))((b))((c))-navy and wave ((c))-navy has completed a full five-waves in a Zigzag (5-3-5) pattern, so wave C-grey could be back to push lower. But it is too early to conclude such a major bearish trend. On the other hand, the shorter-term outlook suggests we may head down to the 105.420 area, while price must remain below 109.533 to maintain this view.
TVC:DXYShort
by ShaneHua
1
Technical Analysis on Kadant (KAI)Kadant ( KAI ) has maintained a clear upward trend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Throughout its bullish phase, the stock experienced periodic pullbacks between 20% and 30%. After recently hitting its all-time highs, the stock is currently undergoing a retracement, approaching potential support zones. Bullish Scenario The first potential support levels are close to the current price: SUP 1 around $304 POC 1 around $320 Another possible support zone is POC 2 near $280, which could provide a significant base if the price continues to drop. Bearish Scenario For a bearish outlook, key levels to monitor include: A breakdown below POC 1 ($320) A trendline break (green line) A breach of POC 2 ($280), indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
NYSE:KAI
by Giovanni_Bandini
Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave Journey to the End of 2024Bitcoin began its upward movement on August 5, 2024, at a low of $49,000, reaching a high of $65,200 on August 25, 2024. This marks the first impulsive wave in the Elliott Wave structure. 🔼 Afterward, the market entered a corrective phase, reaching a low of $52,400 on September 6, 2024, signaling a brief pause in the bullish trend. 🛑 Now, the third wave has started, which is typically the strongest and longest wave in a bullish trend. It is expected to extend to a price range of $100,000 to $110,000. 📈 Within this deep wave, two additional sub-waves are forming, adding complexity to the movement. These could keep Bitcoin on its upward trajectory through the end of December 2024 or into the first week of January 2025. 🌀 Ultimately, the fifth wave is projected to end around $130,000, signaling the possible start of a new corrective phase. ⏳
Long
by arzdigitalistha