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Elliottwaveanalyis

AAPL (Apple): Has a Large Correction Begun? More Downside Ahead?On this chart, we are currently tracking the potential beginning of a larger downtrend, which could be a larger-degree Wave 4 correction. It is possible that a larger-degree third wave topped in December 2024 at $260, and for now, I am assuming this is the case. While further confirmation is needed, the price has already broken below our first signal line, which supports the idea that a larger decline has begun—unless the next rally develops into a clear impulse structure. At the moment, the price appears to be in the late stages of Wave C of Circle Wave A to the downside. Immediate resistance sits between $220 and $224, and only a break above $224 would indicate that Circle Wave B to the upside may have already started. One important note: Circle Wave B could technically overshoot to the upside, meaning that if Circle Wave A completed as a three-wave pullback, we could even see a new high in the next bounce before the larger downtrend continues. This is something to keep an open mind about, as it is still early to confirm a substantial top on the long-term chart. For now, as long as resistance at $224 holds, the assumption remains that Circle Wave A needs one more low before a stronger bounce occurs.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by MCOGlobal
Alphabet Stock (GOOGL): Bounce Incoming?There is growing potential that a major price top has formed, particularly after the break below the November low, which has increased the probability of this scenario. The move down from the February high appears to be a three-wave structure, and I am watching for a bounce from the current region. However, this could simply be a B-wave in the yellow scenario, setting up for much lower prices. At this stage, it's too early to confirm a major top with certainty. The structure of the next rally will provide crucial insights. The current downward move is not yet a clear five-wave decline, leaving the door open for higher prices in the white scenario. However, even that becomes increasingly unlikely with a break below $157.50. For now, the working thesis is that a major top has formed, but confirmation of new highs would only come with a break above $196.69. In the short term, the price should ideally react to the current region, but we need to see a break above $173 (closing the last gap) to indicate a local low is in place. If that happens, we could be in a B-wave, which would likely target the $183 to $196 zone before the next major decision point.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by MCOGlobal
3
Avalanche: Long-Term Bullish Above Support & Other SignalsThe end of February didn't do much harm to Avalanche, which is a bullish signal. In early February, the lowest price hit was $21, in late February the lowest price was $20. The difference is only 5%. This small gap between these lows indicate that the bearish force is over. Let me explain. There was a low on the 13-January session at $32, the low in February was $21. That's a big gap. For a new low to be considered of any value from a technical standpoint, the minimum, after the $21 low, would be $17 or much lower around $9 or $8. When we get $21 first followed by $20, we are simply looking at a double-bottom. A double-bottom is a bottom pattern and tends to lead to a trend reversal. The next little fact that is of interest to us, Cryptocurrency bulls, is the existence of a long-term support, on this chart labelled as "baseline." A lower low as mentioned above would require a break of this level. This is highly unlikely. Well, let's not go too deep into this type of technical analysis, let's consider a different perspective. In late 2023 after a strong period of sideways with a downward bent, a complex correction, AVAXUSDT moved to produce a 5-up waves bullish impulse. As this impulse ended, we have the same dynamics as before, between January and November 2023, a long complex correction. The action that AVAX has been witnessing since March 2024 is all part of a correction in Elliott Wave Theory terms. Once this correction is over, we will have a new bullish wave. This bullish wave tends to develop in five steps. Three steps forward and two backwards. The 2025 bull-market. This impulse will end in a very strong new All-Time High. This is simple technical analysis and it will end up being right. Do you agree? If you do, make sure to show your support by following me. 2025 is going to be big. It will be big. Trust. Patience is key. The worldwide adoption of Cryptocurrencies as a means of payments will result in world peace. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
1
Nifty 50 Elliott Wave Analysis: Potential Retracement LevelsNifty 50 Elliott Wave Analysis: Potential Retracement Levels The wave count for Nifty 50 has been structured from the Covid-19 lows of 23rd March 2020. Since then, the index has undergone a well-defined Elliott Wave progression, forming distinct impulsive and corrective waves. Below is a breakdown of the wave structure and the potential retracement targets. Wave Count Breakdown: 1. Intermediate Wave (1): o Completed in October 2021 with a high of 18,604.45. 2. Corrective Wave (WXY) - Intermediate Wave (2): o A corrective retracement followed, unfolding in a WXY pattern. o The correction concluded on 13th June 2022, with a low of 15,183.40. o The retracement was less than 38%, indicating a strong bullish phase. 3. Intermediate Wave (3): o Nifty commenced its third wave, subdividing into a five-wave structure of a minor degree. o This bullish wave extended significantly and peaked on 23rd September 2024, with a high of 26,277.35. Retracement Expectations: • Wave (3) exhibited an extended Wave 3, and according to the Elliott Wave principle, when Wave 3 is extended within a subordinate wave structure, a retracement typically occurs towards: o The bottom of subordinate Wave 4 or o 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level • Key levels to watch for potential retracement: o 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 22,039.45 o Wave 4 bottom (4th June lows): 21,281.45 If the retracement aligns with Elliott Wave rules, we may see a pullback toward these levels before the next bullish wave resumes. Pls follow for such insightful ideas. Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Market movements are subject to various factors, and past patterns do not guarantee future performance. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. ________________________________________ With these insights, traders and investors can monitor Nifty 50's price action closely to determine whether the expected retracement unfolds as anticipated.
