Bitcoin #BTCUSD - more downside in viewAfter the three wave advance to the upside, the marked is reversing again towards the local lows at the level of $8,200. This small wave up might be a wave x, which indicates a possible drop lower towards the level of $7,712 as the correction evolves into a complex one. Moreover, the golden trend line is still providing the dynamic resistance for the price, so as long as this line is not violated, the outlook remains bearish.
Elliottwavecorrection
ADABTC (Cardano) BUY @ WolfeWave & Prior Wave 4 Low area.ADA/BTC (Cardano) BUY, 05/07/18, written 9:45 p.m. EST, by Michael Mansfield
Cardano's Wave 4 is likely bottoming at or near the Wolfe Wave trend-line (dashed black line). The low came a day early to what was optimal but within the 5-12 days that I expected the retracement to last, and mentioned in the prior Cardano post. Nevertheless, even if the low is in, the correction may end up more complex, which is fine.
A Wave 5 move up should unfold to the Gann Fan 3/l line (blue downward angled line labeled Elliott Wave V & 5), which is also where the 50% retracement level of the January high to March crash low is, and where an Andrews resistance line (solid black), all meet.
The price area mentioned above should provide very strong time & price resistance. However, should this expected rally have a steeper slope and more volume than April rally, this wave count might be one degree too low, thus it would more bullish than I currently show.
The low will likely be confirmed if and when Cardano breaks the down channel resistance line (black line closest to current price).
Once the forecasted Wave 5 top is in, I would then expect a larger degree ABC correction down (labled A B C in red). Then repeat 1-5 back up later in the summer.
NEGATED IF:
This outlook is negated and would then be bearish if the ADABTC fails to break the Gann Fan 2/1 line (blue downward sloping line at Elliott Wave 3 area), within 10 days and/or it breaks 0.000027 to the downside.
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BUY idea:
Buy @ 0.00003650 or better (currently @ 0.00003635, probably OK to buy up to 0.000038).
Initial Protective Stop Loss @ 0.000027
Move stop to 0.00003350 if .000040 is reached,
Consider exiting 1/3 position @ 0.000041 and move remaining
position stop to break-even.
Wave 5 target is 0.00005264 so exit another 1/3 at 0.000052 and trail stop below 2-3 day low at that point.
If the correction turns out to more complex, as mentioned above, it should be OK with the stop we suggest. (See prior Cardano post from 05/03/18, for zoomed out view).
We will try to let you know if the waves unfold as expected in order to pinpoint the high time and price, or if the outlook becomes more bullish or more bearish.
RATIONALE:
Cardano fell into the Wolfe Wave (Wave 1 - Wave 4 trend-line) target area, which also met the Elliott Wave's prior Wave 4 target area.
The current low was almost exactly at the expected price from the prior post, and 5 days from the top, if you count the top day, which was a large range outside bar reversal down.
Volume has declined since the high on 05/03/18, which is expected if this is just a correction. If it was a new bear phase, volume during the sell off should have increased, but It did not increase.
That is bullsih.
The sell off of 5 days showed very low momentum. This, plus the declining volume means that the selling was likely almost all just profit taking, with no large short positions.
This is also a bullish sign.
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TRADER TIP: A bullish Wolfe Wave support price target line is drawn from the Wave (i) high to the Wave (iv) low (opposite for a bearish Wolf Wave resistance price target line).
In either case, these are supposedly the average minimum price expectation for a pullback or retracement. As always, use this tool prudently along with other supporting/confirming techniques.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO
OmiseGo (OMGUSD) bears will soon crash the bulls’ partyThe 4hr tf chart of OmiseGO (OMGUSD) from ~$7.77 on April 1, 2018 till present is identified in this analysis as 3 wave move (corrective)Elliott wave structure that should end up as a zigzag once minute wave ((c)) is complete. Termination of minute wave ((c)) based on this analysis would also result in the termination of a Minor wave degree.
The implication of the above is that a sell off should follow that will either deeply retrace the uptrend from $7.77 or even close below $7.77.
The target area for the termination of minute wave ((c)) of OmiseGO (OMGUSD) is indicated by the horizontal green lines.
POI (point of invalidation) for this analysis (not shown here) is a price close above $23.57.
ETHUSD (Ethereum) Heading Lower to $565-550 ChannelETHUSD Heading Lower to $565-550 MMansfield. 9:00 p.m. EST 04/30/18
Ethereum should tag the lower channel line within 48 hours or less.
REASONING:
We saw mostly declining volume into the retracement high that failed to make a new high (labeled Wave B).
The WT Cross indicator showed divergence at the $721 high, and the MACD (3,10,9) followed with clear intra-wave divergence at the $703.99 retracement high.
Lower targets are at least $565-550, channel line that is also near the Wolf Wave Wave 2 to Wave 4 trendline for added confluence of support.
ETH may drop to $511 area, but if $495 is broken on the downside, then a further bull move could be in trouble!
