Your Bitcoin map aheadBitcoin has, together with a good amount of stocks around the world, taken a good beating over the last months.
At the moment things are not looking good. But how likely is it to continue down? What are the risks and possibilities from now on?
First of all, much of the current price has already priced in both the political uncertainties and the risks of a war breakout. This in combination with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index which is again back to "extreme fear" do open up for the possibility of a near-by bottom.
On the other hand, there are some technical levels that are very relevant to keep a close eye on and to be well aware of their potential effects.
Two days ago Bitcoin got rejected from the downside of the lower bullish red RSI line. This, unfortunately, is a sign of particular weakness. It's what we typically refer to as a "bearish motorway", as an RSI that struggles to break above this level is a textbook example of inherently weak momentum.
And while on the RSI, this whole downturn is confirmed by the bearish blue RSI channel at which the recent futile and pathetic attempt at breaking above the upper bearish blue line was immediately shot down.
So far we do have a higher high and a higher low, albeit very marginally.
If the pivot bottom here were to be taken out, however, there's a near 100% certainty that we'll retest the green key support zone.
And it is here things begin to look gloomy.
So far we've had no less than six tests of this support zone over the last year. And as many of you may already know, per classical technical analysis any support or resistance loses in strength every time it's being tested. But not only that: each time it's being tested it also musters up additional technical strength to be released once there's a breakout.
Now, given that we've had six tests already, the impact upon a break thereof could prove dire.
With that said, there's little reason to expect the price to break through right away. It's far more likely that we'll see a minor price bounce upon the next support zone test, either as a type of bear flag, or as a steeper little V-shaped pump to trick any unassuming bulls that the worst is over with.
The real question at hand comes if or when we in fact break through. If the aforementioned scenario were to play out then we'd push through on the very eight attempt, thus having amassed enough technical power to cause some serious damage.
The level that most people will have on their radar upon such a breakout is $27 000 as it coincides both with the long-standing diagonal support as well as the EMA200 on the weekly.
But this is where things face a huge chance of turning into a leveling game of poker. This area is too obvious. If one too many people identify the same levels to go long, chances are it will fail badly. That's exactly what happened in early December last year at the $53 000 area, which was made up for an impossible-to-miss support cluster of technical goodies. And what happened after that? Well, the price plummeted by almost -20% in just a couple of days.
This in combination with the pent up pressure from six support touches to date would rather unlikely let Bitcoin's price stop there. Instead, we'd more likely be looking at something like this:
Such turn of events would scare off even the last die-hard perma bull and cause them to curse Bitcoin. That would be THE spot to buy - one that could pave the way for a sharp V-shaped correction to initiate the primary 5th wave of the secular 5th wave.
In this sense, as long as the 4th wave doesn't take out the 2nd wave top at ~$13 700 (give or take depending on what chart you use) then the 5-wave impulse would still be intact.
Long term I still remain very bullish. Having said that, I neither want to part-take in shaky times like these when the momentum is weak and there's room for another further 60 percent downside. Given that this pivotal level of $13 700 holds up, chances strongly favor strong 6-figure Bitcoins before this secular cycle comes to halt.
If, on the other hand, that specific level were to be taken out, you can bet your bottom dollar that we're either in for some continued and depressed sideways movements, or that the $65 000 and $68 000 peaks in fact was a first-of-its-kind primary double top.
//Long Life Trading