NSE:NIFTY
by imkhushal
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance level of 1.03609.Colleagues, the situation on the markets is quite complicated. Now we are witnessing a period of complex combined corrections and lengthening waves. But it is also possible to analyze it. At the moment I expect the big gap to close and reach the resistance level of 1.03609. We all know that gaps usually close. This will be a correction in wave “2”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
9
TOTAL3 - ALT SEASON - Bull Swing CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 is ready for the Alt Season. #Altcoins will be rockin' the boat in '25. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is running out of steam, thus opening the door for #AltSeason to start. The correction on MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN Dominance is the key to #Alts to shine. 1.13T MC has been touched, previous #ATH. Now CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 is in a Wave 4 (#ElliottWave Triangle), with Wave 5 of the Larger Degree C Wave about to shoot. Targets between the #Fibonacci Extensions 200-261.8%. That's the 1.5T to 1.8T range.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by EW4X
BTCUSD Reverse Triangle BTC peaked on November 23 and then entered a sideways corrective formation. The corrective formation is called a reverse triangle, and it is characterized by the following features: Three consecutive lower bottoms (A-B-C) Two consecutive higher tops (B-D) With the potential completion of the E bottom of the triangle, we can take a buy position on a lower timeframe if we identify a reversal pattern at the bottoms. The initial target is a new all-time high.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by voulgarakis
1
Predicting Bitcoin's Cycle Using the Elliott Wave Theory, Part 3Hello Traders. With the new year upon us, I think sufficient time has passed for the charts to develop from our previous #Bitcoin analysis. Having accurately forecasted the macro trends for each pivot within a reasonable margin of error, I believe we're approaching another pivotal moment this year, aligning with our previous predictions. Please take this post with a grain of salt, and more importantly, please use it to add confluence to your personal theories. In this post, we will be diving deeper into the Elliott Wave Theory by also integrating the Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory. By combining the two theories, the chart below represents our current position within the final leg for what could be giving us signs of a possible reversal (again, within margin of error depending on how far wave 5 extends): Wyckoff believed that markets move in cycles, which arguably has a direct correlation to the Elliott Wave 5-wave/3-wave cycle. Wyckoff introduced a four-stage market cycle , attributing it to the actions of institutional players who strategically influence price movements to capitalize on the behavior of uninformed traders. Simply put, the theory gives us a further understanding of 'cause and effect' within the markets. In my view, the Wyckoff cycle also does a fantastic job of representing market psychology. And if intertwined correctly with the Elliott Wave Theory, price action tends to follow patterns in similar ways. The Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory often overlap in their application and interpretation of market behavior, but they approach the market from different perspectives. Both theories aim to understand and predict market movements based on the behavior of market participants and price cycles, making them complementary in many ways. Commonalities Between the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Theory: Market Cycles - Wyckoff Theory identifies a four-stage market cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. The Elliott Wave Theory also emphasizes cyclic behavior through a fractal structure of impulsive and corrective waves within broader market cycles. - Both theories suggest that price movements are not random but follow identifiable patterns driven by market psychology. Psychological Basis - Wyckoff focuses on the interaction between "big players" (institutional traders) and "uninformed traders," highlighting group psychology and how institutional actions exploit public sentiment. - Elliott Wave focuses on the crowd psychology behind price movements, suggesting that mass investor sentiment drives waves in predictable patterns. **Both theories reflect the influence of human behavior and emotions on market prices.** Application Across Timeframes - Both theories are applicable across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to long-term investments. This flexibility allows traders to use them in conjunction for deeper market analysis. Identification of Trends and Reversals - In Wyckoff Theory, phases like Markup and Markdown align with Elliott Wave's impulsive trends, while Accumulation and Distribution phases can correspond to corrective wave patterns. - Both approaches aim to identify key turning points in the market, helping traders anticipate trends and reversals. ----- The Four Stages of the Market Cycle According to Wyckoff Accumulation Phase This is a sideways range where institutional traders accumulate positions quietly to avoid driving prices higher. During this phase, the asset remains out of the public spotlight, and uninformed traders are largely unaware of the activity. On a price chart, the phase appears as a range-bound movement between areas of support and resistance. Markup Phase Following the accumulation phase, the market enters a classic uptrend. As prices rise, uninformed traders begin to notice and join in, further fueling the