ADBE - 2 way this could play outWe have 2 possiblities here.
Either we are in a complex WXY correction which would then take price towards 415 i n a corrective fashion similar to the dotted line drawing.
or
we are finishing a Flat corrective wave 2 pattern in which case price should remain above the invalidation level at 439 .
The usual termination point for wave (C) of a Flat pattern is the 100% and 127.2% projection of wave (A) from (B) but the 127.2% level would be below the invalidation level, therefore we can discard it for this setup.
100% level comes at 451, which is also the 78.6% retracement level of wave 1, known also as the last line of defense for bulls.
So, price needs to ideally remain above that level if we are to see higher prices.
Note also that any move above 505 even before touching the 451 level should be considered as a big bullish indication!
Elliottwavebelgium
DOV - Breaking out of consolidation. Great R/R ratio!I will keep this simple.
We got a new all time high breakout, followed by a nice consolidation from which we are now breaking out.
You can look to buy at current level or wait for a move above yesterday's high if you like and keep it as long as price remains above 120.
I'm not putting any target zone for now, as I suspect this could turn into a more long term position.
DAX - Ready to go down like the other indexes ?Dax, like the other indexes is at a decisive point right now.
If we really are in this ending Diagonal, we should see price drop sharply very soon.
On this setup, same as my post on the S&P, the R/R ratio totally makes up for the low probability of this trade.
Similar to this setup :
An exemple of how this can play out,
Notice the similarity of this setup to WTI in August !
TESLA - Follow up to previous post - Time to take profitsTime to take profits here and let late buyers fight the bears.
With our members, we closed part of our positions at 573 some of our positions a week ago and now we closed most of our remaining and left only 1/4 with a stop at 510.
If it continues higher after what seems to be a triangle consolidation.
Looking for 630 next where red wave V would be equal to wave I.
BITCOIN - Finally reaching 20 000$ ?! - Other followingWe seem to have finished a Triangle count here so can look for the move higher to be equal to wave (i) which gives us a potential target of 20219 .
Of course it can go higher and I'd love to see it go higher but 20k is already a great target.
If price goes above 19340 , it should continue to go higher towards the noted Fib clusters.
Same view goes for the other cryptos !
Notice that Litecoin and XR P have the biggest growth potential among the list.
For LTC I think it's doeable but XRP i'm not that sure, so, carefull on your allocations.
But if price goes below orange wave e , we could see a sell off here so be twice as carefull in that case!
FUTU - Support at 41/43, good place to start building longsThis one has been pretty good to me and my subsribers us althought our first buy in was stopped out for a tiny loss but we were able to get in again and got some nice profits out of it.
Now we're in a fourth wave so this could and probably will continue some more sideways if it stops at support.
So, building longs slowly is the way to go imo but only if we see price stall around the marked support zone !
S&P500 - Is this just a fakeout ? Fantastic R/RThis is the SPY ETF but the count is the same for SPX too.
I don't know if we're in a 3 waves correction here or in a 1,2 situation.
- If price starts to go lower but in corrective fashion and doesn't invalidate the count, chances increase (by a lot) that we'll see a rally higher.
- If on the other hand it keeps on going lower, I expect this to be a wave C or Y, completing a Flat correction or a WXY combination that started on September 2nd.
- And if of course price goes above 269.4, this would make the Diagonal pink wave 3 the shortest motive wave hence invalidate the count and thus probably continue higher.
The R/R is great and completely makes up for the low probability of this setup at this point if you want to short right away.
For the more risk averse traders among you, you could wait for a sharp drop below pink wave 4 before initiating any trade or simply a 5 waves drop followed by a 3 waves correction.
Gold - Reversing now or one more tiny drop first ?We seem to have finished a WXY correction contained in this descending channel.
A move above orange wave iv is a first sign that price is reversing but you can wait for a break above the middle channel line which would be a another bullish sign, followed by a move outside the channel.
Beware though, we could see one more tiny drop down to around 1750 if the alternate count is correct and this is actually just orange wave iv.