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO
Elliott wave analysis of Ripple (XRPUSD): 4hr tf My previous post is referenced below in order to keep track of the progression of Ripple (XRPUSD).
Ripple's (XRPUSD) price action has remained in a sideways trend after it closed at ~$0.92 on April 20, 2018. The sideways price action is identified in this analysis to be a combination (W-X-Y) Elliott wave structure with Minute wave ((x)) currently ongoing.
The implication of the above is that a Minute wave ((y)) should finish downwards as indicated by the red arrow on the 4hr tf chart for Ripple (XRPUSD) before XRPUSD can resume a sustainable bullish move.This analysis favors Ripple (XRPUSD) targeting between 38.2% and 50% ( i.e. ~$0.74 and $0.70) as the Support area because this lies in the region of technical support for Ripple which is between ~$0.71 and ~$0.74 as indicated by the horizontal black line.
Point of invalidation (POI) is placed just above the high of ~$0.97 reached on April 24, 2018. POI in this case is a price close above $0.99
EOS dropping to support?Looks like EOS is dropping to the support line before starting the final wave of the Elliott wave structure.
After this final wave we will probably see a big correction from the whole structure, potential sell area between 17500 and 20000.
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LTC correcting from Elliott wave structureLTC is currently correcting from the Elliott wave structure prob till 0.5 or 0.65 fib lvl and is forming a downward channel.
After correction I think we are going to see the 3th wave of the bigger Elliott wave structure that it is forming.
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Why We Look At Log Scale!For waves that occur over long periods of time looking at a normal arithmetic price scale lacks the ability to normalize exponential growth. Under these circumstances, by looking at the logarithmic scale we see a different perspective on how price has been moving. This also makes it easier to plot waves.
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Here's the analysis
on the largest scale, it seems to me that BTC just completed wave 3, which makes sense the growth was ridiculous during this wave
By that same token, our current correction seems relatively small in relation to the entire graph which still makes me believe that wave 4 is not yet completed
Finally, this also means that we will be beginning wave 5 upon completing our correction and ideally we should see another hefty move up
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*Warning*
IF this is right then when we finish this next wave we will have completed an entire 5 wave cycle and it would be followed by a massive correction
The Correction is just getting started
Starting from the last significant correction that BTC had, we moved up for over 2.5 years so my assumption is that a 4-month correction is relatively short. Instead, it wouldn't be absurd to assume that we are far from finishing this correction. With that being said in terms of Elliott waves, this correction has already retraced a significant portion of the move up making it unlikely that we are in a flat or triangle correction. The only thing left would be a zig zag correction which plays out as a (5-3-5). From what I can see we are nearing the end of wave 5 within A and B should be starting soon. In the chart, I have 2 possible end-points for wave 5 one of which is around 4500. Then by looking at the channel we have a decent idea of when this wave should finish playing out
Euro/Yen Bullish Triangle CorrectionAfter the bullish 5 wave pattern,
it looks a little bit like a
corrective triangle pattern
has begun to form.
D Wave.
With the completion of
a double top pattern
at the 136 zone,
the D wave of
the triangle pattern
will have met its
61.8% Fib Level requirement
along the triangle trendline.
E Wave
The location of the projected
61.8% retracement from the
D Wave endpoint seems logical
because that is where price
can be expected to run out of
momentum
Only time will tell
What Is Corn Up ToOn a bigger timeframe, it looks like we are forming a Contracting Triangle. These will generally have a .618 relationship with one pair of internal waves or more. Currently, we have already had the relationship occur once, meaning that it doesn't HAVE to happen again. However, assuming that it does we have a good idea of where things are headed. I Included another wave of a higher degree to give a better frame of reference as to where we are. Let me know what you guys think
XVGBTC - The verge Surge!Verge is exploding once more. The cause is an announcement to be made on April 17th. The golden rule of announcements calls: Buy
the rumour, sell the news.
Technical indicators on the 4 hour chart:
- Bullish MACD
- Bullish OBV, confirming buying volume
- Overbought RSI
I am showing the 30 minute chart because Verge is now consolidating in a perfect triangular pattern. Buy when this pattern is broken upwards.
Bitcoin #BTCUSD - the last chance for bulls?The previous impulsive scenario has been invalidated due to the wave (2) and wave (1) overlap. The current scenario is still bullish, but this look like a last chance for bulls to do their thing, otherwise the bears will push the market below $5,820 support in a no time.
One more leg up for a potential wave 4I see a last impulsive wave going down once the correction is finished.
Right now we have two clear waves making 3 curves.
Corrective target: 7140 to 7450 (0.236 & .382 fibos)
Two options:
A 5 wave structure to finish to make a 3-3-5 zig zag corrective pattern
or some side range action, triangles of 3-3-3-3.
ICON #ICX - there is something missing here...According to the newest Elliott Wave Analysis of this relatively interesting cryptocurrency is now rallying higher on a high volume, but there is still missing the fifth wave to the downside. When the last wave down is made, then there will be a potential for another leg up, but fore now cautious is advised on the way up.