rally. Institutional players may take partial profits or continue holding for greater gains. Short sellers caught off guard are forced to cover their positions, adding additional buying pressure and driving prices to new highs. Distribution Phase After the uptrend loses momentum, the market transitions into a sideways range, marking the distribution phase. Institutional players use this period to offload their holdings, while uninformed traders, still expecting higher prices, continue to buy. Some institutional traders may also initiate short positions during this phase to benefit from the subsequent price decline. On the price chart, this phase appears as a reversal of the uptrend into a sideways range. Markdown Phase The markdown phase is characterized by a downtrend following the distribution phase. Institutional traders add to their short positions, while uninformed traders, recognizing the decline too late, sell in panic, creating further downward pressure. The market eventually reaches new lows as selling accelerates. The Model of Group Psychology After the markdown phase, the cycle often repeats, moving from accumulation to markup, distribution, and markdown again. The Wyckoff cycle offers a simplified perspective on market behavior, focusing on the psychological dynamics between two groups: institutional traders (the "big players") and uninformed traders (the "small players"). It highlights how the mistakes and emotional reactions of uninformed traders often benefit institutional players. The Wyckoff cycle provides valuable insights into market behavior but is not without limitations: Limitations of the Wyckoff Trading Cycle Difficulty in Identifying Phases Distinguishing between accumulation and distribution phases can be challenging. What appears to be an accumulation phase might turn into a distribution phase, with the market unexpectedly breaking lower. Timing Challenges Entering trades during accumulation or distribution phases is difficult due to the lack of clear stop-loss levels. Placing stops around support and resistance often leads to being trapped. Complexity in Trading Trends Trading the markup and markdown phases requires skill, as they are filled with complex price action patterns. Modern markets often experience frequent trend reversals, complicating trade execution. Irregular Cycles The market does not always follow the textbook sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Variations such as accumulation followed by markdown or other combinations are possible. Despite its limitations, the Wyckoff cycle remains a useful framework for understanding market behavior. It is best combined with other strategies, such as price action and market dynamics, to enhance its practical applicability. While modern markets may reduce the cycle's predictive reliability, it still serves as a powerful tool for traders who know how to apply it effectively. Proper Application of the Elliott Wave Theory and Wyckoff Overlap (in Practice): Trend Identification: The Markup Phase in Wyckoff often aligns with Elliott's Impulse Waves (1, 3, and 5), while the Markdown Phase aligns with corrective waves or bearish impulses. Sideways Markets: Wyckoff’s Accumulation and Distribution phases correspond to Elliott’s Corrective Waves (A-B-C) or sideways consolidations (Flats and Triangles). Volume Confirmation: Traders can use Wyckoff’s volume analysis to validate Elliott Wave patterns, especially in identifying wave 3's (typically accompanied by high volume) and wave 5's (often showing declining volume). Timing and Execution: Wyckoff’s emphasis on identifying support/resistance levels and trading ranges can help refine the entry and exit points suggested by the Elliott Wave Theory. Combining the Two: Many traders find value in combining these theories: - Use Wyckoff to identify key price levels and market phases (e.g., when accumulation or distribution is occurring). - Use Elliott Wave to determine the broader trend structure and anticipate the next moves within those levels. - By integrating Wyckoff’s volume-driven approach with Elliott’s fractal patterns, traders can gain a comprehensive view of the market and improve their ability to time trades effectively. ---- By integrating the concepts from both theories and the outlined schematics, we can now take a closer look at how Bitcoin is behaving through the lens of these frameworks. As observed, Bitcoin appears to be nearing the completion of the potential 5th wave we've been discussing over the past year. In my view, a bear market (or at least a significant correction) may be approaching. While timing is uncertain due to the unlikely nature of extensions, we can use insights from both Wyckoff and Elliott Wave theories to gauge our current position. I believe we are likely in the Distribution phase, which aligns with the 5th wave. The 5th wave can extend as much as it wants, but it won't change the overall conclusion of the cycle. We still anticipate the cyclical behavior that Bitcoin has shown in the past. While past price action isn't necessarily a predictor of future movements, it often follows a similar pattern.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by XForceGlobal
22
DXY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2024 - BEARISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master. Wave B-grey has just completed a corrective wave labeled ((a))((b))((c))-navy and wave ((c))-navy has completed a full five-waves in a Zigzag (5-3-5) pattern, so wave C-grey could be back to push lower. But it is too early to conclude such a major bearish trend. On the other hand, the shorter-term outlook suggests we may head down to the 105.420 area, while price must remain below 109.533 to maintain this view.