NFLX - Going for 570. Will 662 follow after ? Good R/R setup !NFLX - Looks like we could see a rally up to 570 first, followed by 662 next but this view has to be evaluated anew once (if) price reaches 570.
Best is to wait for a push above 496 before buying, in which case Stops can be placed at 475 but I recommend using 458.8, just to give it some more room.
Ps: Notice that we have a potential Head & Shoulder pattern, building potentially the right shoulder.
Russell2000 - Trouble ahead ! Shorts recommendedLooking at the other indexes, I have to favor the Flat count on this one.
I don't believe to be in a 1,2 / i,ii situation but it's still a valid option just as a potential Diagonal count !
But in both cases price needs to remain above invalidation level !
Shorting is the best option for now.
For non-elliottitians :
Idealized chart :
Other indexes are at similiar position.
DAX - Simple bullish breakout setupThis is a simple setup that could yield around 300-350points.
Simply waiting for a break above the resistance zone.
Personnaly, I'm putting a buy order at 13250 with a Stop of 60points.
If we see a big candle breaking higher with high volume confirming the move, I will immediately move my stop to it's opening price.
Beware fake-outs though !
If price breaks out but comes back down again, support is around 13150 at first followed by 13096 next.
If this goes below that level I will simply cancel my order.
AUDUSD - Bullish dollar will take this lowerLooks like a Triangle for now. So, price should fall as long as it remains below 6975.
If this goes above the stop lvl, the forecast could still play out but instead of a triangle, we get a Flat correction.
As long as price doesn't go above the 78.6% retracement level, I will remain with a bearish view here.
EURGBP - Going up. Fantastic R/R !Combo correction with perfect hit of the ideal Fib ratios. The small divergence also indicates the 5 waves down for orange C are complete.
Longs now are recommended especially seen the very small risk we have.
For a more conservative entry you can look to buy once the middle channel line is broken and price goes above wave (iv).
S&P500 - Long term chart We are in this complexe wave 4 correction which is freaking everyone out and that's good, that is it's purpose.
Right now we're seeing price retesting the 200MA, if they can hold, we should see one more leg lower (refer to my previous posts).
First support should then be around the 1950-1850 zone.
If we don't get a new low, expect price to continue sideways between top and bottom just to wear everyone out before ralling higher.
One possible target zone would be around 4880 in the coming months or probably years.
That zone will have to be re-evaluated once this wave 4 is over but it's a good start for now.
AUDUSD - Downtrend has resumed - Going for new low - Great R/R!We should be in the fourth wave of this 5 wave decline.
On the 15min TF we can count 5 waves down and are currently in this 3 waves correction which ideally should hold around the 0.60 zone.
A drop below wave a high of 5935, would increase the odds in our favor.
Invalidation is at 6074 but if price goes above the 78.6% retracement level, chances are high the count might be wrong.
S&P500 - One more push lower before relief rally ?If this count is correct, we should see price go down one more time for the fifth wave of this bearish impulse wave.
We could see resistance around current levels if not slightly higher around 2620 were we find the 100EMA.
One more reason to like this count is the bearish divergence on RSI and MACD.
Beware, the count gets negated if we go above 2859 !
US 10Y T-Notes - One more push higher possible - Good R/R !Looks like wave ((iv)) found support at the expected zone marked by the 100, 200 EMAs and the 38.2 Fib level.
So the chance for a continuation higher are increasing.
Buy now with a stop at 137.1 is not a bad idea as R/R is pretty good.
^Previous post :
NAVISTAR - 150% rally possible !!!Nav has the potential to go above 50 but at first let's go for at least 31-32 if we don't see it go below 15.70.
On daily we have a clean 5 waves rise followed by this ABC correction. We have length equality between A & C at 16.80 and the 50% retracement level of previous impulsive wave and also historic support.
On the 30min chart, looks like we have 5 waves up and are now seeing a correction. So, at 17.5 - 18.5 I'll buy.