Elliottwavecorrection
VIA/BTC 4H BUYVia/btc 4H buy for C subwave up to complete the larger degree B wave in this correction.
WABI/BTC Flat correction completeWABI completed a flat correction. Expecting impulsive move to the upside.
Elliott Wave View: DAX Structure Remains BullishShort Term Elliott Wave view in DAX shows a bullish sequence structure from December 28, 2018 low, favoring further upside. The Index has potential to reach 100% extension towards 11912 – 12157 before ending cycle from December 2018 low. The rally from December 28, 2018 low is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 11321.62 and wave ((X)) ended at 10865.31.
Wave ((Y)) rally is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The first leg wave (A) of this zigzag ended at 11676.86 as 5 waves impulse. Up from 10865.31, wave 1 ended at 11217.3, wave 2 ended at 11018.95, wave 3 ended at 11556.87, wave 4 ended at 11416.08, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 11676.86. Wave (B) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from Feb 9, 2019 low (10865.31) before Index resumes the rally higher. We are looking for 7 swings lower to complete wave (B) in 11445 – 11341 area where buyers should appear to resume the rally for new highs or produce a 3 waves bounce at least.
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Should Find Buyers AgainShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally from December 26, 2018 low (2348.50) is unfolding as an impulse. Index has ended wave ((3)) of this impulse move at 2816.88. In the chart below, we can see wave (5) of ((3)) move from 2612.42 low subdivides in 5 waves impulse of a lesser degree. Up from 2612.42 low, wave 1 ended at 2738.98 and pullback to 2681.83 ended wave 2. Index then rallied again and ended wave 3 at 2813.49. Wave 4 pullback ended at 2775.13, and wave 5 of ((3)) ended at 2816.88.
Wave ((4)) pullback of the larger degree is currently in progress before Index resumes the rally higher in wave ((5)). The internal of wave ((4)) is unfolding as a zigzag where the first leg down to 2767.66 ended wave (A). While wave (B) bounce stays below wave ((3)) at 2816.88, expect Index to turn lower to continue the zigzag correction within wave ((4)). We believe dips in the Index still can see buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for 1 more leg higher in wave ((5)) before cycle from December 20, 2018 low ends. We don’t like selling the Index.
Elliott Wave View: Short Term Bullish in AlibabaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Alibaba is bullish with the rally from February 8, 2019 low ($163.58) unfolding as an impulse. Furthermore, the cycle starting from January 23, 2019 low has not reached 100% target, thus still favoring further upside. Near term, rally from Jan 23 low to $171.05 ended wave ((i)) and pullback to $165.09 ended wave ((ii)). Wave (( iii )) ended 187.45 peak.
Up from $165.09, wave (i) ended at $172.68, wave (ii) ended at $169.8, wave ( iii ) ended at $183.72, and wave (iv) ended at $178.71. Wave (v) unfolding as an ending diagonal which ended at 187.45 peak. Below from there, the stock should now pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from Feb 19, 2019 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at $165.09 stays intact, favor more upside in Alibaba in near term.
BTC:USD WXY Correction 2013-15 & 2017-19 ComparisonSummary:
2013-2015 and 2017-2019 bear markets show a similar WXY count supported by a Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line hit and Fib Retracements confluences.
WXY Count & FIB Retracement:
Measured from the A wave of the W count, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.272 in 2013-15 Bear Market. Similarly, measured from the A wave, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.618 in 2017-19 Bear Market.
FIB Confluence:
In the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2013-15 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at the .786 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Similarly, in the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2017-19 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at a 1 to 1 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement.
Schiff Pitchfork:
The 1.272 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Similarly, the 1.618 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean).
Forecast:
Sideways movement to test the median line. More sideways movement to break through the median line, test it and finally break through the upper warning line, test it, find support and confirm a Bull Market Run.
Invalidation:
A rejection by the Median Line in the Schiff Pitchfork or any of the standard deviation lines or price is unable to cross and find support above 6,400 and/or cannot find support at the 200 Week Moving average as it retests it and breaks 2018 December Lows will trigger an WXYXZ correction pattern.
Elliott Wave View: Crude Oil on the Verge of a BreakoutSince bottoming at $42.36 on December 24, 2018, Crude Oil (CL_F) has rallied more than 30%. The initial rally to $55.75 on February 4, 2019 took the form of an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. We label this 5 waves rally as wave ((A)) of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure in higher degree. Then the pullback to $51.27 ended wave ((B)) as the chart below shows. From there, Oil has broken above wave ((A)), suggesting that the next leg higher in wave ((C)) has started.
Internal of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse where wave (1) ended at $57.61 and wave (2) ended at $55.02. As is typical of an impulse, we can see the fractal nature with wave (1) further subdivides into 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Wave (2) unfolded as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at $56.64, wave B ended at $57.81, and wave C ended at 55.02. Oil is now within wave (3) of ((C)) and should continue higher while dips stay above $55.00, but more importantly above $51.27. This view will gain validity if Oil starts to break above February 22 peak at $57.81. We don’t like selling Oil
Bear Case If BTC Is In ABCDE TriangleI've been scalping long with tight stops and targets. If I am to get a long term swing trade I want a lower price than right at the triangle top.
It is possible that we're in a large sideways ABCDE triangle with the legs formed by ABC corrections.
That would mean chopping back into the triangle and the only long term long trade is at the bottom of the triangle support, probably around 3400.
This is not a very good hold and hope area on the chart. There's still a lot BTC has to do to prove it is bullish.