TVC:DXYShort
by ShaneHua
1
Starbucks Corporation: Elliott Wave Correction Unfolding [SHORT]NASDAQ:SBUX Overview: Starbucks is in the midst of an Elliott Wave corrective structure, likely entering the C-wave of an ABC correction. The bearish momentum suggests that the correction isn't complete, presenting an opportunity to short as the structure completes. Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave A: The initial impulsive wave down broke key support levels, signaling the start of a correction. This wave exhibited strong bearish momentum. Wave B: The corrective upward retracement faced resistance near $93.12, forming a potential lower high and respecting the descending channel. With failure to break out above $94, this wave has likely concluded, paving the way for the final corrective wave. Wave C: Currently forming, this wave is expected to extend toward lower Fibonacci retracement levels, targeting $88.71, $84.29, and $79.88. The typical symmetry in Elliott Wave corrections suggests that Wave C may equal or exceed the length of Wave A. Key Trading Levels: Entry: $93.12 (near the end of Wave B). Stop Loss: $94.00 (just above Wave B resistance). Target 1: $88.71 (38.2% Fibonacci extension of Wave A). Target 2: $84.29 (61.8% extension and channel support). Target 3: $79.88 (full measured move of Wave C and strong support). Trading Strategy: Short Entry: Look for confirmation of rejection near $93.12. This aligns with the conclusion of Wave B and the start of Wave C. Risk Management: Place a tight stop-loss at $94, above the resistance line formed by Wave B. Profit-Taking: Scale out of positions as price approaches each Fibonacci target and key support zones. Additional Notes: The Elliott Wave correction is part of a broader descending wedge structure. A decisive breakdown could trigger a stronger bearish continuation. Confluence of technical factors (Fibonacci levels, trendline resistance, and Elliott Wave symmetry) supports the bearish scenario. Monitor volume and RSI for divergences to confirm the wave progression. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risks, and you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on this analysis. Always trade responsibly and within your own risk tolerance.
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by Whisperwave
VIRTUAL’s Incredible Year: Is a Top in Sight??VIRTUAL has experienced a phenomenal rise in recent months, climbing to rank 36 in the overall crypto market with an impressive $3.7 billion market cap. This meteoric growth is a testament to the strong interest and momentum behind the project. However, as we approach the end of the year, there are signs that a potential top could be forming. Let’s analyse the chart and key scenarios to watch for in the coming weeks. Key Levels and Observations: 1.) Elliott Wave Analysis: The price action suggests we are completing the 5th wave of an Elliott Wave cycle, signaling a potential exhaustion of the current uptrend. Based on the Fibonacci extension of the last corrective wave, the 1.618 level is a critical resistance at $3.8134. A breakout above $3.8134 could open the doors to test the psychological level of $4. However, failure to break this level might confirm the end of the 5th wave and initiate a correction. 2.) Head and Shoulders Formation (Potential Setup): There are early signs of a Left Shoulder formation on the chart. If the price rejects at the 1.618 Fibonacci level, we could see the development of a Head and Right Shoulder, forming a bearish reversal pattern. Confirmation of this pattern would require a clear neckline and increased selling volume, signaling a trend reversal. 3.) Time-Based Correction: A correction could align with the broader crypto market trends as we head into early 2025. Given the potential for Bitcoin to drop to the 84K support zone, this could trigger a sell-off in altcoins, including VIRTUAL. 4.) Overall Market Sentiment: While the broader market has been bullish, a Bitcoin-led correction could drag down the entire crypto market. Altcoins often experience sharper corrections during Bitcoin downturns, which could result in VIRTUAL retracing some of its gains. Volume Analysis: Monitor volume levels at key resistance points (e.g., $3.8134 and $4) for confirmation of breakout or rejection. Market Correlation: Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s price action, as any significant movement could directly impact VIRTUAL and other altcoins. Note: These are my personal thoughts and interpretations of the current market conditions. Please take them with a grain of salt. The crypto market is highly volatile and further data and confirmations are essential before drawing definitive conclusions. Happy trading!
Short
by SiDec
3
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 24 NOV, 2024 ©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. Wave count changed to maximize probability. Wave 3-grey has ended, and wave 4-grey is still unfolding, there is little data to suggest it has ended, I think it may still be developing. More specifically wave 4-grey is developing as a Flat, its wave ((a))-navy has completed, and its wave ((b))-navy is pushing higher, it could reach 2.765 (Wave ((b)) retraces 90% of wave ((a))-navy), or higher, then a push lower with wave ((c))-navy will unfold. Alternative wave count: Wave 4-grey has ended, and wave 5-grey will unfold. We also have a pullback with wave ((ii))-navy after that.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ShaneHua